-
2
2013 08 05
a)ISM
(PMI) 53.7 51.9 53.2
58.3 51.9 4.2% 2,445 2.3%
b) 1.9 32.6 2008 1
29.51M
63.4% 7.4%( 7.5%)c)
8.3% 49.7 2008
0.6%( 0.5%) 1.2%d)
85.1 84 83.9
850
(MBS)
CRB 7/25
LME
BDI
(USDL) 7/31 2013 2 (GDP) 1.7% 1.0%
1.1% GDP 2
(CFTC) 8/2 5,825 28,366
10 7 QE
QE 9 2015/6
2013/08/19
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Nasdaq Equity- US N N O 4
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MSCI Equity- Europe N O N 8
225 Equity- Asia O O N 9
Equity- Asia O O N 10
KOSPI Equity- Asia O N N 11
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Equity- ASEAN O O O 13
JCI Equity- ASEAN U N O 14
SET Equity- ASEAN U N O 15
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RTS Emerging Market N N N 18
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MSCI Emerging Market N N O 20
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Nasdaq TMBA
6 K
Nasdaq
3600
III-3-V
3689
III-3-v
RSI5 87
10 78
2002 K
Nasdaq
2009 2
1
2010 7
3 3
III-3-iv
III-3-v
(Fed)
a)Fed
b)
Fed 2%
c)
0 6.5% 1 2 2.5%d)
3,532 3,779 3,154.96 4,210
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S&P500 TMBA
6 K
S&P500
III-3-v
1689 1706
III-3-v
(RSI)5
8310 74
S&P500
2003 K
SP&500
2009
2012 III-3-i
6/20
III-3-iv
III-3-v
a)ISM
(PMI) 53.7 51.9 53.2 58.3
51.9 4.2% 2,445 2.3%b)
1.9 32.6 2008 1 29.51M
63.4% 7.4%( 7.5%)
c) 8.3% 49.7 2008
0.6%( 0.5%) 1.2%d)
85.1 84 83.9
1,560 1,720 1,539.55 1,760
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TMBA
6 K
15545
III-3-V
15627
Fed
III-3-V
5
RSI 8010 RSI 72
2003 K
2009 3 6516
3
III-3-iii
14,166
6/20FOMC
III-3-v
a)
7 17% 0.5%
7 5 85.1
b)2 VIX
11.98 S&P500
c)
Fed 850 IMF
1.7% Fed 2.3% 2.6%
14,421.00 15,441.00 13,401.00 16,685.00
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2000 TMBA
6 K
III-3-v(1)
KD
KD
2002 K
III-3-v(1)
()
GDP 1.7%
QE
8
QE
8
948 1,060 900 1,130
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MSCI TMBA
6 K
III-5-i(1)
6
2002 K
III-5-i(1)
( 1545 )
GDP -0.3% GDP
7 PMI 50
GDP
( 2014 EPS ) 11.8
500 13.7 2014
7 1.6%
OMT(Outright Monetary Transactions)
1,521 1,580 1,460 1,600
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225 TMBA
6 K
225
3-v
2002 K
225
2009
2012
3-iii
3-iv
0.382x
(1)6 :7.4%(:10.1%)(2)6 :11.8% 6
6 182.3 Billion (3)6
YoY:1.6%(:0.8%)(4)6 3.93%(:4.1%)
13,300 14,500 12,000 15,500
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TMBA
6 K
6
3-iii-(1)
3-iii-(2)
3-iii-(2)-c
3-iii-(3)
2002 K
2008
2011
3-iii-(2)
(1)6:4.1%(:3.9%)(2)7(PMI)50.3
7
(PMI)50.349.8 (Fed)
77.5%9
GDP7.5%7%
A
20,000 23,000 19,000 23,500
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KOSPI TMBA
6 K
KOSPI
1923.38
2002 K
KOSPI
2008
5
C
(1) 2 GDP YoY2.3%(1.5%)(2) 7 YoY-2.6%(-1.3%)
