Download - 3. [en]bocm fs mrt mri
MITSUBISHI RESEARCH INSTITUTE, INC.
Copyright (C) Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.
Overview of Feasibility Study for Bilateral Offset Credit Mechanism (BOCM) on MRT in Vietnam
- Promotion of Modal Shift from Road-based Transport to
Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) System -
August, 2012
Kick off Seminar on “Studies for Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction in
Transportation Sector of Vietnam under the Bilateral Offset Credit Mechanism”
23th August 2012, at Melia Hanoi, Hanoi, Viet Nam
2 2 Copyright (C) Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.
Contents 1. Introduction of Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc. (MRI)
2. Objectives of Feasibility Study on MRT in Vietnam
3. Overview of the result of our study in FY 2011
4. Overview of our study plan in FY 2012
3 3 Copyright (C) Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.
1. Introduction of Mitsubishi Research Institute (MRI)
4 Copyright (C) Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.
• Corporate Name
• Head Office
• Foundation
• Listing
• Researchers
• Sales
Main Features
• Leading think tank and consulting company
in Japan
• Member of Mitsubishi-group, but not
subsidiary of others
Profile
Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.
Tokyo, Japan
May 8, 1970
First Section of the Tokyo Stock
Exchange (Stock code:3636)
645 as of September 30, 2011
73.3 billion yen (FY2010/9)
(Consolidated)
Introduction of Mitsubishi Research Institute (1/2)
If you need more information, please see
http://www.mri.co.jp/E/index.html
5 Copyright (C) Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.
Introduction of Mitsubishi Research Institute (2/2)
Systems integration and
outsourcing services that effect
management change
Business strategy
Marketing science
Technology management
Patent utilization
Future oriented and a collaborative,
interdisciplinary approach for
policy making
Analytic approach to top
management decision-making
Data systems for top management
Financial risk management solutions
Banking and credit card systems
Payroll and personnel outsourcing
Global warming and energy challenges
Social security problems
Low birthrate and aging population
issues
Education and human resources
development
6 Copyright (C) Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.
MRI’s experiences on Climate Change Issues
Mitsubishi Research Institute Inc. (MRI) has 22 years’ experience on climate-related research.
MRI has been instrumental in the background analysis and formulation of key government policies on climate change, with contracts from mainly MOE and METI.
MRI has been consulting the electricity industries etc. on climate change policy.
MRI supported our clients to formulate PDDs for CDM, and developed 5 approved CDM methodologies as below.
No Sector Title
AM0009 Fugitive Recovery and utilization of gas from oil wells that would otherwise be flared or vented
AM0062 Energy Industries Energy efficiency improvements of a power plant through retrofitting turbines
AM0093 Waste handling and disposal
Avoidance of landfill gas emissions by passive aeration of landfills
AMS III-S Transport Introduction of low-emission vehicles/technologies to commercial vehicle fleets
AR-AM0008* Afforestation and reforestation
Afforestation or reforestation on degraded land for sustainable wood production
MRI has many experiences on Climate Change Issues and CDM.
Approved CDM methodologies developed by MRI
( * AR-AM0008 is now consolidated to AR-ACM0002)
7 Copyright (C) Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.
MRI’s experiences on BOCM
MRI has many experiences on BOCM’s F/S, some of F/S are on going in FY2012.
Sector Title of study
Transportation * Development of Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) Systems in Jakarta, Indonesia,
and Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh, Viet Nam GEC
Renewable Energy
* Renewable Energy Development Focusing on Geothermal Power Generation in Colombia
GEC
* Newly-constructed Geothermal Power Generation Project in Indonesia NEDO
* Geothermal Power Generation Project in the Great Rift Valley NEDO
Power Plant * Study for the Possibility of Application of Ultra Super Critical Steam Conditions
for Coal Fired Power Plant in Vietnam
NEDO
Newly-constructed CCGT Power Generation Project in the People’s Republic of
Bangladesh
NEDO
BFG Fired Gas Turbine Combined Cycle Power Plant Project in India and Turkey NEDO
Other CO2 Abatement through Utilisation of Blast Furnace Slags as Blending Material for Cement in Viet Nam
GEC
CCS * Feasibility Study for CO2 Capture and Storage (CCS) in Indonesia NEDO
REDD+ REDD+ and Bio-Fuel Production and Utilisation in Gorontalo Province, Indonesia GEC
MRI’s experiences on BOCM Feasibility Studies
With * : These studies are on going also in FY 2012.
Without * : These studies had been conducted in FY 2011.
8 8 Copyright (C) Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.
