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Scottish Public Opinion Monitor August 2014
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Should Scotland be an independent country?
Referendum voting intention
Base: All (1,006); all certain to vote (831). Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July – 3rd August 2014
Yes 37%
No 52%
Undecided 11%
All voters
Yes 40%
No 54%
Undecided 7%
Certain to vote
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Should Scotland be an independent country?
Referendum voting intention – recent trend
Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14
No
Yes
Undecided
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Should Scotland be an independent country?
Voting intention excluding undecided
Base: All excluding undecided (893); all certain to vote excluding undecided (771). Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July – 3rd
August 2014
Yes 42%
No 58%
All voters
Yes 42%
No 58%
Certain to vote
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Should Scotland be an independent country?
Referendum voting intention excluding undecided –
recent trend
Base: All certain to vote excluding undecided. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14
No
Yes
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Should Scotland be an independent country?
Voting intention amongst those certain to vote and
definitely decided how they will vote
Base: All certain to vote and definitely decided (683). Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July – 3rd August 2014
Yes 41%
No 59%
All definitely decided and certain to vote
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Feb-13 May-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14
No
Yes
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And, how likely would you be to vote in an immediate referendum, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote and 1 that you would be absolutely certain NOT to vote?
Turnout is likely to be high
Base: All. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14
55+
All
16-24
% Absolutely certain to vote
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33% Scots who…
may not vote (19%)
will vote but are undecided (5%)
will vote but may change their vote (9%)
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17% 20% 15%
83% 80% 85%
All Yes voters No voters
Definitelydecided
May changemind
Have you definitely decided to vote in this way or is there a chance you may change your mind before you vote?
Definitely decided or might you change your mind?
Base: All giving a voting intention (893). Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July – 3rd August 2014
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14
% Definitely decided
No
Yes
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Which way are you most inclined to vote?
Which way are undecided voters leaning?
Base: All undecided (113). Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July – 3rd August 2014
Yes 29%
No 23%
Undecided 47%
All undecided voters
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If you still haven’t made up your mind on the day of the referendum, which of the following are you most likely to do?
What will voters do if they haven’t made up their
minds by polling day?
Base: All who are undecided or may change their mind (254). Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July – 3rd August 2014
Vote Yes 26%
Vote No 38%
Not vote at all 22%
Other/Don't know 14%
All who are undecided or may change their mind
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Long-term trend of support for independence
Data taken from MORI and Ipsos MORI polling (1999-07 data taken from Scottish Social Attitudes Survey)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013
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Voting intention by gender
Base: All certain to vote (831). Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July – 3rd August 2014
47%
48%
Yes
No
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Men Women
% voting Yes
33%
59%
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40%
53%
7%
Voting intention by age group
Base: All certain to vote (831). Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July – 3rd August 2014
Yes
No
44%
54%
56%
36%
8%
33%
60%
7%
16-24 25-34
35-54 55+ 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
16-24* 25-34 35-54 55+
*Jan 2012 – May 2013 this was 18-24 year olds
% voting Yes
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Voting intention by levels of deprivation
Base: All certain to vote (831). Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July – 3rd August 2014
43%
56%
26%
66%
Most deprived areas Least deprived areas
Yes
No
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Most deprived areas Least deprived areas
% voting Yes
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95% 4% 90% 5%
Voting intention by party support
Base: All certain to vote (831). Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July – 3rd August 2014
Yes
No
84%
11%
18%
77% 5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
SNP Lab Con Lib Dem
% voting Yes
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Impact of the Commonwealth
Games
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Commonwealth Games
Very closely 27%
Fairly closely 42%
Not very closely 16%
Not closely at all 15%
How closely, if at all, have you been following the games?
Base: All. Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July – 3rd August 2014
Very successful
67%
Fairly successful
29%
Fairly/very unsuccessful
1%
Don't know 3%
Based on what you have read, seen or heard, how successful or unsuccessful do you think the
Games have been overall?
