1
Conference Call Credit Presentation
Financial Results for the Quarter Ended June 30, 2008
August 7, 2008(Revised as to slides 16 and 17)
2
It should be noted that the remarks made on the conference call may contain projections concerning financial information and statements concerning future economic performance and events, plans and objectives relating to management, operations, products and services, and assumptions underlying these projections and statements. It is possible that AIG's actual results and financial condition may differ, possibly materially, from the anticipated results and financial condition indicated in these projections and statements. Factors that could cause AIG's actual results to differ, possibly materially, from those in the specific projections and statements are discussed in Item 1A. Risk Factors of AIG's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2007, and in Item 2. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations of AIG's Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the period ended June 30, 2008. AIG is not under any obligation (and expressly disclaims any such obligations) to update or alter its projections and other statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
Remarks made on the conference call may also contain certain non-GAAP financial measures. The reconciliation of such measures to the comparable GAAP figures are included in the Second Quarter 2008 Financial Supplement available in the Investor Information section of AIG's corporate website, www.aigcorporate.com<http://www.aigcorporate.com/>.
Certain numerical information in this presentation may be slightly different from information contained in AIG's Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2008. Such differences are the result of rounding and are not material.
3
OUTLINE
• Capital Markets - AIG Financial Products
• Insurance Investment Portfolios
• Mortgage Insurance - United Guaranty
• Consumer Finance - American General Finance
• Conclusions
4
Capital Markets
5
Summary Statistics “Super Senior” Credit Derivatives
Transaction Type Regulatory Capital Arbitrage Total Prior
Quarter
Category CorporateResidentialMortgages Other¹ Subtotal Corporate
Multi-Sector CDOs
w/Subprime
Multi-Sector CDOs
w/No SubprimeSubtotal June 30,
2008March 31,
2008
Gross Notional ($ Billion)
$235.8 $163.1 $4.1 $403.0 $71.9 $79.6 $33.0 $184.5 $587.5 $622.3
AIGFP Net Notional Exposure($ Billion)
$172.7 $132.6 $1.6 $306.9 $53.8 $57.8 $22.5 2 $134.1 $441.03 $469.5
Number of Transactions 39 27 1 67 29 100 12 141 208 222
Weighted Average
Subordination (%) 4
23.2% 13.4% 12.1% 19.1% 18.9% 23.9% 16.3% 20.6% 19.6% 19.5%
Weighted Average
Number of Obligors /
Transaction
1,568 81,592 15,724 N.M. 5 127 196 109 N.M. 5 N.M. 5 N.M. 5
Expected Maturity (Years)
1.36 2.06 5.67 N.M. 5 4.47 5.07 6.27 N.M. 5 N.M. 5 N.M. 5
June 30, 2008
1. During the second quarter of 2008, a European RMBS regulatory capital relief transaction with a notional amount of $1.6 billion was not terminated as expected when it no longer provided regulatory capital benefit to the counterparty.
2. AIGFP’s net notional exposure increased by $5.4 billion during the second quarter due to the increase in the notional amount of a CDO of CMBS for which AIGFP entered into maturity-shortening puts on the super senior CDO security pursuant to a facility entered into in 2005.
3. Excludes $5.8 billion on mezzanine tranches representing credit derivatives written by AIGFP on tranches below super senior on certain regulatory capital relief trades.4. Weighted by Transaction Gross Notional. 5. Not meaningful.6. Maturity shown reflects first non-regulatory call date, although majority of transactions have regulatory capital calls from January 2008.7. Reflects the Weighted Average Life.
6
Regulatory Capital Corporate by Primary Jurisdiction
* The vast majority of deals have regulatory calls from January 2008. These calls are expected to be exercised over the next 9 - 21 months as the different originating banks in Europe are able to adopt the new Basel II Capital standards. The call date listed in the chart is the first non-regulatory call.
Exposure Portfolio
AIGFP Net Notional Exposure
($ Billions)
% of TotalExposure
Current Average
Subordination(%)
Realized Losses to Date
% of Pool
Weighted Average Maturity (Years)
Number of Transactions
Primarily Single Country To First Call * To Maturity
Germany $14.2 8.3% 21.8% 0.1% 2.5 7.6 6
USA $6.9 4.0% 40.8% 0.0% 0.3 11.8 1
Netherlands $5.0 2.9% 17.5% 0.0% 1.5 45.5 1
Portugal $4.4 2.6% 11.9% 0.1% 0.3 11.3 1
UK $2.2 1.3% 24.8% 0.0% 0.5 13.3 1
France $2.3 1.3% 20.7% 0.0% 0.5 0.5 1
Australia $1.8 1.1% 9.0% 0.0% 1.2 2.7 1
Finland $1.0 0.6% 22.6% 0.0% 0.5 6.5 1
Belgium $2.1 1.2% 34.3% 0.0% 0.6 5.4 1
Subtotal Single Country $39.9 14
Regional
Asia $2.7 1.6% 23.3% 0.0% 0.9 3.2 2
Europe $102.0 59.0% 23.1% 0.0% 1.2 5.6 16
North America $28.1 16.3% 21.4% 0.0% 1.8 2.1 7
Subtotal Regional $132.8 25
Total $172.7 100.0% 23.2% 0.0% 1.3 6.6 39
June 30, 2008
7
AIGFP Net Notional Exposure($ Billions)
% of TotalExposure
Current Average Subordination
(%)
Realized Losses to Date % of Pool
Weighted Average Maturity(Years)
Number of Transactions
To First Call * To Maturity
Denmark $40.2 30.3% 9.3% 0.0% 0.9 31.3 3
France $40.3 30.4% 8.3% 0.0% 1.5 31.2 7
Germany $20.9 15.8% 21.2% 0.2% 3.3 43.6 11
Netherlands $22.4 16.9% 18.1% 0.0% 3.4 9.0 3
Sweden $7.0 5.3% 17.8% 0.0% 1.4 34.7 2
UK $1.8 1.3% 10.0% 0.0% 0.7 22.7 1
Total $132.6 100.0% 13.4% 0.0% 2.0 28.3 27
* All of these deals have regulatory calls from January 2008. These calls are expected to be exercised over the next 9 - 21 months as the different originating banks in Europe are able to adopt the new Basel II Capital standards. The call date listed in the chart is the first non regulatory call.
European Residential MortgagesSummary by Geography
June 30, 2008
8
Applicable to:
($ Billions)AIGFP Net Notional
March 31, 2008Amortizations
New Derivatives
Written
Maturities / Early Terminations Other1
AIGFP Net Notional
June 30, 2008
Corporate –Regulatory Capital
$191.6 ($1.5) $0.0 ($14.4) ($3.0) $172.7
Residential Mortgages –
Regulatory Capital $143.3 ($2.3) $0.0 ($4.8) ($3.6) $132.6
Other –Regulatory Capital
$0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $1.6 $1.6
Corporate –Arbitrage
$57.1 $0.0 $0.0 ($3.4) $0.1 $53.8
Multi-Sector CDOs, of which: $77.5 ($2.1) $5.4 $0.0 ($0.5) $80.3
Transactions w/Subprime
$60.6 ($2.0) $0.0 $0.0 ($0.8) $57.8
Transactions w/No Subprime
$16.9 ($0.1) $5.4 $0.0 $0.3 $22.5
Total $469.5 ($5.9) $5.4 ($22.6) ($5.4) $441.02
Summary Statistics “Super Senior” Credit Derivatives
Change in Net Notional Amounts
1. Includes reclassifications and changes due to foreign exchange fluctuations and other adjustments. 2. Excludes $5.8 billion on mezzanine tranches representing credit derivatives written by AIGFP on tranches below super senior on certain regulatory capital relief trades.
9
September 30, 2007
December 31, 2007
March 31, 2008
June 30, 2008
Corporate -
Regulatory Capital
Reference Pool Losses 0.00% 0.01% 0.00% 0.01%
WAAP 21.30% 21.28% 22.90% 23.20%
Residential Mortgages -
Regulatory Capital
Reference Pool Losses 0.00% 0.04% 0.03% 0.04%
WAAP 13.09% 13.27% 12.90% 13.41%
Corporate –
ArbitrageReference Pool Losses 0.28% 0.28% 0.26% 0.26%
WAAP 16.01% 17.82% 18.70% 18.94%
Multi-Sector CDOsw/Subprime –High Grade
Defaulted Assets2 N.A. 0.09% 0.14% 1.06%
WAAP 15.33% 15.38% 15.50% 15.67%
Multi-Sector CDOsw/Subprime -
Mezzanine
Defaulted Assets2 N.A. 1.44% 2.24% 6.63%
WAAP 37.00% 37.29% 38.00% 39.35%
Reference Pool Losses vs. Weighted Average Attachment Point (WAAP)1
1. Reference pool losses for corporate and residential mortgage transactions. Defaulted assets for multi-sector CDO transactions.
