diwali pick 2016mhfs.in/form/others/mf performance/2016/oct16/product... · 2018-03-09 · happy...
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Money Honey Financial Services Pvt. Ltd.Money Honey Financial Services Pvt. Ltd.1st Floor, Nahar Singh Industrial Building, Opp Movie Star Cinema,
Ram Mandir Road, Goregaon (W), Mumbai - 400104. : 773 803 2704. : [email protected]
A market correc�on is always around the corner following every mega run up, but that’s precisely what presents a great buying opportunity. Predic�ng an outright global ruin is invariably impossible but we may yet be in for a lot more trials by global Central Bankers before they acknowledge and arrest the excesses they have themselves created. As of now, the ECB and BOJ have con�nued with their easy monetary policies. The US Fed is yet again contempla�ng raising rates but their next move is anybody's guess. For all we know, they may be compelled to reverse their posi�on a�er 12-15 months. In any case, the Fed’s next rate hike, whether in December or early next year, is largely discounted in the current stock prices. Just like the previous hike, the next one may provoke a knee jerk reac�on post announcement. Di�o for the outcome of the US elec�on. Clinton or Trump, the market reac�on (posi�ve or nega�ve) will be necessarily short-lived.
With half of the developed world’s sovereign bond yields at below 1% (1/3rd bonds trade at nega�ve yields), the global cost of capital has touched historic lows. In an environment where posi�ve return is hard to come by, growth markets like India will command a premium valua�on. Likewise for the domes�c investor, India’s Fixed Income yields have come off significantly, not offering sizeable return anymore. Alternate investments like Property is fraught with risks of inventory pile-up and trust issues. Clearly, Equi�es offer a be�er alterna�ve. Indian equi�es (Ni�y) presently trade at around 17x FY18 EPS and the market will soon start factoring in FY19 es�mates as well.
Given the uncertain �mes we live in and the abysmal state of affairs in many regions across the globe, a moderate or conserva�ve investor may be jus�fied in reducing alloca�on to equity or in buying protec�on in the form of Dynamic Balanced Fund or Hybrid Conserva�ve Debt Fund or Gold. However, the case for bo�om-up inves�ng in equi�es yet remains strong. Even if assumed that the Ni�y were to deliver modest returns over the next one year, many broader market stock proposi�ons would s�ll do well. On the eve of the fes�ve season, we have handpicked nine of them.
Happy
Diwali
Happy
Diwali
Samvat 2073 – Heading towards New Highs
FIXED DEPOSIT | MUTUAL FUND | STOCKS | COMMODITY | INSURANCE | BONDS | IPO
DIWALI�PICK�2016DIWALI�PICK�2016DIWALI�PICK�2016
Money Honey Financial Services Pvt. Ltd.Money Honey Financial Services Pvt. Ltd.1st Floor, Nahar Singh Industrial Building, Opp Movie Star Cinema,
Ram Mandir Road, Goregaon (W), Mumbai - 400104. : 773 803 2704. : [email protected]
IDFC Classic FundNAV
Other Details
Returns (%)
Dividend 36.8293
Growth
AUM (Rs in crore)
Launch Date
Fund Manager
Since Launch
1Year
3Years
5Years
Bench Mark
14.8036
344
9-Aug-05
Anoop Bhaskar
12.32%
19.28%
17.97%
14.57%
S&P BSE 200
DSP BlackRock Opportuni�es Fund
NAV
Other Details
Returns (%)
Dividend 28.555
Growth
AUM (Rs in crore)
Launch Date
Fund Manager
Since Launch
1Year
3Years
5Years
Bench Mark
180.852
1,171
16-May-00
Rohit Singhania
19.24%
20.86%
25.09%
18.00%
Ni�y 500
ICICI Pruden�al TOP 100 Fund
NAV
Other Details
Returns (%)
Dividend 18.13
Growth
AUM (Rs in crore)
Launch Date
Fund Manager
Since Launch
1Year
3Years
5Years
Bench Mark
270.78
1,449
9-Jul-98
Sankaran Naren
19.74%
16.19%
18.46%
16.50%
Ni� 50
Franklin India Taxshield Fund
NAV
