© 2003 H.S. Dent Foundation
Immigration Adjusted Birth IndexImmigration Adjusted Birth IndexT
ho
usa
nd
sT
ho
usa
nd
s
Year
5,000
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
© 2003 H.S. Dent Foundation
College Enrollments College Enrollments 18-Year Lag on Immigration Adjusted Births18-Year Lag on Immigration Adjusted Births
College Enrollments College Enrollments 18-Year Lag on Immigration Adjusted Births18-Year Lag on Immigration Adjusted Births
3,500,000
3,700,000
3,900,000
4,100,000
4,300,000
4,500,000
4,700,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Imm
igra
tio
n-A
dju
sted
Bir
ths
© 2003 H.S. Dent Foundation
2,200,000
2,700,000
3,200,000
3,700,000
4,200,000
4,700,000
5,200,000
5,700,000
1956 1963 1970 1977 1984 1991 1998 2005
1,000
10,000
100,000
5,000
30,000
Births Lagged For Peak Spending
Dow Adjusted For Inflation
50,000
Imm
igra
tio
n A
dju
ste
d B
irth
s
Do
w A
dju
sted
Fo
r In
flat
ion
(L
og
Sca
le)
The Spending WaveThe Spending WaveBirths Lagged for Peak in Family SpendingBirths Lagged for Peak in Family Spending
The Spending WaveThe Spending WaveBirths Lagged for Peak in Family SpendingBirths Lagged for Peak in Family Spending
© 2003 H.S. Dent Foundation
Average Immigrants per Year by AgeAverage Immigrants per Year by Age1945-20001945-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70
Age
Nu
mb
er o
f Im
mig
ran
ts
Source: US Census Bureau
© 2003 H.S. Dent Foundation
Immigration to the United StatesImmigration to the United States1820-20041820-2004
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,00018
20
1832
1844
1856
1868
1880
1892
1904
1916
1928
1940
1952
1964
1976
1988
2000
Source: U.S. Department of Homeland SecuritySource: U.S. Department of Homeland Security
© 2003 H.S. Dent Foundation
UK Ethnic Minority GroupsUK Ethnic Minority GroupsAs a % of All UK Ethnic MinoritiesAs a % of All UK Ethnic Minorities
28%
19%
13%
14%
12%
6%
8%
Indian
Pakistani
Other Asian
Caribbean
African
Chinese
Other
Source: UK Office of National Statistics
© 2003 H.S. Dent Foundation
Ethnic Groups by Low Income in Ethnic Groups by Low Income in the UKthe UK
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70W
hite
Indi
anPak
./Ban
gl.Bla
ck C
arib
b.Bla
ck O
ther
Oth
erSource: UK Office of National Statistics
© 2003 H.S. Dent Foundation
Foreign Born US PopulationForeign Born US Population
52%
26%
16%
6%
Latin America
Asia
Europe
Other
Source: US Census Bureau
© 2003 H.S. Dent Foundation
Movers to Different State: Young vs. OldMovers to Different State: Young vs. Old 1995 to 2000 1995 to 2000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
20 - 29 60 - 69
Source: US Census Bureau
11x11x
© 2003 H.S. Dent Foundation
Migration FlowsMigration Flows
© 2003 H.S. Dent Foundation
% of Americans Moving Each Year% of Americans Moving Each Year1948-20031948-2003
Source: Source: The EconomistThe Economist, “Degrees of Separation: A Survey of America”, July 16, “Degrees of Separation: A Survey of America”, July 16 ,, 2005. 2005.
© 2003 H.S. Dent Foundation
Migration by Size of Metro AreaMigration by Size of Metro Area1995 to 20001995 to 2000
Source: US Census Bureau
Total Total MetroMetro <250k<250k 250-1,000k250-1,000k 1-2mm1-2mm 2-5mm2-5mm >5mm>5mm
Net Domestic Net Domestic MigrationMigration -510k-510k 142k 142k 218k 218k 714k714k 527k527k -2,111k-2,111k
% Change% Change -2.5%-2.5% 8.0%8.0% 5.3%5.3% 21.7%21.7% 14.8%14.8% -27.4%-27.4%
ImmigrationImmigration 6,876k6,876k 318k 318k 881k881k 898k898k 1,438k1,438k 3,342k3,342k
© 2003 H.S. Dent Foundation
Cities in the Sweet SpotCities in the Sweet Spot1 Million – 2 Million1 Million – 2 Million
Source: Population Division, U.S. Census BureauSource: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau
Metropolitan statistical areas July 1, 2004Salt Lake City, UT 1,018,826Rochester, NY 1,041,499Birmingham-Hoover, AL 1,082,193Oklahoma City, OK 1,144,327Richmond, VA 1,154,317Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY 1,154,378Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT 1,184,564Louisville, KY-IN 1,200,847Jacksonville, FL 1,225,381Camden, NJ 1,237,773Memphis, TN-MS-AR 1,250,293Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro, TN 1,395,879Austin-Round Rock, TX 1,412,271Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC 1,474,734Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI 1,515,738Indianapolis, IN 1,621,613Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, RI-MA 1,628,808Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC 1,644,250Las Vegas-Paradise, NV 1,650,671Columbus, OH 1,693,906San Antonio, TX 1,854,050Orlando-Kissimmee, FL 1,861,707Kansas City, MO-KS 1,925,319
© 2003 H.S. Dent Foundation
