Download - 9 April Daily technical trader
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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar
Thursday, 09 April 2015
Stocks Covered Today
Ticker Price 1st
Target
KCBK 20.29 20.60
QNCD 121.90 123.40
QSE Index
Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)
Last 11,947.45 1.0 6.7
Resistance/Support
Levels 1st
2nd
3rd
Resistance 11,960 12,000 12,100
Support 11,850 11,760 11,500
QSE Index Commentary
Overview: The QSE Index marginally missed our expected resistance on the day and met with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. This retracement is based on the bearish leg that stretched since middle of February. The MACD is rising which is positive but it is still below the zero line, indicating we still did not get released from the downtrend. The upcoming resistance is expected to be a tough one around and above the 12,000 level. Expected Resistance Level: 12,000 Expected Support Level: 11,850
QSE Index (Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
QE Summary
Market Indicators 08 Apr 15 07 Apr 15 %Ch.
Value Traded (QR mn) 365.2 365.6 -0.1
Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 642.4 638.0 0.7
Volume (mn) 9.6 8.2 16.5
Number of Trans. 4,888 4,430 10.3
Companies Traded 41 40 2.5
Market Breadth 33:6 27:11 –
QE Indices
Market Indices Close 1D% RSI
Total Return 18,565.41 1.0 58.6
All Share Index 3,189.68 0.9 57.5
Banks 3,183.11 0.2 50.6
Industrials 3,983.95 0.7 59.9
Transportation 2,445.80 1.1 54.5
Real Estate 2,532.67 3.0 67.2
Insurance 4,143.23 0.5 54.2
Telecoms 1,327.42 0.2 45.0
Consumer 7,065.71 1.3 55.6
Al Rayan Islamic 4,435.42 1.5 64.1
RSI 14 (Over Bought)
Ticker Close 1D% RSI
RSI 14 (Over Sold)
Ticker Close 1D% RSI
QSE Index (30min)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
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KCBK
Price % Ch. Volume
Last 20.29 0.74 149,958
Resistance/Support
Levels (QR) 1st
2nd
3rd
Resistance 20.35 20.60 20.90
Support 20.10 20.00 19.70
Commentary
Overview: The name bounced up from the base of the trading range and retreated back. The MACD movement suggests that there might be some more juice for the upper move on the daily chart. Expected Target Price: QR20.60 – QR20.90 A break above QR20.35 is needed to trigger the buy recommendation. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR 20.10
(Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
(Hourly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
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QNCD
Price % Ch. Volume
Last 121.90 1.58 37,502
Resistance/Support
Levels (QR) 1st
2nd
3rd
Resistance 122.00 123.40 125.00
Support 120.00 118.00 114.00
Commentary
Overview: The name created a Double-Bottom bullish reversal pattern (seen on the intraday chart). On the other hand, we see that the stock reached a downtrend line that started from last February, which can create some resistance. Thus, breaking above the downtrend line could also confirm the Double-Bottom formation and is expected to have positive momentum on the name. Expected Target Price: QR123.40 – QR125.00 A break above QR122.00 triggers the long position on the name. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR120.00
(Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
(Hourly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
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Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels
Ticker Close 3rd
2nd
1st
Pivot 1st
2nd
3rd
50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA
QSE Index 11,947.45 11,787.88 11,835.56 11,865.02 11,912.71 11,960.39 11,989.85 12,037.54 12,087.21 12,254.76 12,794.43
Total Return 18,565.41 18,317.46 18,391.55 18,437.32 18,511.42 18,585.51 18,631.28 18,705.38 18,409.13 18,468.45 19,178.01
All Share 3,189.68 3,150.73 3,162.24 3,169.35 3,180.86 3,192.37 3,199.48 3,210.99 3,175.34 3,174.05 3,273.68
Al Rayan Islamic 4,435.42 4,341.18 4,368.18 4,384.86 4,411.86 4,438.86 4,455.54 4,482.54 4,319.09 4,248.35 4,375.21
Banks & Financials Services
MARK 48.50 48.00 48.17 48.28 48.45 48.62 48.73 48.90 47.27 46.43 50.02
CBQK 56.60 55.93 56.16 56.30 56.53 56.76 56.90 57.13 61.08 61.84 62.64
DHBK 51.90 51.30 51.49 51.61 51.80 51.99 52.11 52.30 54.76 55.79 57.39
QIBK 101.20 99.80 100.26 100.54 101.00 101.46 101.74 102.20 102.89 102.82 105.81
QIIK 81.50 80.77 81.07 81.26 81.57 81.87 82.06 82.37 82.93 82.01 84.02
Insurance
QATI 78.90 77.57 77.95 78.18 78.57 78.95 79.18 79.57 78.34 77.15 79.13
Consumer Goods & Services
MCGS 144.00 139.33 140.86 141.81 143.33 144.86 145.81 147.33 142.59 131.92 123.88
Industrials
IQCD 145.00 142.67 143.62 144.21 145.17 146.12 146.71 147.67 145.74 158.82 171.70
QEWS 192.50 190.83 191.44 191.82 192.43 193.04 193.42 194.03 191.09 189.50 187.85
GISS 95.10 93.97 94.58 94.96 95.57 96.18 96.56 97.17 96.54 97.79 106.57
QIGD 41.45 39.52 40.07 40.41 40.97 41.52 41.86 42.42 41.08 41.11 48.41
Real Estate
BRES 47.25 45.05 45.68 46.07 46.70 47.33 47.72 48.35 47.39 45.97 43.62
UDCD 21.80 21.39 21.52 21.60 21.73 21.86 21.94 22.07 23.30 23.88 25.74
ERES 16.65 15.96 16.16 16.29 16.50 16.70 16.83 17.04 15.89 15.87 18.05
MRDS 18.91 18.60 18.69 18.75 18.85 18.94 19.00 19.10 19.35 19.65 20.78
Telecommunication
ORDS 100.00 99.07 99.33 99.50 99.77 100.03 100.20 100.47 109.66 113.42 121.21
VFQS 17.75 17.50 17.59 17.65 17.73 17.82 17.88 17.96 17.38 16.83 18.52
Transportation
QGTS 22.60 22.46 22.53 22.58 22.65 22.72 22.77 22.84 23.74 23.42 23.64
QNNS 100.80 98.27 98.99 99.44 100.17 100.89 101.34 102.07 103.10 100.20 97.71 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price
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Definitions:
Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening
and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is
lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they
compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.
Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.
Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the
security price to head lower.
SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus
considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative
price direction and potential support/resistance levels.
Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in
a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally
use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be
considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.
Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &
shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.
Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These
levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.
Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot
Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.
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Contacts:
Saugata Sarkar QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 PO Box 24025
[email protected] Doha, Qatar
Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary
Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutions
Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548
[email protected] [email protected]
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