Download - 2010 PM Economic Crisis
-
8/2/2019 2010 PM Economic Crisis
1/13
BEST PRACTICES IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT
ADVANCED SERIES
Managing projects in an
economic crisisWhat should project managers think ofwhen implementing projects in an uncertain economicenvironment
Prepared by:
Harjono Zainal Abidin
MENTOR Project Management Sdn Bhd
Project Managers to Energy Industry
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
URL www.mentor-solutions.com.my
E mail [email protected]
Harjono Zainal AbidinQUORUM Oil & Gas Sdn Bhd
-
8/2/2019 2010 PM Economic Crisis
2/13
THE FIRST STEP
Planning process Business environment
- Range of external factorsthat may influence theproject
Regional & Global scale
- -
factors
Areas of Uncertainty Economic Crisis
Peak Oil
19-Oct-2010 2MENTOR Project Management Sdn Bhd
-
8/2/2019 2010 PM Economic Crisis
3/13
STANDARD PRACTICE Framework
PROCESSES
KNOWLEDGE AREAS
19-Oct-2010 3
Refer Project Management Insitutewww.pmi.org
MENTOR Project Management Sdn Bhd
-
8/2/2019 2010 PM Economic Crisis
4/13
Planning Process Activities
IDENTIFYANALYSE/FORMULATE
19-Oct-2010 4
MONITOR/RE-ASSESS
MENTOR Project Management Sdn Bhd
-
8/2/2019 2010 PM Economic Crisis
5/13
PROJECT: NEW OIL Co. BUSINESS
Energy projects timeline 30 years
experience level?
Work Program & Budget estimate of the production barrels
potential value.$$$
Planning for projects beyond 2010.
19-Oct-2010 QUORUM Oil & Gas Sdn Bhd 5
-
8/2/2019 2010 PM Economic Crisis
6/13
NEW OIL Co. BUSINESS PLAN
Project 1Oil Field
EXECUTIONProcurementConstructionInstallation
tion
arrelsperday
ces
er&Equipment
day
Project Life CycleLong View
Short View
CLOSE-OUTHand-over to Production
19-Oct-2010 QUORUM Oil & Gas Sdn Bhd 6
20152012 2013 20142010 20112005 2030 2040 205020202010
Project 2Gas Field
Project 3Oil Field
INITIATIONEntrepreneurshipPolitics & EconomicsFunding
PLANNINGLegal & RegulatoryFeasibility StudiesExplorationDevelopmentEngineering
CONTROLMonitoring
1st OilStart Revenue
Prod
u
Millio
n
Reso
ur
Manpow
Costper
-
8/2/2019 2010 PM Economic Crisis
7/13
PROJECT REVENUE
Production
Million
barrelsperday
Total Reserves
Revenue depends on estimate ofTotal Recoverable Reserves800 Million bbls
And the value of a barrel of oil!1 Barrel = USD X ?
Select Conservative median or most likely plan
19-Oct-2010 7
2030 2040 205020202010
Revenue
MillionUSD
0
Total Revenue
Total Expense CostCAPEX
Based on USD70 per barrel of oilBenchmark Gold USD 30 per gram in2009.
NOTE:As of 15-Oct-2010Oil USD83 per barrelGold USD 41 per gram
variations to be continuously monitored
(+)
(-)
MENTOR Project Management Sdn Bhd
-
8/2/2019 2010 PM Economic Crisis
8/13
ost$Millions
WORK PROGRAM & BUDGET
YEAR
Holding CoEXPENSEAdministrationHuman CapitalRegulatoryExploration &DevelopmentMaintenance
REVENUEProduction
2010
$$$
2040
$$$
2020
$$$
2030
$$$
2050
$$$
Best
Median
19-Oct-2010 MENTOR Project Management Sdn Bhd 8
Oilfield BOilfield C
TREASURYSovereign WealthFund
SubsidiariesRefinery
Tank FarmPetrochemicalsPortUtilitiesPowerWaterCommunicationsOther Essential Svs
PLANNING CASE STUDIESEnables Management to make
well-informed decisions with restraintNot overly ambitious
Worst
-
8/2/2019 2010 PM Economic Crisis
9/13
SCENARIO: HEAD FAKE
200
250
300
2015USD300 bbl
Hoperevealed as
Illusion
Depletion ofsupergiant
oilfields
2013USD150 bbl
S2010
S2008
Source:
Oil Head-Fake Update 2010Global Recession Triggers Price CollapseCharles Hugh Smith www.oftwominds.com
We are here!
2009USD85 bbl
Global recessiondrives price down
19-Oct-2010 9
20152012 2013 20142010 201120092008
50
100
150
2014USD125 bblHope of new prod& tech miracles
drops
belowdemand
2011 - 2012USD25 bblGlobal recessiondestroys demand
Massive stimulus
drives demand up
Oil exporters pumpmax to maintainrevenue, pricecollapses
USD150 bblGlobalspeculationdrives price up
2007USD50 bbl
2007
OilP
rice
US
D
perbarrel
MENTOR Project Management Sdn Bhd
-
8/2/2019 2010 PM Economic Crisis
10/13
PEAK OIL?
19-Oct-2010 QUORUM Oil & Gas Sdn Bhd 10
-
8/2/2019 2010 PM Economic Crisis
11/13
GLOBAL OIL & GAS PRODUCTION
Natural Gas LiquidsPolarDeepwaterHeavy Oil
Regular Oil
OilP
ro
duction
MillionBa
rrelsPerDay
We are here!80 Mbpd
Source: Association for the Study of Peak Oil & GasPostPeakLiving.com
80OilPrice
USD
perbbl
19-Oct-2010 11
20101930 20502030
60
40
20
0
1980 1990 20001970 2020 2040196019501940
60 Mbpd
MENTOR Project Management Sdn Bhd
-
8/2/2019 2010 PM Economic Crisis
12/13
Origins of Financial/Economic Crisis
19-Oct-2010 QUORUM Oil & Gas Sdn Bhd 12
Wars
Oil Price
-
8/2/2019 2010 PM Economic Crisis
13/13
ECONOMIC CRISIS?
19-Oct-2010 QUORUM Oil & Gas Sdn Bhd 13