Opening session
2
Stephan Neugebauer, EGVIA Chairman
Jean-François Aguinaga, DG RTD
EGVI
Presentation of the CO2 evaluation assessment from ERTRAC
3
Prof. Zissis Samaras,ERTRAC Vice Chair
EU Road Vehicle Energy Consumption and CO2 emissions by 2050Expert-Based Scenarios
2
What vision for 2050?What vision for 2050?
A “CO2-neutral road transport with minimal environmental impact including circular economy for vehicles and infrastructure”
3
Research areas to be explored to achieve ourcommon target of CO2 reduction
How can we achieve this vision ?
4
Different use case scenarios
Expert assessment of therange of CO2 saving potentials
The ERTRAC CO2 Evaluation Exercise3 types of measures
All types of vehiclesconsidered
Assumptions
§ Increase of road vehicles activity by 15% compared to today’s level.
§ The following vehicle activity share was projected (used in Type A and B measures –slightly modified by Type C measures)
5
Baseline 2050 road transport activity shares (% of vehicle-kilometres) by vehicle segment
6
Scenario definition
High Electrification (HE)
Maximum market uptake of PHEV and BEV
High Electrification + Hydrogen (HEH)
Addition of the FCEV option on top of the High Electrification scenario
Mix Scenario (MIX)Modest share of BEVNo FCEVs consideredRelatively high shares of PHEVs and conventional vehicles
Outcome: TtW CO2 emissions
7Fleet comp. A B CA, B & C
CO2 emission reduction vs 2015 by scenario and measure types
HE scenario
HEH scenario
Mix scenario
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
HE Opt HE Pess HEH Opt HEH Pess Mix Opt Mix Pess
CO2
Emis
sion
Red
ucti
on v
s. 2
015
[%]
40% of 1990 i.e. 280 CO2 Mt
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
EU28,2015
Ref2016,2050
EUCO30,2050
HE Base HEHBase
Mix Base HE Opt HE Pess HEH Opt HEH Pess Mix Opt Mix Pess
References Fleet Composition Effect, nomeasures
A&B&C
2050
Fle
et E
nerg
y Co
nsum
ptio
n (T
Wh)
GSL DSL LNG Electricity H2 Other
HE scenarioHEH Scenario
Mix scenario
Outcome: TtW energy consumption
8
References Fleet Composition Effect only, no measures Implementation of all measures
On the way to WtW emissions calculations
9
BEV/PHEV grid to wheel
electricity CO2 emissions (MtCO2)
Share of total scenario
tank to wheel CO2
emissions (%)
HE Base 80 30%HEH Base 73 40%Mix Base 41 7%HE Opt 33 29%HE Pess 54 28%HEH Opt 29 37%HEH Pess 48 38%Mix Opt 18 7%Mix Pess 27 6%
Upstream emissions of electricity production for electric vehicles are also calculated, using conventional knowledge.
2050 BEV and PHEV upstream CO2emissions
10
Fleet electrification can achieve important
TtW emissions reductions butinduces high
transport electrical energy
consumption.
Energy consumption
reduction depends
strongly on the successful
application of the technical
measures
Only a combined approach fostering
electrification and all types of
improvement measures can limit both CO2 emission
reduction and energy consumption.
The highest benefits to reduce
both energy consumption and CO2 emissions are expected from the vehicle efficiency improvements.
Main conclusions
Next steps – necessary study enlargement
11
Innovations should be better considered
Connected and automated drivingMaaSCar sharing modelsNew mobility patternsUser behaviour …
Extension of the study beyond TtW
Well to wheel impact or lifecycle implicationsProperties of the chemical fuels
Air pollutants
Regulated (CO, HC, NOx, PM/PN) and Non regulated (e.g. N2O, NH3, CH4 etc)
Upcoming challenges
12
Huge investments in R&I is needed to
improve the functionality of
e-mobility (costs, range …)
Electricity has to become ~zero carbon for a
maximum benefit from the fleet electrification
Fossil transport fuels have to be replaced
by renewable & sustainable PtX,
Biofuels or Hydrogen!
