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I N GR ED I ENT S
Future Flavor Trends in FoodNew opportunities in sensory innovation
By Carol Raithatha
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Carol Raithatha
Carol Raithatha is the director of Carol Raithatha Limited, a UK based consultancy
specializing in advice, training and project work within the areas of sensory testing,
and consumer and product research. Carols career has focused on food and its
perception; flavor being an important aspect of this. She has worked with a range of
food manufacturers including Associated British Foods and Cadbury Schweppes
among many others. Carol is a Fellow of the Institute of Food Science and Technology,
and a committee member of its Professional Food Sensory Group. She is also a
committee member of the Society of Chemical Industry Consumer and Sensory
Research Group and an Associate Member of the Market Research Society.
Copyright 2008 Business Insights Ltd This Management Report is published by Business Insights Ltd. All rights reserved. Reproduction or redistribution of this Management Report in any form for any purpose is expressly prohibited without the prior consent of Business Insights Ltd. The views expressed in this Management Report are those of the publisher, not of Business Insights. Business Insights Ltd accepts no liability for the accuracy or completeness of the information, advice or comment contained in this Management Report nor for any actions taken in reliance thereon. While information, advice or comment is believed to be correct at the time of publication, no responsibility can be accepted by Business Insights Ltd for its completeness or accuracy.
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Table of Contents
Future Flavor Trends in Food
Executive Summary 10
Drivers and the bigger picture 10 Top flavors by food sector 11 The role of food and flavor manufacturers 12 Key trends in food flavors 13 Conclusions 14
Chapter 1 Introduction 16
What is this report about and what is its scope? 16 Research methodology 16 Flavors in food defined 17 Report structure 17
Chapter 2 Drivers and the bigger picture 20
Summary 20 Introduction 21 Travel and immigration 22 Increasing travel means increased awareness of global flavors 22 Ethnic food continues to gain popularity 23 Nostalgia and slow food 25 The role of established brands 25 Memories on the plate 27 The slow life 27 Ethics and carbon awareness 28 Ethical issues are affecting food and drink purchasing 28 Environmental concerns are becoming an issue in food choice 30 Ethical and green flavors for the future 30
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Cooking, entertaining and eating out 31 The business of cooking and entertaining 31 Eating out continues to increase 32 Consumers as connoisseurs and experts 33 Snacking and single item meals 35 More snacking is predicted in the US and Europe 35 Complex mixtures and ethnic influences 35 Natural provides opportunities 37 Multi-sensory experiences 38 A virtual world 38 Sensory touchpoints and signatures 38 Innovation in the kitchen 39 Health and wellbeing 41 Eating healthier 41 Flavors in reduced foods 42 Flavor and functional food and ingredients 43 The effect of the older generation 45 Demographic shifts 45 Foods designed specifically for the elderly 46 The industry view 48
Chapter 3 Top flavors by food sector 50
Summary 50 Introduction 51 Bakery and cereals 51 Top and fast growth flavors 51 Chocolate trends 54 Grain and seed trends 59 Wafers 62 The industry view 63 Confectionery 64 Top and fast growth flavors 65 The rise of dark chocolate 67 Exotic and antioxidant fruits 73 Fruity mint in chewing gum 75 The industry view 76 Dairy 78 Top and fast growth flavors 78 Strawberry 80 Other berries/darker fruits 80 Exotic fruits 82 Cheese 83 The industry view 83 Snacks 85
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Top and fast growth flavors 85 Chocolate and dark chocolate snack bars 87 Nut trends in snacks 89 Exotic fruits 90 Chip flavors 92 The industry view 93 Cross-sector assessment 94
Chapter 4 The role of food and flavor manufacturers 98
Summary 98 Introduction 99 Company type 99 Influential food manufacturers 101 Danone 103 Nestl 105 Kraft 107 Flavor manufacturers 110 Global presence 112 Technologies to develop, extract and deliver flavor 115
Biotechnology to produce flavors 115 Flavor creation 117 Flavor delivery in food 119
Novel flavors and ingredients 120 Taste modulators 120 Sensates and physical effects 122
Insight, added value and innovative services 124 Market and consumer insight 125 Sensory and psychophysical testing 127 Culinary expertise and the restaurant experience 129 Training 131
Chapter 5 Key trends in food flavors 134
Summary 134 Introduction 135 Health 136 Natural 137 High antioxidant flavors 144 Superfruits 149 Flavors in reduced foods 154 Alternative types of sweetness 160
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Indulgence and experimentation 165 Ethnic and international 166 Provenance and varietal 171 Fusion flavors, pairings and novel sensory 174 Homemade and traditional 183 Other emerging trends 185 Flavors for the elderly 185 Ethical flavors 186
Chapter 6 Conclusions 188
Summary 188 Introduction 189 Key opportunities 189 Natural and functional 190
Bolder natural and reduced foods 190 Vegetables for sweetness and functionality 190
New antioxidant flavors 191 Dark chocolate 191 Newer superfruits 192
Ethnic and international 192 Dominance of the Mediterranean and Asia 192 Ethnic combinations 193
Flavor experiences 193 Herbs, spices and heat blends 194 Stimulating flavors 194
Index 195 References 197
List of Figures Figure 2.1: Consumer psychology and behavior drivers 21 Figure 2.2: Purchasing of ethical or socially responsible grocery items 29 Figure 2.3: The propensity of European and US shoppers who have taken active steps to eat
healthier in the last 12 months, 2006 41 Figure 2.4: The influence of drivers on demand for new flavors 48 Figure 3.5: Launches of traditional bakery products with dark chocolate variants 55 Figure 3.6: Healthy, organic and ethical bakery product launches with dark chocolate 56 Figure 3.7: Examples of indication of cocoa content in chocolate covering on biscuits 57 Figure 3.8: Examples of chocolate cookies launched in December 2007 57 Figure 3.9: Interesting chocolate blends in bakery products 58 Figure 3.10: Examples of recently launched oat cereals 60 Figure 3.11: Examples of bakery product launches with new grain flavors 61 Figure 3.12: Examples of premium type wafer products 63
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Figure 3.13: Dark chocolate versions of core products 68 Figure 3.14: Premium and indulgent dark chocolate examples 70 Figure 3.15: Innovative dark chocolate marketed as healthy 72 Figure 3.16: Mango candies promoted by functional ingredients 74 Figure 3.17: Non-chocolate candies with new fruit flavors 75 Figure 3.18: Mint and fruit blends in chewing gum 76 Figure 3.19: Examples of recent blueberry, raspberry, blackcurrant and pomegranate dairy sector
launches 82 Figure 3.20: An example product with a blend of mango and coconut flavors 83 Figure 3.21: Premium and upscale coffee ice cream products 85 Figure 3.22: Chocolate snack bars 89 Figure 3.23: Nut snack products 90 Figure 3.24: Exotic fruit snacks 91 Figure 3.25: Interesting flavor blends in chips 93 Figure 4.26: The influence of manufacturers on flavor innovation currently and in the next 5 years
100 Figure 4.27: Multinational food manufacturer modes of flavor innovation 102 Figure 4.28: Flavor innovation within flavor and ingredient manufacturers 110 Figure 5.29: Key food flavor trends 135 Figure 5.30: Importance of health trends over the next 5 years 137 Figure 5.31: Garlic flavored and ethnic products that claim to be natural 141 Figure 5.32: Natural products with roasted or spicy flavors 143 Figure 5.33: A novel sweetener claiming to be high in antioxidants 146 Figure 5.34: Ratings for growth in usage of antioxidant flavors over the next 5 years 148 Figure 5.35: New vegetable and/or hot/spicy product claiming to be high in antioxidants 149 Figure 5.36: New goji (berry) flavored products 152 Figure 5.37: New products with spice flavor with claiming to be low or no salt 158 Figure 5.38: Examples of recently launched reduced foods promoting the flavor of core
constituents or added herbs or lemon 159 Figure 5.39: Naturally sweet products with chocolate flavor 163 Figure 5.40: Naturally sweet products with vegetable flavors 164 Figure 5.41: Importance ratings for food indulgence trends over the next 5 years 166 Figure 5.42: Indian flavored new product launches 169 Figure 5.43: New products with Vietnamese and Malaysian flavors 170 Figure 5.44: Varietal potato chips 172 Figure 5.45: Lindt Madagascar Noir Chocolate 173 Figure 5.46: Fusion sauces 175 Figure 5.47: Chili and chocolate pairings 177 Figure 5.48: Chewing gums promoted on sensations 178 Figure 5.49: New products promoted on sensations 179 Figure 5.50: Novel sensory products from Japan 181 Figure 5.51: Products providing interactive experiences 182 Figure 5.52: Ratings for growth in usage of retro flavors in food over the next 5 years 184 Figure 6.53: Key emerging opportunities in food flavors 189
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List of Tables Table 2.1: The number of visitors to regions and continents, (m), 2005-2006 23 Table 2.2: Ethnic food retail market, by cuisine, ($m), Europe and US, 1999-2009 24 Table 2.3: Consumer awareness of ethical issues and the influence on purchasing decisions 28 Table 2.4: Out-of-home food and drinks market value, ($m), Europe and US, 2005-2010 32 Table 2.5: Number of snack and light meal occasions, per person per year, Europe and US, 2005-
2010 35 Table 2.6: Functional food and drink market value, ($m), Europe and US, 2001-2011 44 Table 2.7: Consumers aged 55 and over, by region, (m), 2002-2012 45 Table 3.8: Top 20 flavors in new bakery introductions, % of all products launched, 2004-2007 52 Table 3.9: Top 20 flavors in new confectionery product introductions, % of all products
launched, 2004-2007 65 Table 3.10: Top 20 flavors in new dairy product introductions, % of all products launched, 2004-
2007 78 Table 3.11: Top 20 flavors in new snack product introductions, % of all products launched, 2004-
2007 86 Table 3.12: Top 5 flavors in terms of new product launches in 2007, in terms of all products
launched per sector 94 Table 3.13: Top 5 fastest growing flavors in terms of new product launches as percentage of all
products launched per category, per year, 2004-2007 95 Table 3.14: Top 5 emerging flavors in each sector 95 Table 4.15: Top 10 manufacturers that drive innovation through new food flavors 101 Table 4.16: Example flavor innovation activities of major suppliers 111 Table 5.17: Top 20 flavors in new product introductions claiming to be natural, % of products
launched, 2004-2007 139 Table 5.18: Top 20 flavors in new product introductions claiming to be high in antioxidants, %
of products launched, 2004-2007 145 Table 5.19: Top 20 flavors in new fruit flavored product introductions, % of products launched,
2004-2007 153 Table 5.20: Top 20 flavors in new low or no salt product introductions, % of products
launched, 2004-2007 156 Table 5.21: Top 20 flavors of new product introductions claiming to be naturally sweet, % of
products launched, 2004-2007 161 Table 5.22: Classification by region referred to in new product launches, 2004-2007 166 Table 5.23: Classification by country referred to in new product launches, 2004-2007 167 Table 5.24: Top 20 flavors in new product launches claiming to be homemade or traditional, %
of products launched, 2004-2007 183 Table 5.25: Top 10 flavors in new product introductions targeted towards the elderly, % of
products launched, 2004-2007 186
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Executive Summary
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Executive Summary
Drivers and the bigger picture
The number of visitors to Europe, Asia-Pacific, the Americas and Africa increased
between 2005 and 2006. The regions showing the highest percentage increase were
South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and South East Asia.
