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DOCKETED
Docket Number: 17-IEPR-07
Project Title: Integrated Resource Planning
TN #: 217132
Document Title: Global EV trends and forecast
Description: 4.18.17 Presentation by Alejandro Zamorano of Bloomberg
Filer: Raquel Kravitz
Organization: Bloomberg
Submitter Role: Public
Submission Date: 4/17/2017 4:45:58 PM
Docketed Date: 4/17/2017
Global EV trends and forecastIEPR workshop on Light Duty Vehicle
Transportation Electrification
Alejandro Zamorano
April 18, 2017
1 April 18, 2017
2017 forecast
Agenda
Drivers of transport electrification: the role of mobility
2 April 18, 2017
North America selected EV model sales, Q1,Q2 2015 – 2016 (thousand units, % change)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, automakers, vehicles registration agencies
Chevrolet
Volt
Tesla
Model S
Tesla
Model X
Nissan
Leaf
Ford Fusion
Energi
Ford C-max
Energi
Toyota
Prius Prime
BMW
i3
Q4 2016 (units) 9,338 8,825 6,485 5,058 4,309 2,635 2,422 1,947
Q3–Q4 2016 (%) 20% -10% 0% 29% -3% 20% -35%
Q4 ’15 – Q4 ’16 (%) 39% -6% 26% 50% 36% -40%
2016 (units) 28,208 32,037 20,148 15,381 16,055 8,140 2,422 8,081
2015 – 16 (%) 67% 11% -17% 64% 5% -30%
3 April 18, 2017
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Global EV sales, 2012 – 2017e (thousand units)
36
114
283378
3066
96
182
209
275
5696
116
115
158
240
2729
32
23
21
25
23
122206
288
448
695
962
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
China Europe US Japan Canada Korea RoW
+39%+56%+40%+69%+135% +55%Cumulative global EV sales
hit one million in Q4 2015
We expect the next million
to be hit by Q2 2017
16 13 22 31 48 3667 72
107
23
85118
152
20 24 2329 37
40 37
6849
47 49
64
55
63
69
88
2232 32
30 2330 28
33
27
3745
49
48
57
64
71
5969 76 84 83
99108
158
127
160176
232
145
222
268
328
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2014 2015 2016 2017
China Europe US Canada Japan Korea RoW
2017 total: 962 thousand unitsRegional 2017 totals:
APAC - 426k unitsAMER - 259k unitsEurope - 275k unitsRoW - 2k units
4 April 18, 2017
Japanese EV sales dropped 12% year-
on year. Driven by: shrinking market,
restricted model availability.
North America EV sales up 39% year-on
year. Driven by: refreshed versions of
current models. Welcomed change from
2015. Fuel prices and consumers awaiting
longer range BEVs inhibiting broader
uptake.
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
EV sales trends – Changing growth patterns
Europe: up 15% year-on-year Driven by:
Strong policy support in: Norway, UK, France.
Germany recently introduced incentives. But
growth is slowing from last 18 months.
China EV sales up 148% year-on-year.
Driven by: strong domestic policy support,
new models and strong growth in BEVs.