Important efforts will be needed for
recharging infrastructure deployment
Jette Krause, European Commission, Joint Research Center
Christian Thiel, European Commission, Joint Research Center
Dimitrios Tsokolis, Laboratory of Applied
Thermodynamics, Aristotle University
Thessaloniki
Christian Rota, University of Brighton
Andy Ward, Ricardo UK Ltd
Peter Prenninger, AVL List GmbH
Thierry Coosemans, Mobility, Logistics and
Automotive Technology Research Centre, Vrije
Universiteit Brussel (VUB)
Stephan Neugebauer, European Road Transport Research Advisory Council
(ERTRAC)
Wim Verhoeve, Emisia
13
Acknowledgments
Thank you !
EGVI
Keynote Speech:Outlook of the “World Energy Outlook 2018” report
4
Apostolos Petropoulos,International Energy Agency
© OECD/IEA 2018
What technology mix to achieve a zero to net carbon energy carriers in road transport
Energy4Transport Workshop
Apostolos Petropoulos, IEA
21 October 2019
© OECD/IEA 2018
Diverging picture for global oil demand growth
Global oil demand keeps rising to 106 mb/d by 2040; Petrochemicals, trucks and aviation dominate future oil demand growth
Change in oil demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario, 2017-2040
-6
-3
0
3
6 Power Buildings Other Cars Industry Shipping Aviation Trucks
Petro- chemicals
mb/d
Advanced economies Developing economies International bunkers Net change
© OECD/IEA 2018
Oil demand in transport sector
Cars are responsible for 40% of the increase in transport oil demand since 2000; Trucks and aviation drive up the future oil demand growth beyond 2017
Global oil demand by sector in the New Policies and Sustainable Development Scenarios
41%
30%
7%
12%
9% 2%
Cars Trucks Bus, two/three-wheelers Aviation Shipping Other
200039 mb/d
40%
29%
8%
12%
10%1%
201753 mb/d
35%
32%
6%
16%
11% 1%
204062 mb/d
28%
35%
7%
17%
11% 1%
Sustainable Development 204033 mb/d
© OECD/IEA 2018
A closer look at car fleet
Energy efficiency is the key mechanism that curbs oil consumption in cars
10
20
30
40
2017 NPS 2040
Global oil demand from cars in New Policies and Sustainable Development Scenarios
Fleet growth
Fuel efficiency
Natural gas
Biofuels
Electricity
Reductions
Increases mb/d
SDS 2040
© OECD/IEA 2018
What will the car of the future look like?
By 2040 there are no cars sold that have an efficiency worse than 6.5 litres/100 km in NPS. In SDS, three out of four new cars will be electric.
Global car sales
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2017 NPS 2040
SDS 2040
Electric Gas
< 4 4 - 6 6 - 8 > 8
Fuel efficiency (l/100km)
© OECD/IEA 2018
Policy framework (fuel economy standards, conventional car phase-out) and long term climate targets drive the electric cars uptake
EVs are on the way
100
200
300
2017 2025 2040
Mill
ion
cars
NPS
Other countries
India
United States
European Union
China 300
600
900
2025 2040SDS
© OECD/IEA 2018
Trucks in the New Policies Scenario
Efficiency alongside with improvements in logistics and fuel switching save nearly 8 mb/d
Oil demand from trucks and oil displacement in the New Policies Scenario
5
10
15
20
25
2017 2025 2040
mb/
dVehicle efficiency
Fuel switching
Logistics efficiency
Activity
Oil demand
Reductions
Increase
© OECD/IEA 2018
Decarbonising road freight
Energy efficiency remains the determinant factor for curbing oil demand growth
5
10
15
20
25
NPS 2040 SDS 2040
mb
/d Efficiency
Fuel switching
Oil demand
Reductions
© OECD/IEA 2018
What if road vehicles are electric?
Further electrification of transport needs to go hand in hand with cleaner electricity generation. Electric vehicles help better integration of variable renewable.