2. Weighted average percentage of each CDO's collateral that has been defined as defaulted by the relevant trustee and sourced from Intex. The definition of defaulted assets can vary between deals but typically encapsulates all assets that have been downgraded to a level that is at, or below, the CCC rating category level. Assets in this category may or may not still be paying interest to the holder.
10
Rating Agency Actions• At June 30, 2008 all applicable rating agencies continued to rate 37% of AIGFP’s
$57.8 billion super senior credit derivative multi-sector CDO portfolio with subprime RMBS collateral at AAA levels. This is despite a significant number of CDO downgrades during 2007 and the first half of 2008. At July 27, 2008, this percentage was 36%.
• Through June 30, 2008, approximately $36.4 billion (63%) of the portfolio had been downgraded and $33.9 billion was on Credit Watch.
• Through July 27, 2008, $36.8 billion of the portfolio had been downgraded, bringing the total to 64% of the portfolio.
1. Summary information classifies a portfolio as on “credit watch” if any one of the agencies has placed that portfolio on Credit Watch. Summary information on downgrades uses the lowest rating of S&P, Moody’s, or Fitch.
Summary1 Through June 30, 2008 Through July 27, 2008
($ Billions) Downgraded toPlaced on Credit
Watch Downgraded to Placed on Credit Watch
AAA NA $3.5 NA $4.0
AA $11.4 $9.6 $11.8 $9.9
A $10.5 $7.8 $10.5 $7.7
BBB $3.8 $3.4 $3.0 $2.9
BB $4.7 $4.7 $4.7 $4.1
B $6.0 $4.9 $6.5 $5.5
CCC $0.0 $0.0 $0.3 $0.0
Total $36.4 $33.9 $36.8 $34.1
11
Process Followed for June 30, 2008 Accounting Valuation of Multi-Sector CDO Portfolio
Acquisition & Review of Third Party Prices of Collateral Securities
Benchmarking to Independent Sources
Run Modified BET Model
Overlay of Super Senior Bond Quotes
• Third Party prices are collected from CDO Managers;
• Obtained prices on about 75% of collateral securities;
• Derived final price by averaging in case of multiple quotes;
• Reviewed prices for consistency across ratings and vintages;
• Rolled forward May 31 prices to June 30 using data from a third-party pricing vendor.
•Prices for about 75% of securities are available from IDC;
• About 75% overlap between CDO Manager prices and IDC.
Key Inputs to Modified BET Model
• Pricing matrix for collateral securities for which no price was collected;
• WAL of securities from Bloomberg;
• Diversity scores from CDO Trustees;
• LIBOR curve for discounting cash flows;
• Recovery rates based on Moody’s multi-sector CDO recovery data.
• Convert collateral security price to credit spread and market-implied default probabilities;
• Use key inputs to run BET model;
• Use cash-flow diversion algorithms;
• Calculate mark-to- market for each multi-sector CDO transaction.
• Obtained super senior bond quotes from about 20 different third parties;
• Overlay super senior bond quotes to the modified BET model results.
12
Stress Testing/ Sensitivity Analysis Evolution of Illustrations of Potential Realized Credit Losses
AIG has adapted its stress testing/sensitivity analysis to incorporate all U.S. RMBS collateral pools and modeled the operation of the cash flow waterfall. Loss assumptions have also been updated to reflect deteriorating real estate market conditions.
• Assumed stress based on current ratings
• Assumed to result in immediate default
• Stress test differentiated by vintage of sub-prime RMBS
• No modeling of cash flow waterfall
Ratings-Based Static Stress
(Q4’07 & Q1’08)
Roll-Rate Sensitivity
(Q1’08)
Roll-Rate Scenarios
(Q2’08)
• Reflected more current performance of sub-prime and Alt-A mortgages
• Delinquent mortgages modeled using roll rate frequency/severity assumptions
• Non-Delinquent mortgages modeled using loss timing curves and severity assumptions
• Inner CDOs modeled using ratings-based stresses
• No modeling of cash flow waterfall
• Enhanced Q1’08 methodology to :
i. Include prime RMBS
ii. Model cash flow waterfall
• Changed assumptions in view of deteriorating real estate market conditions:
i. Revisions to roll rate default and severity assumptions for subprime and Alt-A
ii. Use of current ratings to inner CDOs and higher stresses to other ABS collateral
13
Stress Testing – Roll Rate Illustration of Potential Realized Credit Losses on AIGFP’s “Super Senior" Multi-Sector CDO Credit Derivative Portfolio
AIG continues to expect potential future realized credit losses to be significantly lower than the fair value losses recorded under GAAP as of June 30, 2008. However, there can be no assurance that the ultimate realized credit losses will not exceed the potential realized credit losses illustrated.
Pre-Tax Loss Estimates
$ BN
Description of Potential Realized Credit Loss Scenario Analysis
* Including other ABS, such as CMBS, credit card and auto loan ABS.** Excludes approximately $67 million of the cumulative unrealized market value loss that was recognized as a result of the
purchase during the second quarter of $682 million of other super senior CDO securities in connection with 2a-7 Puts.
• Collateral Pools Included: All U.S. RMBS (i.e., subprime, Alt- A and prime).
• Delinquent Mortgages: Modeled using data as of May 31, 2008, assuming certain percentages of such loans roll into default & foreclosure and assuming loss severities. Assumptions differentiated by delinquency status and vintage.
• Non-Delinquent Mortgages: Defaults estimated by using loss timing curves (differentiated by weighted average loan age) and applying loss severities.
• Inner CDOs*: Modeled using ratings-based stresses differentiated by vintage.
• Cash Flow Waterfall: Modeled to capture the potential effects, both positive and negative, of cash flow diversion within each CDO.
5.0
24.8
8.5
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
Roll Rate PotentialRealized Credit
Loss - Scenario A
Roll Rate PotentialRealized Credit
Loss - Scenario B
Fair ValueValuation Losses
Under GAAP as ofJune 30, 2008
**
14
Stress Testing – Roll Rate Reconciliation of Change to Potential Realized Credit Losses on AIGFP’s
“Super Senior" Multi-Sector CDO Credit Derivative Portfolio
2.4 2.63.6
5.0 5.0
8.5
1.0
0.7
3.5
0.7
2.4
0.2
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Roll Rate SensitivityIllustrated in Q1'08
Disclosure
Inclusion ofDelinquent Prime
RMBS
Modeling of CashFlow Waterfall
ChangedAssumptions Due toDeteriorating Real
Estate MarketConditions
Roll Rate PotentialRealized Credit Loss
- Scenario A
Illustration of Effect ofApplying 120% of thedefault and severityassumptions used in
Scenario A
Roll Rate PotentialRealized Credit Loss
- Scenario B
The changed assumptions due to the deteriorating real estate market conditions had the most significant effect on the roll rate potential realized credit loss scenarios. These conditions and other related macroeconomic effects (e.g., unemployment levels) could continue to have a material effect on estimates of ultimate realized credit losses.
$ BN
Inner CDOs & Other ABS
Subprime & Alt-A
15
Stress Testing – Roll Rate Overview of U.S. RMBS Roll Rate Assumptions
6 0 %
6 5% 6 5%
70 % 71%70 %
75% 75%
8 0 %8 3 %
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Pre 2005 Q1-Q2 2005 Q3-Q4 2005 2006 2007
30+ days60+ days90+days
Assumed Percentage Rolling into Default1 Alt-A RMBS
Subprime Delinquent Mortgages –
Sensitivity Used in Q1’08 Disclosure
Assumed Loss Severities
40%45%
50%55%
60% 60%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Pre Q3-Q42004
Q3-Q42004
Q1-Q22005
Q3-Q42005
2006 2007
1. Defaults include Real Estate Owned (REO) and foreclosed loans.
Delinquency Status
16
Stress Testing – Roll Rate Overview of U.S. RMBS Roll Rate Assumptions
6 0 %
70 % 70 %
8 0 % 8 0 %
70 %
8 0 % 8 0 %
9 0 % 9 0 %
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Pre 2005 Q1-Q2 2005 Q3-Q4 2005 2006 2007
30+ days60+ days90+days
Assumed Percentage Rolling into Default1 Alt-A RMBS
Subprime Delinquent Mortgages -
Scenario A
Assumed Loss Severities
50%
60% 60%55%55%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Pre 2005 Q1-Q2 2005 Q3-Q4 2005 2006 2007
1. Defaults include Real Estate Owned (REO) and foreclosed loans.
Delinquency Status
17
Stress Testing – Roll Rate Overview of U.S. RMBS Roll Rate Assumptions
Assumed Percentage Rolling into Default1 Alt-A RMBS
Subprime Delinquent Mortgages -
Scenario B2
Assumed Loss Severities
1. Defaults include Real Estate Owned (REO) and foreclosed loans.
2. Under Scenario B, the assumed percentages rolling into default and the assumed loss severities are 120% of those under Scenario A (capped to 100%).