(3)7 45.8 Billion 43.1 Billion
(GDP) 1.1% 2010 2 3 1%
GDP
(ECB)
10
1,750 2,050 1,700 2,200
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TMBA
6 K
8087.1
2-b
2-c
2002 K
2011
9,220
2
7,050
(1) YoY2.3%(1.7%)(2)7PMI
48.63
3
7,800 8,200 7,500 8,400
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TMBA
6 K
9 FEDQE
2002 K
III-3
III-3
III-1
QE
3-ii
9
1.27% PMI 9 QE
(1) 6 (PPI) 2.2% 5
5.3% 10 6 5% 4%(2) 2Q2013
2.1% 1Q 1.9 4Q 1.8% 341.9 4% 3.25
2,120 2,900 (3) 6 1.8% 5
1.6% 4
(4) 106.1
2~3% 8
3,070 3,500 2,945 3,621
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JCI TMBA
6 K
JCI
7 6
9
QE
4,630
III-3-iv JCI
18.98
III-4
2002 K
JCI
2008 III
III-3-iv
JCI 1.77%
(1) 2Q2013 58 124
(2) 7 (CPI) 8.61%
7.5% 6 5.9%(3) 7
(PMI)50.7 6 51 (4) 2Q2013 (FDI) 18.9% 66.7
30.2% 192.8 60.6/132.2
QE
9 QE JCI
4,330 5,200 4,000 5,600
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TMBA TMBA All Rights Reserved 15
SET TMBA
6 K
SET
1,465
III-3-iv
III-4
17.06
2002 K
SET
2008
III
III-3-iv
3 1
SET
SET 4.11%
(1) 6 81.6
(2) 2%
(3) 6 3.38%5 5.25% 2013 0.95%
(4) 8 1 8 10
QE
1,320 1,650 843 1,700
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TMBA
6 K
2002 K
2008
(1).80006674
(2).
0.3%3.3%7PMI50.350.1
(3).
(4).
(1)8/7204
(2)M2
M2
1,849.65 2,334.34 1,849.65 2,448
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TMBA
6 K
2002 K
(1).:160
(2).:1,300
(3).
(4).
(5).7/15
18,467.16 20,443.62 17,026.97 20,443.62
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RTS TMBA
6 K
2002 K
RTS
C
(1).()240
(2).
(3).
(4).:
1,227.01 1,471.56 1,227.01 1,638.08
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TMBA TMBA All Rights Reserved 19
TMBA
6 K
57,098.6
44,107 1.618
0.6181
52,136
2002 K
39,740
(1).6%5.8%(2).(Real)
3012.282512%
(3).PMI48.59
(4).177.3%IPCA3.2%2.28
(1).8/7
44,107 57,098.6 44,107 63,473
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TMBA TMBA All Rights Reserved 20
MSCI TMBA
6 K
MSCI
QE
MSCI
2002 K
MSCI
V-3-iii
V-3
V-3
V-2 V-3-i
MSCI 0.34%
(1) EPFR 7 9.47
(2) PMI 7 (PMI) 50.3 6 50.1 49.8
7 PMI 6 50.4 48.5 50 7 PMI 6 51.7 49.2
2011 50 6 50.3 7 50.1
(3) 61.21
BRIC
PMI 50
883 1,100 850 1,200
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CRB WTI CRB TMBA
6 K
CRB
CRB
2002 K
CRB
2009
III-3-ii
III-2
52
13
III-3-iii
CRB
(1)(Asociacion Nacional del Caf, Anacafe)7/30
96.15%
(2)EIA7/26
0.43M0.12%3.65S&P500
(3)7/25
LME
CRBCRB
CRBCRBIII-3-ii
280 295 270 310
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TMBA TMBA All Rights Reserved 22
BDI TMBA
6 K
BDI 3
W
M
2002 K
2008 BDI
C 5
13
52
BDI
C
BDI (1)
$ 13,710/Day(2)
$ 9,265 /Day(3)/
/$ 9,381 /DayBDI
BDI
1000 1200 700 1100
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S&P 500 Q2 GDP TMBA
