Achievements of KTX project for the past year and
improvement measures
November 8, 2005
Yong Sang, LEE
- Analysis of one-year operation of KTX since opening
- Comparison with Japan’s Shinkansen performances
- Improvement measures (Expanding demand, etc.)
Consciousness of issues
- Rose 40% in demand of Kyungbu line, 16% in Honam line
- Rose 204% in revenue of Kyungbu line, 161% in Honam line
- Korea marks 44.6% out of forecast demand figure
- While Japan marks 46.4% at its first year, 64.9% at its 2nd, 78.8% at third, 89.1% at fourth, 96.3% at fifth, 95.8% at sixth
Change of transport capacity over time
TotalHonam line
Kyungbu lineTotalHonam lin
eKyungbu line
1,6083181,2903,1495132,636Total
1,6083181,290991203788Other trains
2,1583101,848KTXDaily average revenue
1403110919036154Total
140311091162492Other trains
741262KTXDaily average
transport capacity
588,740116,514472,2261,149,072187,037962,035Total
588,740116,514472,226361,57774,041287,536Other trains
787,495112,996674,499KTX
Revenue
51,40211,46339,93969,19613,26855,928Total
51,40211,46339,93942,2658,86533,400Other trains
26,9314,40322,528KTXTransport capacity
April 1, 2003~March 31, 2004April 1, 2004~March 31, 2005
Figure 2. Comparison of transport capacity in pre/post KTX era
(Unit: 100,000 persons, 1 million won)
201(100)236151179(89.1)1967
196319621957
286(100)316193352(123.1)1974
273(100)302187341(124.9)1973
261(100)288181297(113.8)1972
250(100)276175265(106.0)1971
259(100)263169279(107.7)1970
238(100)266163228(95.8)1969
218(100)251156210(96.3)1968
184(100)223142145(78.8)1966
165(100)204133107(64.9)1965
84(100)8412839(46.4)1964
ForecastPerformanceYear
Figure 3. Demand forecast and performance in figure of Tokaido Shinkansen
(Unit : 100 mil. persons·km)
2004~2005
2003~2004
Increase Difference
Upward 1,502 633 869 237
Downward 1,502 662 840 227
Total 3,005 1,296 1,709 232
Year
Bound
(Unit : 1000 persons, %)
Figure 4. Change of demand: Kyushu Shinkansen
Comparison between Korea and Japan
- Though demands of the two countries stood similar at first, Korea is regarded to have performed below expectations considering the nation had the edge over Japan with economic power and speed at the starting point.
- This seems to be the result of the railway-oriented system in case of Japan while Korea was road centered and the usage of conventional line accounts for 66%.
Korea(2004) A
Japan(1964) B
A/B
Population 483.8 mil. 971.8 mil. 0.49
GDP per capita
U$12,000 U$3,000 4.0
Extension of high speed
railway408.8km 515km 0.8
Operation hrs.
2 Hrs.40 Min. 4 Hrs. 0.8
High speed rail demand
62,000 persons
60,538 persons
1.0
(as of the period when Kyungbu high speed rail opened)
Figure 5. Comparison of population and economics
Division Japan Korea
Opening yearTokaido Shinkansen 19
64Kyungbu and Honam lin
es 2004
Usage of conventional line
0% 66%
Schedule speed 129km 154km
Railway extension at opening
20,681km 3,129km
Road extension at opening
181km 2,778km
Transport system Railway centered Road centered
Figure 6. Comparisons of status at opening
- KTX showed 91.7% punctuality by five minutes, better on time than the Netherlands, Sweden, Germany and Britain
- Figure shows that Korea had a more stable start. Japan was very unstable in system in its Infant stage, marking 21 cases of more-than-two-hour delay within a year
- Number of safety dysfunction came to 127 in Korea, 214 in Japan on its first year of operation, 251 on its second year.
Punctuality and train accidents
Nation Punctuality(%)
Japan(JR) 98.3
Spain(RENFE) 96.7
France(SNCF) 93.4
Korea(KTX) 91.7
The Netherlands(NS) 90.7
Sweden(SJ) 89.3
Germany(DB) 89.0
U.K. 84.5
Figure 7. Comparison of punctuality (by 5 minutes)
Division
1964 1965 1966 1967
Number of accident
214 251 153 86
Year 1968 1969 1970 1971
Number of accident
78 88 70 99
Year 1972 1973 1974 1975
Number of accident
168 207 260 254
Year
Figure 8. Number of accident at infant stage of Shinkansen
- Demand of flight between Seoul~Daegu
slashed by 71.5%, Seoul~Busan by 29.5%
- Shinkansen between Tokyo~Nagoya brought
air travel down to zero in four years of
operation
Influences Since KTX Operation
Distance
Transport means
1963 1964 1965 1966 1967
Tokyo
~
Nagoy
a
Railway(number
of passenge
r)
5.078 mil.
(96%)
6.116 mil.
(97%)
6.955 mil.
(99%)
7.261 mil.
(99.7%)
8.323 mil.
(99.9%)
Air218,000
(4%)291,000
(3%)94,000(1%)
22,000(0.3%)
11,000(0.1%)
Total5.296 mil.
6.407 mil.
7.049 mil.
7.283 mil.
8.334 mil.
Figure 9. Railway-Flight ratio between Tokyo~Nagoya
KTX Shinkansen
Number of passenger
62,000 60,538
Performance against demand
forecast44.6% 46.4%
Punctuality 98.9%(by 10 min.)
21 cases of more-than-two-hour delayAverage delay per unit vehicle is 1.7
min.
Operation dysfunction
(number of cases)136 214
OutcomeFlight to Busan down by
30%Flight to Osaka down by 33%
Figure 10. Comparison of KTX-Shinkansen Performances
Improvement measures
- First, in order to create more needs, it is necessary to come up with strategic planning of restoration of connecting transportation, various rate system, improvement of ride comfort, attracting more office workers during week days, more family and group passengers over weekends.
- Second, punctuality is immediately related to reliability and trains should be operated on time.
- Third, problems with rolling stock, signal dysfunction and transmission, facilities must be solved to secure safety, in rail equipment as well.
- Finally, the second phase of high speed rail onstruction should complete at the earliest to maximize efficiency.
THANK YOU
Q&As