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PROF. GREGORY NEMET
ACCELERATING INNOVATION IN CO2
REMOVAL
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1. Want CHEAP, CLEAN,RELIABLE
ENERGY TRANSITIONS ARE HARD 2
3. CO2 in atmosphere for >100 yrs
2. Past transitions took decades
1850 2010
OilWood Coal
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REASONS FOR OPTIMISM1. technology
is improving2. emerging
collective action
3. learning from policy experience
4. success in other areas
5. adaptationincentives strong
6. co-benefits: local and immediate
7. examples of low-energy, high-HDI
8. Youth and young adults
3
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LONG TERM COST REDUCTIONS 4
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CARBON DIOXIDE REMOVAL
5
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GIGATONS OF CO2 REMOVAL NEEDED
Source: Nemet et al. / Minx et al./ Fuss et al. 2018, Environmental Research Letters 6
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TAXONOMY OF APPROACHES
7
Source: Nemet et al. / Minx et al./ Fuss et al. 2018, Environmental Research Letters
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CDR COVERAGE IN IPCC ASSESSMENT REPORTS
8
AR+OF Biological All major CDR
New CDR
EXPANDING RESEARCH AREA
Source: Nemet et al. / Minx et al./ Fuss et al. 2018, Environmental Research Letters
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INNOVATION FRAMEWORK‣Approach: code CDR articles by stage of innovation
Source: Nemet et al. / Minx et al./ Fuss et al. 2018, Environmental Research Letters
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2050: POTENTIAL FOR GIGATONS AFFORDABLY
11
Enhanced
Weathering
DACCS
Afforestation
Soil Carbon
Sequestration
BECCS
Biochar
Source: Nemet et al. / Minx et al./ Fuss et al. 2018, Environmental Research Letters
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TECH READINESS, SIDE EFFECTS, PERMANENCE
12
Source: Nemet et al. / Minx et al./ Fuss et al. 2018, Environmental Research Letters
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13DIRECT AIR CAPTURE
Source: Nemet et al. / Minx et al./ Fuss et al. 2018, Environmental Research LettersPotential (GT/yr)
Cost
($/t)
• Very large removal potential
• No clear side effects
• Capital costs• Energy use• Solvent use
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LEARNING FROM SUCCESSFUL TECHNOLOGIES
14
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BOOK PROJECT
1. How did solar become cheap?
2. Why did it take so long?
3. How can it be a model
15
This study was made possible by a grant from Carnegie Corporation of New York. The statements made and views expressed are solely the responsibility of the author.
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16MILESTONES 10-4 COST
Source: Nemet 2019, How Solar Energy Became Cheap: A Model for Low-Carbon Innovation. Routledge.
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PROJECT INDEPENDENCE 1ST PV LEARNING CURVE
Source: Nemet 2019, How Solar Energy Became Cheap: A Model for Low-Carbon Innovation. Routledge.
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CREATING TECHNOLOGY
MAKING IT CHEAP
BUILDING A MARKET
SCIENTIFIC UNDERSTANDING
NICHE MARKETS LEARNING BY DOING
EVOLVING R&D FOCI MODULAR SCALEITERATIVE UPSCALING
KNOWLEDGE SPILLOVERS
ROBUST POLICY SUPPORT
DELAYED SYSTEM INTEGRATION
HOW DID SOLAR GET CHEAP?
Source: Nemet 2019, How Solar Energy Became Cheap: A Model for Low-Carbon Innovation. Routledge.
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PV AS A MODEL FOR LOW-CARBON INNOVATION
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WE NEED MULTIPLE MODELS 20
Source: Nemet 2019, How Solar Energy Became Cheap: A Model for Low-Carbon Innovation. Routledge.
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HOW TO SPEED UP INNOVATION
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PV ADOPTION HAS BEEN SLOW22
World = 1.6%
Source: Nemet 2019, How Solar Energy Became Cheap: A Model for Low-Carbon Innovation. Routledge.
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23ACCELERATING INNOVATION
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ACCELERATING DIRECT AIR CAPTURE 24
Scale-up needed for 1% of emissions by 2025 vs PV actuals
Source: Nemet 2019, How Solar Energy Became Cheap: A Model for Low-Carbon Innovation. Routledge.
0
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
OU
TP
UT
/ Y
EAR
(M
W O
R 1
00
0S)
SharpSharp DAC
Q-CellsSuntech
Jinko
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HOW TO ACCELERATE THE MODEL 25
TECHNOLOGY PUSH
DEMAND PULL
KNOWLEDGE FLOWS
CONTINUOUS R&D
TRAINED WORKFORCE
PUBLIC PROCUREMENT
CODIFY KNOWLEDGE
KNOWLEDGE SPILLOVERS
GLOBAL MOBILITY
ROBUST MARKETS DISRUPTIVE PRODUCTION
POLITICAL ECONOMY
Source: Nemet 2019, How Solar Energy Became Cheap: A Model for Low-Carbon Innovation. Routledge.