Other Details
Returns (%)
Dividend 44.9895
Growth
AUM (Rs in crore)
Launch Date
Fund Manager
Since Launch
1Year
3Years
5Years
Bench Mark
474.7443
2,391
10-Apr-99
R Janakiraman
24.59%
9.86%
25.23%
18.15%
Ni�y 500
MOSt Focused Long Term Fund
NAV
Other Details
Returns (%)
Dividend 13.6512
Growth
AUM (Rs in crore)
Launch Date
Fund Manager
Since Launch
1Year
3Years
5Years
Bench Mark
13.6512
194
15-Jan-15
Gautam Sinha Roy
19.13%
20.54%
-
-
Ni�y 500
IDFC Tax Advantage Fund
NAV
Other Details
Returns (%)
Dividend 15.5942
Growth
AUM (Rs in crore)
Launch Date
Fund Manager
Since Launch
1Year
3Years
5Years
Bench Mark
43.2561
475
26-Dec-08
Daylynn Gerard Paul Pinto
20.55%
12.03%
23.09%
18.22%
S&P BSE 200
HDFC Equity Fund
NAV
Other Details
Returns (%)
Dividend 53.462
Growth
AUM (Rs in crore)
Launch Date
Fund Manager
Since Launch
1Year
3Years
5Years
Bench Mark
517.928
15,857
1-Jan-95
Prashant Jain
19.82%
11.19%
23.07%
15.77%
Ni� 500
Mirae Asset Tax Saver Fund
NAV
Other Details
Returns (%)
Dividend 12.584
Growth
AUM (Rs in crore)
Launch Date
Fund Manager
Since Launch
1Year
3Years
5Years
Bench Mark
12.584
113
18-Dec-15
Neelesh Surana
25.84%
-
-
-
S&P BSE 200
Mirae Asset India Opportuni�es Fund
NAV
Other Details
Returns (%)
Dividend 17.737
Growth
AUM (Rs in crore)
Launch Date
Fund Manager
Since Launch
1Year
3Years
5Years
Bench Mark
37.702
2,291
4-Apr-08
Neelesh Surana
16.76%
13.82%
25.61%
19.66%
S&P BSE 200
DIWALI�PICK�2016DIWALI�PICK�2016DIWALI�PICK�2016
• Nega�ve yields reflec�ng weak global growth/infla�on outlook
• Developed country central banks struggling to get trac�on on monetary policy
Risks: Global instability
Date
Switzerland
Germany
Japan
France
Italy
Spain
United Kingdom
US
6M
-0.65
-0.62
-0.32
-0.58
-0.28
-0.28
0.14
0.50
1Y
-0.99
-0.61
-0.24
-0.58
-0.24
-0.22
0.12
0.56
3Y
-0.96
-0.65
-0.18
-0.56
-0.01
-0.06
0.12
0.90
5Y
-0.84
-0.51
-0.15
-0.39
0.26
0.16
0.24
1.19
10Y
-0.50
-0.05
-0.01
0.25
1.16
1.03
0.76
1.61
30Y
-0.05
0.54
0.49
1.02
2.23
2.16
1.38
2.32
Money Honey Financial Services Pvt. Ltd.Money Honey Financial Services Pvt. Ltd.1st Floor, Nahar Singh Industrial Building, Opp Movie Star Cinema,
Ram Mandir Road, Goregaon (W), Mumbai - 400104. : 773 803 2704. : [email protected]
Post Global recession
(2010)
Taper crisis (2013)
Current (Sep-16)
GDP*
CPI Infla�on
FX Reserves ($bn)
Fiscal deficit Target
Crude Oil (per barrel)
Current Account Deficit
8.5%
9.4%
297.3
-3.3%
-6.5%
$94
5.1%
9.5%
275.5
-4.7%
-4.8%
$116
7.1%
5.1%
370.8
0.1%
-3.5%
$48
India's macro condi�ons vastly improved
Key Government Scheme
Key objec�ves/Achievement Progress To boost manufacturing, reduce imports
Net FDI to India up by 67% over FY14 to FY16
Raise India's compe��veness at global level
Global rank improved four spots YoY to 130; Target 50
To i m p r o v e fi n a n c i a l a c c e s s , coverage
E ffi c i e n t d e l i v e r y o f g o v t . subsidies/benefits
2 4 1 m n o - f r i l l s b a n k a c co u nt s opened since Aug-15
To create broadband infrastructure at village level
Work on e-governance is progressing
To provide housing for all Indians by 2022
Project sanc�oning stage but limited progress yet
Make in India
Ease of business
PMJDY (Financial inclusion)
Digital India
Housing For All
Implementa�on gaining
momentum
Implementa�on gaining
momentum
Success with major objec�ves achieved
Entered implementa�on stage
Entered implementa�on stage
Reform momentum strong
Monetary policy losescredibility on sustained
double digit infla�on
New MonetaryPolicy Framework
Infla�on roadmap for RBI
Ini�al Target - 8%
Intermediate Target - 6%
Mar ‘17 Target - 5%
12%
11%
10%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
2012-14 2014-17 March 2017 onwards
Formal Infla�onTarget of
4% +/- 2%
RBI sets glide path for achievingsustained lower infla�on
