DNR Climate Change Efforts

Paul Dubuque, Keith Wendt, and John Almendinger

MNDNR

Climate-informed Forest Management Forum Grand Rapids, MN May 7-8, 2014

Outline

I. DNR Climate Policy Overview II. Adapting Silviculture and Timber Programs III. ECS tools and science-based information

Climate Change and Renewable Energy Team (CREST)

Purpose: Lead change and build agency capacity to implement climate-change mitigation and adaptation actions.

CREST

Steering Team (FOR; EWR; PAT; FAW;

OSD)

Climate Adaptation

Team

Carbon Sequestration

Team

Energy Efficiency

Team Biofuels Team

Integration Team

Milestone: DNR Staff Survey (2010) • Benchmark snapshot of staff knowledge & beliefs • Perceived obstacles: funding/staff, knowledge, leadership

direction

Milestone: Management Foundations (2011) • MN climate and energy: trends & impacts • Management response: large-scale strategies & case studies

Linking Strategic Direction to Operations

Climate change strategies: • what, • where, and • how much?

- Not an “add-on”, rather a “retooling” of existing work -

Team Progress (2012-2014)

Adaptation Team • Adaptation Strategies Project: forest; grassland; aquatic; and wetland

systems (2011-2012) • Regional Staff Climate Adaptation Workshops (June 2013) • Adaptation Strategy Guide (projected June 2014)

Carbon Sequestration Team • Incorporating forest carbon modeling into DNR forest planning (2014) • Evaluating DNR potential for generating revenue by selling carbon credits

(2014) • Participating in Climate Solutions and Economic Opportunities Project

(2014)

Team Progress (2012-2014)

Biofuels Team • Comprehensive revision of biomass policies in DNR’s Timber Sale and

Scale Manual (2012)

• DNR facilities identified for installing wood energy systems (2013-14) (Itasca and Sudan State Parks and DNR Tower Office)

• Statewide Wood Energy Team: A multi-stakeholder effort to support wood energy systems in MN ($250K grant) (2013)

Integration Team • Scoping Two Proposed Operational Orders:

1) Energy Efficiency and 2) Adaptation and Land-based Mitigation • Operational Orders will require:

1) Division specific guidance and 2) Scorecard for tracking agency progress

Forest & Climate Interactions

Invasive Species Pathogens

Extreme Weather

Tree Distribution, Productivity, Reproduction

Forest Composition, Structure, Function

Climate Warmer/longer growing season

Source: Fettig et al. J. of Forestry May 2013

Extreme Weather Events and Wildfire

1999 BWCA Blowdown damaged > 477,000 acres

Other blowdowns in 2005,2008,2011

2006-2011 Fires burned >200,000 acres

SAVING THE GREAT NORTH WOODS

“Across Minnesota, a determined counterattack is emerging against a looming threat to the northern forest — climate change”. Star Tribune Oct. 13, 2013

Forestry: A No-Regrets Strategy

Climate benefits and other significant co-benefits

Outline DNR Regional Workshop Forest Adaptation Strategies Work

• Opportunities • Constraints

ECS (Native Plant Community Systems) Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment Forest Information for Site Assessment Manitou Adaptive Forest Management Project Acknowledgements & Questions

2013 DNR Regional Workshop Forest Adaptation Strategies Work

HIGH RANKED OPPORTUNITIES (Operations Level): - Favor or restore native species that are expected to be better adapted to future conditions. (wider moisture, temp tolerances). - Maintain, enhance, or restore diversity of native forest species, including trees, shrubs, herbs following disturbance. - Increase genetic diversity of nursery stock or seed to provide those species of genotypes likely to succeed. - Promote diverse age classes. - Alter forest structure or composition to reduce risk or severity of fire and susceptibility to pests/disease, and invasive species. - Protect future-adapted regeneration from herbivory. - Use seeds, germplasm, and other genetic material from across a greater geographic range.

