Download - 2016 ACES energy conference
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2016 Political Economy
Impact On Energy
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A Local Story
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“This move is intended to address the challenges we continue to face in a rapidly changing HVAC industry,
with the continued migration of the HVAC industry to Mexico, including our suppliers
and competitors, and ongoing cost and pricing pressures driven, in part, by new regulatory
requirements”
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Main Topics Today
US & Intl Economic Situation
2016 Presidential Race
Future Growth
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What the Fed watches
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Q2 2016 GDP Estimate
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3yr Oil and Nat Gas
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US Dollar Index
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US 2yr Treasury Yield
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German 2yr BKO Yield
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Japan 2yr JGB Yield
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Chinese Stock Market
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How To Grow
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Big Problem
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Political Econ Growth Pts.
Free Trade=lower tariffs
Reg. Relief=reduced costs
Tax reform=capital formation w/incentives
Infrastructure=efficiency
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Trump PlanCut Corp Tax to 15%
Limit Pass Thru 15%
1x 10% Repat Tax
Ag TPP and NAFTAImpose tariffs on imported goods
Big Drop in InterestDeductibility
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100 Day Energy Plan
Save coal industry
Pass Keystone
Rescind Obama executive actions: Climate Action Plan
and the Waters of the U.S. rule
Lift moratorium on energy on federal lands
Cancel Paris Climate Agreement
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Trump plans help/hurt
Help: big tech & big pharma
Hurt: debt heavy balance sheets
Help: industrials & manufacturers
Hurt: free trade
Help: energy production
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CLINTON PLANNo Change 4 Corp or Pass Thru Taxes
New Tax Credits forProfit Sharing andApprenticeships
Restart BABs
No Free Trade
College Tuition Plan
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Big Change to Cap Gains
Tax Foundation
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Clinton’s new spending
$275B Infrastructure Plan
Fix Roads and Bridges
National Freight Inv. Program
$25B Infrastructure Bank
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Energy Plan
500mln solar panels by 2021
Implement Clean Power Plan
Clean energy challenge
Implement Paris agreements
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Clinton plans help/hurt
Help: ACA managed care, hospitals, Medicaid HMOs
Hurt: raises taxes on top earners/capital formation
Help: construction, enginering firms
Help: muni bonds
Hurt: energy production
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2016 Recap
Clinton: no big biz tax plans, large infrastructure plans,
build on current regulations,negative free trade,
renewable energy production,
Trump: tax cut plans,reduce regulations, full expensing,
hurt free trade, big energy
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Don’t Forget The Senate!
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1st Time Ever: Trump is ahead
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The 10yr Debt Time Bomb
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LT Growth Trend
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Your future challenge is now
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Your Tornado?
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Your Hero?
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Tiny, But Growing
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Energy Storage
Source: GTM Research Energy Storage Monitor 2014
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Future Hero?
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Final Thoughts…