2015:A national election
• Nothing is certain• Every 1% counts
• Does Tory vote matter?• And the election just got more confused
Rob Hayward
19th January 2015
With thanks to…
What’s up?
• General
• Locals
• Most of England outside London• No Wales nor Scotland nor NI
• Mets 36• Unitaries 49• Districts 194• Mayors 5
Timetable
• Dec 19th Election expenses commenced• Mar 13th-University vacationsApr 13th • Mar 30th Parliament dissolved• Apr 3rd-6th Easter• Apr 9th Election nominations close• Apr 20th Final electoral registration • Apr 22nd?Postal votes sent out?• May 7th Polling Day
Declarations: Sunderland, Scotland, Wales, NI
Total votes?
• Winter NHS
Council Cuts• March 18th Budget Day• Debates?• Apr 14th Inflation• Apr 17th Employment• Apr 23rd PSBR• Apr 28th Q1 GDP est.
Process Campaign
Individual Electoral Registration
• ONS publish late-February• Down by 1-2%
Turnout (UK)
Feb-74
Oct-74
Jun-05 Jun-05 Jun-05 Jun-05 Jun-05 Jun-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Jul-0550%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
78.8%
72.8%
76.0%
72.7%
75.3% 77.7%
71.3%
59.4%61.4%
65.1%
65%?
Inside the House
Con
Lab
LD
DUP
SNP
SF
SDLP
PC
All
SH
Grn
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
306
258
57
8
6
5
3
3
1
1
1
UKIP 2Respect 1
Result 2010 by percentage - UK
Con Lab LD UKIP Green0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
36%
29%
23%
3%1%
2010 Vote Share
-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6
3.7
-6.2
1.0
0.9
-0.2
Change from 2005(GB: 37%)
Retiring MPs/Candidates (UK)
Retiring MPs• Con 1:9• Lab 1:9• LD 1:5
Candidates• In 2010:
- 4150 candidates in total - 572 UKIP- 310 Green
GB Polling post 2010 (1)
May '1
0
Aug '1
0
Oct '1
0
Dec '1
0
Feb
'11
Apr '1
1
Jun
'11
Aug '1
1
Oct '1
1
Dec '1
1
Feb
'12
Apr '1
2
Jun
'12
Aug '1
2
Oct '1
2
Dec '1
2
Feb
'13
Apr '1
3
Jun
'13
Aug '1
3
Oct '1
3
Dec '1
3
Feb
'14
Apr '1
4
June
'14
Augus
t '14
Octob
er 2
014
Decem
ber 2
014
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
3133
9.5
17
Polling post 2010 (2)
Proportion top 2 / leading party - UK
Feb-74 Oct-74 Jun-05 Jun-05 Jun-05 Jun-05 Jun-05 Jun-05 Jun-05 Jul-0520%
40%
60%
80%75.1%
75.0%
80.8%
70.0%73.0%
76.3%73.9%
72.4%
67.6%65.1%
37.2%39.2%
43.9%
42.4% 42.2% 41.9%
43.2%
40.7%
35.2%36.1%
Con/Lab share Winning party share
Voters: ‘Moved house’ or ‘On Holiday’? (May-Oct 14)
‘Moved house’ or ‘On Holiday’? (2)
ComRes, 14th-16th January 2014
63%
64%46%
56%Definitely decided how I will vote in the General Election
‘Moved house’ or ‘On Holiday’? (3)
• Will others go?
• Have Tories learnt to squeeze?
• Labour and WWC
• Where it matters
Campaign overstretch or confusion
• 2010 Con/Lab or Con/LD. Very little 4th party distraction.
