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ACHIEVING ABSOLUTE INFLUENCEMichael Taillard
A BRIEF HISTORY OF WARFARE
Religion: Conversion, Ideological Disagreements, Angering God, “Us vs. Them” Manipulation by Religious LeadersPolitics: Rights to Control, Empire Building, Political Power
Color Code by Dominant Cause:
Economics: Resource Rights, Taxation, Socioeconomic Disparity
Culture: Misunderstanding and Mistrust from Ideas and Behaviors; Can’t See “Eye to Eye”
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THE EMERGING PATH
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20th CenturyAccurate Mathematical Forecasting Models
20th CenturyInformation Warfare and Hacking
2002Ray Gun
Developments in the Application of Social Sciences
2012 Lightning Gun
2012 “Zombie” Gun
WW2Formal Development of Psyops Program
21st CenturySociological Analytics, Modeling, and Engineering
21st CenturyTargeted Economic Combat
1960sPsychotronics
2008 – Plasma Acoustic Shield System
1990sDrones
Developments in the Application of Physical Sciences
>4th Millennia BC – Spear
16th Century BC – Bow and arrow
~5,000BC – Sword
5th Century BC – Catapult
1040AD – Gun Powder
1846AD – Modern Bullet
PSYCHOLOGY
Idea Modification – Methods which manage what people believe about themselves, about others, about the combat theater, and about reality.
Emotional Modification – Methods which manage the way people feel about things, their degree of motivation and morale, and their overall mental health and readiness.
Behavioral Modification – Methods which manage the way people behave, interact with each other, organize themselves, the decisions they make, and respond to their surrounding environment.
PSYCHOLOGY EXAMPLES
Idea Modification – The spread and evolution of competing ideas within the opposition can be managed to create schisms which can then be exploited to create social conflict, disrupting operations at least, and at best turning them against each other in an internal war of ideologies. This has been illustrated by the division between US Republican and Tea Parties, E. German labor disputes disrupting resource production, and mutinies throughout history.
PSYCHOLOGY EXAMPLESEmotional Modification – Marketing and public relations principles allow for the management of public opinion, starting with the Mohawk Valley Formula which made people fear and loathe union members, successfully breaking strikes in the early 20th century. Becoming more sophisticated since then, we can now condition disabling fear responses in the opposition, and optimize exit strategies by replacing the dominant traits and beliefs in the social landscape.
Behavioral Modification – People organize in standard and predictable ways to form organizations, allowing one to exploit both structure and operations. Generally applied to business management, isolating teams to implement functional change within the opposition can simply alter their course of action, overall plan, or cooperation with the opposition.
ECONOMICS
Supply Manipulation – Methods which manage the availability and distribution channels of resources, capital, and labor, thereby managing not only operational strength and functionality, but also incentive to make specific decisions.
Trade Manipulation – Methods which manage the terms and value of transactions and the ability of various parties to participate in those transactions, thus managing the strength and functionality of each player in a combat theater.
Market Manipulation – Methods which monitor market forces to extract intelligence, and manages those market forces to actions of others and to optimize one’s own strength.
ECONOMICS EXAMPLES
Supply Manipulation – The US Civil War was won by eliminating the South’s ability to fight. The South couldn’t fund their operations after the North blocked Southern shipments of cheap, high quality cotton to the European nations using blockades and psychological attacks discouraging nations from associating themselves with Southern slavery. Sherman’s March destroyed supply lines, while Lincoln’s cooperation with the rail companies ensured vast and diversified distribution channels.
ECONOMICS EXAMPLES
Trade Manipulation – Counterfeiting almost defeated the US during the Revolutionary Era, the Soviet-friendly Afghan government during the Cold War, and many others, by challenging the legitimacy and value of the currency, making it difficult for them to fund their operations. If they can source supplies at all, it is much more expensive. This makes them desperate and likely to overlook sabotaged or otherwise inferior goods, which can be supplied by one’s own covert allies, creating a power shift as one side benefits by the opposition’s detriment.