72 %
8 4 % 8 4 %
9 6 % 9 6 %
8 4 %
9 6 % 9 6 %
10 0 % 10 0 %
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Pre 2005 Q1-Q2 2005 Q3-Q4 2005 2006 2007
30+ days60+ days90+days
60%
66% 66%
72% 72%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Pre 2005 Q1-Q2 2005 Q3-Q4 2005 2006 2007
Delinquency Status
18
Stress Testing – Roll Rate Overview of U.S. RMBS Roll Rate Assumptions
4 8 % 4 8 % 4 8 % 4 8 % 4 8 %
70 %
8 0 % 8 0 %
8 5%8 7%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Pre 2005 Q1-Q2 2005 Q3-Q4 2005 2006 2007
30+ days60+ days90+days
Assumed Percentage Rolling into Default1 Alt-A RMBS
Alt-A Delinquent Mortgages –
Sensitivity Used in Q1’08 Disclosure
Assumed Loss Severities
35% 35%40%
45% 45% 45%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Pre Q3-Q42004
Q3-Q42004
Q1-Q22005
Q3-Q42005
2006 2007
1. Defaults include Real Estate Owned (REO) and foreclosed loans.
Delinquency Status
19
Stress Testing – Roll Rate Overview of U.S. RMBS Roll Rate Assumptions
50 %
70 % 70 %
8 0 % 8 0 %
70 %
8 0 % 8 0 %
9 0 % 9 0 %
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Pre 2005 Q1-Q2 2005 Q3-Q4 2005 2006 2007
30+ days60+ days90+days
Assumed Percentage Rolling into Default1 Alt-A RMBS
Alt-A Delinquent Mortgages -
Scenario A
Assumed Loss Severities
35% 35% 35%
45% 45%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Pre 2005 Q1-Q2 2005 Q3-Q4 2005 2006 2007
1. Defaults include Real Estate Owned (REO) and foreclosed loans.
Delinquency Status
20
Stress Testing – Roll Rate Overview of U.S. RMBS Roll Rate Assumptions
Assumed Percentage Rolling into Default1 Alt-A RMBS
Alt-A Delinquent Mortgages -
Scenario B2
Assumed Loss Severities
1. Defaults include Real Estate Owned (REO) and foreclosed loans.
2. Under Scenario B, the assumed percentages rolling into default and the assumed loss severities are 120% of those under Scenario A (capped to 100%).
6 0 %
8 4 % 8 4 %
9 6 % 9 6 %
8 4 %
9 6 % 9 6 %
10 0 % 10 0 %
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Pre 2005 Q1-Q2 2005 Q3-Q4 2005 2006 2007
30+ days60+ days90+days 42% 42% 42%
54% 54%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Pre 2005 Q1-Q2 2005 Q3-Q4 2005 2006 2007
Delinquency Status
21
Stress Testing – Roll Rate Overview of U.S. RMBS Roll Rate Assumptions
6 0 % 6 0 % 6 0 % 6 0 % 6 0 %
70 % 70 % 70 % 70 % 70 %
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Pre 2005 Q1-Q2 2005 Q3-Q4 2005 2006 2007
60+ days90+days
Assumed Percentage Rolling into Default1 Alt-A RMBS
Prime Delinquent Mortgages -
Scenario A
Assumed Loss Severities
25% 25%30%
35% 35%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Pre 2005 Q1-Q2 2005 Q3-Q4 2005 2006 2007
1. Defaults include Real Estate Owned (REO) and foreclosed loans.
Delinquency Status
22
Stress Testing – Roll Rate Overview of U.S. RMBS Roll Rate Assumptions
Assumed Percentage Rolling into Default1 Alt-A RMBS
Prime Delinquent Mortgages -
Scenario B2
Assumed Loss Severities
1. Defaults include Real Estate Owned (REO) and foreclosed loans.
2. Under Scenario B, the assumed percentages rolling into default and the assumed loss severities are 120% of those under Scenario A (capped to 100%).
72 % 72 % 72 % 72 % 72 %
8 4 % 8 4 % 8 4 % 8 4 % 8 4 %
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Pre 2005 Q1-Q2 2005 Q3-Q4 2005 2006 2007
60+ days90+days
30% 30%
36%
42% 42%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Pre 2005 Q1-Q2 2005 Q3-Q4 2005 2006 2007
Delinquency Status
23
Inner CDOs Stress Loss Assumptions
1. Based on lowest published current rating (i.e., as of February 29, 2008 for Q1’08 disclosure and as of May 31, 2008 for Q2’08 disclosure) of Fitch, Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s. Includes other ABS, such as CMBS, credit card and auto loan ABS.
Rating1 2005 & 2004
2006 & 2007
AAA 8% 50%
AA 43% 93%
A 64% 96%
BBB 82% 97%
BB+ or Lower 100% 100%
Stress Testing Overview of Inner CDO Ratings Based Assumptions1
24
Accounting Valuation – Mark-to-Market
Type
AIGFP Notional Exposure
June 30, 2008($ Billions)
Fair Value LossJune 30, 2008
($ Billions)
MTM -
3 Months Ended June 30, 2008
($ Billions)
MTM –
6 Months Ended June 30, 2008
($ Billions)
Corporate Arbitrage1 $53.8 $1.0 ($0.1) $0.8
Regulatory Capital2 $306.9 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1
Multi-Sector CDOs, of which: $80.3 $24.83 $5.6 $13.6
Transactions w/Subprime:High GradeMezzanine
$42.0$15.8
$14.1$6.9
$3.0$1.3
$7.8$2.9
Transactions w/No Subprime:High GradeMezzanine
$21.7$0.8
$3.5$0.3
$1.3$0.0
$2.7$0.2
Total: $441.04 $25.95 $5.65 $14.55
AIGFP “Super Senior” Credit Derivative Swaps Portfolio
1. Represents Corporate Debt and CLOs. 2. Represents Corporate, Residential Mortgages and Other Regulatory Capital transactions.3. Excludes approximately $67 million of the cumulative unrealized market value loss that was recognized as a result of the purchase during the second
quarter of $682 million of other super senior CDO securities in connection with 2a-7 Puts .4. Excludes $5.8 billion on mezzanine tranches representing credit derivatives written by AIGFP on tranches below super senior on certain regulatory capital
relief trades.5. Excludes $0.2 billion on mezzanine tranches representing credit derivatives written by AIGFP on tranches below super senior on certain regulatory capital
relief trades.
25
$352
$10,894
$8,037
$5,569 $24,852
$0
$2,500
$5,000
$7,500
$10,000
$12,500
$15,000
$17,500
$20,000
$22,500
$25,000
3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 Cumulative MTM
$ M
illio
nsMulti-Sector CDO Mark-to-Market
Valuation Losses
26
• AIGFP has collateral arrangements with several of its counterparties in respect of its super senior credit derivative portfolios, nearly all of which are written under a Credit Support Annex (“CSA”) to an ISDA Master Agreement (“ISDA Master”).
– The intent of these arrangements is to hedge against counterparty credit risk exposures.
• AIGFP is required to post collateral on the majority of the credit derivatives that are part of the multi-sector CDO and corporate arbitrage portfolios.
– The amount of collateral required for posting is primarily based either on the replacement value of the derivative or the market value of the reference obligation.
– The amount required for posting is affected by AIG Inc.’s credit rating and that of the reference obligation.
• Certain of the credit derivatives in the regulatory capital portfolios are also subject to collateral arrangements.
– However, the collateral arrangements related to this portfolio have been customized to accommodate the bespoke nature of this portfolio and counterparty requirements.
– As of July 31, 2008, there are only two transactions that are eligible to request collateral from AIGFP.
• As of July 31, 2008, AIGFP has posted collateral based on exposures aggregating to approximately $16.5 billion on its super senior credit derivative portfolios, principally related to the multi-sector CDO portfolio.
AIGFP’s Collateral Arrangements
27
• Certain of the CDOs underlying AIGFP’s credit derivatives contain over-collateralization provisions that adjust the value of the collateral, based in part on the ratings of the collateral for the CDOs.
• If the over-collateralization provisions are not satisfied, an event of default would occur, creating a right to accelerate.
• In certain of these circumstances, AIGFP may be required to purchase the referenced super senior security at par.
• As of July 31, 2008, six CDOs for which AIGFP had written credit protection on the super senior securities had experienced events of default.
– For one of these CDOs, AIGFP purchased the protected security for $103 million, the principal amount outstanding relating to this obligation.
– AIGFP’s remaining notional exposure with respect to these CDOs was $1.5 billion at July 31, 2008.
AIGFP – Events of Default
28
AIG Insurance Investment Portfolios
29
AIG Insurance Investment Portfolios
• The investment portfolios of AIG’s insurance companies are managed by AIG Investments (AIGI)* on their behalf.