1 2 3 4 52017NPSFiESNPSFiESThousand TWhBusesTrucks2/3-WLDVsRailElectricity demand20252040 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0LDVs2/3-WBillion vehiclesElectric vehicle fleet in 2040 2 4 6 8 10TrucksBusesMillion vehiclesFiESNPS
Electric vehicle fleet in 2040 CO2 emissions NOX emissions
-1.8
-1.2
-0.6
0.0
0.6
FiES SDS
Gt C
O2
Indirect
Direct
Total
-1.8
-1.2
-0.6
0.0
FiES SDS
Mt N
O X
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0 LD
Vs
2/3-
W
Billi
on v
ehic
les
2
4
6
8
10
Truc
ks
Buse
s
Mill
ion
vehi
cles
Future is Electric Scenario
New Policies Scenario
Sustainable Development Scenario
© OECD/IEA 2018
Outlook for non-road modes: aviation
Today aviation emits nearly 3% of global CO2 emissions; annual fuel economy improvements double in SDS compared to NPS levels.
1 2 3 4 52017NPSFiESNPSFiESThousand TWhBusesTrucks2/3-WLDVsRailElectricity demand20252040 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0LDVs2/3-WBillion vehiclesElectric vehicle fleet in 2040 2 4 6 8 10TrucksBusesMillion vehiclesFiESNPS
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
ktoe
/bRT
KNPS
SDS
Energy Intensity of aviationEnergy Intensity of aviation
© OECD/IEA 2018
Outlook for non-road modes: maritime
Growth in international shipping activity and fuel consumption in New Policies Scenario
Rate of growth in international shipping activity is double the growth in fuel consumption
40
80
120
160
200
240
2018 2040
OECD Non-OECD
Shipping activity
Trill
ion
t-km
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2018 2040
General cargo Container ships Other types of ships Oil tankers Bulk carriers
Fuel demand
Mbo
e/d
3% per year 1.5% per year
© OECD/IEA 2018
Pathways for decarbonising shipping sector
Energy efficiency is key to drive down emissions
Besides efficiency, biofuels and hydrogen contribute to more than 40% for reaching IMO GHG emissions target
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
2000 2018 2050
Gt C
O₂
54% Efficiency
41% Fuel switching
5% Other
NPS CO2SDS CO2
© OECD/IEA 2018
World Energy Outlook 2019 – 13 November 2019
� Full update of scenarios and analysis, covering all fuels and technologies
� Special focus region: Africa, analysing the current trends and the big growth potential.
� Detailed analysis of offshore wind, discussing evolution of technologies & costs.
� Consideration of prospects for oil & gas infrastructure, how its use is affected by & can be made more compatible with a changing energy system. Incorporates insights from workstreams on hydrogen, renewable natural gas & CCUS
© OECD/IEA 2018
iea.org/weo iea.org/digital
EGVI5
MODERATION: Neville Jackson, Ricardo
Patrick Klintbom, RISE
Jean-Marc Sohier, CONCAWE
Kai Tullius,DG Move
David Bothe, Frontier
Economics
Staffan Lundgren, Volvo
Panel Discussion: Renewable fuels
Reproduction permitted with due © Concaweacknowledgement
EGVIAEnergy4Transport Workshop
21 Oct 2019 – Brussels
Jean-Marc Sohier – Science Director
© Concawe 2
To conduct research to provide impartial scientific information,in order to:
• scientific understanding
• Assist the development of technically feasible and costeffective policies and legislation
• Allow informed decision making and cost effectivelegislative compliance by Association members.
Concawe – Environmental Science for European Refining
Concawe Membership
Concawe represents 40 Member Companies ≈ 100% of EU Refining
Open to companies owning refining capacity in the EU
Concawe mission
© Concawe 3
Energy storage – Limitations of batteriesA look into transport modes
Sour
ce:
Conc
awe
own
asse
ssm
ent
base
d on
dif
fere
nt m
odel
da
tash
eets
, JE
C, R
icar
do d
ata
(Mas
s EV
stu
dy f
or C
onca
we)
Practical
Impractical
© Concawe 4
A Clean Planet for all (DG CLIMA)Eight scenarios to achieve GHG emissions reductions between 80% and 100% by 2050 vs 1990) –
Alternative fuels recognized as key players
80% reduction
-100%
© Concawe 5
Light Duty. Mass EV vs Low Carbon Liquid fuels. The two main scenarios feature significant electrification and use of low carbon fuels (biofuels and eFuels)
(*) ≈70 Mtoe/y Low Carbon fuel used in Light duty segmentSource: Ricardo (2018)
© Concawe 6
• All scenarios reduce GHG emissions and meet reduction objectives at lower overall cost than BAU. • Total costs to the end user are similar for the High EV and Low C Fuels scenario when adjusted to maintain Net Fiscal Revenue. • Overall TCO to end-users, for the average vehicle, reduces in both scenarios compared to BAU.
