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title:AirQualityManagement:ConsiderationsforDevelopingCountriesWorldBankTechnicalPaper.EnergySeries
author: Wijetilleke,Lakdasa.;Karunaratne,Suhashini,A.R.
publisher: WorldBankisbn10|asin: 0821331914printisbn13: 9780821331910ebookisbn13: 9780585224251
language: English
subjectAirqualitymanagement--Developingcountries,Air--Pollution--Environmentalaspects.
publicationdate: 1995lcc: TD883.7.D44W541995ebddc: 363.73/92/0091724
Airqualitymanagement--Developing
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subject: countries,Air--Pollution--Environmentalaspects.
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AirQualityManagementConsiderationsforDevelopingCountries
WORLDBANKTECHNICALPAPERNUMBER278ENERGYSERIES
LakdasaWijetillekeandSuhashiniA.R.Karunaratne
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Copyright©1995TheInternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/THEWORLDBANK1818HStreet,N.W.Washington,D.C.20433,U.S.A.
AllrightsreservedManufacturedintheUnitedStatesofAmericaFirstprintingApril1995
TechnicalPapersarepublishedtocommunicatetheresultsoftheBank'sworktothedevelopmentcommunitywiththeleastpossibledelay.Thetypescriptofthispaperthereforehasnotbeenpreparedinaccordancewiththeproceduresappropriatetoformalprintedtexts,andtheWorldBankacceptsnoresponsibilityforerrors.Somesourcescitedinthispapermaybeinformaldocumentsthatarenotreadilyavailable.
Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthispaperareentirelythoseoftheauthor(s)andshouldnotbeattributedinanymannertotheWorldBank,toitsaffiliatedorganizations,ortomembersofitsBoardofExecutiveDirectorsorthecountriestheyrepresent.TheWorldBankdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyofthedataincludedinthispublicationandacceptsnoresponsibilitywhatsoeverforanyconsequenceoftheiruse.Theboundaries,colors,denominations,andotherinformationshownonanymapinthisvolumedonotimplyonthepartoftheWorldBankGroupanyjudgmentonthelegalstatusofanyterritoryortheendorsementoracceptanceofsuchboundaries.
Thematerialinthispublicationiscopyrighted.Requestsfor
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permissiontoreproduceportionsofitshouldbesenttotheOfficeofthePublisherattheaddressshowninthecopyrightnoticeabove.TheWorldBankencouragesdisseminationofitsworkandwillnormallygivepermissionpromptlyand,whenthereproductionisfornoncommercialpurposes,withoutaskingafee.PermissiontocopyportionsforclassroomuseisgrantedthroughtheCopyrightClearanceCenter,Inc.,Suite910,222RosewoodDrive,Danvers,Massachusetts01923,U.S.A.
ThecompletebacklistofpublicationsfromtheWorldBankisshownintheannualIndexofPublications,whichcontainsanalphabeticaltitlelist(withfullorderinginformation)andindexesofsubjects,authors,andcountriesandregions.ThelatesteditionisavailablefreeofchargefromtheDistributionUnit,OfficeofthePublisher,TheWorldBank,1818HStreet,N.W.,Washington,D.C.20433,U.S.A.,orfromPublications,TheWorldBank,66,avenued'Iéna,75116Paris,France.
Thecoverphotographshowsfactorychimneysinaresidentialdistrict,Estonia;photographbyCurtCarnemark©1993theWorldBank;printprovidedcourtesyofMr.MichaelWishart,WorldBankExternalAffairsDepartment.
ISSN:0253-7494
LakdasaWijetillekeisaprincipalchemicalengineerintheIndustryandEnergyDepartmentoftheWorldBank.SuhashiniA.R.Karunaratneisaconsultanttothesamedepartment.
LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData
Wijetilleke,Lakdasa,1933-Airqualitymanagement:considerationsfordevelopingcountries/LakdasaWijetillekeandSuhashiniA.R.Karunaratne.p.cm.(WorldBanktechnicalpaper,ISSN0253-7494;no.
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278.Energyseries)ISBN0-8213-3191-41.AirqualitymanagementDevelopingcountries.2.AirPollutionEnvironmentalaspects.I.Karunaratne,Suhashini,A.R.,1965-.II.Title.III.Series:WorldBanktechnicalpaper;no.278.IV.Series:WorldBanktechnicalpaper.Energyseries.TD883.7.D44W541995363.73'92'0091724dc2095-3248CIP
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Pagev
ContentsForeword ix
Abstract xi
Preface xiii
Acknowledgments xv
AbbreviationsandSymbols xvi
ConversionFactors xvii
ExecutiveSummary 1
EffectsofAirPollutantsonHealthandtheEnvironment
1
GreenhouseGases,AcidRain,Ozone,andChlorofluorocarbons
4
AmbientAirQualityandEmissionStandards 6
ValuationoftheBenefitsofMitigatingAirPollution 7
OptionsforMitigatingAirPollution 8
ConclusionsandRecommendations 12
1.AirPollution:AGrowingProblem 15
2.HealthandEnvironmentalEffectsofMajorPollutants,PartI:CarbonMonoxide,Hydrocarbons,OxidesofNitrogen,SuspendedParticulateMatter,andLead
21
CarbonMonoxide 21
Hydrocarbons 27
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OxidesofNitrogen 30
SuspendedParticulateMatter 33
Lead 34
3.HealthandEnvironmentalEffectsofMajorPollutants,PartII:GreenhouseGases,SulfurOxides/AcidRain,Ozone,andChlorofluorocarbons
41
CarbonDioxideandtheGreenhouseEffect 41
SulfurOxidesandAcidRain 43
Ozone 48
CFCsandStratosphericOzoneDepletion 54
RelevancetoDevelopingCountries 56
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4.AmbientAirQualityandEmissionStandards 59
AirQualityStandards 59
TheU.S.CleanAirActandAmendments 71
