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JACCAR EQUITY RESEARCH – VIETNAM
Disclaimer : Please refer to important disclosuresat the end of this report. www.jaccar.net
An Pha S.G. Petrol JSC
A ‘boom’ in gas volume?• In term of 2008 business, the revenues reached VND 1,434 bn vs VND
1,400 bn forecasted, i.e. a difference of 2%. The gap is higher regarding the
net profit as we forecasted only VND 12 bn (an assumption very closed to
the unaudited accounts) vs VND 17.2 bn published. The difference came
mainly from: 1/ strong contribution of the other incomes and 2/ higher
financial results even if the company paid VND 15 bn for its interest rate
and suffered of foreigner exchange.
• 2008 dividends will be paid 7%/share by cash and bonus share at 3:1 ratio.
The company kept VND 965 m for its working capital.
•
The company disposed its investment capital in AnPha Hydroelectric toanother company and stopped the investment. Moreover, the company
hasn’t completed its plan of buying another gas company as mentioned in
our previous report due to lack of capital.
• For 2009, the company is expecting a net profit of VND 41.6 bn (USD 2.5
m) by increasing gas volume by 33%. But we think that it is quite
impossible to reach this target as we forecasted Vietnam LPG demand
won’t grow more than 6% y-o-y and the company’s market share is only
10%. So we have decided to keep our assumptions as we know 2009 will
be a very difficult year, especially with oil price and global demand
decreasing.
• 2009 investments could reach about VND 111 bn (USD 6.3 m), dedicated
to business infrastructure like storages, transportation and gas cylinders.
Jaccar reckons it is a huge investment for the company as ASP burned half
of its cash in 2008 while no huge investments were done.
• Otherwise we would like to underline that for 2009, the company has
planned to merge ANPHA PETROL JOINT STOCK COMPANY -
Subsidiary Co and GIA DINH LIQUID PETROLIEUM GAS CO.,Ltd -
Subsidiary Co. in order to reduce management fees and develop the market
shares with same brand of product in Ha Noi. Otherwise, the company
planned to convert MINH THONG GAZ JPGAZ - Subsidiary Co. to one-
member limited liability company form. However, there is no particular plan for this new strategy.
• Last key point regarding the management, M. Chairman Tran Minh Loan
left the post of General Director and will be replaced by M. Tr ươ ng Hữ u
Phướ c. At the same time, M. Tr ươ ng Hữ u Phướ c was appointed to be a
board member replacing M. Vu Hong Minh.
• At this stage, we keep our Reduce recommendation with a target price of
VND 7,872 (i.e. 0.65 USD). We are waiting for a meeting with the
management for adjusting any assumption for 2009 and 2010, as the
company is more aggressive than us in terms of net profit growth. We opt
for a cautious stance.
Performance
Rating: REDUCE
Target Price: 7,872 VND
Company DataPrice, close (Apr 20, 2009): 10,300 VND
Price, close (Apr 20, 2009): 0.62 USD
Market cap. (VND bn): 216
Market cap. (USD m): 12.98
Turnover per day: 57,260
Bloomberg code: ASP VN
Company ContactsMr. Tran Minh Loan (CEO)
Mr. Vu Van Thang (CFO)Mr. Vu Van Thang (IR)
http://www.anphapetrol.com
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2/08 5/08 8/08 11/08 2/09
Price Price/VN Index
P&L Highlights(VND bn) 2006 2007 2008 2 009e 2 010e
Sales 347 1,265 1,435 1,296 1,607
EBIT 8 34 49 43 53
Op. Margin (%) 2% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Net Income 2 17 17 12 22
Net Margin (%) 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Fixed Assets 61 375 397 518 515
Debts 49 103 166 261 229
FCF (21) (159) (64) (135) 32
FCF yield (%) - - -693% ###### 309%
Key Ratios(x) 2006 2007 2008 2009e 2010e
EV/Sales - - 0.2 0.4 0.3
EV/EBITDA - - 4.1 10.9 8.2
EV/EBIT - - 4.5 10.8 8.2PE - - 6.8 12.0 8.4
P/Book - - 0.5 0.9 0.9
ROE (%) 8% 9% 10% 6% 9%
ROCE (%) 9% 7% 9% 7% 10%
Div. Yield (%) - - 15% 5% 5%
Payout ratio (%) 187% 135% 102% 72% 99%
Next Events
Analyst
Le Mai Thuy Linh
81-85 Ham Nghi
District 1Ho Chi Minh City
Tel: +84 8 39 14 90 60
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VALUATION
To valuate An Pha Petrol we looked at different methods: DCF, Peer Comparision (EV/Ebitda
and P/Book) and Sector-based transactions.
• We could not choose the DCF method. Indeed the Free Cash Flows of the company are
mostly negative;• The peer comparison seems to be more relevant although it was not easy to find a similar
business model;
• Sector-based transactions: we think that it is one of the most relevant method as the
sector is currently facing to a merger & acquisition wave, as mentioned in our sector
division.
