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ANewEthicforHumankind
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ANewEthic
for
Humankind
Searchingforsolutions
inatroubledworld
FredG.Thompson
FuturescanConsulting
March2009
ANewEthicforHumankind
2
Allrightsreserved
CopyrightMarch2009FredG.ThompsonPublishedbyFuturescanConsulting
Ottawa,Canada
PrintedinCanada
ISBNNo.978-0-9696624-4-0
ANewEthicforHumankind
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TableofContents
Page
Introduction
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Chapter1-TheCassandras
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Chapter2-Population
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Chapter3-EconomicGrowth
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Chapter4-GlobalWarming
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Chapter5-Blockages
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Chapter6-TheLawsofChange
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Chapter7-GlobalManifesto
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Chapter8-SocialInventions
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Chapter9-Communities
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Chapter10-OtherWaysto
theFuture
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Chapter11-PersonalResponses
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Chapter12-Summingitallup
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"Itiswisetolookahead,butitisdifficulttolookfurtheraheadthanyoucansee."
WinstonChurchill
ANewEthicforHumankind
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Introduction
Thepurposeofthisbookistoshowthatinviewoftheincreasingpopulation,energyshifts,resourceconsumptionandpollution,thecreationofasustainableworldwillneedmassivechangeinhumanattitudesandactions,infactanewethicorhumankind.The21stcenturyemergedwithagraduallyincreasingpublicawarenessthattheworldwasenteringatroublingageandwehadbetterpayattentionifwewantedtobeassuredofasustainablefuture.Itwaspointedoutasearlyas1972byDennisandDonellaMeadowsthatthereareLimitstoGrowth1)andifwewretocontinueatthethencurrentrateofconsumptionoftheEarthsresourceswewouldnothaveasustainableworldinthelongerrangefuture.AurelioPeccei,
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thefounderoftheClubofRome
-whichcommissionedtheMeadowsbook-calledfora
NewEthicforMankindandthatiswhatthispresentdocumentpresentsasanewandignificantreality.TheGoldenAgeofGreece,fromaround500to300BC,wasbuiltontheenergyofslaves.WearenowinanotherGoldenAgeblessedwithenergyfromanabundantsupplyofoilandnaturalresources.Butthiswillofcoursenotbesointhelongerrangefuture.Warningsignsareabundantlyapparent.Wewillneedtoplannowforatruetransitiontoanewageandanewethic.EthicsisdefinedinWebstersdictionaryas:
"Thedisciplinedealingwithwhatisgoodandbadandwithmoraldutyandobligation",or
"Theprinciplesofconductgoverninganindividualoragroup."
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ItistheprinciplesofconductthathavetobechangedtocreatetheNewEthic.
Thetransitionfromagrowthsocietythatweinthedevelopedcountriespresentl
yenjoy,toonewithastableworldpopulationandeconomicsustainabilitycouldrequirethegreatestevolutionarychangeinthehistoryofhumankind.Thechangingconductandethicalbaseoftheworldspopulationmustindeedchange.Thisisnoexaggerationaswillbepointedoutinthetextthatfollows.Thisbookthereforewillshowwhythisissoandwhywemustbeginnowtofindwaystoeasethistransitionforthegoodofthefutureofthehumanspeciesonthisfiniteplanet.
AsMarshallMcLuhanwasheardtosay,ifasystemistoosuccessfulitwillfliponitself.Asoursocietiesgetmorecomplextheyareverylikelytodojustthat.AnotherwaytoexpressthisphenomenonistolookattheChaosTheory2).Bythisprocess,asystem(society,populationgrowth,etc.)willbeproceedingalongasmoothpathwhensomeperturbationisintroducedanditgoesintowilddis
array,orchaos.
TheQueuingTheorycanalsobedescribedasusefultounderstandhowsystemscancollapse.Takeforexamplealargemetropolitancitythatdependsonconstantdeliveryofsuppliesbeyonditsborderstofeeditself.Thinkofashortageoffuelavailabletothetransporttrucksandwhatcouldhappentothesupplyingofacitysneeds.TheQueuingTheorysaysthatasmallrestrictioninsupplycannotjustslowtheprocessbyasmallpercentage,butthatitcomestoacompletestop.Forexample,abusyhighwayisloadedtocapacitybutflowingrapidly.Thensomecarortruckslowsdowntolookatanaccidentatthesideoftheroad.Noobstructionisinthewayoftheflow,butithasbeenslowedbyaverysmallpercentageandtheANewEthicforHumankind
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wholesystemcomestoadeadstop.Similarly,thehousewifestocksuponsugarwhenitisannouncedthatsugarwillberationed.Result:nomoresugarontheshelvesandthesystemshutsdown.Whensuchaphenomenonoccurstosupplyingalargecity,itmaywellshutdown.Apowerblackoutisanexampleofsuchanoverloadedsystemandconsequentshutdown.Now,allthisistogiveaglimpseofwhatcouldhappenasresourcesworldwidegetinshortsupply.Theurgencythenisapparentandmustbedealtwithwellbeforeithappens.AnotherphenomenonofthefutureisthelifeboatprincipleorTriage.Inthiscasealifeboatisloadedwith
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eopleandothersintheseaareclamouringtoclimbin.Ifcompassionrulesandtheresidentsofthelifeboattrytoletthemin,thenmostlikelyallwillbelost.So,thefortunatefewmustbepreservedandtheothersletgo.Cruelitseems,butotherwiseallwillbelost.AllthisispartofthecontentofaNewEthicndmustbelearnedinthelongterminterestofasustainableplanetandindeedthehumanspecies.
In1995CharlotteWaterlowproducedthebookTheHingeofHistory3)Ittoldaboutthemega-changethatoccurredinWesternhistoryduetoashiftfromdependenceonGod,toexplainthethingswedontunderstand,tothenewdiscoveriesofscience.ItwastheRenaissanceorrebirth,orEnlightenmentforWesternsociety.Itwouldappearnowthattheyears2008-9representasimilarshiftinWesternthinkingthatisanequallymajorchange.Asecondhingeofhistory.Atthesametimeglobalizationhasarrived,acceleratedbythespeedofcommunications,informationandtransportation.Thisshiftisaccompaniedbyclimatechange,populationgrowth,increasingresourceconsumptionandbeginningtoseethe
limitstogrowth.
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ThefollowingChapterwillpresentthe
Cassandras4)ofthepastthathavewarnedusofthedirectionsthattheworldisging.Thiswillshowtheurgencyofre-structuringthecourseahead.REFERENCES
1)Meadows,DennisandDonella,LimitstoGrowthPotomacAssociates,Washington,D.C.,19722)Gleick,James,Chaos-MakingaNewScience,PenguinGroup,NewYork,N.Y.,1987(seeformulaonPage70of"Chaos")3)Waterlow,Charlotte,TheHingeofHistoryTheOneWorldTrust,GreatBritain,1995
4)seeChapter1thatfollows
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Chapter1
TheCassandras
Thischapterwilltellofanumberofpeoplewhowereconcernedaboutthewaytheworldwasandisunfoldinginitstracktothefuture.Theyarethe
Cassandrasforetellingthefuture.AccordingtoHomersIlliad,Cassandrawasabeafulyoungwoman,blessedwiththegiftofprophecybythegodApollo,whowasinfatuatedwithher.Unfortunately,becausesheshunnedApollo,atthelastminuteheaddedatwisttohergift.Cassandrawasdoomedtotellthetruth,butnever
tobebelieved.AsLauraFittonsaysinherinternetarticle:...wecalla
Cassandra
someonewhosetruewordsareignored,sinceCassandrasdoomwastopredictwhatothersrefusedtobelieve.
SomeoftheseCassandrasthatIhavefoundofinterestaredescribedbelow.
RachelCarson
OneoftheearlyCassandraswasRachelCarsonborninPennsylvaniain1907.Shewasawriter,scientistandecologistwhoworkedfortheU.S.FishandWildlife
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Serviceandothergovernmentagencies.Sheretiredfromthegovernmentin1952todevotefulltimetowriting.TwoofheroutstandingbookswereTheSeaAroundUs)in1951,andSilentSpring2)in1962.Thefirstbookisalyricalaccountofthebeautiesofthesea.HoweverinherSilentSpringbookin1962sheexposedthehazadsofthepesticideDDT,andeloquentlyquestionedhumanitysfaithintechnologicalprogressandhelpedsetthestagefortheenvironmentalmovement.Hereffortssucceededinmakingsignificantchangesandreductionsinthewidespreaduseofthispesticide.ANewEthicforHumankind
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Howeversincethattime,thebanningofDDThasbeenquestionedbecauseofthebenefitsitprovidesinthecontrolofmalaria.
JonasandJonathanSalk
Areportin1982totheUnitedNationsbyJonasSalkandhissonJonathan3)tookalookatpopulationgrowthoverthelongtermfutureandidentifiedtheperiodbeforethestartofthedeclineingrowthasEpochAandthatafterasEpochB.TheshiftfromEpochAtoEpochBwould,theysaid,requireatremendousshiftinworldattitudes,infactitwouldrequireanevolutionarychange.Itwould
requireattitudestochangefromoneofcompetitiontooneofcooperation.How,then,wouldsocietyandparticularlytheeconomicworlddealwiththat?Itwould
indeedrequireaNewEthicforhumankind.Aprofoundobservationforitstime.AlvinToffler
AbookthatcausedalotofpeopletobeintroducedtothefuturesmovementwasFutureShockbyAlvinToffler,publishedin19714)
Tofflerisessentiallyajournalist,writingformanywell-knownperiodicals,hasbeenaneditorofFortune,hastaughtsociologyofthefutureattheNewSchoolfrSocialResearch,andtheauthorofseveralbooksonsociopoliticaltopics.FutureShockwasarunawaybestsellerandagoodreadevenfortoday.Hedefinesfutureshockasthedistress,bothphysicalandpsychological,thatarisesfromanoveloadofthehumanorganismsphysicaladaptivesystemsanditsdecision-makingprocesses.Anotherwayofsayingthisisthatfutureshockisthereactiontotherap
idityofchange,inbothexperiencesandinformation.ANewEthicforHumankind
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WhatTofflermissedaboutthefutureisasnotableaswhatheincludes.Muchofwhatheforeseeshasindeedcometopassbutwhatofthosetopicshehasnotbeenabletoseefromhisperchinthe1970s.Foronethinghemakesonlyapassingreferencetoterrorismwhichissomuchonthemindsofpoliticiansandthegeneralpublictoday.AlongwiththisisthelackofreferencetotheriseandpowerofMuslimstatesandthepassionsoftribalism.Thephenomenonof,andthereforeheimpactof,theInternetandallitsramificationswasnotmentioned.Tofflersaysquiteabitaboutthefutureofcontrollingtheweather,evenintheglobalsense.Hedescribeshowsomeresearchershaveshownthelikelihoodofbeingabl
etoplantheweatherfordifferentglobalregionsandthepossiblecooperationofthevariousnationsinvolved.Instead,wehavethegrimrealityofhumansNOTbeingabletocontroltheweatherbutbeingthecontributortotheuncontrollableglobalwarmingthatendangersalllifeontheplanet.Quiteachange!Nowthatsgenuinefutureshock!
Whatinsomesenseistragic,isthattheendingstatementsofthebookarejustasrelevanttodayastheywerethen.Solittlerealprogresshasbeenmadeinthelast35years.Hereisaquotefromthelastfewpages:
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Ourfirstandmostpressingneedthereforeis,beforewecanbegintogentlyguideourevolutionarydestiny,beforewecanbuildahumanefuture,istohalttherunawayaccelerationthatissubjectingmultitudestothreatoffutureshock."AurelioPeccei-TheClubofRomeThereisnodoubtthatoneoftheearlyandmostinfluentialpersonstoalerttheworldtotheenvironmentalANewEthicforHumankind
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dangersaheadwasAurelioPeccei,founderoftheClubofRome.
AurelioPecceiwasanItalianindustrialist,formervice-presidentofFiatMotorswhoquitthecompanyinthe1960
stodevotefulltimetowhathecalled"theworldproblematique".IntheprocesshefoundedtheClubofRome,aninternationalgroupofdistinguishedbusinessmen,statesmenandscientists.OneoftheirearlyprojectswastocommissionProfessorDr.JayForresteroftheMassachusettsInstituteofTechnologytousetheirsystemsdynamicmodelto"studythelongtermcausesandconsequencesofgrowthinpopulation,industrialcapital,foodproduction,resourceconsumptionandpollution."5)ThisresultedinthepublicationofLimitstoGrowth6)in1972byprincipalauthorsDennisandDonellaMeadows.Theyconcludedthat:
"ifpresentgrowthtrendsinpopulation,industrialization,pollution,foodproductionandresourcedepletioncontinueunchanged,thelimitstogrowthonthisp
lanetwillbereachedsometimewithinthenext100years."