Cities Approaching the Sweet SpotCities Approaching the Sweet Spot750,000 – 1 Million750,000 – 1 Million
Source: Population Division, U.S. Census BureauSource: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau
Metropolitan statistical areas July 1, 2004
Raleigh-Cary, NC 914,680
Tucson, AZ 907,059
Honolulu, HI 899,593
Tulsa, OK 881,815
Fresno, CA 866,772
Lake County-Kenosha County, IL-WI 851,330
New Haven-Milford, CT 845,694
Dayton, OH 845,646
Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY 845,269
Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA 803,801
Albuquerque, NM 781,447
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ 779,816
Worcester, MA 779,488
Grand Rapids-Wyoming, MI 767,539
© 2003 H.S. Dent Foundation
Total In-Migration by RegionTotal In-Migration by Region1995 to 20001995 to 2000
517
4415
2267
2970
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Northeast Midwest South West
in T
ho
usa
nd
s
Source: US Census Bureau
© 2003 H.S. Dent Foundation
In-Migration Breakdown by RegionIn-Migration Breakdown by Region1995 to 20001995 to 2000
Source: US Census Bureau
RegionRegion Domestic Net Domestic Net MigrationMigration
FromFrom
AbroadAbroadTotalTotal
NortheastNortheast -1,270,658 -1,270,658 1,567,331 1,567,331 296,673 296,673
MidwestMidwest -541,189 -541,189 1,057,870 1,057,870 516,681 516,681
SouthSouth 1,799,799 1,799,799 2,615,279 2,615,279 4,415,078 4,415,078
WestWest 12,048 12,048 2,255,366 2,255,366 2,267,414 2,267,414
© 2003 H.S. Dent Foundation
Top 12 States in Total In-MigrationTop 12 States in Total In-Migration as a % of Population as a % of Population
1995 to 20001995 to 2000
0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%
10.00%12.00%14.00%16.00%18.00%
Nev
ada
Ari
zon
a
Flo
rid
a
Geo
rgia
Co
lora
do
No
rth
Car
olin
aS
ou
th C
aro
lina
Ore
go
nD
elaw
are
Idah
oW
ash
ing
ton
Tex
as
Source: US Census Bureau
© 2003 H.S. Dent Foundation
By the Texas Transportation Institute's reckoning, the By the Texas Transportation Institute's reckoning, the cities having the worst traffic problems are:cities having the worst traffic problems are:
1. Los Angeles, Long Beach, Santa Ana, Calif. 1. Los Angeles, Long Beach, Santa Ana, Calif.
2. San Francisco, Oakland, Calif. 2. San Francisco, Oakland, Calif.
3. Washington, D.C. 3. Washington, D.C.
4. Atlanta4. Atlanta
5. Houston5. Houston
6. Dallas, Fort Worth, Arlington, Tex. 6. Dallas, Fort Worth, Arlington, Tex.
7. Chicago7. Chicago
8. Detroit 8. Detroit
9. Riverside, San Bernardino, Calif.9. Riverside, San Bernardino, Calif.
10. Orlando, Fla.10. Orlando, Fla.
11. San Jose, Calif. 11. San Jose, Calif.
12. San Diego 12. San Diego
© 2003 H.S. Dent Foundation
In-Migration Rates in Southeast by StateIn-Migration Rates in Southeast by State1995 to 20001995 to 2000
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%F
lori
da
Geo
rgia
No
rth
Car
olin
aS
ou
th C
aro
lina
Tex
as
Vir
gin
iaT
enn
esse
eA
rkan
sas
Ken
tuck
yM
issi
ssip
pi
Ala
bam
aL
ou
isia
na
Source: US Census Bureau
Total Movers as a % of PopulationTotal Movers as a % of Population
© 2003 H.S. Dent Foundation
Migration into Southeastern StatesMigration into Southeastern States1995 to 20001995 to 2000
Source: US Census Bureau
Domestic Net
Migration From Abroad Total
Total as % of
Population
Florida 607,023 652,606 1,259,629 8.37%
Georgia 340,705 243,421 584,126 7.69%
North Carolina 337,883 196,337 534,220 7.11%
South Carolina 132,205 59,378 191,583 5.11%
Texas 148,240 725,960 874,200 4.54%
Virginia 75,730 205,451 281,181 4.25%
Tennessee 146,314 77,972 224,286 4.22%
Arkansas 42,116 33,657 75,773 3.04%
Kentucky 34,127 45,981 80,108 2.12%
Mississippi 26,930 25,269 52,199 1.98%
Alabama 25,823 48,712 74,535 1.80%
Louisiana -75,759 42,026 -33,733 -0.81%
© 2003 H.S. Dent Foundation
In-Migration Rates in Southwest by StateIn-Migration Rates in Southwest by State1995 to 20001995 to 2000
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
16.00%
18.00%
Nevada Arizona Colorado Utah NewMexico
Source: US Census Bureau
Total Movers as a % of PopulationTotal Movers as a % of Population
© 2003 H.S. Dent Foundation
Migration into Southwestern StatesMigration into Southwestern States1995 to 20001995 to 2000
Source: US Census Bureau
Domestic Domestic Net Net
MigrationMigrationFrom From
AbroadAbroad TotalTotal
Total as % Total as % of of
PopulationPopulation
NevadaNevada 233,934 233,934 75,21275,212 309,146309,146 16.68%16.68%
ArizonaArizona 316,148 316,148 182,982182,982 499,130499,130 10.50%10.50%
ColoradoColorado 162,633 162,633 134,715134,715 297,348297,348 7.42%7.42%
UtahUtah 25,296 25,296 64,66364,663 89,95989,959 4.44%4.44%
New MexicoNew Mexico -29,945 -29,945 38,70638,706 8,7618,761 0.52%0.52%