does climate change impact supercell...
TRANSCRIPT
Does climate change impact supercell tornadogenesis?
By Alexis HoffmanSURE Fellow
Washington University in St Louis Research at NC State University Summer 2010
Main questions:
• How might something so large as climate change impact something as small as a tornado?
• Will future warming affect supercells?– If so, can we discern an affect on
tornadogenesis?
Why does this matter?
– Supercells produce: • Average of 1,500 tornadoes/year (NOAA)
– $1.1 billion in damages/year– Over 80 deaths/year
• Damaging straight-line winds• Severe hail/rain events
What parameters matter in severe weather?
• Vertical wind shear
• Thermodynamic instability– Warming with increased moisture content – Known with more certainty in climate models
Hypothesis
– �Based strictly on the thermodynamics, future storm severity will increase.• Stronger updraft (vertical velocity)• Faster rotation (vertical vorticity)
Supercells
• Favorable environment:– Warm moist air lies
below cold dry air– Large wind shear– Moderate capping
inversion
• Mesocyclone (deep rotating updraft)
Image Credit: http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/primer/tornado/images/tor_formation_lg.jpg
Tornadoes
-Tornadogenesis: -S t r e t c h i n g *-Tilting-Baroclinic Generation
Image Credit: http://www.stormnetwork.net/56/a-tornado-sweeping-through-costa-ballena-greenhouses-and-trees/
Methods: Climate• A1B Scenario • CCSM3 Monthly Data• Averaged March and April:
– Temperature and Relative Humidity• Averaged over area:
– Oklahoma• Averaged over times:
– “20C” = 1990-1999– “A1B” = 2090-2099
Idealized Supercell SoundingsFuture
CAPE: 3431 J/kg
T(981mb) = +3.4K
CurrentCAPE: 2444 J/kg
Weather Research & Forecast Model
• High-resolution (2km) mesoscale model– Input:
• current and future idealized supercell sounding
• Current sounding from Weisman & Klemp 1982
• Quarter-circle shear hodograph– Ideal for mesocyclone formation
• Ran 8 microphysics schemes
• NCL for graphics and statistics
Maximum Updraft(300m)Images from Kessler-type parameterization, not averages
20C: 70 Minutes A1B: 70 Minutes
MAX = 2.5 m/s MAX = 3.8 m/s
Maximum Updraft
% CHANGE:∆(300) = 25%
∆(750) = 24%
∆(1500) = 18%t = 40-120 mins
p < .01
Maximum Vertical Vorticity (750m)Images from Kessler-type parameterization, not averages
20C: 80 Minutes A1B: 80 Minutes
MAX = 2.9x10-5 s-1 MAX = 3.3x10-5 s-1
Maximum Vertical Vorticity
% CHANGE∆(750) = 41%
∆(1500) = 22%
t = 60:120p < .01
Rotational UpdraftVertical Vorticity * Updraft
~SPC Severe Weather Parameter
% CHANGE• ∆(300) = 112%• ∆(750) = 89%• ∆(1500) = 55%
t = 60:120 mins
p < .01
Maximum Downdraft Speed (4000m)
% CHANGE• ∆(4000) = -31%• ∆(300) = -10%
t = 60:120 mins• Stronger downdraft speed
= stronger RFD
p < .01
Vorticity Evolution
As low vorticity increases, pressure decreases
Pressure drop retards updraft, maximum vorticity to shifts to region between updraft and downdraft
Future simulation is consistent with tornadogenesis signature
Changing the thermodynamics led to:
Stronger rotational updrafts, for a given wind shear Increased stretching
Low-Level/Mid-Level Vorticity SignatureVortex splitChanges are statistically significant
Conclusions
Further Research:
Isolate climate effects with a case study
If (average) wind shear decreases, as it should, will it affect vertical vorticity enough to dampen the thermodynamic effects?
Will hail production significantly change?Will it rain much more?
Given a number of supercells, will the percentage that have tornadoes increase? If a tornado happens in the future, is it going to be stronger?
Approach: Use ensemble of climate modelsUse a higher resolutionUse additional IPCC scenariosUse a past outbreak
Acknowlegements
• GCEP Program• Gary Lackmann• Kevin Hill• Bryce Tyner• Joseph Zambon• Briana Gordon• NC State University (MEAS)
CitationsBrandes, E. A., 1978: Mesocyclone evolution and tornadogenesis: Some observations.