• 2015• 100 Lab (106 or 68) + Scotland?• 80+ Con• 50+ LD• 20+ UKIP• 10 Grn• 25/30+ SNP
LocalsBradford
Changing the terrain
• Uniform National Swing? Not even in England
• 7-8 seats change hands (Con and Lab) per 1% party shift on UNS
• ‘Regional’ variation Definitely
Target seats
Labour largest party Labour majority Conservative majority
19. Brighton Pavilion 64. Vale of Glamorgan 17. Sutton & Cheam
20. Plymouth Sutton 65. Argyll & Bute 18. Halifax
21. Dewsbury 66. Dumfriesshire 19. Newcastle-under-Lyme
22. Warrington S 67. Carmarthen E 20. Middlesbrough S
23. Brent Central 68. Norwich N 21. Wakefield
24. Bedford (1,353; 3%) 69. High Peak (4,677; 9.3%) 22. St Ives (1,719; 3.7%)
25. Brighton Kempton 70. Milton Keynes S 23. Plymouth Moor View
26. Pudsey 71. Rossendale 24. Gedling
27. Corby 72. Cleethorpes 25. Eltham
28. Brentford & Isleworth 73. NE Somerset 26. Walsall S
29. Hove 74. Great Yarmouth 27. Nottingham S
Target seats (North)
North East:Stockton S
Middlesbrough S
Yorks & Humberside:Bradford EDewsburyPudseyKeighleyElmet & Rothwell
G Grimsby +Morley & OutwoodHalifaxWakefield
North West:Lancaster & Fleetwood
Morecombe & LunesdaleCarlisle
Weaver ValeWarrington S
Manchester WithingtonBurnleyBury N
Blackpool NWirral W
Pendle
Bolton WWirral S
Key:Lab target for largest party
Labour target for majCon target for maj
Target seats (Midlands)
East Mids:SherwoodBroxtoweAmber ValleyLincolnCorby*Northampton NErewashLoughboroughHigh Peak
Derby N
Boston & Skegness
West Mids:N Warwickshire
Wolverhampton SWHalesowen & Rowley Regis
NuneatonWorcester
Cannock ChaseWarwick & Leamington
Birmingham Yardley
SolihullDudley N +
TelfordWalsall N
Birmingham EdgbastonNewcastle Under Lyme
Target seats (South)
South EastBrighton Pavilion
Brighton KemptownHove
Hastings & Rye
Southampton Itchen
Thanet SThanet N
SittingbourneWorthing EAylesburyEastleigh +
Portsmouth S +
South West:Stroud
Plymouth SuttonGloucesterKingswoodSwindon S
Mid Dorset & N PooleWells
St Austell & NewquaySomerton & Frome
St Ives
Forest of Dean
Target seats (South)
EasternThurrock+Norwich SWaveneyBedfordIpswichStevenageWatfordNorwich N
Great Yarmouth +
LondonHendonBrent C
Brentford & IsleworthEnfield N
Croydon CHarrow EEaling C
Hampstead & KilburnSutton & Cheam
Target seats (Nations)
WalesCardiff N
ArfonCarmarthen W & S Pembs
Vale of GlamorganCarmarthen E & Dinefwr
Scotland:Dundee EastE DumbartonEdinburgh WArgyll & ButeDumfriesshire
Scotland (1)
• LD overpolled in 2005• Lab overpolled in 2010
Seats Vote % Change in vote %
Lab 41 42% +2.5
LD 11 19% -3.7
SNP 6 20% +2.3
Con 1 17% +0.9
Scotland (2)
Post-referendum local by-elections (mostly rural): party vote share changes v 2012
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
10.1
-6.2
6.4
-10.8
37.2
-5.3
6.53.2 1.9
-0.7
-32.5
-3.3-5.2
-0.9 -2.8
10.3
-14.9
SNP Lab Con
*
+
-
* - did not stand in 2012
Lib Dems
• 57 seats
• Scotland 11 seats• South West 15 seats• (University) 12 seats* (approx assessment. NB overlap with
categories above)
• Will lose virtually half of Parliamentary Party
• First 18 split: 9 Lab, 9 Tory• Thereafter (8): mostly SNP and Tory
‘Minor’ Party Impact
• 100 seats UKIP vote markedly bigger than majority (12.5%, 5,500-6,500 votes)
• 25 seats Green vote markedly bigger than majority(5%, 2,000-3,000 votes)
Polls & Results (1)within margin of error but….?
2014 Euro (6 polls)Actual Con Lab LD UKIP Grn
24 25 7 27 8
Correct 0 1 3 1 0
Understate -1% 1 0 1 0 0- more % 4 0 0 1 5
Overstate +1% 0 1 0 0 0+ more% 1 4 2 4 1
Average ‘miss’ -2.2% +2% +0.5% +3% -1.7%
Polls & Results (2)
2014 By-elections (5 seats 10 polls)Con Lab LD UKIP Green
Correct 0 1 3 0 1*
Understate -1% 2 1 1 0 2* - more % 6 0 0 4 -*
Overstate +1% 1 0 4 1 1* + more% 1 8 2 5 -*
Average ‘miss’ -1.8% +3.7% +0.8% -1.1% -1.5%
Results & polls (3)
2014 local elections - Rallings & Thrasher National Equivalent Vote
Actual Con Lab LD UKIP30 31 11 18
Polls+ 32 36 8 15+2 +5 -3 -3
All ‘actuals’ are rounded*represents inadequate data, figure in red is presumed calculation+ Figures for 2014 locals polls are based on Wikipedia‘Average ‘miss’ is arrived at by taking ‘actual ‘miss’, totalling the misses, and then dividing by number of samples
• Every 1% counts• (Turnout, IER, polls, incumbency, regions)
2015: THE SEQUEL?