DoD Volcano & Ash Forecasting:Perspectives, Challenges, and

Opportunities --2nd International Conference on Volcano and

Ash Forecasting

DoD Volcano & Ash Forecasting:Perspectives, Challenges, and

Opportunities --2nd International Conference on Volcano and

Ash Forecasting

Mr. Alan R. ShafferJune 21, 2004

Director, Plans & Programs OfficeDefense Research and Engineering

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Operational Support System

• Air Force Weather Agency serves as DoD focal point for global volcanic ash cloud forecasts; 24/7 global coverage– Text Bulletins– Satellite Analysis – Graphical Forecast Products

• Takes Advantage of Advanced MetSat Applications at Air Force Weather Agency– Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Data Process and Handling Center

• Forecast based on ”PUFF” Model – PUFF is Advective Model using Point Source and Gridded Wind Fields– Military Model can be run with higher resolution (45km grid vice 191-km)

• Navy Centers also issue tailored ash forecasts; e.g. NEMOC issues routine Mt. Etna forecasts for Sigoniela, Italy

• Ash Forecast Driver Different for DoD compared to Commercial– Mission vice Economic Drivers

For Official Use OnlyFor Official Use Only

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Operational Support System--Air Force Weather Agency--

For Official Use OnlyFor Official Use Only

• AFWA Issues Graphic AFWA Issues Graphic Problems as Required—Problems as Required—example at right is the forecast example at right is the forecast for Tungurahua in Ecuador for Tungurahua in Ecuador (June 17, 2004)(June 17, 2004)• Includes flight level, ash Includes flight level, ash densitydensity• Products updated daily—or Products updated daily—or more often if serious event more often if serious event occursoccurs• Also issue an animation Also issue an animation product for forecast evolution product for forecast evolution over timeover time

4For Official Use OnlyFor Official Use Only

• Expansion of panels for Expansion of panels for Tunguruhura, in Ecuador Tunguruhura, in Ecuador (June 17, 2004)(June 17, 2004)• Panel shows +3, +6 hour Panel shows +3, +6 hour forecast over a altitude forecast over a altitude widthwidth• For specialized missions, For specialized missions, it is possible to provide high it is possible to provide high resolution tailored forecasts resolution tailored forecasts

18 June 0300Z18 June 0300Z 18 June 0600Z18 June 0600Z

Operational Support System--Air Force Weather Agency--

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• Basis is the Volcanic Ash Forecast Basis is the Volcanic Ash Forecast Transport and Dispersion Model Transport and Dispersion Model (VAFTAD)(VAFTAD)• Investigating the ingestion of deep Investigating the ingestion of deep layer Navy NOGAPS modellayer Navy NOGAPS model• VAFTAD is advection / diffusion VAFTAD is advection / diffusion modelmodel

• 191 Km AVN fields191 Km AVN fields• Navy developing 45 km Navy developing 45 km version using NOGAPS Sky-version using NOGAPS Sky-high modelhigh model

National Weather Service Product--VAFTAD--

For Official Use OnlyFor Official Use Only

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Operational DoD Text Bulletincs

For Official Use OnlyFor Official Use Only

WEATHER BULLETINS WEATHER BULLETINS FVAW1 KGWC 180000 GLOBAL VOLCANIC ERUPTION SUMMARY BULLETIN VOLCANIC FVAW1 KGWC 180000 GLOBAL VOLCANIC ERUPTION SUMMARY BULLETIN VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONS PAST 24 HOURS ERUPTIONS PAST 24 HOURS 1. EUROPE, AFRICA, AND ICELAND (A) NONE. --FOR FURTHER INFORMATION SEE CURRENT 1. EUROPE, AFRICA, AND ICELAND (A) NONE. --FOR FURTHER INFORMATION SEE CURRENT

FVAF LFPW BULLETIN—FVAF LFPW BULLETIN— 2. AMERICAS (CANADA, CARIBBEAN, SOUTH AMERICA) (A)VOLCANO: TUNGURAHUA 1502-2. AMERICAS (CANADA, CARIBBEAN, SOUTH AMERICA) (A)VOLCANO: TUNGURAHUA 1502-

08 LOCATION: 1.46S 78.44W AREA: ECUADOR SUMMIT ELEVATION: 16480 FT (5023 M)) 08 LOCATION: 1.46S 78.44W AREA: ECUADOR SUMMIT ELEVATION: 16480 FT (5023 M)) ERUPTION DETAILS: ERUPTION AT 17/1745Z. TRAJECTORY: ASH/STEAM TO FL230 MOVG ERUPTION DETAILS: ERUPTION AT 17/1745Z. TRAJECTORY: ASH/STEAM TO FL230 MOVG WEST AT 15-20 KTS. --FOR FURTHER INFORMATION SEE FVXX KWBC BULLETIN—WEST AT 15-20 KTS. --FOR FURTHER INFORMATION SEE FVXX KWBC BULLETIN—