• These portfolios are managed on a spread investment or Asset-Liability Management model, not as a transactional business. The investment focus is on ultimate collectibility, not short-term market movements.
• All figures are based on amortized cost** unless otherwise indicated.
• Ratings used in this presentation are external ratings where available, or equivalent, based on AIG’s internal risk rating process.
* For purposes of this presentation, AIGI is used to denote the insurance portfolios managed by AIG Investments.** Amortized cost is the cost of a debt security adjusted for amortized premium or discount less other-than-temporary impairments.
30
AIG Insurance Investment Portfolios Worldwide Insurance and Asset Management Bond Portfolios
BBB17%
Lower5%
A16%
AA24%
AAA38%
• AIGI’s bond portfolios* had a fair value of $473 billion at June 30, 2008, of which approximately 95% are investment grade.
* Fixed Maturities: Bonds available for sale (including those held as Securities lending collateral), Bonds held to maturity and Bonds trading securities.
$261.8 Billion $211.2 Billion
Foreign Operations-
Bonds by RatingsDomestic Operations -
Bonds by Ratings
BBB7%
Lower & Non-rated4%
A32%
AA37%
AAA20%
31
AIG Insurance Investment PortfoliosDomestic Operations Bonds by Category
$261.8 Billion
Municipal24%
RMBS24%
CMBS5%
Credit43%
CDO Debt1%
U.S. Government1%
Other ABS2%
June 30, 2008
32
AIG Insurance Investment Portfolios RMBS Portfolios
33
AIG Insurance Investment Portfolios RMBS Overview
• Holdings of global residential mortgage market products total approximately $77.5 billion at June 30, 2008, or about 9.2% of AIG’s total invested assets.
– Approximately 87% of the portfolio is composed of agency and AAA rated.
– Close to 95% of the portfolio consists of AA, AAA and agency securities.
• Within AIGI’s $60.9 billion non-agency portfolio, about 83% is AAA-rated and 11% is AA-rated.
–
Holdings rated BBB or below total approximately $2.7 billion (less than 5% of the portfolio and about 0.3% of total invested assets).
–
About $5.7 billion (9.4%) of the $60.9 billion is “wrapped” by monoline insurance.
RMBS Type Par Value($ Billions) %
Amortized Cost($ Billions) %
Fair Value($ Billions) %
Agency Pass- Through and CMO Issuances
$17.0 19.4% $16.6 21.4% $ 16.7 24.6%
Prime Non-Agency (incl. Foreign and Jumbo RMBS related securities)
18.3 20.8% 17.6 22.7% 16.0 23.6%
Alt-A RMBS 24.6 28.0% 20.2 26.1% 16.4 24.1%
Subprime RMBS 23.6 26.9% 20.0 25.8% 16.3 24.0%
Other Housing- Related Paper 4.3 4.9% 3.1 4.0% 2.5 3.7%
Total RMBS $87.8 100.0% $77.5 100.0% $67.9 100.0%
($ Billions)Amortized Cost March 31, 2008
PaydownsOTTI
2nd
QuarterOther1 Amortized Cost
June 30, 2008
Total RMBS, of which:
$82.3 ($2.4) ($5.0) $2.6 $77.5
Alt-A $23.7 ($0.6) ($3.1) $0.2 $20.2
Subprime $21.6 ($0.7) ($0.9) - $20.0
1. Other is comprised of sales, purchases, amortizations, accruals, etc.
Changes in RMBS Portfolio -
Amortized Cost
34
AIG Insurance Investment Portfolios RMBS Portfolio
Amortized Cost Rating
HOLDINGS AGENCY AAA AA A BBBBB & below TOTAL
AGENCY $16,642 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $16,642
PRIME JUMBO - 11,642 1,689 331 141 27 13,830
ALT-A - 18,811 1,084 216 66 58 20,235
SUBPRIME - 16,867 1,689 437 328 667 19,988
SECOND-LIEN - 284 968 97 161 82 1,592
HELOC - 240 815 47 200 123 1,425
FOREIGN MBS - 2,712 150 10 63 809 3,744
OTHER - 34 12 16 12 1 75
TOTAL $16,642 $50,590 $6,407 $1,154 $971 $1,767 $77,531
June 30, 2008($ Millions)
35
AIG Insurance Investment PortfoliosTotal RMBS Exposure by Vintage - $77.5 Billion
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Vintage
$ B
illio
ns
AAA & Agency 3.3 5.6 6.1 13.1 20.6 15.5 3.0
AA 0.2 0.9 0.6 1.5 1.9 1.3 -
A - 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 -
BBB - 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 -
BB & below - - 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 -
Pre 2003 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
In its purchases, AIGI focused primarily on AAA rated investments.
Weighted average expected life (WAL) is 7.7 years
June 30, 2008
36
AIG Insurance Investment Portfolios Subprime RMBS
• Approximately 94% of AIGI’s subprime exposure is in the 2005 through 2007 vintages.
• In the poor performing 2006/2007 vintages, 92% of AIGI’s exposure is currently rated AAA or AA.
• Slower prepayment speeds have resulted in the weighted average life (WAL) of the portfolio extending to 6.5 years (from 4.2 years in the first quarter).**
2007 Vintage Credit Enhancement for AIGI*
Rating
Original Credit
Enhancement
Current Credit
Enhancement
AAA 23.6% 27.1%
AA+ and lower 20.1% 22.9%
* Source: Intex
** WAL extension is reflective of interest rate changes as well as a new vendor prepayment model with slower prepayment projections. If cash flow diversion triggers fail and deals pay down sequentially, WALs will likely be shorter.
2006 Vintage Credit Enhancement for AIGI*
Rating
Original Credit
Enhancement
Current Credit
Enhancement
AAA 20.9% 33.0%
AA+ and lower 18.6% 25.9%
37
AIG Insurance Investment Portfolios Subprime RMBS - $20.0 Billion
AAA trancheAAA tranche
AA trancheAA tranche
A trancheA tranche
BBB trancheBBB tranche
AA$1.7 Billion (8.5%)
A$0.4 Billion (2.0%)
BBB$0.3 Billion (1.5%)
Equity$0.7 Billion (3.5%)
AAA$16.9 Billion (84.5%)
RMBS(Collateral pool of
residential mortgages)
RMBS(Collateral pool of
residential mortgages)
BB and lowerEquity trancheBB and lowerEquity tranche
Last
Payment Waterfall
(principal + interest)
Priority First
June 30, 2008
38
AIG Insurance Investment PortfoliosSubprime RMBS Exposure by Vintage - $20.0 Billion
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Vintage
$ B
illio
ns
AAA 0.1 0.3 0.4 4.4 7.8 3.9
AA 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.2
A - 0.1 - 0.1 0.1 0.1
BBB - - 0.1 - - 0.2
BB & below - - - - 0.5 0.2
Pre 2003 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
In its purchases, AIGI focused primarily on AAA rated investments.
WAL is 6.5 years
June 30, 2008
39
AIG Insurance Investment Portfolios Alt-A RMBS
• Approximately 90% of the Alt-A portfolio is in the 2005 through 2007 vintages.
• Over 98% of AIGI’s Alt-A exposure is currently rated AAA or AA.
• The weighted average life (WAL) of the portfolio is 7.6 years – up from 4.0 years in the first quarter.**
* Source: Intex** WAL extension is reflective of interest rate changes as well as a new vendor prepayment model with slower prepayment
projections. If cash flow diversion triggers fail and deals pay down sequentially, WALs will likely become shorter.
2007 Vintage Credit Enhancement for AIGI*
RatingOriginal Credit Enhancement
Current Credit Enhancement
AAA 19.2% 20.3%
AA+ and lower 10.6% 12.6%
2006 Vintage Credit Enhancement for AIGI*
RatingOriginal Credit Enhancement
Current Credit Enhancement
AAA 19.0% 22.2%
AA+ and lower 5.6% 8.0%
40
AIG Insurance Investment Portfolios ALT-A RMBS - $20.2 Billion
AAA trancheAAA tranche
AA trancheAA tranche
A trancheA tranche
BBB trancheBBB tranche
AA$1.1 Billion (5.4%)
A$0.2 Billion (1.0%)
BBB$0.1 Billion (0.5%)
Equity$0.0 Billion (0.1%)
AAA $18.8 Billion (93.0%)
RMBS(Collateral pool of
residential mortgages)
RMBS(Collateral pool of
residential mortgages)
Payment Waterfall
(principal + interest)
Priority First
BB and lower Equity tranche BB and lower Equity tranche
Last
June 30, 2008
41
AIG Insurance Investment PortfoliosALT-A RMBS Exposure by Vintage - $20.2 Billion
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Vintage
$ B
illio
ns
AAA 0.2 0.6 0.8 4.3 7.6 5.3
AA - 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3
A - - 0.1 0.1 - -
BBB - - - 0.1 - -
BB & below - - - - - -
Pre 2003 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
In its purchases, AIGI focused primarily on AAA rated investments.
