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Dave PetersonU.S. Forest Service
Pacific Northwest Research Station
Adapting to Climate Change:
A Risk Management Framework
Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest Climate Change Workshop
Everett, WA
April 28, 2011
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Management options for
adapting to climate change?
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• Emissions scenarios
• Global Climate Models (GCMs)
• Downscaling methods
• Effects models
• Interactions among multiple stressors
• Scale of effects assessment vs. management actions
Sources of uncertainty
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• Usually high confidence in broad scale projections
• High confidence in mid-21st century projections than late century
• High confidence in projections of some climate variables (temperature vs. precipitation)
• Evaluate the evidence and judge confidence in projected effects for specific areas – look for convergence among effects models
Uncertainty ≠ ignorance
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Address climate change effects as risk
• Uncertainty and risk management are common in natural resource management
• But climate change poses new risk management challenges Non-analog conditions Rapid rate of change Evolving scientific understanding Many interactions
Address adaptation as risk management
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A framework for adapting to climate change
1. Establish a science-management partnership
2. Identify scenarios for future conditions
3. Evaluate vulnerability and risk
4. Make “climate smart” decisions
5. Monitor, evaluate, and review
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Establish a science-management partnership
• Develop a cadre of scientists and managers with multiple areas of expertise
• Focus on a consensus range of issues and resource disciplines
• Work together towards final products and outcomes
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Information sources…
• Joyce et al. (2008). Adaptation Options for Climate-Sensitive Ecosystems and Resources. U.S. Climate Change Science Program.
• Littell et al. (2011). U.S. National Forests adapt to climate change through science-management partnerships. Climatic Change.
• Halofsky et al. (2011). Adapting to climate change at Olympic National Forest and Olympic National Park. U.S. Forest Service.
• Peterson et al. (2011). Responding to climate change on National Forests: a guidebook for developing adaptation options. U.S. Forest Service.
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Now available…
Climate Change Resource CenterU.S. Forest Service
http://www.fs.fed.us/ccrc
Information and tools for land managers
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Identify scenarios for future climate and potential effects
• Identify a range of climate and effects projections for your area (from multiple models)
• Focus on a time horizon relevant for decision making, but also consider longer term
• Consider observed trends and variability
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Extremes matter!
Standard deviation
1 in 40 yr high range
Frequency, extent, and severity of disturbances may
be affected by climate change, altering the mean
and variability of disturbance properties.
A shift in distribution
of fire regime
properties has a
larger relative effect
at the extremes than
near the mean.
A shift of 1 standard
deviation changes a
1 in 40 yr event to a
1 in 6 yr event
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Evaluate vulnerability and risks
• Start with existing conditions and stressors (sensitivity)
• Consider observed variability and trends along with projected trends (exposure)
• Determine adaptive capacity
– Potential for natural resources to respond favorably to an altered climate
– Capability of organizations and institutions to respond effectively
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Make “climate smart” decisions
• Strive for decisions that can accomplish objectives across a range of climate and effect projections
• Prioritize “no regrets” actions and projects with high probability of success/impact
• Use climate change as a context for
• Identifying options
• Evaluating tradeoffs among options
• Final decision
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• Truly implement adaptive management
• Environmental Management System framework: plan, act, monitor, adjust
Monitor, evaluate, and review
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• Has been used in 12 National Forests and 5 National Parks
• Has been documented in the peer-reviewed literature
• Is now incorporated in the national process used by the U.S. Forest Service
This adaptation framework…
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Increase resilience at large spatial scalesImplement treatments that minimize loss
of structural and functional groups
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Increase resilience at large spatial scalesIncrease landscape diversity
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Maintain biological diversityIdentify species and populations sensitive
to increased disturbance
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Maintain biological diversityExperiment with species and genotypes
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Implement early detection/rapid responseControl exotic species
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Implement early detection/rapid responseMonitor post-disturbance conditions
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Plan for post-disturbance managementAnticipate extreme events through
scenario planning
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Plan for post-disturbance managementIncorporate responses in planning
documentation
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We can do this!
• We have successfully addressed more difficult challenges in the past
• Climate smart management is mostly about managing for resilience to disturbance
• Choose your battles wisely
• Work with your neighbors – share your experiences
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Climate Change Resource CenterU.S. Forest Service
http://www.fs.fed.us/ccrc
Information and tools for land managers