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PERSEPSI DAN PEMBUATAN
KEPUTUSAN [email protected]
2014
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Learning Objectives
1. Defineperception and explain the factors that influence it.
2. Explain attribution theory and list the three determinants of attribution.
3. Identify the shortcuts individuals use in making judgments about others.
4. Explain the link between perception and decision-making.5. Apply the rational model of decision-making and contrast it with
bounded rationality and intuition.
6. List and explain the common decision biases or errors.
7. Explain how individual differences and organizational constraints affectdecision-making.
8. Contrast the three ethical decision-criteria.
9. Define creativity and discuss the three-component model of creativity.
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Perception and OB
Perception is a process by which individuals
organize and interpret their sensory impressions
in order to give meaning to their environment. It is important to the study of OB because
peoples behaviors are based on their perception
of what reality is, not on reality itself.
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Factors that influence Perception
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Attribution Theory and
Three determinants of attribution
Attribution theory suggests that when we observe an
individuals behavior, we attempt to determine
whether it was internally or externally caused.
Determination depends on three factors:
Distinctiveness: shows different behaviors in
different situations
Consensus: response in the same as others to samesituation
Consistency: response in the same way over time
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Determinants of attribution
Clarification of the differences between internal
and external causation:
Internally caused - those that are believed tobe under the personal control of the
individual.
Externally caused - resulting from outsidecauses.
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Attribution Theory
E X H I B I T 6-2
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Attribution errors and biases
Fundamental Attribution Error
A tendency to underestimate the influence
of external factors and overestimate theinfluence of internal or personal factors
when making judgments about behavior
of others.
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Attribution errors and biases
Self-serving Bias
The tendency for individuals
to attribute their ownsuccesses to internal factors
while putting the blame for
failures on external factors.
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Shortcuts individuals use in making
judgments about others
Selective Perception
Any characteristic that makes a person,
object, or event stand out will increase theprobability that it will be perceived.
Since we cant observe everything going on
about us, we engage in selective perception. A classic example:
Dearborn and Simon
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Shortcuts individuals use in making
judgments about others
Halo Effect
The halo effect occurs when we draw a
general impression on the basis of a singlecharacteristic.
The reality of the halo effect was confirmed
in a classic study.
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Shortcuts individuals use in making
judgments about others
Contrast Effects
We do not evaluate a person in isolation.
Our reaction to one person is influenced byother persons we have recently encountered.
For example, an interview situation in which one
sees a pool of job applicants can distort perception.
Distortions in any given candidates evaluation can
occur as a result of his or her place in the interview
schedule.
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Shortcuts individuals use in making
judgments about others
Stereotyping
Judging someone on the basis of our perception of
the group to which he or she belongs.
This is a means of simplifying a complex world,
and it permits us to maintain consistency.
From a perceptual standpoint, if people expect to
see these stereotypes, that is what they willperceive.
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Shortcuts individuals use in making
judgments about others
Applications of Shortcuts in Organizations
Employment Interview
Evidence indicates that interviewers makeperceptual judgments that are often
inaccurate.
Agreement among interviewers is oftenpoor.
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Shortcuts individuals use in making
judgments about others
Applications of Shortcuts in Organizations
Performance Expectations
Evidence demonstrates that people will attemptto validate their perceptions of reality, even
when those perceptions are faulty.
Self-fulfilling prophecy or Pygmalion effect
characterizes the fact that peoples expectationsdetermine their behavior. Expectations become
reality.
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Shortcuts individuals use in making
judgments about others
Performance Evaluation
An employees performance appraisal is very much
dependent on the perceptual process.
Many jobs are evaluated in subjective terms.
Subjective measures are, by definition, judgmental.
What the evaluator perceives to be good or bad
employee characteristics or behaviors willsignificantly influence the outcome of the appraisal.
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Perception and Decision-making
Top managers determine goals, products to offer, how
to finance operations, or locate a new plant.
