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Dr. Lori M. Hunter
Associate Professor of Sociology and Environmental Studies, CU-Boulder
Prepared for CUPC Environmental Demography Short Course, July 2008
Population and Environment Scholarship:
A Review and Considerations
for the Future
Presentation Outline
• Background
• Links to “Classic” Theory
• Recent Advancements and
Research Examples
• Future Considerations
• Conclusions
Presentation Outline
• Background
• Links to “Classic” Theory
• Recent Advancements and
Research Examples
• Future considerations
• Conclusions
Environmental Demography
• Integration of environmental
context into scholarly
examination of demographic
dynamics
• Disclaimer: My lens is one of a
Sociologist-Demographer
– Important to bring this body of
literature to other relevant
disciplines …
Environmental Demography
• Tackles many topics and
takes many forms ...
Population Size/Density
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Population
– Size/Change
– Households
– Density
Environment
– Household
decisions
regarding land
use (crop
production)
Fertility
Environment
– Natural
resource
dependence
Population
– Fertility
preferences
– Reproductive
behavior
Mortality
Population
– Mortality as
shaped by
HIV/AIDS
pandemic
Environment
– Land tenure
institutions
– Household
decisions regarding
land use
Migration
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Environment
– Rainfall
Population
– Household
decisions regarding
out-migration
PopulationEnvironment
Mediating
Factors
Science &
Technology
Culture
Policy
Environmental
Demography
• Interdisciplinary social science: Sociology, Human
Geography, Economics, Anthropology
• Yet given additional focus on environmental context,
often collaborate with natural scientists –
ecologists, remote sensing experts, etc.
As a “sub-discipline”
within Demography …
• Not entrenched or well-
recognized;
• A decade ago ….
….1998 PAA Presidential Address
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Pebley’s Central
Arguments
• Malthus’ legacy?
– Taken for granted that pop growth
impacts environment?
• Central causes of env decline NOT
demographic, therefore
inappropriate areas of study?
• Difficulties inherent in
interdisciplinarity
• Data access difficulties
As a “sub-discipline”
within Demography …
• Not entrenched or well-
recognized;
• Small handful of sessions
devoted to topic in annual
meetings;
Recent History
• PAA 1992:
– 1 session: “Demography and the Environment”
• PAA 1995:
– 4 sessions:
• Developing a conceptual framework for p & e
• Human ecology
• Land use, population and environment
• Water, population and environment
• PAA 2004:
– 4 sessions
• Land use, land cover change, demographic processes
• Population, environment, and health
• Population, development, and the urban environment
• Population, water resources, health and development
• PAA 2008
– 4 sessions
• Health and Environment
• Population and Environment: Making use of secondary data sources
• Population, Development and Natural Resources
• Many sessions on Hurricane Katrina
As a “sub-discipline”
within Demography …
• Not entrenched or well-
recognized;
• Small handful of sessions
devoted to topic in annual
meetings;
• Few publications in core
journal, Demography, since
2000.
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As a “sub-discipline”
within Demography …
• Not entrenched or well-
recognized;
• Small handful of sessions
devoted to topic in annual
meetings;
• Few publications in core
journal, Demography, since
2000.
Don
’
t be discouraged
---
we
’
re at the cutting edge !
And we find “like minds” among many
scholars that probably wouldn’t
self-identify as demographers
Presentation Outline
• Background
• Links to “Classic” Theory
• Recent Advancements and
Research Examples
• Future considerations
• Conclusions
Presentation Outline
• Background
• Links to “Classic” Theory
• Recent Advancements and
Research Examples
• Future considerations
• Conclusions
Where’s the theory?
PopulationEnvironment
Mediating
Factors
Science &
Technology
Culture
Policy
Lack detail
Lack directionality
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Links to “Classic” Theory
• Boserup (1965+)
• Ester Boserup, The Conditions of Agricultural Growth:
The Economics of Agrarian Change under Population
Pressure. 1965.