Discounted cash flow (DCF)We didn’t choose to valuate ASP with the DCF method, because the company doesn’t have
recurrent positive FCF. The positive Free Cash Flow starting 2010 (see table below) depends on
the policy of cylinders sales. We estimate that the group can proceed to important cylinders sales
during this period but it could not sustain this rhythm as it would imply the sales of all assets.
According to the historical data, ASP did huge cylinders sales each 5 years.
The above figures indicate that the ASP's free cash flow (FCF) remained negative from 2005 to
2009e. Here are some explanations:
1/Low net margin,
2/Huge investments and
3/High dividend yield.
• Net margin: The primary business of ASP is to buy out LPG and resell it to consumers.
For this form of business, the cost of sales represents a rather high portion (accounting
for 90% of the sales revenue). According to Jaccar's financial analysis, it’s impossible to
reduce the costs of the raw materials, which implies a constant low operating and netmargins;
• Large investments: Despite its low return on investment, ASP is continuing to make large
investments. In 2007, the company spent VND 27bn (equivalent to 160% of net profit)
and in 2009, the investment planned more than VND 100 bn.
• Dividends: The Company has a generous dividend policy. In 2007, its dividend yield
came as high as 15% (VND 1,500 / share), accounting for 20% of net profit.. In 2008, it
has a dividend payment plan of VND 14.2 bn (equivalent to 85% of the net profit!). For
the two following years, its dividend payment schedule is expected at 80% - 90% of the
net income.
In conclusion, with its low net margin, large investment schemes, and excessively generous
dividend yield, the ASP’s free cash flow has remained negative from 2005 to 2010, making it
impossible to apply the DCF method in this case.
Cash-flows and Free Cash-Flows generation
Year Cash Flow Cash FlowFree Cash
FlowFree Cash
Flow(VND, m) (USD, m) (VND, m) (USD, m)
2006 60 3.6 (21) (1.2)2007 (21) (1.2) (159) (9.5)
2008 (19) (1.5) (64) (3.9)2009e 10 0.6 (135) (8.1)
2010e 19 1.1 32 1.9
2011e 17 1.0 33 2.0Source: Jaccar
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Peer comparisonTo value ASP, using peer comparision, Jaccar uses two sets of different peers. One set includes
big international companies, the other inlucdes regional smaller players, which are closer to
ASP. For this method, we used only two key multiples, as they are considered as the most
relevant by the players in the sector when they have to value the competitors in M&A cases.
Regional players
• Shell Refining Co Federation of Malaysia Bhd: is a company that refines and
manufactures petroleum products including liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), lubricant, oil
and bitumen. The company also blends lubricating oil;
• IPRC PCL (Thailand): is a company producing a variety of petrochemical products
including polypropylene, high density polyethylene and expandable polystyrene
primarily in packaging materials. Through its subsidiaries, the company produces and
distributes gasoline, LPG, asphalt, as well as electricity and construction materials;
• PetroChina Co Ltd (China): explores, develops and produces crude oil and natural gas.
The company also refines, transports, and distributes crude oil and petroleum products, as
well as produces and sells chemicals, and transmits markets and sells natural gas.
• Petronas Gas Berhad (Malaysia): is processing and separating natural gas into its
components from the gas field offshore Terengganu. The company stores, transports and
distributes these components as well as trades utilities to petrochemical.
Based on the EV/Ebitda multiple, we find the company’s share value of VND 8,025, i.e USD
0.45, recording a premium of 36% of the current price.
If we use at the same time the P/Book ratio, the valuation of ASP reaches VND 15 232, i.e.0.87
USD per share.
Before applying this method, we test the reliability of the book value (usually, we have to have a
rotation rate of the cylinder of 3% per month. This figure allows us to check the right level of
sales of the company).
International PlayersThe first player Gazprom is a Russian company which extracts, transports, stores and sells
natural gas. The company is the successor to the State-owned gas company. Gazprom owns andoperates Russia’s Unified Gas Supply system. The company has a monopoly in supplying gas in
the Russian Federation and exports natural gas to Western Europe.
Peer Comparison (EV/Ebitda)
Company NameLastPrice
Marketcap
EV/ Ebitda 2009e
EV/ Ebitda 2010e
EV/ Ebitda 2011e
Shell Refining Co. 9.85 814 7.86 7.52 -Petronas Gas Berhad 9.55 5,234 9.56 9.10 8.92
PetroChina Co Ltd 6.89 301 8.24 7.11 5.72
IRPC PCL (Thailand) 2.76 1,519 7.34 6.26 4.56Median 8.05 7.31 5.72Source: Bloomberg
A valuation of VND
8 025 per share based on
EV/Ebitda ratio vs…
…VND 15 232 per share
via P/Book ratio
Peer Comparison (P/Book)Company Name P/BookShell Refining Co Federation of Malaysia Bhd 1.54
IRPC PCL (Thailand) 2.43PetroChina Co Ltd 1.38
Petronas Berhad 0.79
Median 1.46Source: Bloomberg
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The second is BP London, which is an oil and petrochemicals company. The company explores
oil and natural gas, produces, refines, markets and supplies petroleum products. The company
also generates solar energy, manufactures and markets chemicals.