5.ValuationoftheBenefitsofMitigatingAirPollution 75
AHealth-BenefitsModel 76
TheCaseofThailand 77
RelevancetoDevelopingCountries 80
6.OptionsforMitigatingAirPollution 81
OptionsforReducingStationary-SourceEmissions 81
OptionsforReducingMobile-SourceEmissions 83
7.TowardanAirQualityManagementProgram 87
LegalFrameworkandInstitutionalArrangements 87
DevelopinganIntegratedProgramtoManageAirPollution
89
Glossary 93
References 97
Tables
1.1ApproximateToxicityWeightingFactorsforSelectedPollutants
18
2.1PredictedCOHbBloodConcentrationsforSubjectsEngagedinDifferentTypesofWork
22
2.2SignsandSymptomsofIncreasingCOHbLevelsinanAverageAdult
23
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2.3SummaryofCOEmissionsOutlook,19802005 26
2.4ContributionofRoadTransportSectortoTotalHCEmissionsinSelectedCities
30
2.5SummaryofNOxEmissionsOutlook,19802005 32
2.6SuspendedParticulateMatterinVariousCitiesBetween1980and1984
35
3.1IncreaseinGreenhouseGases 43
3.2ConcentrationsofSO2atSelectedGEMS/AirSites,198089(mg/m3)
45
3.3OzoneLevelsinSelectedCities,1989 50
3.4EffectsofOzoneatVariousConcentrations 52
3.5HumanResponsetoSingleOzoneExposure 53
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4.1ComparativeAmbientAirQualityStandardsof14Countries/EconomiesandTwoInternationalOrganizations
61
4.2China'sNationalAmbientAirQualityStandards(mg/m3)
62
4.3India'sAmbientAirQualityStandards(mg/m3) 62
4.4WorldHealthOrganizationGuidelinesforAmbientAirQualityStandards
63
4.5TransportSectorContributiontoNationwidePollutantEmissionLevelsinFrance,1990
64
4.6TransportSectorContributiontoAirPollutantEmissionsinSelectedCountries
65
4.7ExhaustEmissionStandardsforGasoline-PoweredLight-DutyVehiclesinSelectedIndustrializedCountries(g/km)
67
4.8Brazil'sEmissionStandardsforGasoline-andAlcohol-PoweredLight-DutyVehicles(g/km)
68
4.9Mexico'sEmissionStandardsforGasoline-PoweredMotorVehicles(g/mile)
68
4.10U.S.EmissionStandardsforLight-DutyDieselVehicles(g/mile)
70
4.11U.S.EmissionStandardsforHeavy-DutyDieselVehicles(g/BHP-hr)
70
4.12CurrentHeavy-DutyDieselPollutantLimitsinEurope(g/kWh)
71
4.13U.S.FuelSpecifications19922000,BasedonU.S.CleanAirActAmendmentsof1990
72
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5.1Bangkok:EstimatedImpactsonMorbidityandMortalityof20PercentReductioninAmbientConcentrationsofSPM
77
5.2Bangkok:EstimatedImpactsonMorbidityandMortalityof20PercentReductioninAmbientConcentrationsofLead
77
5.3Bangkok:EstimatedImpactsonMorbidityof20PercentReductioninAmbientConcentrationsofSO2
78
5.4Bangkok:EstimatedImpactsonMorbidityof20PercentReductioninAmbientConcentrationsofO3
78
5.5SummaryofHealthBenefitsof20PercentImprovementinAirQualityinBangkok
78
Figures
1.1RelationshipBetweenLevelofDevelopmentandAirQuality
17
2.1UptakeofCObyBlood,aDose-ResponseCurve 24
2.2TheDramaticRiseofAromaticsinU.S.GasolinePool,197989
29
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2.3EffectsofInorganicLeadonChildrenandAdultsLowestObservableAdverseEffectLevels
37
2.4CorrelationBetweenLevelsofLeadinGasolineandinBloodstream
38
2.5LeadPollutioninSelectedCities 38
3.1AverageConcentrationsofNO,NO2,andO3atVariousTimesofDayinLosAngeles
49
Boxes
2.1ChemicalNatureofCarbonMonoxide 25
2.2TheTrafficPoliceofJaipur,India 28
2.3ChemicalNatureofNitrogenOxides 31
2.4HarvardSixCitiesStudy 33
2.5TheEffectsofLead 39
3.1TheChemicalNatureofSulfurOxides 44
3.2SO2andEffectsofAcidRainintheCzechRepublic 47
3.3ChemistryofTroposphericOzoneFormation 49
3.4ChemistryofStratosphericOzoneFormation 54
3.5DepletionofStratosphericOzone 55
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ForewordThisstudyofairqualitymanagementfordevelopingcountriesreinforcesanimportantthemeoftheIndustryandEnergyDepartment'sworkonenergyandtheenvironmentthevalueofanearlyandproactiveapproach.Althoughsomedevelopingcountrieshaveregardedsustainedattentiontoenvironmentalissuesparticularlyonesthatdonothaveimmediate,localimplicationsaspreconditionedonfurthereconomicgrowth,alonger-runperspectiveshowsthatearlyadoptionofpoliciesforenvironmentallysaferenergyproductionandusecanallowdevelopingcountriestoresolveoramelioratesomeofthemostdifficultproblemsofindustrializationandgrowthatlowerhumanandeconomiccost.Further,goodpoliciestowardindustrialpollutionwillhelpeconomicgrowth,notreduceit.
LikeotherrecentworkintheWorldBankandelsewherethatincorporatesvaluationofenvironmentalandhealthfactorsintoeconomicappraisalcriteria,thisstudymakestheeffectsofairqualitytangibleatthelevelsoflocalproductivityandwell-being.Thestudydoesnotseeksimplytoimposetheairqualitystandardsoftheindustrialcountriesonthedevelopingcountriesbutratherarguesthatevaluationandregulatorymodelsdevelopedintheindustrialcountriescanprovideausefulbasisforfeasible,cost-effectiveairqualitymanagementprogramsthattakeaccountofthedistinctiveeconomicandepidemiologicalfeaturesofpollutionindevelopingcountries.Ataminimum,thestudysuggests,airqualitymanagementprogramsindevelopingcountriesshouldlimitemissionstocriticalpollutantloadsandprovideformaintainingandupdatingstandardsinanticipationofeconomicgrowthandtechnologicalprogress.Ultimately,thisapproachisbothsensibleandbeneficialinthelocalandglobalcontexts.
