2003 Moisture Outlook
Nolan Doesken and Roger Pielke, Sr.Colorado Climate CenterPrepared by Tara Green and Odie Bliss
http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu
Through 1999
Through 1999
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Month
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(in
ches
)
Fort Collins Total Water Year Precipitation (Oct-Sep)
Reservoir StorageReservoir Storage
Provisional Data Provided by NRCS
Statewide Reservoir Levels for Colorado
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Oct 1. 1998 Oct 1. 1999 Oct 1. 2000 Oct 1. 2001 Oct 1. 2002 Feb 1. 2003
Date
Pe
rce
nt
of
Av
era
ge
Colorado Statewide Annual Colorado Statewide Annual Temperatures through 2002Temperatures through 2002
From NOAA, National Climatic Data Center
Colorado Average Annual Temperature(1895 - 2002)
40
42
44
46
48
50
1895 1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
Tem
per
atu
re (
deg
rees
F)
Wyoming Statewide Annual Wyoming Statewide Annual Temperatures through 2002Temperatures through 2002
Wyoming Average Annual Temperature(1895 - 2002)
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
1895 1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2003Years
Tem
per
atu
re (
Deg
rees
F)
From NOAA, National Climatic Data Center
Fort Collins Summer Average Temperature(June - August), 1889-2002
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
18891899
19091919
19291939
19491959
19691979
19891999
Years
Te
mp
era
ture
(D
eg
. F)
Summer Total 7 year running mean
Summer Temperatures Summer Temperatures Fort Collins, 1889-2002Fort Collins, 1889-2002
Where do we stand now?Where do we stand now?
Temperature - Water Year 2003Temperature - Water Year 2003
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
De
pa
rtu
re f
rom
av
era
ge
, de
gre
e F
Eastern Plains Foothills Mountains Western Valleys
Water Year 2003Water Year 2003 – Colorado
UPPER SAN JUAN SNOTELUPPER SAN JUAN SNOTEL
Water Year 2003Water Year 2003 – Colorado
JOE WRIGHT SNOTELJOE WRIGHT SNOTEL
Water Year 2003Water Year 2003 – Wyoming
Power River SNOTELPower River SNOTEL
Data from USDA/NRCS
What May Be Ahead in 2003What May Be Ahead in 2003
PrecipitationPrecipitationMonthly Average Precipitation for Selected Sites
in the South Platte Basin
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Month
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(in
ches
)
Hoosier Pass Denver Stapleton Sterling
Monthly Average Precipitation for1971-2000
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
inc
he
s)
Lamar Cheyenne Wells Walsh Center Fruita
PrecipitationPrecipitation
A few storms contribute a large fraction of annual precipitation while many small events contribute a small fraction.
Greeley Daily Accumulated Precipitation
0
5
10
15
20
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecDay
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
inc
he
s)
Accumulated Daily 1999 2000 2001 2002
What Happens NextWhat Happens Next
We have never experienced 2 consecutive extreme statewide drought years.
Past multi-year drought, characterized by one extreme year preceded and followed by other dry year.
Entire Region rarely all recovers quickly and at the same time.
Hope for the best, plan for the worst!!
Positive IndicatorsPositive Indicators
Late winter snows Cool spring Multi-day precipitation Wet Snow Low intensity rainfall Light winds High humidity Abundant cloud cover
Negative IndicatorsNegative Indicators
Little late winter snow Missed opportunities Warm spring Brief, sporadic precipitation High intensity rainfall Frequent, strong winds Low humidity Abundant sunshine
Current IndicatorsCurrent Indicators
El Niño still present Unfavorable Pacific decadal oscillation Missed opportunities February better – but not a good
indicator Wet often follows dry Most extreme dry periods last one year
(Exceptions: SE CO)
TemperatureTemperatureMarch-May 2003March-May 2003
From the Colorado Prediction Centerhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html
PrecipitationPrecipitationMarch-May 2003March-May 2003
From the Colorado Prediction Centerhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html
Temperature Temperature June-Aug 2003June-Aug 2003
From the Colorado Prediction Centerhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html
PrecipitationPrecipitationJune-Aug 2003June-Aug 2003
From the Colorado Prediction Centerhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html
Breaking This Drought Breaking This Drought Will Be ToughWill Be Tough
A wet spring is essential to begin that process.
COAGMETCOAGMETWeather Data for AgricultureWeather Data for Agriculture
Automated weather stations with daily and hourly readings of:
Temperature Humidity Wind Precipitation Solar energy Evapotranspiration
http://www.COAGMET.com
Colorado Climate MagazineColorado Climate Magazine
Good bedtime reading about the climate of Colorado -- recent and historic
$15/year subscription pays printing and mailing costs
CoCo RaHSRaHSYOU CAN HELP!
http://www.cocorahs.com
Colorado Climate CenterColorado Climate CenterColorado State UniversityColorado State University
Data and Power Point Presentations available for downloading
http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu click on “Drought”
then click on “Presentations”