AABI Town Hall MeetingEmployer Comments on USAAP
Lacey PittmanAssistant Chief Pilot
Horizon Air
February 15, 2012
AAG Pilot Hiring Road Map
Alaska Air Group Objective:
Conduct a joint AAG effort to ensure a sufficient supply of qualified First Officers for Horizon and Alaska through 2018.
1. Forecast Hiring Needs2. Anticipate Supply of Pilots3. Develop a Strategy to Attract and Retain
AAG Pilot Hiring Road MapForecast Hiring Needs
AS Hiring Forecast
0
50
100
150
200
Ann
ual H
irin
g Vo
lum
e
AS Fleet Growth 33 33 99 88 66 66 88 88
AS Attrition 12 24 36 48 29 51 59 57
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Current assumptions through 2018:Forecasted Hires: 877Fleet Growth: 48Current annual attrition: 1.5%Number of pilots turning age 65: 248Utilization: 11 pilots per aircraft
Source: FP&A, Flight Ops Controller. Growth and attrition information is forward thinking and numbers could significantly increase or decrease
AAG Pilot Hiring Road MapForecast Hiring Needs
QX Hiring Forecast
0
100
200
300
Annu
al H
iring
Vol
ume
QX Fleet Growth 30 30 30
QX Attrition 52 84 234
2011 2012 2013
Current assumptions through 2013:Forecasted Hires: 460Fleet Growth: 10 Q400 aircraft optionsAnnual attrition: 17.03%Number of pilots turning age 65: 9Utilization: 10 pilots per aircraft
Source: QX Finance &Flight Ops Controller. Growth and attrition information is forward thinking and numbers could significantly increase or decrease
AAG Pilot Hiring Road MapAnticipate Supply of Pilots
UND Projects Pilot Shortfall >2000 Pilots per Year
AAG University Program Develop a Strategy to Attract and Retain
A company with its own program ensures the following:• controls company cost by limiting number of training
students in Initial program• control over who is hired and applicant pool• steady stream of pilots to it’s own company• best graduates do not get hired somewhere else• company can control time commitment to airline
AAG University Program Develop a Strategy to Attract and Retain
Jumpstart Program Investment vs Savings
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
Investment (1 unit equals $10K)
Savings
Jumpstart Program Payback
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
2000000
Cumulative Investment
Payback
Jumpstart Program Investment vs Savings
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Investment (1 unit equals $7K)
Savings
Jumpstart Program Payback
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
2000000
Cumulative Investment
Cumulative Payback
AAG University Program Develop a Strategy to Attract and Retain
AAG Pilot Hiring Road MapUSAAP Pros:
• Affordable for the student• Shared investment for all • National solution to national problem
AAG Pilot Hiring Road MapUSAAP Cons:
• The program does not require time commitments at 121 carriers who invest heavily in Initial students.
• The program almost encourages movement towards a major as quickly as possible. This is negative for regional airlines who need to earn back the initial investment of training.
• There is no bridge from Commercial to 1500 hours. • Eats the seed corn of the universities. Does not encourage the
value of instruction time.• Does not ensure a steady stream of USAAP pilots to a given
regional.• No ownership on part of students• Do not have to identify airline for which to train• Government will dictate the process• Increased government bureaucracy in AAG’s hiring strategy
AAG Pilot Hiring Road MapQuestions for USAAP:
• AAG objective is to attract and retain qualified pilots. What is to retain a USAAP pilot?
• Why would a student stay at a regional?• Regional airlines want to limit the number of Initial training cycles for new
hires. Where is the time commitment piece for staying at a regional?• What is to prevent a candidate from being hired at a participating
regional then leaving after 6 months for a participating major?• Would the student identify a carrier at the beginning of the program they
are targeting?• At what point does the airline get involved in the process? Marketing,
brand recognition, etc.• How will a student bridge the gap from the program’s commercial
certificate (no-ATP) to 1500 hours? Even if a credit is given for AABI institutions?
• Where is the give-back to the universities? Contract to instruct, time commitment, etc.
• How does a participating regional airline ensure a steady stream of USAAP pilots? Especially if the regional has a long upgrade time, no jets, etc.