©NIDEA 1

Natalie Jackson

Does New Zealand need a Population Policy? -and if so, what should it be?

Professor of Demography, Director, National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis (NIDEA)

Plenary presentation to the Biennial Population Association of New Zealand Conference, Wellington, NZ

June 2013

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What is a ‘Population Policy’?

• Population Policy = specific strategies (laws, regulations, administrative programs, procedures) for achieving or influencing population size and/or rate of growth – Formally articulated objectives and the means for

achieving them

• Westerners tend not to like them.. while being happy to impose on developing countries

• However – most policies (and non-policies) have demographic impacts – Therefore policies don’t need to be ‘population’

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-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Perc

enta

ge o

f al

l gro

wth

Percentage share of growth 2006-11

2011-16

2016-21

2021-26

2026-31

Key Issue #1: How will NZ’s future growth be shared?

Source: Statistics New Zealand, Subnational Population Projections: 2006(base)–2031 (October 2012

update)

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20

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60

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1200

-4

5-9

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-59

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-64

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-69

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-74

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-79

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-84

85

+

Perc

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han

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New Zealand: Projected change by age (%)

2011-2021 (8.9%)

2011-2031 (17.9%)

Key Issue #2: Ageing-driven growth is not the same as youth-driven growth

Statistics New Zealand Subnational Population Projections by Age and Sex, 2006(base)-2031 (2012

Update)

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New Zealand is part of a MUCH bigger picture.. (where our skilled migrants come from)

MDCs (58) Medium Series

65+ Years All other age groups combined

2011-2021

(2.9%)

25% -1.3%

2011-2031

(4.6%)

49%

(+98 million)

-3.9%

(-41million)

US Census Bureau International Database: More Developed Countries by age and sex

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Subnationally- all dark

red TA’s have more than

100 per cent of ‘growth’

at 65+ years; all are

projected to experience

overall decline at 0-64

years

• 1996-2011 32

TAs (48%)

• 2011-2031 56

TAs (84%)

Key Issue #3: 2/3 of ALL

growth 2011-2031

will be at 65+ years

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This matters a lot to

those who own houses,

businesses, employ

people, have to plan for

services..

It matters to local

councils

It matters to rate-payers

Ultimately it matters to

the whole country

Issue #4: 1/3 TAs already

in arguably permanent

decline

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0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

0-

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- 9

10

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-89

90

+

Nu

mb

er

(mill

ion

s)

With same birth rate and life expectancy* Zero Migration(5.1m, 28.3% 65+years)

Medium (6m,25.8% 65+ years)

V High Migration(7m, 24.5% 65+years)

Issue #5: Migration does not resolve population ageing

*Stats NZ: TFR 1.9 by 2031; Life Expectancy 88.1 (M), 90.5 (F) in 2061

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Issue #6: Who will work on/buy the farms?

10.0 5.0 0.0 5.0

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65+

percentage at each age

1996 (41,298)

Self-Employed,WithoutEmployees

Employer

PaidEmployee

UnpaidFamilyWorker

NS/NEI

Male Female

10.0 5.0 0.0 5.0

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65+

percentage at each age

2006 (38,634)

Male Female

2

55+ years 25.1% 55+ years 36.5%

NZ Grain, Sheep, Beef Farming #10

5

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Issue #7: Who will buy the houses?

Buller District

0

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Accumulators(25-64)

Decumulators(65+ )

5.0 2.5 0.0 2.5 5.0

0-4 5-9

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84

85+

percentage at each age

Buller District 2011 (2031 Unshaded)

Male Female

Decumulators:Accumulators 3.4 to 7.6 per 10

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What might make a real population policy?

• Support ALL parents – parenting work is work – Child Care availability is critical for parents to do other

work (the reproduction of the species is no longer a given)

– Children of Sole Parents are very much our future

– Māori children = 25-33% future workforce

• EXPLICITLY value ALL young people – our last large cohort (the recent blip) is already born

• Ensure ALL young New Zealanders have some form of training and are nurtured into a job – Subsidise / Write-Off Student Loans - OUR future

depends on their investment

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What might make a real population policy? cont.

• Ensure that ALL who want to work, can do so – Age-Management Planning seriously overdue

– Institute ‘Work-Ability’ frameworks

• Don’t see regional population decline as a ‘personal trouble’ for the particular council – National (and global) issues need collective responses

– Auckland’s gains come at the expense of ‘The Rest’

• Encourage more even population distribution

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• Thankyou

• natalie.jackson@waikato.ac.nz

• www.waikato.ac.nz/nidea