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Reformsareineffectualwithoutsupportfromlegal,institutional,andregulatorystructurescapableofmonitoringandenforcingsocialgoals.Integratedairqualitymanagementprogramsarenoexception.Focusingastheydoonindustry,transport,infrastructure,energyproduction,andsocialpolicy,airqualityprogramsnecessarilyrequireacross-sectoralapproachandacommitmenttoaddresstheproblemasanationalpriority.TheBankandtechnicalassistanceprogramssuchastheEnergySectorManagementAssistanceProgramme(ESMAP)arealsoseekingtomarshalexpertiseonthesesubjects.AnIENstudynowinprogressonfuelsreformulationforreducedemissionsandaforthcomingpaperoncleancoaltechnologiesfordevelopingcountriesareamongthepublicationswearepreparingtoassistdevelopingcountriesinmakingenvironmentallyandeconomicallysounddecisionsonenergyproductionanduse.
RICHARDSTERNDIRECTORINDUSTRYANDENERGYDEPARTMENT
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AbstractTheburningoffossilfuelsleadstotheproductionofpollutantssuchascarbonmonoxide(CO);sulfuroxides(SOx);nitrogenoxides(NOx);hydrocarbons(botharomaticsandaliphatics);lead;andinhalableparticulatessuchasdust,smoke,andfumes.Insufficientquantitiesthesepollutantscaninjurepeople,forests,andcrops.Moreover,consumptionoffossilfuelsandproductionofcertainindustrialchemicalsalsoappeartobedamagingthelayerofstratosphericozone,whichhelpsprotecttheearthfromtheharmfuleffectsofthesun'srays.Pollutionalsoappearstobedrivingthegreenhouseeffect,whichmaythreatentheoverallstabilityoftheglobalecosystem.
Althoughairpollutionismostoftenassociatedwiththeindustrializedcountries,ithasbecomeasignificantandincreasingprobleminmanydevelopingcountries,aseconomicgrowthstimulatesconsumptionoffossilfuelsforuseinindustryandtransport;pollutionlevelsinsomedeveloping-countrycities(especiallywherebasicindustriesarelocatedinmetropolitansettingsandregulationislaxorabsent)arealreadyworsethanthoseofsomeindustrialcountries.Theinhabitantsofdevelopingcountriesarealsomorelikelytosufferthedetrimentalhealtheffectsthatcanresultfrombreathingpollutedair,inpartbecausetheygenerallyspendmoretimeoutdoorsandaremorelikelytotravelinopenmotorvehicles.Thisstudyseekstoprovideabasisfordevelopingcountriestodevelopeffectiveairqualitymanagementprograms.
Thepaperbeginsbyoutliningthenatureandextentoftheproblemaswellassomebasicconceptsthatareofrelevancetodevelopingcountries(suchastoxicityweightingfactors).Chapters2and3introducetheairpollutantsofconcernanddetailtheirdetrimental
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effectsonthephysicalenvironmentandonthehealthofchildrenandadults.Chapter4providesinformationontheambientairqualityandemissionstandardsofvariouscountries,includingtheUnitedStates,aswellasthoseestablishedbytheWorldHealthOrganization.Sincemostdevelopingcountrieshavenotyetestablishedairqualitystandards,industrializedcountriesprovidemostoftheexamples.Thesestandardsneednotnecessarilybeduplicatedbythedevelopingcountriesbutrathercanbeusedasguidelines.Chapter5showshowtoevaluatethebenefitsofreductionofvariousairpollutants.UsingThailandasanexample,thechaptershowshowairqualityanalysishelpedtechniciansandofficialspinpointleadandSPMashavingthemostdangerousconcentrationsintheBangkokareaandasrepresentingthebesttargetsformitigation.Chapter6looksatsomeoptionsformitigatingairpollutionfromstationaryandmobilesources.Chapter7presentsconclusionsandrecommendationsaboutairqualitymanagementstrategiesthatmaybehelpfultodevelopingcountries.
Botheconomicandenvironmentallogicargueforvigorousactiontocontrolairpollutionintheearlystagesofdevelopment,whenitisbothcheaperandmoreeffectivetodeployanti-pollutionmeasures.Conversely,failuretodevelopeffectiveairqualitymanagementsystemswillmeanworseningairpollutionatthelocalandgloballevels.
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PrefaceMitigatingtheadverseenvironmentalandhealtheffectsassociatedwitheconomicdevelopmentthroughtimelyandcost-effectiveprogramsshouldbeahighpriorityfordevelopingcountries,forbothlocalandglobalreasons.Thechallengesforthedevelopingcountriesaretobenefitfromtheexperienceoftheindustrializedcountries,avoidtheirmistakes,andestablishthebasisforsoundeconomicdevelopmentwhilepreservinghumanhealthandthequalityoftheenvironment.Eachcountryofcoursewillfaceuniqueproblems,butallcountriesthatwishtoensureenvironmentalqualitywillhavetomakethecommitmenttodosoahighpriority.
Unfortunately,airqualitymanagementandenhancementoftenbecomesubjectsofconcernonlywhenairpollutionreachescrisislevels.Generally,bythetimeairpollutionisrecognizedasamajorhealthhazard,thefactorsthatexacerbateitmayhavebecomeirreversibleorextremelycostlytoremedy.Developingcountriesgenerallyhavebeenmuchslowerthantheindustrialcountriesinrecognizingtherisksandintakingtechnicalstepstoreduceairpollutionfromautomobilesandindustrialfacilities.Clearly,however,theproblemhasimmediate,localeffectsaswellasglobalimplications.
Onereasonforthispatternofneglectisalackofunderstandingofthebenefitsofenhancingairquality.Thisstudydescribestheproblem,thehealtheffects,andthebenefitsthatcouldaccruefromreducingpollution.Thedataarepresentedinaconciseformsothatpolicymakers,administrators,andtechnocratsespeciallyindevelopingcountriescanfocustheireffortsondevelopingresults-orientedprograms.
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Evenwhenairpollutionisrecognizedasaproblem,addressingitinitscorrectperspectiveanddefiningthescopeofremedialmeasuresarecomplextasks.Themagnitudeofthetechnicalandpolicyissuesandthecapital-intensivenatureofmanysolutionstendtodiscourageasystematizedapproach.Withoutoversimplifyingtheoptions,thisstudyattemptstopresentcost-effectiveandsystematicstrategiesforaddressingthepollutionproblem.