Looking Up Moving sideways
North America Europe China Japan
Q3 – Q4
2016
Q4 ’15 – Q4
’16
Q3 – Q4
2016
Q4 ’15 – Q4
’16
Q3 – Q4
2016
Q4 ’15 – Q4
’16
Q3 – Q4
2016
Q4 ’15 – Q4
’16
EV sales 8% 47% 29% -6% 48% 122% 18% -12%
5 April 18, 2017
2016 end of year update
Agenda
Drivers of transport electrification: the role of mobility
6 April 18, 2017
drivers
1 Technology development
2 Mobility
7 April 18, 2017
drivers
1 Technology development
2 Mobility
8 April 18, 2017
18.6
16.4
14.0
10.9
22.7
20.7
19.4
19.2
20.3
19.8
19.2
19.4
15.2
5.4
5.3
5.2
5.1
5.4
5.4
5.5
5.5
5.9
5.9
5.8
5.8
5.6
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.8
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.4
3.1
3.5
4.1
3.2
3.2
0.50
0.45
0.40
0.33
0.59
0.55
0.53
0.52
0.58
0.58
0.58
0.56
0.48
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Kia Soul EV
Nissan Leaf
Ford Focus EV
Chevrolet Spark EV
Toyota Prius PHEV
Ford C-MAX Energi
Ford Fusion Energi
Chevrolet Volt
Honda Accord
Toyota Camry
Chevrolet Malibu
Ford Fusion
Chevrolet Cruze
Total cost of ownership, thousand $
Price, net
Running costs
Fuel
With incentives:
The TCO of a BEV is up to 25% lower than an average midsize gasoline vehicles
PHEVs cost the same as midsize gasoline vehicles: higher purchase price, lower incentivesLabels in italics are $/mile; Price includes down payment, financing and sales tax and is net of incentives and resale value; running costs consist of road
tax, insurance and maintenance. Based on $0.125/kWh electricity and $2.50/gal fuel prices. 10,100 miles driven per year, TCO is calculated over the first
5 years of ownership Bloomberg New Energy Finance
With incentives, the TCO of BEVs is lower than all but the cheapest ICE vehicles in the US…
BEV
PHEV
ICE
$/mile
US 2015 models
9 April 18, 2017
28.6
26.4
24.0
20.9
26.7
26.2
29.4
28.2
20.3
19.8
19.2
19.4
15.2
5.4
5.3
5.2
5.1
5.4
5.4
5.5
5.5
5.9
5.9
5.8
5.8
5.6
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.8
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.4
3.1
3.5
4.1
3.2
3.2
0.69
0.65
0.60
0.53
0.67
0.66
0.72
0.69
0.58
0.58
0.58
0.56
0.48
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Kia Soul EV
Nissan Leaf
Ford Focus EV
Chevrolet Spark EV
Toyota Prius PHEV
Ford C-MAX Energi
Ford Fusion Energi
Chevrolet Volt
Honda Accord
Toyota Camry
Chevrolet Malibu
Ford Fusion
Chevrolet Cruze
Total cost of ownership, thousand $
Price, net
Running costs
Fuel
Without incentives:
Current BEV models are more expensive than midsize gasoline cars by ~13%, PHEVs by 15%
The Chevrolet Spark EV is still cheaper due to its low upfront price (~$25k)
Labels in italics are $/mile; Price includes down payment, financing and sales tax and is net of incentives and resale value; running costs
consist of road tax, insurance and maintenance. Based on $0.125/kWh electricity and $2.50/gal fuel prices. 10,100 miles driven per year,
TCO is calculated over the first 5 years of ownership Bloomberg New Energy Finance
…but BEVS/PHEVS are still more expensive without purchase incentives
BEV
PHEV
ICE
US 2015 models
$/mile
10 April 18, 2017
0200400600800
1,000
H1
20
12
H2
20
12
H1
20
13
H2
20
13
H1
20
14
H2
20
14
H1
20
15
H2
20
15
MW
h
0
500
1,000
H1…H2…H1…H2…H1…H2…H1…
MWh of sales ofbatteries in newEVs
Vehicle lithium-ion battery prices and monthly volumes of lithium-ion batteries sold in new EV sales, 2012-2015 ($/KWh and MWh)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Prices include both pack and cell costs
The decline in price is partly due to technology
improvements, increased plant utilization and aggressive
pricing strategy by large players
1
The five largest battery manufacturers control 64% of li-
ion battery capacity for EVs
Panasonic supplies batteries to at least 18 models, LG
Chem to 12, Samsung to 6
2
H1 2012: $689/kWh
H2 2012: $642/kWh
H1 2013:$599/kWh
H1 2014: $568/kWh
H2 2014:$540/kWh
H2 2015:$350/kWh
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600$/k
Wh
689642599
Range betweenminimum and maximumprice reported
Volume-weightedaverage battery price
11 April 18, 2017
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Bloomberg New Energy Finance recorded learning rate of SI PV modules and Li-ion battery packs2004 – 16 (multiple units)
1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000
0
1
10
100
0
1
10
100
1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000
Cumulative lithium-ion EV battery pack production (MWh)
Cumulative crystalline PV module production (MW)
Cry
sta
llin
e S
i P
V M
od
ule
price
(US
D/W
)
Lith
ium
-ion
ba
ttery
pa
ck p
rice
(US
D/W
h)
m=14%
m=26.3%
Crystalline Si PV module prices have
fallen 26.3% on average for every
doubling of cumulative production
capacity in 2004 – 15
1
Li-ion battery pack prices have fallen
19% on average for every doubling
of cumulative production capacity in
2010 – 16
2
m=19%
12 April 18, 2017
Observed and forecast EV lithium-ion battery prices2010-30 ($/KWH)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Note: values shown are taken from BNEF’s annual EV lithium-ion battery price survey. Forecast is based
on a learning rate of 14-20%. EV cost parity is calculated on an unsubsidised total cost of ownership
(TCO) basis. The date range reflects cross over with different vehicle classes in the US.