The predicted compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2004 and 2009 for
the ethnic foods market is 3.5% in the US and 12.2% in Europe. Other Asian food
(not Indian or Chinese) has a predicted CAGR of 20.1% in Europe.
66.3% of consumers are sometimes or always influenced by provenance and
traceability when purchasing food and drinks. This figure is 69.2% for unfair
international trading practices and rules (particularly at the expense of producers in
developing countries).
In 2006, over 30% of consumers in Spain, Italy, and the UK said they had bought
more ethical or socially responsible grocery items in the last year.
The predicted CAGR 2005 to 2010 in the out of home food and drinks market in
Europe is 2.1% for meals and 1.3% for snacks.
At least 63% of European and US shoppers said they had taken active steps to eat
more healthily in the past 12 months. 75% of food industry executives surveyed for
this report rated health as a big influence on demand for new flavors.
Functional food and drink market value between 2006 and 2011 is expected to
grow by a CAGR of 5.0% in the US and 4.9% in Europe.
The number of consumers aged 55 and over is predicted to grow at annual rates of
2.7% in the US, 1.5% in Europe, and 3.6% in Asia-Pacific between 2007 and 2012.
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Top flavors by food sector
The top five most common flavors in the bakery and cereal products sector in 2007
in terms of new product launches were chocolate (9.4%), wheat (2.6%), vanilla
(2.6%), strawberry (2.5%) and oat (2.2%). Wafer was the fastest growing flavor in
the sector between 2004 and 2007.
When food industry executives were asked for two emerging flavors in the bakery
and cereals sector, the top five flavors were; vanilla, cranberry, cinnamon, nuts, and
almond.
The top five flavors in the confectionery sector in 2007 in terms new product
launches were chocolate (8.4%), milk chocolate (6.8%), dark chocolate (4.4%),
strawberry (4.2%) and mint (2.9%). Dark chocolate was the fastest growing flavor.
The emerging flavors in the confectionery sector most mentioned by food industry
executives were; dark chocolate, green tea, pomegranate, cranberry and caramel.
The top five flavors in the dairy sector in 2007 in terms new product launches were
strawberry (7.3%), chocolate (5.3%), vanilla (5.1%), yogurt (4.4%) and milk
(3.2%). Strawberry was the fastest growing flavor.
The emerging flavors in the dairy sector most mentioned by food industry
executives were; vanilla, mango, fruit, coffee, and pomegranate.
The top five flavors in the snacks sector in 2007 in terms of new product launches
were chocolate (2.9%), potato (2.8%), cheese (2.4%), almond (2.3%) and peanut
(2.2%). Cashew was the fastest growing flavor.
The emerging flavors in the snacks sector most mentioned by food industry
executives were; spice, barbeque, cranberry, Indian, and nuts.
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The role of food and flavor manufacturers
According to respondents of the industry survey carried out for this report, in terms
of flavor innovation multinational food manufacturers are the most influential,
followed very closely by flavor manufacturers, then small/local food
manufacturers, and retailers last. The situation is expected to be very similar in five
years time.
According to industry executives, the top three companies driving innovation in
food flavors are: Danone, Nestl and Kraft.
The top players in the flavor manufacturing and supply market now all have a
global presence in terms of sales, production, and flavor creation and applications.
There is a strong focus on the Asian region and the market opportunities there. For
example flavor manufacturer Symrise, opened a Sensory & Consumer Science
Center in Singapore in 2007.
There is a movement to capitalize on opportunities in taste modulation. Senomyx is
a US based company, using proprietary taste receptor-based assays and screening
technologies to discover and develop novel flavors, flavor enhancers and taste
modulators for the food, beverage and ingredients industries. Senomyx has entered
into product discovery and development collaborations with: Ajinomoto, Cadbury
Schweppes, Campbell Soup Company, The Coca-Cola Company, Nestl and
Firmenich.
Givaudan has been investigating the partial replacement of salt with an enhancer
and the masking of off-tastes such as bitterness.
Flavor companies are focusing efforts on sensates and ingredients with physical
effects. An example is International Flavors and Fragrances high-intensity cooling
technology which the company says imparts a clean, refreshing, energizing taste
and feel.
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Key trends in food flavors
81.4% of industry executives rated flavors from natural ingredients as the most
important trend within healthy food and drink over the next five years.
Garlic was the most common flavor in new products launched in 2007 claiming to
be natural. It was in 2.0% of all products launched in the trend.
Dark chocolate was the most common flavor in new products launched in 2007
claiming to be high in antioxidants; in 3.5% of all products launched in the trend.
The five fastest growing flavors in high antioxidant foods, in terms of increase in
product launches between 2004 and 2007, included the superfruits pomegranate,
raspberry, goji, and cranberry; as well as dark chocolate.
71.2% of industry executives rated ethnic flavors as the most important trend
within the indulgent food and drinks over the next five years.
The Mediterranean and Asia are the most popular regions in international and
ethnic foods. Together, flavors from these regions were in approximately 2/3 of
ethnic product launches in 2007.
Italy is by far the most represented country in ethnic food and drinks, with 26.6% of
ethnic products launched in 2007 claiming to contain flavors from the country.
Chocolate and garlic were the most common flavors in new products launched in
2007 claiming to be homemade or traditional, in 2.3% and 2.2% respectively, of all
products launched in the trend.
According to industry executives, retro flavors vanilla and barbeque are expected to
experience the most growth in usage over the next five years.
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Conclusions
The most opportunity for growth in food flavors are within applications that
provide both health and indulgent characteristics and benefits.
Natural flavors are a growing area with significant opportunity. More natural
flavors are being offered by flavor manufacturers and almost any food can be
formulated or reformulated with natural ingredients. Natural is being linked more
closely to functionality, and both trends are crossing over into the mainstream.
There is an opportunity to spice up natural and reduced foods, as well as to bring
out flavors of the core ingredients in reduced foods.
There are growing opportunities to use vegetable flavors in innovative ways in
healthy foods.
Dark chocolate has grown in popularity over the past few years and is becoming a
major flavor in the bakery, confectionery and snacks sectors. Dark chocolate is
increasingly promoted based on its antioxidant properties.
There are many exotic superfruits that have not yet been discovered, offering
lots of opportunities for food manufacturers.
Provenance and ethnic trends are merging; for some products, the labeling of
international origin is detailing specific regions within countries. There are many
opportunities for Mediterranean and Asian foods in a range of applications and to
be targeted at consumers all over the world.
