2012 BC Check-Up
In a year marked by on-going global economic uncertainty, BC’s economy held its own in 2011.
The province enjoyed a second consecutive year of strong export growth (13.9%) due to high
commodity prices. While export demand from the European and US markets was subdued -
due largely in part to their weakened economies - this was more than offset by growth in
the Asia Pacific markets, and BC’s exports rebounded to their pre-recession levels last year.
In addition, BC’s real GDP grew by 2.9% in 2011, and further gains were made in the first
quarter of 2012.
However, no one lives in a vacuum. Last year, investors in BC, and around the world, faced
growing uncertainty due to the European Union financial market crisis and ongoing US
economic stagnation. This continues to be the case in 2012, as the world waits to see how the
EU debt crisis will be resolved, and whether or not the Chinese economy will achieve a “soft
landing” (a rate of economic growth high enough to avoid recession, but slow enough to
avoid high inflation.)
BC is into its second year of recovery since the recession of 2009. While unemployment rates
remain higher than the historic lows recorded three years ago, the province’s current rate of
7.5% remains in step with the national average.
In an attempt to further stimulate their economies, BC and many other Canadian provinces have
run fiscal deficits, and seen a corresponding growth in their debt loads for the past few years.
Nevertheless, BC’s economy appears to be making positive inroads, with growth driven by
world demand for its high-priced natural resources. A key economic force underlying our
province’s renewed economic growth is its unprecedented number of major project
investments, primarily in natural gas, mining, utilities, forest products and non-residential
construction. This new wave of capital investment – for projects either currently proposed or
underway - promises to help pave the way for BC’s future position as an international leader
in both resource production and export. In addition, considerable public and private capital is
being poured into strategic infrastructure projects (water, road and air) that will strengthen
BC as a transportation hub and reduce both industrial and social transportation costs.
In this year’s BC Check-Up, we are featuring eight “big ticket” investment projects that are
either underway or in progress. This section looks at the details of these significant projects,
and identifies the different issues related to each venture. It should be stated that these
projects are only a small selection of a large number of exciting new investments, but each
will play an integral role in helping shape BC’s future economic identity.
INTRODUCTION
BC Still on Recovery Track in 2011
Most of BC’s LIVE, WORK and INVEST indicators showed
ongoing improvement in 2011, as the province enjoyed its
second consecutive year of economic recovery.
BC’s labour productivity rose 3.7% in 2011, the best
showing of all our comparison jurisdictions, which include
Alberta, Ontario, and Canada as a whole. Between 2006
and 2011, the province recorded a 3.4% growth in labour
productivity - an increase that partially explains a 5.5%
increase in real wage per worker during this time, despite
the fact that BC’s real wage sagged slightly in 2011.1
The value of BC’s exports per worker grew by 13.2% in
2011, the second year of positive growth, and within our
comparison jurisdictions, second only to Alberta’s
increase of 15%, which was heavily weighted by high-
priced energy products.
In 2010, BC recorded a 6.6% spike in the science share of
employment, however, this indicator declined slightly—by
0.1 percentage points (ppt)—in 2011. In contrast this
indicator rose during this same period in Alberta, Ontario
and Canada.
In 2011, BC’s government debt increased by 1.2 ppt,
reaching 16.4% of provincial GDP. Although this was the
fourth annual increase in a row, BC still enjoys a
government debt/GDP ratio well below that of Ontario
and the national average.
BC’s labour force grew by 18,200 jobs in 2011, and the
unemployment rate was reduced to 7.5%. Unfortunately a
large percentage of these new jobs were part time, a
trend not shared by the other comparison jurisdictions,
where the majority of job creation was full-time
employment.
Educational attainment in BC’s provincial labour force
rose by 1.5 ppt. This growth continues a trend that has
occurred annually for the past decade. While BC’s labour
force educational attainment is still below the national
average, this was the largest one-year gain of any of the
comparison jurisdictions.
1
1 Source:StatisticsCanada2 Thisisconsumerdebtheldatcharteredbanks,whichaccountsforapproximately¾ofallhouseholddebt.3 TDBankEconomics,Provincial Economic Forecast,July9,2012.
One of the most surprising developments in 2011 was the
national and provincial spike in debt per capita. Between
2010 and 2011, BC’s consumer debt per capita rose by
29.6%, to reach $53,130.2 Although this was the smallest
increase of all the comparison jurisdictions (the national
average increased by 33%), in comparison to Alberta,
Ontario, and Canada, BC continues to have the highest
absolute level of debt per capita. As such, BC’s residents
are the most vulnerable in the country to economic
shocks or interest rate increases.
Our indicators show that health care in BC continues to
be a government priority. In 2011, health care
expenditures per capita rose slightly, by 0.8%. BC
continues to enjoy the second highest ranking in the
Health Consumer Index, outperforming other provinces in
terms of consumer accessibility and friendliness.
The results for young workers in 2011 were mixed. The
Youth at Risk indicator improved, and the share of young
workers without high school education declined by 1.9
ppt, to reach 6.2%. This was the lowest of the comparison
jurisdictions, and below the national average of 9.5%.
However, the provincial youth unemployment rate rose
0.2 ppt, to reach 14%. On the positive side, two minimum
wage hikes in 2011 served to improve the purchasing
power of both young and lower income workers, a good
sign for a province with a very high cost of living.
Where are we going?
In 2012, the outlook for BC’s economy is a slower real
GDP growth rate (2.1%), and little change in the
unemployment rate.3 It is expected that this moderate
slowdown will be the result of reduced government
spending, as BC endeavours to eliminate its deficit, and
reduced activity in the provincial housing market.
However, ongoing demand in China, and the prospect of
renewed housing construction in the US, will continue to
fuel exports of BC coal, energy, and lumber. In the longer
term, major natural gas and hydroelectricity projects will
also stimulate continued economic growth in the north
and throughout BC.
2
With economic growth, political stability, and an excellent
Provincial Government credit rating, it is easy to become
complacent with BC’s economic performance. However,
at both the individual and policymaker levels, it is
important to remain cognizant of the economic risks
associated with accumulation of debt.
We must also gain a better understanding of why so
many new jobs in BC are part time, and why there has
been no improvement in BC’s youth unemployment rate -
the highest in the West - even as young workers’
educational credentials are improving. Our overall
economic prospects are very good, but we need to find
ways to ensure that the next generation of workers
participate in, and benefit from, this legacy.
In light of these important issues facing our province’s
economy, our focus section in this year’s BC Check-Up
centres on current investment trends in BC; as previously
mentioned, this section looks at eight new, large-scale
investment projects and how they will help shape not
only the province’s economic identity, but that of its
current and future inhabitants.
4 BCMinistryofJobs,TourismandInnovation,March2012andMarch2006.BC Major Project Inventory.
AProfileofSomeofBC’sBiggestInvestments
Investment Trends in BC
In 2012, BC experienced a third consecutive year of
economic growth and the province continues to steadily
recover from the downturn of 2008-2009. Factors
driving this economic renewal include rising international
prices, increased demand for our resources (both
globally and domestically), and large-scale injections of
capital investment. BC’s abundant resources, political
stability, solid fiscal record, and high credit rating make
the province an attractive place to invest.