This,theyhastentoadd,isnotaforecast,butwhatwouldhappenifthepresenttrendscontinued.Inspiteofthecaveat,thereportcausedwidespreadandintensecriticism.ThiswasCassandrainspades!
TwentyyearslaterthesameprincipalauthorspublishedBeyondtheLimits7)toreviewprogressandnoteanysignificantchangesintrends.Hereiswhattheysaid.
"In1971weconcludedthatthephysicallimitstohumanuseofmaterialsandenergyweresomewheredecadesahead.In1991whenwelookedagainattheANewEthicforHumankind
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data,thecomputermodelandourownexperienceoftheworld,werealizedthatinspiteoftheworld
simprovedtechnology,thegreaterawareness,theenvironmentpolicies,manyresourceandpollutionflowshadgrownbeyondtheirsustainablelimits."Andtheycontinue:
"Thefuture,tobeviableatall,mustbeoneofdrawingback,easingdown,healing."Again,Cassandrahaddeclaredandwasnotbelieved!
Twelveyearsafterthat,againthesameauthorspublishedanupdateLimitstoGrowth-the30YearUpdate.8)InspiteofallthewarningsinBeyondtheLimitst
heauthorscannotshowanyimprovementintheworld
secologicalfootprint.Astheysay:
"ThepastdecadehasproducedmuchdatathatsupportsoursuggestioninBTL7)thattheworldisinovershootmode.Itnowappearsthattheglobalpercapitagrainproductionpeakedinthemid-1980
s."Thereisasimilarstoryforfishintheseaandgreenhousegasemissions.Theyseealackofpublicandpoliticalwilltoeffectthenecessarychanges.Inresponsetothequestiontheypose"Whatwillhappen?"theyrespond:
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"Theglobalchallengecanbesimplystated.Toreachsustainability,humanitymustincreasetheconsumptionlevelsoftheworld
spoorwhileatthesametimereducinghumanity
stotalecologicalfootprint."
Nosmalltask.BothpopulationandeconomicgrowthwillANewEthicforHumankind
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havetobedealtwithtoachieveanydegreeofsustainability.LesterBrown.
LesterBrownfoundedtheWorldwatchInstituteinWashingtonin1974.Itwasdevotedtoresearchonthefutureoftheworldinareassuchaspopulation,environment,energy,foodsupplythatwerecriticaltothefutureoftheworld.ThefirstofStateoftheWorld9)annualseriesofpublicationswasin1984andwasmadepossiblebythefinancialsupportoftheRockefellerBrothersFund.Itisinterestingtoseewhattopicsthefirstreportcoveredlookingbacksome25years.Herearesomechaptertitles:StabilizingPopulation
ReducingDependenceonOil
ProtectingForests
DevelopingRenewableEnergy
ReconsideringtheAutomobilesFuture
SecuringFoodSupplies
Thesetopicsarenotonlystillrelevantbuthavetakenonagreatersenseofurgency.Althoughalothasbeendoneovertheyearsintheseandrelatedissues,thelevelofpublicawarenessisnotyetsufficienttomovegovernmentsintoadequateaction.LesterBrownwasindeedaleaderinthiseffortandinthatsenseatrueCassandra.
TenyearslaterthetopicsthattheInstituteresearchedandpublished,bothasseparatedocumentsandintheannualStateoftheWorldhadbroadenedandinclud
edthese,amongothers;
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CarryingCapacity:EarthsBottomLineSafeguardingOceans
ReshapingthePowerIndustry
ReinventingTransport
FacingFoodInsecurity
TheWorldwatchInstitutealsobegantheannualpublicationofVitalSignsin1972describedas"TrendsthatareShapingourFuture"10).Trendscoveredaree.g.agricultural,energy,environmental,economic,transportation,andothers.Publicationsareinseverallanguagesanddistributedaroundtheworld.Theiroutputhasmade,andisstillmakingavaluablecontributiontowardEarthsstablesociety-ifindeedpeoplearelistening.In2001LesterBrownlefttheWorldwatchInstituteandfoundedtheEarthPolicyInstitutewithsimilarobjectives.TheInstitute,asdescribedintheirwebsite:www.earth-policy.org.isdedicatedtobuildingasustainablefutureaswellasprovidingaplanofhowtogetfromheretot
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here.LesterBrownisthePresidentoftheorganization.
WhenLesterBrownwasattendingafunctioninLondon,Ontarioin1979,IarrangedforhimtocometoOttawaandmeetwithPrivyCouncilstaffandbeinterviewedontheCBC.Creatingpublicawarenessissoimportant.
RonaldWright,JaredDiamond
Twomajorbookshaveappearedinthelastfewyearsthatdescribetheriseandfallofseparatecivilizationsthroughouthistory.TheonewasAShortHistoryofProgressbyRonaldWright11)andtheotherCollapsebyANewEthicforHumankind
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JaredDiamond12).Eachtoldoftheprosperingofearlysocietiesandtheireventualdeclineandcollapseduetotheconsumptionoflifesustainingresources.TheSumeriansintheperiodbetween3,000and2,000B.C.inventedthecity,thecorporation,irrigation,writing,accountingandlivedoffthelushareaofthedeltaoftheTigrisandEuphratesriversinwhatisnowIraq-andisnowdesert.Atitspeaktherewereadozencitystates,thelargestwasUrof50,000citizens.Theylived,asallcivilizationsdo,offtheiragriculturalresources.However,overtimetheyfullyexploitedthelifegivingagriculturalresourcesoftheareauntiltheynolongeryieldedthenecessaryfoodstuffsrequiredtosustaint
heirgrowingpopulation.Ittookathousandyearstoriseandeventuallyfall.
InasomewhatsimilarmannerthecivilizationsofancientRomeandtheIncasofSouthAmericaroseandeventuallydeclinedandvirtuallydisappeared.MostmodernofthesecivilizationsandasmallmicrocosmoftheothersweretheinhabitantsofEasterIslandofftheSouthAmericancoastinthePacific.Theygrewandconsumedtheirfruitoftheland,cutdownallthetrees,andeventuallyallbutafewresidentsdisappeared.EasterIslandwasdiscoveredbyaDutchfleetin1722andonlyafewoftheoriginalpopulationremained.EasterIslandisknownfortheenormousstonestatuestheinhabitantscraftedandleft,manyofwhichareintacttothisday.
Thenotsosubtlemessageofthesetwoparticularbooks,withtheirstoriesofa
ncientSumerandEasterIsland,isawarningtopresentdaypopulationsthatsuchafatemaybeoursifwedonotdealeffectivelywiththesameissuesofover-population,resourceconsumption,andallitimplies.
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JonathanWeiner
InhisbookTheNextOneHundredYears13)WeinerwriteseloquentlyoftherisingoccurrenceofCOinthe2
Earth
satmospheregoingbackasfarasvariousiceages.AnAmericanresearcherC.D.Keelingbeganin1958totakeairsamplesoftheCOfromaroundtheworldwitha2
passionthathasneverletup.
Heshowedacontentof315partspermillionofCO2whenhebeganhiswork,withupsanddownseversince,butwithanoverallannualaverageincreaseof1.5ppm.Althoughthebookwaspublishedin1990,itrepresentsapowerfulmessageforthefuture.IhavebeensoimpressedwiththeintenseresearchasreportedbyW
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einerthatIhaveincludedfurtherdiscussionintheChapteronGlobalWarming,whichsee.
GeorgeMonbiot
AnotherCassandraofnoteistheUKsciencejournalistGeorgeMonbiotwhowroteHeat,HowtoStopthePlanetfromBurningpublishedin200614)Heisconcernedthatwithrisingworldtemperaturesandtheconsequentmeltingofthepolaricefieldsandglaciers,theresultingriseinsealevelswillputindangermanyoftheworld
slargercities.Insomecasestheseurbancentreswillfaceabandonment.
Hedoestakecaretoshowsomedegreeofoptimismandhowsuchcanberealizedbutthedataprovidedmakethismoreofafantasythanreality.Tosaveourplanethesayswemustreducegreenhousegasesbysome90%by2030,andhethenquestionstherealityofsuchanachievement.HeendshisIntroductiontothebookwithawrytouchofhumour:"...Ihaveonelasthope:thatImightmakepeoplesodepressedaboutthestateoftheplanetthattheywillstayinbedallday,therebyreducingtheirconsumptionoffossilfuels."
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ThomasHomer-Dixon
Tobetterunderstandourowntimesandfuture,Homer-Dixon,aProfessorofPoliticalScienceattheUniversityofToronto,wenttoRometotrytounderstandwhythatancientempiredeclinedandcollapsed.Heandhisresearchersanalysedthetotalenergyrequiredtofeedandmaintainanationandeconomy.Heconcludedthatasasocietygrowsitbecomesmoreandmorecomplextothepointofeventualbreakdown.Hethenshowshowourpresentsocietyisgettingtothatpointofoverlycomplexsystemsleadingtocollapse.Auniqueapproach,describedinhisbookTheUpsideofDown.16)AlGore
Gore,aformerVice-PresidentandunsuccessfulcandidatefortheU.S.PresidencyistheclassicalmodernCassandra.He,withhispublicationandpresentationso
fAnInconvenientTruth,hashadapowerfulinfluenceonpublicopinion,world-wide.IhavedescribedmoreonthisinChapter4.
SothemanyCassandrashavespoken.Itwouldappearthatthetippingpointisabouttotakeplaceandwearenowbeginningtoexperiencethesecond"HingeofHistory"thefirstbeingtheRenaissanceofthe17thCenturyasdescribedbyCharlotteWaterlow.15).REFERENCES
1)Carson,Rachel,TheSeaAroundUs,OxfordUniversityPress,1951
2)Carson,Rachel,SilentSpring,HoughtonMifflin,Boston,1962
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3)Salk,JonasandJonathan,WorldPopulationandHumanValues,Harper&Row,NewYork,N.Y.1982
4)Toffler,AlvinFutureShock,BantamBooks,NewYork,N.Y.1971
5)fromthePrefacetoBeyondtheLimits7)6)Meadows,Dennis&Donella,LimitstoGrowthUniverseBooks,NewYork,1972
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7)Meadows,Dennis&Donella,BeyondtheLimitsChelseaGreenPublishing,Vermont,19928)Meadows,Dennis&Donella;Randers,Jorgen,LimitstoGrowth-a30YearUpdate,ChelseaGreenPublishing,Vermont,2004
9)StateoftheWorld,WorldwatchInstitute,Washington,D.C.,198410)"TrendsthatareShapingourFuture",VitalSigns,WorldwatchInstitute,Washington,D.C.197211)Wright,Ronald,AShortHistoryofProgress,HouseofAnansiPress,Inc.,Toronto,200412)Diamond,Jared,Collapse-HowSocietiesChoosetoFailorSucceed,PenguinGroup,NewYork,2005
13)Weiner,Jonathan,TheNextOneHundredYears,RandomCenturyPublishingGroupLtd.,London,UK,1990
14)Monbiot,George,Heat-HowtoStopthePlanetfromBurning,RandomHouseofCanadaLtd.,Toronto,2006
15)Waterlow,CharlotteHingeofHistory,TheOneWorldTrust,GreatBritain,1995
16)Homer-Dixon,Thomas,TheUpsideofDown-Catastrophe,Creativity,andtheRenewalofCivilization,AlfredA.KnopfCanada,Toronto,2006
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ChapterThree
Population
Itishardtospecifywhichisthemosturgentproblemofthegloballongrangefuture,theonethatifdealtwithsuccessfullywillmostimprovetheglobalfutureofhumankind.Isitpopulationcontrol,energysupply,economicgrowth,globalwarming,orwhat?ThesimpleansweristhatnooneoftheseisTHEmostimportant.Soletusdealwithpopulationgrowthfirst.Itissimplelogicthatthereisultimatelyalimittohowmanypeoplecanlivesustainablyonthisfinitepl
anet.InBritain,ThomasMalthusin1793publishedhispioneeringessayontheissuesinvolvedwitheverincreasingpopulationgrowthinhisFirstEssayonPopulation.Ithasbeentheclassicdocumentonthesubjectasitpointedoutthedangersofanover-populatedworld.Inithestatesthefundamentalprincipleofhisrevelationsthepopulationofmankindwilleventuallyoutstripmansabilitytosupplyhimselfwiththenecessitiesoflife.Thereasonforthisis,hestated;populatinincreasesinageometricratio,whilethemeansofsubsistenceincreaseinarithmeticratio.
ThecriticswerenumerousandalthoughMalthussawhimselfasarealist,thecritics,ashesaid,wereidealists.ThenwhatIfoundamusinginthebiographyofMalthus,wasthathewasbornintoafamilywitheightchildren!Soheoughttoknowaboutoverpopulation!
