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A RETROSPECTIVE AND COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FOOD CRISES AND FOOD
INSECURITY IN THE REGION
Henri P. Josserand
2nd Working Group Meeting, 27-28 Oct. 2011
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50-year Retrospective, Comparison with S.E.
Asia
FAO Food Security Analysis Framework
Prevalence of Undernourishment
Crises and other Explanatory Variables
Index of Vulnerability to Food Insecurity
Links to Climate Change, Regional Trade
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Low and Falling
Medium and Stable/ High but Falling
High and Stable or Rising
Ghana, Nigeria, Mali, Mauritania, Benin, Burkina Faso
Senegal, Guinea, Côte d’Ivoire, Cape Verde, Niger, Cameroon, Gambia
Togo, Chad, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Guinea-Bissau
•All regions of Africa have made progress, but West African undernourishment rates are lower than in Eastern, Central and Southern Africa. •Undernourishment rates are generally lower in S.E. Asia (and more likely to remain so).
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Heterogeneity Tripling of Population, Expansion-based Production Persistent Low Agricultural Productivity Growing Regional Reliance on Cereal Imports Threats to Gains in Food Security: Regional Demographics > 2050 World Leader Nigeria: a Tottering Agricultural “Giant” Weak Adaptive Capacity High Conflict Risk
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'Peace
Dividend'
Benin 200
Cape Verde 200
Togo 152
Ghana 105
Cameroon 72
Mauritania 63
Guinea 32
Burkina Faso 20
Gambia 20
Mali 19
Senegal 17
Niger 14
Nigeria 13
Guinea-Bissau 11
Sierra Leone 9
Cote D’Ivoire 9
Liberia 8
Chad 6
Derived from the Uppsala Conflict Data Programme and UCDP/PRIO, Oslo
Estimated Impact of Various Levels of Conflict, Frequency and Duration
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“Straightforward” Factors: Productivity (resources, public/private investment, policies) Population and Social Conditions Crises Complex Factors: Degree/rate of Urbanization Extent of Dependence on Cereal Imports
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RISK
COPING
MEDIUM
VULNERABILITY
LOW
VULNERABILITY
MEDIUM
VULNERABILITY
HIGH
VULNERABILITY
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RIS
K
Indicators Variables Exposure
Exposure to food insecurity (inherent)
a. Economic diversification
b. Market access
c. Import dependency
Share of VA from agriculture in total VA (%) Road density (km/100 km
2 of land)
Landlocked (dummy, 1 if landlocked) Cereal import dependency ratio (%)
Shock (exogenous) a. Natural disaster severity index
Slow onset Sudden onset Cereal production growth index
b. Man made disaster severity index Conflict Severity Index Inflation
Proportion of people affected by slow onset disasters (%) Number of people affected by slow disasters (1,000) Proportion of people affected by sudden disasters (%) Number of people affected by sudden disasters (1,000) Penalty for negative growth of per capita cereal production Proportion of IDPs and refugees (%) Number of IDPs and refugees (1,000) Change in consumer price index (%)
CO
PIN
G C
AP
AC
ITY
Coping Capacity
Human coping capacity index (nurtured)
a. Health b. Education
Economic coping capacity index (nurtured)
a. Economic performance b. Resource mobilization
Under five mortality rate Adult literacy rate Secondary gross enrollment ratio GDP per capita (constant 2005 $) Foreign reserves (current US$) as % of GDP
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Population Growth Resource Endowment Investment in Agriculture, Productivity Coping Capacity Density of Economic Activity
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Climate Change: New Patterns of Settlement, Redistributed Comparative Advantages
World Commodity Markets: Increased Price Volatility along a Rising Trend Regional Dynamics: Essential to Successful Adaptation, Require Security/Stability Increased Investment Improved Governance
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Thank You!