There is a growing expectation for flavors to be bold, distinctive, and stimulating.
Many consumers are more willing to experiment, and there are growing
opportunities for flavors to create experiences. Herbs, spices, sensates, textures,
fusions, and interactivity can deliver these.
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CHAPTER 1
Introduction
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Chapter 1 Introduction
What is this report about and what is its scope?
Flavor is an integral part of food and what it offers consumers. This report summarizes
top flavors for selected food categories as reported by Productscan. It is a
comprehensive review of new and emerging food flavors. The report has a global
focus, although it examines regional issues where relevant.
In addition, this report presents and evaluates consumer drivers affecting food flavor
trends, the role of flavor and food manufacturers in flavor innovation, and key flavor
trends. Sources include company reports and websites, newspaper articles and general
information sources, scientific literature, press releases, trade evaluation and
commentary, various statistical sources, results of Business Insights consumer
surveys, and primary research results of a survey conducted for this report in March
2008.
Research methodology
Productscan is used in this report for a quantitative evaluation of flavors in product
launches globally. Productscan Online is the worlds longest established and largest
database of new product launches in fast moving consumer goods. It contains detailed
reports on all key new products launched, including full product details plus an
innovation rating that determines whether and how a product breaks new ground. The
Productscan Online database is updated using a variety of sources, including store
checks, trade fairs, notification from manufacturers, and press releases.
Important drivers and trends with respect to flood flavors have been identified and
explained using statistical information from a range of relevant Business Insights
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primary surveys; other statistical sources; company reports, information and press
releases; trade and general press; and findings from several scientific studies.
An additional source of information is a primary research survey conducted for this
report. Executives from global consumer goods manufacturers and suppliers, and a
range of roles within these organizations, took part in the survey. The participating
respondents were located across the globe.
Flavors in food defined
The common understanding of flavor in food relates to taste, odor, and/or a
combination of the two. Flavor is imparted from a range of sources, including; major
constituents, added ingredients, flavorings, reactions occurring during cooking and
processing, etc. The definition mainly used in this report refers to flavors as per the
description of a product on its packaging or label.
Report structure
The chapters of this report are structured as follows:
1. Introduction: Report overview and methodology.
2. Drivers and the bigger picture: Review of key issues affecting food flavor
trends with a focus on consumer psychology and behavior.
3. Top flavors by food sector: Review of top current flavors and fastest
growing flavors in terms of product launches.
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4. The role of food and flavor manufacturers: The impact of food and flavor
manufacturers on development of innovative flavors.
5. Key trends in food flavors: Review of the key trends in food flavors.
6. Conclusions: Analysis of the major opportunities in food flavors; and the
flavors, trends and drivers linked to them.
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CHAPTER 2
Drivers and the bigger picture
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Chapter 2 Drivers and the bigger picture
Summary
The number of visitors to Europe, Asia-Pacific, the Americas and Africa increased between 2005 and 2006. The regions showing the highest percentage increase were South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and South East Asia.
The predicted compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2004 and 2009 for the ethnic foods market is 3.5% in the US and 12.2% in Europe. Other Asian food (not Indian or Chinese) has a predicted CAGR of 20.1% in Europe.
66.3% of consumers are sometimes or always influenced by provenance and traceability when purchasing food and drinks. This figure is 69.2% for unfair international trading practices and rules (particularly at the expense of producers in developing countries).
In 2006, over 30% of consumers in Spain, Italy, and the UK said they had bought more ethical or socially responsible grocery items in the last year.
The predicted CAGR 2005 to 2010 in the out of home food and drinks market in Europe is 2.1% for meals and 1.3% for snacks.
At least 63% of European and US shoppers said they had taken active steps to eat more healthily in the past 12 months. 75% of food industry executives surveyed for this report rated health as a big influence on demand for new flavors.
Functional food and drink market value between 2006 and 2011 is expected to grow by a CAGR of 5.0% in the US and 4.9% in Europe.
The number of consumers aged 55 and over is predicted to grow at annual rates of 2.7% in the US, 1.5% in Europe, and 3.6% in Asia-Pacific between 2007 and 2012.
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Introduction
This chapter presents and discusses current (and future) drivers affecting flavors in
food. The focus is on consumer psychology and behavior. There are many complex and
interacting drivers in this area. The drivers are often linked to specific consumer
segments and context dependent behavior within segments.
Figure 2.1 summarizes the drivers which are explored in more detail in this chapter.
Figure 2.1: Consumer psychology and behavior drivers
Travel and immigration
Nostalgia and slow food
Ethics and carbon awareness
Cooking, entertaining and eating out
Snacking and single item meals
Multi-sensory experiences
Health and wellbeing
Effect of older generation
Driving demand for new food
flavors
Travel and immigration
Nostalgia and slow food
Ethics and carbon awareness
Cooking, entertaining and eating out
Snacking and single item meals
Multi-sensory experiences
Health and wellbeing
Effect of older generation
Driving demand for new food
flavors
Source: Author analysis Business Insights Ltd
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Travel and immigration
The impact of travel and immigration has led to a general increase in range and
complexity of foods available (and expected) in most developed regions.
Increasing travel means increased awareness of global flavors
The number of people traveling to all continents has increased in recent years, as
shown in Table 2.1. Increased travel means increased awareness and knowledge about
diverse cultures, food and flavors. Individuals often look to recreate the exotic,
interesting or indulgent experiences they have when on holiday and/or when traveling
for business. Purchasing power has increased for middle class segments of the
population in many developed countries, and the middle class itself is growing in
developing countries such as China and India. With the costs of air travel also having
decreased, travel for pleasure has become a possibility for many more consumers
globally.
Table 2.1 shows the continents with the greatest increase (2005 to 2006) in percentage
of visitors were Asia-Pacific and Africa. The regions showing the highest percentage
increase in visitors were South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and South East Asia. An
increased awareness and familiarity with these regions is likely to result in the
introduction of new types of products linked to these regions, and an increase in use of
Asian and African spices and ingredients in new product launches around the world.
Food manufacturers have the opportunity to take advantage of consumers familiarity
with a whole new range of foods.
In December 2007, The Pittsburg Post-Gazette1 reported one of the 10 developing
trends for 2008 is a spotlight on all the foods of Asia. It sites the influence of the
Beijing Olympics in 2008; and predicts the food of China, Indonesia, Malaysia,
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Singapore, India, and particularly Korea, as being of interest to American shoppers and
consumers.
Table 2.1: The number of visitors to regions and continents, (m), 2005-2006 Millions of visitors 2005 2006 % Change 05-06 Europe 441 458 3.9% Northern Europe 52.9 56.3 6.6% Western Europe 142.6 148.7 4.3% Central/ Eastern Europe 87.1 88 1.0% South Mediterranean 158.4 165 4.2% Asia-Pacific 155.4 167.1 7.6% North East Asia 87.6 94 7.4% South East Asia 49.3 53.8 9.0% Oceania 10.5 10.5 0.3% South Asia 8 8.8 10.1% Americas 133.5 136.3 2.1% North America 89.9 90.3 0.5% Caribbean 18.9 19.5 3.2% Central America 6.5 6.9 6.1% South America 18.3 19.6 7.2% Africa 37.3 40.3 8.1% North Africa 13.9 14.7 5.8% Sub-Saharan Africa 23.4 25.6 9.4% Middle East 39.2 40.8 3.9%
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) 2007 Business Insights Ltd
Ethnic food continues to gain popularity
The inflow of foreign populations into many OECD (Organization for Economic Co-
operation and Development) member countries is increasing. For example, according
to OECD statistical data, the yearly inflow of Chinese to Canada more than doubled
between 1996 and 2005, while the yearly inflow of Algerians and Moroccans to France
more than tripled in the same period. One traditional route to employment for
immigrants is through foodservice (restaurants, etc.), and immigration means there is a
consistent entry of new types of food into certain regions. Flavor knowledge and
preferences from one region spread to new locations.
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Table 2.2 shows continued growth in the value of the ethnic food retail market in both
the US and Europe. The expected growth (CAGR 04-09) in foods from the Asian
continent into Europe is large. Other Asian cuisine is expected to show the highest rate
of growth in Europe, but the growth rates for Chinese, Indian, and Mexican foods are
also high and offer growth opportunities for manufacturers. Kosher foods are expected
to show the highest rates of growth in the US. In both regions, the growth of Other
ethnic foods is also significant. This growth means successful food manufacturers will
either need an increased knowledge of flavors and ingredients from a range of regions
around the world, as well as expertise as to how to apply these in new products that
appeal to consumers; or will need to purchase or co-operate with already established
local companies. It will also be important to keep watch on emerging trends to spot
which new (Other) ethnic foods become popular.
