18 October 2021 2QFY22 Results Preview
Consumer Discretionary
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Recovery trends healthy
Recovery trends across discretionary categories are healthy: Our
discretionary universe is expected to clock 34/49% revenue/EBITDA growth
YoY (on a low base) in Q2FY22 (two-year revenue/EBITDA CAGRs of
14/15.6%). Pent-up demand stemming from the second wave-led lockdown
was a strong underpinning. F&G, jewellery, paints and apparel (ex-RR) are
expected to clock 17%, 32%, 14%, and -9% (two-yr CAGR). Ticket sizes in
retail, though normalising, remain elevated from pre-COVID levels; footfalls
are inching towards normalcy, too.
Ex-paints, universe to stage a complete margin recoup: In paints, given the
significant RM inflation in the past 6M, EBITDAM is likely to meaningfully
contract (~340bp YoY). Ex-paints, most discretionary categories are likely to
see a strong margin recoup (200-500bp YoY), courtesy (1) low inventory
write-offs and higher full price sales (for apparel retailers) and (2) Recovery-
led operating leverage. In apparel (margin improvement penciled: 475bps
YoY), however, we believe margins are yet to hit steady-state margins
(~120bps lower). We pencil in two-yr CAGRs of 14/36/16/-15% for F&G (ex-
RR), jewellery, paints, and apparel (ex-RR).
Store additions have resumed: Store additions for retailers have resumed in
Q2, post the halt in construction activity during the second wave.
Channel checks: Value chain checks suggest that (1) in F&G, international e-
tailers and Reliance Retail have been improving their assortment availability
and pricing mechanisms. Hence, competitive intensity would be a key
monitorable for strong offline incumbents; (2) an encore in rental
concessions/waivers awarded to retailers in FY21 is unlikely in FY22. This,
coupled with RM pressure, could pose arisk to margins in FY22, if footfalls
don’t oblige.
Margin of safety goes from absent to alien: While our revenue/EBITDA
growth expectations over FY19-24 and steady-state return profiles have not
changed materially, the dislocation between value and price within the
discretionary pack continues to widen and, in case of many, the margin of
safety has gone from absent to alien (most trade between 50-174x Dec-23
P/E). Any disappointment in recovery momentum and negative margin
surprise could hurt stock performances. There are no changes in
recommendations. We have BUY ratings on ABFRL and KNPL. Note:
Changes in TP are largely a function of a 1. 6M DCF roll-over (to Dec-22)
and 2. marginal EPS upgrades for select companies.
5 2
(6) (7) (18)
(39) (35) (51) (42) (37)
(1)
14 16 10 13 26
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(1)
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1QFY22 (2-yr CAGR, %) 2QFY22 (2-yr CAGR, %)
Company RECO TP
(Rs)
Prev.
TP
(Rs)
Avenue
Supermarts SELL 2,700 2,260
Titan SELL 1,600 1,500
ABFRL BUY 310 250
Trent SELL 795 690
STOP SELL 210 190
TCNS Clo. SELL 500 430
V-MART REDUCE 3,750 3,250
Asian Paints SELL 2,650 2,460
Berger Paints SELL 710 670
Kansai
Nerolac BUY 700 675
Jay Gandhi
+91-22-6171-7320
Varun Lohchab
+91-22-6171-7334
Page | 2
Strategy report
2QFY22 Results Preview
Retail
COMPANY Q2FY22E
OUTLOOK WHAT’S LIKELY KEY MONITORABLES
Titan STRONG
Building in 63% topline growth for Titan (two-year
CAGR 26%.
Jewellery (ex-bullion) sales grew 78% YoY (two-year
CAGR 32%). Grammage growth to outpace value
growth as gold prices have declined YoY.
Watches/eyewear grew 73/74% YoY(two-year
CAGR: -2/3%)
We build in 9.9% EBIT margin at company level.
Expect 11/9/9% EBIT margins for
jewellery/watches/eyewear respectively. Building in
34% studded ratio.
