• HAMBURG| 26 SEPTEMBER 2013
Professor Alan McKinnon
Kühne Logistics University
Hamburg
Adapting Freight Transport to Climate Change
Second BIVEC-GIBET Chair Lecture
University of Rotterdam
23 March 2017
Mitigation
governmental and corporate perspectives
Freight Transport and Climate Change
Lecture 1
IPCC 5AR Synthesis Report 2014
‘Many adaptation and mitigation options can help address climate change, but no single option is sufficient by itself.’
‘Little research has so far been conducted on the inter-relationship between adaptation and mitigation strategies in the transport sector’
IPCC 5AR vol 3 Chapter 8 2014
Inter-relationship between mitigation and
adaptation in the freight transport sector
Liege 18 May 2017
Lecture 3
Adaptation
Lecture 2
Climatic trends and impacts
Vulnerability of freight transport to extreme weather and sea level rise
Scoping research on this subject
Adaptation strategies: challenges and issues
Wider logistics and supply chain perspectives
Positive impacts on freight transport?
Concluding thoughts
Outline
Session 903
Adapting Transportation to Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events
https://www.nap.edu/catalog/24648/transportation-resilience-adaptation-to-climate-change
4th EU-US Transportation Research Symposium (Brussels June 2016)
Adaptation of Transportation Systems to Climate ChangeAlready an Extensive Literature
6
Source: NOAA
Concentration of Greenhouse Gases since 1700
Probabilistic relationship between
GHG concentrations and increase
in average global temperature:
Source: Stern Review (2006)
Annual Greenhouse Gas Index
7
Increase in Average Global Temperature
Source: UK Met Office
Source: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences
IPCC AR5 High and Low Emission Scenarios for 2100
Currently on trajectory leading to 4-5o C average temperature rise by 2100
Source: IPCC AR5 vol 2. SPM
UNFCC COP 21 Conference on Climate Change December 2015
Bottom-up rather top-down approach to securing country commitmentsIntended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs)
International agreement to keep average global temperature ‘well below’ 2oC above pre-industrial times and ‘endeavor to limit’ them to 1.5oC
• Paris Accord came into effect: 4th Nov 2016
• No legal sanction on countries failing to meet targets
• Possible US withdrawal from the Accord?
Source: Ed Hawkins http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/07/27/spiral-tastic-climate-change-in-three-animations/
10
business as usual
current Nationally
Determined Contributions
(NDCs) (post COP21)
Much climate change already ‘in the pipeline’ which we cannot avert
Global Emission and Temperature Increase Scenarios
www.climatescoreboard.org (March 2017)
IPCC’s Recalibration of Risks at Given Global Temperature Increases: AR3, AR4 and AR5
Source: From Risk to Return: Investing in Climate Change Adaptation (2017)
Weather Extremes in 2016
Contraction of summer ice cover in the Arctic
octoberjuly
2016
2012
Mean 1981-2010
Arctic sea ice million sq km
2016 warmest year on record
Average global temperature
1.1oC above pre-industrial era
‘Extreme and unusual’
conditions continuing into
2017https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/nov/25/arctic-ice-melt-trigger-uncontrollable-climate-change-global-level
Natural Loss Events (Munich Re)
https://www.munichre.com/site/wrap/get/documents_E1656163460/mram/assetpool.munichreamerica.wrap/PDF/07Press/2015_World_map_of_nat_cats.pdf
Source: IPCC SREX (2011)
Intensity Duration
Frequency
5 dimensions of extreme weather
Spatial extent Timing
Climate Change Impacts
Climate change likely to prove to be non-linear, requiring more rapid adaptation
May be grossly under-estimating the amount of effort, time and resources
that will be required for adaptation and climate proofing
Global Mean Sea-level Change 1993-2016
relative to 1993-2016 mean
15Source: World Meteorological Organisation (2017)
Source: IPCC AR5 (2013)
Representative Concentration Pathways
(highways for evacuation)
(flood risk from sea) (flood risk from rivers)
Predicted Rise in Sea Level by 2100
Source: Rijkswaterstaat
2014 U.S. National Climate Assessment
Projected rise in average sea level by 2100
18
Rail Freight
Road Freight
19
Inland waterways
Maritime transport
Aviation
Coastal airports at risk from sea level
rise and storm surges
150-200 worldwide
Source: Thomas 2011
Vulnerability of Aviation to Extreme Weather / Climate Change
Rodrigue, 2013 /
Airports Council
International
21
Impact of Climate Change on Freight Transport
performance
demand
operations / services
transport infrastructure
logistics supply chain management
climate protection
other infrastructures
built environment
decarbonisation of other sectors
commodity mix
spatial pattern freight flow
geo-engineering
changes in consumer demand
relocation/rezoning of production
quantity of freight moved
redistribution of population
ECONOMY / SOCIETY
supply chains socio-economic activity
freight movement personal travel
traffic
transport
infrastructure
climate change
common infrastructure: shared benefit from adaptation schemes
differing priorities: allocation of constrained capacity and recovery services
inter-dependences: supply of fuel for passenger vehicles
commuting by logistics employees
consumer switching from conventional to online retailing
Inter-relationship between Freight and Passenger Transport in Adaptation Planning
delimitation of
the transport
adaptation
boundary?