2013 DNR Regional Workshop Forest Adaptation Strategies Work

HIGH RANKED OPPORTUNITIES Strategic Level: - Restore fire to fire-adapted ecosystems. - Maintain and create habitat corridors, riparian areas through reforestation or restoration. - Establish and expand reserves and reserve networks to link habitats and protect key communities.

- Use Landscape-scale planning and partnerships to reduce fragmentation and enhance connectivity.

2013 DNR Regional Workshop Forest Adaptation Strategies Work

- Informational/Technical: lack of climate change adaptive strategies at field level; forest inventory, regeneration, stand development data don’t allow for the most effective monitoring of plan goals. - Economic: land status and rotation ages may influence the ability to maintain species and age class diversity. Extreme weather and natural disturbance events have significant impacts on human and natural resources. (e.g. staffing response, infrastructure, workloads, others.) - Cultural: getting climate change issues adequately addressed in landscape planning? How to balance regeneration strategies (e.g. natural regeneration in conifer types vs artificial planting, and seeding, nursery stock focus)? Deer populations - Political: Inadequate funding for TSI and intermediate stand treatments; prescribed fire has limited application across the landscape.

MANAGEMENT CONSTRAINTS:

Forestry Tools & Information MN DNR Ecological Classification System

Six Native Plant Community Systems with Commercial Tree Species

• Fire-dependent

Forest/Woodlands

• Mesic Hardwood Forests

• Floodplain Forests

• Wet Forests

• Forested Rich Peatlands

• Acid Peatlands

Forestry Tools & Information MN DNR NPC System Level

A basic understanding helps inform broad management options by knowing…

• Hydrologic and soil moisture

regime

• seasonal availability of

nutrients … nitrogen

• natural disturbance regimes

• commercial tree succession …

advance regeneration

• production and

decomposition

Upland

Wetland

Vulnerability

The degree to which... an ecosystem, resource, or species is susceptible to and unable to cope with adverse effects of climate change. (Adapted from IPCC 2007, Fussel and Klein 2006)

Vulnerability

Non-climate stressors

Exposure (to local climate changes) + Sensitivity (to the changes) - adaptive capacity = Vulnerability.

Forest System Vulnerabilities

NIACS Climate Change Response Framework • www.ForestAdaptation.org

Minnesota Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment • LMF Province

o NPC System level

• 3 modeling teams o Tree Atlas o Landis-II o PnET-CN

• Experts workshop • Results available

Host and Brown, NRRI

Forest System Vulnerabilities

Vulnerability – an assessment of the magnitude of risk

Forest System Vulnerabilities - Adaptive strategies implicit for managing FF, MH, FD Systems. - WF, FP,AP have higher risk, potentially greater negative impacts.

Forest Information for Site Assessment What’s available to the Forester?

1. Management Plan Direction & Goals

http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/forestry/subsection/index.html

2. GIS Spatial Data & DNR Partner Comments

3. MFRC Site Level Guidelines http://mn.gov/frc/documents/council/site-level/MFRC_Revised%20Forest%20Management%20Guidelines%20(2012).pdf

4. Forest Inventory Data

5. NPC Field Guides http://files.dnr.state.mn.us/publications/books/plantcommguide_orderform.pdf

6. NPC Worksheets, Mapping, and Factsheets http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/npc/index.html

7. Timber Plot “Cruise” Data

8. Field Observations!!

Forest Information for Site Assessment MN DNR Forest Inventory

Climate Change Considerations

Forest Inventory Stand Cover Types

Disturbance Regime Age?

Spatial Size of Unit 3-100’s acres (e.g. QA54 stand) relative to dominant tree species by age, size class

Trees Ranked by commercial volume, size class at time of inventory

Advanced Regeneration Ranked by abundance/occupancy at time of inventory

Vegetation Tree species

Soils & Hydrology Physiographic class estimate

Landscape Slope designation

Moisture/Nutrients N/A

I & D Estimate of tree species damage at time of

inventory

Forest Information for Site Assessment MN DNR NPC

Climate Change Considerations

ECS NPC Classes

Disturbance Regime NPC System (fire, wind, I & D, water), growth stage, ecological processes

Spatial Size of Unit 3-1000’s acres (e.g. FDn43) relative to disturbance regime

Trees Ranked by abundance/cover relative to disturbance regime.

