Download - 4 q13 earnings presentation final
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FY13 and 4Q13 Earnings Conference Call
October 9, 2013
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A Word of Caution Certain statements contained in this presentation which are not historical facts are forward-looking statements made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements address the Company’s plans, activities or events which the Company expects will or may occur in the future.
A number of important factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in any forward-looking statements. Such factors, risks and uncertainties are set forth under the headings “Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements,” or “Risk Factors” or "Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operation" in the Company’s annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q filed or to be filed, respectively, and which are expressly incorporated herein by reference.
You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of October 9, 2013. The Company does not undertake to update or revise its forward-looking statements even if experience or future changes make it clear that projected results expressed or implied in such statements will not be realized, except as may be required by law.
In addition, a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures discussed in this presentation to the comparable GAAP financial measures is included in the appendix to this presentation and in our earnings release, which is available on our website.
2 Published on October 9, 2013
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Agenda
Introduction & Safe Harbor Kiley Rawlins, CFA VP – IR & Communications
FY13 Highlights Howard Levine Chairman & CEO
Operational Update Mike Bloom President & COO
Financial Review and Outlook Mary Winston Chief Financial Officer
Closing Remarks Howard Levine
Questions & Answers Howard Levine Mike Bloom Mary Winston
3
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FY13 Highlights
Howard Levine Chairman & CEO
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FY13 Key Accomplishments
• Exceeded $10B in total net sales – 3% increase in comparable store sales
– Increased market share
• Adjusted FY13 diluted EPS increased 4.4% to $3.80
• Adjusted 4Q13 diluted EPS increased 14.7% to $0.86
• Opened 500 new stores and renovated, relocated or expanded 830 stores
• Launched McLane partnership
• Increased direct-to-factory purchases
• Increased private brand consumables penetration
• Opened 11th distribution center in St. George, UT
• Strengthened our management team
5 Published on October 9, 2013
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FY14 Focus
• Managing near-term challenges
– Adapting to slower sales environment
• Investing for longer-term growth
– 525 new stores
– 850 renovations
6 Published on October 9, 2013
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Operational Update
Michael Bloom President & COO
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4Q13 Results
• Expanded gross margin
• Controlled expenses
• Increased profitability
• Flat comparable store sales
o 2% consumable comp in 4Q13 on a 10.5% comp increase in 4Q12
• Increased market share
8
Adjusted Diluted EPS Increased 14.7%
Published on October 9, 2013
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4Q13 Highlights
• Strong refrigerated and frozen food sales
• Tobacco
• Stabilization of discretionary categories
• Gross margin improvement
9 Published on October 9, 2013
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FY14 Operational Focus
• Customers face continued financial challenges
• Anniversarying strong consumable comp growth in fiscal 2013
• Key areas of focus
– Drive sales
– Increase profitability
10 Published on October 9, 2013
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Driving Sales
• Increase relevancy and trips
– Optimize consumables
– Stabilize discretionary
• Enhance value perception
• Optimize marketing programs
• Improve shopability
11 Published on October 9, 2013
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Increasing Profitability
• Global sourcing
• Private brands
• Supplier partnerships
• Inventory shrinkage
• Supply chain efficiencies
12 Published on October 9, 2013
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Long-Term Investments
• New stores
• Renovation program
• Process improvement
– Pallet delivery program
13 Published on October 9, 2013
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Bright Future
• Stabilizing key financial metrics
– Gross margin
– Inventory productivity
– Store Manager turnover
• Sales drivers
• Long-term investments to support growth
14 Published on October 9, 2013
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Financial Review and Outlook
Mary Winston CFO
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Fourth Quarter Revenues
$2.4
$2.5
Net Sales (billions)
4Q12 4Q13
5.4%
0.0%
Comparable Store Sales Growth
4Q12 4Q13
16 Published on October 9, 2013
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Store Activity FY12 FY13
Openings Closings Openings Closings
1Q 101 4 125 1
2Q 83 32 126 17
3Q 103 7 129 3
4Q 188 13 120 5
Full Year 475 56 500 26
Ending Store Count 7,442 7,916
Selling square footage (M) 53,206 56,846
Renovations, Relocations and Expansions
854 830
17 Published on October 9, 2013
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Fourth Quarter Gross Profit
18
34.5% 34.7%
34.0% 33.8%
34.7% 34.5%
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
4Q09 4Q10 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q13*
Gro
ss P
rofi
t ($
M)
Gross Profit Trends
GM$ GM Rate
Improvements
• Higher initial markups
• Lower freight costs
Headwinds
• Mix pressure
• Higher inventory shrinkage
• Higher markdowns
*Adjusted for a one-time $5.0 million favorable adjustment related to a change in accounting for certain vendor allowances
Published on October 9, 2013
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Sales Mix Trends
72.5% 74.2%
9.5% 9.0% 8.6% 7.8%
9.4% 9.1%
4Q12 4Q13
Category Sales Mix (% of Sales)
Consumables Home Products
Apparel & Accessories Seasonal & Electronics
19
68.9% 72.5%
11.4% 10.3% 9.6% 8.0%
10.0% 9.2%
3Q12 3Q13
Category Sales Mix (% of Sales)
Consumables Home Products
Apparel & Accessories Seasonal & Electronics
+360 bps +170 bps
Published on October 9, 2013
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Fourth Quarter SG&A Expense
20
$11.33 $11.76 $12.05
$12.60 $12.63
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
4Q09 4Q10 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13
SG&A Expense (per average selling sq.ft.)