Mon. Wea. Rev., 106:995Š1011. Brooks, H. E., C. A. Doswell III, and J. Cooper, 1994: On the environments of tornadic
and nontornadic mesocyclones. Wea. Forecasting, 9, 606Š618. Davies-Jones, R. P. 1984. Streamwise vorticity: The origin of updraft rotation in
supercell storms. J. Atmos. Sci. 41:2991Š3006. -----, and R. J. Trapp, and H. B. Bluestein, 2001: Tornadoes and tornadic storms. Severe
Convective Storms, Meteor. Monogr., No. 50, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 167Š221. Del Genio, A. D., M.-S. Yao, and J. Jonas (2007), Will moist convection be stronger in a
warmer climate?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L16703, doi:10.1029/2007GL030525. Doswell, C. A., 1987: The distinction between large-scale and mesoscale contribution to
severe convection: A case study example. Wea. Forecasting, 2:3Š16. Held, I. M., and B. J. Soden, 2006: Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global
warming. J. Climate, 19, 5686Š 5699. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical
science basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge Klemp, J. B., R. Rotunno, and P. S. Ray, 1981: Observed and numerically simulated
structure of a mature supercell thunderstorm. J. Atmos. Sci., 38:1558Š1580. ------, and ------, 1983: A study of the tornadic region within a supercell thunderstorm. J. Atmos. Sci., 40:359Š377 Lemon, L. R. and C. A. Doswell, 1979: Severe thunderstorm evolution and mesocyclone
structure as related to tornadogenesis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 107:1184Š1197. Locatelli , J. D., M. Stoelinga, and P. V. Hobbs, 2002: A new look at the Super Outbreak
of tornadoes on 3Š4 April 1974. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130:1633Š1651. Markowski, P. M., E. N. Rasmussen, and J. M. Straka, 1998a: The occurrence of
tornadoes in supercells interacting with boundaries during VORTEX-95. Wea. Forecasting,13, 852Š859.
Citations (continued)
Mead, C. M., 1997: The discrimination between tornadic and nontornadic supercell environments: A forecasting challenge in the southern United States. Wea. Forecasting, 12:379Š387.
Moller, A. R., C. A. Doswell III, M. P. Foster, and G. R. Woodall, 1994: The operational recognition of supercell thunderstorm environments and storm structures. Wea. Forecasting,9, 327Š347.
Rasmussen, E. N., and D. O. Blanchard, 1998: A baseline climatology of sounding- derived supercell and tornado forecast parameters. Wea. Forecasting, 13, 1148Š1164.
Rotunno, R. and J. B. Klemp, 1985: On the rotation and propagation of simulated supercell thunderstorms. J. Atmos. Sci., 42:271Š292.
Trapp, R. J., 2000: A clarification of vortex breakdown and tornadogenesis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128:888Š895.
-------, and B. A. Halvorson, and N. S. Diffenbaugh (2007), Telescoping, multimodel approaches to evaluate extreme convective weather under future climates, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D20109, doi:10.1029/2006JD008345.
-------, and N. S. Diffenbaugh, H. E. Brooks, M. E. Baldwin, E. D., Robinson, and J. S. Pal, 2007: Changes in severe thunderstorm environment frequency during the 21st century caused by anthropogenically enhanced global radiative forcing. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 104, 19 719Š19 723.
-------, and -------, and A.Gluhovsky (2009), Transient response of severe thunderstorm forcing to elevated greenhouse gas concentrations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L01703, doi:10.1029/2008GL036203.
Weisman, M. L. and J. B. Klemp, 1982: The dependence of numerically simulated convective storms on vertical wind shear and buoyancy. Mon. Wea. Rev, 110:504Š520.
APPENDIX
Climate and Severe Storms
• Background– Trapp et al (2007)
• Increase in CAPE attributable to increase in low-level atmospheric water vapor
– Trapp et al. (2009)• Storm forcings will continue to increase in the 21st century,
despite a decrease in vertical wind shear
– Del Genio et al (2009)• Thunderstorms wont change dramatically, but “the most severe
storms may occur more often”
Thunderstorm
A1B Scenario
Image Credit: IPCC Fourth Assessment
Precipitation
• p < .05. • Large variability between ensemble members • ∆(300) = 25%• ∆(750) = 23%
– Middle hr
PrecipitationImages from Kessler-type parameterization, not averages
20C: 40 Minutes A1B: 40 Minutes
Precipitation (4km, t=80mins)
Same Picture: 20C Same time: A1B
Graupel/Hail• “Insignificant” except at 9000m• Variability is very high• Raising freezing level• Increased updraft
Downdraft
Vorticity– Proves a stronger couplet
Idealized Supercell Sounding
Image Credit: Weisman & Klemp 1982
-WRF MODEL
-High-resolution mesoscale model using idealized supercell
-2km scale
-Quarter circle shear hodograph
-Coriolis term is OFF
Idealized Supercell: Current
Statistics– Student’s T-Test for significance between current and
future
– Analyzed final hour• Beginning Hour (Minutes: 10-70)• Middle Hour (Minutes: 40-100)• Last Hour (Minutes: 60-120)
– Significant: p < .01 • some information with p < .05
High-Altitude Precipitation in RFD
Precipitation is transported downward and anticyclonically around the main updraft
Evaporative cooling
This is in 20C at t=90min @ 4km
Limitations:
Only considered A1B
Realistically, capping inversions may change
Increased boundary layer moisture can impede low-level mesocyclogenesis
Sources of errorFaulty future soundingCould not locate maxima/minima with indicesResolution = 2km Conversions of sounding data
US Standard Atmospheric Supplement 1968
Idealized Supercell Hodograph: Future