In the first quarter of 2012, the value of all projects under
construction in BC totalled $78.9 billion - a 25% increase
over the first quarter of 2011, and one marked by
significant growth in investment activity in mining and
energy projects. For example, in the first quarter of 2012,
there were 70 mining, and oil and gas projects either
proposed or underway in BC; in comparison, in the first
quarter of 2006, there were 42 projects.4
These resource projects will provide substantial economic
benefits to a number of smaller communities throughout
the province, many of which have suffered from stagnant
or declining job markets. These benefits include job
creation and higher incomes, as well as greater spending
on local goods and services.
The largest resource projects are situated in northern BC,
where many of the province’s mineral, coal, oil and gas,
and timber resources are concentrated. Northern
communities, like Ft. St. John, are reporting strong
population growth, and ballooning school enrolments, as
more workers - attracted by good job prospects - move
there with their families.
33
Rising international demand for our province’s resources
has contributed to the growth of BC’s status as a key
Pacific Rim transportation and commercial hub. New
industry needs and consumer preferences have changed
the nature of major public and private sector
infrastructure investments. New container terminals in
Delta and Prince Rupert have bolstered the province’s
capacity for specialized cargo and its ability to trade with
Asian markets, while the proposed construction of
another terminal is currently under consideration. The
provincial government continues to invest in major
strategic infrastructure that will provide for the improved
and more efficient transportation of both people and
goods. This includes projects such the Prince George
runway expansion, new rapid transit, the Cape Horn
exchange and Port Mann Bridge, and twinning Highway
97A between Dawson Creek and Fort St. John.
What is the status of the BC’s biggest projects? There are
hundreds of capital projects, either proposed or
underway in our province; here are the profiles of some
big ticket items that promise to help shape a new future
for BC.
Kitimat Modernization Project: Kitimat, capital amount:
$2.7 billion
This modernization of the existing smelter in Kitimat will
boost future output of aluminum by 48% to 420,000
tonnes per year. Once finished, the upgraded smelter will
be powered by wholly-owned hydro-electricity. Project
approval was announced by investor Rio Tinto Alcan in
December 2011, and the first metal is expected to come
on-stream in the first half of 2014.
Rio Tinto is an international mining group headquartered
in the UK, combining Rio Tinto plc, a London and NYSE
listed company, and Rio Tinto Limited, which is listed on
the Australian Securities Exchange.
The permitting process for this investment was lengthy:
in 2007, a resolution of a long term labour agreement
with 16 unions was achieved, along with assurances on
environmental permitting issues. A full four years later in
2011, the BC Utilities Commission accepted the 2007
Energy Purchase Agreement (EPA) between Rio Tinto
Alcan and BC Hydro.
The major project benefits of the Kitimat Modernization
Project include a reduction in production costs (making
Alcan smelter more competitive worldwide), the creation
of 2,500 jobs during peak construction and 1,000 in
operations, and a 50% reduction in the smelter’s carbon
dioxide emissions. While aluminum prices declined in late
2011, this did not delay development of this project, and
prices are predicted to start to rise in late 2012,
continuing through to 2013.
Coal and Metallic Minerals
4
Quintette Coal Mine: Tumbler Ridge, capital amount
$500 million
After 18 years of production, poor market conditions
forced the Quintette Coal Mine, located near Tumbler
Ridge, to close its doors in 2000. Since this time however
a turnaround in international coal prices has made the
re-opening the mine a fiscally attractive venture. The
owner, Teck Resources, is expected to complete a
feasibility study by the second quarter of 2012; upon
completion the mine will be able to resume operations
for another 16 years - with the goal of producing
approximately 3 million tonnes of coal per year. Teck has
ordered long-lead equipment, including trucks and drills,
undertaken on-site work, and is presently working
through the required regulatory processes. If the project
is deemed to be feasible, and if it can satisfy all
regulatory and environmental requirements, the mine
could begin operations in late 2013.
Teck is a diversified resource company headquartered in
Vancouver with major business units focused on copper,
steelmaking, coal, zinc and energy. Re-opening the
Quintette mine would create 350 to 400 direct jobs, and
increased community related income. This would benefit
workers and their families in Tumbler Ridge, an area hard
hit by the mine’s closure in 2000, as well as those who
move to the area to work once it has reopened.
Energy
Kitimat LNG Terminal: Kitimat, BC, capital amount
$3 billion
This proposed project is a liquid natural gas export
facility at Bish Cove, located 18 kilometers south of
Kitimat. It would include natural gas liquefaction, LNG
storage, and marine on-loading facilities. Natural gas
would be transported by a 14 kilometer, 30 inch pipeline
from Pacific Trail Pipelines, and would then connect to
the existing Spectra Energy Westcoast Pipeline system
and the North American grid.
The Kitimat LNG (KLNG) terminal is a joint venture
between Apache Canada Ltd. (a 40% owner), EOG
Resources Canada Inc. (a 30% owner), and Encana
Corporation (a 30% owner). Feed natural gas would be
transported to this facility from gas fields throughout
Northern BC and Alberta. Target export markets are
predominantly Asia-Pacific Rim based, including China,
South Korea and Japan.
The KLNG project has received approval under the BC
Environmental Assessment Act. Federal approval has
been also been received, and the National Energy Board
has approved a 20-year licence to export natural gas. A
front-end engineering and design study is underway for
the liquification facility and, when concluded, the venture
partners will jointly decide whether to proceed with the
project. Site preparation is now underway at Bish Cove,
with estimated completion by 2015.
The proposed facility enjoys close proximity to an
existing pipeline system that transports natural gas from
the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. It also enjoys a
location advantage, with easy transport to the Asia
Pacific market, and close proximity to one of the West
Coast’s best deep-water ports. Construction and
operation of this facility would generate a significant
number of new jobs and increased income, both direct
and indirect, to local communities. It is also expected to
help stimulate the BC energy sector in the long term,
generating further economic benefits and new industrial
clusters in both the North Coast Development Region,
and BC as a whole.
5
Forest Kerr Run-of-River Hydroelectric Project:
Iskut River, Northwest BC, $700 million
The 195 Megawatt (MW) Forest Kerr Run-of-River project
is situated 1,100 kilometers northwest of Vancouver in the
Iskut River Valley. When completed, it will consist of a
weir that diverts water through a 3 kilometer tunnel, into
turbines in an underground powerhouse, and then back
to the river further downstream. The electricity will flow
37 kilometers via the Northwest Transmission Line to the
substation at Bob Quinn Lake; from there it will be used
for northwest industrial development.
Forest Kerr is one of three hydroelectric projects
proposed for the Iskut River; together these would
account for one of the largest run-of-river projects in
North America. The Forest Kerr project is owned by
AltaGas, an energy infrastructure company with assets in
Canada. Construction on the project began in the spring
of 2011, and as of March 2012, most of the tunneling was
completed. The project is expected to be in service by
mid-2014.