Advanced Regeneration Ranked by abundance/cover relative to disturbance regime

Vegetation Trees, shrubs, forbs, ferns, grasses, etc.

Soils & Hydrology Soil texture, soil profile descriptions

Landscape Landforms, LTA units of hierarchy

Moisture/Nutrients NPC ranking 1 thru 9 Tree Suitability

I & D NPC System relative to disturbance regime, ecological processes

Forest Information for Site Assessment MN DNR NPC + Forest Inventory

Climate Change Considerations

ECS NPC Classes

Forest Inventory Stand Cover Types

Disturbance Regime NPC System (fire, wind, I & D, water), growth stage, ecological processes

Age?

Spatial Size of Unit 3-1000’s acres (e.g. FDn43) relative to disturbance regime

3-100’s acres (e.g. QA54 stand) relative to dominant tree species by age, size class

Trees Ranked by abundance/cover relative to disturbance regime.

Ranked by commercial volume, size class at time of inventory

Advanced Regeneration Ranked by abundance/cover relative to disturbance regime

Ranked by abundance/occupancy at time of inventory

Vegetation Trees, shrubs, forbs, ferns, grasses, etc.

Tree species

Soils & Hydrology Soil texture, soil profile descriptions

Physiographic class estimate

Landscape Landforms, LTA units of hierarchy

Slope designation

Moisture/Nutrients NPC ranking 1 thru 9 Tree Suitability

N/A

I & D NPC System relative to disturbance regime, ecological processes

Estimate of tree species damage at time of

inventory

Forest Information for Site Assessment

Why ECS and Forest Inventory should be considered together when visiting stands and writing prescriptions?

Because cover-type and stand age do not

specifically address:

The suitability and competitive ability of all tree species – present or not. Tree succession and advance regeneration. Soil conditions that affect equipment operability and indicate hydrology. Competition at regeneration and mid-canopy stages. Natural disturbance regimes that can serve as models for selecting appropriate silvicultural systems. Suitable seed zones for nursery stock.

These factors become increasingly important with a changing climate

Forestry Information for Site Assessment MN DNR Silviculture Program

Adding ECS Floristic Region to Regeneration Standards

Jack Pine Floristic Region

Growing seasons since initiation 1 3 5 6 8 10

Northern Planting Standards Check 500-600 JP TPA 75% JP Stocking

(1/100th ac. plots)

Seeding Standards Check 500-600 JP TPA 75% JP Stocking

(1/100th ac. plots)

Planting Survey Recommended

Planting Standards

Check 400-600 JP TPA

Seeding Survey Recommended

Planting Standards

Check 400-500 Crop TPA

75 % of plots are FTG

Seeding Standards

Check 400-500 Crop

TPA 75 % of plots

are FTG

Central Planting Standards Check 400-500 JP TPA 75% JP Stocking

(1/100th ac. plots)

Seeding Standards Check 250-500 JP TPA 60% JP Stocking

(1/250th ac. plots) Planting Survey Recommended

Planting Standards

Check 300-500 Crop

TPA

Seeding Standards

Check 300-500 Crop

TPA

Planting Standards

Check 300-500 Crop

TPA 75 % of plots

are FTG

Seeding Standards

Check 300-500 Crop

TPA 75 % of plots

are FTG

Why is this important?

Forest Information for Site Assessment MN DNR Silviculture Program

These have implications for a changing climate on: 1. Silvicultural approaches to regeneration

2. Timber productivity 3. Regional insect & disease problems

Because field observations and monitoring of jack pine in floristic regions show differences in …

Forest Information for Site Assessment Linking ECS to Timber Sale Operations

Soil Operability Table + DNR Forestry Rutting Standards together help minimize site damage. Allows foresters an indirect way to verify frozen or dry, non-frozen harvest timber sales. Not perfect system, but allows for additional file documentation.