Iftheyhavenotdonesoalready,developingcountriesshouldpromulgateclearlegalframeworksforcontrollingairpollution.Thiswillfacilitatetheestablishmentofairqualitystandardsandregulations,alongwithagenciestomonitorcomplianceandundertakeenforcement.Amongthefirststepsshouldbeaccuratemeasurementsofambientairqualityandthecorrelationofthesemeasurementswithepidemiologicaldatatodeterminetheharmfuleffectsofairpollutionaswellasthepotentialsocialandeconomicbenefitsofreducingit.Thestudyalsoemphasizestheimportanceofinstitutionalstrengtheningandtrainingofstaffasprerequisitesforthedevelopmentofanairqualitymanagementprogramandidentifieskeyobjectivesofaneffectiveprogram.
Thestudyprovidesthebackgroundagainstwhichanairqualitymanagementprogram'ssubcomponentssuchastrafficmanagement,fuelssubstitution,fuelsreformulation,andenergydemandmanagementshouldbedeveloped.Clearlythecosts
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ofimplementingthesedifferentoptionswilloftenbesubstantial.Anassessmentofinvestmentrequirementsforeachoftheabove-mentionedoptionswouldbeastudybyitself,butafollow-upstudytothepresentworkwilladdressoneofthesubcomponents,fuelsreformulaiton,anditishopedthatthiswillclarifysomeofthecostsandbenefitsofprogramsneededtomitigateairpollutionandstimulatefurtherworkinthefield.
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AkcnowledgementsThispaperisbasedonareviewofcurrentliteratureanddataonairpollution.SpecialthanksgotoMichaelWalsh;toMohanMunasingheandMadeleineNawar(PollutionandEnvironmentalEconomicsDivision,EnvironmentDepartment,WorldBank)fortheircomments;andtoPhillipsawickiandPaulWolmanfortheireditorialassistanceandhelpfulsuggestions.WordprocessingwasprovidedbyCarole-SueCastronuovo.GraphicswerepreparedbyS.A.D.SubasingheandCathyA.Kocak.
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AbbreviationsandSymbolsCFCs Cholorofluorocarbons
CO Carbonmonoxide
CO2 Carbondioxide
COHb Corboxyhemoglobin
g/BHP-hr
Gramsperbrakehorsepowerperhour
g/km gramsperkilometer
g/kWh gramperkilowatthour
g/l Gramsperliter
g/mile Gramspermile
g/test gramspertestkm Kilometer(103meters)
l Wavelengthoflight
n Frequencyoflight
mg/m3 Milligramspercubicmeter
nm Nanometer(10-9meters)
NOx Oxidesofnitrogen(NOandNO2)
O3 Ozone
PM10 Particulatematterof10micronsorlessinsize
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ppb Partsperbillion
ppm Partspermillion
SOx Oxidesofsulfur(SO2andSO3)
SPM Suspendedparticulatematter
TSP Totalsuspendedparticulates
VOCs Volatileorganiccompounds
vol-% Volumepercent
wt-% Weightpercent
mg/m3 Microgramspercubicmeter
mm Micrometer(10-6meters)
°C DegreesCelsius
°F DegreesFarhrenheit
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ConversionFactorsUnitsoflength
1mile(mi)=1.6kilometer(km)
Massunits
1pound(lb.)=0.45kilogram(kg)
1metricton(t)=103Kilogram(kg)
1shortton(shton)=2000lb.=9.07x102kilogram(kg)
Pressureunits
1atmosphere(atm)=101.325kilopascal(kPa)
1psi(lb/in2)=6.895kilopascal(kPa)
Temperatureunits
1°F=1.8°C+32
Volumeunits
1liter(L)=1000cm3=10-3m3
1USgallon(gal)=3.785x10-3m3
Toconvertvolumemeasures(ppm)toweightmeasures(mg/m3)forair
pollutants,thefollowingformulawasused:
mg/m3=ppmxmolecularweightx40.91
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ExecutiveSummaryAirpollutionisamajorprobleminmostcountries.Itiscausedprimarilybyenergyuseintransportationandindustry,althoughnaturealsocontributesthroughsucheventsasvolcaniceruptionsandforestfires.Thisreportdiscussesthehealthandenvironmentalimpactsofairpollution,thecostsofmitigationmeasures,andthecostsofinaction.Itconcludesbymakingrecommendationsforpreparationofanintegratedairqualitymanagementprogram.
Manufacturedgoodsandservicesaretheproductsofindustrialactivity,andvigorousindustrialactivityistheeconomicbasisformanyotheractivities,includingsocialservices.Itisthereforeimportantthatactivitiesthatraisethestandardofliving,especiallyindevelopingcountries,shouldsucceed.Thissuccess,however,shouldnotandneednotbeachievedbyturningablindeyetoenvironmentaldegradation.Economicdevelopment,ifproperlyplanned,neednotcauseextensiveorirreversibleenvironmentaldamage;conversely,environmentalprotectioncanbeachievedwithoutthwartingdevelopment.
Theconcentrationofpollutantsintheambientairhasgenerallyincreasedasurbanizationhasproceeded.Therefore,strategiestoprotectairqualitycanandshouldbeputintoplaceasdevelopmentproceeds,beforeseriousandirreversibledamageisdone.
EffectsofAirPollutantsonHealthandtheEnvironment
Moststudiesofairpollutantshavebeenbasedondatafromtheindustrializedcountries.Nonetheless,theirfindingsarehighlyrelevanttodevelopingcountriesaswell,wherehighratesofurbanizationandnonexistentorinadequateenvironmentalregulations
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oftenleadtoairpollutionratesgreaterthanthoseincomparableregionsinNorthAmericaandEurope.
CarbonMonoxide
Gasolineconsumedinmotorvehiclesisthemainsourceofcarbonmonoxide(CO)inmetropolitanareas.CarbonmonoxidelevelsintheUnitedStatesincreasedfrom73millionmetrictonsin1940to100milliontonsin1973,astheU.S.motorvehiclefleetincreasedtremendously(WHO1979:23).SimilardatafromotherOECDcountriesconfirmtheCO-vehiclelinkage.Concomitantly,theinstallationofcatalyticconvertersinmotorvehiclesintheUnitedStatesreducedCOemissionsaswellasambientCOconcentrationsdramatically.Emissionsintheindustrializedcountriesaregenerallyonthedeclinebecauseofmorestringentstandardsandthemorerapidreplacementratesofoldervehicleswiththosehavingloweremissionfactors(Holdgateandothers1982;Flachsbart1992).EmissionsofCOinthedevelopingcountries,incontrast,areprojectedtoincreasefrom40percentoftheworld'ssharein1980to58percentin2005(OECD/IEA1991:56).