WAL is 7.6 years
June 30, 2008
42
AIG Insurance Investment Portfolios Prime Jumbo RMBS
• Approximately 57% of AIGI’s prime jumbo portfolio is in the 2005 – 2007 vintages.
• Approximately 96% of AIGI’s exposure to the prime jumbo market is currently AAA or AA rated.
• The weighted average life (WAL) of the prime jumbo exposure is 8.6 years.
2007 Vintage Credit Enhancement for AIGI*
RatingOriginal Credit Enhancement
Current Credit Enhancement
AAA 14.7% 15.2%
AA+ and lower 2.6% 2.7%
*
Source: Intex
2006 Vintage Credit Enhancement for AIGI*
RatingOriginal Credit Enhancement
Current Credit Enhancement
AAA 10.3% 11.9%
AA+ and lower 1.6% 2.2%
43
AIG Insurance Investment Portfolios Prime Jumbo RMBS - $13.8 Billion
AAA trancheAAA tranche
AA trancheAA tranche
A trancheA tranche
BBB trancheBBB tranche
AA$1.7 Billion (12.3%)
A$0.3 Billion (2.2%)
BBB$0.2 Billion (1.4%)
Equity$0.0 Billion (0.0%)
AAA$11.6 Billion (84.1%)
RMBS(Collateral pool of
residential mortgages)
RMBS(Collateral pool of
residential mortgages)
BB and lowerEquity trancheBB and lowerEquity tranche
Last
Payment Waterfall
(principal + interest)
Priority First
June 30, 2008
44
AIG Insurance Investment PortfoliosPrime Jumbo RMBS Exposure by Vintage - $13.8 Billion
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Vintage
$ B
illio
ns
AAA 0.7 2.4 1.6 1.4 3.2 2.3
AA 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.3 -
A - 0.1 0.1 0.1 - -
BBB - 0.1 0.1 - - -
BB & below - - - - - -
Pre 2003 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
In its purchases, AIGI focused primarily on AAA rated investments.
WAL is 8.6 years
June 30, 2008
45
RMBS Rating Agency Actions*
*Based on first rating agency to downgrade or put on watch – If on downgrade list, not included on watch list.Repeated downgrades of the same security count onceDowngrades and upgrades based on the change from the original rating.Source: Moody’s Investors Service, Standard & Poor’s, and Fitch
• Downgrades have increased but cumulatively represent less than 18% of the non-agency portfolio.
• The rating agencies have placed an additional $6.1 billion (10% of the non- agency portfolio) on watch list negative as of July 31, 2008. The majority of these bonds are AAAs.
First Time Rating ActionApril 1, 2008 –
June 30, 2008Cumulative Rating Actions
January 1, 2007 –
July 31, 2008
Action Number of Securities
Amortized Cost ($ Millions)
Number of Securities
Amortized Cost ($ Millions)
% of Non- Agency RMBS
Portfolio
Downgrades 229 $5,265 491 $10,855 17.8%
Upgrades 2 $13 58 $212 0.3%
AIG Insurance Investment Portfolios
46
RMBS Non-Agency Ratings Migration (January 1, 2007 - July 31, 2008)*
* Based on original and current “flat” ratings. Flat ratings exclude notches.Source: Bloomberg, Moody’s Investors Service, Standard & Poor’s, and Fitch
AIG Insurance Investment Portfolios
Original Flat Rating Current Flat Rating
Rating Amount AAA AA A BBBNon-
Investment Grade
AAA $55,120.0 $45,156.8 $4,340.2 $3,194.1 $1,409.1 $1,019.7
AA $3,721.7 $3.6 $3,076.3 $71.8 $219.3 $350.7
A $958.1 $3.7 $28.7 $781.7 $76.1 $67.8
BBB $277.8 - $3.0 $1.4 $259.4 $14.0
Non-Investment Grade $811.1 - - - - $811.1
Total Amortized Cost $60,888.6 $45,164.2 $7,448.2 $4,049.0 $1,964.0 $2,263.3
($ Millions)
• Over 86% of the non-agency RMBS portfolio is still rated AA or higher.
47
• AIG accounts for its RMBS, CMBS and CDOs in accordance with FAS 115, FSP FAS 115-1, FAS 91, FAS 157 and EITF 99-20.
–
These securities are predominantly classified as available for sale securities under FAS 115.
–
Changes in fair value are reported in other comprehensive income, net of tax, as a component of shareholders’ equity until realized.
–
Realization of fair value changes through earnings occurs when the position is either sold or is determined to be other-than-temporarily impaired.
• AIG utilizes external pricing vendors as a primary pricing source.
–
Approximately 95% of the portfolio fair values are derived from prices provided by industry standard commercial pricing vendors – such as IDC, Bloomberg and Lehman Brothers.
• The value of these securities is dependent on the type of collateral, the position in the capital structure and the vintage.
AIG Insurance Investment Portfolios Accounting and Valuation
48
AIG Insurance Investment Portfolios Other Than Temporary Impairments (OTTI)
• AIG’s senior management evaluates its investments for impairment such that a security is considered a candidate for other- than-temporary impairment if it meets any of the following criteria:
– Trading at a significant (25 percent or more) discount to par, amortized cost (if lower) or cost for an extended period of time (nine consecutive months or longer);
– The occurrence of a discrete credit event resulting in (i) the issuer defaulting on a material outstanding obligation; (ii) the issuer seeking protection from creditors under the bankruptcy laws or any similar laws intended for court supervised reorganization of insolvent enterprises; or (iii) the issuer proposing a voluntary reorganization pursuant to which creditors are asked to exchange their claims for cash or securities having a fair value substantially lower than par value of their claims; or
– AIG may not realize a full recovery on its investment, regardless of the occurrence of one of the foregoing events.
• The determination that a security has incurred an other-than-temporary decline in value requires the judgment of management and consideration of the fundamental condition of the issuer, its near-term prospects and all the relevant facts and circumstances.
• An impairment charge (severity loss) may also be taken in light of a rapid and severe market valuation decline because AIG could not reasonably assert that the recovery period would be temporary (generally below 60 cents on the dollar).
• AIG Investments Chief Investment Officer – Insurance Companies and Chief Credit Officer make credit-related OTTI recommendations using three categories: a) likely to recover; b) possible to recover; and c) unlikely to recover, based on a detailed written description of the circumstances of each security.
• In addition, in accordance with EITF 99-20 an analysis of the anticipated cash flows supporting each asset backed security (ABS), representing rights to receive cash flows from asset pools, such as CDOs, RMBS, CMBS, etc., and generally rated below AA-, is prepared and reviewed for impairment.
• All credit-related OTTI recommendations, together with supporting documentation, are reviewed on a quarterly basis and approved by AIG’s Chief Credit Officer. The AIG Chief Credit Officer also determines whether there are any additional securities (not on the list submitted by AIG Investments Chief Investment Officer – Insurance Companies) that should be written down.
49
AIG Insurance Investment PortfoliosConsolidated Summary of Gains & Losses
Financial Effect of Market Disruption Realized and Unrealized Gains / Losses (Pre-tax)($ Millions) –
For the quarter ended / year to date June 30, 2008 Total AIG*(QTR)
Total AIG*(YTD)
Attributable to RMBS Portfolio
(QTR)
Attributable to RMBS Portfolio
(YTD)
Net realized capital gains (losses) ($6,081) ($12,170) ($5,016) ($8,323)
of which, Securities Sales Activity $211 $310 $(33) $(8)
OTTI ($6,777) ($12,370) ($4,983) ($8,315)
Other** $485 ($110) $0 $0
Unrealized (depreciation) appreciation of investments (included in Other comprehensive income) ($3,682) ($14,254) $1,052 ($4,562)
of which, AAA-rated RMBS (depreciation) ($2,325) ($7,761) ($2,325) ($7,761)
AA-rated RMBS (depreciation) ($446) ($446) ($446) ($446)
Lower than AA-rated RMBS (depreciation) ($144) ($439) ($144) ($439)
RMBS appreciation $3,967 $4,084 $3,967 $4,084
• The other-than-temporary impairments and unrealized losses result primarily from the capital market turmoil.
– Severity charges account for 82% of the RMBS OTTI losses in the second quarter and 87% for the six-month period.
* Excludes AIGFP’s super senior credit default swap portfolio.**
Consists predominantly of foreign exchange and derivative activity related gains and losses.