The next one is ConocoPhillips, an international, integrated energy company which operates in
several business segments. The company explores for and produces petroleum and refines,
markets, supplies and transports petroleum. The company also gathers and processes natural gas
and produces and distributes chemicals and plastics.
Total Gabon is the last one in the set of peer comparison “international players”. Total Gabon is
from France. The company explores for, produces and sells crude oil and natural gas. The
company’s sole operation is located in Gabon, Central Africa. The company has no subsidiaries
but does have a large investment program with companies based in Gabon.
Through this set, the share price will reach only VND 500. We think that this peer is not relevant
as 1/the player are too big compare with ASP, 2/some of them are suffering from special
situations like Gazprom (conflict with Ukraine and difficult environment on the Russian stock
market / Total Gabon has a thin liquidity as the free float is limited at less than 15%) and 3/the
key ones are facing short positions on the stock market due to the oil weakness. According to
these different arguments, we don’t apply this valuation multiple to ASP share.
Sector-based transactions
International Gas transactions (inEUR m)
Target Bidder Country Date Price EV P/Sales P/Ebitda
P/
Ebit PE EV/S
EV/E
bitda
EV/
Ebit PE
Gas Natural Mexico SA Sinca Inbursa Mexico 22/09/2008 328 328 - - - - - - - -
Caythorpe Gas Storage Centrica UK 22/09/2008 89 89 - - - - - - - -
Union Fenosa SA Gas Natural SDG Spain 31/07/2008 16,754 22,839 3.8 11.1 15.6 17 2.7 9 10.3 13
Distrigas and Co Fluxys SA Belgium 30/06/2008 958 958 4.9 - - - 4.9 - - -
Europa Mil D.O.O. Lukoil Europe oldings Croatia 30/04/2008 40 40 - - - - - - - -
Petrol AD Sofia Lukoil Bulgaria Bulgaria 24/04/2008 237 237 - - - - - - - -
Favorite Markets Mapco Express USA 27/08/2007 50 50 - - - - - - - -Shell Gas Amerigas Partner USA 30/04/2007 - - - - - - - - - -
Gasnalsa SA Naturgas Energia
Groupo SA Spain 9/9/2006 45 45 3.2 8.2 - - 3.2 8.2 - -
Bilbogas SA Naturgas Energia
Groupo SA Spain 3/5/2006 35 70 - - - - 6.4 - - -
Median 3.8 9.7 15.6 17.0 4.1 8.6 10.3 13.0
Average 4.0 9.7 15.6 17.0 4.3 8.6 10.3 13.0Source: Mergermarket.com
If we apply the same method as for the peer comparison, i.e. applying only EV/Ebitda multiple
(median), we obtain a share price of VND 9 262 (USD 0.54).
Peer Comparison
Company Name Last PriceMarket
capEV/Ebitda
2009eEV/Ebitda
2010eEV/Ebitda
2011eGazprom 4.10 100,612 2.65 3.70 3.64BP London 448.5 123,720 4.50 3.57 3.13
ConocoPhilips 40.17 61,149 4.75 3.42 3.01Total Gabon 220 1,280 2.28 1.85 1.35
Median 3.57 1.85 1.35Source Jaccar
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Conclusion
As a result, taking the regional peer comparison and the sector-based transaction methods shown
above, and using a 15% country discount on the price, we arrive at a target price of VND 7 872
(USD 0.65). Also, we keep our Reduce recommendation.
Valuation per share summary
VND
VND (in.