The benefits from this project will be felt locally and
province-wide. The communities of Dease Lake, Iskut,
Telegraph Creek, Smithers and Terrace will benefit from
new employment opportunities this, and the other
hydroelectric projects, will create. At its peak, the project
will create over 400 jobs - stimulating demand for local
goods and services. A 2010 impact benefit agreement
(IBA) signed between the Tahltan Nation and Coast
Mountain Hydro LP (a subsidiary of AltaGas), outlined
agreements on environmental and cultural protections,
and ensured economic participation for the Tahltan. As of
December 2011, 93% of all work performed on the Forest
Kerr project site had been performed by either Tahltan
companies or joint ventures, while one third of all workers
belong to the Tahltan Nation.5 At the provincial level, the
Forrest Kerr project will contribute significantly to
economic development and government revenues, and
help move BC towards its goal of energy self-sufficiency.
Site C Clean Energy Project: Ft. St. John, capital amount
$8 billion
BC Hydro’s Site C Clean Energy Project (Site C) is a
proposed dam and hydroelectric generating station
located on the Peace River in northeast BC. The third
hydroelectric project on the Peace River system, Site C
would add up to 1,100 megawatts of capacity into the
provincial energy grid. Total capital cost would be
approximately $8 billion, with a construction period of
seven years.
This is one of several projects under consideration that,
once completed, would add to BC’s provincial energy
capacity and help meet the province’s goal of energy
self-sufficiency. The Site C project was first considered in
the late 1970s; due to strong local public opposition,
particularly from environmental interests and land
owners whose properties would have been flooded by
the reservoir, work on the project stalled. It was reviewed
again in the early 1990s, but again did not proceed.
In April 2010, the BC government announced that the
Site C project would proceed subject to environmental
approval. At present, it is undergoing an environmental
review by the Canadian Environmental Assessment
Agency and the British Columbia Environmental
Assessment office. This assessment began in July 2012,
and addresses economic, social, health, First Nation and
environment issues.
BC Hydro estimates that Site C would create
approximately 7,000 full time equivalent jobs of direct
construction employment during construction period, as
well as substantial direct and indirect income.6 The
impact of these benefits would be felt by local workers
and their families, as well as workers, contractors, and
suppliers throughout BC. At a time when oil, gas and
mining activity is strong in northeast BC, the Site C
project would add to what is already a very buoyant
economy.
5 TahltanCentralCouncilwebsite,http://www.tahltan.org/news/altagas-hydroelectric-run-river-updates.(AccessedJune2012).6 BCHydrowebsite,http://www.bchydro.com/energy_in_bc/projects/site_c/faqs.html(accessedJune2012).
6
Fairview Terminal Phase 2: Prince Rupert, capital amount
$650 million
Container ships have been calling on the Prince Rupert
Container Terminal since its completion in 2007. The
proposed Phase 2 is expected to quadruple the capacity
of this facility to 2 million TEUs (twenty foot equivalent
units) – an increase that will allow the Terminal to keep
up with BC’s growing role in Asia-Pacific trade. The
project will extend the wharf, increase the dock area and
on-site storage capacity, and quadruple the number of
post-panamax cranes. It also includes the creation of a
$90 million road rail utility corridor.
Prince Rupert Port enjoys the advantage of being the
closest major North American port to the Asian market.
Shorter ocean travel times and direct on-dock linkage to
the CN Rail network together translate into faster
shipping times. Between January and June 2012, the
Fairview Terminal handled 87.1% more containers than it
did during the same period last year.
After experiencing over a decade of stagnant economic
activity and population outflow, this project has the full
backing of the community of Prince Rupert; the Prince
Rupert Port Authority has also enlisted local First Nation
support. The environmental permitting process for this
project is almost complete, and it is anticipated that
construction would begin by the end of 2012. The final
commercial decision will be made by the terminal
operator, Maher Terminals LLC of Newark, N.J.
Infrastructure
Seaspan Marine Corporation National Shipbuilding
Procurement Strategy Contract: North Vancouver and
Victoria, capital amount $8 billion
Seaspan Marine Corporation was awarded an $8 billion
defense contract by the Canadian federal government in
October 2011 for the construction of seven non-combat
vessels, including offshore science vessels, a polar
icebreaker for the Coast Guard, and two joint support
ships for the Canadian Navy. Seaspan Marine Corporation
is an association of Canadian companies primarily
involved in coastal and deep sea transportation,
bunkering, ship repair, and shipbuilding services in
Western North America
Seaspan Marine Corporation and the federal government
completed an umbrella agreement for this work in
January 2012. Construction of new buildings and
infrastructure at both Vancouver Shipyards and Victoria
Shipyards is expected to start this year, and work on the
first vessel is slated for late 2013. Approximately 80% of
the work will be done at Seaspan’s North Vancouver yard
and the remaining 20 per cent at its facility in Victoria;
major vessel construction will take place in North
Vancouver, and finishing and electronics will be installed
in Victoria.
This is not only a major economic stimulus for Southwest
BC, but is an important step in the renewal in our
province’s moribund shipbuilding industry. Economic
benefits to be enjoyed by the province include $15 billion
in investment throughout the life of the contract, and
over 4,000 new jobs over the next eight years.
While Canada’s Department of Defense was forced to
delay production on combat vessels in Eastern Canada
due to recent government budget cuts, this has so far
had no effect on Seaspan’s non-combat contract, and as
of July 2012 work on this project is full speed ahead.
Evergreen Rapid Transit Project: Burnaby to Coquitlam,
capital amount $1.4 billion
Population growth in the Northeast sector of Metro
Vancouver — Port Moody, Port Coquitlam, Anmore and
Belcarra — is exerting pressure on the sector’s existing
road system, and has resulted in increased road
congestion - a problem that effects individuals,
communities, businesses, and the environment. The
Evergreen Line is Metro Vancouver’s newest rapid transit
line that will extend from Lougheed Town Centre Station
in Burnaby, to Douglas College in Coquitlam, and will
provide a connection between Coquitlam and downtown
Vancouver via the Millenium and Expo lines. Construction
on the Evergreen Line began in January 2012, and
completion is expected by summer 2016.
In addition to providing better connectivity and more
choice for commuters, the Evergreen Line will expand the
existing transit and road system in Metro Vancouver. It
will also pave the way for more concentrated and
mix-use development along the corridor, helping to meet
municipal growth management targets outlined in Metro
Vancouver’s Livable Region Strategic Plan. By
encouraging more commuters to use public transit, the
Evergreen Line can help reduce road congestion,
therefore making road transportation more efficient for
commercial vehicles.
7
Conclusions
The major investments underway throughout BC, especially in the resource sector, point to an increased diffusion of
economic activity and wealth throughout BC’s Interior, Northeast and Northwest regions. These regions have the
resources — coal, minerals, oil and gas, and timber — that correspond to market demand, especially those of the rapidly
developing Asian countries.
These projects are paving the way for long-term prosperity throughout the province. While all of BC stands to gain
from a growth in exports from these regions, our northern communities will enjoy the most immediate benefits, in the
form of jobs, increased spending, and population growth.
BC’s new public and private sector infrastructure projects are strategically important because they will enhance our
province’s overall competitiveness, providing better and faster land, air, and sea linkages, and more efficient transport
of people and goods, both within, and between our cities. The Seaspan shipbuilding contract will not only generate
jobs and income throughout its construction, but pave the way for the long term rebirth of an old industry in BC.