Table 2.2: Ethnic food retail market, by cuisine, ($m), Europe and US, 1999-2009
Cuisine 1999 2004 2009 CAGR 99-04 CAGR 04-09 US Mexican 14,774 17,612 20,700 3.6% 3.3% Chinese 4,043 4,517 4,783 2.2% 1.1% Other Asian 7,200 8,258 9,148 2.8% 2.1% Kosher 4,019 7,458 9,973 13.2% 6.0% Other 2,913 4,032 5,138 6.7% 5.0% Overall 32,949 41,913 49,703 4.9% 3.5% Europe Chinese 999 1,934 3,459 14.1% 12.3% Mexican 583 1,008 1,587 11.6% 9.5% Indian 715 1,400 2,296 14.4% 10.4% Other Asian 142 385 961 22.0% 20.1% Other 87 196 442 17.7% 17.7% Overall 2,526 4,923 8,746 14.3% 12.2%
Source: Business Insights Business Insights Ltd
A typical example of the broad acceptance and growth potential for international food
introduced to a host country through immigration is Panda Express, a Chinese
restaurant chain, which is fast approaching 1,000 restaurants throughout the United
States, Puerto Rico and Japan. The Panda Express background involves the owning
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family bringing recipes from the Yangzhou region in China to America. This
demonstrates that business plans based on consumer preference for authentic ethnic
food are viable, and innovative food manufacturers can learn from this concept. Many
ethnic foods in the US are now considered to be as mainstream as the traditional
hamburger and fries.
The established and increasing popularity of ethnic foods in restaurants means that
consumers are likely to seek out ethnic and international flavors in the foods they buy
in general, and that the associated flavors will eventually become part of their normal
repertoire. Understanding which ethnic foods and flavors are popular with which
demographic segments of consumers, is important for food manufacturers to be able to
provide the type foods that are preferred.
Nostalgia and slow food
Simple, local and traditional food is an antidote for an increasingly complex and
threatening world. Flavor perception, emotion, and memory are intricately linked. This
in part explains the trend towards foods and associated flavors that are linked to earlier
or less complicated times. Although this trend appears to be a contradiction with other
trends driving food flavors discussed in this chapter (i.e. international and ethnic
appeal, novelty and experimentation) all these drivers can be important for different
demographics of consumers in different contexts, and therefore provide opportunity for
food manufacturers.
The role of established brands
There are many retail food brands that have been household names for more than 100
years. Chocolate and cocoa products were first produced under the Cadburys brand in
England in 1831. Kraft started with a wholesale cheese business in Chicago, Illinois in
1903. The company now is relevant for more than a billion people in more than 150
countries, and Kraft brands include an extensive list, including household names such
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as Ritz, Philadelphia, Prince, and Nabisco. Many flavor preferences are established in
childhood, and food manufacturers should be aware of the impact of familiar flavors on
food choice. For example, perception of generic chocolate flavor in the US may be
highly linked to Hersheys Milk Chocolate for many consumers, whereas in the UK it
may be linked to Cadburys Dairy Milk, as these are the products the consumers in
each case ate during childhood.
The value of classic brands is linked partly to the place products hold in the consumers
memory. Some packaged food manufacturers invest heavily in mature products and
brands, marketing the nostalgia around them. Some examples of products promoted
based on nostalgic or childhood associations include;
Findus crispy pancakes in the UK, are described by the company as folded pockets
of flavor and marketed around childhood memories of family meals and quick and
convenient snacks during university days;
Werthers Original classic Cream Candy made from a traditional recipe with real
butter and fresh cream by the German confectioner Storck, is marketed by the
company as a product that many people describe the flavor of, as just like in the
old days.
The above examples show that flavor and its link with memory are often specifically
referred to in marketing communications.
The fact that certain products can be marketed, at least in part, using nostalgia, means
that food manufacturers need to be aware of retro trends and flavors. There may be
opportunities for using these nostalgic flavors in rejuvenated food applications or in
new combinations. Classic brands can be reformulated to be healthier (see further
discussions below) and appeal to a middle aged group that wants the flavors they
remember, with the assurance that what they are eating is good for them.
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Memories on the plate
Nostalgia and tradition also has a role to play in trends in eating out and what
consumers cook and prepare at home and when entertaining. One of the Benchmark
Hospitalitys Five Tasty Trends for 2007 was Heres to the Memories: the trend for
many great chefs to use techniques and recipes (hearth and home memories) from
their childhood for menu items in top American restaurants.
The Retro Food Recipes website has hyperlinks to UK food retailers, and gives a list of
top 30 recipes which include; Beef Bourguignon, Duck a La Orange, Prawn Cocktail,
Coleslaw, Strawberry Cheesecake, French Onion Soup, Chicken Kiev, and Ratatouille.
Elements of these nostalgic trends will probably cascade down from restaurants to
manufactured food products. Traditional cooking techniques, recipes, and flavors are
likely to influence new product development in the packaged food market.
The slow life
Consumers are voicing their opinions and making lifestyle decisions through
movements like Slow Food. Slow Food is a non-profit, eco-gastronomic member-
supported organization that was founded in 1989 to counteract fast food and fast life,
the disappearance of local food traditions and peoples dwindling interest in the food
they eat, where it comes from, how it tastes and how our food choices affect the rest of
the world. Slow Food is an international organization and has 80,000 members. The
Slow Food manifesto encourages the rediscovery of flavors and savors of regional
cooking.
Trends like Slow Food mean that awareness of where food comes from, and its links to
regional traditions and flavors, is likely to become more important for consumers when
making food choices. This implies that, for the segment of consumers who identify
with movements like Slow Food, there is an opportunity to target food products with
regional flavors and ingredients that have a link to the local community and its history.
Provenance and authenticity of flavors are trends that are linked to this driver.
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Ethics and carbon awareness
The ethical and environmental aspects of food are becoming important issues for
consumers, and are beginning to compete with more traditional choice factors such as
price, taste and convenience. Ingredient sourcing, manufacturing and marketing of
consumer goods are now affected by this increased consumer awareness. This may
affect food flavors as well.
Ethical issues are affecting food and drink purchasing
Table 2.3 shows the influence of ethical issues on consumers food and drink
purchases. The most influential issues are; problems associated with waste disposal,
particularly packaging; use of pesticides, fertilizers, or other potentially harmful
agrochemicals; unfair international trading practices and rules (particularly at the
expense of producers in developing countries); and provenance and traceability.
Table 2.3: Consumer awareness of ethical issues and the influence on purchasing decisions
With regards to food and drinks, how aware are you of the following issues and how much do they influence your purchasing behavior? % always or sometimes influenced by this issue Animal husbandry (for meat and products containing ingredients of animal origin) 64.4% Provenance and traceability 66.3% Use of Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs) 64.4% Use of pesticides fertilizers other potentially harmful agrochemicals 71.0% Food miles (the distance that a products ingredients have traveled) 30.9% Patenting of plant or animal genomes 26.0% Overfishing 53.7% Deforestation/soil erosion 47.7% Problems associated with waste disposal particularly packaging 73.9% Pauperization of small farmers 56.1% Unfair international trading practices and rules (particularly at the expense of producers 69.2% in developing countries) The loss of agricultural animal and plant varieties 50.5% The homogenization of foods and food cultures through globalization 50.9%
Source: Business Insights Consumer Survey Business Insights Ltd
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Some consumers in the US and most countries in Europe (except for Germany) say
they are buying more ethical or socially responsible grocery items. In Spain, Italy and
the UK over 30% of consumers surveyed, said they were purchasing more ethical or
socially responsible grocery items (see Figure 2.2).
Figure 2.2: Purchasing of ethical or socially responsible grocery items
Answers to the question: Over the last year I have bought ethical or socially-responsible grocery items
0%
10%
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FranceGermanyItalyNetherlandsSpainSwedenUKEuropeUS
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FranceGermanyItalyNetherlandsSpainSwedenUKEuropeUS
FranceGermanyItalyNetherlandsSpainSwedenUKEuropeUS
Source: Business Insights Consumer Survey, US and Europe, 2006 Business Insights Ltd
These findings highlight the fact that provenance, traceability and Fairtrade are high on
consumers purchasing agenda. Scrutiny of the origin and value chain for flavors and
ingredients used to formulate foods is likely to increase. Because many flavors are
currently sourced or manufactured in developing countries, it is important for food
manufacturers to be aware of the ethical issues at every point.
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Environmental concerns are becoming an issue in food choice
Even though consumers are traveling more and looking for exotic experiences, they are
also becoming increasingly aware of their effect on and responsibility towards the
environment. Table 2.3 shows that 31% of consumers surveyed in the US and Europe
were always or sometimes influenced by food miles when purchasing food and drink.
In response to this, retailers of all types are becoming concerned with carbon footprint.
The food retailer Tesco claims that it has begun looking for an accepted and commonly
understood measure of the carbon footprint for its products. The company says it
intends to use this to label its products so that customers can compare carbon footprints
as easily as prices or nutritional profiles. Tesco also states that as an interim measure,
the company has put an airplane symbol on all air-freighted products, and it will
restrict air freight to no more than 1% of its imports with a bias in favor of sourcing
from developing countries.
