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Since September 2014 the euro has devalued 20% against the US dollar (from 1.3 to 1.05$/), and then regained some value in April 2015 back to a peak of 1.15$/. After that event, the euro has dropped again to 1.1$/. What is the likely range of value of the EUR/USD in October 2015? (hint: assign probabilities to different scenarios / ranges of value).

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