2. Objectives of Feasibility Study on MRT in Vietnam
• Credits from BOCM will be issued as the amount of CO2 emissions reduction, and it could be
an additional source of revenue.
• That additional revenue could be invested in the improvement of MRT that may contribute to
promote utilization of MRT and also can lead to increase CO2 emissions reduction.
• e.g. - Investment in the energy saving facilities of transportation system
- Investment in the maintenance of the station
- Investment in establishing a park-and-ride system
9 Copyright (C) Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.
Benefits of BOCM and benefits relative to CDM
Benefits of BOCM
Credits from BOCM will be an additional source of revenue. And BOCM could overcome CDM’s difficulties.
• The process of CDM takes a few years and constantly delay in schedule. On the other hand,
the process of BOCM could be much speeder than CDM.
• The methodology of CDM must be well generalized and applicable to many countries. On the
other hand, BOCM methodologies will be established under the situation of Vietnam that
enables setting default or fixed values.
• For MRT project, the monitoring cost would be reduced.
• e.g. Large-scale passengers’ surveys are required for CDM, but for BOCM simpler
methods would be available.
Benefits relative to CDM
10 Copyright (C) Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.
Objectives of feasibility study on MRT
To achieve objectives, we will …
• Conduct surveys in Vietnam to establish the method to set the default or fixed
values, which are used for calculation of GHG emissions reduction by modal
shift to MRT.
• Determine project boundary, especially whether access/egress traffic to MRT
should be included to boundary or not.
• Make spread sheets for calculating emissions reduction.
• Estimate the amount of emissions reduction achieved by each MRT line.
What to do
• To develop MRV methodology on MRT.
• To contribute as a case to further improve the institutional design of the BOCM,
while starting BOCM operation.
• To quantify anticipated amount of emissions reduction achieved by the project at
this time, applying the developed MRV methodologies
Objectives of F/S
11 Copyright (C) Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.
Concept of GHG emissions reduction by MRT
CO2 CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
Modal Shift
Reference Scenario Project Scenario
Difference
Emissions Reduction
Less CO2 emissions More CO2 emissions =
12
Our targets: MRT Line 1 and 2 in Hanoi
Copyright (C) Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.
Ha
no
i Urb
an
Tra
nsp
ort L
ine
1 & L
ine
2
Line #2
Line #1
13
Our target: MRT Line 1 in Ho Chi Minh City
Copyright (C) Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.
Ho
Ch
i Min
h C
ity U
rba
n T
ran
sp
ort L
ine
1
14 14 Copyright (C) Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.
3. Overview of the result of our study in FY 2011
15 Copyright (C) Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.
Overview of our study on MRT in FY 2011
Collecting related data
• We have checked availability of the existing data, which are used to calculate GHG emissions reduction.
Estimation of emissions reduction
Proposal for options on project boundary
• We have proposed 3 options on project boundary, which mean emission sources should be included to calculation.
Developed the framework of MRV methodology
• We considered the framework of MRV methodology, e.g. applicable conditions, reference scenario, and so on.
• We have estimated the amount of GHG emissions reduction for each MRT line by using developed methodology and collected data.
16 16 Copyright (C) Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.
Basic concept of project boundary There are 3 options of project boundary for calculation . • Option 1: A ・・・ MRT only • Option 2: A+B ・・・ + Access traffic from/to MRT stations • Option 3: A+B+C ・・・ + Traffic volume change on surrounding roads
(A) MRT
Trip by MRT passengers
(B) Between Origin to Station A and Station B to Destination
Station A Station B Origin
Option 1
Option 2
Surrounding road
(C) Surrounding road
Trip change influenced by MRT introduction Option 3
Destination
* After this page, option 1 is adopted.
17 17 Copyright (C) Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.
Concept of GHG emissions reduction calculation method
MRT
Station A MRT
Station B
MRT
Station A MRT
Station B
Reference Scenario = Without MRT
Project Scenario = With MRT
Person
Kilometer
CO2 emissions
factor × [PKM] [tCO2/PKM]
Electricity
Consumption
Gird CO2
emissions factor × [kWh] [tCO2/kWh]
Option 1
Option 1
Difference
= Emissions Reductions
Motorcycles, cars, buses, etc….
18 18 Copyright (C) Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.
Calculation Method for Reference Scenario(1)
Each parameter in above formula has some options to measure, but the basic concept of methodology for reference emissions is same. It depends on data availability or feasibility.
Person Kilometer CO2 emissions factor × [PKM] [tCO2/PKM]
For each vehicle
➀ ②
CO2 emissions by transport modes which MRT passengers would have used, in
the case of without MRT
* PKM: Person kilometer
Modal share [%] × Total number of trips [PKM]
The number of trips for each vehicle [PKM]
=
=
* If the number of trips for each vehicle can’t be available, total number of
trips will multiply by modal share.