All of these projects will, or have the potential to contribute to a future where BC increases its trade with other
countries, achieves self-sufficiency in energy production and consumption, improves cost competitiveness, and
enhances productivity gains. For some of the major private sector investments, such as unconventional gas
development or oil/gas pipelines, there is a wide array of environmental and social concerns that will need to be
addressed before they gain public acceptance.
The provincial government is actively working on reducing investment barriers and attracting new talent through
initiatives such as the BC Jobs Plan and the Natural Gas Strategy. Looking forward, it will need to continually monitor
its tax policies and regulatory system to ensure it is clear and predictable to investors and businesses alike.
8
Educational attainment is expressed
as the percentage of the labour force
aged 25 to 64 with post-secondary
accreditation.
Unemployment rate is represented by
the number of unemployed persons
as a percentage of the labour force,
which is defined as people aged 15
and older who are employed or
actively looking for work.
Job creation is represented by the
annual change in the number of
employed workers.
Real Labour Compensation per
Employee is remuneration received
by an individual for work done, in the
form of wages of salary, and including
employers’ social contributions,
before deducting government
transfers.
Real labour productivity measures
the efficiency of the workforce (how
much output can be produced in one
hour), and is calculated as the ratio of
real GDP to total hours worked by the
labour force.
Proportion of natural and applied
sciences jobs reflects the extent of
technical knowledge dissemination
throughout the workforce.
Exports per worker is the ratio of the
inflation-adjusted value of exports to
the number of workers (or exports
per capita). Exports include
shipments to other countries and
other provinces (both goods and
services are included).
Government Net Debt as a
Percentage of GDP measures the
fiscal position of a provincial
government.
Consumer Debt includes both
personal and mortgage debt.
Youth at risk is defined as the
percentage of the labour force aged
19 to 24 lacking a high school
diploma.
Health Care is measured by two
indicators:
• Provincial government health care
expenditure per capita, and,
• Canada Health Consumer Index
ranking among the provinces.
work invest live
B C C h e c k - U p i n d i c a t o r s
A b o u t t h e B C C h e c k - U p
Since 1999, the Institute of Chartered Accountants of BC (ICABC) has used
selected economic and social indicators to evaluate BC as a place to work, invest,
and live. In order to provide context, BC’s progress levels are compared with
those of Alberta and Ontario, as well as Canada as a whole. The data is obtained
from Statistics Canada, and supplemented with information from other credible
published sources.
9
Summary of WORK Key Indicators BC AB ON CAN
Job Creation (000’s) 18,200 77,500 121,300 265,200
Unemployment Rate 7.5% 5.5% 7.8% 7.4%
Educational Attainment 65.9% 64.4% 69.7% 68.2%
Labour Compensation per Employee $48,244 $67,220 $51,866 $51,397
Job Creation 0.8% 3.8% 1.8% 1.6%
Unemployment Rate -0.1 ppt -1.0ppt -0.9 ppt -0.6 ppt
Educational Attainment 1.5 ppt -0.3 ppt 1.2 ppt 0.9 ppt
Labour Compensation per Employee 1.6% 1.8% -1.6% 0.2%
Job Creation 5.9% 9.3% 4.4% 5.5%
Unemployment Rate 2.7 ppt 2.1 ppt 1.5 ppt 1.1 ppt
Educational Attainment 4.9 ppt 3.7 ppt 4.6 ppt 4.3 ppt
Labour Compensation per Employee 2.3% 7.5% -0.5% 3.2%
work
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10
Notes:
Anincreaseinthevalueoftheseindicators(exceptforunemploymentratewhereadecreaseindicatesimprovement)
meansanimprovementinthequalityoftheprovince’sWORKenvironment.
ppt=percentagepointchange
FouroutoffourofBC’sworkindicatorsimprovedin2011:jobcreation(0.8%),unemploymentrate(-0.1ppt),
educationalattainment(1.5ppt),andlabourcompensationperemployee(1.6%)wereallinpositiveterritorylastyear.
However,evenwiththeincrease,BC’srateofeducationalattainment(65.9%)stilllaggedOntario(69.7%)andthe
nationalaverage(68.2%).
BCalsorankedlast,andbyasignificantmargin,forlabourcompensationwhencomparedtoAlberta,Ontario,and
thenationalaverage.ThetablebelowshowshowBCcomparedwithAlberta,Ontario,andthenationalaverageon
ourfourkeyindicatorsoveroneandfive-yearperiods.
Job Creation
Job creation is one of the most important and commonly
used indicators to assess the state of the labour market.
After a 1.7% increase in this indicator in 2010, BC’s job
creation rate slowed in 2011, with an increase of 0.8%.
This marked an absolute increase of 18,200 jobs, with the
provincial total reaching 2.28 million. Most of these
occurred in Vancouver, where the number of jobs rose by
31,100. However, this growth was offset by job losses in
Victoria, Abbotsford, and other communities around BC.
As in previous years, the service sector led the way, with
a total gain of 13,400 jobs (an increase of 0.7%.) The
greatest gains were in accommodation and food services
(19,500 new jobs), professional, scientific and technical
(7,800 new jobs), real estate and leasing (6,800 new
jobs), and transportation and warehousing (5,500 new
jobs). In contrast, there were substantial losses in the
trade sector (-15,100 jobs) - a reflection of subdued
domestic and international demand for these services.
Other sectors reporting losses include finance and
insurance (-9,200 jobs); health care and social assistance
(-2,900 jobs); and public administration (-2,500 jobs), as
government sought to reduce its spending.
Compared to services, BC’s goods sector recorded a
much smaller gain of 4,700 new jobs in 2011, an increase
of 1.1%. Overall, employment in this area of the labour
market was boosted by major investments throughout
the province and 14,100 new construction jobs were
generated in 2011. Non-durable manufacturing saw
another 3,000 new jobs, while employment in mining,
and oil and gas rose by 2,000 jobs. Nevertheless, these
substantial gains were offset by losses in durables
manufacturing (-4,900 jobs); agriculture (-5,700 jobs);
and utilities (-1,200 jobs).
It is notable that employment in BC’s manufacturing
sector has steadily declined since the mid-2000s. In
2004, at its peak, it accounted for 206,000 jobs and 51%
of the province’s goods sector employment. In contrast,
by 2011, employment numbers had decreased to 163,900
jobs, or 37% of jobs in this sector. Rationalization and
greater efficiencies in the forest products industry
account for the majority of this decline.
In 2011, BC’s job creation rate of 0.8% lagged Alberta,
Ontario, and the national average (3.8%, 1.8%, and 1.6%
respectively). BC also has a much higher proportion of
part-time jobs than the other jurisdictions. Of the 18,200
new jobs created in BC, 48% were part time. Part of this
can be explained by the decline of the manufacturing
sector, where jobs are largely full time. In Alberta, 3.4% of
all new jobs were part time, while in Ontario the share of
part time jobs declined from 19.3% to 19%. In Canada
overall, part time positions made up 19% of new jobs.