Essence of Climate Change Adaptation in the Transportation Sector(US National Climate Assessment 2014)
protecting the transport system from climatic effects protecting economy and society from
transport system failures
Preparatory phase Disruption phase Recovery phase
US Gulf Coast Langedoc -
Mediterranean
Vermont 2011Central Europe 2013
MTA MHA
MAA MPortA
MPA
MUD
Metropolis
100oF for 30 days
risk assessmentcontingency planning
awareness raisingincreasing tolerances
real-time monitoring‘sense-and-response’ capability
inter-modal co-ordinationmulti-stakeholder networking
maximising resiliencerecalibrating models
refinancinglearning lessons
Three Stages of Adaptation Planning
EU-US symposium case studies
Analysis of the vulnerability and adaptation of transport and logistics to climate change
Analytical methods: ‘learning lessons’ (after Koetse and Rietveld, 2008)
• Geographical: comparing transport planning and operation across different climatic zones
• Temporal: comparing of climatic impacts on transport across different seasons
• Event-based: analysis of transport impact of extreme weather events e.g. Katrina
Disconnect between the climate scientists and the transport engineers : outputs of the climate models failing to meet engineering requirements
– Rare occurrence makes datasets small and sparse
– Extremes are hard to measure -instrumentation often performs poorly under extreme conditions
– Processes that generate extreme conditions are often complex and difficult to model.
inherent difficulty in analysing and planning for extreme weather events
Prof Jennifer Jacobs.
Translating Climate Science Data into Useful Information for Transport Planning
Geographical downscaling of climate data Incorporating downscaled climate data into
transport engineering models
Cornell University
EU Rain project
Relaxing ‘stationarity’ assumptions
can no longer extrapolate from historic data
trends may prove non-linear if ‘tipping points’ are crossed varying time-scales for climate-adaptive decision-making
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
ProjectConcept
Construction
in operation
Engineering and Design
AdoptedLong-Range Plan
Years
Facility Service Life
Transport Planning process
in operation
rate of climate change accelerating – need regular
recalibration
assets with differing life-spansand replacement cycles
Source: IPCC SREX Summary
for Policy-makers report (2011)
Scheduling of CC Adaptation for a Highway Authority
Source: UK Highways Agency
Impact of Technology
28
Technology in support of
adaptation and resilience
smart materials: e.g. self-healing concrete
new sensors big data / IoT
Transport technologies creating new
adaptation challenges
Developing Holistic Climate Resilience Strategies for Freight Transport
across critical infrastructures
infrastructural interconnections cause
propogation of disruptive effects
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/archive.html?year=2010&month=10
‘Climate change increases the risks of cascade failures, where a breakdown in one system has knock on effects on others.’