19 19 Copyright (C) Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.
Calculation Method for Reference Scenario(2)
- Person-Kilometer -
Modal share ×
Total Person-Kilometer of
MRT passengers [PKM]
𝑥𝑖,𝑗 × 𝑦𝑖,𝑗i,j
Modal Share (based on PKM) [%]
A st B st C st ・・・
A st 250 300 ・・・
B st 100 500 ・・・
C st 50 300
・・・ ・・・ ・・・
OD table between MRT stations
- Motor Cycles ●PKM
- Cars ▲PKM
- Buses ■PKM
etc…
×
The distance between B and C station = 𝒚𝑩,𝑪 [km]
The number of passengers from B station to C
station is 500 = 𝒙𝑩,𝑪 [Person]
=
𝒙𝑩,𝑪 × 𝒚𝑩,𝑪 [𝑃𝐾𝑀]
=
The result of an existing survey
Person-Kilometer
for each transport mode [PKM]
20 20 Copyright (C) Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.
Calculation Method for Project Scenario
Electricity consumption [kWh]
CO2 emissions factor [tCO2/kWh]
×
Data offered by MRT operating
company
Default Value
(e.g. The grid emissions
factor DNA release for CDM)
CO2 emissions by operating MRT
21 Copyright (C) Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.
Monitoring and MRV
* Parameter Method to measure Frequency Measurement?
RE Total passengers-kilometer OD table based on IC card system Continually Measurement
RE Distance between stations e.g. Railroad map Once at project start Fixed Value
RE Modal share Existing survey, or Once at project start Fixed Value
Passengers survey, or Once at project start Measurement
Traffic volume survey Once at project start Measurement
RE Emission factor for fuels e.g. IPCC Once at project start Default Value
RE Fuel efficiency for vehicles Existing survey, or Once at project start Fixed Value
Actual fuel consumption and driving
distance
Once a year Measurement
PE Electricity consumption Bill from grid electricity company Every meter reading Measurement
PE Emission factor for electricity e.g. IEA, Vietnamese government Once a year Default Value
* RE: Emission for Reference scenario, PE: Emissions for Project Scenario
• Measurement and Reporting: Operating entity of MRT will be in charge of measurement and reporting. In this regard, Japan should conduct capacity building.
• Verification: To develop verifiers in Vietnam, capacity building toward such organizations is also necessary.
To reduce monitoring cost, the options using default or fixed values will be provided.
22 Copyright (C) Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.
The differences between BOCM and CDM
Total trip by MRT
passengers
CO2 emissions
factor ×
[PKM] [tCO2/PKM]
Differences on the emissions for Reference Scenario: CO2 emissions by travel
modes which MRT passengers would have used without MRT
* The BOCM methodology is now under consideration.
Total trip by MRT
passengers
CO2 emissions
factor ×
[PKM] [tCO2/PKM]
BOCM
CDM
BOCM
CDM
Passenger survey is required
OD table or statistics can be applicable
BOCM
CDM
Sample survey is required
Default value can be applicable
23 Copyright (C) Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.
Emission Reduction Potential – trial estimation -
Items Value Remarks
(1) For Reference Emissions 157,704 (tCO2/year) = a*365*(each b*each c)
a Passenger-kilometer 6,000,000 PKM/day Assumption
b Modal Share (based on PKM) M/C 50.9%, Car 27.1%, Bus 21.9% HAIMUD
c CO2 emissions factor M/C 48 gCO2/PKM, Car 119 gCO2/PKM, Bus 70 gCO2/PKM
HOUTRANS etc
(2) For Project Emissions 27,918 (tCO2/year) = d*e*g/(1-f)
d Electricity consumption by MRT 2,400 MWh/km/year Assumption
e Operating Distance 25.0km Assumption
f Loss rate on transmission and
distribution of electricity(e)
12.1% IEA
g Grid electricity emission factor 0.409 tCO2/MWh IEA
Emissions Reduction 129,786 (tCO2/year) = (1)-(2)
CO2 Credit Revenue US$ 1.65 million/year EUR 10.0 /t-CO2*
EUR 1.0 =US$ 1.27
* CO2 price : EUR 10.0 /t-CO2 (average CER price in 2011)
Trial estimation for a fictional MRT line
24 Copyright (C) Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.
There are some remaining issues for applying BOCM to a MRT project
Conducting survey to get lacking data
Modal share
Fuel efficiency
Number of passengers per one vehicle
Setting Boundary
Necessity to include access/egress traffic and surrounding road* * could be excluded according to results of existing CDM projects
Evaluation criteria: relevance, data availability, and conservativeness
Necessary information to evaluate: supposed behavior of passengers and other persons concerned, and impact of changing boundary on emissions reduction
Detailed design for MRV
Who is in charge of measurement
Which organization could conduct verification, etc.