11
Unemployment
The unemployment rate is a key indicator of economic
health, reflecting the balance between the number of
workers and available jobs. A sluggish US market, and
concern over the growing European Union debt crisis
dampened the BC economy throughout 2011, but was
mitigated somewhat by brisk export growth to the
Pacific Rim. The net outcome was a slight improvement
in our provincial labour market. In 2011, BC’s
unemployment rate declined by 0.1 ppt in 2011, to reach
7.5%. This marked the second consecutive year of decline.
While our province’s labour force grew in 2011, the rate of
participation declined slightly, and the growth in the
number of jobs slightly outgrew the number of workers.
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
BC 2.6% 3.5% 2.0% -2.1% 1.7% 0.8%
AB 5.0% 3.9% 3.1% -1.4% -0.4% 3.8%
ON 1.2% 1.8% 1.6% -2.5% 1.7% 1.8%
CAN 1.8% 2.4% 1.7% -1.6% 1.4% 1.6%
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey
Growth Rate of Job CreationAnnualGrowthinTotalEmployment
Labour market conditions worsened slightly for BC’s youth in 2011. Youth unemployment increased by 0.2 ppt for
the fourth year in a row, reaching 14%. As discussed in our regional reports earlier in 2012, there were some significant
exceptions to this trend. For example, in Northeast BC, the youth unemployment rate shrank to 4.7% in 2011, well below
the provincial average.
Looking to other jurisdictions, Alberta again enjoyed the lowest unemployment rate in 2011 at 5.5% when compared
to BC and Ontario (7.5% and 7.8% respectively). BC was on a par with the national average rate.
Educational Attainment
The level of educational attainment in the labour force reflects the degree of knowledge-based industry in an economy,
and is a hallmark of future productivity. In 2011, BC’s level of labour force educational attainment7 continued to rise,
reaching 65.9%. This is a marked contrast with a decade ago, when it stood at 57.8%, well below the levels recorded
by Alberta and Ontario.
Almost all of BC’s growth in this indicator occurred among workers with a bachelor’s degree or post-secondary
certificate. However, last year marked the second consecutive year that BC recorded a decline (-6.2 ppt) in the
number of workers with accreditation higher than a bachelor’s degree. This stands in contrast with the other
comparison jurisdictions, where the fastest growing labour group were workers with educational attainment higher
than a bachelor’s degree.
Overall, while Ontario, Alberta, and the western provinces have also watched their levels of labour force educational
attainment rise, BC has shown the fastest growth rate in the past one and five years (1.5 and 4.9 ppt respectively).
Our province still lags behind Ontario and the national average, but the gap appears to be closing.
12
7 Educationalattainmentisthepercentageofthelabourforcebetweenages25and54thathasreceivedsomelevelofpost-secondaryeducationincluding:post-secondary,certificatesordiplomas,
bachelordegrees,and/ormasters,andhigherleveldegrees.
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
BC 4.8% 4.3% 4.6% 7.7% 7.6% 7.5%
AB 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% 6.6% 6.5% 5.5%
ON 6.3% 6.4% 6.5% 9.0% 8.7% 7.8%
CAN 6.3% 6.0% 6.1% 8.3% 8.0% 7.4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
BC 8.4% 7.7% 8.5% 13.3% 13.8% 14.0%
AB 6.8% 7.2% 7.5% 12.2% 11.6% 10.7%
ON 13.3% 13.0% 13.7% 17.5% 17.2% 15.8%
CAN 11.7% 11.2% 11.6% 15.2% 14.8% 14.2%
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey
UnemploymentPercentageUnemployed
Youth Unemployment RatePercentageUnemployed
13
Real Labour Compensation
Real labour compensation per worker captures real
economic gains made by individual workers, netting out
inflation effects. It is defined here as the ratio of labour
compensation (wages and salaries and supplementary
income paid to employees8) to the number of workers,
adjusted for inflation with the Consumer Price Index.9
It is calculated on a gross, pre-tax basis.
Since the early 2000s, Canadians have generally enjoyed
rising real wages. A booming construction sector, and
increases in the price of oil and other commodities have
boosted wages in the resource industry. Higher
educational attainment has also contributed to this trend.
In particular, women with post-secondary education have
seen their real wages grow.
In BC, real annual labour compensation per employee
increased by 1.6% to reach $48,244 in 2011. This was the
third year in a row that real labour compensation rose in
BC. Strong commodity prices and a surge of
construction, particularly in southwest BC and the
northeast, translated into higher paying jobs in the
construction, manufacturing, and transportation
industries. BC’s steady rise in labour force educational
attainment also contributed to growth in real labour
compensation in the goods and services sectors.
In 2011, Alberta saw the largest one-year increase in real
labour compensation per worker of all jurisdictions,
growing by 1.8%, to reach $67,220, the highest level in
Canada. Employment in the province’s red hot energy
sector was the driving force behind this trend. Alberta’s
gain also boosted the Canadian average real
compensation by 0.2%, to reach $51,397. Ontario bucked
the national trend with a 1.6% decline in real per capita
labour compensation.
Looking at five year averages, Alberta enjoyed a
remarkable 7.5% increase in real compensation between
2006 and 2011. This was reflected in the national average
gain of 3.2% over the same period; BC’s real
compensation rose by 2.3%. In Ontario, however, real
compensation declined slightly by 0.5%, reflecting the
loss of many highly-paid manufacturing jobs, especially
in the automotive sector.
8 Supplementaryincomeincludesemployercontributionstoemployeewelfare,pensions,workerscompensationandemploymentinsurance.9 Includesfullandparttimeworkers.
55%
58%
61%
64%
67%
70%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
BC 61.0% 61.7% 62.6% 63.0% 64.4% 65.9%
AB 60.7% 61.6% 62.3% 64.3% 64.1% 64.4%
ON 65.1% 66.5% 67.4% 68.0% 68.5% 69.7%
CAN 63.9% 64.9% 65.6% 66.4% 67.3% 68.2%
$38,000
$43,000
$48,000
$53,000
$58,000
$63,000
$68,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
BC 47,161 46,971 46,903 47,068 47,468 48,244
AB 62,533 63,386 64,434 63,098 66,048 67,220
ON 52,131 52,547 52,020 52,821 52,688 51,866
CAN 49,785 50,222 50,340 50,786 51,312 51,397
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey
Source: Statistics Canada
Percent of Labour Force Age 25-54 With
a Post-Secondary Certificate/Diploma or Higher
Real Labour Income per Employee (2010$)
Summary of INVEST Key Indicators BC AB ON CAN
Productivity 36.4 46.0 38.3 38.9
Employment in the Sciences 6.5% 8.3% 7.9% 7.4%
Value of Exports per Worker $13,312 $41,924 $21,295 $22,415
Government Net Debt as a % of GDP 16.4% -5.4% 37.2% 33.9%
Productivity 3.7% 0.2% -0.5% 1.3%
Employment in the Sciences -0.1 ppt 0.5 ppt 0.0 ppt 0.0 ppt
Value of Exports per Worker 13.2% 15.0% 5.5% 11.0%
Government Net Debt as a % of GDP 1.2 ppt 1.4 ppt 2.2 0.0
Productivity 3.4% -0.6% -1.0% 2.4%
Employment in the Sciences -0.4 ppt 0.8 ppt 0.76% 0.5%
Value of Exports per Worker -10.3% 7.0% -17.4% -4.6%
Government Net Debt as a % of GDP 4.7 ppt 6.8 ppt 10.4 ppt 4.0 ppt
invest
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Notes:
Anincreaseinthevalueoftheseindicators(exceptforgovernmentnetdebtasa%ofGDPwhereadecrease
indicatesimprovement)meansanimprovementinthequalityoftheprovince’sINVESTenvironment.
ppt=percentagepointchange
BC’sinvestmentclimatesawsignificantimprovementin2011,asthreeoutoffourindicatorshadpositiveresults.