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InhalationofCOhasdetrimentaleffectsonhumanhealthbecausetheaffinityofhemoglobininthebloodforCOisabout240timesthatofitsaffinityforoxygen(Romieu1992).Onceinhaled,COformsastrongcoordinatebondwiththeironatomoftheprotohaemcomplexinhemoglobintoproducecarboxyhemoglobin(COHb).Thiscompound,inturn,impairstheoxygen-carryingcapacityofbloodandreducestheamountofoxygenavailableinthebloodtocarryoutnormalbodilyactivities.COHblevelsofapproximately1.2to1.5percentarenormallyfoundinthegeneralpopulation,butinareasoftrafficcongestion,COHblevelsinhumanscanreach3percent.ElevatedCOHblevelsareparticularlydangerousforpeoplewithheartdiseaseorrespiratoryproblems,pregnantwomen,andinfants.
Hydrocarbons
Hydrocarbonsareorganiccompoundsconsistingmainlyofcarbonandhydrogen.Straight-chaincompoundsareknownasaliphatics;compoundshavingacyclicstructurearecalledaromatics.Hydrocarbonsareprecursorstoozoneformation.Aromaticsingasolinepromotetheformationofnitrogenoxides,andhydrocarbonsinteractwiththesenitrogenoxidesinthepresenceofsunlighttoformozone.Athighconcentrations,hydrocarbonscauseminorirritationofmucosaandhaveageneralnarcoticeffect.Benzene,a6-carbonaromatic,isamajorindustrialchemicalandisclassifiedasaknownhumancarcinogenbecauseofitslinktoadultleukemia.Formaldehydeisashort-termrespiratoryandskinirritantandapossiblecarcinogen.
Coalandpetroleumarethetwolargeorganicreservoirsfromwhicharomaticcompoundsareobtained.Petroleumisthemainsourceofbenzene,toluene,andxylene,allusedinthechemicalindustryandintheproductionofhigh-octanegasoline.Ironically,theU.S.decisiontophaseoutanotherdangerouspollutantleadatthebeginningofthe
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1970s,alongwithadesireforhighergasolineoctanelevels,increasedthedemandforaromatics.Hence,beforelimitsof1percentonbenzeneand25percentonaromaticswereimposedbythe1990U.S.CleanAirActAmendments,benzenelevelshadrisentoabove5percentandaromaticstomorethan30percent(seeOxy-FuelNews1990).Maximumpermissiblelevelsofbenzeneandaromaticsinmostcountriesare3percentand30percent,respectively.
OxidesofNitrogen
GenerallyexpressedintheinclusivetermNOx,thevariousoxidesofnitrogencompriseNO(nitrogenoxide),N2O(nitrousoxide),andNO2(nitrogendioxide).Nitrogenoxidesintheatmospherereducevisibility,contributetotheformationofacidaerosols,exacerbateglobalwarming,formozoneatgroundlevel,andactascatalystsinthedecompositionofozoneintheupperatmosphere.Inpeopleexposedtothepollutantforlongperiods,nitrogendioxidealsocausesirreversiblelungdamage.Otherilleffectsincludebronchitis,chesttightness,burningoftheeyes,andheadaches.Asthmaticsareparticularlyvulnerabletotheseproblems.RecurrentexposuretohighconcentrationsofNO2ismoreharmfulthancontinuousexposuretolower-levelconcentrations.
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Bacterialactioninthesoil,volcaniceruptions,andlightningallnaturaleventsputmuchgreateramountsofoxidesofnitrogenintotheatmospherethanhumanactivities.Naturalemissionsaredilutedovertheentireplanet,however.Hence,whereasthenaturalconcentrationofnitrogendioxideisabout0.4to9.4microgramspercubicmeter(mg/m3)worldwide,theaverageannualmeaninurbanareasrangesfrom20to90mg/m3(WorldBank1988:218),illustratingboththedamagingeffectsofhumanactivityandthepotentialforremediation.
SuspendedParticulateMatter
Suspendedparticulatematter(SPM),particles10micronsorlessinsize,remainintheatmospherelongerthanlargerparticles.Intheatmosphere,SPMreducesvisibilityandreactswithotherairpollutantstocreatenewpollutants.SPMalsocontributestorespiratoryillnessesbypenetratingdeepintotherespiratorytract.Thetoxiceffectdependsontheparticle'sphysicalandchemicalnature,particularlywithrespecttogasesadsorbedonthesurfaceorabsorbedwithinit.
InhalableSPMcomesprimarilyfromthecombustionofdieselfuelintrucksandbusesandisincreasedbyotherfactors,includingpoor-qualitydieseloil,substandardengineoperationandmaintenance,andtrafficcongestion.Althoughthetoxicityofparticulatesislowerthanthatofotherairpollutants,suchaslead,largevolumesofparticulatesareemitted,andinhalableSPM,especiallyparticlessmallerthan2microns,poseamuchgreaterriskthanlargerSPMbecauseoftheirgreaterabilitytopassthroughthenaturalprotectivemechanismsofthehumanrespiratorysystemandclingtotheinnertissuesofthelungs.AGlobalEnvironmentMonitoringSystems(GEMS)studyoftheglobalspreadofparticulatesfrom1980to1984foundthatallowableSPMlevelsin37of41citiescameclosetoorexceededWorldHealthOrganization(WHO)guidelines(French1990:11).The
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WorldBankestimatesthatreductionofSPMtosafelevelscouldreduceprematuredeathsby300,000to700,000annuallyindevelopingcountries(WorldBank1992:52).
Lead
Regulatoryagenciesandhealthorganizationshavenotreachedaconsensusonexactlyhowmuchleadinthebloodconstitutesleadpoisoning.Overtheyears,however,alloftheseorganizationshaveloweredthethresholdoftoxicityasnewinformationhasbecomeavailableabouttheneurologic,reproductive,andpossiblehypertensiveeffectsoflead.Leadpoisoningcanoccurevenwithoutexposuretomajordosesoflead,sincethebodyaccumulatesleadovertimeandreleasesitonlyslowly.Itisthusthetotalbodyburdenofleadthatistherelevantfactor(AgencyforToxicSubstancesandDiseaseRegistry1992:6).
