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300 Years of NEP Caused By Land Use, CO2 Fertilization and Climate Change According to
LM3
Shevliakova, Malyshev, Hurtt and Pacala
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Can
opy
and
cano
py a
irS
oil/
snow
Atm
osph
ere
Pho
tosy
nthe
sis
Pla
nt a
nd s
oil r
espi
rati
on
En
ergy
an
d m
oist
ure
bal
ance
Car
bon
up
tak
e an
d r
elea
se
t~ 30 min
fine
ro
ots
Energy, water and carbon exchange
leav
essa
pwoo
dla
bile
woo
d
Car
bon
allo
cati
on a
nd g
row
th, t
~ 1
day
Phe
nolo
gy, t
~ 1
mon
th
Mor
tali
ty, n
atur
al a
nd f
ire
t ~ 1
yea
r
Bio
geog
raph
y, t
~ 1
year
{
Lan
d-us
e m
anag
emen
t, t ~
1 y
ear
Climate statistics
Carbon gain
Plant typeLAI, height,roots
Lan
d-us
etr
ansi
tion
s
Vegetation dynamics
Dynamic Land Model LM3V
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Land use characterization
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climate 1951-1970
Experimental Design
spin-up (300 y)
1700
no land-use
land-use
land-use, no secondary
CO2 historical
climate “recycled” 1951-1970
no land-use
CO2 286 ppm
CO2 historical
CO2 historical
CO2 286 ppmCO2 286 ppm
climate 1951-1970
climate 1951-1970
climate 1951-1970
climate 1951-1970
1971-2000
1971-2000
1971-2000
1971-2000
1971-2000
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Global NEP
no land use land use
CO2=286 ppm
CO2=historic
1950
-196
9 R
ecyc
led
Clim
ate
1970
-199
9 T
rue
Clim
ate
CO2=286 ppm
CO2=historic
carb
on,
Gt
carb
on,
Gt
Historic CO2 No Secondary
Historic CO2 Real Land Use
286 ppm Real Land Use
CO2 Fertilization = 2 GtC / y
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Global NEP
no land use land use
CO2=286 ppm
CO2=historic
1950
-196
9 R
ecyc
led
Clim
ate
1970
-199
9 T
rue
Clim
ate
CO2=286 ppm
CO2=historic
carb
on,
Gt
carb
on,
Gt
ENSO Matters
ENSO Matters
Historic CO2 No Secondary
Historic CO2 Real Land Use
286 ppm Real Land Use
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Zonal distribution (1980-1999 ave.)
Recycled climate (1950-1969) True climate (1970-1999)
Model Stable With No Perturbation
Real CO2 No Land Use
Real CO2 No Secondary
Real CO2
Real Land Use
286 ppm Real Land Use
286 ppm No Land Use
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Zonal distribution (1980-1999 ave.)
Recycled climate (1950-1969) True climate (1970-1999)
Real CO2 No Land Use
Real CO2 No Secondary
Real CO2
Real Land Use
286 ppm Real Land Use
286 ppm No Land Use
Tropical Sources Caused By Harvest and Climate
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Zonal distribution (1980-1999 ave.)
Recycled climate (1950-1969) True climate (1970-1999)
Real CO2 No Land Use
Real CO2 No Secondary
Real CO2
Real Land Use
286 ppm Real Land Use
286 ppm No Land Use
Tropical and Northern Sinks Caused By Climate and CO2
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Zonal distribution (1980-1999 ave.)
Recycled climate (1950-1969) True climate (1970-1999)
Temperate Sink Sharpened by Land Use
Real CO2 No Land Use
Real CO2 No Secondary
Real CO2
Real Land Use
286 ppm Real Land Use
286 ppm No Land Use
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Decadal zonal averages
“80s” “90s”
Rec
ycle
d cl
imat
eT
rue
clim
ate
Tropical Dipole Flips
Real CO2 No Land Use
Real CO2 No Secondary
Real CO2
Real Land Use
286 ppm Real Land Use
286 ppm No Land Use
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Decadal zonal averages
“80s” “90s”
Rec
ycle
d cl
imat
eT
rue
clim
ate
Temperate Sink Stable
Real CO2 No Land Use
Real CO2 No Secondary
Real CO2
Real Land Use
286 ppm Real Land Use
286 ppm No Land Use
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No land use
East US Regrowth
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Land use
East US Regrowth
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No land use
Amazonian Deforestation
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Land use
Amazonian Deforestation
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Land use
Africa Drying
Tru
e C
limat
eR
ecyc
led
Clim
ate
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Wood Products Matter
Wood Products Sink
NEP
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Message to modelers who want to diagnose the cause of the
terrestrial sink:
• Estimate dependencies on climate with forest inventory, eddy covariance and atmospheric trace gas measurements.
• Add land use with secondary harvest to solve the initial condition problem.
• Track agricultural and wood products.
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