50
AIG Insurance Investment Portfolios CMBS Portfolios
51
AIG Insurance Investment Portfolios CMBS Portfolios – Overview
DescriptionAmortized Cost
($ Millions) %
CMBS (traditional) $20,819 90.8%
ReREMIC/ CRE CDO 1,465 6.4%
Agency 246 1.1%Other 405 1.7%TOTAL $22,935 100.0%
BB & Below, 0.7%
BBB, 0.9%
A, 6.7%
AA, 12.2%
AAA, 79.5%
June 30, 2008
52
AIG Insurance Investment Portfolios CMBS Portfolios
Top 10 States %NY 17.4%CA 15.2%TX 7.2%FL 6.4%VA 3.8%IL 3.6%NJ 3.3%GA 2.8%PA 2.8%MA 2.6%
65.1%
Vintage %2008 1.0%2007 24.3%2006 13.9%2005 17.6%2004 15.5%2003 4.8%
2002 & Older 22.9%100.0%
• The majority of the CMBS portfolio is of older vintages, although about 25% is 2007-2008 vintages of which 84% is rated AAA and 98% is investment grade.
Lodging, 8.3%Industrial,
5.0%
Multifamily, 16.3%
Other, 8.4%
Retail, 30.0%
Office, 32.0%
June 30, 2008
53
Source: Trepp, LLC.Delinquencies as of 7/24/08.
• Delinquencies in the U.S. CMBS sector have remained below 1% since 2005.
0.05%0.03%
0.13% 0.12% 0.13%0.11% 0.11%
0.07%
0.42%
0.33%
0.00%0.05%0.10%0.15%0.20%0.25%0.30%0.35%0.40%0.45%
60+ Days 90+ Days Foreclosure REO Total
US Conduit CMBS Universe AIG Traditional CMBS Portfolio
Current Delinquencies (%)
AIG Insurance Investment Portfolios CMBS Portfolios
54
AIG Insurance Investment Portfolios CMBS Portfolios
AIGI Traditional CMBS Portfolio Historical Delinquencies
September 30, 2007
December 31, 2007
March 31, 2008
June 30, 2008
60 Days 0.08% 0.02% 0.04% 0.03%
90+ Days 0.07% 0.12% 0.10% 0.12%
Foreclosure 0.02% 0.02% 0.10% 0.11%
REO 0.10% 0.07% 0.08% 0.07%
0.27% 0.23% 0.32% 0.33%
Source: Trepp, LLC
The quarterly figures are based on the most recent available delinquency data for each quarter.
55
AIG Insurance Investment Portfolios CMBS Portfolios
2008 Rating Actions – Upgrade / Downgrade Ratios
All CMBS Transactions
AIGI CMBS Portfolio
U.S. CMBS Universe
Combined 0.6:1 0.6:1
Investment Grade Bonds 0.6:1 1.1:1
Below Investment Grade Bonds No Actions 0.2:1
Excluding ReREMIC/CRE
CDOs
AIGI CMBS Portfolio
U.S. CMBS Universe
Combined 6.0:1 1.1:1
Investment Grade Bonds 6.0:1 2.5:1
Below Investment Grade Bonds No Actions 0.2:1
Excluding ReREMIC/CRE
CDOs
AIGI CMBS Portfolio
U.S. CMBS Universe
Combined 11.7:1 1.3:1
Investment Grade Bonds 11.7:1 3.7:1
Below Investment Grade Bonds No Actions 0.2:1
All CMBS Transactions
AIGI CMBS Portfolio
U.S. CMBS Universe
Combined 1.1:1 0.9:1
Investment Grade Bonds 1.1:1 1.7:1
Below Investment Grade Bonds No Actions 0.2:1
• AIGI’s CMBS portfolio experienced its first downgrades of 2008 in the second quarter.• Downgrades represent $454 million, or 2% of amortized cost of the CMBS portfolio.• As shown below, ReREMIC/CRE CDOs have had a negative effect on the upgrade/downgrade ratios.
– However, over 99% of AIGI’s ReREMIC/CRE CDO portfolio is investment grade.– AIGI’s ReREMIC/CRE CDO portfolio is well-seasoned with 68% of the loans seasoned over 24 months.
• Two additional bonds totaling $13 million, not previously downgraded, are on negative watch.
Note: Ratios are not dollar weighted.
Second Quarter 2008 Year to Date 2008
56
AIG Insurance Investment Portfolios CMBS Portfolios
• All of the OTTI realized in the CMBS portfolio are a result of price decline severity.
• No actual credit-related losses to investment principal have been incurred to date.
Realized and Unrealized Gains / Losses (Pre-tax)($ Millions)
For the Quarter ended June 30, 2008
Year-to-DateJune 30, 2008
Other Than Temporary Impairment ($387) ($904)
Unrealized (depreciation) appreciation of investments (included in Other comprehensive income) $768 ($814)
Financial Effect of Market Disruption
57
AIG Insurance Investment Portfolios CDO Portfolios
58
AIG Insurance Investment Portfolios CDO Portfolio Overview
• As of June 30th the composition of the $4.1 billion CDO portfolio is as follows:
• 90% of the portfolio is rated A or better and 40% is rated AA or better.– 87% of CLO holdings is rated A or better. Only one tranche, representing less than 1% of
the CLO portfolio, is deferring interest. This was the only CLO downgraded since 2007.– 100% of the Corporate Synthetic holdings are investment grade, with 73% rated AA or
better, and 97% rated A or better. Two transactions totaling $163 million were downgraded in the second quarter but are still investment grade ($131 million of which are AA-rated).
– 91% of the remaining CDO holdings, which primarily include market value and older vintage CDOs, is rated A or better. Performance has been stable.
• The weighted average market price of the total portfolio was $65(2) as of June 30th.
This compares to $66(2) as of March 31, 2008 and $81(2) as of December 31, 2007.
(1)
Below Investment Grade(2)
As compared to par of $100
Ratings ($ Millions)
Amortized Cost %
AAA $872 21.2%
AA 766 18.6%
A 2,085 50.6%
BBB 313 7.6%
BIG(1) and Equity 84 2.0%
Total $4,120 100.0%
Collateral Type ($ Millions)
Amortized Cost %
Bank Loans (CLOs) $2,108 51.2%
Synthetic Investment Grade 1,233 29.9%
Other 733 17.8%
Subprime ABS 46 1.1%
Total $4,120 100.0%
59
AIG Insurance Investment Portfolios Monoline Exposure
60
AIG Insurance Investment Portfolios Monoline Exposure
• AIGI’s monoline exposure totals $41 billion, almost all of which (99%) are financial guarantees.
– Financial guarantees are viewed as a secondary form of payment for all wrapped investments.
– 78% of the total exposure relates to municipal bonds, which are highly rated.
Insured Asset Class ($ Millions) Amortized Cost Fair Value
Municipals $32,015 $31,738
RMBS/CMBS 5,662 4,624
ABS 2,045 1,730
Corporates 833 867
Investment Agreements in CDOs (1) 383 251
Total Insured $40,938 $39,210
Direct Corporate Exposure (2),(3) 47 (5)
Total Exposure $40,985 $39,205
June 30, 2008
Monoline
Entity($ Millions) (4)
Financial GuaranteesAmortized Cost
Other (5)
Amortized Cost
MBIA $12,879 $147
FSA 10,468 101
AMBAC 9,017 133
FGIC 6,930 49
SCA (XLCA/XLFA) 590 -
CIFG 319 -
Assured Guarantee Corp. 334 -
Multiple 18 -
$40,555 $430
(1) Refers to cash collateral accounts in certain synthetic CDOs. $342 million of this exposure is investment agreements with financial guarantee insurance policies provided by the monolines (includes $297 million of fully collateralized investment agreements and $45 million of investment agreements which are subject to collateral posting requirements, should the monoline guarantor be downgraded). Also includes $41 million in an investment agreement issued by a monoline with a corporate guarantee provided by a highly rated non-monoline guarantor.
(2) Represents amortized cost and fair value related to $47 million of bonds and credit linked notes. Does not reflect $123 million notional of monoline exposure via CDS.(3) The fair market value for the bond/CLN exposure is $36 million and the fair market value for the CDS portion is ($41) million.(4) Amounts above are exclusive of $123 million in Notional of CDS as follows: $52 million (AMBAC), $25 million (MBIA), and $46 million (Assured Guarantee). (5) Other includes the amortized cost of direct corporate exposure and Investment Agreements in CDOs.(6) Includes RMBS/CMBS and ABS underlying ratings, which are based solely on AIG’s internal ratings assessment.(7) Excludes $383 million of Investment Agreements in CDOs and $47 million of direct corporate exposure.
Monoline Exposure by Underlying Ratings (6), (7)
CCC6.2%
BB0.6%
B0.2%
BBB3.4%
A18.1%
Non Rated0.2%
AAA11.9%
AA59.4%
61
AIG Insurance Investment Portfolios Monoline Exposure - Municipal Bonds by Underlying Ratings
• More than 99% of the total municipal bond portfolio is rated A or better, without considering the financial guarantees.
Insured Portfolio($32 Billion)
CCC0.0%
B0.0%
BB0.0%
AAA6.4%
No Underlying0.1%
BBB0.9%
A21.8%
AA70.8%
(1) Pre-refunded/Escrowed to Maturity (all are fully defeased with U.S. Government or GSE securities).