BCrecordedthehighestproductivitygrowth(3.7%)ofallcomparisonjurisdictionsandrankedsecondtoAlbertafor
growthinvalueofexportsperworker(13.2%vs.15.0%respectively).BC’sgovernmentnetdebttoGDPratiowasthe
secondlowestincreaseinthecomparison.Howevertheprovinceexperiencedadeclineinemploymentinthesciences.
Whileprogresswasmadelastyear,BChadalargegaptocloseandrankedlastinthecomparisoninthreeoffour
indicators—theexceptionbeinggovernmentnetdebttoGDPratio—whereBC’swassignificantlybelowbothOntario
andthenationalaverage.ThetablebelowshowshowBCcomparedwithAlberta,Ontario,andthenationalaverage
onourfourkeyindicatorsoveroneandfive-yearperiods.
Productivity
Real labour productivity, or the amount of real GDP per
hour worked, measures the efficiency of the workforce.10
When more output is being produced with an existing
amount of labour and capital, this is a productivity gain,
which positively impacts the investment climate.
BC’s real labour productivity rose by 3.7% in 2011, the
highest rate of all comparison jurisdictions, and five-year
gains were also the highest, as BC’s labour productivity
rose by 3.4% between 2006 and 2011, compared to 2.4%
across Canada, -1.0% in Alberta, and -0.6% in Ontario.
A recent Statistics Canada assessment of provincial
labour productivity trends shows that the biggest
contributor to labour productivity gains in both BC and
Alberta between 1997 and 2010 was capital intensity -
investment in physical structures, machinery, and
equipment.11 However Alberta’s labour productivity has
been slowed by “multifactor productivity” (eg. the
change in extraction techniques to non-conventional oil
sources, such as oil sands).12
Statistics Canada’s Preliminary Intentions indicate that
between 2010 and 2011, the greatest absolute growth in
BC’s machinery and equipment occurred in mining, oil
and gas extraction, wholesale trade, and transportation
and warehousing.13 There were also notable investment
increases in finance and insurance, the public sector, and
manufacturing.14 These investments are likely to stimulate
future productivity gains in BC, both overall and in these
specific sectors.
Employment in the Sciences
The proportion of all workers employed in the natural and
applied sciences reflects the demand for, and supply of
jobs with high technical requirements. An increase in this
indicator means that more scientific and technical
workers are finding jobs in their fields of expertise.15 In
absolute terms, BC had the lowest proportion of workers
in the sciences of all comparison jurisdictions in 2011.
Approximately 6.5% of BC’s workers were employed in
the sciences, compared to the national average of 7.4%,
Ontario at 7.9%, and Alberta at 8.3%. In 2011, the science
share of employment declined by .4 percentage point.
Growth in this indicator has stalled in BC since 2006,
while it has risen in the other jurisdictions. This is
reflective of a slower build-up of science and
technological industries in BC. It may also help explain
BC’s loss of workers with a degree higher than a
bachelor’s, as discussed earlier in Educational
Attainment. However, this is not to say that these jobs are
not being created. In 2011, BC saw 7,800 new jobs (an
increase of 4.5%) in professional, scientific and technical
services, although this growth was smaller than the gains
reported in both Alberta and Ontario.
15
10 Ideally,aproductivitymeasureshouldaccountforbothlabourandcapitalinputsusedinproduction,butthisisdifficult,andlabourproductivityisgenerallyusedasaproxymeasurefortotal
changeinproductivity.11 StatisticsCanada,The Daily,March12,2012,Factors in the Growth of Labour Productivity in the Provinces.12 Multifactorproductivityreferstoincreasesresultingfromtechnologicalinnovationandorganizationalchangesinfirms.13 StatisticsCanada,2012,Private and Public Investment in Canada, Intentions.14 Ibid.15 Naturalandappliedsciencesincludeprofessionaloccupationsinphysicalandlifesciences,engineering,architecture,planning,andarangeofrelatedtechnicaloccupations.
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
BC 35.2 34.6 34.4 34.7 35.1 36.4
AB 46.3 45.2 44.8 44.6 45.9 46.0
ON 38.7 38.7 38.1 38.1 38.5 38.3
CAN 38.0 38.0 37.8 37.7 38.4 38.9
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
BC 6.9% 6.4% 6.6% 6.0% 6.6% 6.5%
AB 7.5% 7.9% 7.7% 8.2% 7.8% 8.3%
ON 7.2% 7.3% 7.5% 7.4% 7.9% 7.9%
CAN 6.9% 7.0% 7.0% 7.1% 7.4% 7.4%
Source: Statistics Canada Source: Statistics Canada
Real Labour Productivity High Tech Employment Share
Exports per Worker
The exports per worker indicator is defined as the
nominal value of provincial international exports, divided
by the number of persons in the labour force. This
indicator allows for a more in-depth economic
comparison between provinces. An increase in the value
of exports per worker indicates an economic
improvement.
The export of goods and services to other provinces and
international markets constituted over 42% of BC’s GDP
in 2010.16,17 Our province’s total international exports of
goods were valued at $32.75 billion in 2011, almost on a
par with pre-recession levels. Given the importance of
trade to our provincial industries, and the variability of
market conditions, there is little question that BC’s
economy is vulnerable to developments and market
prices around the globe.18
In 2011, BC exported $13,312 of goods per worker. This
was a 13.2% increase over 2010, and marked a second
consecutive year of solid growth that saw the value of
BC’s exports reach their early 2000s level.
All jurisdictions saw this indicator rise in 2011, as demand
for Canadian resources and products grew in both
traditional and new markets. The value of Alberta’s crude
petroleum and petroleum products largely accounts for
its high level of exports per worker, which rose by 15%, to
reach $41,924. BC’s exports per worker growth rate
ranked second, while Ontario’s rose by 5.5%, to reach
$21,295. On average, in Canada, the value of exports per
worker rose 11%, to reach $22,415.
There are a number of reasons that account for the low
value of BC’s exports per worker in comparison to other
jurisdictions: first, the export of services and inter-
provincial shipments are significant in BC, but not
captured in the Customs Canada export data which
focuses entirely on goods. Second, the national average
is bolstered up by the export values of those provinces
that export petroleum and petroleum products – Alberta,
Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland and Labrador. Thirdly,
our product profile may also be lower value-added.