Themaximumthattheplanetcansustainwillbearrivedateitherbydesignorbydefault.Populationbydesigntakespublicawarenessandstrongpoliticalleadershiptosuccessfullylimitpopulationgrowth.WhereaspopulationlimitationbydefaultislettingNatureexercisethecontrolasshedoesintheanimalkingdom.ToomanyANewEthicforHumankind
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rabbitsandthefoxestakeoverandbringtheleveldowntothatwhichcanbesu
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stainedonthelandthatsupportsthem.IfweletNaturedecidewhatformofpopulationcontrolwillbeexercised,willitbedisease,plague,orhumanviolence?Ifwedontmanagepopulationgrowth,thentheworstofthesecouldindeedtakeplace.Intheshortterm,wegenerallyexercisecompassionandmakeeveryefforttosavelives.Moneybythebillionsgoestoaidthepoorandsufferinginvariouscountries.Organizationspleadforcontributionstosavethechildrenindevelopingcountrieswheretheyareindesperateneed.Butwhathappenswhenthesechildrengrowupandhavemorechildrenandthepopulationkeepsongrowing?Compassionisanaturalwaytogo,butifnotmanagedwellleadseventuallytoaburgeoningpopulationwithitsunplannedconsequences.
Whenpopulationreachesthesustainablemaximumthattheplanetcansupport,whatthenhappens?HereiswhereTriagemighthavetotakeplace..ThisiswhatIhavedescribedintheIntroductionasthelifeboateffect.Ifthelifeboatisalreadyfultocapacityandothersarescramblingtoclimbaboard,compassionsaysletthemin.Butthenallcoulddrown.Soyouhavetobebrutaltosavetheselectfew.Thesamethingoccursinthearmyhospitalwheninthedirestemergencyonlysomanycanbesaved.Thedoctorshavetoselectthosethathavethebestchancetosurviveandlettheothersgosothatatleastsomeormostcanlive.
Suchanapproachsuggestsabettersolutiontothepopulationproblemanditsmanagement.ItisnotwisetoleaveittoNatureandjustletithappen.Again,onecouldsaythatAIDSisNatureswaytocontrolpopulationinthepoorercountrieswherepopulationgrowthisalreadygreaterthaninthemoreprosperousANewE
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countries.WecantsaythattryingtocureAIDSiswrong,butwecanputproportionatelymoreefforttowardsdealingwiththesourceofpopulationgrowth.Someeffortsarecurrentlyputoneducatingthemenandwomenintheseareasandencouragingtheuseofcontraceptives.Thisistreatingtheproblematthesourceandmustbeencouraged.Compassioncannotbedenied,butpreventionatthesourceshouldtakeprioritywhereverpossible.Thereareotherproblemswithcurbingpopulationgrowth.Themostdramaticofthesebeingtheimpactofincreasingpopulationontheeconomyofacountry.Manyofthemoredevelopedcountrieshaveloworzeropopulationgrowthandasaconsequencearefacingademographictrendto
wardsanincreasinglyagingpopulation.Thismeanstherewillbelessyoungerpeopletosupplythelabourforceandprovidetheeconomicbasetosupportthesocialsecurityprograms.
Thepoliticalincentivethenistoincreasepopulation,byimmigrationorbyfertility,tostimulatetheeconomy.Sohowdoyoudealwithmaintainingastablepopulationgrowthandstillhaveahealthyeconomy?Catch22.Itwillrequirestartingwithchangingthebasicassumptionthatanagingpopulationwillinhibiteconomicgrowth.Toresolvethisdemographicimbalance,anewparadigmisrequired,andnewthinkingadopted.TheagingpopulationneednotrequirethesamesocialsupportasinthecurrentWesternassumptions.Theagingpopulationmustlooktobemoreself-sufficient.Thiswilltakesomethinkingandfurtherdevelopment,butitmayhavetooccurtomaintainaformofeconomicgrowthcompatiblewit
hthisshiftindemographicbalance.SlowingdownpopulationgrowthbyregulationhasbeentriedinsomecountriesasweseeinthefollowingANewEthicforHumankind
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section.
Populationlimitationbyplanning(design)isanalternateapproach.Whatmayinrealityhappenisthatpopulationislimitedbybothdefaultandplanning-som
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eofeach.Butletusdealherewiththeplanningaspects.Somecountrieshavetriedtocontrolpopulationgrowthbyregulationandothersbyeducation.
TheAncientGreekssawtheproblemsofincreasingpopulationintheirareasofhabitation.TheysetupcoloniesintheMediterraneanandBlackSeatoabsorbthisgrowth.Thisworkedforatimethenthecoloniesreachedtheircapacity.TheGreeksthentriedothermethodsoflimitingpopulation,suchasdelayingtheageofmarriage.ThesearethefirstknownrecordsofpopulationcontrolasreportedintheInternetWikipedia.
FamilyPlanning
FamilyPlanningbyvoluntarymethods,tocontrolormanagepopulationgrowthhasbeenpractisedformillennia.AsearchforfamilyplanningonGooglecomesupwith140millionreferences!Ididntcheckthemall!Butitwassurprisingtoseesomanyreferencestomethodsoflimitingpopulationgrowthinvariouscountriesaroundtheworld.Ihavenotmadethischapterafullacademicreportonfamilyplanningbuthavequotedafewinstancestogiveageneralideaofwhatisgoingoninpopulationcontrolbydesignorpurposefulaction.TheSierraClubhasareportontheInternetWhyEnvironmentalistsCareAboutFamilyPlanningAroundtheWorldsayingthatourenvironmentalsuccessesmaybeshort-livediftheydonotinclueeffortstoaddressglobalpopulationgrowth.AndtheygoontosayOneofthemoseffectivewaystoslowglobalpopulationgrowthistoinvestinfamilyplanningprograms.TheyANewEthicforHumankind
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reportthattheUnitedNationsPopulationFund(UNFPA)isactivein140countriestopromotefamilyplanningprograms.Encouragingnewsindeed.HowevertheynotethattheUnitedStatesundertheBushAdministrationhastakenstepstoblocksupportfortheUNFPAprogramsbecauseofpossiblerelationshipsoftheprogramstoabortionandcoercionparticularlyinChina.MargaretSangerwasamovingforceinNorthAmericaintheearlyyearsofthe20thcenturytowardsencouragingpublicawarenessandacceptanceoffamilyplanningandallitsimplications.Religiousandsocialconstraintspreventedageneralacceptanceofthesubjectinthoseyears.Herworkhasmadeastrongcontributiontotodaysopenpublicdiscussionsandacceptanceoftheissues.
Economicgrowthhasanimpactonreducingfamilysizeaspeoplemovefromthefarmtotheurbanenvironmentasisnowoccurringinmanycountriesaroundtheworld.
FamilyplanninginIran.
WikipediaontheInternetreportsthatbetween1980and1988,alargepopulationinIranwasviewedasacomparativeadvantage.Accordingly,theadministrationpushedprocreationtobolstertheranksofsoldiersforIslam,aimingforanarmyo20million.Thisledtoanannualpopulationgrowthrateofover3%.UNdatashowthatIranspopulationdoubledinjust20years,from27millionin1968to55millionin1988.Butsince2000therehavebeensignificantchangesmade;Iransp
opulationgrowthratedroppedfromanalltimehighof3.2%in1986tojust1.2%in2001.Thisisoneofthefastestdropseverrecorded.Inreducingitspopulationgrowthtothislevel,aratethatisonlyslightlyANewEthicforHumankind
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higherthanthatoftheUnitedStates,Iranhasemergedasamodelforothercountriesthatwanttolessentheriskofoverpopulation.
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In1993,Irandroppedcertainmaternitybenefitsforcoupleswhohadmorethanthreechildren.AccordingtotheBBC,Iranisbelievedtobetheonlycountryintheworldwheremenandwomenarerequiredtoattendclassesaboutcontraceptionbeforetheycanobtainamarriagelicense.
Inaddition,Iranhasmadebothcondomandcontraceptivepillswidelyavailable.ContraceptivepillsareavailableatpharmaciesacrossIran,andthegovernmentgivesawaycondomsathealthclinicsaroundthecountry.Pakistan
Pakistan,againasreportedinWikipedia,hashadsimilarexperienceinworkingwithfamilyplanning.Theadministrationwasconcernedthatthecountrywasgrowingsofasttheywouldrunoutoflandtofeedthemselves.Religiousandsocialcustomsmadetheintroductionoffamilyplanningpracticesdifficultorinmanylocalesprohibitive.However,theformationofaFamilyPlanningAssociation(FPA)wassetupin1953andworkbegun.Toshowhowdifficultitwastostart,hereisaquotefromtheInternet:
"Thecurtainofinvisibilitywasthickandmanywomencouldnotwork,gotoschool,orleavetheirhomeswithoutbeingaccompaniedbyamalerelativeeveniftheyneededtoseeadoctor.Butitwasnotaboutsheddingtheveil,itwasaboutrevitalizingeducation,providinglivelihoodskills,andimprovinghealthcare.
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HowevertheFPAcontinuedtheirworkandeventuallygotrecognizedbyreceivingfinancialandprogramsupportfromboththeU.N.andtheU.S.A.AndasshownontheInternetreport:
"TodaytheFamilyPlanningAssociationofPakistanisthelargestnon-governmentorganizationinthesocialsectorandalongsidethegovernmentisthekeyprovideroffamilyplanningservicesinPakistan.Ithas85communityworkunits,withover540servicesoutletsinallprovincesofthecountry."
Africa
FamilyPlanninginAfricaisgettingalotofattentionbecauseoftheAIDSpandemic.However,themanydifferentAfricancountries,thedensityofruralpopulation,religiounsandsuperstitionmakeanywellorganizedprogressdifficult.TheU.S.hasbeenactiveinprovidingsupport,bothfinancialandotherwise,intheinterestsofminimizingtheeffectofAIDSinthecontinent.OnereportfoundontheInternet,onthisissuesays:
"Ratherthanpreparingtomeetthischallenge,U.S.assistanceinfamilyplanninghasactuallydeclined.Since1995,U.S.internationalfundingforfamilyplanningservices,contraceptivesandrelatedprograms,whichservebothwomenandmeninmorethan50countries,hasfallenbymorethan$100million,a35percentreductionwhenadjustedforinflation."
India
FamilyPlanninginIndiahasbeenpractisedsinceANewEthicforHumankind
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the1950stocurbpopulationgrowth.Butoddlyenough,sincethattimethepopulationinIndiahasdoubled,from430,000,000in1960to1.014billionin2000.Atonetimeduringthatperiodthegovernmentimplementedsterilizationplansandrewardedthosethatparticipated.Neglectingtheencouragementandsupportoffa
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milyplanninginfavourofsterilizationisconsideredtobethecauseofthisincrease.
Individualsdidnotadoptthesterilizationprogram.Soin1994thegovernmentbegantheNewPopulationPlan(NPP),sothecountryisworkingtowardsmanagingpopulationgrowthbutsofarisnotsucceeding.However,theprovinceofKeralainsouthwesternIndiahasadifferentstory,asdescribedinAlGores1992book,EarthintheBalance.1)
PopulationinKeralahasbeenstabilizedatzerofollowingaplanadoptedbytheprovincialleaders.AsreportedinGore
sbook,
First,theyhaveachievedanextremelyhighrateofliteracy,especiallyamongwomen.Second,throughgoodhealthcareandadequatenutrition,theyhaveloweredtheirinfantmortalityratedramatically.Andthird,theyhavemadebirthcontrolreadilyandfreelyavailable.
So,asKeralahasdemonstrated,populationcanbestabilizedifthereisadequateplanningandthepoliticalwilltoimplement.
China
Chinawasconcernedwithitsrapidlygrowingpopulationandtheneedtobeabletofeeditspeoplewhere80%
wereruralbased.ItimplementedapopulationcontrolANewEthicforHumankind
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programin1979.Thegoalwastobeonechildpercouple,particularlyinurbanareas,withprogramswithbothpositiveandnegativeincentivestoencourageparticipationAheavyeducationprogramwasimplementedtodiscouragemorethanonechildpercouple.Ruralcommitteeswerecreatedtoencourageonechildpercoupleanddiscouragecoupleshavingmorethanonechild.IntheChineseculture,malechildrenwerepreferredsothatitwassuspectedthatabortionsandinfanticidewerepractisedandbirthsoffemalechildrennotreported.Somepregnantwomenwerereportedtohavegonetorelativesorchildlesscouplestogivebirth.Edu
cationofbirthcontrolmethodswasimplementedandlatermarriagesencouraged.
ItisreportedthatChinaintendstocontinuewiththeone-childpolicyto2010andthattheone-childpolicyworksatleastinurbanareas.Somereportthat250millionto300millionbirthshavebeenpreventedbytheone-childpolicy.
Criticshavenotonlypointedoutthehumanrightsabusesthatthecontrolprogramencourages,buttheimpactonthedemographicbalance.Astheprogramproceedsthepopulationwillbecomemoremalebasedandthepreponderanceofoldermaleswilllacksufficientyoungercitizenstoprovideforthesocialsupportoftheirelders.
