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INDIRECT EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON INDIRECT EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON
MEDITERRANEAN BIODIVERSITY: THE ROLE MEDITERRANEAN BIODIVERSITY: THE ROLE
OF LAND USE CHANGES AND FIREOF LAND USE CHANGES AND FIRE
11th INTECOL Congress, Ecology: Into the next 100 years11th INTECOL Congress, Ecology: Into the next 100 years, ,
London 2013London 2013
11th INTECOL Congress, Ecology: Into the next 100 years11th INTECOL Congress, Ecology: Into the next 100 years, ,
London 2013London 2013
Lluís Brotons & Miquel de CáceresLluís Brotons & Miquel de Cáceres
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• Species distribution models (SDMs) and biodiversity projections to future environmental conditions… and why they fail (sometimes…)
• Challenges of building biodiversity projections. Including multiple environmental pressures and matching models to ecological processes.
• Biodiversity projections in Mediterranean dynamic landscapes. Fire regimes and the indirect effects of climate change on trees and birds.
Talk outline
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• Objective: anticipate potential impacts of global change on biodiversity distribution patterns.
• Temporal and spatial projections SDMs have had an enormous influence in global change science.
• They have allowed predictions of large scale biodiversity changes using simple and widely available data!!!!
• Climate change and invasive species impact at large spatial scales influential applications…
Projecting distribution dynamics
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Gil-Tena et al. 2009. Global Change Biology 15:474-Gil-Tena et al. 2009. Global Change Biology 15:474-485.485.
Global change and biodiversity.
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• SDMs summarise, through simple statistical relationships, very complex, interacting ecological processes.
• When spatial dynamics are to be predicted SDMs may perform poorly because they are unlikely to adequately capture relevant processes at all spatial scales.
• Challenge: how to adequately integrate ecological and environmental processes relevant to distribution changes?
What’s the problem… and the challenge
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Exte
rnal
dyn
amic
s
Static
Clim
ate
scen
ario
s
Projecting distribution dynamics
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Impo
sed
Projecting distribution dynamics
Exte
rnal
dyn
amic
s
Static
Hab
itat
filt
erin
g
Clim
ate
scen
ario
s
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Intrinsic
Internal dynamics
Population dynamicsDispersal
Projecting distribution dynamics
Exte
rnal
dyn
amic
s
Static
Clim
ate
scen
ario
sIm
posed
Hab
itat
filt
erin
g
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Species interactions
Projecting distribution dynamics
Exte
rnal
dyn
amic
s
Static
Clim
ate
scen
ario
s
Intrinsic
Internal dynamics
Population dynamicsDispersal
Impo
sed
Hab
itat
filt
erin
g
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Species interactions
EvolutionPhysiology
Phenotypic plasticity
Projecting distribution dynamics
Exte
rnal
dyn
amic
s
Static
Clim
ate
scen
ario
s
Intrinsic
Internal dynamics
Population dynamicsDispersal
Impo
sed
Hab
itat
filt
erin
g
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Global change and biodiversity.
Climate change
Disturbance regimes
Land use changes/managem
ent
Invasive species
Biodiversity
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Mediterranean landscapes
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Novel, changing fire regimes
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Global change and biodiversity.
Biodiversity (trees, birds)Climate
change
Fire
Land abandonment
Invasive species
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Relationships pressures - biodiversity
Climate Land use Fire Trees Birds
Climate
Land use
Fire
Trees
Birds
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Climate Land use Fire Trees Birds
Climate
Land use
Fire
Trees
Birds
Relationships pressures - biodiversity
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Climate Land use Fire Trees Birds
Climate
Land use
Fire
Trees
Birds
Relationships pressures - biodiversity
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Climate Land use Fire Trees Birds
Climate
Land use
Fire
Trees
Birds
Relationships pressures - biodiversity
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Landscape dynamics model(100 m, 1 year step)
Fire submodel Vegetation submodel
Brotons et al. (2013) PLoS ONE 8(5): e62392Brotons et al. (2013) PLoS ONE 8(5): e62392
- Fire regime- Ignition probability- Fire spread model- Elevation
- Tree dominance- Orientation- Bioclimatic region.
Succession
FirePost-fire regeneration
Pinus halepensisP. nigraP. pineaP. sylvestrisQuercus suberOtros Q.Q. ilexOtras coníferas
Otras especiesMatorralPradosCultivosAguaSuelo urbanoSuelo desnudo
Landscape and tree modelling
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Landscape and tree modelling
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• We know from previous studies that fire impact has an important effect on species distribution via habitat filtering.
• New habitat constrained by dispersal limitations.
Bird responses to dynamic landscapes.
Vallecillo, S. et al. 2009. Ecological Applications.Vallecillo, S. et al. 2009. Ecological Applications.
Brotons, et al. 2008. Journal of Applied Ecology.Brotons, et al. 2008. Journal of Applied Ecology.
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Non-spatial parameters
Static spatial inputs
Dynamic spatial inputs
Combining dynamic landscape models and species distribution models
LANDSCAPE DYNAMICS
Landscape modelPerturbation and
vegetation processes
DYNAMIC LANDSCAPE LAYERS (dominant tree species)
DYNAMIC SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODEL
DYNAMIC SPECIES DISTRIBUTION RESPONSES(Bird occupancy)
Species potential distributionHabitat model
Species habitatcoefficients
Dispersal parameters
Dynamic, processbased model (dispersal)
Hybrid metamodelling.
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Changes in fire regime.
Brotons et al. (2013) PLoS ONE 8(5): e62392Brotons et al. (2013) PLoS ONE 8(5): e62392
Fire supression treatments
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Changes in forest type.
De Cáceres & Brotons. (2013) J. Biog.De Cáceres & Brotons. (2013) J. Biog.
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Changes in forest type.
De Cáceres & Brotons. (2013) J. Biog.De Cáceres & Brotons. (2013) J. Biog.
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Changes in forest type.
De Cáceres & Brotons. (2013) J. Biog.De Cáceres & Brotons. (2013) J. Biog.
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Changes in bird communities.
De Cáceres & Brotons. (2013) J. Biog.De Cáceres & Brotons. (2013) J. Biog.
v v v
vv
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• Better matching objectives, ecological processes and key environmental pressures and integration when buiding biodiversity scenarios.
• Keep models simple and look for a way around to implement your processes externally.
• Identify key internal processes (feedbacks) relevant to your context and link them to your external processes via meta-modelling.
• Keep in mind data availability when designing predictive studies.
How to move from here…
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• In dynamic landscapes such as the Mediterranean, indirect climate change effects can have major impact via changes in disturbance regimes.
• Initial condition and lags in past environmental pressures (land abandonment) important in determining future changes.
• Scenarios of future biodiversity change should account for major drivers of environmental change (including key indirect pathways and relevant feedbacks) at regional scales.
• This is a major challenge!!!
How to move from here…
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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
• Collaborators:
Mariee Josée Fortin
Andrew Fall
Núria Aquilué
Núria Roura- Pascual
Javier Retana
Lluís Coll