UK Committee on Climate Change (2010)
Weather Impacts: Inter-connections between Transport and Energy Infrastructures
D = level of damage P= Probability Source: Royal Academy of Engineering
Developing Holistic Climate Resilience Strategies for Freight Transport
31
across transport modesacross critical infrastructures
modal substitution as a
resilience option
infrastructural interconnections cause
propogation of disruptive effects
across disciplines
Insurance
Climate science
Logistics
Economics
Transport planning
Civil engineering
Behavourial sciences
across stakeholders
not simply an infrastructural responsibility
across jurisdictions
effects of extreme weather and
response mechanisms cross
political boundaries
need new communication strategies and
support tools to facilitate multi-agency
and multi-level co-ordination
presents particular challenges in
the EU, e.g. for the aviation sector
alignment of the resilience
metrics used by infrastructure
providers and users
sharing of information, risks
and costs with service
providers and users
‘the possible climate changes from 2005-2050 and their impact on both the Rhine and Danube
hydrology…..are not likely to be strong enough to induce any significant shift in modal shares.’
Beuthe et al, 2013
Role of Freight Modal Shift in Climate Change Adaptation
• relative vulnerability of different modes in different regions / corridors
• relative cost of climate-proofing different modes
• resulting modal shifts may conflict with climate mitigation efforts
Legal requirement to fit winter tyres
http://heavy.com/tech/2015/10/best-snow-tires-all-season-
online-reviews-hankook-goodyear-blizzak-xice/
http://trafficsafe.org/index.php/haulage-fleets-urged-to-plan-winter-tyre-changes-9641/
40% more traction in extreme winter conditions
Compulsory fitting of winter tyres:
Balance of risk, responsibility and cost between road user and infrastructure provider
maintain adequate inventory of road salt
no mention of winter tyres
Balancing Infrastructure Provider and Freight Operator Responsibilities
34
lower inventory
less redundancy
greater resilience
less disruption faster recovery
critical trade-off
less capacity
operational efficiency
value of business continuity
impact on business
probability of
disruptionhigh
lowhigh impact low
probability
high
Modifying Supply Chain Strategies to Accommodate Increased Climate Risk
• difficult to quantify probability and impact
• depends on actions of other organisations
• complicated by the interaction of several risk factors
• very difficult to build a financial case
Relaxing JIT pressures for climate change adaptation as well as mitigation
35
Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5
All movements of lorries
over 3.5 tonnes
cease at 12am
Most mail services and
parcel deliveries stop
No newspapers
Manufacturers operating
on a just-in-time basis
suspend operations
No supplies of fresh
produce in grocery
outlets
Supermarket stocks of
many perishable /
short shelf-life
product run out,
including bread, milk
and eggs
Milk disposal on farms
More manufacturing in
low-inventory sectors
closes down
Shortage of cash in banks
and ATMs
Construction work ceases
on most building sites
Growth of farmers’
markets
Most petrol stations run
out of fuel
Around 15% of the car
fleet without fuel
Supermarket stocks of
fast-moving grocery
lines exhausted
Introduction of rationing for
fuel and some food
products
Fast food outlets close
Widespread lay-offs from
manufacturing sector
Busier pubs run out of
beer
Slaughter of poultry on
farms
Petrol stations run dry
Most of the manufacturing
sector shut-down
Most non-electrified rail
services suspended
Serious cash shortages
Bus companies reduce off-
peak frequencies,
esp. in rural areas
Gas and water utilities
disrupted by lack of
fuel and spare parts
Congestion at ports stops
off-loading of vessels
Half of the car fleet without
fuel
Large proportion of the
labour force laid-off or
unable to travel to
work
Retail stocks of most
grocery products
exhausted
Almost all manufacturing
closed down
Severe disruption of the
health service
Serious problems from the
accumulation of waste
Range of non-food
products in shops
substantially depleted
Chronology of national-level freight disruption: life without trucks (UK)
Panic buying accelerates the erosion of inventory and collapse of the system
Source: McKinnon (2006)
Concentration of Freight Flows by Node, Corridor and Cluster:
increasing vulnerability to climate change
Container shipping lines focus on ‘hub ports’
World’s 50 busiest container ports 2012
Increasing vessel size limits
port access