Theforegoingnotwithstanding,leadintakehasmoresevereconsequencesforchildrenthanforadults.Medicalevidencenowshowsthatdevelopmentofthenervoussysteminchildrencanbeaffectedadverselyatblood-leadlevelsof10mg/dl(Agencyfor
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ToxicSubstancesandDiseaseRegistry1992:8).Neuralgicandotherdefectscausedbyleadpoisoningmaybeirreversible,andacuteexposuresometimesleadstodeath.
Adefinitecorrelationhasbeenfoundbetweenthelevelofleadingasolineandinthehumanbloodstream.Asnotedabove,leadadditivesingasolineweredrasticallyreducedintheUnitedStatesbetween1972and1984,andasharpdeclineinambientleadlevelsaswellasleadlevelsinthebloodwasobservedatthesametime(Shy1990).
Significantcontributorstoairborneleadaremetalsmelters,batterymanufacturingplants,andemissionsfromfueladditivesandleadedgasoline.Thelastisnowconsideredtobebyfarthemostseriousproblem.Althoughonlyabout10percentofallrefinedleadgoesintogasoline,suchleadmayconstitute60percentofleademissionsintotheatmosphere.Incitieswithhightrafficcongestion,thisproportionmaybecloserto90percent.
GreenhouseGases,AcidRain,Ozone,andChlorofluorocarbons
Airpollutionhaslongbeenassociatedwithurbanizationandindustrialization.Althoughmanydevelopedcountrieshavemanagedtoreducethelevelsofsomeairpollutants,others,forexampleinSouthernandEasternEurope,haveseenlevelsofairpollutionincrease.OfparticularconcernistheworseningairpollutioninthepopulouscitiesofLatinAmerica,China,India,andSoutheastAsia.Itisestimatedthatoneofeverytwopeopleintheworldwillbeanurbanresidentbytheyear2000,andoneineverythreewillliveinacityofatleast100,000inhabitants.Eightoutofevery10peoplewillliveinadevelopingcountry.Againstthisbackground,thegrowingintensityofairpollutioniscauseforrealconcern.
Whereaslocalpollutantsareprimarilyresponsibleforthe
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deteriorationofurbanairquality,regionalandglobalpollutants(suchassulfuroxides,nitrogenoxides,ozone,andgreenhousegases)arethecausesofelevatedlevelsofairpollutioninresidentialurbanareas,ruraltowns,nationalparks,andrecreationalsites.Regionalandglobalpollutantsknownoboundariesandaretransportedintheairtofardistances.Thegreenhouseeffect,depletionofthestratosphericozonelayer,andacidrainarecausedbyaggregationsofregionalandglobalpollutantsemittedbydifferentandwidespreadsources.Thus,forexample,emissionsintheIndiansubcontinentorAfricacouldultimatelyaffecttherestoftheworld.
TheGreenhouseEffect
Carbondioxide(CO2),nitrousoxide(N2O),methane(CH4),ground-levelozone(O3),andchlorofluorocarbons(CFCs)absorbinfraredradiationfromtheearth,actingineffectasaninsulatingblanketthatpreventsheatfromescapingtheatmosphere.Overthepastcenturyaverageglobaltemperaturehasincreasedbybetween0.3°Cand0.6°C,whichconformswellwiththeavailablemodelsoflong-termresponsetogreenhousegasproduction.Approximately50percentofglobalwarmingisattributedtoCO2.Chlorofluorocarbonsareresponsibleforabout20percent,methaneabout16percent,and
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ground-levelozone8percent.Thebulkoftheremaining6percentorsoiscontributedbynitrousoxide(Tétrault1992).
TheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(seeTétrault1992)hasestimatedthatatthecurrentrateofproductionofCO2andtheothergases,adoublingoftheirpreindustrialconcentrationswilloccursometimeinthe21stcentury.Thepanelhasestimatedthattheaverageplanetarytemperaturecouldrisebybetween1.5°Cand4.5°Cinthisperiod.Globaltemperaturechangesof1°to2°Chavetypicallytaken1,000to10,000years,andariseof5°CwasresponsibleforbringingtheEarthoutofthelasticeage.
Drasticchangesintheglobaltemperaturecouldcauseashiftinclimaticzones,changesinpatternsofrainfall,moreextremeweatherconditions,andariseinthesealevelthatcouldseriouslyaffectlifeinmanycountries.Ifglobalwarmingcontinuesunchecked,meltingofthepolaricecapscouldraisetheoceanlevel5to6metersbytheendofthe21stcentury,floodinglow-lyingcoastalareasallovertheworld(EnvironmentalUpdate1990).
Deforestationandthecombustionofcoal,oil,andnaturalgasinjectbillionsoftonsofcarbonintotheatmosphereeachyearandareresponsiblefortheincreaseinatmosphericCO2.Theburningoffossilfuelsalonegenerates20billiontonsofCO2,annually.Agasoline-fueledmotorvehicle,housingasingle16gallontankoffuel,generatesbetween300and400poundsofCO2(DeLuchiandothers1988).Itisestimatedthatmotorvehiclesemitalmost15percentoftheworld'stotalCO2.Asdevelopingcountriesindustrialize,theiremissionswillrisesteeplyandmaycompoundenvironmentalproblemsunlessthesecountriesacttolimitemissions.
SulfurOxidesandAcidRain
Mostsulfuremissionsareintheformofsulfurdioxide(SO2)andare
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producedbypublictransport,industries,andthermalpowergeneration.Extrapolationofdatafroma54-citystudyconductedbyGEMSovertheperiod198084,toinclude1.8billionurbanresidentsworldwide,foundthatwhereas625millionpeoplearoundtheworldliveinurbanareaswhereSO2levelswerewithintheWHOannualguidelinesof40to60mg/m3,upto1.2billionurbanresidentsliveinareaswheretheairqualityforSO2iseithermarginal(550millionresidents)orunacceptable(625millionresidents).