discount) USDRegional peer comparison (EV/Ebitda) 8 025 6 821 0.39
Regional peer comparison (P/Book) 15 232 12 947 0.73
Sector-based transactions 9 262 7 872 0.65
Median 9 262 7 872 0.65Source: Jaccar
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Income Statement (VND bn) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009e 2010e 2011eSales 76 166 347 1,265 1,435 1,296 1,607 1,844
% of growth - 119% 109% 265% 13% -10% 24% 15%
Price (%) 0% -173,898% -3% 40% 22% -2% -1% 0%
Volume (%) 0% 174,018% 112% 225% -9% -5% 25% 15%
Organic growth (%) 0% 119% 109% 265% 13% -10% 24% 15%
External growth (%) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other income 0 0 0 (1) (6) 0 0 0
Total Sales 76 166 347 1,264 1,435 1,296 1,607 1,844
Change in inventories 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS 73 155 335 1,205 1,304 1,219 1,510 1,733
Gross Income 3 10 11 59 125 78 96 111
% of growth - 255% 10% 418% 111% -38% 24% 15%
Other external costs 1 2 2 27 50 23 27 31
Taxes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Personnel costs 0 1 1 17 21 13 16 18
EBITDA 2 8 8 14 54 42 53 61
% of growth - 353% 4% 77% 273% -21% 26% 15%
Depreciation 0 0 0 4 13 5 5 6
Reported provisions 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other incomes and charges 0 0 0 24 7 5 5 6
EBIT 2 8 8 34 49 43 53 50
% of growth - 352% 5% 335% 42% -12% 25% -6%
Interest income 0 0 1 3 4 0 0 0
Interest expenses 0 2 6 8 20 15 15 16
Interest balance (0) (1) (5) (5) (16) (15) (15) (15)
Pretax Income 1 6 3 29 32 28 38 35
% of growth - 380% -55% 962% 13% -15% 38% -9%
Income taxes 0 1 0 7 10 3 5 6
Tax rate 30% 22% 4% 26% 29% 13% 13% 16%
Minority interest 0 0 0 4 6 3 3 3
Associate income - - - - - - - -
Net income before extraordinary items 1 5 2 17 17 21 30 26
% of growth - 435% -47% 578% 2% 23% 43% -15%
Extraordinary items - - - - 0 (9) (9) (9)
Net Income 1 5 2 17 17 12 22 17
% of growth - 435% -47% 578% 2% -28% 73% -21%
Division breakdown / Sales (% of growth)
LPG Selling - - 147% 295% 10% -9% 22% 12%Shipping Servise - - 8% 33% 24% 28% 46% 0%
Others - - -94% 31% -100% high 41% 0%
Geographical breakdown / Sales (% of growth)
Viet Nam - - 109% 265% 13% -10% 24% 15%
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
Cash Flow Statement (VND bn) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009e 2010e 2011eNet Income 1 5 2 17 17 12 22 17
Depreciation and amortization 0 0 0 14 13 5 5 6
Capital gains/losses on asset disposals 0 0 0 (14) (6) (6) 0 0
Others 0 0 0 19 11 0 0 0
Cash Flow from Operations - Gross 0 0 0 35 34 11 27 23
Net change in operating assets & liabs 0 0 0 (56) 59 1 (8) (6)
Cash Flow from Operations - Net (4) (3) 60 (21) (24) 10 19 17
Gross CAPEX 34 62 37 40 11 149 30 5Net CAPEX 34 23 33 27 (3) 116 (22) (42)
Money spent on acquisitions 0 21 16 145 (0) 0 0 0
Cash received from divestment 0 (0) (1) (1) 4 0 0 0
Net financial investment 0 21 15 144 4 0 0 0
Dividends paid 0 0 9 3 17 12 12 10
Dividends received 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Others (1) 3 24 (36) 23 17 (4) 16
FCF (36) (50) (21) (159) (64) (135) 32 33
Increase in shareholder equity 24 33 11 181 0 40 0 0
Excess Cash Flow (13) (17) (9) 22 (64) (95) 32 33
Change in long term debt 14 18 16 24 8 95 (32) (44)
Foreign exchange rate effect - - 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net Increase (Decrease) Cash & Equivs 2 0 7 46 (56) 0 0 (11)
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Balance Sheet (VND bn) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009e 2010e 2011e
Gross tangible fixed assets 17 41 60 119 105 221 251 256
Accumulated depreciation tangibles 1 5 11 30 31 41 41 41
Tangible Fixed Assets 16 36 49 89 74 183 228 251
% of growth - 131% 34% 83% -17% 147% 25% 10%
Gross intangible fixed assets 0 0 0 101 14 14 14 14
Accumulated depreciation intangibles 0 0 0 0 0 9 18 26
Intangible Fixed Assets 0 0 0 101 14 5 (4) (13)of which goodwill 0 0 0 88 79 70 61 53
Long Term Investments - - - - - - - -
% of growth - - - - - - - -
Construction work in progress 0 0 0 0 0 3 19 36
Long term deposit 10 0 0 0 0 0 3 3
Long term prepaid expenses - - - - - - - -
Long term assets 6 11 12 185 310 329 288 320
Total Financial Fixed Assets 10 0 0 0 0 0 3 3
% of growth - -96% n/m n/m -52% 611% 889% 5%
Fixed Assets 32 47 61 375 397 518 515 561
% of growth - 46% 29% 513% 6% 30% -0% 9%
Inventories 0 1 1 14 5 5 6 7
Trade debtors 15 29 44 104 89 81 100 115
Prepayments 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Provisions - - - - - - - -Other debtors 1 3 15 24 16 15 18 21
Cash Bank 2 2 9 67 37 15 15 15
Marketable securities 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Accruals and deferrals - - - - - 69 50 0
Current Assets 18 35 69 210 147 185 189 158
