do we need biodiversity to alleviate poverty? · nile perch over-fishing mali - koutiala...
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An exploration
Do we needbiodiversity toalleviate poverty?
PBL
Ben ten Brink
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Do we need biodiversity to alleviate poverty?
1. What says literature?2. Our vision and hypothesis3. 11 cases studies and test4. Results
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poor rich
high
low
Well-being
Biod
iver
sity
a
e
d
c
b
f
1. What says the literature?
What is actually happening?
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MSA
HDI
Human development & biodiversity
inversely related over time ?
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Klein Goldwijk et al., 2008
2. Our vision & hypothesis A brief history of man
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3000 BCLand use in the past
crop
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0 ADLand use in the past
crop
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1000 ADLand use in the past
crop
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1700 ADLand use in the past
crop
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1800 ADLand use in the past
crop
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1900 ADLand use in the past
crop
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1950 ADLand use in the past
crop
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2000 ADLand use in the past
crop
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cityroad
Water basin National Park
timberplantation
cropsgolfShrimp
farm
Energy cropcattle
How do biodiversity and G&S relate?
We parcelate the world
‘Fight for the photons’
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Most goods down-under
food, fiber, fuelwood, freshwaterC-sequestration, soil formation, flood contr
fish, meat, pollination
water purification, nutrient recycling
aesthetic, recreational, educationalcultural identity (shifting baseline)
disease regulation
5
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2
1
-1-2-3-4
Trophic level
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intensiveextensivenatural
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intensiveextensivenatural
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intensiveextensivenatural
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intensiveextensivenatural
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intensiveextensivenatural
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time
The gradual intensification of human use: parcelation
intensiveextensivenatural
Hunter & gathers Self-subsistence Western
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intensiveextensivenatural
Hunter & gathers Self-subsistence
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biodiversity
poor rich
Hypothesis
Win-lose
Lose-lose
1st interval
2nd interval
Critical level
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3. 11 Case studies & test to hypothesisCase study
ountry & region Research team Ecosystem Production
sector/s Theme / focus
Brazil - Cerrado
AIDEnvironment Savanna Export oriented commodity development.
Forest conversion by soy expansion
Indonesia - Kalimantan
AIDEnvironment Tropical forest Export oriented commodity development.
Palm oil development
Costa Rica - Hojancha
CATIE Tropical forest Forestry Reforestation and Payments for Environmental Services.
Ecuador - Cotopaxi
Ecociencia Mountain Crop and livestock agric.
Smallholder farming system
Ghana - Coast
UBC Marine Fishery Subsistence and industrial fishing
Kenya - Lake Victoria
KWS, Maxillion Univerisity
Freshwater Fishery and lakeshore agric.
Nile perch over-fishing
Mali - Koutiala
Struif-Bont-kes & AIDE
Savanna Irrigated crop and livestock agric.
Cash crop development
Mexico - Chiapas
CIMMyT and ECOSUR
Tropical forest Crop and livestock agric.
Subsidised maize and bean system
Nicaragua - Chontales
UCA-ADAA Tropical forest Extensive livestock production of smallholders.
Expansion of agricultural frontier
0. Vietnam - Dakrong D.
CRES Tropical forest Crop and livestock agric.
Slash and burn system broken down
. Vietnam - Giao Thuy D.
CRES Marine and coastal
Fishery and aquaculture
Privatization, protection and overexploitation of the commoms
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Indicators used of biodiversity & poverty
Biodiversity:– MSA, Species trend indices, Marine trophic index,
area with original biodiv,
Poverty: – poverty rate, poverty headcount, stunting, child
mortality, HPI,
Goods: – ha, productivity, GDP
Human wellbeing: – HDI, average farm income, GINI
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Ecosystem
Economic system
Social system
FertilityBrittleness
State (MSA)Extent
Size biological assetsSize mineral assets
Market integrationMarket demandProfitability main commodityValue added prim/sec processingPower concentration market chain
Population density & growth
Income redistribution/equalityCorruption & accountability
Law & enforcement
Political stability/violenceGovernance effectivenessEconomic policiesConservation policiesSkills inhabitantsInstitutional capacity
Causal factors (candidate determinants)34 candidate determinants
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poor rich
high
low
Well-being
Bio
dive
rsity
Brazil
Costa Rica
EcuadorIndonesia
MaliMexico
NicaraguaVietnam mangrove
Vietnam shifting cultivation
GhanaKenya
4. Results at first glance
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Kenya
Costa Rica
Netherlands
Brasil
Mexico
EcuadorIndonesia
Mali
NicaraguaVietnam upland
Vietnam MangroveGhana fisheries
Poor Rich
At 1st glance
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Kenya
Costa Rica
Netherlands
BrasilMexico
Ecuador IndonesiaMali
Nicaragua
Vietnam uplandVietnam Mangrove
Ghana fisheries
Poor Rich
Masking factors• population change • subsidies• source depletion• footprint• inequality• market collaps
At 2nd glance
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Kenya
Costa Rica
Netherlands
BrasilMexico
Ecuador IndonesiaMali
Nicaragua
Vietnam uplandVietnam Mangrove
Ghana fisheries
Poor Rich
subs
idie
ssu
bsid
ies
subs
idies
footp
rint
Foot
prin
t &in
puts
subsidiessubsidiessubsidiessubsidies
subsidiesim
migation
subsidies
emigation
neutral - lose
subsidies
depletion
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Key question: How to avoid lose-lose?
Relationship biodiversity – G&S
?
Brittle ecosystems•Dry•Cold/hot•Poor soils•Sloops•Mineral / biotic assets
Vulnerable societies•High pop growth•High poverty•No skills•No technics&inputs•No institutions•No enforcement•No owners•Low cost area•Conflict
Vulnerable economies• no access to market•……………………•…………………..
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Our conclusion
Biodiversity and poverty alleviation inversally related
In 2050 4x bigger economy, technical but also ethical issue
Win – lose regular development
lose – lose if not managed well
Win – win does not exist (Kuznets curve)
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Do we see ‘typical’ mechanisms?
• Poverty driven (group1) – low natural assets/capital, market integration, skills,
ecosystem management, high population growth (lose-lose).
• Capital driven (group 2)– The opposite as poverty driven. (win-lose).
• Policy driven (group 3)– Policies on intensification, expansion, diversification and
nature conservation influence win-lose and lose-lose outcomes into other forms, such as the win-win or neutral-neutral (Costa Rica and Mexico). Limitation by budgets & ecosystem features (fertility,
brittleness).
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Thank you