Clinicalstudiesusinghumansubjectsindicatethatchildrenandbothhealthyandat-riskadultsarevulnerabletotheeffectsofSO2.Individualswhosufferfromchronicrespiratorydiseases,suchasbronchitis,emphysema,andasthmamayexperiencecoughingandbreathingdifficultieswhenambientSO2concentrationsincreasefrom0.1to0.2ppm(U.S.Congress1987).
AtmosphericSO2combineswithwatertoproducedilutesulfurousandsulfuricacids,whichfalltoearthasacidrain.Becausetheacidsareformedhighintheatmosphere,theymaytravelasfaras1,000milesbeforeprecipitating.Untilrecently,acidrainwaslimitedtothenorthernhemisphere,withWesternEuropeandNorth
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Americaputtinganestimated90milliontonsofSO2intotheaireachyear.Theacidrainproblemhasnowintensifiedindevelopingcountriesasthesecountriesexpandtheirindustrialactivities.RecentdataindicatethreateninglevelsofsoilacidityinpartsofBrazil,Colombia,Venezuela,India,SoutheastAsia,Japan,andChina(Tétrault1992).
PlantsareverysensitivetoconcentrationsofatmosphericSO2andtothesynergisticeffectofSO2withlowlevelsofozoneornitrogenoxides.Itisestimatedthatabout75percentofEurope'scommercialforestshavesufferedfromdamagingconcentrationsofSO2(WorldResourcesInstitute1992:208).
TheindirecteffectsofSO2canbeseeninthemanylakesaroundtheworldthatcannolongersupportplantandanimallife.Acidrainisespeciallyharmfulinareaswherethebedrockisgraniteorwhereothermaterialispresentthatisincapableofneutralizingacid-forminghydrogenions.Acidrainisalsoerodingtheworld'srichheritageofoutdoorartandarchitecture,includingtheGreekruinsontheAcropolisandtheTajMahalinIndia.
Ozone
Ozoneisabluishgaswithapungentodor.Itspresenceintheatmospherecanhaveeitherharmfulorbeneficialeffectsonhumanhealthandwell-being,dependingonitsaltitude.
Ozoneatlowaltitudes(upto15kilometers)isreferredtoastroposphericozoneandisharmful.Itisformedthroughacomplicatedseriesofchemicalreactionsbetweenhydrocarbonsandnitrogenoxidesinthepresenceofsunlight.Thisozoneisthechiefconstituentofphotochemicalsmog,andevenoneortwohoursofexerciseinsmog-ladenaircanresultincoughing,painfulbreathing,andtemporarylossoflungfunction.Repeatedexposuretoozonemay
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resultinpermanentlungimpairmentorthedevelopmentofchroniclungdiseases,suchaspulmonaryfibrosis.
Stratosphericozone(above15kilometers)isbeneficialbecauseitshieldstheEarthtosomedegreefromultravioletB(UV-B)radiationfromthesun.A1percentdepletionofstratosphericozoneresultsina2percentincreaseinUV-Bradiationanda4percentincreaseinskincancer(Titus1986:1).IncreasedUV-Bradiationcanalsocausecataractsintheeyesandimpairtheskin'simmuneresponses.Meteorologicalconditionsandconcentrationsofcertainindustrialchemicalscontributetothedestructionofstratosphericozone.CFCs,throughaseriesofchemicalreactions,yieldchlorineatomsthatdepletetheozonelayer.Reportsfromaroundtheworldindicatethatthestratosphericozonelayerisshrinking,adevelopmentthatcouldhaveserioushealthandenvironmentalimplications.
AmbientAirQualityandEmissionStandards
Thecreationandemissionofairpollutantsareunavoidable,butemissionsandtheirambientconcentrationsarecontrollable.Theimpactofanypollutantisdeterminedbyitsconcentrationanddurationatanyparticularlevelintheatmosphere.Airquality
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standardsessentiallyidentifylevels,withanadequatemarginofsafety,beyondwhichapollutantcancauseharm.
Emissionstandardstocontrolharmfulemissionsaregenerallylinkedtoambientpollutionconcentrations.Thesestandardsshouldbebasedonepidemiologicaldata,ambientairquality(i.e.,theconcentrationsofpollutantsinthesurroundingarea),andambientairqualitystandards.EmissionstandardssetbytheU.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgency(EPA)havebeenadoptedbymostcountries.Someofthesestandardscouldberelaxedindevelopingcountries.WesternEuropeancountrieshaverespondedtotheirtransport-relatedairpollutionbyimplementingincreasinglyrigorousmotorfuelstandards.Gasolinespecificationsandformulationsnowconsideredessentialintheindustrializedcountriestomeetthesestringentstandardswouldrequireamajorrestructuringofrefineries.Sincetheuseofdieseloilfarexceedsgasolineconsumptionindevelopingcountriesasawhole,reformulationofgasolinetothestandardsneededinindustrializedcountriescanbefollowedatareducedpace.
Transport-RelatedEmissions
Automobiles,light-andheavy-dutytrucks,motorcycles,off-highwayvehicles,trains,aircraft,andshipsallcontributetoairpollution.ThetransportsectoristhelargestsourceofCO,HC,NOx,SPM,andleadintheatmosphere.Byfarthelargestcontributorstopollutioninmetropolitanareasareroadvehicles.
Transportemissionsareintensifiedbycongestedroads,poorvehiclemaintenance,oldvehicles,inferiorfuels,andtheincreasingnumberofvehiclesinuse.Forexample,thenumberofvehiclesinBangkokisincreasingatanastronomicalrate.Thailandaddsabout300to400newvehiclesaday(Sayeg1992:23).Thenumberofdiesel-poweredvehiclesworldwideisalsorisingquickly.Themajorconcernwithregardtodieselvehiclesisemissionofparticulates.
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TheU.S.CleanAirAct
TheU.S.CleanAirActwaspromulgatedtoensuretheprotectionandenhancementofU.S.airresources.The1970Act,asamended,setsasocietalgoalofachievinggoodairqualitywithoutconsiderationofthecostsinvolved.The1990CleanAirActAmendmentstightenedpollution-controlmeasuresincities,stipulatednecessarychangesintransportationfuels,andestablishedmorestringentexhaustemissionstandards.Amongthemoresignificantchangeswasarequirementthat2.7weight-percent(wt-%)minimumaverageoxygenmustbeaddedtogasolineduringthewinterincitiesthatarenotincompliancewithfederalairqualitystandards.TheU.S.standardsmaybetoostrictforsomedevelopingcountries,buttheyshouldprovideausefulbasisfordevelopingregulationsappropriatetoeachcountry.