Commentary on underlying
growth demand trends (ex-pent-
up demand)
Outlook on watches and
eyewear businesses
Jewellery business EBIT margin
Inventory levels and capital base
movement in jewellery
Trent GOOD
We expect revenue to grow 77% YoY on a low base
(two-year CAGR: -1%)
Our forecasts build in 82/60% growth YoY for
Westside and Zudio resp (two-year CAGR: -4/22%)
Expect GMs to improve meaningfully YoY to 46.3%
(vs 40.9%). Note: base quarter GMs are depressed
due to significant inventory provisions. GMs are
likely to be lower than pre-pandemic levels courtesy
(1) RM inflation and (2) higher Zudio sales in mix.
Building in 14.3% EBITDA margin (vs 1.4% in
Q2FY21 and 16.2% in Q2FY20)
Commentary on demand trends
Inventory levels and revenue
ramp-up
Rental savings
Expansion strategy
ABFRL GOOD
We expect revenue to grow by 89% YoY on a low
base to INR 19.2bn (two-year CAGR -9%) in Q2FY22.
Expect Madura to recover 87% of the pre-pandemic
base (two-year CAGR: -7% YoY).
Expect Pantaloons to recover 71% of the pre-
pandemic base (two-year CAGR: -16% YoY).
EBT losses (ex other income) are likely to
meaningfully ebb YoY (from –INR3.8bn in Q2FY21
to –INR0.4bn as favourable leverage begins to kick
in)
Inventory-led write-off will be a key monitorable
Commentary on demand trends
Rental savings
Expansion strategy
Inventory and creditor levels
Page | 3
Strategy report
2QFY22 Results Preview
COMPANY 2QFY22E
OUTLOOK WHAT’S LIKELY KEY MONITORABLES
V-MART GOOD
Given the tier-3/4 focus and its value fashion
positioning, V-MART is likely to clock a relatively
better print vis-a-vis other apparel peers.
We expect revenue to grow at 75% to INR3.07bn
(two-year CAGR: -1%)
VMART added five stores (net) for the quarter (store
count: 368).
Expect GM to remain stable YoY at 30% and
EBITDAM to improve (on a low base) YoY to 6.4%
(still lower vs pre-pandemic levels) as rental bills
begin to trickle back in the P&L
Commentary on demand trends
Rental savings
Expansion strategy
Inventory and creditor levels
Consolidation opportunities
TCNS Clothing AVG
Building in 68% growth in Q2 to INR 2.4bn (two-
year CAGR -13%). Topline still remains online
heavy. Offline performance lags other apparel peers,
given the category TCNS deals in (Ethnic wear)
Gross margin expected to expand 640bp to 58% as
heightened online skew (in base) begins to mean-
revert (still meaningfully lower than typical Q2 GM).
Building in 13.2% EBITDAR Margin for Q2 (vs -
11.3% in Q2FY21, 20.3% in Q2FY20)
EBO additions to pick up in Q2. Expect TCNS to add
20+ stores in Q2.
Commentary on demand trends
Rental savings
Expansion strategy
Inventory and creditor levels
Consolidation opportunities
Shoppers Stop WEAK
Given STOP’s predominant mall-based presence
(malls being the most impacted by the pandemic),
revenue recovery is likely to be the weakest in the
peer set
We expect revenue to grow by 90% YoY to INR
5.5bn, on a low base (two-year CAGR -19%).
Building in 750bps GM expansion YoY (on a low
base, still lower than pre-pandemic levels).
However, PBT losses (INR375mn) would ebb YoY as
fixed cost absorption improves.
Commentary on demand trends
Rental savings
Expansion strategy
Inventory and creditor levels
Page | 4
Strategy report
2QFY22 Results Preview
Paints
COMPANY 2QFY22E
OUTLOOK WHAT’S LIKELY KEY MONITORABLES
Asian Paints GOOD
We expect a strong 23% growth YoY for the
decorative business in Q2FY22 on a low base. (2-yr
CAGR: 14%). 21/2% volume/realisation growth built
(consol: 22% growth built in)
Given rising RM pressure, we build in ~475bps
contraction YoY in gross margin (standalone).
EBITDAM contraction to be lower than GM
contraction, courtesy tight cost control measures. We
build in 350bps EBITDA margin contraction YoY
(21.9%).
