dodge construction outlook 2018 - microsoft · 2017-12-13 · aurora public schools november 2016...

Prepared for

AGC Colorado

Cliff Brewis

Vice President Operations

Dodge Data & Analytics

Dodge Construction Outlook 2018

U.S. Macroeconomic OutlookModerate economic expansion driven by subdued employment and productivity growth

GDP Pattern:

History Forecast

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

+2.4% +2.6% +1.6% +2.3% +2.6%

Hurricane/Fire Impact -0.5% ($200 bil)

Trump Impact:

• Stimulate the Economy:

•Deregulation

•Affordable Care Act

•Tax Cuts

•Infrastructure

•Area of Concern :

•Trade War: Mexico & China

•Budget Deficit

•Distractions

U.S. Macroeconomic OutlookFor consumption to continue and employment growth to slow gradually, wages need to increase.

U.S. Construction – Dodge Momentum Index

The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) tracks

the first (or initial) reports for nonresidential building

projects at the planning stage. Excludes mfg.

buildings.

• The DMI bottomed out in July 2011,

and has been trending upward since then.

• The initial increases were shown by the

commercial component – leveled off in 2014-

first half 2015, then showed renewed growth in

second half 2015 and 2016.

Institutional building picked up in 2013, then

leveled off in 2014-15, renewed growth in 2016.

The Dodge Momentum Index - a measure of projects in planning - Note: strength of Private sector work

U.S. Construction Market OutlookPoints of Perspective

Infrastructure ConsiderationsPotential for Consensus but framework is not clear

Current Status• Highway Trust Fund Operating at a Deficit

• Consensus: Infrastructure Under funded

Trump Plan

• $1 Trillion program

• $200 Billion Public Contribution

• 80+% Tax Reductions

• Reduced Lending Costs

• Revenue Sources

• Offset by Payroll Taxes

Local Funding

• 75% of Current funding from State

• Impact of Tax Plan on Muni Bonds

State Gross Domestic ProductWhile Q1 nationally was soft, CO continued to grow

State UnemploymentMeanwhile CO continues to grow the labor force

Colorado: Residential

Single Family continues to climb, but Multi is leveling off.

‘$000.00

Single Family

Multi Family

$0

$500,000

$1,000,000

$1,500,000

$2,000,000

$2,500,000

$3,000,000

20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

Colorado: Residential

Note the number of projects in design

PROJECTS CITY STAGE ESTVALUE

APARTMENS/CONDOS/MIXEDUSE

SheridanStationResidences DENVER DesignDevelopment $33,500,000

AltaSoboStationApartments DENVER ConstructionDocuments $31,800,000

JeffersonViewApartments DENVER DesignDevelopment $25,000,000

WatermarkApartments@BriargateCrossing COLORADOSPRINGS Start $25,000,000

DelawareLoftsApartments DENVER ConstructionDocuments $17,700,000

WellingtonApartments DENVER ConstructionDocuments $15,000,000

TheStandardatFortCollinsApartments FORTCOLLINS DesignDevelopment $15,000,000

ArrowatWinterParkMixedUseDevelopment WINTERPARK DesignDevelopment $25,000,000

OneSnowmassMixedUseBldgs7&8Additions SNOWMASSVILLAGE Start;ConstructionDocuments $65,000,000

Vida@StAnthony'sMixedUseBuilding DENVER DesignDevelopment $36,000,000

MarketStationMixed-UseDevelopment DENVER DesignDevelopment $150,000,000

RiverwalkatCastleRockMixedUseDevelopment CASTLEROCK ConstructionDocuments $60,000,000

ZiaAffordableApartments DENVER DesignDevelopment $110,000,000

TheWalcottApartments-UndergroundParking DENVER DesignDevelopment $15,000,000

StanleyApartments-ParkingonGradeLevel AURORA BidResults $15,000,000

ModeraLoHiApartments DENVER DesignDevelopment $25,000,000

GrandViewLoHiCondoDevelopment DENVER DesignDevelopment $20,000,000

ASSISTEDLIVING

GoldenLodgeAssistedLiving&MemoryCare GOLDEN Start $25,000,000

VillageCooperativeofLakewood LAKEWOOD GCBidding-Invitation $10,000,000

U.S. Multifamily HousingTop 10 Metropolitan Areas - 9 months year-to-date, 2017 vs. 2016. Based on dollars.

