does climate smart agriculture lead to resilience?
DESCRIPTION
May 16 in Parallel Session 3B "Erratic Weather Patterns: Dealing with Climate Change". Presented by Alex De Pinto, IFPRI.TRANSCRIPT
Does Climate Smart Agriculture Contribute to Resilience?
Alex De PintoSenior Research Fellow
Environment and Production Technology DivisionInternational Food Policy Research Institute
Addis Ababa, MAY 2014
A few definitions
From one of the last documents circulated by the CSA Alliance:Climate Smart Agriculture, three pillars• Sustainably increasing agricultural productivity;• Adapting and building resilience to climate change;• Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions.
Distinction between Adaptation and Resilience:• Adaptation capacity: the ability of humans to deal with
change in their environment (Folke et al., 2004).
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An empirical example from India
ACIAR project on: Capturing the potential for greenhouse gas offsets in Indian agriculture
Period under consideration 2010-2050 Essential components are: • IMPACT model: a global partial equilibrium model of
agricultural commodities• A spatially-explicit model of land use choices which
captures the main determinants of land use choices • Crop model (DNDC) to simulate yield, GHG emissions,
and changes in soil organic carbon
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Data and Simulations
Basic data on output prices (country-wide) and production costs (state-wide) taken from the Agricultural Statistics, 2013.
Extensive (but not exhaustive yet) search of published, and not yet published, data on changes in production costs related to adoption of alternative agricultural practices.
From DNDC we derive:• Yields changes• Carbon dioxide (CO2, from mineralization of organic matter)• Nitrous oxide (N2O)• Methane (CH4)• Soil organic carbon (SOC) accumulation/depletion
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Simulated Cropping Systems
Cropping system Karif Rabi
Groundnut-wheat Groundnut Wheat
Maize-wheat Maize Wheat
Pearl millet-wheat Pearl Wheat
Rice-fallow Rice fallow
Rice-pulses Rice pulses
Rice-rice Rice Rice
Rice-wheat Rice Wheat
Sorghum-wheat Sorghum Wheat
Soybean-wheat Soybean Wheat
Source: Efficient alternative cropping systems. Gangwar and Singh, 2012
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Simulated Practices
Management technique Description
ConventionalPrior to first crop in rotation tillage to 30cm depth; subsequent tillages(following each crop in rotation) to 10cm depth. fertilizer N applied as urea on plant date; manure applied on plant date
No-till Tillage only mulches residue
AWDRice paddy is initially flooded to 10 cm – water level is reduced at rate of -0.5 cm/day to -5cm and then re-flooded at rate of 0.5 cm/day till to 10 cm
No-till + organic fertilizer (manure)
Tillage only mulches residue50% of chemical fertilizer N replaced with organic fertilizer N (manure)
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Technical Mitigation Potential
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Relevant Information: CSA(calculated from a selection of states)
Effects of Adoption of Select Mitigation Practices on Yields
Effects of Adoption of Select Mitigation Practices on GWP
Effects of Adoption of Select Mitigation Practices on SOC
Effects of Adoption of Select Mitigation Practices on Net Revenues
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Climate Smart Agriculture
Sustainably Increase Productivity Adaptation Mitigation
Best CSA
Output SOC SOC Net Revenue GWP
No Till + + ++ + +Org. Fert. + No Till -- -- +++ -- ++
AWD - + + 0 +++
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Sustainably Increase Productivity Adaptation Mitigation
Best CSA
Output SOC SOC Net Revenue GWP
No Till + + ++ + +Org. Fert. + No Till -- -- +++ -- ++
AWD - + + 0 +++
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Sustainably Increase Productivity Adaptation Mitigation
Best CSA
Output SOC SOC Net Revenue GWP
No Till + + ++ + +Org. Fert. + No Till -- -- +++ -- ++
AWD - + + 0 +++
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Sustainably Increase Productivity Adaptation Mitigation
Best CSA
Output SOC SOC Net Revenue GWP
No Till + + ++ + +Org. Fert. + No Till -- -- +++ -- ++
AWD - + + 0 +++
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Relevant Information: Resilience(resilience refers to the production system) Effects of Adoption of Select Mitigation Practices on
Yields under extreme events Effects of Adoption of Select Mitigation Practices on
Yield variability
Climate extremes were calculated by considering 97.5 and 0.25 percentiles based on annual precipitation records for the period of 2004 to 2050 at each pixel. Then assumed that climate extremes would be. upper 2.5% and lower 2.5% events at each pixel
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CSA vs. Resilience
Sustainably Increase Productivity Adaptation Mitigation Resilience
Output SOC SOC Net Revenue GWP
Better Output in Weather Extreme
years
Reduced yield
variability
Net Revenue
No Till+ ++ ++ + + + - +
Org. Fert. + No Till
- - +++ +++ - - ++ - - - - - -
AWD- + + 0 +++ - + 0
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Conclusions There seems to be compatibility between CSA
and increased resilience of the productive system, but….
We first need to fully explore and agree on the definition of CSA, i.e. boundaries and trade-offs,
The analysis results indicate a large spatial variability: difficult to make blanket statements of best practices,
This type of multi-objective analysis becomes complicated very quickly and it complicates the formulation of policy recommendations.
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