The implication of the awareness and monitoring of food miles is that the use of flavors
and ingredients from one region in foods sold in another region is likely to be made
clear to consumers and subsequently scrutinized by them. Manufacturers will need to
understand their supply chain and manage this appropriately to obtain interesting and
high quality flavors to use in food products, without excessively damaging the
environment.
Ethical and green flavors for the future
So far the trend for ethical food has not greatly affected food flavor itself, but could in
the future. Food miles, Fairtrade, and child labor could affect the acceptance of flavors
derived and manufactured from natural ingredients in developing countries. There may
be more scrutiny around the use and source of exotic flavors in the industrialized
economies.
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There are already examples of food manufacturers working towards sustainability in
the food industry with respect to new ingredients. An example is the Sustainable Aa
Project. Sambazon, a supplier of aa products, contributes resources to this public-
private partnership. The project aims to prove that sustainable agro-forestry in the
Amazon estuary can improve living conditions, enhance educational opportunities, and
promote forest conservation.
The manufacturers of VeeV, which according to the company, is the worlds first aa
spirit, claims to be the first US alcohol company, and one of the first consumer
product companies to fully offset the carbon footprint of their business activities. This
is achieved though a partnership with Climate Clean LLC.
Projects and initiatives that demonstrate sustainability, ethical manufacture and
purchasing, and carbon neutrality, may become core requirements for food
manufacturers and ingredients companies who hope to market exotic or new
ingredients and flavors.
Cooking, entertaining and eating out
An increased interest in cooking and eating as entertainment means a greater interest in
flavors. Consumers are exposed to a wide range of flavors and many are developing
sophisticated tastes. This applies to what consumers buy, cook and order in restaurants.
Some consumers are becoming flavor experts in their own right. Often the interest in
flavor is linked with personal identity and social acceptance.
The business of cooking and entertaining
Cooking has becoming big business. Cooking programs and celebrity chefs are popular
on television in most countries. Best seller lists in many countries include cookbooks.
Amazon US lists 5,882 books in the cooking, food and wine category. When visited on
March 14, 2008, the top two bestselling books on www.amazon.co.uk were both from
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celebrity chefs; Delia Smiths How to Cheat at Cooking and Jamie Olivers Jamie at
Home: Cook Your Way to the Good Life.
The BBC first reported in 20012 that the noun Delia has been included into the
Collins English Dictionary. Since then the Delia effect is often referred to, and
occurs when millions seek out an ingredient or piece of equipment the chef and TV
presenter, Delia Smith, has recommended. These items include cranberries, prunes, and
omelet pans.
In a global and media conscious environment, flavor trends coming from cooking
programs and celebrity chefs can quickly spread. Food manufacturers need to be aware
of these trends and be able to provide ingredients, flavors, and products as they become
popular and are requested by consumers influenced by these trends.
Eating out continues to increase
Table 2.4 shows a predicted increase in eating out in Europe and the US, with the trend
stronger in Europe. For many consumers, the restaurant, take out meal, or snack,
provides an introductory experience to a range of new flavors and ideas for food to
prepare and eat in the home.
Table 2.4: Out-of-home food and drinks market value, ($m), Europe and US, 2005-2010
Europe US 2005 2010 CAGR 2005 2010 CAGR Meals Breakfast 39,420 43,583 2.0% 35,991 36,868 0.5% Lunch 230,463 250,433 1.7% 147,926 150,538 0.4% Dinner 204,099 231,187 2.5% 118,770 122,450 0.6% Overall 473,982 525,203 2.1% 302,686 309,856 0.5% Snacks Morning 43,839 48,350 2.0% 36,033 37,624 0.9% Afternoon 63,444 70,103 2.0% 39,832 41,335 0.7% Evening 224,792 236,146 1.0% 136,532 138,073 0.2% Overall 332,075 354,598 1.3% 212,397 217,032 0.4%
Source: Business Insights Business Insights Ltd
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Eating out more often changes expectations in terms of the range, variety, and quality
of food and flavors a consumer may expect in their daily routine. A restaurant
experience is often considered to be indulgent. Consumers with broad experience of
eating out are looking for more indulgent experiences with food in other contexts,
including what they buy to prepare at home for guests and for themselves.
Another key element of eating out is often personal choice. This increased emphasis on
personal choice in food is also likely to make consumers more aware of flavors they
prefer, and incorporate food choice and flavor as part of identity. For the food
manufacturer, this means that values associated with specific flavors can be used as a
way to target specific groups in the population.
Consumers as connoisseurs and experts
More consumers globally are learning about food and flavors and becoming experts
in specific food and drink products. The internet provides access to an array of gourmet
food clubs. Examples include chocolate, cheese, and Italian food, among many others.
These clubs allow consumers to either sample foods on a regular basis or join a group
of like minded individuals for tasting sessions.
This is likely to increase the overall level of sophistication, and increase expectations
of quality, towards food. Knowledge of flavors and subtleties of taste will increase for
some consumers, and this means that food manufacturers will need to provide higher
quality and more sophisticated flavors and ingredients to some segments of the
population.
In July 2007, the WSET (Wine & Spirit Education Trust) announced that the number of
students sitting a WSET exam for the academic year 06-07 had doubled that at the
beginning of the decade. WSET claims to be the largest global provider of education in
wines and spirits. In the academic year 2006/7 over 20,000 candidates in 39 countries
and nine languages sat a WSET examination. Training of this type is important, as it
often involves learning to systematically assess a product and rate its overall quality
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with respect to agreed criteria. If more consumers are exposed to these practices they
will become much more aware of good and bad quality flavors.
Food retailers are already picking up on this trend and offering what might be
perceived to be products targeted directly at the consumer connoisseurs. For example,
in the UK, the retailer Sainsburys offers the Taste the Difference range which is
about quality ingredients, authentic products and, most of all, fabulous taste. Taste
the Difference products include foods with subtle blends of flavors which are often
identified by provenance. Some examples are; San Marzano tomato and fresh basil
soup, chestnut smoked salmon, outdoor reared British back bacon, and black cherry
panettone. These products are often seen as indulgent as well as different.
In the UK, the Food Standards Agency produces a guide to Setting up and running
community and school food clubs. In addition to a range of other outcomes focusing
on health and food safety, the clubs are designed to enable their members to be creative
when cooking food, and to read and understand food labels. Initiatives like this means
that the next generation will be aware of food flavors and ingredients, and ask for
creative and high quality food.
The trend for the consumer as an expert or connoisseur is not confined only to Western
economies. For example, an article in the UK newspaper, The Independent, in February
20083, reported an expected increase of 35% this year in wine consumption in India, a
trend that has been seen for the last few years. The article explained that wine clubs are
being set up and wine tasting organized by leading global producers and Indias own
wine industry, and that the interest in wine is partly fuelled by the increasing number of
people traveling abroad for business and holidays. Globally, increased interest in
flavors and tasting is likely to mean that consumers will be demanding more variety
and higher quality products in retail outlets in developing countries. Interest in flavor in
these contexts is also becoming a way of affirming social status and worldly
knowledge.
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Snacking and single item meals
More snacking is predicted in the US and Europe
Table 2.5 shows that consumers in the US and Europe are likely to be snacking and
eating more light meals by 2010. The trend is stronger in Europe than the US, and
stronger for light meals than snacks. The per person rate of eating light meals in Europe
was only about half that in the US in 2005, showing an important potential for growth.
The increase in informal, smaller meals and snacks provides an opportunity for new
products based on new eating contexts.
Table 2.5: Number of snack and light meal occasions, per person per year, Europe and US, 2005-2010
Snacks Light meals 2005 2010 CAGR 2005 2010 CAGR Europe 694.2 719.3 0.7% 127.5 146.3 2.8% US 775.3 795 0.5% 221.8 243.4 1.9% Overall 734.7 757.1 0.6% 174.6 194.9 2.2%
Source: Business Insights Business Insights Ltd
Complex mixtures and ethnic influences
Traditionally snacks have intense flavors as well as interesting textures. Examples of
traditional snacks include items with a range of shapes, flavors and textures; olives,
beef jerky, cookies and cakes, potato chips, etc. In French a word for snack is amuse-
gueule literally entertaining the mouth. An increased focus on snacking is likely to
increase development of intense and complex flavors; giving more scope in product
development creativity than for traditional items that are eaten as part of a meal. In a
classic meal, all items balance and complement each other, so none of them should be
too intense or characteristic. Snacks are often seen as a form of entertainment, not just
sustenance.
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The current packaged food market has many examples of snacks with complex flavors.
These flavors may be based on novel mixtures of added flavors, or on interesting
combinations of foods. Often these snacks have ethnic influences or demonstrate
aspects of fusion of one ethnic food type with another. An example of a producer of
snack products following this trend is Kettle Foods, which markets a range of
adventurous flavored products. These include (among others) Buffalo Bleu, Spicy
Thai and Tuscan Three Cheese potato chips in the US.