The weighted average battery price in
2016 was $273/kWh. Based on a
learning rate of 19%, we anticipate
battery prices will reach $73/kWh by
2030
1
The decline of battery pack prices has
accelerated since 2014 due to
improvements in energy density and
pack design, and large contracts as
mass market EVs such as the Bolt and
the Model 3 are introduced.
2
Moderate scenario
Aggressive scenario
$273/kWh
13 April 18, 2017
Lithium-ion battery cost breakdown for a US plant, by component, BEV pack2015 – 16 ($/kWh)
Cathode
Anode
Separator
Electrolyte
Electrical connections
Pouch
Pack HousingBattery Management
SystemModule control
Module housing
Thermal management
Cell operating
Pack operating
Cell capital
Pack capitalLabour
15%
8%
7%
5%
3%1%
14%4%3%
2%1%
11%
5%
17%
3%
Cell materials
39%
Pack materials
24%
Operating16%
Capital20%
$223/kWh
2016: $223/kWh
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
2015: $384/kWh
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Note: 40 kWh NMC/graphite pack
Cathode
Anode
Separator
Electrolyte
Electrical connections
PouchPack Housing
BMS
Module control
Module housing
Thermal management
Cell operating
Pack operating
Cell capital
Pack capitalLabour
20%
7%
9%
4%
3%1%
14%
4%3%
2%1%
11%
5%
13%2%
Cell materials
44%
Pack materials
24%
Operating16%
Capital15%
$384/kWh
$384/kWh: production costs of a
1GWh output plant, in the US, with a
12% WACC, 10 year lifetime
1
High volume US plants can produce
batteries below the average market
price ($273/kWh), despite high
capital costs.
2
$223/kWh is our indicative 2016
battery pack price for a large
(3GWh), US based plant that is
optimized for high volume
production.
3
14 April 18, 2017
BNEF battery price survey 2016 and experience curve forecast2010-30, ($/KWh)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Note: values shown are taken from BNEF’s annual EV lithium-ion battery price survey. Forecast is based on a learning rate of 19%. EV cost
parity is calculated on an unsubsidised total cost of ownership (TCO) basis. The date range reflects cross over with different vehicle classes in the US.
89
730
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Bottom-upanalysis
Survey-basedanalysis
BNEF observed values
EV cost parity cross-over
15 April 18, 2017
Unsubsidized total cost of ownership of EVs will reach parity with ICE in the mid-2020’s
Note: 10,100 miles per year, 5-year ownership. Gasoline and electricity prices from EIA’s 2015 Annual Energy Outlook ‘Low Oil Price’
scenario (ranging from $50 to $65 between 2015 and 2025). The fuel economy of an internal combustion engine vehicle increases by 3.5%
per year and its price increases by 1% per year. The purchase price of a battery electric vehicle is based on the battery pack price, using an
adjustment factor of 3-to-4 between 2015 and 2030, plus a profit margin of 7%. All other costs remain constant in 2015 dollars. Bloomberg New Energy Finance
$0.0
$0.2
$0.4
$0.6
$0.8
$1.0
$1.2
$1.4
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036
$/mile
Midsize
Compact
BEV 60 kWh
BEV 45 kWh
Between 2020 and 2030, EVs will become cheaper to own than ICE cars on an unsubsidized basis
16 April 18, 2017
Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: ICE+HEV = internal combustion engine and hybrid vehicles, BEV = battery electric vehicles, PHEV = plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.