Colorado: Office & HotelOffice is continuing an upward climb, while hotel is declining

‘$000.00

Office

Hotel

$0

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

$1,000,000

$1,200,000

$1,400,000

$1,600,000

$1,800,000

20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Colorado: Office & HotelOffice is continuing an upward climb, while hotel is declining


OFFICE/HOTEL/MIXEDUSE

TrimbleNavigationOfficeBldg#2@Westmoor WESTMINSTER Start $15,000,000

RTLogicOfficeBuilding(Ph2Add) COLORADOSPRINGS Start $10,000,000

Building1Wings5,4&PartialSpine BOULDER DesignDevelopment $5,000,000

2nd+DetroitMixedUseOfficeBuilding DENVER ConstructionDocuments $37,500,000

DHACentralOffices(Design/Build) DENVER Start $12,000,000

PlatteRiverPowerAuthorityHeadquartersCampusNEGOTIATEDFORTCOLLINS DesignDevelopment $10,000,000

Nexus@DIAMixedUseDev(MASTERREPORT) COMMERCECITY Phased $150,000,000

MercuryVillageOffice/RetailDev(MASTERREPORT) DURANGO DesignDevelopment $10,000,000

ParkwayCircleMixedUse(Ph2)(MASTERREPORT) Broomfield DesignDevelopment $15,000,000

WestinHotel(GreenwoodVillageCO) GREENWOODVILLAGE Construction;ConstructionDocuments $25,000,000

ElementHotelbyMarriott(DenverCO) DENVER ConstructionDocuments $24,500,000

CourtyardbyMarriottHotel@Centerra LOVELAND Start;ConstructionDocuments $10,000,000

U.S. Commercial – Office BuildingsTop 10 Metropolitan Areas - 9 months year-to-date, 2017 vs. 2016. Based on dollars.

Colorado: Retail & Warehouse

Retail

‘$000.00

Warehouse

The sectors serve overlapping demand

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Colorado: Retail & WarehouseThe sectors serve overlapping demand


RETAIL/MIXEDUSE/WAREHOUSE

Office/WarehouseBldgD@AuroraCommerceCenter Aurora ConstructionDocuments $25,000,000

Office/WarehouseCatLouisvilleCorporateCampus@CTC LOUISVILLE ConstructionDocuments $10,000,000

PlatteRiverPowerAuthorityHeadquartersCampusNEGOTIATEDFORTCOLLINS DesignDevelopment $10,000,000

MedicalSupplyOffice/WarehouseBldg(Shell)@Interpark BROOMFIELD Start $10,000,000

Office/WarehouseB@LouisvilleCorporateCampus@CTC LOUISVILLE ConstructionDocuments $10,000,000

OneidaParkShoppingCenterRenovation DENVER DesignDevelopment $10,000,000

ColoradoSprings(CO)Wal-MartNeighborhoodMkt7313 COLORADOSPRINGS DesignDevelopment $11,000,000

CarriageHillsRetailMarketplace(MASTERREPORT) Frederick DesignDevelopment $10,000,000

PowersPointeCommercialCenter(MASTERREPORT) COLORADOSPRINGS DesignDevelopment $15,000,000

Colorado: Education & Public

Education

‘$000.00

Public

$0

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

$1,000,000

$1,200,000

$1,400,000

$1,600,000

20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Education is gradually trending up, other public spending is flat.

Colorado: Education & PublicEducation has a strong pipeline.


EDUCATION

RFQ/AE:ECOTCapitalRenewal&RenovationCP260652 BOULDER Bidding;Pre-Design $18,300,000

CSURichardsonDesignCenter(Design/Build) FORTCOLLINS Start $13,200,000

WeldCountyHighSchool#2-Severance SEVERANCE BidResults $52,230,340

EagleValleyHighSchoolAddn/Renovs(Design/Build) GYPSUM Start $31,200,000

EagleValleyMiddleSchoolAddn/Renovs EAGLE Start $25,700,000

PlattMiddleSchool(Renovations) BOULDER ConstructionDocuments $14,363,300

FairviewHighSchool(Improvements) BOULDER ConstructionDocuments $13,987,000

CentennialMiddleSchoolImprovements BOULDER DesignDevelopment $10,151,310

RiverdaleBallFields THORNTON Bidding $9,000,000

NortheastElementaryExpansion BRIGHTON DesignDevelopment $10,000,000

AuroraPublicSchoolsNovember2016BondImprovements AURORA DesignDevelopment $280,000,000

CharterSchools(MASTERREPORT) DENVER DesignDevelopment $90,000,000

U.S. Institutional – Educational BuildingsTop 10 States K-12 School Construction – 9 Months year-to-date, 2017 vs. 2016. Based on dollars.