Total Portfolio ($63 Billion)
A13.5%
AA51.2%
AAA23.9%
AAA Pre-re/ETM
10.8% (1)
BBB0.5%
No Underlying0.1%
CCC0.0%
62
ABS - AIG Internal Ratings
AAA16.2%BB
3.1%
BBB20.4%
AA57.7%
A2.6%
AIG Insurance Investment Portfolios Monoline Exposure - RMBS/CMBS/ABS
• Currently, there are 18 RMBS Second Lien, Home Equity and Subprime holdings totaling $906 million, or 2% of AIGI’s total insured portfolio, that are known to be receiving contractual payments through their financial guarantees.
Asset Class ($ Millions) Amortized Cost %
Second Lien $1,398 24.7%
HELOC 1,405 24.8%
Alt-A 1,348 23.8%
Subprime 1,127 19.9%
Jumbo 288 5.1%
Other (1) 96 1.7%
$5,662 100.0%
June 30, 2008
(1) Other consists of CMBS ($51MM), Foreign MBS ($15MM), and Manufactured Housing ($30MM).
Asset Class ($ Millions) Amortized Cost %
Business/Franchise Loan $530 25.9%
Auto Loan 471 23.0%
Future Flow 420 20.5%
Lot Loan 222 10.9%
Project Finance & Other 187 9.1%
Railcar Loan/Lease 102 5.0%
Timeshare 77 3.8%
Credit Card 36 1.8%
$2,045 100.0%
ABS Portfolio
RMBS/CMBS Portfolio RMBS/CMBS - AIG Internal Ratings
AAA42.2%
AA3.8%
A2.4%
BBB4.2%BB
2.4%
B0.9%
CCC44.1%
63
United Guaranty –
Mortgage Insurance
64
United Guaranty (UGC)
• UGC operates in a cyclical business that is highly correlated to the fortunes of the housing market.
• The loss ratio for the past twelve months was 232%. The cumulative loss ratio for the 10-year period ended June 30, 2008 was 68%.
• UGC’s underwriting and eligibility adjustments, along with more rigorous underwriting standards applied by UGC’s lender customers, are aimed at improving the quality of new business.
First-Lien Risk MixLoans > 95% LTV*
FICO > 660
Interest Only
Option ARMs Fixed Rate
New Risk 2Q2007 46.0% 65.5% 13.5% 3.1% 79.0%
New Risk 2Q20086.4% 92.3% 3.9% 0.0% 92.1%
* Loan-to-value
65
United Guaranty Mortgage Guaranty Product Characteristics
• Mortgage guaranty insurance is a multi-year contract with monthly premiums and automatic renewals (15-30 year mortgage term). UGC can generally only cancel the policy for non-payment of premium or other policy exclusions.
• Mortgage guaranty first-lien price increases (applicable to new business only) are slow to affect results, as they must be approved by local regulators and require changes to loan origination systems by large mortgage lenders.
• Mortgage guaranty performance is predominantly determined by macroeconomic events in the early years of the policy. Current year loss expenses are driven by loans from prior vintage years.
• This business model results in a portfolio with an average life of 5-7 years, with new production contributing less than 20% of the calendar year net premiums written but building a base for renewal premiums.
66
United GuarantyTotal Portfolio
This table is for informational purposes only. Net Risk-in-Force (RIF) = Insurance risk on mortgages net of risk sharing and reinsurance. Delinquency figures are based on number of policies (not dollar amounts), consistent with mortgage insurance industry practice.
($ Billions) June 30, 2007
September 30, 2007
December 31, 2007
March 31, 2008
June 30,2008
Domestic Mortgage Net Risk-in-Force
60+ Day Delinquency$25.92.5%
$28.23.0%
$29.83.7%
$31.54.0%
$31.84.9%
2008 Vintage60+ Day Delinquency NA NA NA
$2.1 0.0%
$3.80.7%
2007 Vintage60+ Day Delinquency
$3.70.7%
$6.51.4%
$8.92.5%
$9.3 3.4%
$9.05.0%
2006 Vintage60+ Day Delinquency
$6.82.3%
$6.73.3%
$6.54.5%
$6.2 5.0%
$5.96.3%
2005 Vintage60+ Day Delinquency
$5.42.2%
$5.32.9%
$5.13.7%
$5.0 4.2%
$4.85.0%
LTV > 95%60+ Day Delinquency
$3.52.6%
$9.63.4%
$10.44.3%
$10.84.4%
$10.65.4%
Low Documentation60+ Day Delinquency
$4.22.2%
$5.22.8%
$5.63.9%
$6.14.7%
$6.36.0%
Interest Only & Option ARMs
60+ Day Delinquency $2.34.1%
$2.75.7%
$2.98.8%
$3.012.4%
$3.017.0%
67
United Guaranty
This table is for informational purposes only. Net Risk-in-Force (RIF) = Insurance risk on mortgages net of risk sharing and reinsurance. Loans with unknown FICO scores are included in the FICO (620-659) based on similar performance characteristics. Delinquency figures are based on number of policies (not dollar amounts), consistent with mortgage insurance industry practice.
Real Estate Portfolio Total Portfolio FICO (≥
660) FICO (620-
659) FICO (<620)
Domestic Mortgage NetRisk-in-Force
60+ Day Delinquency$31.8 Billion
4.9% $23.1 Billion
3.1%$6.4 Billion
8.3%$2.4 Billion
17.9%
2008 Vintage60+ Day Delinquency
$3.8 Billion0.7%
$3.3 Billion0.6%
$397 Million1.6%
$73 Million3.8%
2007 Vintage60+ Day Delinquency
$9.0 Billion5.0%
$6.3 Billion3.0%
$1.9 Billion7.8%
$864 Million19.4%
2006 Vintage60+ Day Delinquency
$5.9 Billion 6.3%
$4.0 Billion4.3%
$1.2 Billion9.9%
$598 Million20.5%
2005 Vintage60+ Day Delinquency
$4.8 Billion5.0%
$3.5 Billion3.6%
$1.0 Billion9.2%
$284 Million16.1%
LTV > 95%60+ Day Delinquency
$10.6 Billion 5.4%
$6.8 Billion2.8%
$2.7 Billion9.3%
$1.1 Billion19.4%
Low Documentation60+ Day Delinquency
$6.3 Billion6.0%
$5.7 Billion5.5%
$481 Million10.0%
$105 Million22.4%
Interest Only & Option ARMs
60+ Day Delinquency $3.0 Billion
17.0%$2.5 Billion
15.9%$428 Million
21.7%$76 Million
23.7%
June 30, 2008
68
• $28.3 billion net risk-in-force
• 907,105 policies in force
• Average FICO score of 698
• 63,097 delinquent loans
• 7.0% delinquency ratio*
First-Lien Portfolio In-Force Summary
June 30, 2008
*Comprised of primary and pool insurance.
United Guaranty
69
80% of the first-lien portfolio is in fixed-rate loans.
Portfolio Net RIF by Productas of June 30, 2008
$1.1BN4%
$22.6BN80%
$2.7BN9%
$1.9BN7%
Fixed Rate Loans
Positively Amortizing ARM’s
Potential Neg-Am ARM’s
Interest-Only Loans
United Guaranty First-Lien Portfolio by Product
70
UGC is only a minor participant in the troubled bulk channel (subprime, Alt-A).
Portfolio Net RIF by Channelas June 30, 2008
$1.1BN4%
$27.2BN96%
Flow Channel
Bulk Channel
United Guaranty First-Lien Portfolio by Flow / Bulk Channel
71
5.01
4.694.41
4.26 4.29 4.29 4.39 4.49 4.51 4.59 4.62 4.684.92
4.734.52 4.44 4.52
4.684.89
5.065.28
5.655.93
6.33
7.42
7.80
8.13
3.763.51
3.263.14 3.20 3.26 3.36 3.39 3.48 3.56 3.59
3.723.91
3.743.56 3.56
3.713.98
4.234.39
4.654.89
5.30
5.70
6.08 6.09
6.50
6.85
7.21
6.946.81 6.92
6.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
Jan-06
Feb-06
Mar-06
Apr-06
May-06
Jun-06
Jul-06
Aug-06
Sep-06
Oct-06
Nov-06
Dec-06
Jan-07
Feb-07
Mar-07
Apr-07
May-07
Jun-07
Jul-07
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Industry (excluding UGC, Radian) Domestic First-Lien
United Guaranty Delinquency Rates – UGC vs. Industry (First-Lien Primary)
Industry*
United Guaranty
The first-lien mortgage delinquency ratio has consistently run below the industry average.
*Source: Mortgage Insurance Companies of America (MICA).Figures (for UGC and industry) are based on primary insurance and do not include pool insurance.