Remaining Issues
25 25 Copyright (C) Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.
4. Overview of our study plan in FY 2012
26 Copyright (C) Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.
Toward FY2012 from FY2011
What we will do in FY 2012
To conduct a survey to set the default or fixed values, which are used for calculation of GHG emissions reduction
To consider the detail of MRV methodology
To conduct a survey to determine which boundary option is appropriate: whether access/egress traffic to MRT should be included to boundary or not
What we did in FY 2011 To check availability of the existing data, which are used to calculate GHG
emissions reduction by modal shift To establish the framework of MRV methodology To arrange the concept of project boundary to three options
In FY2011
In FY2012
What we didn’t do - remaining issues - To collect some of data that are not available or not updated To establish the detail of MRV methodology To determine the appropriate project boundary
27 Copyright (C) Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.
Overview of the survey in FY 2012
Access/egress traffic
Modal Share*
Actual fuel efficiency*
Number of passengers
per one vehicle*
Interview Survey - Sample: 500 Taxi drivers and Bus
companies
- Survey items: Fuel consumption, Trip
distance, Fare receipt, Number of
passengers, Average occupation rate etc.
Household Survey - Sample: 5,000 people
- Area: within about 2km from each MRT
Line
- Method: face to face
- Survey items: Date, Purpose, Number of
people accompanied, Origin and
Destination, Travel mode, Travel duration,
Travel fee, Willingness to use MRT,
Travel mode for access/egress, Fuel
efficiency etc.
To set default or fixed
value
To determine whether
access/egress should
be included to
calculation or not
* For each travel mode which would be substituted by MRT
Objective Survey Items Survey Methods
28 Copyright (C) Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.
Overview of Household Survey (1/2)
Purpose
• To set the modal share as the default value, based on the understanding of the daily use of travel mode.
• To understand the willingness of using MRT and supposed access / egress travel mode
• To set the fuel efficiency for each vehicle type as the default value, based on the understanding of the fuel consumption and travel distance.
Targets
• Sample size: 5,000 people
• Men and women over the age of five, who live in and go to schools and hospitals along Hanoi No. 1 and No. 2 .
Method
• Conducting in two phase: Small scale Pilot-survey and Full scale Main-survey
• Face-to-face interview visiting respondents’ home • Showing a video and map of MRT with tablet PC in order to help
respondents to understand the image of MRT
29 Copyright (C) Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.
Overview of Household Survey (2/2)
General
Information
Trip
Information
Fuel
Efficiency
Willingness
to use MRT
Male/Female
Age
House types
The number of cars
or motorcycles in use
Occupation
Income bracket
Information of the trip
for one week-day Date of trip
Purpose of trip
The number of people
accompanied on each trip
Origin and Destination
Travel mode / Time / Distance / Fee
Vehicle information Type of vehicle / Model
Engine Capacity
Manufacture
Year of purchase / manufacture
Fuel information Frequency of refuel
How to refuel
Type of fuel
Amount of fuel consumption
and fuel fee for survey duration
Travel distance for survey duration
Respondent is willing to use MRT Access and egress traffic (Travel
mode/time/fee/distance)
MRT (station/willingness to pay)
Respondent is willing not to use
MRT The reason of not using
Household
Survey
■ Survey Items
30 Copyright (C) Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.
Overview of Interview Survey (1/2)
Purpose
• To set the fuel efficiency for each vehicle type as a default value, based on the understanding of the fuel consumption of buses and taxis.
• To set the average number of passengers per each vehicle as a default value.
Targets
• Bus operating companies in Hanoi
• Buses that driving routes are competitive with MRT lines and connecting with MRT stations
• 500 taxi drivers in Hanoi
• Taxies that are driving along MRT lines
Method
• Interview to bus operating companies
• The questionnaire would be sent to the companies in advance.
• Interview to taxi drivers driving along the Hanoi No. 1 and No. 2
• Researchers will ask to the drivers directly, but would contact to taxi companies only when the number of drivers is not enough.