Lower infla�on may lead to more rate cuts, aiding growth
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
(RE) (BE)Capex SubsidiesG
ov
t. E
xp
en
dit
ure
Subsidies v/s Government Capex
(% of GDP)
(as %
of
GD
P)
Fiscal spending orienta�on is shi�ing towards capex
Bu
dg
et
Fu
nd
ing
Big push to infrastructureinvestments
Roads Railways
In Rs . Bn
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16RE FY17BE
Source: Ambit Capital, CLSA Note: RE refers to revised es�mates and BE refers to Budget es�mates Nominal GDP for FY17 is assumed to grow at 11% YoY as men�oned in the FY17 union budget
Economic IndicatorsEconomic IndicatorsEconomic Indicators
Money Honey Financial Services Pvt. Ltd.Money Honey Financial Services Pvt. Ltd.1st Floor, Nahar Singh Industrial Building, Opp Movie Star Cinema,
Ram Mandir Road, Goregaon (W), Mumbai - 400104. : 773 803 2704. : [email protected]
84
82
80
78
84
74
72
70
68Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16
Capacity Utilization
Corporate Profits to GDP (%)
3.0
4.7
5.4
6.2
7.37.8
5.6
6.56.2
4.9 4.64.3
4.0 3.7
FY
03
FY
04
FY
05
FY
06
FY
07
FY
08
FY
09
FY
10
FY
11
FY
12
FY
13
FY
14
FY
15
FY
16
Unu�lized capacity hur�ng opera�ng margin
Corporate ROEs on the mend
Industrial capacity u�liza�on may be bo�oming
23 Nifty Best P/E
Nifty 50 Index Forward P/E
21
19
17
15
13
11
9
7Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12 Sep-14 Sep-16
Nifty Best P/B Average
6
4
2
0Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12 Sep-14 Sep-16
Nifty 50 Index Forward P/B
Valua�ons broadly reasonable
Economic Cycle away
from peak and is still in
recovery stage.
We expect further
value unlocking over
next 2 years
Time
Le
ve
l of re
al o
utp
ut
The Economic Cycle
We are here
Peak
Peak
Peak
Growth
Trend
Recession
Recession
Trough
Trough
Rec
over
y
Rec
over
y
We are here
Time
Le
vel o
f re
al o
utp
ut
The Economic Cycle
Economic Cycle away from peak and is s�ll in recovery stage.
We expect further value unlocking over next 2 years
Economic IndicatorsEconomic IndicatorsEconomic Indicators
Money Honey Financial Services Pvt. Ltd.Money Honey Financial Services Pvt. Ltd.1st Floor, Nahar Singh Industrial Building, Opp Movie Star Cinema,
Ram Mandir Road, Goregaon (W), Mumbai - 400104. : 773 803 2704. : [email protected]
1999-2002EarningsGrowth-1% pa
(-3.8% absolute)
2003-2007Earnings Growth
+24.7% pa(+201.5% absolute)
Nifty Returns5.4% pa
(23.5% absolute)
Nifty Returns41.0% pa
(458.5% absolute)
Nifty Returns14.1% pa
(151.6% absolute)
2008-2015Earnings Growth
+6.1% pa(+51.9% absolute)
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0Jan-99 Jan-02 Jan-05 Jan-08 Jan-11 Jan-14
Nifty Earnings Trend (Jan 1999 - December 2015)
Earnings tend to be cyclical linked to economy
Source: Bloomberg, Data from Dec'80 - Dec'15, Returns are compounded annualized. Data based on yearly rolling
21%
1 year 3 year 5 year 10 year 15 year
17%
26%
13%10%
NeverNever
17% 17% 15%
of the
of the
of the
times negative
times negative
times negative
The volatility reduces over time giving more
stabilized returns with lower probability of losses
negative negative
Rolling returns based on Sensex (1980 - 2015)
Benefits of long term investments
Disclaimer : All Mutual Fund Investments are subject to market risks, the above given informa�on is of the past performance of growth op�on of various equity mutual fund schemes, Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future, prospec�ve Investors are advised to read the Scheme Informa�on Document and Statement of Addi�onal Informa�on of the respec�ve mutual fund scheme before inves�ng. *Returns upto 1 year are absolute and over 1 year are annualize.
Economic IndicatorsEconomic IndicatorsEconomic Indicators