• Contrast with Malthus – “positive checks”
Population
– Size/Change
Density
Environment
– Agricultural
intensification
Links to “Classic” Theory
• Boserup
– Bilsborrow and colleagues
• Human Ecology: POET, IPAT
P O
E T
P O
E T
www.stirpat.org
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Links to “Classic” Theory
• Boserup
– Bilsborrow and colleagues
• Human Ecology: POET, IPAT
• Specific to migration:
– Wolpert
– Zelinsky
– V-E model
– Speare
Table 1: Classic Migration Theories and the Potential Placement of Environmental Hazards
Petersen 1958 General Typology of Migration
“A General Typology of Migration.” American Sociological Review. 23: 256-266.
Potential placement of environmental hazards: As ecological "push" factor yielding migration as an "innovative" response.
Wolpert 1966 Stress-Threshold Model
Key citation: “Migration as an Adjustment to Environmental Stress.” Journal of Social Issues. 22, 4:92-102.
Potential placement of environmental hazards: As "stressors"
Zelinsky 1971 Mobility Transition Hypothesis
Key citation: “The Hypothesis of the Mobility Transition.” Geographical Review. 61:219-249.
Potential placement of environmental hazards: As related to
"personal preferences."
Speare 1974 Residential Mobility Decision-Making Model
Key citation: “Residential Satisfaction as an Intervening Variable in Residential Mobility.” Demography 11, 2:173-188.
Potential placement of environmental hazards: As "locational characteristics"
Various contributors Neo-Classical Migration Models
Summary: DaVanzo, J. 1981. "Microeconomic Approaches to Studying Migration Decisions." in De Jong, G.F. and R.W.Gardner (Editors),
Migration decision making: multidisciplinary approaches to microlevel studies in developed and developing countries. pp. 90-129. New York: Pergamon Press.
Example: Harris, J.R. and M.P. Todaro. 1970. "Migration, Unemployment and Development: A Two-Sector Analysis." American Economic Review. 70: 126-142.
Example: Graves, P.E. 1983. “Migration with a Composite Amenity: The Role of Rents.” Journal of Regional Science , 23(4): 541-546.
Potential placement of environmental hazards: As a "location-specific disamenity."
DeJong and Fawcett 1981 Value-Expectancy Model
Key citation: “Multidisciplinary frameworks and models of migration decision making” in De Jong, G.F. and R.W.Gardner (Editors),
Migration decision making: multidisciplinary approaches to microlevel studies in developed and developing countries. pp. 13-58. New York: Pergamon Press.
Potential placement of environmental hazards: As a personal value/goal of
"comfort."
Gardner 1981 Macro-Micro Decision-Making Model
“Macrolevel Influences on the Migration Decision Process” Chapter 3 (pp. 59-89) in G.F. De Jong and R.W.Gardner (Editors),
Migration decision making: multidisciplinary approaches to microlevel studies in developed and developing countries. New York: Pergamon Press.
Potential placement of environmental hazards: As a locational characteristic in conflict with "what people value."
Links to “Classic” Theory
• Boserup
– Bilsborrow and colleagues
• Human Ecology: POET, IPAT
• Specific to migration:
– Wolpert
– Zelinsky
– V-E model
– Speare
Questions remain ….
…. as to the ability to generalize, generate theory.
PopulationEnvironment
Mediating
Factors
Science &
Technology
Culture
Policy
But interesting advances (e.g.,
Bilsborrow
’
s work), and frameworks
are always useful!
Presentation Outline
• Background
• Links to “Classic” Theory
• Recent Advancements and
Research Examples
• Future considerations
• Conclusions
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Methodological Advancements
Argue that P-E is distinct field
of study:
1) Critical mass of scholars;
2) Joint research questions;
3) Emerging body of
methodologies.
Futures/Spatial Models
Population Research and Policy Review, 2003
Land Use Change
1990s
1970s
Image Source: GIS at UICU
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1970s 1990s
Change
Probability of Development
Logistic regression model estimating change in
development,1970s-1990s, as function of:
proximity to existing development;
percentage of surrounding cells developed;
presence within city boundary;
distance to primary road;
distance to secondary road;
slope.
Probability of Development
Population Projections:
Nearly 1 million increase, 1990-2020
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Based on State of
California, county-level
projections.
