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After 20 Years – and 10 Years More
Development of Global Aquaculture Seen from a
Danish Perspective
By Karl Iver Dahl-MadsenVicepresident of the Danish Academy
of Future ResearchTo FAME, June-05
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Anybody Remember?
From February 1986 What did we (I) say
at that time? What really
happened? And what about the
next 10 years?
Development Program for Danish Aquaculture
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What did FAO forecast
Global Produktion t/år
0
5.000.000
10.000.000
15.000.000
20.000.000
25.000.000
30.000.000
35.000.000
40.000.000
45.000.000
50.000.000
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
In 1984 FAO said 26 mio. tons/år in year 2000
FAO
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Trout in Freshwater
Fresh Water Trout
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
35.000
40.000
1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
t/yr
High Growth: 30.000
Median Growth: 24.000
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Quote on Freshwater Farming
The basis for high growth is a dramatic improvement of the water treatment technology, which may hard to do, as well technically as economically.
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Salt Water FarmingSalt Water Farming
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
t/yr
Median Growth: 17.000 (7.000 on land)
Low Growth: 4000; High Growth: 35.000
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Quote on Cage Culture
For economic viability for a family farm a 50-70 tons/year capacity is needed!
Today more than >1000 tons/year
A loss of 12 tons N/100 tons fish produced
Now it is <4 tons N
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Eel production
Eel Production
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1984 1989 1994 1999
t/yr
Median Growth: 3.500
High Growth: 6.000; Low Growth: 0
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Quote on Eels
It is hardly likely that the market will limit production growth!
Oops, the Chinese started exporting cheap eels to Europe
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Other Options
Goal Result
Cultured Mussels
15.000 <100
Seaweed 10.000 0
Warm Salt Water
3.000 <100
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Quote on Seaweed
In Denmark there is an interest for culturing seaweed with the aim of harvesting nutrients back to land
Today: Catchcultures
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And Prices…..
1984 InflationActual 2000
Seafarm 35 46 30Freshwater 15 24 14Eel 55 88 35
Sure… All food prices are steadily decreasing
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Today’s Situation
Proactive Business Community
National Aquaculture Committees
Attitudes have been changed
What lies ahead?
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The Global Framework Growth to 400 mio. tons/yr
– UN’s median population forecast: 10 billion people
– 7 times richer in 100 years
– And 40 kg per cap./yr Fishery will decline to
about 10 mio.tons/år
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Fish per Capita
0
5
10
15
20
25
1970 1980 1990 2000
Kg
pe
r C
ap
.
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The Future of Fisheries
WFD: High / Good Ecological Quality criteria can not be met
As it removes a high percentage of the fish existing production from the Sea
Can this continue?
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Demand for FishNot IMPACT, but KIBCB: Karl Iver’s Best Crystal
Ball
050.000.000
100.000.000150.000.000200.000.000250.000.000300.000.000350.000.000400.000.000450.000.000500.000.000
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
To
ns/
Yea
r
Fish demand Fish Caught
Aquaculture Demand Aquaculture
Fisheries
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Danish Scenarios
Morten Korch society
Business as usual
Growth Unlimited
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Morten Korch Soceity
New government with a very green environmental minister
Allies itself with anti industrial food production NGO’s
Aquaculture will slowly and painfully disappear
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Business as Usual
Stubborn fighting withdrawal from “green” NGO’s and politicised authorities
Cautious fish farmers: “We must not offend anyone”
Slow production increase Old and tired producers
retire? All is in the balance
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Growth Unlimited The positive
political climate continues
Finance is attracted Young, smart and
energetic people wants to work in aquaculture
Full speed ahead Norway
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Environmental EfficiencyAgriculture Ponds Seafarm
2000, after H. SchrøderSales value mio. kr 50.000 700 300Nitrogen Loss Tons 380.000 500 300N-Efficiency Mio. kr/tons 0,12 1,4 1
Why agriculture and not aquaculture: Equality before the law?
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Production Type & Environment
agriculture ponds seafarm
Hits, Google 11/10-01 No. 20.200 1.510 402Nitrogen Loss Tons 380.000 500 300N-Efficiency Hits/ton 0,05 3,02 1,34
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Seafarms: What did we miss?
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
To
ns/
year
Saltvand Seatrout Seatrout cb
Half a Great Belt Bridge: 2 Billion Euro
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Offshore Farming in the North Sea?
1 Million tons fish/yr: 200 km2
Plants / mussels for food and nutrient recycling: 2000 km2
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Catchcultures: Mussels and Seaweed
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New Species?
Sea Farm Committee:– Turbot, Sole– Not Cod!
Vegetarian species: Mullet
Perch/Pikeperch Exotic Fish:
Barramundi, Tilapia GMO?
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The Virtual Fish Farm
A 3D model of a fish farm
Including fish behaviour
Sensors all over: in the nets and in the fish too
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Offshore Fish Farms?
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And the Oceans?
Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion
Plenty of space, food and nutrients
http://www.nrel.gov/otec/apps.html
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Will There be Scarcity of Fish?
Fish Culture without water: Recirculation
Animal Culture without animals: an infinitely long fishfillet cell culture
The technical options are present
We will never have fish scarcity
But will Denmark be a supplier??
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Discussion