29.5%
28.8%
28.1% 28.0%
28.5%
27%
28%
28%
29%
29%
30%
30%
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
4Q09 4Q10 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13
SG&
A E
xpen
se (
$M
)
SG&A Trends
SG&A SG&A (% of Sales)
Published on October 9, 2013
*Average selling square feet over the quarter
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Fourth Quarter Operating Profit
5.1%
5.9% 5.9%
5.8% 6.0%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
4Q09 4Q10 4Q11 4Q12* 4Q13**
Op
erating M
argin
Op
erat
ing
Pro
fit
($M
)
Operating Profit Trends
Operating Profit Operating Margin
21
*Excludes a litigation charge of $11.5 million in 4Q12 **Adjusted for a one-time $5.0 million favorable adjustment related to a change in accounting for certain vendor allowances in 4Q13
Published on October 9, 2013
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Fourth Quarter Earnings Results
(in millions except for per share amounts)
4Q12 4Q13 Change
Net Income $80.9 $102.2 +26.3%
Adjusted Net Income $88.1 $99.0 +12.5%
Diluted Earnings per Share
$0.69 $0.88 +27.5%
Adjusted Diluted Earnings per Share
$0.75 $0.86 +14.7%
Weighted average shares - diluted
117.3 115.6
22 Published on October 9, 2013
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Annual Revenues
$9.3
$10.4
Net Sales (billions)
FY12 FY13*
4.7%
3.0%
Comparable Store Sales Growth
FY12 FY13
23
*FY13 is a 53-week year
Published on October 9, 2013
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Sales Growth by Category
11.8%
7.5%
11.1%
13.2%
16.9%
-3.1%
4.2% 4.2%
1.2%
-0.9%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13*
(per
cen
t o
f sa
les)
Consumables Discretionary
24
*FY13 is a 53-week year
Published on October 9, 2013
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Annual Gross Profit
25
34.8%
35.7% 35.5% 34.9%
34.2%
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
Gro
ss P
rofi
t ($
M)
Gross Profit Trends
GM$ GM Rate
Improvements
• Higher initial markups
• Lower freight costs
Headwinds
• Stronger sales of lower-margin consumables
• Higher inventory shrinkage
• Higher markdowns
*FY13 is a 53-week year
Published on October 9, 2013
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Annual SG&A Expense
26
28.7%
28.4%
28.2%
27.7% 27.6%
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
SG&
A E
xpen
se (
$M
)
SG&A Trends
SG&A SG&A (% of Sales)
• Lower incentive compensation expense
• Higher store occupancy costs
*FY13 is a 53-week year
Published on October 9, 2013
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Annual Earnings Results
(in millions except for per share amounts)
FY12 FY13* Change
Net Income $422.2 $443.6 +5.1%
Adjusted Net Income $429.4 $440.4 +2.6%
Diluted Earnings per Share
$3.58 $3.83 +7.0%
Adjusted Diluted Earnings per Share
$3.64 $3.80 +4.4%
Weighted average shares - diluted
118.1 115.8
27
*FY13 is a 53-week year
Published on October 9, 2013
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$149 $152 $164
$192 $185
$0
$25
$50
$75
$100
$125
$150
$175
$200
$225
$250
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13*
(th
ou
san
ds)
• Anniversary of FY12 consumables expansion
• Well-managed discretionary inventories
28
*FY13 is a 53-week year
Published on October 9, 2013
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Capital Expenditures
$155
$212
$345
$603
$744
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
(mill
ion
s)
• More new store openings ($385M) – New fee development
program
• Renovation program ($149M)
• Supply chain expansion ($76M)
• Corporate/ IT ($81M)
• Existing stores ($53M)
29 Published on October 9, 2013
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Investing Activities
$603
$744
$360 $345
FY12 FY13
(millions)
Capital Expenditures Sale Leaseback Proceeds
30 Published on October 9, 2013