Assume linear increase
in proportion county
population located within
study region.
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Model-based Scenarios:
“Trend”
trends, existing regulation
“what if ?”;
demonstrate implications of land use decisions:
– zoning changes;
– new roads;
– land swaps.
Planning-based Scenarios
“Trend”
vs.
“New Roads”
Biophysical focus:
habitat lost as measured by
species richness
T&E
endemic
Assessment and Evaluation
T&E
Habitat
T&E conflict across
demographic scenarios
Population Projections,
Current Pop Density
Population Projections,
High Pop Density
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Endemic
conflict
http://www.csis.msu.edu/home.htm
http://www.indiana.edu/~cipec/
Research Examples
Fertility Mortality Migration
•Carr, Pan and Bilsborrow 2007
•Ghirimire and Hoelter 2007
•Yabiku 2006
•Biddlecom, Axinn and Barber 2005
•Barberi, Carr, Bilsborrow 2008
•Henry et al. 2004
•Frank and Unruh 2008
•Hunter, Twine, and Patterson 2007
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Fertility
Nepal, availability of ag land + assoc with marriage rates.
Nepal, availability of ag land + assoc with first births
Nepal, dependence on local resources + assoc with family size pr eference
Mortality
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South Africa, mortality -impacted HHs + likely to depend on natural resources
Migration
Research Examples
Fertility Mortality Migration
•Pan and Bilsborrow 2005
•Van Wey, Altona, and Brondizio 2007
•Many Entwisle et al. publications
Land Use Change
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Research Examples
Fertility Mortality Migration
Land Use Change
Social-Environmental Stratification
•Anderton et al. 1994
•Davidson and Anderton 2000
•Mohai and Saha 2006
•Many Downey et al. publications
Overall …..
• In 2002, Lutz et al. stated there were “several hundred P-E
studies published in the formal literature … [although] it is hard
to come up with a precise figure because the bounds of the field
are fuzzy and one must largely rely on self-identification of the
authors.”
• Grown in past 5 years, in numbers and sophistication.
– Good news but range of questions, methods and settings complicates
development of comprehensive understanding.
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Presentation Outline
• Background
• Links to “Classic” Theory
• Recent Advancements and
Research Examples
• Future Considerations
• Conclusions
• Informed by:
– Desire for strategic advancement in field;
• Substantively, theoretically, methodologically
– Desire for intellectual community although
broadened impact;
– Desire for scholarship of social relevance.
Considerations for Future
• Engage other relevant audiences while
cultivating connections within demographic
community;
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/
.. Including the “applied”
community which can provide
excellent entrée to important
study sites …
“PHE” Program Example:
Gilutongan Island, Philippines
• Population pressure (TFR ~3.5)
• No health services
• Environmental degradation
– land and sea
• Integrated Intervention
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Philippines
Madagascar
Kenya
Tanzania
DR Congo
Cambodia
Nepal
Rwanda
Uganda
USAID-Supported “PHE” Projects
• Engage as a community of scholars and
practitioners through PERN;
http://www.populationenvironmentresearch.org/
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• Publish in “mainstream” disciplinary-specific
journals, while supporting interdisciplinary
outlets
– Population and Environment
• Consider course offerings in order to train on
topics and methods;
• Be strategic about remaining research
questions ….
Many remain !
Especially in areas of
resource scarcity
On Fertility:
On Morbidity / Mortality
On Migration:
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On Household Life Cycle:
This work is needed …..
Pebley (1998):
“By absenting ourselves from scientific and
popular debates on population and environment
in recent years, we have allowed simplistic
approaches to flourish without the criticism or
insight that could be provided by the results of
demographic insight.”
• Indeed, people and programs need our science
…… let’s get going!
Presentation Outline
• Background
• Links to “Classic” Theory
• Recent Advancements and
Research Examples
• Future Considerations
• Conclusions
Dr. Lori M. Hunter
Associate Professor of Sociology and Environmental Studies, CU-Boulder
Prepared for CUPC Environmental Demography Short Course, July 2008
Population and Environment Scholarship:
A Review and Considerations
for the Future