Global LDV and EV yearly sales, 2015 –2040 (million vehicles sold per year, %)
35%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
ICE +HEV
BEV
PHEV
EV % ofnewsales
m vehicles sold per year % of new car sales
Global sales penetration
forecast:
2020: 2%
2025: 8%
2030: 20%
2040: 35-47%
17 April 18, 2017
drivers
2 Technology development
3 Mobility
1 Fuel efficiency
18 April 18, 2017
0.2 0.2 0.4
5.3
11.3
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Other
Ola
Lyft
Didi
Uber
The rise of shared services and new mobility business models
Investments in ride-hailing companies,
2011-15 ($ billion)
Operator car sharing
Peer-to-peer ride sharing
Peer-to-peer car sharing
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
On-demand ride-hailing
19 April 18, 2017
Sensitivity of the TCO of BEVS to changes in costs, using purchasing incentives
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Running and fuel costs have a smaller impact on BEV’s total cost of ownership…
…but vehicle utilization rates important factors in determining competitiveness of EVs relative to gasoline
cars…
…specially in a scenario where the global vehicle fleet is utilized around 5% of the time.
1
ICE
BEV
BEV
-12% -9% -6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12%
Purchase and financing costs
Running costs
Fuel costs
Change in TCO for a 10% change in given variableChange in total cost of vehicle ownership for a 10% in a given variable
20 April 18, 2017
Global average unsubsidized total cost of ownership outlook of BEVs compared with internal combustion engine vehicles 2016 – 2036 ($/mile)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Any mass adoption of EVs – over 5% of new
vehicle sales – needs to be supported by
competitive TCO.
Economics are not the only factor, but they are
the leading indicator of future EV adoption.
1
Using EIA’s “low” reference crude oil price to 2040
($50-$75/barrel) – and our battery cost forecast –
BEVs will not be competitive on a TCO-basis with
ICEs until 2022
2
We project that a long-range 60kWh BEV can be
competitively priced at $21,500 by 2040 (2015
dollars).
At that point, the total addressable market could
exceed 50% of new sales for most markets
3
PHEVs only
BEVs only
$0.0
$0.2
$0.4
$0.6
$0.8
$1.0
$1.2
$1.4
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036
$/mile
Midsize
Compact
BEV 60 kWh
BEV 45 kWh
Between 2020 and 2030, EVs will become cheaper to own than ICE cars on an unsubsidized basis
21 April 18, 2017
TCO scenario where EV utilization doubles relative to ICE vehicles2016 – 2036 ($/mile)
$0.0
$0.2
$0.4
$0.6
$0.8
$1.0
$1.2
$1.4
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036
BEV 60 kWh
BEV 45 kWh
Midsize
Compact
Higher EV utilization relative to ICE may drive down TCO dramatically and push up adoption faster
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
If ICE vehicle miles travelled are held constant in
2014 – 40, and BEV miles are doubled, TCO falls
dramatically
1
The effect on ownership economics is sharp and
in 2025 the per-mile cost of owning and operating
an EV falls by about 40%
2
The additional electricity and maintenance costs
are small and spread over a large number of
miles driven.
3
22 April 18, 2017
BNEF global NEW EV sales forecast by geography, 2015–2040 (million vehicles per year)
EQUAL NUMBER OF MILES TRAVELLED DOUBLED THE EV MILES TRAVELLED
Under equal vehicle miles travelled the number of new EVs sold in
2030 globally is about 22m
The inclusion rate of EVs that year is 20% of new vehicles sold
1
When doubling the utilization rate of plug-ins, the number of
new EVs sold in 2030 increases to 25m
The penetration rate of new vehicle sales in 2030 increases to
close to 24%
2
23.75%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030
Plug-ins
Plug-insas % ofnew sales
20%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030
Plug-ins
Plug-insas % ofnew sales
23 April 18, 2017
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Alejandro Zamorano-Cadavid