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Future CAP for Scotland: Challenges for post 2013
Climate Change
Future CAP for Scotland: Challenges for post 2013
Climate Change
Graham Kerr
Group Manager, SAC Consulting
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Scope of PresentationScope of Presentation
• Climate Change effects and impacts
• Agricultural emissions
• Scottish mitigation and adaptation
• Future CAP: Scottish debate so far
• Future CAP: European debate so far
• Future CAP for Scotland to address climate change challenges post 2013
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+ 2 - 6°C
+ 1 - 2°C
+ 1 - 3°C
+ 1 - 3°C
Global temperature rise:+2°CGlobal temperature rise:+2°C
3Source: Met Office
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+ 8 - 16 °C
+ 5 - 7 °C
+ 3 - 8 °C
+ 4 - 8 °C
Source: Met Office
Global temperature rise:+4°CGlobal temperature rise:+4°C
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Source: Cline 2007, http://maps.grid.no.go/graphic/projected-agriculture-in-2080-due-to-climate-change
Change in Farming: ProductionChange in Farming: Production
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Source: UKCP09
Changes in mean precipitation to 2080, 50% probability estimate
Winter Summer
Change in farming : RainfallChange in farming : Rainfall
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Source: UKCP09
Change in Farming: TemperatureChange in Farming: Temperature
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Emissions from AgricultureEmissions from Agriculture
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MtCO2e
Source: Defra 2007
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Emissions from AgricultureEmissions from Agriculture
9Source: NAEI 2010
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Emissions from AgricultureEmissions from Agriculture
10Source: NAEI 2010
Agriculture contributes a disproportionate amount of high impact GHGArable = 20% of global N2O, Livestock = 37% of global CH4 and 65% of N2O
Agricultures share of non CO2 emissions is 47%
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Mitigation: Abatement Cost Curves Mitigation: Abatement Cost Curves
Height = cost effectiveness
Width = abatement potential
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Mitigation: Abatement Cost Curves Mitigation: Abatement Cost Curves
Cheap option, big emission savings
Expensive options, small emission savings
Financial savings
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Farming for a Better ClimateFarming for a Better Climate
• Using energy and fuels efficiently
• Developing renewable energy
• Locking carbon into the soil and vegetation
• Optimising the application of fertilisers and manures
• Optimising livestock management and storage of waste
13www.farmingforabetterclimate.org
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Climate Change Focus FarmsClimate Change Focus Farms
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Current Policy InitiativesCurrent Policy Initiatives
• Climate Change Adaptation
• Scottish Forestry Strategy
• Scottish Land Use Strategy
• Agriculture and Climate Change Stakeholder Group
• Climate Change Research
• PLANET Scotland• Scottish Greenhouse
Gas Tool Project• SRDP
– Grants and support– Skills Development
Funds
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Climate Change – the contextClimate Change – the context
1. Freedom and flexibility
2. Sustainable food production with environmental benefits
3. Capital Grants
4. Wider uptake of environmental schemes
5. LEADER
More stringent GAEC standards ruled out
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Pack Report: EnvironmentPack Report: Environment
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European PerspectiveEuropean Perspective
• The aim of this Reform is also to improve the overall environmental performance of the CAP (Dacian Ciolos, January 2011)
• Objective 2: Sustainable management of natural resources and climate action– Enhanced provision of public goods– Green growth through innovation– Pursue climate change mitigation and adaptation
actions to allow response to climate change
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European Policy OptionsEuropean Policy Options
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Option 1
Option 2
Option 3
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Policy OptionsPolicy Options
• Voluntary agreements• Information Provision• Grants, subsidies, charges, levies and taxes
– Mix of incentives and penalties– Links subsidies and incentives to environmental objectives– Carbon tax
• Cap and trade– Price emissions and incentives to find efficient ways to lower
emissions
• Direct Regulation– Emissions standards or limits restricting/requiring certain farming
practice
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Options?Options?
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