Conclusions
Sowhatdoesallthismeanintermsofthelongtermgrowthoftheplanet?
Firstofallwemustacceptthefactthatthereisindeedalimittothecarryingcapacityofthisfiniteplanetandthatpopulationcontrolmustbeexercisedintheinterestsofallhumanity.
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Thequestionthenarises,howbestdowedealwithittolimitthiscontinuinggrowth?
AstumblingblockinthewayofpopulationcontrolbydesignisthepolicyoftheCatholicChurchagainstbirthcontrolbyanybutnaturalmeans.Apuzzle,butitisboundtoresolveitselfovertimewhentherealityoftheproblembecomesmoreapparent.
Aswehaveseen,alotofFamilyPlanningandPopulationControlproceduresareineffectintheworldtodayandhavebeenformanyyears.FamilyPlanninginsomecountrieshasreducednationalpopulationgrowthratesbutinnearlyalllessdevelopednations,populationcontinuestogrow.Enforcedmethodssuchaslegislatingfamilysizeorenforcingsterilizationisonlypartiallysuccessful.Since98%ofpopulationgrowthisinthedevelopingcountries,thenitfollowsthatthedevelopednationsshouldputmoreeffortintohelpingtheirlessfortunateneighbourstogettheirpopulationgrowthundercontrol.
Developednationscouldhavetheirownproblemstoowithpopulationcontrolwiththeimbalancesofthedemographicdistribution.
Itwouldappearthatinviewofallthissomebasicassumptionsmustberevised.Forexample,wehavetothinkofpopulationcontrolincombinationwithadifferentformofeconomicgrowth.Indevelopedcountries,economicgrowthisup,and
populationdown.Inlessdevelopedcountriesthereverseistrue.Butthefuturedependsonbothbeingstable.Thatisthetrick.Thisiswhythispaperisseekinganewethicforhumankind.
REFERENCE
Gore,Al,EarthintheBalance,HoughtonMifflinCompany,NewYork,1992
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Chapter3
EconomicGrowth
IthinkitisfairtosaythattheRomansinthefirstcenturyA.D.didnotknowwhatwenowcalleconomics.Theymeasuredtheirwealthbymilitaryexploitsandthcaptureofslavesasakeysourceofenergy.IftheydidhaveeconomicgrowthitmsthavebeenseverelyrestrictedsincetheydidalltheirrecordkeepingandaccountingforthehugeRomanEmpireusingRomannumerals,whichisquiteamazing!ItwastheArabsthatintroducedarithmeticwiththezero.
Butsincetheindustrialrevolution,theWesterncountriesdiscoveredthemeansofincreasingthenationswealthbymanufacturingandtradinginbothgoodsandservices.Capitalismwasbornandthestandardoflivingofthecitizenhasconti
nuallyincreased.Thequestionthenarises,caneconomicgrowthgoonforever?Is"sustainablegrowth"anoxymoron?AsearchoftheInternetshowsalargenumberofreferencestoeconomicgrowthanditspossibleconsequences.WhenIsatdowntorewriteanearlydraftofthisChapter,Ihadanewanddisturbinginsight.Grantedthateconomicgrowth,aswehaveknownit,cannotgoonforever,thenhowwoulditeverbepossibletoslowitdown?Bylegislation?Iguessnot.Bypopularagreementofthecitizens?Equallyunlikely.Thereforeitmustbethrustuponus,perishthethought.Or,changethenatureofeconomicgrowthtooneoflessconsumptionofresourcesandsourcesofpollution.Theinformationsocietyisanexampleofsuchaconcept.However,forthemomentletusputasidethatpr
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ospectandseewhatcertainauthors,startingfromtheearlyyears,havesaidabouteconomicgrowth.
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ItbeginswithAdamSmithandhisbook,TheWealthofNationspublishedinEnglandin1776.1)AdamSmith
Smithissaidtobethefirstpoliticaleconomistwhowroteofeconomics.ItwaspartofhisworkasaScottishprofessorofphilosophy.Oneofhisbasicprincipleswasthatthemarketplaceisdrivenbyself-interestandthatthisshouldnotbeconstrainedbythesettingofrulesorpoliticallegislation.Thereis,ashesaysinhisbook,an
invisiblehandatworkinthesupplyanddemandandthesettingofpricesofgoodsndservices.ToquoteTheWealthofNations1)onthis:
Everyindividualnecessarilylabourstorendertheannualrevenueofthesocietyasgreatashecan.Hegenerallyindeedneitherintendstopromotethepublicinterest,norknowshowmuchheispromotingit.Heintendsonlyhisowngain,andheisinthis,asinmanyothercases,ledbyaninvisiblehandtopromoteanendwhichwasnopartofhisintention.Bypursuinghisowninteresthefrequently
promotesthatofthesocietymoreeffectuallythanwhenhereallyintendstopromoteit.
Asformentotrytocontrolthemarketplace,hedoesnotfavourit.
Itisthehighestimpertinenceandpresumption,therefore,inkingsandministerstopretendtowatchovertheeconomyofprivatepeople,andtorestraintheirexpense.
SmithwasgreatlyinfluencedbythesituationheANewEthicforHumankind
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observedinFrancewherecitizensatthetimewereunderaveryheavytaxburdenandmiserablypoor.ThissituationeventuallybroughtontheFrenchRevolutionandtheriseofNapoleon.
Smithdidnotseethelongrangeviewofeconomicgrowthconsumingnaturesbasicresources.InterestingthatMalthusdidseealimittopopulation,butSmithdidnotseeaneventuallimittoeconomicgrowth.Whathepointedoutwastheincentivethatwasthedrivingforceofsuchgrowth-self-interestofindividualsandcorporations,andheencouragedthat!Andlittlehaschangedtothisday.
JonasandJonathanSalk
AspointedoutinthepreviousChapter,theSalkshadauniqueapproachtothef
utureinthattheysaythattoreducepopulationfromwhattheycallEpochAtoEpochBwouldrequireamajorshiftinthebehaviourofpeoplefromcompetitiontocooperation.Thiswouldbeachangeofevolutionarymagnitude.Maybenotpossibleifweconsiderthatthehunterinstincthasbeenincorporatedinthemalememberofthespeciessincetimebegan.Replacingcompetitionwithcooperationintheeconomicrealmishardtoimagine.Itwouldcertainlyconstituteanewethiconthepartofbusinessforsuchachangetotakeplace.Butitmayindeedhavetotakeplaceinsomeformoranother.Itmaybethepriceofsurvival.E.F.Schumacher,etal
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FritzSchumacherwasaprofessionalstatisticianandeconomistworkinginBritain.Hispublicationin1973givesthemessageinthetitle:SmallisBeautiful.2)MuchofthebookisabouttheconsumptionofnaturescapitalandtheclassifyingofnaturalresourcesasincomeANewEthicforHumankind
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ratherthancapitalandthereforeconsumingresourcestowardstheirextinction.
ThereisachapteronBuddhisteconomics.Inthisphilosophy,manworksforsatisfaction,ratherthanputtingupwithdissatisfactionforthesakeofthewage.Modernproductionrequiresspecializationandtheuseofmachinestoreplacetheindividualwhereverpossible.ThisisdescribedintheratherlengthybutperceptiveforewordbyTheodoreRoszak.HetalksaboutGandhiseconomicprogramforIndiaasfeaturingdevelopinghandicraftsinthevillages.Labourintensiveproductionatthevillagelevelistobepreferredtoproductionlineworkinanurbanenvironment.ThisisalsowhatSchumacherwouldliketoseebutrealizesthatitwouldresultinapovertybasedsociety.Itmayindeedbethefutureofhumanityifthesocio-economiccollapseoccursaspredictedbymany.SothemessageinSchumachersbookisclear-keeplifesimpleandseethebeautyofthiswayoflife.Heseesthedangersthatlieaheadintheover-consumptionofnaturescapitaljustastheauthorsofLimitstoGrowthbutinhisownway.
TheinspirationforthecreationofSchumachersbookcamefromanAmericanRobert
SwannofNewEngland,U.S.A.whohadadmiredSchumachersarticlesinResurgencemagazine.SwanntravelledtoEnglandtomeetSchumacherandurgedhimtoassemblethearticlesintoabook.LaterSchumacherinturninspiredSwanntocreateanorganizationintheU.S.topromotethevaluesofhisphilosophies.ThusbecametheE.F.SchumacherSocietyofGreatBarrington,Massachusetts.TheSociety,foundedin1980,holdsannuallectures,managestheSchumacherLibraryof12,000volumes,andpromotessuchissuesasdecentralization,human-scalesocieties,regionallybasedeconomicsystems,ANewEthicforHumankind
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localcurrencyexperiments,andcommunitylandtrusts.AstheirwebsitesaysThecommunitylandtrustmodeldevelopedbyRobertSwannprovidesjustsuchavehicle
fordemocratizinglandandplacesstewardshipinthehandsofademocratically-structuredregionalorganization.SuchideasasthesetakealongtimetobegenerallyacceptedandadoptedbuttheSchumacherSocietyistakingaleadershiproleinthisregard.SchumacherandtheSchumacherSociety
sworkisaninspirationforsuchactivitiesasVoluntarySimplicity3)andnewapproachestolanduse,money,andagoodmodelforfuturegenerationstoreducethepressureofthegrowtheconomyandtheecologicalfootprint.
DennisandDonellaMeadows
AsauthorsoftheLimitstoGrowthseriestheyeloquentlypointoutthelimitstoeconomicgrowthintheirseveralbooks.AsquotedinapreviousChapter,theysaythatovershoothasalreadyoccurredandwemust"increasetheconsumptionle
velsoftheworld
spoorwhileatthesametimereducinghumanity
stotalecologicalfootprint".Inotherwords,economicgrowthmustbeshiftedfromthewealthynationstothepoorerones.Moreeasilysaidthandone.Againwearefacedwiththeneedtoreduceeconomicgrowthasweexperienceitintheconsumernations.AsIliketosay"NewResultsneedNewRules".
AlGore
Gore,withtheintroductionofAnInconvenientTruth5)invariousmediahashelpedthegeneralpublictorealizetherealdangersofglobalwarmingandenvironm
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entalconcernsingeneral.ThisisthebeginningofwhatIhavereferredtobeforeasthesecondHingeofHistory.ANewEthicforHumankind
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WithsufficientpublicawarenessthestageissetforpoliticalrecognitionandpermissiontolegislatestrongermeasurestoprotecttheEarthfromclimatechange,resourcedepletionandpollution.AlGoreisdoingmorefortheenvironmentnowasafreelancerthanhewasabletodoasVice-PresidentoftheU.S.HehasalwaysbeenconcernedabouttheenvironmentbutasV.P.hehadtocompromisehisdeeperconvictionsbecausethepublicwasnotreadyforstringentmeasures.TheU.S.AdministrationdidnotsignontotheKyotoProtocolbecausetheeconomywasmoreimportantatthetimethantheenvironment.Somuchforeconomicgrowth!Now,outofpolitics,Mr.Gorehasbeenabletofullyexploithisconcernsfortheenvironment.WhatinterestsmeaboutAlGoreisthestoryofhisearlylifeastoldinthebookbyHankHillin6)uptothetimeofhisselectionasVice-PresidenttoPresidentClinton.GoresfatherwasalongtimesenatorandpoliticswasintheGorefamilylife.AftergettinghisB.A.fromHarvardhedidnotwantapoliticalcareerinspiteof,orperhapsbecauseof,hisfatherslongtimeactivityinpoliticsHesignedupwiththelocalnewspaperinhissmalltowninTennesseeandwasareporterfortwoyears.ThewarinVietnamwastheninfullswingandtheriskofbeingdraftedwashigh.Hedidnotwanttoavoidbeingintheconflictasitwouldnotbeappropriateifhelaterchoseapoliticalcareer.So,hedecidedtoenlistandwassoonassignedtomilitaryjournalisticduty.Hen
everwasinfavouroftheVietnamwarbuthedidhisbesttodohisdutyforhiscountry.Thetragedyofwar,thehorrorshesawandexperiencedfirsthand,hadapowerfulimpactonhim.
Onhisreturnfromwaractivityhewasnotthesameman.HewassodeeplymovedthathesignedupforANewEthicforHumankind
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coursesattheVanderbiltUniversitySchoolofDivinityandstudiedtherefortwoyearstryingtodecidewhatheshoulddowithhislife.Hethencontinuedwithhisjournalisticcareerwithanintervaloperatingahousingdevelopmentactivity.Afterthreeyearsofreportinghefinallywasdrawnintopoliticsanddecide
dtorunfortheHouseofRepresentatives-ashisfatheralwayswantedhimto.Therestofhiscareerisprettywellknown.IfirstencounteredAlGoreJr.asakeyspeakerataWorldFutureconferenceinWashingtoninthe70stalkingabout(whatelse?)theenvironment!AndIhavebeeninterestedinhiscareereversince.