% of growth - 92% 100% 203% -30% 25% 2% -17%
Shareholders Equity 25 36 33 233 229 269 279 297
% of growth - 41% -7% 608% -2% 18% 3% 7%
Minority interest 0 6 11 31 27 37 30 30
Discretionary provisions 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Bonus and welfare funds 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2
Training funds - - - - - - - -
Fund for board of management - - - - - - - -
Other funds 0 0 0 - - - - -Provisions - total 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2
Debt - long term 0 20 10 4 59 154 122 78
Debt - short term 14 12 38 99 107 107 107 58
Debts 14 32 49 103 166 261 229 136
% of growth - 127% 51% 111% 61% 58% -12% -41%
Accounts payable 10 6 32 131 133 125 154 177
Other current liabilities 1 2 6 86 10 9 11 13
Accruals and deferrals - - - - - - - 64
Total Liabilities 50 82 131 585 567 702 705 719
Treasury shares - - - - - - - -
Working capital 5 25 23 (75) (33) (34) (42) (48)
% of growth - 359% -9% n/m n/m n/m n/m n/m
Tangible Fixed Assets 16 36 49 89 74 183 228 251
Average Capital Employed 38 72 84 300 365 484 473 513
Off-Balance Sheet - - - - - - - -
Off-balance lease liabilities 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Off-balance rental liabilities 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Others Off-balance liabilities 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Valuation (x) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009e 2010e 2011eEV/Sales - - - - 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2
EV/EBITDA - - - - 4.1 10.9 8.2 5.6
EV/EBIT - - - - 4.5 10.8 8.2 6.9
PE - - - - 6.8 12.0 8.4 9.8
PEG - - - - - 76% -30% 17%
P/Book - - - - 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.9
Dividend yield (%) - - - - 15% 5% 5% 4%
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Per Share Data (k VND) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009e 2010e 2011eShares outstanding (millions) - - 0 13 13 25 25 25
Number of share fully diluted (millions) - - - 9 13 25 25 25
EPS - Basic - Before extras - - - 1 1 1 1 1
EPS - Basic - After extras - - - 1 1 1 1 1
EPS - Diluted - Before extras - - - - - - - -
EPS - Diluted - After extras - - - - - - - -
Latest price - - - - 9.2 10.3 10.3 10.3High price - - - - 26.1 11.2 - -
Low price - - - - 6.3 7.0 - -
Average price - - - - 9.3 10.3 10.3 10.3
Dividend per share - - - 0 1 1 1 0
Book value per share - - - 18 18 11 11 12
Cash Flow from Oper Per Share - Gross - - - 3 3 0 1 1
Cash Flow from Oper Per Share - Net - - - (2) (2) 0 1 1
Free Cash Flow Per Share - - - (13) (5) (5) 1 1
Profitability Ratios (%) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009e 2010e 2011eGross Margin 4% 6% 3% 5% 9% 6% 6% 6%
EBITDA Margin 2% 5% 2% 1% 4% 3% 3% 3%
Operating Margin 2% 5% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Net Margin 1% 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Division breakdown / Margins
EBITDA Margin
LPG Selling - 92% 57% 76% 48% 93% 92% 90%
Shipping Servise - 8% 43% 23% 16% 6% 8% 10%
Others - 0% -0% 1% 35% 0% 0% 0%
Operating Margin
LPG Selling - - - - - - - -
Shipping Servise - - - - - - - -
Others - - - - - - - -
Net Margin
LPG Selling - - - - - - - -
Shipping Servise - - - - - - - -
Others - - - - - - - -
Geographical breakdown / Margins
EBITDA Margin Viet Nam - 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
Operating Margin
Viet Nam - 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
Net Margin
Viet Nam - 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
Solvability & Efficiency Ratios (%) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009e 2010e 2011eROE 4% 13% 8% 9% 10% 6% 9% 7%
ROCE 3% 9% 9% 7% 9% 7% 10% 8%
Gearing 51% 86% 121% 15% 56% 91% 77% 40%
Equity / Total Assets 50% 43% 25% 40% 40% 38% 40% 41%
Pay-out Ratio - 0% 187% 135% 102% 72% 99% 46%
Interest cover 3.9 4.8 1.3 1.7 2.7 2.7 3.5 3.9
Inventories (nb of days) 0.0 2.6 1.3 4.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
Trade debtors (nb of days) 72.4 62.2 45.5 29.6 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4
Accounts payable (nb of days) 49.9 13.0 33.0 37.4 33.5 34.6 34.6 34.6
Working capital (nb of days) 22.5 51.8 13.9 (3.8) (9.8) (11.0) (11.0) (11.0)
Number of employees (FTE's) - - - - - - - -
Sales / Employee - - - - - - - -
EBIT / Employee - - - - - - - -
Salary / Employee - - - - - - - -
Bonus / Personnel costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
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Income Statement (USD m) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009e 2010e 2011eSales 4.53 9.95 20.81 75.90 86.10 77.78 96.39 110.64
% of growth - 119% 109% 265% 13% -10% 24% 15%
Price (%) 0% -173,898% -3% 40% 22% -2% -1% 0%
Volume (%) 0% 174,018% 112% 225% -9% -5% 25% 15%