Middle- and lower-level managers determine
production schedules, select employees, and decide
about pay raises.
Non-managerial employees make decisions to come to
work on any given day, the effort to put forward atwork, and to comply with requests made by the boss.
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Perception and Decision-making
Empowering non-managerial employees with job-
related decision-making historically reserved for
managers.
Decision-making occurs as a reaction to a problem.
Every decision requires interpretation and evaluation
of information.
Alternatives will be developed, and the strengths andweaknesses of each will need to be evaluated.
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How individual differences and organizational
constraints affect decision-making
Personality
Conscientiousness
Achievement-Striving
Dutifulness
Gender Mental Ability
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How individual differences and organizational
constraintsaffect decision-making
Cultural Differences
Performance Evaluations
Reward Systems
Formal Regulations
System Imposed Time Constraints Historical Precedents
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Creativity and three-component model of creativity
CREATIVITY
CreativeThinking
Skills
Expertise
Intrinsic
TaskMotivation
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kReAtiViTAs The ability to produce novel and useful
ideas.
Proses penciptaan produk, gagasan,atau prosedur baru dan orisinal, dansecara potensial relevan atau berguna
bagi sebuah organisasi.
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Beberapa Fakta TentangPengambilan Keputusan (1)
Membuat keputusan adalah salahsatu kegiatan manajerial yg paling
penting. Secara implisit, orang cenderung
memilih opsi favorit dalam tahapawal proses pengambilan keputusan.
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Beberapa Fakta TentangPengambilan Keputusan (2)
Keputusan seseorang bisa menjadi biaskarena tendensi untuk tidak
mempertimbangkan semua informasi ygrelevan.
Keputusan kelompok umumnya lebih baikdilakukan terhadap complex decision tasks,sementara keputusan individual biasanyalebih efisien.
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Keputusan (decision)
Sebuah pilihan dari dua atau lebih
alternatif (a choice from two or more
alternatives).
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Proses Pengambilan-Keputusan
Serangkaian langkah yg meliputi identifikasi
masalah, pemilihan satu alternatif, dan
evaluasi keefektifan keputusan(A set of steps including identifying a
problem, selecting an alternative, and
evaluating the decisions effectiveness)
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Masalah (problem)
Kesenjangan antara kondisi saat ini
dan kondisi yang diinginkan
(a discrepancy between an existing anda desired state of affairs).
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TIGA Komponen Keputusan
1. KRITERIA standar yg digunakan pembuatkeputusan utk mengevaluasi alternatif. Bisa jugadisebut kepentingan.
2. ALTERNATIF tindakan spesifik atau pilihan ygdipertimbangkan.
3. KEPERCAYAAN TTG SEBAB AKIBAT pengetahuan
(kognisi) yg menghubungkan alternatif tertentudgn kriteria tertentu (disebut model, teori,kepercayaan, atau asumsi).
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The Decision Making Process Map...
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Langkah-langkah dalam MODELPENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN RASIONAL
1. Definisikan masalah,
2. Identifikasikan kriteria,
3. Alokasikan bobot untuk tiap kriteria,
4. Kembangkan alternatif,
5. Evaluasi alternatif,
6. Pilih alternatif terbaik.
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Keputusan Rasional dibuat berdasarkan
asumsi-asumsi berikut:
Masalah jelas dan tidak ambigu. Yang ingin dicapai adalah satu tujuan yg
didefinisikan secara jelas. Semua alternatif dan konsekuensi diketahui. Preferensi jelas. Preferensi konstan dan stabil.
Tidak ada kendala biaya dan waktu.Most decisions in the real world dont follow the
rational model.