In1992GoreproducedthebookEarthintheBalance7)togivehisviewsontheenvironment.InitisChapter10Economics:TruthorConsequencesapowerfuldiatribontheinadequaciesofcurrenteconomictheory.Afewquotestellthestory:
Infact,thepartialblindnessofourcurrenteconomicsystemisthesinglemostpowerfulforcebehindwhatseemstobeirrationaldecisionsabouttheglobalenvironment.
Classicaleconomicsalsofailstoaccountproperlyforallthecostsassociatedwithwhatwewillcallconsumption.Everytimeweconsumesomething,somesortofwasteiscreated,butthisfactisconvenientlyforgottenbyclassicaleconomists.
Ourfailuretomeasureeconomicexternalitiesisakindofeconomicblindness,anditsconsequencescanbestaggering.
Iwonderifitisthatsimple.WhenaproductisANewEthicforHumankind
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manufacturedithasvaluebecausepeoplewillbuyit.Thewasteproducedhasnovaluebecausenoonewillbuyitandsoitdoesnotgetintotheeconomicequation.Heappearstoholdtheclassicaleconomistsatfaultfornotincludingtheseexternalcostsintheequationtoknowthetruecostsofoureconomictransactions.Iratherwouldpointoutthatnoonepresentlyknowshowtodothis!Andthereforeitcallsforseriousresearchtoupdatetheeconomictheorycurrentlyinuse.Itisoutofdate.Weareindeedblindtotherealandurgentneedforthis.IntheinterestsofthelongtermsustainabilityoftheplanetwemustputourmindsandourmoneyonthedevelopmentofaHolisticTheoryofEconomicssothatecangetthetruemeasureofeconomicgrowthanditsgloballongtermeffects.Measurementwemustdo,butwemustlearntomeasuretherightthings.Andasyetwedontknowhow.Soundssimple,butitisastrongchallengeandworthdoing.
AttheendofhisChapter10,GorequotesaspeechbyWinstonChurchilltourgethegovernmenttoactioninthefaceoftheoncomingWarinEurope.Itbearsrepeating.
Theeraofprocrastination,...half-measures,delays,iscomingtoitsclose.Initsplaceweareenteringaperiodofconsequences.
Astirringspeechindeedandjustasappropriateatthistimewhenseriousconse
quencesareenvisioned.EconomicgrowthmustbecontainedorthewarsofthefuturewillbefortheremainingresourcesthatEarthmayprovide.
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JaredDiamond
JaredDiamondsbookCollapse:HowSocietiesChoosetoFailorSucceed.4)doesafirstclassjoboftellinghowsocietiesgothroughthisfail/succeedcycle.ItishereIwouldliketoaddhisstoryoftheislandofHispaniolacontainingHaitiandDominicanRepublic.WhatmakesthestoryofthetwocountriesonHispaniola
islandintheCaribbeaninteresting,isthestarkcomparisonwiththeirconditiontoday.WhenColumbusdiscoveredthemin1492theywerebothcompletelyforested.Nowitisadifferentstory.Haitiisimpoverishedandhasaforestcoverofbarely1%,andtheDominicanRepublichas28%andlesspoverty.Themainreasonisthatduringtheyearsoftheslavetrade,shipswouldarriveinHaiti,unloadslavesfromAfricaandreturntoFrancewithashiploadoftimber.Inadditiontotheunrestrictedlogging,thefarmerspractisedslashandburntogainnewlandfortheirsubsistenceagriculture.TheDominicanRepublicontheotherhandreceivedimmigrantsfromEurope,mostlySpanishandconstrainedtheirloggingoperations.DuringtheruleofTrujillo,heloggedforhisownpurposesbutdidnotletinprivateoperators.Afterhisassassination,loggingbyprivatepartiesresumed.ThenwhenDelaguer,anotherdictator,tookover,helegislatedthebanningofcommerciallogging.Inspiteofthat,privateinterestsbootleggedloggin
guntilDelaguersentinthearmytostopit.Soitwasadeterminedefforttopreservenaturesresource.DiamondtellsofstandingontheborderbetweenHaitiandDRandlookingwesttoseerelativelybarrenlandofHaiti,thenlookingeasttoseeforestcoveroftheDR.Adramaticexperienceindeed.Datafromthetwocountriesfortheyear2000showthecontrastevenmoreclearly.9)
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HaitiDominicanRepublicUnemployment70%13.8%
Literacy48.8%83.2%
Lifeexpectancy54.1years71.4yearsItwouldnotbefairtoclaimthatallthisdifferenceisbecauseofdenudingtheforests,butitisindeedoneimportantfactorandmustbeconsidered.Measurement
Thewholetheoryandpracticeofeconomicsisbasedonmeasurement-inoneformoranother.AsaprominentBritishscientistoncesaid,tofullyunderstandanythingyoumustproperlymeasureit.Measuringithasbeenastrangebeasthowever.Tomeasureacountry
seconomicstatusthe"GrossDomesticProduct"includeseverythingthathasmonetaryvalue,includingcollectinggarbageorfixinganythingthat
sbroken.Othersystemshavebeendevelopedbutnonehasbeengenerallyadopted.Iwroteapaperlookingatthesevariousefforts"GenuineProgressandWell-beingIndicators"availableontheInternet8).Muchneedstobedoneinthisareaofmeasurement.
InavisittoCubarecentlyIhadaninterestingviewofthecontrastbetweenawealthycountryandathirdworldone.TheresortthatIwasstayinginwasAmericanstylewithallthehighstandardsofWesternaccommodation.OnatriptooneofthesmallertownsontheislandIsawwhata"verypoorthirdworldcountry"lookedlike.Thecitizenswerereportedlyprovidedwithfreeeducationandfreehealthcarebutwere,atthesametime,verypoorinthematerialsense.Bicyc
leswerepredominantonthemainstreets,andcars,whattherewere,wererareandofANewEthicforHumankind
40
ancientvintage.Taxiswerebicyclebased.WhenIgotbackhometoCanadaIfoundsomestatisticsthatwere,forthepurposeofthisdocument,veryrevealing.TheCOput2
intotheatmosphereintermsoftonspercapitaperyear(datafor2004)wereasfollows.Canada=16.5andCuba
=2.1.Thatsaysitall.
InmyearlyyearsasanindustrialengineerIlearnedthateveryjobconsistedofthreeparts:MakeReady,Do,andPutAway.Inthemodernindustrialpracticethesepartsarenotcompletelyfollowed.ThepreparationfortheproductionofaproductmostoftendoesnotincludethefullcostsofMakeReady.Thecostofdenudingtheforestdoesnotenterintotheequationofpreparationofpackaging.TheDopartisusuallywellcovered.ThePutAwaypartisthedisposalofthewasteoftheproductwhichisgenerallyignoredandbecomespartofpublicexpense.Anew"holisticeconomics"wouldnecessarilyhavetoconsideralloftheseworkelementsinsomenewandinnovativeform.Whatmustbedone
Firstofallwemustacceptthateconomicgrowth,asitnowoperates,mustbechangedorsimplyreducedinhigh-consumingcountries.Someofthekeypointsthen
appeartobe:
-makethegeneralpublic,businessandgovernmentmorefullyawareoftheneedtochangeeconomicgrowth.
-findwaystoreducetheincentivesthatdrivethegrowthsyndrome
-developaformof"holisticeconomics"tomodernizeeconomictheoryandpracticewithaviewtoencompassingthelongrangeviewtowardsasustainableplanet.
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So,thetwoenginesofchange,populationincreaseandeconomicgrowtharedrivingthebuscalledEarthrelentlesslytowardsthebreaksintheroadaheadasyetnotfullyseenbythebusdriverorthosedirectingandmanagingthetrip.Theroadmapforthistripisthecurrenteconomictheoryignoringthelongtermview.Thechangesrequiredtoensureasustainableplanetarenotgoingtobeeasy.Populationcontrolhasshownsomepossibilityofachievement,buteconomicgrowthhasnot.ItwillbelikewhatIoncelabelledamajortaskas
"turningtheelephantaround"9).Itisn
teasy,oratleastnotinahurry!
REFERENCES
1)Smith,Adam,TheWealthofNationsseeInternet:www.blupte.com/Literature/Biographies/Philosophy/Smith.htm
2)Schumacher,E.F.,SmallisBeautiful,Harper&Row,NewYork,1973
3)Elgin,Duane,VoluntarySimplicity,WilliamMorrow,19814)Diamond,Jarod,Collapse-HowSocietiesChoosetoFailorSucceed,PenguinGroup,19955)Gore,Al,AnInconvenientTruth,Rodale,20066)Hillin,Hank,AlGore-HisLifeand
Career,CarolPublishing,1992
7)Gore,Al,EarthintheBalanceHoughtonMifflin,NewYork,1992
8)www.fredgthompson.comandfollowlinksonthesidebartoProceedingsthenselectJanuary2006andseepage28forpaperonGPI.
9)www.fredgthompson.comandfollowlinkstoProceedingsthenselectMay2007andseepage17forpaperon"TurningtheElephantAround".ANewEthicforHumankind
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Chapter4
GlobalWarming
ThetwoprecedingChaptersonPopulationandEconomicGrowtharethedrivingforcesofenvironmentalbreakdown,leadingofcoursetoclimatechangeandglobalwarming.MuchhasbeencoveredintheseChaptersaboutglobalwarminganditscausesbuttheimportanceofthesubjectissuchthatIthinkitwillbeusefultopresentmoreofthecriticalaspectsofitinthisChapter.Asanymodernresearcherknows,asearchoftheInternetisthe"libraryoftheworld"tocheckfirst.ThewebsitefortheU.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgency(EPA)isalargesourceofreferencematerialonglobalwarming.1)
ByhappenstanceIpickedupabookoffthebargaincounterinmyfavouritebookstorebyJonathanWeinerTheNextHundredYears2).Itwasafortunatechoice.Weiner
sstoryoftheresearchbyCharlesDavidKeelingrevealsalotabouttheoccurrenceofCOinthe2
world
satmosphereandthereforeglobalwarming.KeelinggraduatedinchemistryfromNorthwesternUniversityinEvanston,IllandbeganworkingatCaltechinLosAngelesin1954.EarlyonhetookaninterestinmeasuringtheamountofCOintheairincludingdevising2
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amanometertodothat.ItwasthebeginningofalifecareertomeasureCOandhedidthisfirstaroundthe2
laboratorythenoutinthefield,upthelocalmountainsthenfinallyaroundtheworld.Whatwassurprisingwastheconsistencyoftheresults,around315partspermillion,nomatterwherehemeasuredit.Therewerevariationsintheseasonsandinsomelocalregionsbutthe315figureseemedtobeconsistentaverage.Thatwasintheearlyyearsofhismeasurements.By1988thatfigurehadANewEthicforHumankind
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risento350ppm.Weiner
sbookwaspublishedin1990butacheckontheInternetshowedmoreup-to-datevaluesofCO.
2
TheOfficeofOceanicandAtmosphericResearch,partoftheU.S.DepartmentofCommerce,reportsdatafrom2004showing378ppmofCOintheatmosphere.2
AndWikipediashowsthe2007ratetobe384ppm.Sothereisadocumentedsteadyriseinthecontent.Theirinformationalsoincludedsomehistoricaldatashowingthatpre-industriallevelsofCO(howevertheymeasured2
itatthetime)at278ppm.Theyreportalsothattheriseperyearappearstobeabout1.5ppm.Thisisverysignificantinformation.
KeelingalsolookedintohistoricaldataandasWeinerreports:
"Therecordshowsanexponentiallyrisingcurve,inlockstepwiththerisingcurveofthehumanpopulation.Inonehundredyearstherehadbeenonlythreehesitationsineitherrise.Thesehesitationsoccurredaroundtheyears1915,1930,and1940;oneworlddepressionandtwoworldwars."Ican
thelpbutbeamusedbythequotefromWeinerabouttheoccurrenceofmethane(worsethanCO)asa2
contributortoglobalwarming.
"Cowsbelchabouttwiceaminute,andputafewpoundsofmethaneintotheaireveryweek.Thus,clearingarainforesttomakeacowpasturereleasesmethanetwiceover.Firstthegasrisesfromtheexplosionoftermitesthateatthewood,thenfromthegrassyherdsthateatthegrass."ANewEthicforHumankind
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Soitseemsthatnomatterwhatyoudo,itcreatesmoreglobalwarming!