Organic growth (%) 0% 119% 109% 265% 13% -10% 24% 15%
External growth (%) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other income 0.00 0.00 0.00 (0.05) (0.35) 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total Sales 4.53 9.95 20.81 75.85 86.10 77.78 96.39 110.64
Change in inventories 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
COGS 4.36 9.32 20.13 72.30 78.25 73.12 90.61 104.00
Gross Income 0.18 0.62 0.68 3.55 7.49 4.67 5.78 6.64
% of growth - 255% 10% 418% 111% -38% 24% 15%
Other external costs 0.05 0.11 0.13 1.64 2.97 1.35 1.62 1.86
Taxes 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Personnel costs 0.02 0.05 0.07 1.04 1.28 0.77 0.95 1.10
EBITDA 0.10 0.47 0.49 0.87 3.24 2.54 3.21 3.68
% of growth - 353% 4% 77% 273% -21% 26% 15%
Depreciation 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.23 0.75 0.28 0.32 0.37
Reported provisions 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Other incomes and charges 0.00 0.00 0.01 1.42 0.43 0.30 0.30 0.33
EBIT 0.10 0.45 0.47 2.05 2.91 2.56 3.19 2.99
% of growth - 352% 5% 335% 42% -12% 25% -6%
Interest income 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.17 0.24 0.03 0.03 0.03
Interest expenses 0.03 0.10 0.38 0.50 1.21 0.93 0.93 0.94
Interest balance (0.02) (0.09) (0.31) (0.33) (0.97) (0.90) (0.90) (0.91)
Pretax Income 0.08 0.36 0.16 1.73 1.95 1.66 2.29 2.08
% of growth - 380% -55% 962% 13% -15% 38% -9%
Income taxes 0.02 0.08 0.01 0.44 0.57 0.21 0.29 0.34
Tax rate 30% 22% 4% 26% 29% 13% 13% 16%
Minority interest 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.27 0.34 0.18 0.18 0.18
Associate income - - - - - - - -
Net income before extraordinary items 0.05 0.28 0.15 1.01 1.04 1.28 1.82 1.56
% of growth - 435% -47% 578% 2% 23% 43% -15%
Extraordinary items - - - - 0.00 (0.53) (0.53) (0.53)
Net Income 0.05 0.28 0.15 1.01 1.04 0.75 1.30 1.03
% of growth - 435% -47% 578% 2% -28% 73% -21%
Division breakdown / Sales (% of growth)
LPG Selling - - 147% 295% 10% -9% 22% 12%Shipping Servise - - 8% 33% 24% 28% 46% 0%
Others - - -94% 31% -100% high 41% 0%
Geographical breakdown / Sales (% of growth)
Viet Nam - - 109% 265% 13% -10% 24% 15%
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
Cash Flow Statement (USD m) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009e 2010e 2011eNet Income 0.05 0.28 0.15 1.01 1.04 0.75 1.30 1.03
Depreciation and amortization 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.82 0.75 0.28 0.32 0.37
Capital gains/losses on asset disposals 0.00 0.00 0.00 (0.86) (0.38) (0.38) 0.00 0.00
Others 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.13 0.64 0.00 0.00 0.00
Cash Flow from Operations - Gross 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.10 2.05 0.65 1.62 1.40
Net change in operating assets & liabs 0.00 0.00 0.00 (3.34) 3.52 0.08 (0.49) (0.37)
Cash Flow from Operations - Net (0.22) (0.17) 3.62 (1.24) (1.47) 0.58 1.13 1.02
Gross CAPEX 2.01 3.75 2.21 2.39 0.69 8.92 1.80 0.30Net CAPEX 2.01 1.37 2.01 1.63 (0.20) 6.96 (1.29) (2.49)
Money spent on acquisitions 0.00 1.26 0.99 8.68 (0.03) 0.00 0.00 0.00
Cash received from divestment 0.00 (0.00) (0.09) (0.04) 0.24 0.00 0.00 0.00
Net financial investment 0.00 1.26 0.90 8.65 0.22 0.00 0.00 0.00
Dividends paid 0.00 0.00 0.53 0.20 1.03 0.74 0.74 0.59
Dividends received 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Others (0.05) 0.20 1.42 (2.17) 1.36 0.99 (0.23) 0.94
FCF (2.19) (3.00) (1.24) (9.54) (3.87) (8.12) 1.91 1.99
Increase in shareholder equity 1.43 1.97 0.69 10.89 0.00 2.40 0.00 0.00
Excess Cash Flow (0.76) (1.03) (0.56) 1.34 (3.87) (5.72) 1.91 1.99
Change in long term debt 0.86 1.06 0.98 1.44 0.50 5.72 (1.91) (2.65)
Foreign exchange rate effect - - 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Net Increase (Decrease) Cash & Equivs 0.10 0.02 0.43 2.78 (3.37) 0.00 0.00 (0.66)
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Balance Sheet (USD m) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009e 2010e 2011eGross tangible fixed assets 1.01 2.47 3.58 7.16 6.29 13.25 15.05 15.35
Accumulated depreciation tangibles 0.06 0.28 0.66 1.81 1.85 2.43 2.48 2.46
Tangible Fixed Assets 0.95 2.19 2.92 5.35 4.45 10.99 13.69 15.06
% of growth - 131% 34% 83% -17% 147% 25% 10%
Gross intangible fixed assets 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.09 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83
Accumulated depreciation intangibles 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.54 1.06 1.59
Intangible Fixed Assets 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.09 0.82 0.29 (0.23) (0.76)of which goodwill 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.26 4.73 4.21 3.68 3.15
Long Term Investments - - - - - - - -
