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8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU
IMPACTS OF ISTANBUL EMISSIONS ON REGIONAL AIR QUALITY: QUANTIFICATION USING MODELS-3 FRAMEWORK AND
TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS
Huseyin Ozdemira, Ulas Imb, Markakis Kostandinosc, Tugba Agacayakd, Alper Unald, Tayfun Kindapd, Maudood Khane
aBahcesehir University, Environmental Engineering Department, Istanbul, TURKEY
bBogazici University, Institute of Environmental Sciences, Istanbul, TURKEY
cAristotle University of Thessaloniki, Department of Physics, Thessaloniki, GREECE
dIstanbul Technical University, Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, Istanbul, TURKEY
eUniversities Space Research Association NASA Marshall Square Flight Center, Huntsville AL., USA
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8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU
Outline
Introduction
Episode selection
Trajectory analysis
Emissions modeling
Air quality modeling results
Discussions and conclusions
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8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU
Istanbul
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8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU
Research Objectives
Identify the reasons for high PM levels in Istanbul
Quantify effect of Istanbul emissions on regional air
quality
Method:
Comprehensive high resolution anthropogenic
emission inventory
Models-3 modeling framework
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8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU
Observations
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8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU
Episode
January 13-17, 2008
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8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU
Trajectory Analysis
Autumn Spring
Summer Winter
Forward trajectory method by Pettersen (1956)
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8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU
Modeling Domain
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8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU
Emission Inventory
92 x 57 km area with 2 km grid spacing
Temporal resolution on monthly, weekly and diurnal
processing
Compiling the emission inventory (bottom-up
methodology)
- Residential and industrial combustion
- Energy sector
- Maritime sector
- Solvents use and coal extraction emissions
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8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU
Emission Inventory
High quality geographical information (GIS)
Mapbasic 9.0 programming language
Mapinfo 9.0 GIS software
39 chemical species
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8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU
Schematic diagram of the emission processor
(Kostandinos et al., 2009, submitted)
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8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU
Chemistry and Transport Modeling
The US EPA Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ)
model, version 4.6
Three domains (on lambert conformal projection)
- Europe in a 163×150 grid system of 30 km res.
- Balkan region in a 140×155 grids domain of 10 km res.
- Istanbul in a 92×57 grids domain of 2 km res.
- 20 vertical layers
The first three days - spin-up period
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8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU
MODELING RESULTS
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8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU
MODELING RESULTS
Measures PM10
Correlation 0.62
Observed Mean (µg/m3) 81.74
Model Mean / Obs. Mean 0.55
Observed STDDEV (µg/m3) 15.14
Model STDEV / Obs. STDEV 1.25
BIAS (µg/m3) -47.73
ABSE (µg/m3) 47.73
RMSE (µg/m3) 49.77
IOA 0.38
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8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU
Obs. Mean
(µg/m3)
Model Mean/ObsMean
BIAS (µg/m3)
ABSE (µg/m3) RMSE (µg/m3)
Alibeyköy 92.7 1.6 53.9 73.5 85.3
Beşiktaş 105.5 0.5 -49.4 53.1 62.9
Saraçhane 88.5 1.4 36.4 80.1 96
Sarıyer 95.2 0.6 -36.1 36.1 44.7
Yenibosna 126.1 0.7 -38.4 60.8 87.1
Esenler 202.2 0.7 -64.7 65.6 89.3
Kartal 116.8 0.4 -67.8 67.8 73.9
Ümraniye 92.7 0.3 -62.8 62.8 65.7
Üsküdar 103.2 0.7 -34.7 44.6 54.8
MODELING RESULTS
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8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU
Summary
The PM10 levels calculated by the model underestimated the
observations with an average of 30%.
Uncertainties between model results and observations
Lacking of temporal profiles
Meteorology may introduce large uncertainties
Static boundary conditions may introduce high uncertainties
Performance evaluation for meteorology model results are
underway
For future work we are planning to improve emissions data
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8th annual CMAS conference, Chapel Hill, October 19-21, 2009 Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences / ITU
Thank you.