do food cravings drive restaurant visits? · 10.0 10.2 10.2 7.1 3.7 2.7 18.9 14.8 9.7 9.7 9.6 5.8...

Copyright 2015. The NPD Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

This presentation is proprietary and confidential and may not be

disclosed in any manner, in whole or in part, to any third party

without the express written consent of NPD.

Do Food Cravings Drive Restaurant Visits?

January, 2016

The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and confidential

The image should fill up the entire space of the gray box,

no gray should be seen

� Data Sources – Brief Overview

– CREST data

– Custom NFI Study

� Seafood Entrée trends in Commercial restaurants

– Restaurant performance that is important to Seafood consumption

� Understanding Crave-ability

– Foundation for Craving

– What Consumers Crave

� Opportunities for Seafood

My Agenda

2

The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and confidential3

That is what we’re doing everyday…

Talking with consumers


What they ate and drank

Where they ate and drank

When they ate and drank

With whom they ate and drank

How much they paid

CREST measures yesterday’s consumer behavior at restaurants

The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and confidential 5

The CREST® survey- example


And then, an extensive food/beverage list is given

for each food/beverage group checked

CREST® Survey example:

What Types of Food Were Purchased?




NPD’s definition of Seafood Entrees

7

TOTAL SEAFOOD ENTREES

Fish-Broiled/Baked/Grilled/Raw

Salmon

All Other Fin Fish

Sushi

Fried Fish

Shellfish-Total

Shrimp

Crab

Clams

Lobster

Scallops

All Other Shellfish

All Other Seafood

Calamari

Other

Note: Definition excludes Seafood Sandwiches

Source: CREST®


QSR

Midscale

Casual Dining

How is the industry segmented?How NPD segments the restaurant industry

Midscale + Casual Dining + Fine Dining = Full Service


Restaurant Trends


208 208 208

201

197 195 194

193 191 190

$6.09

$7.22

YE

Sep'06

YE

Sep'07

YE

Sep'08

YE

Sep'09

YE

Sep'10

YE

Sep'11

YE

Sep'12

YE

Sep'13

YE

Sep'14

YE

Sep'15

Restaurant Visits per Capita Average Eater Check

Source: CREST®

U.S. consumers visit restaurants 18 fewer times per year compared to before the Recession. Checks increased steadily

10

Visits per Capita

Great Recession


76% 79%

24% 21%

YE Sep'08 YE Sep'15

QSR FSR

Full-service struggled more since recession, bad news for products like seafood that rely on the segment

11

Quick-Service vs Full-Service

Loss of over 2

billion visits

Gain of over

750M visits

Distribution of Restaurant Traffic

20%

80%

Distribution of Seafood

Servings

QSR

FSR

Source: CREST®

Year End Sept’15


Seafood servings declined this year despite traffic growth; only gain occurred at Fine Dining

-1%

1%

-4%

1%

-1%-2%

-1% -1%

6%

0%

Seafood Traffic

Total Restaurants

QSR

Midscale

Casual Dining

Fine Dining

Percent Change vs. Year Ago

Trends by Restaurant Segment

Source: CREST®

Year End Sept’15


317

27

34

70

49

Seafood Traffic

Dinner

Lunch

Other

Dinner is most important for Seafood, outpacing traffic; room for improvement at Lunch

13

Daypart Comparison - FSR

Distribution of Servings/Traffic at Full-Service and PCYA

-2%

-1%

-2%

+1%

Source: CREST®

Year End Sept’15


2,392

1,872

1,595

1,230

1,229

1,218

1,024

997

730

573

420

309

136

Seafood

Chicken/Turkey

Sandwiches

Pasta

Beef Entrees

Mexican Fare

Chinese/Asian/Indian

Burgers

Main Dish Salads

Pizza

Ham/Pork

BBQ Ribs

Vegetarian Main Dish

FSREntrée Servings (Millions)

14

Seafood tops second-ranked poultry by over 500 million more

servings!

Entrées at FSR

Source: CREST®

Year End Sept’15


Several entrées declined, including Seafood; Burgers were only type that increased

19.8

15.7

10.0 10.2 10.2

7.1

3.72.7

18.9

14.8

9.7 9.7 9.6

5.8

3.32.4

Seafood Chicken/Turkey Pasta Beef Entrees Mexican Fare Main Dish Salads Ham/Pork BBQ Ribs

2010 2015

15

Menu Importance

Percent of Time Ordered - FSR

Source: CREST® / Years ending Sept.