The near future will see an opportunity for manufacturers to create new snack products
based on traditional themes, but using a range of novel and unique flavors. The variety
and availability of flavors and ingredients through global suppliers can help to develop
products that are creative and capture consumers imagination and desire for
experimentation, while retaining consistency and quality.
The fact that consumers like to snack and are looking for exotic and intense flavors
serves as an opportunity globally by food retailers, food service organizations, as well
as tourism. For example, in Taiwan, the China Post reported (November 3, 2007)4 that
foreigners had voted Taiwans top five snacks as oyster omelettes, bubble tea, salty
fried chicken and steamed buns (xiaolongbao), rice buns with meat, and stewed pork
rice (lurofan). The voting was conducted at an event organized by the Corporate
Synergy Development Center under the supervision of the Department of Commerce,
Ministry of Economic Affairs, with the aim of promoting Taiwanese gourmet food on
the international stage.
The goal of events described above is to expose tourists and business people, as well as
the worldwide media, to ethnic snacks with new flavors and textures. This will help to
spark demand for similar experiences in other countries, creating an opportunity for the
export of a countrys foods and ingredients. Novel and different is increasingly a
positive feature for snacks, giving food manufacturers a wide range of opportunities
and sources from which to draw new product development ideas, but also presenting
the challenge of finding the next new big thing.
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Natural provides opportunities
The majority (61%) of European and US consumers sought to improve the healthiness
of their snacking in 2007. Attitudes like this are increasing the demand for natural
snack examples. Natural for food products usually means no artificial flavors, colors, or
preservatives, and minimal processing; but the interpretation of natural for consumers
of snacks may mean manufactured with what they consider natural flavors or made
from what might be considered more natural or organic core ingredients. Natural
flavors and ingredients include traditional herbs and spices, honey or molasses, and
vegetable and fruit flavors or additions. Examples of snacks with different core
ingredients include crisps made from root vegetables other than potatoes (parsnips,
carrots, etc.). Other examples are tofu, rice and fruit based snacks. Fruit snacks include
items like apple chips, fruit leathers, etc. An example of a product line launched in the
US in the last few years, which illustrates this trend, is Danielle Crispy Fruit Chips
(Sweet Jackfruit, Tangy Pineapple and Honey Banana) and Crispy Vegetable Chips
(Crunchy Pumpkin, Wild Taro and Spicy Carrot) from New England Herbal Foods,
LLC.
Many snack bars also claim to be natural. These snack bars are often promoted as a
healthy alternative to breakfast. They normally feature fruit, nut, seed, grain and/or
yogurt type flavors, and sweetened with honey, brown sugars, etc.
The popularity of natural snacks presents opportunities, but also challenges for food
and flavor manufacturers to creatively use natural ingredients and flavors to produce
good tasting and healthy products.
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Multi-sensory experiences
A virtual world
Many consumers are used to living in a heightened reality and expect their senses to be
stimulated in a range of ways and combinations; personalized audio stimulation
through mp3 players, visual stimulation through video games and web enabled mobile
phones, etc. Many public places, such as airports and train stations, have large video
screens showing adverts, music videos, news, etc. Most stores and restaurants play
music hoping to enhance their customers enjoyment of the shopping or dining
experience. Products and services activating the senses are seen as a way of increasing
the variety in our everyday lives and heightening the emotional element of our
experiences, and as a consequence, are being sold around the world in very large
numbers. Macworld estimates that Apple will sell 51.1 million iPods in 20085.
Marketers are increasingly conscious of the benefits of using all the senses to promote
products. Branding through the senses has been used in the service industry and for
larger consumer goods (cars), but is now also considered a way to differentiate low
involvement fast moving consumer goods. Packaging and product designers can
incorporate aromatic, tactile and audio components that work as emotional cues. This
takes advantage of the link between sensory experience and consumers emotions. This
means that flavors as well, and their links with other sensory stimuli, will become
increasingly important from a marketing perspective.
Sensory touchpoints and signatures
In his book Brand Sense, Martin Lindstrom is persuasive in suggesting building
powerful brands through touch, taste, smell, sight and sound. Developing a set of
unique sensory touchpoints that are consistent with the brand is now considered
important when designing consumer goods. The concept of signature smells or sounds
(sonic branding) is moving into the mainstream. Some interesting new and old
examples are:
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The Windows start up and closing jingle which is a part of so many working
peoples everyday life;
The Swedish clothing designer Odeur endorses all garments with the scent of
Odeur an androgynous, clean, white and light scent;
The sound of Kelloggs Rice Krispies is a registered trademark: Snap! Crackle!
Pop!.
This trend is important for food and flavor manufacturers for two reasons:
The next step for non-food consumer goods may be to develop signature flavors for
certain brands and complementary food items featuring that flavor;
There may be opportunities in food for developing products that stimulate all of the
senses in a more direct way than previously, and whose flavor, texture, appearance,
odor, sound are designed to tell a story. Food flavor development may become
intricately linked with branding.
Innovation in the kitchen
In autumn 2007, Heston Blumenthal, the chef, and owner of the Fat Duck restaurant in
the UK, was featured in a BBC television series called Food In Search of Perfection
in which he shared his scientific approach to classic dishes. The BBC describes
Heston Blumenthal as a culinary alchemist and its website posts some of his inventive
recipes such as Tomato Fondue. The website also describes Fat Duck restaurant dishes
such as Sound of the Sea a seafood dish designed to be eaten while listening to a
personal stereo playing the sounds of waves crashing on the beach. The dish was
designed in the context of research by a collaborator; Professor Charles Spence; the
head of the Crossmodal Research Laboratory based at the Department of Experimental
Psychology, Oxford University; which has shown that recreating the correct
environmental cues while eating, can make a dish more enjoyable. Dr. Spence was the
keynote speaker with a talk entitled, Sensory and Consumer Perceptions of Acoustic
and Textural Combinations, at the Society of Chemical Industry, Acoustic and
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Textural Perception meeting, in London in November 2007. On the Fat Duck website,
Heston Blumenthal and his colleagues propose that preparing and serving food could
be considered a performing art, because of the fact that all the senses as well as the
mind are engaged.
Creating a multi-sensory experience is part of the chefs role in respected restaurants
and cooking circles. The diner is invited to experience everyday things in a new
context, and usually stimulate a novel combination of senses.
Molecular gastronomy is a term given to the concept of applying science to cooking.
By using molecular gastronomy type techniques, chefs may use their expertise and
creativity to create refined, varied, and intense foods. This might involve trying out
what might seem bizarre combinations of tastes, but the combination could be based on
a theory about food or ingredients complementary chemistry.
Will elements of the multi-sensory experience trend find some resonance in flavors
used in manufactured food? For the purposes of entertainment and aesthetic
stimulation, some flavors are likely to be more complex, multifaceted, or designed to
be used with other sensory touchpoints. It is important for food manufacturers to be
aware of these trends, as they could impact on food product design and the range and
type of flavors needed. Flavors may be designed in the future to specifically
accompany certain textures and/or colors, and/or sounds. Food as an experience or art
will require a higher level of flavor expertise than for food as a commodity.
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Health and wellbeing
Eating healthier
Consumers globally are becoming more aware of the impact of what they eat on their
health and overall wellbeing. In Europe and the US consumers of all ages report that
they are taking steps to eat more healthily. The effect is similar for all age groups, but
most marked for the oldest group surveyed (65+); 70% of this group reported an
increased level of taking active steps to eat healthily in the year before the survey, and
none reported a decreased level (see Figure 2.3). For food manufacturers this shows the
strength of the trend towards healthy eating and the role and volume that healthy
products are likely to have in the future.
Figure 2.3: The propensity of European and US shoppers who have taken active steps to eat healthier in the last 12 months, 2006
Answer to the question: To what extent have you taken active steps to eat more healthily in the previous twelve months?
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
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30%
35%
40%
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Much less Slightly less The same Slightly more Much more
% o
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50-64
65+
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Much less Slightly less The same Slightly more Much more
% o
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18-24
25-34
35-49
50-64
65+
18-24
25-34
35-49
50-64
65+
Source: Business Insights Consumer Survey, 2006 Business Insights Ltd
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The opportunities for promotion of healthy eating and foods, and ingredients to support
these trends are becoming important in developing economies as well. There is a
growing awareness of the importance of healthy eating in India. On its healthy-
india.org website, The Public Health Foundation of India cites that Indians consume
less fresh fruits and vegetables, consume more tobacco, consume more unhealthy diets,
and are more sedentary than their Western counterparts. The website also states that
India has the largest number of people with diabetes in the world, and the Foundation
estimates that in 2003 approximately 30m people were suffering from chronic heart
disease in India.
Indian Food Industy.Net identifies the health food and health food supplements as
rapidly rising segments of the food processing industry in India. In addition, the site
claims that India is the worlds second largest producer of food next to China.
