Download - 2010 Northwest Regional Forecast
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2010 Northwest Regional Forecast
Resource Adequacy Technical CommitteeApril 22, 2010
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The Forecast is…Sum-of-utilities integrated resource plans 10 year timeframe – updated annually Load forecasts – normal weather Conservation – utility estimates Generating resources – expected firm Hydro generation – firm (critical water) Future resources – utility plans Capacity need – utility estimates
Forecast = Needs Assessment
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Forecast ≠ Adequacy Assessment
Forecast
Deterministic
Answers 10 year questions:
How much power do we need to acquire?
What resources are planned to fill the need?
Adequacy Assessment
Loss of load probability
Answers 3-5 year question:
What is the probability that we will not meet demand?
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Needs are forecast to grow
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
18,000
19,000
20,000
21,000
22,000
23,000
24,000
25,000
26,000 Northwest Requirements & Resources
Ann
ual E
nerg
y -
MW
a
Existing Resources
Energy Efficiency
Resource Need = 2,000 MWa
Requirements
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Plans in place
Natural Gas; 1,344
Conserva-tion; 1,811
Wind; 501
Other Renewables; 334
Planned Resources3,990 MWa
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Grappling with capacityHistoric approach raises
questions◦Hydro sustained peaking capability◦Accounting for reserves/planning
margin
System Planning Committee’s interim approach used◦Survey of utilities’ capacity needs
based on individual utility criteria
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Capacity 2015 snapshot
Total Idaho Power
PacifiCorp Portland General Electric
Puget Sound Energy
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Capacity Need
Winter Summer
Meg
awat
ts
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Future focus
Understanding conservation accounting
Refining regional capacity assessment◦How to include reserves◦What to use for planning margin