12.8

8.2 7.4

4.4

1.1

12.6

8.1 7.9

4.5

1.1

Sandwiches Chinese/Asian/Indian Burgers Pizza Vegetarian Main Dish

2010 2015

Declining

Flat/Growing

Entrées at FSR – Long-term Trends


Crave-ability

16

Today’s Consumer


• More often than not, the decision to go out to eat is driven by a CRAVING, which in turn drives establishment choice.

• The idea of going and spending your hard earned money at a restaurant can be a tough decision– getting a meal you know you will LOVE eases this unknown.

17

Cravings are a major driver when choosing a restaurant.


18%

14%

11%

10%

7%

5%

Convenient Location

Taste, Craving/Specific Menu Item

I Like It There

Other's Choice/I Didn't Decide

Always/Regularly Go There

Good Price

Reason For Visiting – Share of Visits

18

Understanding consumers’ cravings is important because crave-ability is the number two reason for visiting a restaurant, second only to location

Total Restaurants

Source: CREST®

Year End Sept’15


Reason For Visiting by Age – Crave-ability

12%13%

14% 15% 15% 14%13%

15%

Teens 18-24 25-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Males Females

Crave-ability does not discriminate; aside from teens,

it does not vary by age or gender

19

% Reason for Visit = Had Special Taste/Craving or Went for Specific Menu Item

Total Restaurants

Source: CREST®

Year End Sept’15


18%

14%

11%

10%

7%

Convenient Location

Taste, Craving/Specific

Menu Item

I Like It There

Other's Choice/I Didn't

Decide

Always/Regularly Go

There

Reason For Visiting – Share of Visits

20

Crave-ability is top reason for visiting at Seafood restaurants!

20%

19%

10%

8%

7%

Taste, Craving/Specific

Menu Item

Other's Choice/I Didn't

Decide

I Like It There

Convenient Location

Had a Coupon

Total Restaurants Seafood Restaurants*

*QSR+FSR

Source: CREST®

Year End Sept’15


…So, we know cravings are important for Seafood…

What can we learn about consumer cravings?


Study Methodology

INTERACTIVE ONLINE FOCUS GROUP

DEC 15-18, 2015

CR

ITE

RIA

23 RESPONDENTS

Has ordered seafood

at a restaurant in the

past 12 months

Visits Casual Dining

restaurants every 3

months or more

Ages 18-64

50%

Female

50%

Male


Foundation of CravingsCravings are built upon the ability to recall and repeat a sensory experience.

RECALLBASED ON

FAMILIARITY

23

IMPLICATIONS FOR SEAFOOD

IMPLICATIONS FOR SEAFOOD

REPEATABLEBASED ON

CONSISTENCY

FOUNDATION


Key Findings: How To Improve Crave-ability


Be Predictable

25

Offering a consistent experience is critical to creating cravings. One of the biggest barriers to craving seafood is that consumers don’t always know what experience they’re going to get.

Inconsistency can make Seafood too risky to be a real craving – the chance of being disappointed is too high.

BECOME MORE PREDICTABLE & CONSISTENTPREDICTABILITY

CONSISTENCY

&


FRESHNESS

26

By combining other highly cravable characteristics with the innate freshness of Seafood, a uniquely cravable experience may be created.

One of Seafood’s greatest challenges is also one of it’s greatest strengths: freshness.

Seafood is one of the only proteins that can be, without other ingredients, described as “fresh.” Many consumers crave a fresh food experience.

FRESH + MEATYSPICYSALTY

FRESH

MEATY

SPICY

SALTY

+

Leverage Fresh


This might be done by combining both known and unknown in one dish (fried and spicy) or by offering a few different preparations (trusted as well as adventurous) on a single plate.

CREATE CRAVABLE TWISTS ON TRADITIONAL SEAFOOD BY COMBINING:

BUTTERY

FRIED

FRESH

MEATY

SPICY

+

FRESH

MEATY

SPICY

BUTTERY

FRIED

COMBINE THE KNOWN WITH THE UNKNOWN TO LEVERAGE CRAVINGS AND REDUCE THE RISK OF DISAPPOINTMENT.