Net profit to grow at 3% CAGR (2-yr) to INR8.4bn
Commentary on demand trends
Commentary on input cost
trends
Rebating and discounting trends
Dealer addition trajectory
Berger Paints GOOD
Berger to marginally outpace APNT, given lower
base and its higher exposure to the less impacted
tier-2/3 and north/east focus.
We build in 23.7% YoY growth in standalone
business (+21/2% volume/realisation growth). Two-
year revenue CAGR: 15%
Given rising RM pressure, we build in ~450bps
contraction YoY in gross margin (standalone).
EBITDAM contraction would be lower than GM
contraction, courtesy tight cost control measures. We
build in 330bps EBITDA margin contraction YoY
(16.3%).
Net profit to grow at 7% (2-yr CAGR) to INR 2bn.
Commentary on demand trends
Commentary on input cost
trends
Dealer addition trajectory
Rebating and discounting trends
Kansai Nerolac WEAK
We model a 18% topline growth (to lag the top 2),
underpinned by a 20.7% YoY growth in decorative
business (19.5/1% volume realisation growth and
12% industrials growth.
On a two-year basis, topline CAGR baked in is 10%.
Given rising RM pressure, we build in ~500bps
contraction YoY in gross margin (standalone).
EBITDAM contraction to be lower than GM
contraction, courtesy tight cost control measures. We
build in 350bps EBITDA margin contraction YoY
(16.6%).
Net profit to decline to 1.68bn. (2-yr CAGR: -7%).
Commentary on performance
impact due to the second wave
Rebating and discounting trends
Dealer addition trajectory
Page | 5
Strategy report
2QFY22 Results Preview
Estimate changes
Retail The Titan Company
(Rs mn)
FY22E FY23E FY24E
New Old Change
(%) New Old
Change
(%) New Old
Change
(%)
Revenue 2,70,298 2,64,389 2.2 3,21,312 3,16,729 1.4 3,72,521 3,67,266 1.4
Gross Profit 68,941 67,699 1.8 86,467 85,234 1.4 1,00,080 98,669 1.4
Gross Profit Margin (%) 25.5 25.6 (10 bps) 26.9 26.9 - 26.9 26.9 (0 bps)
EBITDA 30,368 30,129 0.8 38,044 37,883 0.4 44,908 44,717 0.4
EBITDA margin (%) 11.2 11.4 (16 bps) 11.8 12.0 (12 bps) 12.1 12.2 (12 bps)
APAT 19,636 19,426 1.1 24,967 24,752 0.9 29,875 29,418 1.6
APAT margin (%) 7.3 7.3 (8 bps) 7.8 7.8 (4 bps) 8.0 8.0 1 bps
EPS 22.1 21.9 1.1 28.1 27.9 0.9 33.7 33.1 1.6
Source: HSIE Research
Trent Ltd
(Rs mn)
FY22E FY23E FY24E
New Old Change
(%) New Old
Change
(%) New Old
Change
(%)
Revenue 29,673 29,673 - 47,342 47,342 - 53,487 53,487 -
Gross Profit 15,017 15,017 - 24,113 24,113 - 26,849 26,849 -
Gross Profit Margin (%) 50.6 50.6 - 50.9 50.9 - 50.2 50.2 -
EBITDA 4,973 4,973 - 9,214 9,214 - 10,296 10,296 -
EBITDA margin (%) 16.8 16.8 - 19.5 19.5 - 19.2 19.2 -