Source: UNCTAD (2012)
http://www.movehub.com/blog/busiest-shipping-container-ports
Concentration of Freight Flows by Node, Corridor and Cluster:
increasing vulnerability to climate change
37
Increased use of hub and spoke networks Channelling flows through corridors
Malacca Strait (2010)
25% of world seaborne trade
33% of crude oil flows
Centralisation of inventory
‘square root law of inventory’
Regional clustering
Focused production
Agglomeration benefits
vs
Supply chain risk
Regional clustering of production
agglomeration benefits
vs
supply chain risk
Product A
Product B
Product C
Product D
Distribution
Nationally-
based
Production
Focused
Production
in pan-
European
plants
Source: Cooper 1993
Concentration of hard-drive production
30% drop in global production
Thai floods 2011
38
exposure of location to extreme weather
vu
lne
rab
ility
of
pro
ce
ss
to e
xtr
em
e w
ea
the
r
Auditing exposure to weather-related risk across the supply chain
Multiple-source from areas with differing risk profiles
Modifying Supply Chain Strategies to Accommodate Increased Climate Risk
Source: Maplethorpe. 2015
Climate Change Vulnerability Index 2015
Role of the Logistics Service Providers
• advising on supply chain risk: attaching greater weight to climate risk
• LSPs vary in their capability for dealing with supply chain disruptions
• an increasingly important criterion for LSP selection ?
EU EWENT project: (Ludwigson, 2012)(‘impacts of extreme weather on freight transport and logistics in Europe’)
Low willingness to increase organisational / channel robustness through• physical preparedness• acquisition of risk management skills
Poor understanding of weather-hazard probability – exacerbated by:• intra-organisational differences in the assessment of weather risks• under-estimating wider consequences of weather-related disruptions
Failure to commit sufficient resources to risk management and contingency planning
Typical views among logistics managers:
climate change is a longer term phenomenon that future generations of logistics managers can deal with.
bad weather is just another risk factor that can be accommodated within existing risk management / business continuity procedures
Managerial Attitudes and Responses
Infrastructure: risk assessments, stress tests and cost-benefit analyses (CBA)
41
Integrating climate risk
assessment into the management
of transportation assets
Stress testing to determine
vulnerability of transport
infrastructure and services
Revising CBA methodologies to
incorporate risk-adjusted discounted rates
and life-cycle costing of transport assets
Measuring and benchmarking the relative
cost-effectiveness of an extended range
of adaptation options
Determining the ‘right’ level of
transportation resilience
Measuring ‘adaptive capacity’ of
transport users as well as the
infrastructure.
value of benefits from extra £80 million investment in winter resilience measures
great uncertainty in financial modelling
Measuring and benchmarking the
relative carbon intensity of an extended
range of adaptation options
Need to minimise
‘carbon rebound’ effects
EU EWENT project estimated cost of extreme weather on the transport system of the EU 27 in 2010: €15.5-21.5 bn
Positive Impact of Climate Change on Freight Transport?
Source: WMO (2017)
Concluding Thoughts
• Adaptation studies are currently preoccupied with infrastructure planning; need more emphasis on the adaptation and resilience of logistical operations and services
• In the longer term climate change more force a relaxation of established business practices that currently increase supply chain vulnerability
• Need to broaden the scope of research on climate change adaptation in the freight / logistics sector to include the demand as well as performance impacts of climate change.
• In the field of freight transport / logistics, the climate change research agenda is currently dominated by mitigation.
• It is likely that this balance will tilt towards adaptation as the frequency and severity of weather-related logistics disruptions increases.
• There is a danger that adaptation efforts will prove very freight-transport intensive bringing them into conflict with pressures to decarbonize logistics.
• Need to examine more closely the inter-relationship between adaptation and mitigation in the freight transport / logistics sector.
Kühne Logistics University – the KLUWissenschaftliche Hochschule für Logistik und UnternehmensführungGrosser Grasbrook 1720457 Hamburg
tel.: +49 40 328707-271fax: +49 40 328707-109
e-mail: [email protected]: www.the-klu.org
www.alanmckinnon.co.uk
Professor Alan McKinnon