Cravable Twists on Traditional Seafood


Many crave Sushi as it’s very tasty and unique yet difficult/inconvenient to prepare at home

Sushi blends many flavors, temperatures, and textures while meeting one’s craving for freshness. Other Seafood meals that can do this may see similar cravability

The only real downside to Sushi is the cost – creating more affordable ways to satisfy the same cravings may be an opportunity

Steal From the Strength of Sushi


How We Came To These Conclusions


Favorite and cravable foods tend to be rich, fatty/fried, and protein-heavy.

FAVORITEFOODS

FATTY/FRIED

MEATYSTEAK

LOBSTER

PIZZA

PASTA

ITALIAN

CRAB LEGS

SHRIMP

FRESH

CRISPY

SPICY RICH

COMFORTING SALTY

CRAVINGSCOMMON

UN

AID

ED


MY DIET SUGGESTS I AVOID THIS FOOD, BUT I CHOOSE TO SATISFY MY CRAVING

ANYWAY.

CRAVINGS AREN’T LOGICAL – THEY ARE ALMOST NEVER HEALTHY AND AREN’T OFTEN SCHEDULED AROUND DINING WITH OTHERS.

31

Cravings themselves are free from the influence of reason and logic.

I’VE BEEN THINKING ABOUT THIS DISH ALL DAY LONG, SO I CHOOSE TO DINE OUT TO

SATISFY MY CRAVING.

Q: Here is a list of other reasons you might choose/not choose to satisfy a craving when dining out. How often does each of the following statements apply to you? [Frequently, occasionally, rarely, never]

I WANT TO REWARD MYSELF, SO I CHOOSE TO SATISFY MY CRAVING.

I KNOW THIS DISH IS NOT THE HEALTHIEST OPTION, BUT I CHOOSE TO DINE OUT TO

SATISFY MY CRAVING ANYWAY.

I DON’T KNOW HOW TO REPLICATE THIS DISH AT HOME, SO I CHOOSE TO DINE OUT

TO SATISFY MY CRAVING INSTEAD.


CRAVINGS ARE STRONGLY DICTATED BY EXPERIENCE – THE MORE SOMETHING CAN CREATE THE SENSATIONS OF ACTUALLY EATING THE FOOD, THE MORE LIKELY IT IS TO INSPIRE A CRAVING.

32

Cravings are dictated by the sensory experience.

RE

AS

ON

ST

OC

RA

VE LOVED IT BEFORE AND CAME BACK FOR MORE

FRIEND/FAMILY INFLUENCED ME

FOOD PHOTOGRAPHY (PINTEREST/BLOGGERS)

READ THE MENU ONLINE BEFORE I WENT

SMELLED SOMETHING GOOD WHEN I WAS WALKING BY

HEARD ABOUT/SAW A FLAVOR/PREPARATION I HAD NEVER TRIED BEFORE

ADVERTISING

ONLINE REVIEWS (YELP!, GOOGLE, URBANSPOON, ETC.)

TO

PB

OT

TO

MM

ID

Q: Take a look at the following reasons you might crave a restaurant food. Please drag and drop these into order from the most likely reason for you to crave a food (at the top) to the least likely reason for you to crave a food (at the bottom).


Cravings have a number of forms, from flavors to feelings they invoke

TASTES

SWEET

SPICY

SALTY

TEMPERATURE

HOT

WARM

COLD

INGREDIENTS

COMFORTING

HEALTHY

TEXTURES

CRUNCHY

GREASY

PREPARATIONS

FRIED

GRILLED

EFFECT

CHEESY

MEATY

CARB-Y

SALAD

UNAIDED


When aided, “meaty” and “fresh” are the most frequently craved categories.

RARELY/NEVER SOMETIMES ALWAYS/OFTEN

FREQUENCY OF CRAVING WHEN DINING OUT (TOP BOX)

MEATY

SPICY

RICH/CREAMY

CRISP

CRUNCHY

SALTY

CHEESY

BUTTERY

FRIED

FRESH


Protein is the most craved food group, followed distantly by carbohydrates.