APAT 1,137 1,137 - 3,153 3,153 - 3,356 3,356 -
APAT margin (%) 3.8 3.8 - 6.7 6.7 - 6.3 6.3 -
EPS (Rs) 3.2 3.2 - 8.9 8.9 - 9.4 9.4 -
Source: HSIE Research
ABFRL
(Rs mn)
FY22E FY23E FY24E
New Old Change
(%) New Old
Change
(%) New Old
Change
(%)
Revenue 74,052 73,744 0.4 95,465 95,098 0.4 1,09,869 1,09,456 0.4
Gross Profit 37,412 36,888 1.4 48,708 48,045 1.4 55,893 55,135 1.4
Gross Profit Margin (%) 50.5 50.0 50 bps 51.0 50.5 50 bps 50.9 50.4 50 bps
EBITDA 11,550 11,486 0.6 16,931 16,851 0.5 20,295 20,201 0.5
EBITDA margin (%) 15.6 15.6 2 bps 17.7 17.7 2 bps 18.5 18.5 2 bps
Source: HSIE Research
V-MART Retail
(Rs mn)
FY22E FY23E FY24E
New Old Change
(%) New Old
Change
(%) New Old
Change
(%)
Revenue 17,590 17,590 - 27,820 27,820 - 33,649 33,649 -
Gross Profit 5,632 5,632 - 9,103 9,103 - 11,010 11,010 -
Gross Profit Margin (%) 32.0 32.0 - 32.7 32.7 - 32.7 32.7 -
EBITDA 866 866 - 2,123 2,123 - 2,798 2,798 -
EBITDA margin (%) 4.9 4.9 - 7.6 7.6 - 8.3 8.3 -
APAT 343 343 - 1,224 1,224 - 1,710 1,710 -
APAT margin (%) 1.9 1.9 - 4.4 4.4 - 5.1 5.1 -
EPS (Rs) 17.4 17.4 - 62.1 62.1 - 86.8 86.8 -
Page | 6
Strategy report
2QFY22 Results Preview
TCNS Clothing
(Rs mn)
FY22E FY23E FY24E
New Old Change
(%) New Old
Change
(%) New Old
Change
(%)
Revenue 9,632 9,679 (0.5) 12,713 12,713 - 14,566 14,566 -
Gross Profit 5,586 5,612 (0.5) 7,951 7,951 - 9,102 9,102 -
Gross Profit Margin (%) 58.0 58.0 - 62.5 62.5 - 62.5 62.5 -
EBITDA (Reported) 921 854 7.9 2,205 2,174 1.4 2,535 2,517 0.7
EBITDA margin (%) 9.6 8.8 74 bps 17.3 17.1 24 bps 17.4 17.3 12 bps
Shoppers Stop
(Rs mn)
FY22E FY23E FY24E
New Old Change
(%) New Old
Change
(%) New Old
Change
(%)
Revenue 26,893 26,893 - 35,090 35,090 - 37,742 37,742 -
Gross Profit 10,697 10,697 - 14,506 14,506 - 15,602 15,602 -
Gross Profit Margin (%) 39.8 39.8 - 41.3 41.3 - 41.3 41.3 -
EBITDA 214 80 168.2 1,442 1,442 - 1,683 1,683 -
EBITDA margin (%) 0.8 0.3 50 bps 4.1 4.1 - 4.5 4.5 -
Paints – No estimate changes
Financial Summary
Company
NET SALES (Rs bn) EBITDA (Rs bn) EBITDA Margin (%) APAT (Rs. bn)
2Q
FY21
1Q
FY21
2Q
FY22E
QoQ
(%)
YoY
(%)
2Q
FY21
1Q
FY21
2Q
FY22E
QoQ
(%)
YoY
(%)
2Q
FY21
1Q
FY21
2Q
FY22E
QoQ
(bps)
YoY
(bps)
2Q
FY21
1Q
FY21
2Q
FY22E
QoQ
(%)
YoY
(%)
Food &
Grocery
Avenue
Supermarts 52.2 50.3 76.5 52.0 46.6 3.2 2.2 6.7 202.9 106.3 6.2 4.4 8.8 436 253 2.1 1.2 4.5 334 238
Jewellery
Titan 45.5 34.7 74.5 114.4 63.6 3.1 1.4 8.3 509.5 166.8 6.9 3.9 11.2 727 434 1.7 0.2 5.5 535 380
Apparel
ABFRL 10.2 7.7 19.2 148.6 88.9 (0.0) (1.6) 2.9 (282.0) NM (0.2) (20.9) 15.3 3,621 1,548 (1.8) (3.4) (0.0) 331 177