Market Manipulation – US intelligence agents in South America monitored the price of black market diamonds, and correlated price jumps to ships entering port to identify undercover Nazi operatives attempting to purchase them for tools and instruments. This method provides insight into actions and plans, allowing one to manage their action by incentive, and control the progression of the conflict.
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ANALYTICS
Descriptive Analytics – Methods which precisely assess what is currently happening, improving one’s ability to appropriately respond to it.
Predictive Analytics – Methods which predict what is going to happen, when and where it will happen, who will be involved, and the impact of the event on each party. This also allows one to manage the relevant variables to alter the future course of events.
Operational Analytics – Methods which identify the best possible course of action to take, maximize speed and efficiency, and optimize resource distribution and usage.
ANALYTICS EXAMPLES
Descriptive Analytics – Statistical tests commonly used in the hospitality industry precisely assess changes in the environment to accurately identify geographic points of strength or weakness, and are easily adapted for military purposes.
Predictive Analytics – 2012 marked the 10th consecutive year that Los Angeles reduced their crime rate using predictive policing, which utilizes very basic predictive modeling.-7.6% in 2008, -4.6% in 2011, -1.4% in 2012
Operational Analytics – Lean analytics common in manufacturing, when applied to combat, will not only improve speed and accuracy, but will also reduce risk exposure
SYNERGY
There is a very large number of methods, and many successful examples of each.
Each is effective in their own right, but far more so when utilized together.
The effects of one operation creates opportunities to utilize more operations.
Example – • Utilize predictive software, with behavioral and market intelligence• Allows one to identify the early development stages of a coordinated opposition• Manage regional economics to stymie group’s development and operations• Utilize psychological methods to demoralize & turn public against organization• Offer rewards and incentive for leaving opposition and/or joining allies• Spread cultural ideas and condition a positive emotional responses to your image• Foster a good brand, imposing services to resolve discontent & improve life quality• Network to gain support of individuals influential in strategic social circles• Alienate and label persistent individuals as threats, gaining domestic police support• Dismantle their desire to fight, with isolated violence managed by domestic forces
PLANS
• Expand on that which is already proven effective by researching and developing new methods
• Custom-design strategies for use specifically by, and exclusively for each force
• Develop extensive series of planned responses to common military encounters and goals
• Directly supplement traditional military operations, then gradually replace them, slowly over time
These 3 books are merely a proof-of-concept historical review. The real work is just beginning.
RESULTS
• Increased efficacy and decreased resource utilization, thereby increasing total strength
• Minimized exposure of soldiers and resources to high risk scenarios
• Elimination of collateral damage and civilian casualties
• Exert invisible influence across globe
• Increased speed, accuracy, and efficiency in accomplishing military goals
• End conflicts before they begin, and dismantle opposition forces before they organize
• Improved global image by contributing to reduced deaths and image of world peace
• Improve response to politically-sensitive areas such as Iran and North Korea
Repurpose & rebrand the military from an organization that fights wars to one that ends wars
CLOSING THOUGHTS
“Weapons, being instruments of ill omen, are not the tools of the cultured, who use them only when unavoidable, and consider it best to be aloof. They win without beautifying it: Those who beautify it enjoy killing people. Those who enjoy killing people cannot get their will of the world.” -Laozi
“Those who win every battle are not really skillful—those who render others’ armies helpless without fighting are the best of all.” -Sun Tzu
Using force it is only possible to subdue one’s enemy, and little will have been accomplished once you have left. To win the war, the prevailing ideas and attitudes in the region must undergo a fundamental change that allows for sustained stability. This can only be accomplished using methods made available through the social sciences. This is how one successfully exerts their will on a global scale.
People must believe that they want what you are offering them. They will not respect one who brings war to their home. You must inspire them, offer them peace and prosperity, and operate in such a manner that they believe it is possible. Be the savior, not the soldier.