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MODEL RASIONAL dalam
PENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN
Problem
Identifikasikan dan
Definisikan Masalah
Kembangkan
Alternatif
A1
A2
A3
A4
An
Evaluasi
Alternatif
+
A1 A1
A2 A2
An An
Criteria
Beri Bobot
Kriteria
T E C H
Tetapkan Kriteria
Keputusan
Choice
Buat Keputusan
Optimal
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Problem
Identifikasikan dan
Definisikan Masalah
Para wiraniaga saya
memerlukan komputer baru
T E C H
Tetapkan KriteriaKeputusan
Harga
Berat
Garansi
Tipe layar Keandalan
Ukuran layar
Criteria
Beri BobotKriteria
A
Keandalan
Ukuran layar Garansi
Berat
Harga
Jenis layar
10
8 5
5
4
3
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Kembangkan
alternatif
Acer Compaq NEC
Fujitsu SonyToshiba Dell
Evaluasi
alternatif
Acer Compaq NEC
Fujitsu SonyToshiba Dell
Choice
Buat KeputusanOptimal
Acer Compaq NEC
Fujitsu SonyToshiba Dell
Implementasialternatif
A
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Nilai berdasarkan kriteria
Model
Kean-
dalan
Ukuran
layarGaransi Berat Harga
Tipe
layar
AcerTravelmate
8 3 5 10 3 5
Compaq
Pressario
8 5 10 5 6 5
NEC Versa 10 8 5 10 3 10
FujitsuLifebook
8 5 5 10 3 10
Sony Vaio6 8 5 10 6 10
ToshibaSatellite
10 8 5 5 3 10
Dell 2 10 5 10 10 10
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Contoh Teknik Evaluasi Alternatif:Analitycal Hierarchy Matrix
0 0 0
0
0 0
1
1
1
1 1
1
A B C D
Alternative A
Alternative B
Alternative C
Alternative D
Alternatives
0
2
3
Row
Sum
4th
2nd
1st
Rank
1 3rd
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Thomas Saaty's
Analytical Hierarchy Matrix
Cantumkan alternatif dlm kolom dan baris spt dalam matriks.Mulai dr Alternatif A, bergeraklah ke setiap kolom danbandingkan tiap alternatif dgn alternatif lainnya.
Bilaalternatif yg sedang dipertimbangkan lebih baik dari yglain, berilah alternatif itu skor 1.
Bilaalternatif lebih rendahnya nilainya dari yg lain, berilahalternatif itu skor 0.
Tambahkanskor utk tiap baris/alternatif; skor tertinggi adalah
alternatif yg dinilai paling baik berdasarkan kriteria yg Andagunakan. Dlm matriks di atas, Alternatif Cmemiliki skortertinggi. Jadi, inilah alternatif yg dinilai paling baik.
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RASIONALITAS TERBATAS
Rasionalitas Terbatas
Individu membuat keputusan dgn membangun model
yg disederhanakan, yg mengekstrak unsur-unsur
esensial dari masalah tanpa memandang seluruh
kompleksitas masalah tsb.
Satisficing
Mengidentifikasikan sebuah solusi yang lumayanbaik (good enough).
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MODEL RASIONALITAS TERBATAS
Tentukankebutuhan
utk membuatkeputusan
SederhanakanMasalah
TetapkanKriteria yg
Memuaskan
Identifikasikanalternatifyg
terbatas
Bandingkanalternatif
dgn kriteria
PerluasPencarianAlternatif
Pilih AlternatifPertama yangCukup Baik
Adaalternatif yg
memuaskan?
Ya
Tidak
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The common decision biases or errors
Overconfidence Bias
Individuals whose intellectual and interpersonal
abilities are weakest are most likely to
overestimate their performance and ability.
Anchoring Bias
Fixating on initial information as a starting point
and failing to adequately adjust for subsequent
information.
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The common decision biases or errors
Confirmation Bias
Type of selective perception.
Seek out information that reaffirms pastchoices, and discount information that
contradicts past judgments.
Availability Bias Tendency for people to base judgments on
information that is readily available.
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The common decision biases or errors
Escalation of Commitment
Staying with a decision even when there is
clear evidence that its wrong.