FOOD GROUP MOST OFTEN CRAVED

PROTEIN

CARBS

VE

GG

IES

73%

BREAD

PASTA

BEEF

FISH

CHICKEN

23%

5%

OTHER

50%

50%

47%

23%

20%

7%


Cuisines can also be craved, though they are less top-of-mind than other categories.

01

02

03

04

MEXICAN

05

SUSHI

CHINESEITALIAN

THAI

JAPANESEETHIOPIAN

TIE

RT

IER

TIE

RT

IER

TIE

R

CU

ISIN

ES

CR

AV

ED

(A

IDE

D –

TO

P 2

BO

X)

AMERICAN

CHINESE

MEXICAN

ITALIAN

BBQ

JAPANESE

47%

31%

27%

22%

22%

13%


For those who do crave Seafood, the type craved varies widely.

OYSTERS, MUSSELS, CLAMS

CRAB LEGS, CRAB CAKES

MAHI, TROUT

CALAMARI, SHRIMP, CLAMS, FISH FRY

ALFREDO, PRIMAVERA, SCAMPI

RESPONDENT PROVIDED

IMAGES


When aided, each Seafood fits within the four factors as follows:

• Flounder

• Mussels

• Orange Roughy

• Bass

• Grouper

• Mahi mahi

• Tuna

• Tilapia

CRAVABILITY

FIT

WIT

H S

EA

FO

OD

• Lobster

• Crab

• Shrimp

• Clams

• Catfish

• Oysters

• Tilapia

• Orange Roughy

• Sushi

• Oysters

• Mussels

• Salmon

• Catfish

• Flounder

• Bass

• Swordfish

• Orange Roughy

• Snapper

• Grouper

• Mahi mahi

• Tilapia

• Tuna

STEAMED SHELLFISH

FRIED OR BRINY

RAW

OR SIMPLY PREPARED

SAUCE & RICH FISH


Seafood is cravable, though a number of variable factors increase consumer feeling “risk.”

WHILE SEAFOOD IS CRAVE-ABLE, IT HAS BARRIERS.

SEAFOOD PRESENTS A GREATER RISK LEVEL DUE TO SEVERAL FACTORS:

Some will not even

consider seafood if they

aren’t near the coast.

GEOGRAPHY & FRESHNESS

Excellent preparation is key

to enjoying Seafood, yet is

more difficult to guarantee.

For example, consumers

perceive that one is more

likely to get a good Burger

than a good Lobster Tail.

CONSISTENCY

Those with a lower risk

tolerance often eliminate

Seafood due to the high

cost coupled with the

high risk of a poor or

mediocre meal.

COST


Seafood cravability is highly driven by familiarity and perceived “risk.”

LOW FAMILIARITY HIGH FAMILIARITY

• Offer a consistent taste (less “fishy”)

and have a great texture (not slimy, more

chewy/meaty)

• Preparations vary highly (from raw

to simple to complex) making it so there is

something for everyone

FAMILIAR SHELLFISH ARE HIGHLY CRAVABLE, (E.G., SUSHI)

• Those who enjoy them do so with gusto, but fish is polarizing overall.

Salmon seems to be the exception, though it’s less cravable than shellfish

• Many think of fish as “boring” or “plain.” Even a great sauce or

preparation doesn’t seem to justify craving these foods.

MODERATELY FAMILIAR FISH ARE ONLY MODERATELY CRAVABLE

• These seem as though they are not worth the risk.

There is a high likelihood that they

won’t like the dish (especially those that

don’t crave even familiar fish).

LESS FAMILIAR FISH ARE RARELY CRAVED




� Be Predictable

– Seafood needs to offer a more consistent experience – from quality to preparation

� Leverage Fresh

– Huge opportunity given the inherent nature of Seafood if executed correctly

� Crave-able Twists on Traditional Seafood

– Leverage trends with Fried Fish to build on the familiar with unique flavor combinations

� Steal from the Strength of Sushi

– Sushi is the most crave-able of Seafoods. Work to increase sushi availability

The Bottom Line: Building Seafood Crave-ability

41


THANK YOU!

QUESTIONS?

[email protected]

[email protected]

42

do food cravings drive restaurant visits? · 10.0 10.2 10.2 7.1 3.7 2.7 18.9 14.8 9.7 9.7 9.6 5.8...

Documents