In 2011, BC’s greatest gains in exports took place in the
Asia Pacific market, with China and South Korea
recording the most dramatic demand increases, for
natural resource exports in particular. Together, these two
countries accounted for 23.5% of all of BC’s international
exports in 2011, compared to 8.5% in 2006. Volumes to
the US market were slightly up from 2010, but the US
share of BC exports has declined from 61% in 2006 to
43% in 2011.
16
16 Source:BCStats,July2012,BC GDP at Market Prices and Final Domestic Demand 1981-2010.FromStatisticsCanada,13-212-PIB.17 ExportsarecalculatedbyBCStatsonaBalanceofPaymentbasisandwillnotmatchinternationaltradedatafromothersources,whichisonacustomsbasis.18 Ouranalysisofexportsfocusesonthevalueofphysicalmovementoftangiblegoods,calculatedwithCustomsCanadadata.Customsdatadoesnotcapturetradeinservicesorinterprovincial
trade.
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
BC $14,843 $13,579 $13,939 $10,505 $11,758 $13,312
AB $39,170 $39,513 $51,743 $32,227 $36,459 $41,924
ON $25,780 $25,293 $22,944 $17,573 $20,183 $21,295
CAN $23,491 $23,481 $25,013 $18,247 $20,196 $22,415
Source: BC Stats and Stats Can LFS
Domestic Exports per Worker (Current $)(Worker=labourforce,bothemployedandunemployed)
17
Government Debt as Percentage of GDP
Chronic growth in government debt exerts a burden on
taxpayers, ultimately affecting a province’s credit rating,
and deterring future investors. A decrease in this
indicator is regarded as an improvement in the
investment climate.
The fiscal year 2011/2012 was the BC Provincial
Government’s third consecutive year of budget deficit,
recording a total shortfall of $2.5 billion. Part of the
increase in the budget deficit was due to a refund to the
federal government of the $1.6 billion HST transitional
tax, after voters eliminated the HST in August 2011. BC’s
government debt grew to $34.79 billion in 2011/2012, and
its debt/GDP ratio rose to 16.4% from 15.2% in the
previous year, a 1.2 ppt increase.19
By law, the government is allowed to run one more year
of deficit, and projections are for a 2012/2013 deficit of
$968 million.20 The provincial government will use a
combination of increased revenues and reduced costs to
achieve a balanced budget in 2013/2014, including
retaining a small business tax rate of 2.5%, and freezing
wages in the public sector, among other measures.
Global financial uncertainty and the prospect of rising
interest rates, however, could make it a challenge to
achieve this goal.
In this year of booming resource revenues, BC, Alberta,
and Saskatchewan are enjoying the lowest government
debt/GDP ratios in Canada. In 2011/2012, Alberta’s ratio
was -5.4%, while Saskatchewan’s was 5%. The Canadian
average government debt/GDP ratio was 33.9%, no
change from the previous year.
BC’s provincial taxpayer-supported debt is forecast to
rise from $34.79 billion in 2011/2012 to $43.7 billion in
2014/2015. The ratio of government debt/GDP will
move in tandem, reaching 18.3% in the latter fiscal year.
19 Source:RoyalBankEconomics,July2012,Provincial Fiscal Tables.Theratiofor2011/2012isapreliminaryestimate.20 Ibid.
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12p
BC 12.7% 11.7% 12.5% 14.7% 15.2% 16.4%
AB -12.7% -12.2% -9.2% -9.6% -6.8% -5.4%
ON 27.4% 26.8% 28.9% 33.3% 35.0% 37.2%
CAN 32.2% 29.9% 28.9% 34.0% 33.9% 33.9%
Source: Royal Bank Economics
Government Net Debt to GDP Ratio
Summary of LIVE Key Indicators BC AB ON CAN
Consumer Debt per Capita $53,130 $48,442 $43,742 $43,806
Youth at Risk 6.2% 11.5% 8.5% 9.5%
Provincial Gov’t Health Expenditures per Capita $3,589 $4,462 $3,617 $3,766
Consumer Debt per Capita 29.6% 38.6% 40.4% 33.4%
Youth at Risk -1.9 ppt -0.1 ppt 0.2 ppt -0.3 ppt
Provincial Gov’t Health Expenditures per Capita 0.8% -3.1% -1.2% 0.5%
Consumer Debt per Capita 66.8% 93.4% 70.1% 72.0%
Youth at Risk -3.2 ppt -1.0 ppt -2.5 ppt -2.4 ppt
Provincial Gov’t Health Expenditures per Capita 19.6% 33.8% 22.0% 25.4%
live
20
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18
Adecreaseinthevalueofconsumerdebtoryouthatriskmeansanimprovementinthequalityofthe
province’sLIVEenvironment.
ppt=percentagepointchange
In2011,BCagainreceivedthesecondhighestratingontheHealthConsumerIndex,whichrankshealthcaredelivery
ineveryprovince,andhealthcareexpenditurespercapitarose0.8%—thelargestincreaseamongthecomparison
jurisdictions.Thenumberoftheprovince’syouthatriskdeclinedby1.9ppt.
WhileBC’sincreaseinconsumerdebtwasthelowestinthecomparison,inrealtermsitwasstillthehighestat
$53,130.ThetablebelowshowshowBCcomparedonourthreekeyindicatorswithAlberta,Ontario,andthe
nationalaverageoveroneandfive-yearperiods.
19
21 Thisiscreditcarddebt,mortgages,personalloansandotherdebtheldatCanadiancharteredbanksandcreditunions,whichaccountsforapproximately75%ofconsumerdebt.22 StatisticsCanada,Catalogue13-018-X,Table18.23 TDBankEconomics,SpecialReport,February2011.Assessing the Financial Vulnerability of Households Across Canadian Regions.
Consumer Debt
Consumers use debt to finance the purchase of their
home, pay for education, and buy goods and services. In
the past decade, the level of consumer debt in Canada
and BC has more than doubled, with mortgage and
credit card debt growing at unprecedented rates. In
BC, average consumer debt per capita rose by 29.6%
between 2010 and 2011, reaching $53,130.21 This was the
highest one-year growth rate in the past decade, and BC
continues to have the highest level of debt per capita in
Canada.
BC’s housing prices are the key driving force behind the
growth in consumer debt. Mortgage debt accounted for
almost 75% of all debt held at chartered banks and credit
unions in BC. In 2011, it was the fastest growing debt in
all Canadian jurisdictions. Mortgages held at chartered
banks in BC rose by 52%; between 2006 and 2011 the
value of mortgage debt rose by a remarkable 90%.
However, as of July 2012, BC’s housing market has begun
to soften. Moreover, the Canadian government has
recently introduced new regulations on lending
conditions - such as reducing the amortization period
to 25 years - to curb excessive mortgage debt.
Credit card debt held at chartered banks is the second-
fastest growing component of personal debt across
Canada. Between 2006 and 2011, credit card debt in
BC grew by almost 95%; in one year alone, (2010-2011),
it increased by 27.7%. This component is driven by
consumer spending, rather than the housing market.
Given BC’s negative savings rate (-3.3% in 2010)22 and
high debt/income ratio (160.5 in 2010)23, many
households in this province are financially vulnerable to
the fluctuations of both the domestic and global
economies.