Randomness Error
Decision-making becomes impaired when
we try to create meaning out of randomevents.
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The common decision biases or errors
Risk Aversion
Risk-averse employees will stick with the
established way of doing their jobs, rather than
taking a chance on innovative or creative
methods.
Hindsight Bias
Tendency to believe falsely that one hasaccurately predicted the outcome of an event,
after that outcome is actually known.
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Reducing Biases and Errors
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Pembuatan Keputusan Secara Intuitif
(Intuitive Decision Making)
Suatu proses bawah-sadar
(subconscious) dalam membuat
keputusan berdasarkan pengalamandan accumulated judgment.
Secara sadar tidakbersandar padaproses berpikir rasional atau linier.
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Rational model of decision-making
and intuition
Intuition
Intuition occurs outside conscious thought; it relies on
holistic associations, or links between disparate pieces
of information; its fast; and its affectively charged,
meaning it usually engages the emotions.
The key is neither to abandon nor rely solely on
intuition but to supplement it with evidence and goodjudgment.
A k k I i i
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Aspek-aspek Intuisi
Managers makedecisions on ethical
values or culture
Values or ethics-based decisions
INTUITION
Managers make decisionsbased on their past
experiences
Experience-baseddecisions
Affect-initiateddecisions
Cognitive-based
decisions
Subconscious mental
processing
Managers use data fromsubconscious mind to help them
make decisions
Managers make decisionsbased on skills, knowledge, and
training
Managers makedecisions based onfeelings or emotion
Sumber: L.A. Burke & M.K. Miller. 1999
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How common is
intuitive decision making?
Sebuah survei thd manajer dan karyawan
mengungkapkan bahwa sepertigadari
mereka menyandarkan diri pada intuisi,atau gut feeling, ketimbang pengambilan
keputusan secara rasional (kognitif).
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Perbandingan Tipe Thinkingdan Feeling
Characteristic Thinking types Feeling types
Focus Logic of situation, truth,organization principles
Human values and needs,harmony, feelings, emotions
Time orientation Past, present, future Past
Work environment Businesslike, impersonal, treatothers fairly, well organized
Naturally friendly, personalemphasizes harmony, care andconcern for others
Strengths Good at logical organizations,tends to be firm and tough-minded,rational, objective, predicts logical
results of decisions
Enjoys pleasing others,sympathetic, loyal, draws outthe feelings of others, takes
interest in people as people
Possible weaknesses Overly analytical, unemotional, tooserious, often rigid, may try toimpose ideas
Sentimental, may postponeunpleasant task, may avoidconflict
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PRAKONDISIPENYELESAIAN MASALAH
Ada KESENJANGAN
Ada KESADARANttg kesenjangan
Ada MOTIVASI
Ada KEMAMPUANdan SUMBER
DAYA
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Reaksi terhadap masalah
Complacency: tak melihat tanda-tanda
Defensive avoidance: abaikan pentingnya masalah
atau abaikan tanggung jawab utk bertindak
rasionalisasi (Tak mungkin terjadi pd saya)
penundaan (Bisa diurus nanti )
pengalihan (Bukan urusan saya)
Panic
Deciding to decide
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Bagaimana Menemukan Masalah?
PENYIMPANGAN DARI
PENGALAMAN MASA LALU
PENYIMPANGAN DARIRENCANA
ORANG atau PIHAK LAIN
KINERJA PESAING
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Three ethical decision-criteria
Utilitarian criterion--decisions are made solely on the
basis of their outcomes or consequences.
Focus on rights--calls on individuals to make
decisions consistent with fundamental liberties and
privileges as set forth in documents such as the Bill of
Rights.
Justice--impose and enforce rules fairly andimpartially to ensure or an equitable distribution of
benefits and costs.
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Ethics and National Culture
There are no global ethical standards.
The ethical principles of global organizations
that reflect and respect local cultural normsare necessary for high standards and
consistent practices.