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After the Supreme Court Decision: What Happened? What’s Next?
Tom MillerAmerican Enterprise Institute
July 9, 2012
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The Ruling
• “It’s a big *#@?>! deal”• A strange “majority of one”• One door closes, another one opens• Tie goes to the government• Whatever doesn’t kill me makes me stronger!
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Let’s cultivate our gardens, in the best of all possible worlds
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The Chief’s Opinion
• Roberts: no commerce clause authority• Inactivity, can’t compel commerce• If necessary, it’s not proper• But, results-driven judgment call• There must be a tax in there, somewhere…
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Tax vs. Penalty:
Decepticons
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Without Limits, What Could Future Congresses Do?
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Medicaid Coercion
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Severability:Chainsaw, Implosion, or Weedwhacker?
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Post-Scotus Takeaway Points
• Exit fees, weak enforcement• Rewinding Medicaid?• CBO rescoring• Pressure on exchanges• Back to politics by usual channels• Overinvested in courts• Industry shrugs or smiles• Fed overreach didn’t start with mandate
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Is There a Health Policy Consensuson the Right?
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