KeelingmetRogerRevellewhentheywereworkingontheplanningfortheInternationalGeophysicalYearprogram.AndwhenIreviewed(forthethirdtime)theDVDofAlGore
sAnInconvenientTruthInoticedthatwhenGorewasastudentatuniversityoneofhisprofessorswasRogerRevelle.RevelleimpressedGorewithh
isinformationonthegrowingpresenceofCOintheatmosphereandthe2
resultingglobalwarmingandallitsimplications.ThusbeganGore
slifelonginterestinthesecriticalissues.GorealsomentionsintheDVDpresentationthathiseffortsasaSenatorinCongresstopromoteconcernsforglobalwarmingwerenottoosuccessful.IalsolearnedthatwhenGorewasVicePresidentforBillClintonhehadtosuppresshisenthusiasmforglobalwarmingissuesinordertoconformwithpoliticalstrategiesatthetime.Gore
sresearchonthesubjectofglobalwarmingasshowninthepresentationisthoroughandveryconvincing.Herearesomeofthehighlights:
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-analysesoficecoresshowCOconcentrationsfor2
anunbelievabletimespan,650,000years,andshowasteadyincrease,withtheodddipforcertainclimateconditionsasiceages,etc.
-picturesshowtheoccurrenceofsteadilymeltingglaciersinvariousmountainrangesandarcticandantarcticicecaps.
-40%oftheworldpopulationdependonwaterfromthemeltingglaciersandthatisrapidlydryingup.
-occurrenceofCOintheatmospherehasnever2
beenover300partspermillionuntilrecentdecadesandnowisrisingfasterthanever.
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-globaltemperatureshaveneverbeenhotterthanoverthelast10yearswithapeakin2005
.-iftheglobaltemperaturesincrease,aspredicted,manylargeshorelinesettlementsworld-wide(includingManhattanIsland)willbegraduallyflooded
-increasingglobaltemperaturesexacerbateextremeweatherashurricanesandtornadosandevaporateadditionalwaterfromwaterbodiesandthelanditself.
-asurveyshowedthatworldscientistsallagreedontherealityofglobalwarmingbutthemediawassomethinglike52%uncertain.
-thepublicreactionislikenedtothefrog,whenputintograduallyincreasinghotwater,cannotrealizewhatisgoingonandisdestroyed;yetifheistossedintoboilingwaterheissuddenlyfullyawareandjumpsout.Ittakesashocktogetaction-butitmaybetoolate.
Theevidenceissostrongthatwecannolongerdenytheoccurrenceofclimatechangeandglobalwarming.LookingatthelongrangehistoryofmankindcanputthepresentandfutureinperspectiveandmoreeasilyseehowthechangeswouldgenerateincreasingamountsofCOintheworld
senvelope.
2
Earlymanwasahunterandanomadmovingtowherethehuntingwasbest.Withtheinventionofagriculture,peoplethensettledinonespot.Thisrequiredclearingtheforeststocultivatetheland.Villageshadthehousesclusteredclosetogetherbecauseofprimitivetransportation.Whenthecarwasinventedthenpeoplelivedinhouseswithlawnandgardensandtravelledtoworkwhereveritwas.
Thesuburbwasinvented.AteachstagemoreenergywasconsumedpercapitaandmorenaturalANewEthicforHumankind
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resourcesconsumed-andthereforemoregreenhousegasesgenerated.
Thequestionthenarises,atwhatpointwillthisconsuminglifestylebechanged,sloweddownorevenreversed?
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REFERENCES
1)ChecktheInternet:
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/2)Weiner,Jonathan,TheNextOneHundredYears,RandomCenturyPublishingGroupLtd.,London,UK,1990
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ChapterFive
BlockagesHavingcomethisfarinexaminingthetwomostpowerfulenginesdrivingtheworldtowardsanunsustainablefuture-populationandeconomicgrowths
-itbegsthequestion,whatisstoppinguscorrectingcourseforasustainableworld?Whataretheblockages?First,itmustbegrantedthatsomemeasuresareindeedbeingtakentoleadustoasustainableglobalenvironment.TheKyotoProtocolisanexample.1)Butthemeasuresproposedarenotbeingadoptedbyallcountries.TheU.S.hasnotsignedup,mostlyforeconomicreasons.Canadahassignedonbutitisnotreachingtheproposedlevelsofconstraint.So,whatthenaretheblockagesthatarestoppingusmakingprogresstowardreasonablegoals?Ihavelistedafew.
1.Apathy
Apathyofthegeneralpublicisoftenpointedoutasacauseofnotenforcingproperactionsintheinterestsofsustainability.Thepublicisheavilyinfluencedbythemediaandthemediaaretoooftenfocusedongettingtheattentionoftheiraudiencebywhatevermeans-"breakingnews",gameshows,entertainment.Hence,alackofinterestonthepartofthepublicforseriousissues,particularlythoseofalongtermnature.Complacency,likeapathy,isanotherformofdisinterestandthereforeofinaction.TheBritishexpression
ImallrightJackisacommononeinthisregard.LookinginGoogleforadefinitiofapathycomesupwithItsnotimportant:dontworryaboutit.
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2.Denial
Onmattersofimportancethereisoftenanattitudeofdenial.Thisisparticularlysoiftheissuesinvolvemajorchangesorarefrighteningtobehold.Climatechangehasbeenindenialforalongtime,andisstillsoforsomepeople.
ThomasHomer-DixoninhisbookTheUpsideofDown2)identifiesthreestagesofdenial.Thefirststagesaystheissuejustdoesntexist;thesecondstageadmits
theproblembutsaysitdoesntmatter;thethirdsayswearejustnotgoingtothinkaboutit.
Sodenialisablockagetotakingactiononmajorproblemsthatpeoplecannotface.
AnothersearchonGoogle3)broughtupthisquotefromapoliticianinIndia,SanjayNirupamOnealwayshearsaboutAIDSandhowitsthisbigproblem.ButIhavepersonallynevercomeacrossanyonewithAIDSorseenanyonedyingofthedisease....Ithinkitsjusthype.
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Hardtobelieve,butthereitis.
IthinkthataftertheKatrinadisasterintheU.S.manypeoplereturnedtotheirhomesindenialthatitcouldeverhappenagain.Othersacknowledgedthepossibilityofarecurrence,takingthelongtermviewandmovedelsewhereoutofdanger.
3.Compassion
Itisnaturaltowanttoconserveandlengthenlifeevenatconsiderablecost.AspointedoutinthepreviousChapter,itisbettertoputtheemphasisoneducationtopreventtheexistenceofpovertyorignorance.AtonetimeBillGateswithasincereheartwasdonatingagoodshareofhisfortunetothereliefofsufferinginAfrica.Aspointedoutinthepreviouschapter,itwouldbebetterinthelongrunforsuchmoneytogotopreventingthedis-ANewEthicforHumankind49
easebeingdonatedto.Compassionisshortterm,butrealitymustbedealtwithtopreventevenmoresufferinginthelongerterm.Sointhatsense,compassioncanbeablockage.Seemsharshbutitisreallymorerealistic.Aninterestingexample:Iprovidedsupportbysmallmonthlypaymentstoafamilyinadevelopingcountrythroughoneoftheseveralagenciesthatprovidedthatservice.Afriendofminehadoccasiontovisitthecountryconcernedandtheactualfamilyrece
ivingthebenefits.Itturnedoutthatthemoneybeingprovidedsetthefamilyapartfromtheirpeersandalthoughallwereindeeppovertyitupsetthesocialbalanceandwasresented.Theglassesthatwereprovidedbytheagencyfrommycontributionswerenotwornbythechildneedingthemasitmadehimstandoutunfavourablyfromhisfriendsandneighbours.Inotherwordstheactsofcompassiondidnotcontributetoanimprovedsocialsituation.Forcompassiontobeablockagetoimprovementisastrangephenomenonbutmustfirstberecognizedthenexercisedwithreasonablejudgement.
4.Beliefsystems
Beliefsystems,liketribalism,canactasblockagestocertainaspectsofthesocialstructure.Religionisabeliefsystemthatwhenrigidandstrictlyfollow
edcanconflictwithorlimittheapplicationofsuchprogramsasbirthcontrol,socialstability.Warsareoftenbasedonareligiousstruggleforpowerordominance.5.Tribalism
InherbookWorldonFire4)theauthorAmyChuatalksabouttheimpactoftribalismonworldactivities.Shedescribesitasethnichatred.ItcanbeseeninIsralvsPalestine,inSunnivsShiite,andMuslimvsChristian.ANewEthicforHumankind
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ChuastartsherbookwiththestoryofthemurderofherauntinthePhilippinesbyherchauffeur.HerauntwasoneoftheChineseminoritythatcontrolledmuch
ofthePhilippineeconomyandthechauffeurwasofthenativemajority.Ethnichatred,shesays,isrampantinsuchjurisdictionswheretheethnicminoritycontrolsthemajorityofthetoolsofpower.Thesub-titleofherbooktellsthesubstanceofthecontent:HowExportingFreeMarketDemocracyBreedsEthnicHatredandGlobalInstability.Ethnicbeliefsandcustomsaresoingrainedthattheyoverrideordinaryjusticeandequalityofrelationships.Andindividualsinthenativemajorityarewillingtogototheextremeintheirbehaviourtoprotecttheirculture.Anyonewhoiswillingtogototheextremeisadangerouspersonandpotentiallyliabletocreatesocialinstability.6.BirthControl
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Thereluctancetopracticebirthcontrolisamajorfactorinpopulationcontrol.ThepolicyoftheCatholicChurchistobantheuseofartificialbirthcontrolmethodsorabortionaswaspointedoutinapreviouschapter.Agenciesandactiviststhatopposeartificialmethodsofbirthcontrolandabortionareadefiniteblockagetothecontrolofpopulationgrowth.Andpopulationgrowthisoneofthemostseriousfactorsinthecreationofasustainableplanet.
Ifsavinglivesistheissuethenonemustconsiderthecostsinlivesofaplanetthatcannotsustainitsgrowingpopulation.Shorttermthinkingandcompassionacttoleadtheworldintomassstarvationandsocialstressesoftheworstkind.Strangethatsomepeoplecannotseeoracceptthat.
Ifoundoutthatwww.Lifenews.comwasusefulforfurtherinformationonprogramstolimitpopulationgrowth,ANewEthicforHumankind
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muchofitpro-lifeandthereforecontroversial.Butwhatisreality?
7.Poverty
Povertyisarecognizedsourceandcauseofpopulationgrowth.Itisinthecountrieswiththeloweststandardoflivingthathavethelargestgrowthrates.Raisingtheeconomicleveldoesresult,generally,inlowerbirthrates.Butthisa
ttheexpenseofincreasedeconomicgrowthanditsconsequencestotheenvironment.
Povertyisoneblockagetoenvironmentalstabilitybutitsalleviationmustbecombinedwithreducingeconomicgrowthelsewheretobalancetheequation.8.Self-interest
Self-interestisoneofthemostpowerfulincentivesinbothindividualandorganizationaldecisionsandactions.Andself-interestrarelylooksveryfarahead.AsAdamSmithsaid,self-interestisthedrivingforceofthemarketplaceandshouldnotbeinterferedwith.Selfinterestisarguablythemostimportantblockagetotheimplementationofprogramstoensureasustainablefutureworld.
9.Short-termvslongterm.
Short-termthinkingisoneofthemostcriticalofblockagestotheacceptanceandimplementationofprogramstopreservetheenvironment.Rightnow,everythingisgoingwell,dontdisturbit,isacommonattitude.Suchanattitudepervadescurrenteconomics,aswasmentionedinapreviousChapter.
Actionstoprotecttheworldfromexcessiveglobalwarmingortheconsumingofresourcestothepointofextinctionare,bytheirverynature,longrangeconcerns.ANewEthicforHumankind
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ScientistsformanyyearswerewarningtheCanadiangovernmentofthetrendsinover-fishingontheAtlanticcoast.Butitwasnotuntiltheshort-termforecastsmadetheendofthecodfisheryappearfrighteninglyclosethatthelong-termtrendsbecameanimminentreality.10.Incentives
Tounderstandanyactionitisimportanttolookfortheincentivesthatunderlieanddrivetheprocess.Tounderstandwhypeopledowhattheydo,justaskwhatistheincentive?Inmanyoftheblockageslistedhere,thekeytounderstandingthemistoseekandidentifytheincentivethatdrivesthem.
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11.Economics
Inthefieldofeconomicsthepracticeofnotallowingforfullproductcostingisanimportantblockagetotheconstraintsofconsumption.Thecostsofdisposingofwasteduringmanufactureandthedisposalofpackagingbytheconsumeraretwoexternalcoststhatarebornebythetaxpayer.
Insomeindustriescertainby-productsorwastesaredumpedfreelyintotheairorwatersystems.Thesearesignificantcontributorstopollutionandglobalwarmingandcannotbeignored.
ThewholeissueofexternalitiesinthecostingprocessisworthyofexaminationandnewmethodsfoundtowardsamoreequitablesystemThesolutionisnotonlyinthefieldofeconomicsbutalsointhecreatingofpublicacceptanceofappropriatemethodsofallocatingtheseexternalitiesfairly.