6 K
4
108.04
105.65
2002 K
2009
2013 X
IV-b
13
52
(1) 500 S&P500
(2) EIA 7/26 0.43M 0.12% 3.65
S&P500 (3)(USDL) 7/31
2013 2 (GDP) 1.7% 1.0% 1.1%
GDP 2
100 110 90 120
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FOMC TMBA
6 K
2010 8
1,180.50
0.382x
1,300
1,300
1,300
2002 K
1,500
c M
1,100
c
(1)FOMC 7/31
850
(Fed)(2)(IMF) 7/26 6 0.3
996.4 1.4 130.9 3.8 441.5 0.8 3390.6
(3)(CFTC) 8/2
5,825 28,366
S&P500
1,250 1,350 1,200 1,400
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S&P REITs S&P Case/Shiller TMBA
6 K
S&P REITS 2012
12
QE
2002 K
2006
S&P REITS
2009
2012 13
52
S&P
REITS
(1) 6 () 49.7 47.6 48.7
(2) (FHFA)() 5 7.3% 5.4%
(3) 20 S&P/Case-Shiller
5 12.2% 12.4% 2006 3
1.2%
2006 25%
245 280 230 330
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9 QE TMBA
6 K
2.60%
2002 K
0.382x 0.5x
0.5x
10
7 9
QE 2%
7 QE
7
QE
2.4% 2.74% 2.2% 2.9%
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TMBA
6 K
V-4
V-4
V-4
V-5
81.9
V-5
2002 K
2008
5 4
Fed
0-0.25%6 CPI YoY:1.8% CPI YoY:1.6%:9/19
(1).2Q13 GDP YoY:1.7% 1% (2).7 7.4% 2008 12 (3).7
16.2 18.4 (4).7/27 32.6 34.4 (5).7 ISM PMI: 55.4
50.9 7
7 0.1%(63.5%63.4%) 7
Fed 7/31 moderate modestFed
81.40 83.00 81.30 85.25
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PMI 50 TMBA
6 K
II-2
II-1
QE
2003 K
B
2012 1.207
(REFI)0.5%6 HCIP YoY1.6% HCIP YoY1.3%:9/5
(1). 7 PMI:49.8 50 (2). 7 PMI:50.4 49.1 (3). 7 PMI:49.7
48.4 (4) PMI:50.7 48.6 (4) 7 PMI:47 45.4
() PMI 2%
2,700 2,000 130 PMI
REFI 0.5%
1.316 1.338 1.250 1.350
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2Q13 GDP TMBA
6 K
(1 )
QE
C-5
2003 K
2002 2008
08
2008 A
5 2009
B
QE
C
QE
(Repo)0.5%6 CPI YoY2.9% Core CPI YoY2.3%:9/5
(1).7 PMI: 57 51 2010 6 (2). 7 PMI: 54.6 52.5 (3).2Q13 GDP
QoQ: 0.6% (4).Q2 Q1 0.9% 7 PMI
1.485 1.533 1.470 1.564
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TMBA
6 K
2012
2002 K
2008
c
Z
(O/N Cash)2.75%2Q13 CPI YoY2.4%8/6
(1)2Q13 CPI YoY2.4% 2.5 2.5%
(2)2Q13 PPI YoY1.2% 1.6% (3)6 MoM-6.9% 5 -1.1 (4)7
YoY-11.8% 6 -10.5% (5)6 YoY3.1% 5 3.0% 2
(8/6)
0.8850 0.9050 0.8770 0.9310
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TMBA
6 K
M
20
2002 K
(Cash Rate)2.5%2Q13 CPI YoY0.7% 9/3
(1) 2.5% (2)6 4.14 1.05 (3)6
MoM-4.0% 1.3% (4)7 ANZ 52.8 6 50.1
7
7 PMI50.3 49.8
a) 600
b) c) GDP 7.5%
0.7680 0.8030 0.7300 0.8150
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CPI 5 TMBA
6 K
(
) 102.50
103.73
2002 K
2012
(Target UC O/N)0%-0.1%6 CPI YoY0.2%:8/8
(1)6 CPI YoY0.4% 2008 (2)6 3.9% 4.1% (3)6
0.92 5 0.90 5 (4) 6 MoM-3.3% 5 1.9%
-1.5% 7 (5)6 YoY-13.5%
-15.8%
CPI CPI
Fed
97.550 102.50 93.77 103.73
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