Embedded emissions (production and disposal of vehicle/batteries) increase their importance through the period representing 8% of the total CO2 emissions in 2015 to 25% by 2050.
Overall picture - Total Fleet (LDV) Total Parc Annual Costs to End-users (LDV)
Source: Ricardo (2018)
Light Duty. Mass EV vs Low Carbon Liquid fuels.
© Concawe 7
… and for Heavy Duty Vehicles?
Different pathways to achieve significant GHG savings by 2050
Source: FEV (2019)
• Combustion engines represent at least 47% of the vehicle stock in 2050 • Battery and fuel cell electric trucks as well as liquid fuels from renewables are relevant to meet the ambitions in all scenarios.• Significant investments and demands swift action as well as joint collaboration between fleet operators, vehicle manufacturers,
technology suppliers, energy providers are necessary.
© Concawe 8
Vision 2050: The refinery as an ENERGY HUB…
… within an INDUSTRIAL CLUSTER,
Reducing emissions within the site + the final use of our products
EGVI5
MODERATION: Neville Jackson, Ricardo
Patrick Klintbom, RISE
Jean-Marc Sohier, CONCAWE
Kai Tullius,DG Move
David Bothe, Frontier
Economics
Staffan Lundgren, Volvo
Panel Discussion: Renewable fuels
1frontier economics │ Confidential
The transport sector is an integral part of the energy system …… and its defossilisation necessarily involves renewable fuels!
Src: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/sankey/sankey.html
Total Electricity consumption EU:
2,800 TWhTotal Oil products in
Transport: 3,500 TWh
Primary product.8,800 TWh
Imports17,800 TWh
Recovered andrecycled products18.9 TWh
Import dependency:Gros: 66%Net: 55%
Available from all sources26,800 TWh
Direct carry-over9,700 TWh
Available after transformation22,700 TWh
Final consumption13,500 TWh
Final energy consumption12,300 TWh
Transformation17,100 TWh
Transformation losses4,100 TWh
Exports6,800 TWh
Final non-energy consumption1,200 TWh
Industry3,000 TWh
Other sectors5,500 TWh
Transport3,800 TWh
Rail76 TWhRoad3,600 TWhDomest aviat71 TWhDomest navig59 TWhPipeline trans21 TWhNon-specified13 TWh
Other2,400 TWh
Total Electricity consumption EU:
2,800 TWhTotal Oil products in
Transport: 3,500 TWh
Energy balance flow for EU28 (2017)
EGVI5
MODERATION: Neville Jackson, Ricardo
Patrick Klintbom, RISE
Jean-Marc Sohier, CONCAWE
Kai Tullius,DG Move
David Bothe, Frontier
Economics
Staffan Lundgren, Volvo
Panel Discussion: Renewable fuels
Volvo GroupVolvo GroupStaffan Lundgren, PE, TE&S1 2019-10-15
The technology exist– will it be profitable for the customer?
More expensive than today:• All zero emission path: it will be more expensive
than todaySociety support: • Customer need to afford, infrastructure need to be
developed, support from the society needed if new technology should take of in numbers.
Sustainable perspective: Well to Wheel:• IEA claims: In 2040 we still use ~2/3 fossil energy
and ~1/3 renewable om the global level. 2050 it will be less fossil, but still significant levels.
• We need therefore learn to use both renewable and fossil energy carriers that produces a minimum CO2 footprint. E.g., Methane, electricity and hydrogen
Bio and e-fuels: • Drop-in fuels yes, for immediate CO2 reduction• Dedicated Bio and E-fuels: The level if diversity kills a
large breakthrough. Selection of one or two major CO2 reduction with H2
Coffee Break#Energy4Transport
EGVI7
MODERATION: Matthias Brendel, AVL
Mateja Poredos, Innogy
Pepinj Vloemans, Fastned
Frank Breust,BMW Group
Maher Chebbo, ETIP-SNET
Panel Discussion: Electrification
EGVI1
EGVI2
Closing remarksStephan Neugebauer
8
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Thank you for your attention !
9
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