% of growth - - - - - - - -
Construction work in progress 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.17 1.12 2.17
Long term deposit 0.62 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.18 0.19
Long term prepaid expenses - - - - - - - -
Long term assets 0.38 0.63 0.75 11.08 18.57 19.76 17.29 19.19
Total Financial Fixed Assets 0.62 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.18 0.19
% of growth - -96% n/m n/m -52% 611% 889% 5%
Fixed Assets 1.95 2.84 3.67 22.52 23.84 31.06 30.93 33.69
% of growth - 46% 29% 513% 6% 30% -0% 9%
Inventories 0.00 0.07 0.08 0.86 0.31 0.28 0.34 0.40
Trade debtors 0.91 1.72 2.63 6.23 5.35 4.83 5.99 6.87
Prepayments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Provisions - - - - - - - -Other debtors 0.07 0.17 0.90 1.44 0.98 0.88 1.09 1.25
Cash Bank 0.10 0.12 0.55 4.05 2.22 0.93 0.93 0.93
Marketable securities 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Accruals and deferrals - - - - - 4.17 3.00 0.00
Current Assets 1.08 2.08 4.16 12.58 8.85 11.09 11.36 9.45
% of growth - 92% 100% 203% -30% 25% 2% -17%
Shareholders Equity 1.51 2.13 1.97 13.96 13.75 16.16 16.71 17.81
% of growth - 41% -7% 608% -2% 18% 3% 7%
Minority interest 0.00 0.37 0.67 1.87 1.64 2.23 1.80 1.80
Discretionary provisions 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Bonus and welfare funds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.11
Training funds - - - - - - - -
Fund for board of management - - - - - - - -
Other funds 0.00 0.00 0.00 - - - - -Provisions - total 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.11
Debt - long term 0.00 1.23 0.62 0.26 3.53 9.25 7.34 4.69
Debt - short term 0.86 0.72 2.31 5.92 6.41 6.41 6.41 3.45
Debts 0.86 1.95 2.93 6.18 9.94 15.66 13.75 8.14
% of growth - 127% 51% 111% 61% 58% -12% -41%
Accounts payable 0.63 0.36 1.91 7.88 8.00 7.48 9.27 10.64
Other current liabilities 0.03 0.11 0.35 5.17 0.59 0.55 0.68 0.78
Accruals and deferrals - - - - - - - 3.85
Total Liabilities 3.03 4.92 7.83 35.10 33.99 42.15 42.28 43.14
Treasury shares - - - - - - - -
Working capital 0.32 1.49 1.36 (4.53) (1.96) (2.03) (2.52) (2.89)
% of growth - 359% -9% n/m n/m n/m n/m n/m
Tangible Fixed Assets 0.95 2.19 2.92 5.35 4.45 10.99 13.69 15.06
Average Capital Employed 2.27 4.33 5.03 17.99 21.88 29.03 28.41 30.79
Off-Balance Sheet - - - - - - - -
Off-balance lease liabilities 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Off-balance rental liabilities 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Others Off-balance liabilities 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Valuation (x) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009e 2010e 2011eEV/Sales - - - - 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2
EV/EBITDA - - - - 4.1 10.9 8.2 5.6
EV/EBIT - - - - 4.5 10.8 8.2 6.9
PE - - - - 6.8 12.0 8.4 9.8
PEG - - - - - 76% -30% 17%
P/Book - - - - 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.9
Dividend yield (%) - - - - 15% 5% 5% 4%
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Per Share Data (USD) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009e 2010e 2011eShares outstanding (millions) - - 0.00 12.60 12.60 24.70 24.70 24.70
Number of share fully diluted (millions) - - - 9.25 12.60 24.70 24.70 24.70
EPS - Basic - Before extras - - - 0.08 0.08 0.05 0.07 0.06
EPS - Basic - After extras - - - 0.08 0.08 0.03 0.05 0.04
EPS - Diluted - Before extras - - - - - - - -
EPS - Diluted - After extras - - - - - - - -
Latest price - - - - 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6High price - - - - 1.6 0.7 - -
Low price - - - - 0.4 0.4 - -
Average price - - - - 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Dividend per share - - - 0.02 0.08 0.03 0.03 0.02
Book value per share - - - 1.11 1.09 0.65 0.68 0.72
Cash Flow from Oper Per Share - Gross - - - 0.17 0.16 0.03 0.07 0.06
Cash Flow from Oper Per Share - Net - - - (0.10) (0.12) 0.02 0.05 0.04
Free Cash Flow Per Share - - - (0.76) (0.31) (0.33) 0.08 0.08
Profitability Ratios (%) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009e 2010e 2011eGross Margin 4% 6% 3% 5% 9% 6% 6% 6%
EBITDA Margin 2% 5% 2% 1% 4% 3% 3% 3%
Operating Margin 2% 5% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Net Margin 1% 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Division breakdown / Margins
EBITDA Margin
LPG Selling - 92% 57% 76% 48% 93% 92% 90%
Shipping Servise - 8% 43% 23% 16% 6% 8% 10%
Others - 0% -0% 1% 35% 0% 0% 0%
Operating Margin
LPG Selling - - - - - - - -
Shipping Servise - - - - - - - -
Others - - - - - - - -
Net Margin
LPG Selling - - - - - - - -
Shipping Servise - - - - - - - -
Others - - - - - - - -
Geographical breakdown / Margins
EBITDA Margin Viet Nam - 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