WehaveshowninapreviousChapterhowgrowthdrivestheeconomicengine.Itisoneofthemostpowerfulforcesthatmustbere-alignedintheinterestofstabilityofANewEthicforHumankind
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theplanet.Mustwefacea"no-growth"economy?Well,perhaps,butnotintheoldway
12.Capitalism(business)
OneofthemostpowerfulinfluencesintherunningofacountryisbusinessorcapitalismaspractisedintheWest.AsImayhavementionedbefore,InoticedanewsreportofaU.S.senatorwhodeclinedtorunforre-electionwhenhisseatwasassured,because,ashesaid,thecountrywasungovernable.HewasreferringtothepoweroflobbiestoinfluencethevotesinCongressoftenoverridingthewishesofthepeopleinhisconstituency.ThiswasalsothecasewhentheU.S.declinedtoratifytheKyotoProtocol;thecurrenteconomyandtheimpactofbusinessesweremoreimportantthanthelongruninterestsofthecountry.Itwasthebusinesseconomyfirst,andenvironmentsecond.
Foranotherexample,ittookyearsofefforttoeffectchangesintheuseoftobaccobythecitizenrybecauseofthestrengthofthebusinessopposition.Businessisonepowerfulblockagetomeasuresthataffectsthem.13.Cost
Costofimplementationofprogramstoprotecttheenvironmentortheover-consumptionofresourcesisablockagetoconcertedactiononthepartofbothbusinessandgovernment.
However,manycompanieshaveshownthatthecostsofimplementingconservationmeasureshavebeenrecoverableintheshorttermbyinnovationandnewtechnology.RayAndersonCEOofhiscarpetmanufacturingcompanyisagoodexample.5)TheInternethasaquotefromthereference:
"BycombiningenvironmentalismwithdedicationANewEthicforHumankind
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tohiscompany
ssuccess,Andersonhasproventhatbeinggreencanalsobringinthegreenforbigbusiness"
14.Governance
Althoughdemocracyissaidtobethebestformofgovernmentthattheworldhas
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experienced,itisoftendiscouraginglyslowtoactwhenimportantissuesareofalongtermnature.Whetherpopulationcontrolisagoodthingornot,itisabundantlyclearthatitwouldbeverydifficulttolegislateinademocracy-althoughithasbeeninChina.MovingintoIraqbytheUSin2001whentheevidencewasnotsufficientandthepublicwasnotfullysupportive,showsthefrailtyofthedemocraticprocess.Theremayindeedbeanewformofgovernanceyettobefound,andpractised,thatwillservethepeoplewiththelong-terminterestsofthenation.Itispossiblethatinthefuturewhenstabilityisseriouslythreatened,amorefirmformofgovernancewillbethealternativetoourpresentdemocraticform.Inthisevent,weshallhavetowaitandsee!
IntheearlydaysoftheBritishparliamentarysystemtheysetupaHouseofLords.Thiswastoensurethatthedecisionsofparliament,consistingoftheelectedpeasantsandmerchants,didnotendangerthestabilityofthenation.Thusthetyrannyofthemajoritywaskeptincheckbytheso-calledupperhouse.
Decisionsbygovernmentscanbesoall-embracingastobethemostimportantlevelofpolicymakingandactionthatexistsinanation.Therefore,itismoreimportanttoworkatthislevelformajorchangesintheoverallenvironment.Thetop-downapproachismoreeffectivethantryingtoimplementlargechangesattheindividuallevel.
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Democracyissupposedtobringstabilitytothenation,butsometimesthewillofthemajorityisindeeddangerous.Thishasbeendemonstratedmanytimes.InAmericasefforttospreaddemocracytoothercountries,ithasoftenoccurredthatitbackfiredbygeneratingantiAmericangovernmentmovementsinthetargetcountry..Frominformationindiscussionwithpeopleconcerned,IwasgiventounderstandthatwhenPierreTrudeauwasinSalzburgattendingaClubofRomemeeting,hewasheardtosaysomethingtothiseffect:Iagreewiththeimportanceofallwearediscussing,butifIweretogobacktoCanadaandtrytoimplementtherequiredprograms,Iwouldbeoutofofficeatthenextelection-orbefore.Andthesadpartisthatmysuccessorwouldbeinthesamefix.
Soberwords,butIseethisasrealityasweareexperiencingit.
15.Politicalwill
Aftertheremarksinthepreviousparagraph,itiseasytoseethatittakesstrongpoliticalwilltoproposeandpossiblyimplementprogramsthatinvolvemajorchangesandcostsintheinterestofthelongtermlifeoftheplanet.Iwastoldatonetimethatagovernmentministersaidthattoimplementanyprogram,ittakesthesupportofatleast80%ofthepeople.Thismayornotbeanaccuratefigure,butitdoesshowthedifficulties,yesblockagestotheimplementationofboldinitiativesinthedemocraticregimes.Sad,perhapsbutnecessarytounderstand.16.Globalization
Withmodernmethodsoftransportationandcommunicationstheprocessofglobalizationismovingrapidlyandseemsunstoppable.ItcreatesandencouragesANewEthicforHumankind
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increasedeconomicgrowth,corporateconcentrationandthereforeincreasedconsumptionandpollution.Globalizationbycreatingtheconcentrationofwealthinfewerhandsgivesmorepowertobusinessandincreasesthespreadbetweenthesocialclasses.Howtodealwiththisongoingphenomenonisnotclear,butthefirs
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tstepistobeawareofthedangerstotheenvironmentandplanappropriatesteps.Itcanbeindeedasignificantblockagetoadoptingwidespreadenvironmentalprograms.Tosumup
Thekeyblockages,toputitsimply,are:1.Thelackofpoliticalwillandcourageforgovernmentstorecognizeandenactthenecessarystepstoprotectthefuture.
2.Thelackofpublicsupportforthenecessarychangesingovernmentregulationsandlegislation.2.Theincentivesforgrowththatkeeptheeconomygrowingrelentlesslyonward.
REFERENCES
1)SeeWikipediaontheInternet
2)Homer-Dixon,Thomas,TheUpsideofDown,AlfredA.KnopfCanada,2006
3)Googlesearchfor"AIDS,India,SanjayNuripam"4)Chua,Amy,WorldonFire,RandomHouse,Inc.,NewYork,2003
5)SeeInternet;
http://www.myhero.com/myhero/
hero.asp?hero=r_anderson
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ChapterSix
TheLawsofChange
Changeisessentialifhumanityistoprogress.Wemaybesubjectedtoit,orindeedwemaybetheagentsofchange.Perhapsboth!
PeterdeJager,aconsultantonthemanagementofchange1)showedhowSirIsaacNewtonsLawsofMotionappliedtotheimplementationofchangeinhumanbehaviour.Newtonslawsshowthataprocesswillcontinuealongthesamepathunlesssomeoutsideforceisapplied.So,humanbehaviourwillonlychangewheneffortisapplied.Themagnitudeofchangeisproportionaltotheforceapplied.Itmakessense.
ThereisalawofchangethatIheardofatonetimeandhavefoundquiteusefulthatgoessomethinglikethis:
"Tomakeanarithmeticchangeitisnecessarytoapplyanexponentialeffort."Inotherwordstomakeatwotimesdifferenceittakesafourtimeseffort.Orth
reetonine,etc.Apersonalcase:Iwasgivingatalktoagroupofforemeninapapermillduringoneofmyconsultingassignmentsandmentionedthelawofchangeandhowitapplied.ThenIsaidtomakeasignificantchangeyouhavetoBLAST!
Well,nextdayasIwentaroundtheplant,variouspeoplesaid:Whatdidyousaytotheforemenlastnight?Theyareallraisinghelltoday!So,maybeIoverdidthelesson.
Havingsaidthat,InowhavetorecognizeachapterinmybookManagementReader
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2)calledTryingHarder.Theessencehereisthateffortalonecanonlyincreaseotputasmallamount,somethinglike28%.Ontheotherhand,achangeofmethodcanincreasetheoutputmanytimesover.Sothemessageissimply:ANewEthicforHumankind
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Tryingharderdoesntwork;changethemethod.Alessontoberemembered,andtobecludedwiththelawsofchange.
Anotherexample:Iwasinchargeofajobevaluationprojectwherethetargetwastowriteandrate10,000jobsinoneyear.Alargecommitment.Andweweregettingbehindschedule.Ourteamwaswritinganaverageof3jobsperinterviewerperdayandthatwasnotenough.Iurgedthestafftoworkharderandimprovethecurrentoutput.Afterawhile,nochange.Still3jobsperday.SoIrememberedaseminarwhereweweretoldhowtorescheduleworktoreachdeadlinesthatwereslipping.Thiswasforcompaniesworkingonequipmenttoreachandlandonthemoon-andreturnsafelytoEarth.Hundreds,ifnotthousandsofcontractorsandsub-contractorswereinvolvedandallhadtocoordinatetoafixedscheduletomaketheestablisheddeadlines.Asmalldelayinoneoperationcouldcostthewholeprogramhugelosses.Sotheindividualprojectshadtobefinishedontime.Ifaprojectgetsbehindschedulewhatcanyoudotocatchup?Severaloptions:
-addalotmorelabour
-addaninfusionofmuchmoremoney
-increasethequalityrisk
-makeamajorchangeofmethodWecouldnotaddmoremoneyormorelabourbutwecouldconsiderqualityandmethod.Sowechangedfromeachinterviewerworkingdirectlywiththejobincumbent,totrainingthesupervisorofthejobtobedescribedtowritethejobandourinterviewerwouldedittheoutput.Thisincreasedthequalityriskasmallamountbutincreasedoutputbytwoorthreetimes.WethenwereANewEthicforHumankind
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abletomeetourdeadlineof10,000jobsinthatoneyear.Amajoraccomplishment.
Howdoesallthisrelatetocreatingasustainableworldthroughanewethic?Well,ittakeshugeefforttomakemajorchangesandanurgentneedfornewmethodsthatwemayyethavetolearn.Nomeantask.Now,whatkindofchangeswouldweanticipatetocreateasustainableworld?
ChangerequiresmotivationandincentivesorwecontinueaswithNewtonsLawsofMotion-continuinginthesameoldway.Changecanhappenfromthebottomup(activistsandpublicdemonstrations)orfromthetopdown(governmentorCEOdict
um).Theaveragecitizencanrespondandadapttochange,orpreferablyactasanmotivatorofchange.
WesawinapreviousChapterhowtheincentivesforprofitcreateanever-changinggrowtheconomy.Sohowdoyoustopit?Theremustbeconstraints,aswellasincentives,insomeformofbalance.Constraintsaretherulesandregulationsimposedbygovernments.Inademocracy,constraintscanonlybeimposedonanacceptingpublicandthathaslimits.LesterBrowninhisbookEco-Economy3)showshowtaxshifting,asappliedinsomecountriesinEuropeisausefulgovernmentpolicytoencourageecologicalimprovement.Inthiscase,personalincometaxes
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arereducedbutataxonpollutersisincreasedsothatthetotaltaxgatheredisthesame.Itisanexcellentexampleofapplyingnewconceptstothetraditionaleconomicgrowthsyndromeintheinterestsofpreservingtheenvironment.Allthisinvitesthequestion,canyoulegislatehumanbehaviour?Inademocracy,yesifthepeoplegenerallyareinsupport.TakeforexampleHumanRights.EstablishinglawsfortherecognitionofhumanrightswasANewEthicforHumankind
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amajorachievementofthe20thcentury.Consideralsotobaccolegislation,orseat-beltlaws.Buthowfarcanapoliticalleadergoinenforcingmeasurestoreduceglobalwarming?Notveryfar,asweseeintheKyotoProtocol,andtheactionsofvariouscountriesoftheworld.Fearisapowerfulmotivatorforinducingchange.Fearofthedrasticeffectsofclimatechange,aspointedoutbymanyscientists,hasshownsomepositiveresults.Somepeoplesaythatfearofterrorismhasproducedanover-reaction.Thismaybeso,butthereasonisthatitisanissuethatpeoplecanseeandexperience.Itisheretoday.Fearoftheeffectsontheworldenvironmentisalongertermissueandisoftendeniedorneutralized.Fearoftengeneratesdenialandthereluctancetoact,orthereplacementwithhope.Realitymustbeacknowledged.Thetrickthereforeistounderstandthelawsofchangethenfindouthowtocreatetheincentivesandmotivatorscombinedwithabalanceofconstraintstoensureasustainableworld.