Healthy foods as a concept incorporates a range of new product development
potential; including reduced foods and functional foods. Flavors in these foods need
to be developed and designed specifically to support the formulation.
Flavors in reduced foods
In response to consumer demand many food manufacturers are producing reduced or
low sodium, fat, sugar or calorie versions of traditional favorites:
In February 2008, the Campbell Soup Company announced a major step in its
sodium reduction efforts by adding 36 reformulated ready-to-serve varieties under
the name Campbells Select Harvest soups to its portfolio of lower sodium
products and reformulating its 12 condensed kids favorite soups to meet the US
government criteria for healthy foods;
In the US, General Mills offers Cinnamon Toast Crunch Reduced Sugar breakfast
cereal, while Kelloggs offers Frosted Flakes Reduced Sugar and Froot Loops
Reduced Sugar breakfast cereals.
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The above examples are important to note because reduced calorie, fat, sugar and/or
sodium products often require stronger, bolder flavors; or a different balance of flavors
than the full versions.
The Institute of Food Researchs reduced-fat foods fact sheet highlights this issue with
respect to fat, saying that when the fat content of a food is reduced, its often necessary
to change the overall recipe of a food to achieve acceptable flavor qualities. The sheet
highlights that this is because fat plays a unique role in the development and release of
many flavors.
Food manufacturers will increasingly need to understand how changes in recipe
formulation affect flavor and be aware of specific flavors and ingredients which
synergize with reduced recipes. Many flavors used will be bolder and more
distinctive to make up for the flavor enhancing properties of sugars, salts and fats.
Flavor and functional food and ingredients
Functional foods are those products that provide benefits beyond basic nutrition by way
of added components and which may help prevent disease and promote health. Table
2.6 shows the increase in the value of the functional food and drinks market in the US
and Europe. The CAGR was 4.7% or higher in all areas between 2001 and 2006. This
growth is predicted to continue although at a slightly lower rate. Sweden and Italy
show the highest predicted growth rate. Food manufacturers are using a new range of
ingredients which provide or enhance functional properties in familiar products.
Examples include:
Warburtons in the UK adds inulin extracted from a vegetable source to its Healthy
Inside breads. The brand was launched in July 2005. The company describes the
product as the first loaf of its kind that is baked with a prebiotic ingredient that
works with the bodys defenses to help to produce good bacteria;
Barry Callebaut, a Zurich based manufacturer of cocoa and chocolate, has
developed ACTICOA cocoa and chocolate products, as a result of a special
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process that preserves large amounts of the polyphenols naturally present in cocoa
beans. The company claims that the end result is a functional product that combines
excellent taste with a very high content of natural antioxidants.
Table 2.6: Functional food and drink market value, ($m), Europe and US, 2001-2011
2001 2006 2011 CAGR 01-06 CAGR 06-11 France 599 764 941 5.0% 4.3% Germany 1,375 1,890 2,398 6.6% 4.9% Italy 677 1,042 1,428 9.0% 6.5% Netherlands 216 272 331 4.7% 4.0% Spain 401 598 765 8.3% 5.1% Sweden 140 215 296 9.0% 6.6% UK 1,565 1,998 2,416 5.0% 3.9% Rest of Europe 893 1,235 1,589 6.7% 5.2% Europe overall 5,865 8,013 10,163 6.4% 4.9% US 15,570 21,298 27,179 6.5% 5.0% Total 21,435 29,311 37,342 6.5% 5.0%
Source: Business Insights Business Insights Ltd
Functional foods often contain ingredients (fruit or vegetable inclusions or extracts,
carbohydrates, herbs, phytonutrients, fiber sources, antioxidant sources, vitamins,
minerals, etc.) which can impart flavors in themselves. If the flavors imparted by
functional ingredients are unpleasant or inappropriate for the context (this may be the
case with some vitamins, minerals, etc.) flavors or other ingredients may need to be
added to counteract the functional ingredients by covering or complementing
unpleasant notes. The food manufacturing industry has recognized this issue and is
attempting to learn more about formulating with functional ingredients For example,
Working with Functional Ingredients is one of the topics in the FONA International
(formerly Flavors of North America), Top 10 Challenges of Flavor course, currently
offered in the US.
In many cases functional ingredients add pleasant flavors, and therefore introduce
consumers to a new area of flavor. For example, the increased use of berries and their
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extracts as a source of antioxidants in the past few years has introduced the flavor of
cranberry and blueberry to a whole range of global consumers who may not have had
much experience with these flavors before. New berries gaining popularity now include
goji and aa, among others. Knowledge of new functional ingredients and the flavors
they impart is important for successful design and launch of new products in a health
conscious environment.
The effect of the older generation
Demographic shifts
Changes in demographics mean the elderly are likely to have an impact on the range
and type of flavors in food, if only by their impact on society as a whole.
Table 2.7: Consumers aged 55 and over, by region, (m), 2002-2012 Millions 2002 2007 2012 CAGR 02-07 CAGR 07-12 US 62.1 70.5 80.6 2.6% 2.7% France 15.8 17.8 19.5 2.3% 1.9% Germany 24.5 25.8 27.5 1.1% 1.2% Italy 17.5 18.6 19.5 1.2% 0.9% Netherlands 4 4.5 4.9 2.3% 2.0% Spain 11.1 11.7 12.4 1.1% 1.1% Sweden 2.7 2.8 3 1.2% 1.0% UK 15.9 16.9 17.9 1.3% 1.1% Other Europe 104.6 111.9 121.7 1.4% 1.7% Total Europe 196.1 210 226.3 1.4% 1.5% Australia 4.3 5 5.7 2.9% 2.5% China 183 216.6 264 3.4% 4.0% Hong Kong 1.4 1.7 2 4.1% 4.2% India 108 126.8 151 3.3% 3.6% Japan 39.8 45.5 47.8 2.7% 1.0% New Zealand 0.8 0.9 1 2.5% 2.2% South Korea 7.7 9.1 11.2 3.5% 4.2% Other Asia 67.5 78 94.3 3.0% 3.9% Total Asia-Pacific 412.4 483.6 577 3.2% 3.6%
Source: US Census Bureau Business Insights Ltd
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Table 2.7 shows the number of consumers over 55 is increasing in many regions in the
world. Of the regions evaluated, the growth rates over the last five years as well as
those predicted for the next five years, are highest in Asia-Pacific, with the US the next
highest and Europe the lowest. The increased number of elderly people could enhance
the effects of other flavor trends discussed earlier, such as retro-food and nostalgia.
Foods designed specifically for the elderly
Scientific studies have examined the changes in flavor perceptions with ageing. Most
agree that flavor perception does change with ageing, but there is some debate about
the affect this has on liking and flavor preferences. Earlier studies found flavor
preference changes over the lifespan. For example, a study on nutrition and
chemosensory perception in the elderly published in 19936, found that older subjects,
rated high concentrations of sugar and salt as pleasanter than young subjects did. The
author proposed that multiple influences contribute to this phenomenon.
In the European Commission funded project Healthsense (completed in 2003), the
research program confirmed that the performance of the senses decreases with age, and
as part of the project, optimized foods for elderly people were developed.
In the European Journal of Clinical Nutrition, a study in 20007 stated that losses in
taste and smell that occur with advancing age can lead to poor appetite, inappropriate
food choices, as well as decreased energy consumption. The researchers remarked that
evidence was emerging that suggested a compensation for taste and smell losses with
flavor-enhanced food can improve palatability and/or intake, increase salivary flow and
immunity, reduce chemosensory complaints in both healthy and sick elderly, and lessen
the need for table salt.
A more recent study8 (published in 2007) investigating the differences between elderly
subjects and young subjects in food perception and food liking found that losses in
sensitivity to taste and to olfactory and trigimenal stimuli, as well as reduced chewing
efficiency, were observed on average for the elderly compared with the young.
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Furthermore, subgroups of the elderly were observed in which the compensatory
strategies of flavor enrichment, textural change, and irritant addition led to an increase
in food liking. However, these subgroups did not differ in their sensory acuity.
Taste is affected by age itself and is also affected by the range of medications and
treatments elderly people are likely to be taking. Some medications cause unpleasant
background tastes in the mouth.
Food manufacturers are now starting to design foods specifically for the elderly. The
food itself may be adapted, often in terms of its texture (softer or easier to chew and
swallow), but the packaging can also be adapted (easy to open packaging). Japan is a
leader in this trend. The fact that foods are being created specifically for the elderly
means that there is an opportunity to tailor the flavor of these foods and increase
enjoyment, increase consumption, and repeat purchases. For example, salt could be
used to enhance flavor when acuity is low, but often this age group is also on sodium
reduced diets, so more novel methods of flavor enhancement need to be used. Flavors
in foods designed specifically for the elderly are likely to enhance existing flavors, to
increase impact, and ensure the consumer perceives the pleasant aspects of the overall
product flavor.