Colorado: Health

‘$000.00

Uncertainty Complicates Investment

$0

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

$1,000,000

$1,200,000

$1,400,000

$1,600,000

20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

Colorado: HealthUncertainty Complicates Investment


HEALTH

PenroseHospital-(MASTERREPORT) COLORADOSPRINGS DesignDevelopment $15,000,000

MedicalCenterAuroraMedical/SurgicalExpansion AURORA DesignDevelopment $10,000,000

SwedishMedicalCenter4th/6thFlrMajorRenovations ENGLEWOOD Start $10,000,000

ResidentialRehabilitationTreatment AURORA BidResults $5,000,000

PenroseStFrancisHealthSvcsCampus(MASTERREPORT) COLORADOSPRINGS DesignDevelopment $50,000,000

BrammingFarmNorthSuburbanMedicalCenter(MASTERREPORT)Thornton DesignDevelopment $10,000,000

KaiserPermanenteMedicalClinics(MASTERREPORT) VARIOUS DesignDevelopment $10,000,000

OrthopaedicCenteroftheRockies(add) LOVELAND Start $10,000,000

U.S. Institutional – Healthcare FacilitiesTop 10 States Healthcare Facilities – 9 Months year-to-date, 2017 vs. 2016. Based on dollars.

Colorado: Highways & Water

Expect increases in infrastructure

‘$000.00

Highways

Water

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

$900,000

$1,000,000

20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

Colorado: Highways & Water

Expect increases in infrastructure


PUBLICWORKS

WaterTreatmentPlant/SystemImprovements(MASTERREPORT)COLORADOSPRINGS DesignDevelopment $10,000,000

RFQ/GC:6thAvenueParkwayExtension(SH30toE470) AURORA Bidding;DesignDevelopment $17,000,000

CO/DOT:BridgeStructureRepair(CO003) N/A BidResults $11,118,295

CO/DOT:SH133OverlayGuardrailImprovements AGATE Bidding $5,000,000

CO/DOT:US34DBoxCulvert&PavementRehabilitation(CO004)GREELEY Bidding $5,000,000

CO/DOT:US40Signage&SurfaceRehabilitation(CO003) N/A Bidding $5,000,000

CO/DOT:I-70EastSideVailPassRehabilitation(CO004) N/A Bidding $5,000,000

CO/DOT:US34RoadwayImprovement N/A Start $120,400,900

RiverdaleBallFields THORNTON Bidding $9,000,000

2018Runway7-25ComplexLightingPavementRehabilitation DENVER Bidding $15,000,000

Colorado: Total Construction

Continued growth

Structure 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 % Chge

AMUSE $139,764 $178,201 $262,293 $343,334 $383,771 $434,714 $332,880 $403,509 21.2%

BRIDGE $187,082 $269,348 $110,878 $261,515 $336,025 $331,504 $163,232 $238,337 46.0%

EDUC $803,220 $527,830 $692,610 $941,743 $734,824 $1,174,144 $1,311,589 $1,383,845 5.5%

HEALTH $1,448,642 $1,049,012 $530,180 $471,233 $747,827 $684,010 $1,235,018 $971,868 -21.3%

HIGHWAY $430,190 $641,556 $585,843 $619,380 $463,270 $885,415 $638,831 $802,958 25.7%

HOTEL $161,073 $327,141 $218,468 $205,888 $412,296 $734,393 $600,651 $528,190 -12.1%

MFG $98,270 $113,610 $125,433 $158,080 $150,811 $175,924 $223,321 $199,349 -10.7%

MULTI FAM $692,962 $1,293,957 $1,682,095 $1,944,319 $1,940,331 $2,660,899 $2,741,163 $2,752,438 0.4%

OFFICE $274,127 $283,335 $478,552 $658,492 $739,353 $1,111,518 $1,288,074 $1,605,867 24.7%

ONEFAM $2,632,296 $4,003,131 $5,252,363 $5,486,549 $6,543,627 $7,220,454 $8,618,366 $9,847,843 14.3%

PUB $199,783 $170,807 $97,007 $106,523 $121,030 $124,116 $128,987 $159,270 23.5%

REL $50,895 $48,185 $30,393 $53,232 $27,939 $15,336 $20,000 $26,075 30.4%

RETAIL $177,301 $281,644 $321,391 $392,918 $412,403 $392,730 $412,708 $412,786 0.0%

SEWERS $597,938 $89,635 $345,813 $116,230 $176,028 $153,746 $167,338 $208,483 24.6%

WARENM $57,262 $126,052 $145,041 $320,355 $317,612 $480,750 $645,289 $712,306 10.4%

WATER $166,580 $159,495 $374,440 $293,421 $218,475 $184,047 $247,534 $239,492 -3.2%

TOTAL $9,587,506 $12,393,249 $14,369,411 $14,339,040 $16,532,726 $18,317,050 $21,582,519 $23,022,500 6.7%

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Cliff Brewis

V P Operations

Dodge Data & Analytics

[email protected]