3. NORTH PACIFIC (ALASKA, KAMCHATKA, JAPAN, PHILIPPINES) (A)VOLCANO: 3. NORTH PACIFIC (ALASKA, KAMCHATKA, JAPAN, PHILIPPINES) (A)VOLCANO: KARYMSKY 1000-13 LOCATION: 54.05N 159.43E AREA: KAMCHATKA SUMMIT ELEVATION: KARYMSKY 1000-13 LOCATION: 54.05N 159.43E AREA: KAMCHATKA SUMMIT ELEVATION: 4874 FT (1486 M) ERUPTION DETAILS: ERUPTION REPORTED AT 17/2223Z. TRAJECTORY: 4874 FT (1486 M) ERUPTION DETAILS: ERUPTION REPORTED AT 17/2223Z. TRAJECTORY: ASH TO FL090 MVG EAST AT 15-20KTS. --FOR FURTHER INFORMATION SEE FVFE RJTD ASH TO FL090 MVG EAST AT 15-20KTS. --FOR FURTHER INFORMATION SEE FVFE RJTD BULLETIN– BULLETIN–

4. SOUTH PACIFIC (AUSTRALIA, NEW ZEALAND, INDONESIA) (A) NONE. FOR SATELLITE 4. SOUTH PACIFIC (AUSTRALIA, NEW ZEALAND, INDONESIA) (A) NONE. FOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PUFF MODEL FORECASTS BASED ON GFS DATA SEE: HTTPS IMAGERY AND PUFF MODEL FORECASTS BASED ON GFS DATA SEE: HTTPS ://WEATHER.AFWA.AF.MIL/ENVIRONMENTAL(UNDERSCORE)EVENTS.HTML (LOWER-://WEATHER.AFWA.AF.MIL/ENVIRONMENTAL(UNDERSCORE)EVENTS.HTML (LOWER-CASE ONLY). PREPARED BY MARTINEZ CASE ONLY). PREPARED BY MARTINEZ

Created: 01:48:59 Z on Fri 18 Jun 2004.Created: 01:48:59 Z on Fri 18 Jun 2004.

• Issued by AGFWAIssued by AGFWA

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Current State of Supporting Research

• Air Force– Air Force Does in-house development of products and graphics by Satellite Applications

Branch– Has supported the development of PUFF, with the University of Alaska Geophysics Institute

• AF Funded efforts included:– Creating the ability to ingest (high resolution) AFWA forecast model fields– Developing graphical user interface

• Further Development not funded

• Navy: Ingestion of NOGAPS Sky Hi (45km) fields into PUFF

• Army: Jointly funded early University Partnering for Operational Support

• Other Applicable Research– Sensing

• DoD spending ~$300M/year in advanced sensors and applicatrions, including advanced IR resolution and uncooled IR focal planes, as well as multispectral and hyperspectral sensors

• DoD again funding (minimally) seismology research– Propulsion: DoD investing ~ $125M / year in Integrated High-Performance Turbine Engine

Research; including advanced componsites and metals

For Official Use OnlyFor Official Use Only

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PUFF Characteristics

• PUFF is used by Washington Volcanic Ash Advisory Center, Air Fore Weather Agency and University of Anchorage Volcanic Ash Advisory Center

• Deficiencies:– Detection

• Sensing initial ash eruption density • Characterizing ash cloud density and distribution

– Plume Transport• Characterizing upper level variability in wind field• Integrating model with high resolution winds

• Future proposed research includes real time graphical user interface

For Official Use OnlyFor Official Use Only

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Research Opportunities

• Apply other DoD tools to Volcanic Ash model

– High Resolution Terrain Data: Worldwide terrain / topographic data available at 100m post spacing—many areas 3 to 5 meters

– Novel Sensors:• Multi and Hyperspectral, Long Wave IR• DoD experimenting with Hyperspectral high resolution—

– Question: Are there unique spectral characteristics in volcanic ash cloud?

– How does Met Community Leverage other opportunities?• Navy SPY-1 Radar became solid weather radar for Navy Aegis Cruiser

– Use of multiple sensors

For Official Use OnlyFor Official Use Only

Possible Application—Hyperspectral Imagery --Adaptive Spectral Reconnaissance Program--

• Hyperspectral detection of camouflaged and concealed mobile tactical vehicles

• Algorithm-based detection processing• Detection-cued high resolution imagery

Hyperspectral Sensor•140-300 bands •1m Scale Spatial Res

Real Time Processor•Detects Targets•Cues EO/TIR Imagery

High Spatial ResEO/TIR Camera•NIIRS 7.5/6.5

Airborne Platform

RGB from HS datacube

Cued High-Resolution Image Chip

Target

Target

Target

Actual Image Pending Security Review

Output from SEM detection algorithm

11WaterSurf GrassCompact

SandDry sand

Wet sand

Shrub

Littoral Radiance IICamp Pendleton CA, June 14, 1997

Classification Map Confusion Matrix (SAM)

Algorithm Performance Comparison

100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 94.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 99.8% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 99.6% 0.3%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 99.7%

Ground Truth Testing Regions

Tra

inin

g

Cla

ss

es

Possible Application—Hyperspectral Imagery --Adaptive Spectral Reconnaissance Program--

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Hypersonic Sensors

For Official Use OnlyFor Official Use Only

Goes 12Goes 12

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Research Questions

For Official Use OnlyFor Official Use Only

Goes 12Goes 12

14For Official Use OnlyFor Official Use Only

• Navy Research Lab is Navy Research Lab is investigating: Improvement in the investigating: Improvement in the Volcanic Ash Forecast Transport and Volcanic Ash Forecast Transport and Dispersion Model (VAFTAD) and Dispersion Model (VAFTAD) and PUFFPUFF• Investigating the ingestion of deep Investigating the ingestion of deep layer Navy NOGAPS modellayer Navy NOGAPS model• Again, Looking at higher resolution Again, Looking at higher resolution modelsmodels

Operational Support System--Navy Forecast Philosophy--