Trent 4.5 3.3 7.6 132.0 67.9 0.1 (0.3) 1.1 (442.3) NM 1.4 (9.7) 14.3 2,404 1,292 (0.5) (0.8) 0.0 88 52
STOP 2.9 2.0 5.6 176.3 90.0 (0.3) (0.6) 0.4 (170.8) NM (11.9) (31.2) 8.0 3,921 1,987 (1.0) (1.2) (0.3) 90 74
TCNS
Clothing 1.4 0.9 2.4 157.9 67.9 (0.2) (0.2) 0.3 (236.6) NM (11.3) (24.9) 13.2 3,811 2,448 (0.3) (0.4) 0.1 42 34
V-MART 1.8 1.8 3.1 73.1 75.0 (0.0) (0.0) 0.2 (1,057.7) NM (0.2) (1.1) 6.1 721 630 (0.2) (0.3) (0.1) 14 4
Paints
Asian Paints 53.5 55.9 65.4 17.1 22.3 12.7 9.1 13.2 44.6 4.4 23.6 16.4 20.2 383 (346) 8.5 5.7 8.9 313 35
Berger
Paints 17.4 18.0 21.5 19.4 23.2 3.4 2.4 3.4 43.6 2.2 19.2 13.3 16.0 269 (328) 2.2 1.4 2.3 85 6
Kansai
Nerolac 12.9 13.0 15.2 16.6 17.8 2.6 1.9 2.5 34.6 (2.9) 20.1 14.4 16.6 222 (354) 1.6 1.2 1.7 49 9
Others
Reliance
Retail 366 336 441 31.5 20.7 19.9 19.4 24.8 27.7 24.8 5.4 5.8 5.6 (17) 18
-Grocery 99 84 116 39.2 18.0 6.8 5.8 10.5 80.1 53.4 6.9 7.0 9.0 204 208
-Apparel 29 28 37 32.2 30.0 6.3 5.6 7.4 32.2 18.2 22.0 20.0 20.0 - (200)
Page | 7
Strategy report
2QFY22 Results Preview
Valuation Summary
Company Mcap
(Rs bn)
CMP
(Rs) Reco. TP (Rs)
EPS (Rs) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Core ROCE (%)
FY22E FY23E FY24E FY22E FY23E FY24E FY22E FY23E FY24E FY22E FY23E FY24E
Avenue Supermarts 3,452 5,330 SELL 2700 25.7 41.1 50.3 207 130 106 136 83 68 14.2 19.5 20.5
Titan 2,276 2,563 SELL 1600 22.1 28.1 33.7 116 91 76 76 61 51 17.1 19.1 20.4
ABFRL 242 265 BUY 310 0.0 0.0 0.0 NM 75 44 65 27 20 -2.1 6.5 10.3
Trent 410 1,154 SELL 795 3.2 8.9 9.7 527 190 174 86 47 41 5.0 10.8 10.5
STOP 24 278 SELL 210 -10.4 2.7 4.4 -27 105 63 41 13 12 -4.0 -0.4 3.2
TCNS Clothing 40 656 SELL 500 -0.2 12.6 19.8 NM 52 33 42 17 14 0.7 14.0 22.6
V-MART 85 4,322 REDUCE 3750 17.4 62.1 86.8 249 70 50 96 39 29 3.2 14.8 19.0
Asian Paints 3,162 3,297 SELL 2650 37.1 44.0 50.6 89 75 65 59 51 45 31.9 35.5 39.6
Berger Paints 815 839 SELL 710 9.0 11.0 13.0 93 76 65 58 48 41 22.1 24.7 27.3
Kansai Nerolac 327 608 BUY 700 10.4 12.8 14.9 58 48 41 36 30 25 12.4 13.9 15.1
Source: HSIE Research
Page | 8
Strategy report
2QFY22 Results Preview
HDFC securities
Institutional Equities
Unit No. 1602, 16th Floor, Tower A, Peninsula Business Park,
Senapati Bapat Marg, Lower Parel, Mumbai - 400 013
Board: +91-22-6171-7330 www.hdfcsec.com
Rating Criteria
BUY: >+15% return potential
ADD: +5% to +15% return potential
REDUCE: -10% to +5% return potential
SELL: > 10% Downside return potential
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Any holding in stock –No
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