REFERENCES
1)deJager,PeteronManagementofChange:http://www.technobility.com/docs/article054.htm2)www.fredgthompson.comthenclickonPublicationsonsidebarandfindManagementReader.3)Brown,Lester,Eco-Economy-BuildinganEconomyfortheEarth,KoganPage,London,U.K.,2003
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ChapterSeven
GlobalManifesto
InmyinterestintakingsomekindofactionregardingthelongerrangefutureIpreparedthisGlobalManifestoseveralyearsagoandpublisheditontheInternet.Ihaveupdatedthedatabutotherwiseitisthesameastheoriginal.Itformsagoodsummaryofchangesthatneedtobemadetoprovideforabetterworldintheyearstocome.Iwouldencouragereaderstofeelfreetocopyanddistributewithduerecognitionofauthorship.GlobalManifesto
PREAMBLE
Itisbecomingmoreandmoreobviousthatsteadilyincreasingpopulationandincreasingmaterialconsumptionarecreatingaworldthatisfastconsumingitscapitalandpushingnatureslimits.Therehasbeennolackofwarningsissuedbyvar
iousindividualsandorganizationsbutmorecorrectiveactionmustbeimplemented.Thetimeisnowwhenurgentactionisrequiredbeforepollutionandshortagesoffertileland-andwater-createaworldthatcannotrecoverfromthepillagingthathasbeenandisgoingon.Thefollowingdocumenthasbeenpreparedtoalertdecisionmakersinbusiness,governmentandacademiatowhatactionisurgentlyrequired.A.POPULATION
FACTS
Worldpopulationin2007isestimatedbytheU.S.CensusBureautobe6.6billio
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nandincreasingby73ANewEthicforHumankind
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millionperyear,agrowthrateof1.15%.By2050theyestimateitwillreach9.4billionatthereducedrateofincreaseof0.49dependingonratesoffertility,especiallyinthethirdworld.1)
Increasingpopulationrequiresincreasingsuppliesofenergy,water,grazingland,grainlands,fisheriesandothernaturalresourcesallofwhicharealreadyatrisk,anddecliningonanabsoluteandperpersonbasis.Increasingpopulationgeneratesmorepollutionofair,waterandthesoilastheresultofincreasedconsumptionofresources.Increasingpopulationbecomesconcentratedincitieswhichgeneratesproblemsofhousing,transportation,foodandenergy,withincreasedpotentialforpovertyandsocialunrest.
ACTIONREQUIRED
Nationalgovernmentsmustmakeurgenteffortstostabilizepopulationbylimitingbirthsby:familyplanning,birthcontrolandupgradingthestatusofwomen,andinsomecasestheenactingoflegislationlimitingfamilysize.
Religiousandsocialbodiesmustliftrestrictionsonbirthcontrol.
Theeducationofwomeninlessdevelopedcountriesshouldbeencouragedandfinancedbythemoredevelopedcountries.
B.ENERGY
FACTS
Oilandcoalrepresent64%ofworldenergyusedofwhichoilwas36%(2006)2)mostofwhichisburnedreleasinglargeamountsofCOtotheatmosphere.Thisis2
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amajorcontributortoglobalwarming.Massiveburningofcoal-28%ofworldenergy(2006)-willhaveaseriousimpactonglobalwarmingdueagaintothereleaseofCOtotheatmosphere.Alternative2
energytoreplaceoilisunlikelytobeavailabletosatisfyincreasingdemands(evenathigherprices)bythenextdecadeatpresentratesofdevelopment.Politicaldecisionsinoilproducingcountriescoulddrasticallyreduceorcutoffoilsuppliestothemajoroilconsumingcountriescausingamajorfuelcrisisintransportation,heatingandelectricpowergeneration.ThewebsiteTheComingGlobalOilCrisissupportstheaboveconcerns:3)
Agrowingnumberofanalystsnowpredictthatglobaloilproductionwillpeakwith
inthecomingdecadeandthenstarttodecline,leadingtohigherenergypriceswithmajoreconomicconsequences.Oilisthelargestsingletradedcommodityintheworld.Itsuppliesabout95percentofalltransportationfuelsand40percentoftheworldscommercialenergy.Italsoprovidesfeedstockforthousandsofmanufacturedproductsandiscriticalforfoodproduction.
ACTIONREQUIRED
Commitmentofmuchlargerresourcestothedevelopmentofalternativesourcesofenergy(suchaswind,solar,geothermal,fuelcell,hydrogen)toreplaceoil,p
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articularlyintransportation,bynationalgovernmentsandbusiness,withspecifictargetsofavailabilitytoadefinitetimehorizon.
LargeincreaseininvestmentintheprocessesfortheANewEthicforHumankind
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capturingandsequesteringofCOtoavoiditsreleaseinto2
theatmosphere,includingtheimmediatefundingofprototypes,isurgentlyrequired.GovernmentsmustsetandenforcestricterstandardsforautomobilegeneratedpollutionasinCalifornia.Programsmustbeimplementedbytheenergyindustrytoincreasepublicacceptanceofnuclearenergytoenabletheinstallationoftherequiredsupplyofenergybythetimetheoilsupplyisoverthepeakinthenext10orsoyears.Researchmustbeincreasedonacceptablemeansofdisposalofnuclearwaste.
Bothgovernmentsandbusinessesareurgedtoprepareandpublishrealisticalternativescenariosfortheanticipatedconstraintsimposedbyareducedoilsupplyincludingrecommendedsolutions.
Emergencyplansshouldbesetuptodealwithapossiblesuddencuttingoffofforeignoilsuppliestomajoroilconsumingcountries.
C.ENVIRONMENT
FACTS
Globalwarmingisnowanacceptedfactwithitsimpactonsealevels,weather,desertificationandmeltingofglaciersandicecaps.4)
Globalwarmingrequiresincreasingamountsofwaterforirrigation.
Watertablesworld-widearedroppingyear-by-yearinthefaceofrisingpopulationandindustrydemands.Thismaywellbethecriticalresourceofthefuture.5)Industrialpollutionisincreasinglycontaminatingfreshwaterbodies,makingthemunpotableandkillingoffmarinelife.
DestructionoftherainforestsandforestsingeneraliscausingrapidspeciesextinctionandhavinganegativeANewEthicforHumankind
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impactonweatherpatterns.Transportationandmanufacturingarecreatingmajorlevelsofpollutionofbothairandwaterresources,andtheratewillrapidlyincreaseaslessdevelopedcountriesincreasetheiraspirations.Themajorbasesoffoodsupplyarerapidlydeterioratingincludinggrasslands,grazinglands,fisheries,anddemandsareincreasingonaperpersonbasisandasworldtotals.SeevariousresearchpapersoftheWorldwatchInstitute.6)
ACTIONREQUIRED
StricterregulationsandstandardsmustbeestablishedtowardsreducingtheescapeofCOintotheatmos2pheretoreduceglobalwarming.
Waterconsumptionmustberationed(oralternativeproceduresdeveloped)topreservewatertablesinappropriateareaswithresponsiblestewardshipbeforetheybecomeexhausted.
Cleanwaterlawsneedtobecreatedorre-inforcedwithappropriatepenaltiesfo
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rnon-compliance.Deforestationmuststopandprogramsdevelopedbywealthiercountriesforthelessdevelopedcountrieswherethedeforestationistakingplace.Stewardshipofforestsiscalledfor.
Governmentsandindustrymustsetnewandstricterstandardsofpollution,beyondthosealreadysetatKyotoandRiowithseverepenaltiesforinfraction.Longtermscenariosmustbedevelopedtorationalizethisprocedure.Governmentsmustimplementappropriatetaxationonremovalofnaturalresourcestoallowforreplacementordevelopmentofalternativelessdestructiveprocedures.ANewEthicforHumankind
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D.ECONOMICS
FACTS
Economictheoryandpracticedoesnotadequatelyfactorinthecostofnon-renewableresourceconsumptionanddepletion.
Bothgovernmentsandbusinessarededicatedtoacontinualincreaseineconomicgrowthandprofit,withalackofconcernforthecosttotheecosphere.Economicgrowthhasbeenandisnowthebasisofincreasingstandardoflivingbutisconsumingnaturescapitalandcreatingindustrialwasteandair,waterandsoilpo
llution.
Economicgrowthaspresentlyconceivedcannotcontinueespeciallyaslessdevelopedcountriesattempttoattainthehighconsumptionlevelsofthemoredevelopedcountries.Naturehaslimits.
Currentindicesofgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)donotreflecttheecologicalcostoftheconsumptionofresourcesandconcernforthelongertermfutureoftheplanet.
Economicsistakingpriorityovertheenvironmenttothedetrimentofthelongtermhumanlifeontheplanet.ACTIONREQUIRED
EconomistsmustnowbandtogethertocreatenewapproachestoeconomictheoryandpracticestoincludelongertermimpactsofconsumptionoftheEarthscapitalresources.
Newindicesofthetruestateoftheeconomymustbedevelopedtotakeintoaccounttheconsumptionofnaturescapitalandthelossofunrenewableresources.Businessmustre-examineitsroleinviewinggrowthastheonlywaytosucceed,andfindwaystosatisfyANewEthicforHumankind
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shareholdersintheshorttermwithoutpollutingtheearthandunnecessarilyconsumingresources.E.VALUES
FACTS
Governments,andtheirleaders,aretoooftenwaitingforthepeopletodemandstricterstandardsforpopulation,energyandtheenvironmentandnotprovidingthevision,courageandleadershiprequiredtocopewiththelongertermtrendsthatthreatentheplanet.
Lobbyingbyprivateandcommercialgroups,oftenassociatedwithlargesumsofmoney,hastoomuchinfluenceongovernmentdecisionsandlegislationtothepoin
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twherepublicinterestisbypassed.ACTIONREQUIRED
Governmentsmusttakealeadershiproleintheprotectionoftheenvironmentforthelongrangegoodofthepeopletheygovern,andnotbedelayedordivertedbylargefinancialinputsfromprivateinterests.Politiciansandthoseresponsibleforgovernmentdecisionsmustberesponsibletothepeopleandthepracticeoflobbyingbycommercialinterestsconstrainedormadeanopenbookavailabletoallcitizens.Governmentsshouldimplementaseniordepartmentontheenvironment,asinsomecountries,thatwillhaveseniorityoverotherdepartmentsandtherightofadviceandvetoinproposedlegislation
F.OTHEROBSERVATIONS
Enoughstudieshavebeendoneontheaboveproblemsandconcerns;nowisthetimeforactiontobeANewEthicforHumankind
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responsiblestewardsoftheEarthtoavoidpolitical,social,economicandenvironmentaldifficulties.Wearepushingnatureslimits,andstrongercorrectiveactioncanbeputoffnolonger.
ThisGlobalManifestofocusesonissuesofpopulation,economicsandtheenvironment,toprotectthefiniteplanetweliveon.Itdoesnotcoverotherconcerns
suchaspoverty,humanrightsorarmedconflict..WecanlearnalotfromthestoryofEasterIslandinthePacificOcean:
http://www.eco-action.org/dt/eisland.htmlAndthatistheGlobalManifestowhichisfreelyavailableforcopyingandredistributionwithcredittoFredG.ThompsonandFuturescanConsulting.REFERENCES
1)www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/worldpop.html2)USGSwebsite:http://www.usgs.gov/3)http://www.oilcrisis.com/
4)http://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/default.asp5)http://www.worldwatch.org/pubs/paper/128/6)http://www.worldwatch.org/pubs/paper/ANewEthicforHumankind
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ChapterEight
SocialInventions
StuartConger,whenhewasExecutiveDirectorofaCanadiangovernmentprogramNewStart,conductedastudySocialInventionsandpublishedanin-housedocumentonitin1970.
IknewStuartasaninnovativethinkerwhenIwasinthefederalgovernmentsoIpaidattentiontothisstudyofhis.Hepointedoutinthestudythattherehavebeenmanytechnicalandscientificinventionsovertheyearsbutthedevelopme
ntofsocialinventionshasnotkeptpace.AfterCongerfirstpublishedhispaperonSocialInventions,itwaspublishedasanarticlein"TheFuturist"magazine1)ofAugust1973andattractedtheinterestofpeopleinEuropeactiveinthisfield.RobertJungk,aprominentEuropeanfuturist,andcreatoroftheprojectMankind2000,noticed"TheFuturist"articleonsocialinventionsandpassedthewordalongtothenewlyformedParisgroupInternationalFoundationforSocialInnovation.Theysentarepresentative,JeannineGueron,overtoNorthAmericatolearnofsocialinnovationsandintheprocesslookedupStuartCongerinOttawa.OnApril16,1975,sheconvenedameetingofinterestedpeopleintheOttawaareaandincludedmeinthatevent.
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GuerontalkedabouttheworkoftheFoundationandlearnedaboutsomeofthesocialinnovationswehadinCanada.ShealsoinvitedustoattendtheproposedconferenceonSocialInnovationtobeheldinParisonSeptember25,26,1975.
Iwasabletoattendtheevent2)andnotedthatshortlyafter,theorganizerssetuptheInstituteforSocialInventionsinEngland.ThiswasfollowedbytheircreatingtheANewEthicforHum