Compared with the other jurisdictions, Ontario saw
the fastest rise in consumer debt per capita in 2011,
increasing by 40.4%. Alberta ranked second highest at
38.6%, and the national average increase was 33.4%. In
all cases, mortgages accounted for the largest share of
debt, with credit card debt not far behind. There is little
question that financial vulnerability related to excessive
borrowing is a concern across the country, especially for
those who are not equipped to cope with a rising interest
rate, or a sudden change in economic circumstances.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
BC 9.8% 11.7% 6.2% 9.0% 6.2% 30.9%
AB 17.0% 21.6% 7.0% 9.4% 6.6% 40.8%
ON 6.1% 10.0% 1.2% 4.9% 8.2% 42.0%
CAN 7.9% 9.3% 7.8% 6.8% 7.3% 34.7%
Sources: Statistics Canada; Credit Union Central of BC, Alberta and Manitoba;
Insurance Deposit Corporation of Ontario; and SaskCentral
Growth in Total Consumer Debt
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
BC $31,858 $35,042 $36,599 $39,210 $40,988 $53,130
AB $25,053 $29,662 $31,048 $33,219 $34,939 $48,442
ON $25,713 $28,014 $28,054 $29,119 $31,145 $43,742
CAN $25,471 $27,543 $29,357 $30,962 $32,850 $43,806
Sources: Statistics Canada; Credit Union Central of BC, Alberta and Manitoba;
Insurance Deposit Corporation of Ontario; and SaskCentral
Total Consumer Debt per Capita
20
Youth at Risk
The share of the workforce aged 19 to 24, which has not
completed high school, reflects the portion of the youth
population with limited long term employment and
earning prospects. Historical records indicate that high
school drop-outs are more likely to require a form of
economic or social support in their lifetime. BC has done
well in this indicator for the past decade, with the lowest
percentage of youth at risk out of all comparison
jurisdictions. In 2011, this indicator declined in BC by
1.9 ppt, to reach 6.2%, the lowest ever level.
Labour force statistics show that among BC workers,
aged 19-24 and active in the labour force, the number
who possess only high school education or less has
decreased in the past five years.24 During this time, the
fastest growing demographic was young labour force
participants with either some post-secondary education
or a post-secondary certificate or diploma. However, the
number of young workers with a university degree has
changed little, and actually registered a decline in 2011.
The surge in workers with post-secondary credentials
reflects a growing understanding among BC’s youth that
post-secondary school is an essential preparation for the
workforce. It is also undoubtedly influenced by recent,
significant job creation in both the construction trades,
and the mining and oil and gas extraction industries.
In 2011, Ontario saw its youth at risk indicator rise 0.2 ppt,
to reach 8.5%, while Alberta’s declined slightly to 11.5%.
There was a decrease in the national average, from 9.8%
to 9.5%. Overall, all comparison jurisdictions have
witnessed a steady decline in the youth at risk indicator
over the past five years. Between 2006 and 2011, BC saw
this indicator decline by 3.2 ppt, and Ontario, Alberta,
and the national average all registered declines of 2.5
ppt, 1ppt, and 2.4 ppt respectively.
Health Expenditures Per Capita
Government expenditures on health care per capita is
used as an aggregate measure of health care investment.
From the perspective of the health consumer, an increase
in this indicator may be viewed as a positive, albeit
superficial, change, as it tells us little about health care
delivery at the patient level. It is therefore important to
supplement this indicator with the Canadian Consumer
Health Index, which evaluates provincial health care
delivery based on patient outcomes, waiting times for
treatment, primary care, patient rights, and range of
services.25
In 2011, BC’s Provincial Government health care
expenditures per capita grew by 0.8%, to reach $3,589
per person.26 Ontario’s expenditures declined by 1.2%, yet
still reached $3,617, while in Alberta, expenditures
declined by 3.1%, to reach $4,462. It is interesting to note,
that while Alberta spends the most per capita, in terms
of a percentage of GDP it spends 8.6%, whereas BC
spends 11.6% and Ontario 11.9%.27
24 StatisticsCanada,2012,Labour Force Survey.25 ThiswasdevelopedbytheFrontierCentreforPublicPolicyandHealthConsumerPowerhouse.ThemethodologyhasbeendevelopedandusedbytheHealthConsumerPowerhouse,Europe’s
leadingindependentproviderofconsumerinformation,whoseworkhasinitiatedimprovementinhealthcaresystemsinEurope.26 CanadaInstituteforHealthInformation,DataTables,2010,https://secure.cihi.ca/estore/productFamily.htm?pf=PFC1556&lang=en&media=0.27 Ibid.Table5.
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
13.0%
14.0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
BC 9.4% 9.1% 8.0% 7.3% 8.1% 6.2%
AB 12.5% 12.4% 12.4% 10.3% 11.6% 11.5%
ON 11.0% 9.8% 9.8% 8.5% 8.3% 8.5%
CAN 11.9% 11.2% 10.9% 10.0% 9.8% 9.5%
Sources: Statistics Canada, LFS, Custom Table
Percent of Labour Force Between Ages of 19
and 24 With Less Than High School Education
21
Across Canada, compensation of health care providers,
greater use of services, and a growing choice in the types
of services provided and used (e.g., diagnostics) were the
key drivers of public-sector health care spending during
the past decade.28 These factors, combined with an aging
population, all exert pressure on government to boost
health care spending.
The Canadian Consumer Health Index evaluates
provincial health care delivery based on outcomes,
waiting time for treatment, primary care, patient rights,
and range of services.29 BC and New Brunswick were tied
for second place in 2011, with Ontario ranking first. BC’s
health system stood out particularly in patient access to
information, information technology, and duration of
waiting times, and it outperformed most provinces in
terms of consumer accessibility and friendliness.
28 CanadianInstituteforHealthInformation,November 2011, National Health Expenditure Trends, 1975 to 2011.29 ThemethodologyhasbeendevelopedandusedbytheHealthConsumerPowerhouse,Europe’sleadingindependentproviderofconsumerinformation,whoseworkhasinitiatedimprovementin
healthcaresystemsinEurope.30 Eisen,Ben,2011, Canada Health Consumer Index,PresentedbyFrontierCentreforPublicPolicyandHealthConsumerPowerhouse.31 Rankingacrossallprovinces;territoriesareexcluded.
Health Consumer Index National Ranking in 201130
BC AB SK MB ON QC NB NS PE. NL
2 5 9 4 1 8 2 10 7 6
Source: Canadian Consumer Health Index 2011
HealthConsumerIndexNationalRanking31
tied tied
$2,900
$3,150
$3,400
$3,650
$3,900
$4,150
$4,400
$4,650
06–07 07–08 08–09 09–10 10–11 f 11–12 f
BC 2,999 3,146 3,388 3,394 3,561 3,589
AB 3,335 3,587 3,929 3,991 4,603 4,462
ON 2,965 3,176 3,350 3,534 3,662 3,617
CAN 3,004 3,192 3,408 3,561 3,747 3,766
Source: CIHI
Provincial Gov’t Health Expenditure per Capita
(Current $)
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Staff
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