In addition to the sensory or ergonomic aspects of food products, the healthiness of
foods is a specific issue for the older generation. Foods marketed for the elderly often
are promoted on specific healthy ingredients. This expands on the opportunities for
food manufacturers to create foods designed particularly for this age group.
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The industry view
In the survey carried out for this report, respondents were asked to rate the influence of
various drivers on demand for new flavors. All the drivers in the survey were rated as
having a big influence by at least 25% of respondents. 75% of food industry executives
rated health as a big influence on demand for new flavors. Immigration was rated the
second most influential. Ethical issues were rated, on average, as having the least
influence. Travel, snacking, the ageing population, and nostalgia, were rated
somewhere in between. The average response over survey respondents for all the
drivers evaluated is shown in Figure 2.4.
Figure 2.4: The influence of drivers on demand for new flavors
1 Little influence
2 3 4 5 Big influence
Travel
Immigration
The ageing population
Eating out
Snacking
Health
Nostalgia
Ethical issues
Response average
1 Little influence
2 3 4 5 Big influence
Travel
Immigration
The ageing population
Eating out
Snacking
Health
Nostalgia
Ethical issues
Response average
Note: Respondents were asked to rate influence on a scale of 1 which was little influence to 5 which was big influence. The response average is an average of the ratings given along the scale.
Source: Business Insights Industry Survey March 2008 Business Insights Ltd
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CHAPTER 3
Top flavors by food sector
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Chapter 3 Top flavors by food sector
Summary
The top five most common flavors in the bakery and cereal products sector in 2007 in terms of new product launches were chocolate (9.4%), wheat (2.6%), vanilla (2.6%), strawberry (2.5%) and oat (2.2%). Wafer was the fastest growing flavor in the sector between 2004 and 2007.
When food industry executives were asked for two emerging flavors in the bakery and cereals sector, the top five flavors were; vanilla, cranberry, cinnamon, nuts, and almond.
The top five flavors in the confectionery sector in 2007 in terms new product launches were chocolate (8.4%), milk chocolate (6.8%), dark chocolate (4.4%), strawberry (4.2%) and mint (2.9%). Dark chocolate was the fastest growing flavor.
The emerging flavors in the confectionery sector most mentioned by food industry executives were; dark chocolate, green tea, pomegranate, cranberry and caramel.
The top five flavors in the dairy sector in 2007 in terms new product launches were strawberry (7.3%), chocolate (5.3%), vanilla (5.1%), yogurt (4.4%) and milk (3.2%). Strawberry was the fastest growing flavor.
The emerging flavors in the dairy sector most mentioned by food industry executives were; vanilla, mango, fruit, coffee, and pomegranate.
The top five flavors in the snacks sector in 2007 in terms of new product launches were chocolate (2.9%), potato (2.8%), cheese (2.4%), almond (2.3%) and peanut (2.2%). Cashew was the fastest growing flavor.
The emerging flavors in the snacks sector most mentioned by food industry executives were; spice, barbeque, cranberry, Indian, and nuts.
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Introduction
This section uses Productscan data to outline key flavor trends for four major food
sectors; bakery, confectionery, dairy and snacks. Flavor here is defined as the attributes
listed on the product. In addition, this section reports relevant findings from the food
industry executive survey carried out specifically for this report.
Bakery and cereals
Bakery products evaluated for this section include:
Bread;
Cereals;
Cookies;
Crackers;
Mixes and baking;
Pastries.
Top and fast growth flavors
The top 20 flavors in bakery product launches in 2007 are given in Table 3.8. In
general, sweet (rather than savory) flavors feature more often in new product launches.
On the whole, the top flavors are more traditional or established, rather than novel.
There are no distinctly ethnic or exotic flavors in the list. For example the fruit flavors
feature strawberry, apple, raisin, lemon and orange, rather than exotic fruits or new
fruits such as cranberry, aa, etc. This reflects the everyday nature of many bakery
products, and also the fact that many of these products are eaten for breakfast. In most
Western countries, breakfast foods feature simpler flavors than foods consumed later in
the day.
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Table 3.8: Top 20 flavors in new bakery introductions, % of all products launched, 2004-2007
Flavor 2004 2005 2006 2007 Chocolate 8.8% 8.2% 9.3% 9.4% Wheat 2.7% 4.3% 3.0% 2.6% Vanilla 2.5% 2.4% 2.6% 2.6% Strawberry 2.8% 2.5% 2.7% 2.5% Oat 1.6% 2.0% 1.9% 2.2% Apple 1.9% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% Cream 2.7% 2.4% 2.0% 1.6% Honey 1.4% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% Coconut 1.4% 1.0% 1.4% 1.6% Cinnamon 1.8% 2.1% 1.4% 1.5% Almond 1.7% 1.4% 1.4% 1.5% Raisin 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.4% Lemon 1.7% 1.3% 1.5% 1.3% Orange 1.2% 1.1% 1.4% 1.2% Hazelnut 1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 1.2% Milk 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% Milk Chocolate 1.6% 1.4% 1.4% 1.2% Cheese 1.4% 1.2% 1.4% 1.1% Rice 1.4% 1.4% 1.1% 1.1% Butter 1.5% 1.5% 1.2% 1.1% Cocoa 1.4% 1.1% 1.3% 1.1% Note: Year ends February 18th 2008.
Source: Productscan Business Insights Ltd
An analysis of those flavors decreasing in new product launches in this category over
the period 2004 to 2007 showed the largest mover to be cream which decreased by
1.1% over the period. 1.1% as a proportion of the typical overall percentage for any
flavor, as shown in Table 3.8, shows that changes in flavor in this sector are happening
at a moderate rate. On average it might take up to 4 or 5 years for a flavor to move in or
out of the top 20 list. The list of flavors making up the 10 fastest decreasing is:
Cream;
Chocolate chip;
Milk chocolate;
Corn;
Nut;
Butter;
Banana;
Custard;
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Herb; Fudge.
This list of flavors decreasing the fastest is quite varied, but it contains many with
higher fat contents (cream, butter, custard, fudge, milk chocolate), and so is
demonstrating the demand for healthy type bakery products. The decrease in corn
flavored products might be explained by the rise in corn prices linked to the use of this
crop for bio-fuel, rather than because of an overt change in consumer tastes. Wheat is
perceived as a healthy flavor, but wheat prices have also increased in the last few years,
due partially to weather problems and demand from emerging economies. This could
explain why this flavor showed a sharp increase from 2004 to 2005 and then a sharp
decrease through 2007.
An analysis of the growth rate in flavors in new product launches in this category over
the period between 2004 and 2007, showed no flavors to be growing at a rate of more
than 1.0% per year. This indicates that although flavors in bakery products are
changing, these changes are taking place gradually, and product developers may have a
few years to see trends emerging and take advantage of them. Wafer is the fastest
growing flavor. The list of the fastest growing top 10 is;
Wafer;
Oat;
Chocolate;
Bread;
Cookie;
Cereal;
Cracker;
Spelt;
Rye;
Dark chocolate.
With a few exceptions, these fastest growing flavors are indicative of a trend in the
bakery sector for new products to be healthy and contain whole grains and cereals.
Dark chocolate is also perceived to be healthier than milk chocolate and it features in
the fastest growing list. Wafer and biscuit flavors may be linked to indulgent and
international types of bakery products being introduced.
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Chocolate trends
Chocolate is by far the most popular flavor for new product launches in the bakery
sector, in 9.4% of new product launches in the sector in 2007. This can be compared to
the second most common flavors which were wheat and vanilla (both at 2.6% of new
product launches in the sector in 2007). Part of the popularity of chocolate is that it has
become a truly global flavor, recognized and appreciated by most cultures and in most
regions. Chocolate is also one of the fastest growing flavors in the bakery and cereal
sector, so is likely to continue in its popularity for the next few years.
There are interesting trends in chocolate in the bakery products category. Chocolate
and dark chocolate are growing but chocolate chip, milk chocolate, and white chocolate
are decreasing. Specific choice of the type of chocolate flavor is linked to the growing
consumer discernment in chocolate types. The rise in popularity of dark chocolate is in
some part, linked to health concerns, and the perceived benefits of high cocoa
percentage products. Many traditional products/brands (for example chocolate covered
biscuits) are focusing on, or introducing dark chocolate variants. Although moving
towards the future, there is demand in the bakery market for chocolate products, some
of these will need to be perceived as healthy as well as indulgent. Examples of
traditional products with new dark chocolate variants launched recently are shown in
Figure 3.5:
Twix Caramel Cookie Bars in a Dark Chocolate version were launched by
Masterfoods US in 2005;
McVities Digestive Biscuits with Dark Chocolate Flavored Coating were launched
in Canada in 2006;
Pepperidge Farm launched Soft Baked brand of Chocolate Chunk Cookies in
Turkey in August 2007. The cookies are offered in a Dark Chocolate variety;
Dark Chocolate Loacker Quadratini wafers launched in Italy in July 2007.
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The above examples show how specifically highlighting dark chocolate flavor is a
promotional benefit.
Figure