Operating Margin
Viet Nam - 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
Net Margin
Viet Nam - 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
Solvability & Efficiency Ratios (%) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009e 2010e 2011eROE 4% 13% 8% 9% 10% 6% 9% 7%
ROCE 3% 9% 9% 7% 9% 7% 10% 8%
Gearing 51% 86% 121% 15% 56% 91% 77% 40%
Equity / Total Assets 50% 43% 25% 40% 40% 38% 40% 41%
Pay-out Ratio - 0% 187% 135% 102% 72% 99% 46%
Interest cover 3.9 4.8 1.3 1.7 2.7 2.7 3.5 3.9
Inventories (nb of days) 0.0 2.6 1.3 4.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
Trade debtors (nb of days) 72.4 62.2 45.5 29.6 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4
Accounts payable (nb of days) 49.9 13.0 33.0 37.4 33.5 34.6 34.6 34.6
Working capital (nb of days) 22.5 51.8 13.9 (3.8) (9.8) (11.0) (11.0) (11.0)
Number of employees (FTE's) - - - - - - - -
Sales / Employee - - - - - - - -
EBIT / Employee - - - - - - - -
Salary / Employee - - - - - - - -
Bonus / Personnel costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
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Price Performance - An Pha S.G. Petrol JSC
Analyst Certification
I, Le Mai Thuy Linh, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personalviews about the subject sector(s) and subject company (ies). The compensation of the analyst who prepared thisreport is determined exclusively by research management and senior management.
Important Disclosures
This report has been prepared by Jaccar Investment Managers (“JACCAR”). This document is confidential and isintended solely for the information of the person to which it has been delivered. It is not to be reproduced ortransmitted, in whole or in part, by any means, to third parties without the written prior consent of JACCAR.
Information contained herein is not intended to be a complete statement or summary of the securities, markets ordevelopments referred to in the report. JACCAR does not undertake that investors will obtain profits nor acceptany liability for any investment losses. Investments involve risks and investors should exercise prudence in makingtheir investment decisions. Prior to entering into any proposed transaction you are advised to engage in your owntax, accounting, regulatory, legal or other professionals as you deem necessary. The report should not beregarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment. Any opinions expressed in this reportare subject to change without notice.
Research will initiate, update and cease coverage solely at the discretion of JACCAR. The analysis containedherein is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results. Theanalyst(s) responsible for the preparation of this report may interact with trading desk personnel, sales personneland other interested parties for the purpose of gathering, synthesizing and interpreting market information.JACCAR is under no obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein.
Neither JACCAR nor any of directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising outof the use of all or any part of this report.
4,0006,0008,000
10,00012,00014,00016,000
18,00020,00022,00024,00026,00028,000
Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09
BUY ACCUMULATE REDUCE SELL TARGET PRICE
Rating History
Date Rating
23. Jan 09 REDUCE
Distribution of Ratings
Investment Rating Distribution: Global Group
Count Percent
BUY 5 25%
ACCUMULATE 5 25%
REDUCE 8 40%
SELL 2 10%
Investment Rating Distribution: Oil & Gas
Count Percent
BUY 5 25%
ACCUMULATE 5 25%
REDUCE 8 40%SELL 2 10%
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JACCAR Ratings and Valuation Methodology
Company Rating Definition (within a 12 month period)
BUY: Expected to outperform the market by at least 15% or moreACCUMULATE: Expected to outperform the market by 5%REDUCE: Expected to perform in line with the market
SELL: Expected to underperform the market by at least 10%
Valuation Methodology
The target price are based on several methods which include, but not restricted to analyses of market risks, growthrate, revenue stream, DCF (discounted cash flows), EBITDA, Net attributable profit, FCF (free cash flows),EV/SALES, EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT, PE, P/CF, P/Book, ROE (Return on Equity), NAV (Net Asset Value), DividendReturns and SOP (sum of the parts).
RiskPast performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adverselyaffect the value, price or income of any security or related instrument mentioned in this report. For investment
advice, trade execution or other enquiries, clients should contact their local sales representative .
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