<Bus>
<Taxi>
31 Copyright (C) Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.
Overview of Interview Survey (2/2)
Average number of
passengers/bus Number of passengers
Number and distance of service
Average number of passengers in
each bus
Operation and management Number of buses
Number of operation lines
Distance of each operation line
Bus size
Frequency of operation
Operation
Taxi company / number
The year that a driver
started business
Area of usual driving
Frequency of operation
Average number of passengers Number of passengers
Number of service
Distance of day
Average number of passengers per
service
Interview to
taxi drivers
Interview to
bus company
■ Interview Items
< Survey Period >
Annual or monthly or daily actual figure
(depending on the data sources)
Fuel efficiency Fuel consumption
Trip distance
Fuel type
Frequency of refuel
Whether to fill up their gas tank
< Survey Period >
Annual or monthly or daily actual figure
(depending on the data sources)
Fuel efficiency Fuel consumption
Trip distance
Frequency of refuel
Whether to fill up their gas tank
Fuel type
■ Interview Items
32 Copyright (C) Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.
How to use the result of survey in FY2012
Default values for BOCM methodology would be set and the detail of methodology would be established based on the result of Household survey and Interview survey.
Items set from the survey result Each item in BOCM methodology
Default value of modal share
for each vehicle type
Default value of fuel efficiency
for each vehicle type
Default value of average
number of passengers
Whether to
include access / egress
traffic in calculation
For CDM
These are used
to calculate CO2 emissions reduction
Passengers survey is
required even after starting
operation of MRT
When access / egress traffic would be included
CO2 emissions associated with
access / egress traffic are calculated
Passenger’s survey is
required even after
operating MRT
Used as share of vehicles
substituted by MRT.
Used as CO2 emissions factor
(tCO2/PKM) for each vehicle type. Sample survey is required
33 Copyright (C) Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.
Image of MRV methodology(1/2)
BOCM
methodology
Eligibility Criteria
The methodology is applicable for urban or suburban transport system. It is
not applicable for inter-urban transport.
The methodology is applicable for MRT with technology from a foreign
country.
The methodology is applicable when OD data for each passenger can be
griped by IC card ticket system.
・・・
✓
✓
✓
✓
Selecting a Calculation Method
Introducing
MRT Without existing rail-based
transport system
With existing rail-based transport
system
Option 1
Option 2
Necessary Data for Calculation
Parameter Value Unit
Number of passengers between A station and B station ・・・ People/yr
Number of passengers between A station and C station ・・・ People/yr
・・・ ・・・ People/yr
Electricity consumption by operating MRT ・・・ MWh/yr
・・・ ・・・ ・・・
SAMPLE
34 Copyright (C) Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.
Image of MRV methodology(2/2)
BOCM
methodology
Project Boundary
Project boundary includes these emissions listed below.
CO2 emissions by travel modes which are supposed to be used instead of MRT
CO2 emissions by electricity consumption of operating MRT
Reference Emissions and Calculation
Option 1
Option 2
・・・
Project Emissions and Calculation
Reference Scenario
MRT is not introduced and people use existing travel modes
Monitoring
Electricity consumption [kWh] CO2 emissions factor [tCO2/kWh] ×
Person Kilometer [PKM] CO2 emissions factor [tCO2/PKM] ×
Parameter Measurement method
Number of passengers between stations Aggregation of records of IC card
Electricity consumption by operating MRT Bill from grid electricity company
SAMPLE
Questionnaire Survey
MRV Methodology
Accomplishment Report to MOT, Project Owner
Action in Japan
35 Copyright (C) Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.
Cooperation Structure and Schedule of the Study in FY 2012
Ministry of Transportation(MOT)
TDSI
Ministry of Environment(MOE)
MRI
Marubeni
Project Owner
(VNR,MRB,MAUR) Japan Vietnam
Global Environment Centre
Foundation(GEC)
<prime contractor>
<outsourcing>
mutual cooperation
Jul. 2012 Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Feb. Jan. 2013
Introduction of the Study
Interim Meeting
Final Report
Main- survey
Summary and Analysis of
questionnaire
Materialization of Methodology
Final Report
Consideration of MRV Methodology
based on main-survey
Detailed Design
Formation
Schedule
Pilot- survey Revise questionnaire
Consideration of MRV Methodology based on pre-survey
Preliminary Report
Interim Report
Seminar in Hanoi
36 36 Copyright (C) Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.
Thank you
Xin cam ơn
Contact: Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc
Environment&Energy Research Division,
Climate Change Strategy Group
Tomoyuki NAGAMURA
e-mail: [email protected]
Tel: +81-3-6705-5450/Fax: +81-3-5157-2146
Sayaka OKUMURA
e-mail: [email protected]
Tel: +81-3-6705-5735/Fax: +81-3-5157-2146