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9/11, Afghanistan and Iraq
Prof. Theo FarrellDept of War StudiesKing’s College London
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Content
9/11 and Al Qaeda 2001-2002 Afghanistan War The Bush Doctrine 2003 Iraq War The Logic of Prevention
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The bad guys
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Al Qaeda’s record
bombing of World Trade Center (1993)
attempt to destroy 11 Jumbo’s (1995)
bombing of US facilities in Riyadh (1995) & Dhahran (1996), killing 26 and injuring 540
embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania, killing 224 (1998)
attack on USS Cole (2000)
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Impact of 9/11
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Blair on 9/11 (March 2004)
September 11 was for me a revelation
If the 20th century scripted ourconventional way of thinking, the 21st
century is unconventional in almostevery respect. This is true also of oursecurity.
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Terrorism and public fear
involuntary exposure- cars kill more than terrorists- terrorism is beyond our control
unfamiliarity- Malaria (kills 1m each year) v Ebola (killed 891 since 1976)– Sept01 anthrax attack on US closes down DC but only kills 5
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The New Terrorists
Smarter
More agile
More lethal
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Al Qaeda’s strategy
1. Bleeding wars
2. Building safe havens and franchises (AQI, AQIM, Hamas)
3. Raids on the West
Bruce Riedel, The Search for Al Qaeda
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GWOT: the opening campaign
“War on Terrorism”: Bush address to nation on 11 Sept.
Rumsfeld orders JCS to draw up military options on 12 Sept.
CENTCOM plan approved 2 Oct and Op Enduring Freedom begins 7 Oct
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CENTCOM uses the CIA plan
JCS plans (13-15 Sept)(a) cruise missile attacks(b) longer bombing campaign(c) large-scale invasion
CIA plan: US airpower, SOF teams + local Afghan allies
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Op Enduring Freedom
1. Coalition air offensive (7-19 Oct)
2. US/UK supported NA offensive in North (late Oct–Nov 2001)
3. US/UK-led land offensive in South (Dec 2001–July 2002)
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Bush Doctrine
Terrorists + WMD = increase the risks of inaction
“To forestall or prevent such hostile acts by our adversaries, the United States will, if necessary, act preemptively in exercising our inherent right of self-defense.”
Nat Security Strategy, 20 Sept 2002
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Neocon agenda
Moral certitude
Military primacy
Middle East democracy
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Iraq: the road to war
Post 9/11: worse-case analysis gained a new credibility
Bush orders war plans (21 Nov 2001)
Framing the threat: “Axis of Evil” (2002 State of the Union)
Selling the threat: Iraq, Al Qaeda and WMD
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Iraq: countdown to war
Aug 2002: Bush authorises war plans
10 Oct 2002: Congress authorises war, 296-133 & 77-23
8 Nov 2002: UNSC passes res. 1441
20 March 2003: OIF begins
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Twenty days later…
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Rumsfeld Doctrine
CONOPS: “Shock and awe” replaces “overwhelming force”
“Army lite” invasion force: 170,000 (v. 540,000 in 1991 GW)
Victory for military transformation
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Losing the peace
Lack of phase IV planning
ORHA & CPA: poorly resourced and staffed
US forces: too few and unprepared for COIN
American mistakes
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American mistakes
1. De-baathification2. Disbanding the Iraqi Army3. Failure to maintain order4. Pushing too fast on political and
economic reform
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The logic of prevention
Preventive war thinking in early Cold War America
Clinton administration and North Korea
Israeli raids on nuclear facilities in Iraq (1981) and Syria (Sept 2007)