Forest Information for Site Assessment

Additional ECS Products Available for Foresters Tree Suitability Tables (select crop trees, evaluate missing species, non-commercial, quantify post treatment success or failure, anticipate competition given choice of crop tree, evaluate species options for a warming, drying climate. See Handout

Silvicultural Interpretations (provide stand level considerations for regeneration, site limitations (e.g. watch-outs), and, other prescription / sale design elements). New version and templates being considered. http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/forestry/ecs_silv/interpretations.html

Adaptive Forest Management Patch Project FDn43 – Finland, MN

- Large multi block timber sale - regenerate more than 70% of the NPC within the patch area to a young vegetative growth stage – School Trust - Retain biological legacies that contain: wildlife species of concern; sensitive plant communities; older growth stages; and advanced regeneration of white cedar. - Stand treatments include natural / artificial seeding and planting, timber stand improvement (e.g. weeding, release, and protection) and future timber harvest to achieve desired characteristics. DFC: (50-100 yrs), a multi aged mixed conifer –hardwood forest where natural regeneration of new cohorts can self-replace after logging or other management activities.

Adaptive Forest Management Patch Project FDn43 – Finland, MN

Natural Stand Dynamics Timber harvest and site prep treatments emulate “fire disturbance”. Regenerate and favor portions

of the patch toward aspen, birch, pine, spruce. Transition other portions of the patch to older growth stages and favor spruce, balsam fir, maple, cedar, yellow birch.

IMPLEMENT ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT AS CONDITIONS AND MARKETS CHANGE!!

Adaptive Forest Management Patch Project - Tree Suitability

Post-harvest small-med gap regeneration of spruce, white pine, cedar, aspen, paper birch, red maple, balsam fir, yellow birch

Species Crop Tree Tree Suitability Rank wd

WS Excellent 7

WP Excellent 2wd

WC Excellent 5

QA Excellent 3wd

PB Excellent 1wd

BF Excellent 6

RM Good 8wd

YB ?? ??

Adaptive Forest Management Patch Project - Tree Suitability

Post-harvest large gap regeneration of spruce, white pine, cedar, aspen, paper birch, red maple, balsam fir, Norway pine

Species Crop Tree Tree Suitability Rank wd

WS Excellent 7

WP Excellent 2wd

WC Excellent 5

QA Excellent 3wd

PB Excellent 1wd

BF Excellent 6

NP Excellent 4d

RM Good 8wd

Adaptive Forest Management Patch Project – Monitoring (TNC + DNR)

Conservation Objectives Ecological Attributes/Indicators

Climate Change Adaptation Strategy

Increase structural diversity in early-mid-seral VGSs

a) Coarse woody debris (CWD) decay class, volume and % cover b) Snag basal area and density c) Structural complexity index (H’)

Structural Diversity

Maintain characteristic species diversity within VGSs Increase regeneration of long lived conifers and hardwoods in younger VGSs

a) Species density/basal area within Vegetation Growth Stage (VGS) b) Species density in seedling/sapling layers

Species Diversity. Favor or restore native species that are expected to be better adapted to future conditions. (wider moisture, temp tolerances – Portion of Block B is part of TNC Adaptation Forestry Project in NE MN).

Limit the impact of invasive plant species

a) Cover/presence of native species b) Cover/presence of invasive species

Reduce risk, severity, and susceptibility to pests/disease, and invasive species.

Acknowledgments MN DNR Climate Change Adaptation Team Members –Andy Holdsworthy, Mike Larson. MN DNR ECS Program & Staff “The Foundations of Silvilculture” The Nature Conservancy, Mark White,Chris Dunham Duluth, MN Manitou Collaborative Members (USFS, TNC, MN DNR, Lake County, Wolf-Ridge ELC, Others)

Questions? “Ecology is of fundamental importance to the forester because it brings true scientific attitude to the multitudinous problems bearing upon the origin and development of forests…” “The most comprehensive study of environmental factors by the forester leads to nothing useful, unless the forest vegetation itself is interpreted in harmony with them.” - J. W. Toumey, Professor of Silviculture, Yale University 1928