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Returning Capital to Shareholders
73 79 83 91 108 71
332
670
192 75
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
(mill
ion
s)
Dividends Share Repurchases
31 Published on October 9, 2013
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Outlook*
FY14
Total Sales Mid–single-digit growth
Comparable Store Sales Low –single-digit growth
Gross Margin Expansion
SG&A Expense De-leverage
Tax Rate 36% - 36.5%
Diluted Earnings per Share $3.80 – $4.15
Capital expenditures $550M - $600M
Sale-leaseback transactions $200M - $250M
32
*As provided in earnings press release dated October 9, 2013
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Outlook*
1Q14
Total Sales 3% to 5% increase
Comparable Store Sales Low-single-digit decrease
Gross Margin 30-40 basis points of expansion
SG&A Expense De-leverage
Diluted Earnings per Share $0.65 - $0.75
33
*As provided in earnings press release dated October 9, 2013
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FY13 and 4Q13 Earnings Conference Call
October 9, 2013
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Appendix
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Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Disclosures*
36
(in thousands, except per share amounts) GAAP
% of Net
Sales Adjustment Adjusted
% of Net
Sales
Gross profit 868,443$ 34.71% 4,953 863,490$ 34.51%
Operating profit 155,591 6.22% 4,953 150,638 6.02%
Income before income taxes 157,040 6.28% 4,953 152,087 6.08%
Income taxes 54,827 2.19% 1,778 53,049 2.12%
Net income 102,213$ 4.08% 3,175$ 99,038$ 3.96%
Net income per common share - diluted 0.88$ 0.86$
Weighted average shares - diluted 115,610 115,610
For the Fourth Quarter Ended August 31, 2013
*As provided in earnings press release dated October 9, 2013
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Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Disclosures*
37
(in thousands, except per share amounts) GAAP
% of Net
Sales Adjustment Adjusted
% of Net
Sales
Gross profit 3,554,745$ 34.21% 4,953 3,549,792$ 34.16%
Operating profit 687,957 6.62% 4,953 683,004 6.57%
Income before income taxes 690,697 6.65% 4,953 685,744 6.60%
Income taxes 247,122 2.38% 1,778 245,344 2.36%
Net income 443,575$ 4.27% 3,175$ 440,400$ 4.24%
Net income per common share - diluted 3.83$ 3.80$
Weighted average shares - diluted 115,805 115,805
For the Year Ended August 31, 2013
*As provided in earnings press release dated October 9, 2013
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Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Disclosures*
38
(in thousands, except per share amounts) GAAP
% of Net
Sales Adjustment Adjusted
% of Net
Sales
Litigation charge 11,500$ 0.49% (11,500) -$ 0.00%
Operating profit 125,620 5.31% 11,500 137,120 5.80%
Income before income taxes 126,550 5.35% 11,500 138,050 5.84%
Income taxes 45,619 1.93% 4,360 49,979 2.11%
Net income 80,931$ 3.42% 7,140$ 88,071$ 3.73%
Net income per common share - diluted 0.69$ 0.75$
Weighted average shares - diluted 117,267 117,267
For the Fourth Quarter Ended August 25, 2012
*As provided in earnings press release dated October 9, 2013
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Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Disclosures*
39
(in thousands, except per share amounts) GAAP
% of Net
Sales Adjustment Adjusted
% of Net
Sales
Litigation charge 11,500$ 0.12% (11,500) -$ 0.00%
Operating profit 664,213 7.12% 11,500 675,713 7.24%
Income before income taxes 663,938 7.12% 11,500 675,438 7.24%
Income taxes 241,698 2.59% 4,360 246,058 2.64%
Net income 422,240$ 4.53% 7,140$ 429,380$ 4.60%
Net income per common share - diluted 3.58$ 3.64$
Weighted average shares - diluted 118,058 118,058
For the Year Ended August 25, 2012
*As provided in earnings press release dated October 9, 2013