%
72
• $3.5 billion net risk-in-force
• 586,338 policies in force
• Average FICO score of 718
• 9,297 delinquent loans
• 1.6% delinquency ratio
United Guaranty Second-Lien Portfolio
In-Force Summary June 30, 2008
73
United Guaranty Analysis of Loss Reserve – Domestic Mortgage Product
• UGC’s Corporate Actuarial Department analyzes the loss reserve adequacy on a quarterly basis.- The total loss reserve equals the sum of the case reserves and incurred but not reported (IBNR)
reserves.
• In the actuarial testing of loss reserve adequacy, a variety of data and methods are employed.- Accident quarter data is the primary focus, which represents the date of first missed payment on a
loan.
- Reserving methods include but are not limited to: paid development, incurred development, Bornhuetter-Ferguson, risk development, count severity and reserve scorecard.
- A range of reserve estimates is established based on observed historical variance in loss reserve estimates and a selected confidence level.
- An updated analysis of the case reserve and IBNR factors is performed on a quarterly basis.
• The actuarial analysis results, together with any recommended changes in reserves, are reviewed on a quarterly basis and approved by UGC’s CFO, Controller and Chief Risk Officer, as well as by AIG’s Chief Actuary, Chief Credit Officer and the CFO of AIG’s Property and Casualty Group.
Mortgage guaranty insurance accounting requires reserves to be established based upon current delinquencies, but does not permit any provision for future delinquencies.
74
United Guaranty Loss Emergence
• The deterioration of the U.S. housing market has affected all segments of the mortgage business, but the high LTV second-lien mortgages are particularly sensitive to declining home values and, as a result, constitute a disproportionate share of incurred losses.
• First-lien net losses incurred are negatively affecting operating results as delinquencies progress through the claim cycle. Continued weakness in the U.S. economic and housing markets will continue to drive negative operating results.
Domestic FirstLien - $422MM56% of losses incurred
Domestic SecondLien - $328MM44% of losses incurred
Domestic SecondLien - $3.5BN11% of portfolio
Domestic FirstLien - $28.3BN89% of portfolio
United Guaranty Domestic Mortgage Net Risk-In-ForceJune 30, 2008
Near-term results will continue to reflect market downturn.
United Guaranty Domestic Mortgage Net Losses IncurredSecond Quarter 2008
75
• Tightened underwriting standards and eligibility guidelines
• Implemented expanded “declining markets” policy restricting LTV to 90% in about 50% of the total Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSA) in the country
• Increased rates in appropriate business segments
• Established new and modified existing portfolio concentration caps
• Continued evaluation of market conditions and portfolio performance to determine need for future changes in eligibility, guidelines and/or pricing
United Guaranty First-Lien Key Risk Initiatives
UGC continues to implement key risk initiatives aimed at improving the quality of new business production.
Flow Commitment Volume by LTV
60% 67% 72%77%
86%
95%
97% 99%
40% 33% 28%
23%14%
5%
3%1%
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-0888%
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
<= 95% > 95% Wtd. Avg. LTV
Fl ow Commi t me nt Vol ume by FI CO
70% 76% 79% 82% 86%91%
94% 95%5%6%
9%
12%14%
16%19%21%
2%4%
5%5%9%
-5,000
10,00015,00020,00025,00030,000
Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08
Jun-08660
680
700
720
740
760
780
660 & higher 620 - 659 < 619 Wtd. Avg. FICO
Commitments(# Units)
FICO
LTV
Commitments(# Units)
76
• UGC has implemented significant changes in eligibility guidelines and pricing.– Eliminated alternative risk
product – Eliminating all purchase money
(“piggyback”) seconds– Eliminating all national accounts
business
UGC continues to implement key risk initiatives designed to improve the quality of new business production.
United Guaranty Second-Lien Key Risk Initiatives
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
2006 Actual
2007 Actual
2008 Forecast
$19.0
$9.0
$1.8
$ Billions
New Insurance Written
77
American General Finance
78
This table is for informational purposes only. AGF’s loan underwriting process does not use FICO scores as a primary determinant for credit decisions. AGF uses proprietary risk scoring models in making credit decisions. Delinquency figures are shown as a percentage of outstanding loan balances, consistent with mortgage lending practice. Differences in totals by columns and rows are due to rounding.
American General FinanceReal Estate Portfolio Total Portfolio FICO (≥
660) FICO (620 –
659) FICO (< 620)(as of June 30, 2008)Outstandings $20.1 Billion $9.6 Billion $3.5 Billion $6.7 Billion
LTV 80% 83% 80% 75%60+ % 3.50% 2.07% 4.52% 5.03%
2007 Vintage $4.3 Billion $1.3 Billion $938.0 Million $2.0 BillionLTV 78% 82% 80% 75%
60+ % 3.35% 2.23% 3.61% 3.96%2006 Vintage $3.4 Billion $1.2 Billion $663.1 Million $1.5 Billion
LTV 81% 87% 81% 76%60+ % 4.85% 2.94% 5.21% 6.27%
2005 Vintage $4.5 Billion $2.7 Billion $813.6 Million $981.1 MillionLTV 82% 85% 82% 76%
60+ % 3.89% 2.50% 5.98% 6.02%2004 Vintage $4.3 Billion $3.3 Billion $527.2 Million $473.2 Million
LTV 81% 83% 80% 75%60+ % 2.48% 1.59% 4.72% 6.20%
LTV Greater than 95.5% $3.5 Billion $2.8 Billion $413.2 Million $211.2 MillionLTV 99% 99% 99% 98%
60+ % 3.69% 3.01% 6.77% 6.41%
Low Documentation $506.2 Million $264.8 Million $160.4 Million $81.0 MillionLTV 76% 78% 76% 71%
60+ % 8.42% 7.75% 9.37% 8.71%Interest Only $1.5 Billion $1.2 Billion $260.3 Million $22.1 Million
LTV 89% 89% 88% 79%60+ % 5.78% 4.55% 10.77% 15.52%
79
$0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30
Billions
YE04
YE05
YE06
YE07
2QE08
Real Estate Non-Real Estate Retail Sales Finance
$23.814%
8%14% $24.378%
9%15%76%
80%
Total Net Receivables Before Allowance
American General Finance Portfolio Mix
$26.576% 16% 8%
$25.5
$20.2
6%
78% 15% 7%
80
Billions
$1.4$1.2
$0.4$0.3
$0.1 $0.1
-$0.1
-$0.3
$0.0$0.2
$0.3
$0.0-$0.2 -$0.2
-$0.6
$0.0
$0.6
$1.2
$1.8
1Q052Q053Q054Q051Q062Q063Q064Q061Q072Q073Q074Q071Q082Q08
AGF has maintained its underwriting discipline despite experiencing lower volume and growth.
* Excludes Equity One portfolio acquisition. 1Q08 net growth including Equity One is $0.8 billion.
American General Finance Net Real Estate Loan Growth
*
81
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2004 2005 2006 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08
AGF Total Real Estate
60+ Day Delinquency*
* Source: First American CoreLogic, LoanPerformance
Subprime ABS Real Estate Market
As of April, 2008
American General Finance AGF vs. “Subprime ABS Market”
82
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
YE03 YE04 YE05 YE06 YE07 2QE08
With continued weakness in the economy and mortgage markets, AGF’s delinquency and losses continued to rise from recent all-time lows.
However, they are within the target ranges set in 1997.
Target range 3.0% -
4.0%
American General Finance Real Estate Credit Quality
60+ Day Delinquency
Net Charge-off Ratio
Target range 0.75% -
1.25%
83
American General Finance Charge-Off and Allowance History
$311
$466
$280
$456
$265
$523
$230
$489
$288
$602
$213
$803
$0
$150
$300
$450
$600
$750
$900
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2QE08
Net Charge-Off Allowance (period end)
Millions
84
• 97% of mortgages are underwritten with full income verification
• 91% are fixed-rate mortgages; only about 5% of the total mortgage portfolio re-sets interest rates by the end of 2008; another 2% by the end of 2009
• Adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs): borrowers are qualified on a fully-indexed and fully-amortizing basis as of origination
• Weighted-average Loan-to-Value remains constant at 80%
• No delegation of underwriting to unrelated parties
• No Option ARMs
• Substantially all loans are:
– First mortgages (92%)
– Owner occupant borrowers (94%)
• Geographically diverse portfolio
American General Finance Risk Mitigating Practices – Real Estate Portfolio
85
Conclusions
86
Conclusions
• AIG’s exposures to the mortgage-related credit markets will continue to be negatively affected by the worsening economy and the consequent increases in mortgage delinquencies and loss severity.
• AIG intends to de-risk the portfolios, where appropriate, within the four segments: capital markets, investments, mortgage insurance and consumer finance.
• AIG believes that the mark-to-market losses taken through the income statement and balance sheet materially exceed the ultimate future credit losses which may be realized in the portfolios.
• Notwithstanding the fact that AIG cannot reasonably assert that the recovery period is temporary, currently AIG has the intent and ability to hold its mortgage-related securities and super senior credit default swap positions.
87