2015-2016 1st Interim Report
December 8, 2015
Anna PimentelDirector, Fiscal Services
Jamie MetcalfAssistant Director, Fiscal Services
Ken ForrestChief Business Officer
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2015-2016 1st InterimBackground
2
2015-2016 1st InterimBackground
3
We are pleased to report
that our analysis of
current information and
our estimates for future
revenues allow us to
report that we are in a
Positive Status.
Fiscal Discussion
Follows.
History
2006-2007 Positive
2007-2008 Qualified
2008-2009 Qualified
2009-2010 Negative
2010-2011 Negative
2011-2012 Negative
2012-2013 Qualified
2013-2014 Positive
2014-2015 Positive
2015-2016 Positive
2015-2016 1st InterimState Outlook
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The Legislative
Analyst Office
(LAO) recently
prepared a Fiscal
Outlook report.
The following
slides provide
some interesting
insights.
2015-2016 1st InterimState Outlook
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2015-2016 1st InterimState Outlook
6
The LAO report also provides three different
scenarios.
The primary
scenario shows
the State
continuing to build
additional
reserves.
2015-2016 1st InterimState Outlook
7
Scenarios show what might happen should
the economy suffer a downturn.
2015-2016 1st InterimState Outlook
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Based on this positive State
revenue prediction and the
scenarios indicating that even
should there be a downturn in
the economy the State has
adequate reserves we are
confident in forecasting our
Positive Status.
2015-2016 1st InterimState Outlook
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• Despite this positive outlook California continues to
significantly UNDERFUND K-12 education. The
information on the following slide points out just
how far behind the rest of the nation we are.
• Under the new State funding formula remember
that Travis Unified is one of the lowest funded
districts in the State. This Interim Report projects
the District will spend $53,661,169 this year with an
ADA of 5,251.13 or $10,218.96 per pupil.
• The next slide provides a comparison of how Travis
relates to State and Federal averages .
2015-2016 1st InterimHow Does Our State Compare?
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2015-2016 1st InterimHow Does Travis Compare?
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• Travis in this fiscal year is forecasted to
spend $10,219 per ADA. To attain the robust
funding shown above we would need an
increase of $2,476 per ADA or $13 million, or
approximately 24%.
• San Diego Unified has done a lot of work on
what adequate funding would look like.
2015-2016 1st InterimHow Does Travis Compare?
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• As per our calculations the District’s increase
in funding was approximately 12.22%.
• Therefore since the previous slides
compared FY 2014-15 data to our FY 2015-16
data to show the real gap this must be taken
into account.
• The next slide illustrates how far behind we
are.
2015-2016 1st InterimHow Does Travis Compare?
13
As per this
chart Travis
would need
$6+ million
more to reach
State Average
funding.
$13+ million
more for
“Robust”
funding.
$17.2+ million
more to reach
the US
average.
2014-15
California
Average
Using Our
Funding
Increase Of
12.22% To
Approximate
2015-16
California
Average
2014-15 San
Diego
"RoBust"
Funding
Using Our
Funding
Increase Of
12.22% To
Approximate
2015-16 San
Diego
"Robust"
Funding
2014-15 US
Average
Using Our
Funding
Increase Of
12.22% To
Approximate
2015-16
US Average
10,139$ 11,378$ 11,313$ 12,695$ 12,040$ 13,511$
Travis 2015-16
1st Interim
Projection
10,219$ 10,219$ 10,219$
Amount Below
Average or
RoBust
Funding
1,159$ 2,476$ 3,292$
Projected
Travis 2015-16
ADA
5,251$ 5,251$ 5,251$
Travis
Scenario
Shortfall
6,085,997$ 13,004,178$ 17,288,265$
Funding Shortfall Using Expenditure Per ADA Analysis
2015-2016 1st InterimState Funding Summary
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• We believe that the State will continue to
fund K-12 education under the new LCFF
formula.
• Under this formula Travis Unified will
continue to be on the LOW END of funding as
per the previous slide.
• While this funding is not adequate in relation
to our needs we are predicting that revenue
will be sufficient to support our
determination of a Positive Status on our 1st
Interim.
2015-2016 1st InterimGeneral Fund Brief Update
15
• Enrollment and Average Daily Attendance
have fallen behind our previous predictions.
• Our 1st Interim shows this with a reduction
60.65 ADA resulting in a revenue forecast
reduction of -$418,512.
• Federal funding associated with the
Department of Defense continues to decline
and has been reduced on this report by
-$283,662.
2015-2016 1st InterimGeneral Fund Brief Update
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• Total revenue changes, both positive and
negative have increased the Board Approved
Adopted Revenue Budget to $53,776,883 an
increase of $1,680,366.
• Total expenditure changes, both positive and
negative have increased the Board Approved
Adopted Expenditure Budget to $53,661,169
an increase of $1,327,083.
• This has a net impact of reducing forecasted
deficit spending. A reminder it is early in the
fiscal year and numbers will change!
2015-2016 1st InterimGeneral Fund Brief Update
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2015-2016 1st InterimGeneral Fund Brief Update
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2015-2016 1st InterimGeneral Fund Brief Update
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2015-2016 1st InterimGeneral Fund Brief Update
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2015-2016 1st InterimGeneral Fund Brief Update
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2015-2016 1st InterimGeneral Fund Brief Update
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Pro
jecte
d C
urr
en
t Y
ear
We will be actively working to update our ADA projections due to the importance to our funding and this unexpected reduction.
2015-2016 1st InterimOther Funds / What Is Next?
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• There have been no significant changes to
other funds to this point in the fiscal year.
• The staff will be attending a Governor’s
Budget Workshop on January 13, 2016.
After this workshop the staff will prepare a
report to the Board and the Community
that updates the District’s fiscal status and
provides an update on enrollment and a
comprehensive multi-year forecast.
• The entire 1st Interim Report is posted on the
District web site.
Questions?
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