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What impact, if any, do you think the Games will have on how you plan to vote in the referendum?
Impact of the Games on referendum voting
More likely to vote Yes
7%
More likely to vote No
3%
Make no difference
89%
14%
1%
10%
0%
5%
1%
Yes voters No voters Undecidedvoters
More likely Yes More likely No
Base: All. Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July – 3rd August 2014
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Scottish Parliament voting
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If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you use your first vote?
Voting intention for Scottish Parliament elections
Base: All aged 18+ giving a voting intention (851); all aged 18+ certain to vote and giving a voting intention (632). Data collected among 1,006 Scottish
adults 16+, 28th July – 3rd August 2014
SNP 36%
Lab 34%
Cons 16%
Lib Dem 6%
Green 4%
Others 3%
All giving a voting intention
SNP 39%
Lab 32%
Cons 17%
Lib Dem 6%
Green 3%
Others 3%
Certain to vote
SNP lead
+2
SNP lead
+7
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If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you use your first vote?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60 Labour SNP Conservative Liberal Democrats Other
Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults.
Voting intention for Scottish Parliament elections
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Perceptions of key figures
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How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as First Minister/Leader of the Better Together Campaign?
Salmond versus Darling: head to head
Satisfied 49%
Dissatisfied 43%
Don't know 8%
Base: All. Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July – 3rd August 2014
Satisfied 37%
Dissatisfied 44%
Don't know 18%
Net
satisfaction
+6
Net
satisfaction
-7
Alex Salmond Alistair Darling
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How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as First Minister/Leader of the Better Together Campaign?
Salmond versus Darling: satisfaction among voters
83%
23%
56%
18%
54%
24%
Yes voters No voters Undecided voters
% Satisfied
Salmond Darling
Base: All. Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July – 3rd August 2014
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Base: All. Data collected among 1,006 Scottish adults 16+, 28th July – 3rd August 2014
Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as First Minister/Prime Minister/Leader of Scottish
Labour/the Scottish Liberal Democrats/the Scottish Conservatives?
Satisfaction with party leaders
49% 43%
8%
Alex Salmond
Net
rating
+6
34%
17%
50%
Patrick Harvie
40%
34%
27%
Johann Lamont
23%
34%
43%
Willie Rennie
34%
36%
31%
Ruth Davidson
30%
64%
6%
David Cameron
Net
rating
+17
Net
rating
+6
Net
rating
-11
Net
rating
-2
Net
rating
-34
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How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as First Minister//Prime Minister/Leader of Scottish
Labour/the Scottish Liberal Democrats/the Scottish Conservatives?
Satisfaction with party leaders trend
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 May-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14
Alex Salmond Johann Lamont Ruth Davidson Willie Rennie Patrick Harvie David Cameron
Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults.
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How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as First Minister//Prime Minister/Leader of Scottish
Labour/the Scottish Liberal Democrats/the Scottish Conservatives?
Net Satisfaction with party leaders trend
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Aug-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 May-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14
Alex Salmond Johann Lamont Ruth Davidson Willie Rennie Patrick Harvie David Cameron
Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults.
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brand logo
here
Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as Deputy First Minister/Leader of the Better
Together Campaign?
18%
44%
37%
16%
36%
48%
Don't know
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
Satisfaction with campaign leaders
15%
31%
54%
11%
14%
76%
Don't know
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
All Own campaign supporters
Nicola Sturgeon Alistair Darling
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Technical details
• This presents the topline results from Scotland
• Results are based on a survey of 1,006 respondents
(adults aged 16+) conducted by telephone
• Fieldwork dates: 28th July – 3rd August 2014
• Data are weight by: age, sex and working status using
census data; tenure using SHS data; and public-private
sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly
Public Sector Employment series data
• Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to
computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of
“don’t know” categories
• Results are based on all respondents (1,006) unless
otherwise stated
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Thank you [email protected] | 0131 240 3269
[email protected] | 0131 240 3264 @IpsosMORIScot