ValuationoftheBenefitsofMitigatingAirPollution
Untilrecently,noattemptshadbeenmadetoquantifythebeneficialimpactsofcleanair.Thebenefitsusuallywerelumpedintoanall-inclusiveterm:improvementin
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thequalityoflife.Itisimperativethatappropriatecriteriaareadoptedtomeasurethehealthandotherbenefitsofreducingconcentrationsofambientairpollution.HealthbenefitsmodelshavenowbeendevelopedintheUnitedStates,WesternEurope,andJapan.Themodelsarelessthanperfect,buttheydoprovideausefulbasisforvaluationofbenefits,andwithappropriatemodificationtheycanbeusedtoquantifybenefitsindevelopingcountries.
Thehealthbenefitsmodelisbasedonthedamage-functionapproachtoestimatingbenefits.ThispaperpresentsanevaluationofacasestudyonThailandthatusesthismodeltodeterminetheeffectsonhumansofa20percentreductioninconcentrationsofambientairpollution.Beginningwithbaselineandprojectedchangesintheconcentrationofspecificpollutants,dose-responsefunctionsfromepidemiologicalandpopulationdataareusedincalculatingchangesinavarietyofhealthendpoints.Theeconomicvalueofthesehealthbenefitsisthenestimated.A1994estimateforThailandsuggeststhatthebenefitsaccruingfroma20percentreductionofambientairpollutantscouldrangefrom$750millionto$3.1billionannually(WorldBankdata).
OptionsforMitigatingAirPollution
Althoughthemajorsourceofairpollutioninmostmetropolitanregionsisthetransportsector,exceptionstothisrulearecommon.InThailand,Mexico,thePhilippines,India,Indonesia,andKorea,largepercentagesofthecountry'sindustrialplantsarefoundwithinmetropolitanareas.Hence,thecontributionstoairpollutionofboththeindustrialandtransportsectorsmustbetakenintoaccountwhenoptionsformitigatingairpollutionarebeingstudied.
ReducingStationarySourceEmissions
Mostdevelopingcountriesarguethatverystringentemission
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standardscouldhamperindustrialization,andsomehavemadecompellingargumentsforadoptingecologicallybasedemissionstandards.Suchstandardspresupposeacceptanceoftheconceptofcriticalpollutantloadsbycalculatingtheseforeachcountry.Forlargecountries,criticalpollutantloadsmustbecalculatedonanarea-widebasis.Theconceptimpliesthatdevelopingcountriescandecidetoadoptlessstringentstandardsthanhighlyindustrializedcountriesunlessepidemiologicaldataindicatethatsomeairpollutantisalreadycausinghealthproblems.Thisconceptshouldbeappliedwithcaution,ifatall.Ifacountryisindustrializingrapidly,morestringentstandardswillhavetobeadoptedinanticipationofhigherlevelsofpollution.
Airpollutionmitigationprogramsmayincludebothtechnological-andpolicy-basedchangesandwillbemosteffectiveifthechangesareidentifiedearlyinthedevelopmentcycle.
SwitchingtoNaturalGas.Switchingtocleanerfuelsisoneofthemostcost-effectivestrategiesforreducingemissions,particularlyofSO2andCO2.Thefuelofchoiceisnaturalgas,whichcontainsvirtuallynosulfurandwhosecombustionproduces
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farlessNOxthancoalorfueloil.Sincenaturalgashasahigherhydrogen-to-carbonratio,italsoproducesfarlessCO2duringcombustionthaneithercoalorfueloil.Acombined-cyclepowerplantusingnaturalgasproduces55percentlessCO2thanacoal-firedpowerplantperunitofelectricityproduced.
UsingHigher-Quality,CleanCoal.Greateruseoflow-sulfurcoalisanotheroptionfordevelopingcountriesdespitecoal'senvironmentaldrawbacks.Ifhigh-quality(i.e.,low-sulfur)coalcanbeproducedorimportedatareasonableprice,newcoal-washingtechnologiescanfurtherreduceitssulfurcontentby20to50percent.Othernewtechnologies,suchasfluidized-bedcombustionorintegratedgasificationcombined-cyclepowergeneration,alsohaveresultedinsubstantialSO2andNOxreductions(TavoulareasandCharpentier1994).
Thescrubbingofstackgasesfromcoal-firedpowerplantsalsocanreducebothSO2andNOxemissions.Scrubberscanremoveabout95percentoftheSO2andbetween70and90percentofNOxthatwouldotherwisebereleasedduringcombustion.Thecostsofinstallingscrubbersarehigh,however,especiallyforoldplants.Anotherdrawbackofscrubbersisthatlargequantitiesofsludgeandlow-gradegypsumareproducedduringthescrubbingprocess,creatingdisposalproblems.
EnhancingConservation.Energyconservationhasbotheconomicandenvironmentalbenefits.Modernizingofexistingplantsandinstallingequipmenttorecoverwasteheatforre-usetogeneratesteamorasprocessheatareenergyconservationoptionsthatalsoreduceemissionsofpollutants.Identifyingtheappropriateoptionsanddeterminingtheireconomicandenvironmentalbenefitsrequireamajorstudyofexistingfacilities,butthenecessaryinvestmentsarerelativelymodestandthebenefitssubstantial.
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TappingAlternativeEnergySources.Alternativeenergysources,suchashydro,wind,solar,geothermal,nuclear,andhydrogenpowercanbesubstitutedforfossilfuels.Nuclearpowerandhydropowerarethemostcommonlyusedalternativesources.Manydevelopingcountrieshavemadesignificantprogressindevelopingtheirhydropowerelectricgeneratingcapacity.Useofnuclearpowerhasnotmademuchprogressindevelopingcountries,withthenotableexceptionofKorea.
CuttingMobileEmissions
Motortransportvehiclescontributemosttotheincreasingconcentrationofairpollutantsinmetropolitanareas.Oldandpoorlymaintainedvehicles,congestedroads,andpoor-qualityfuelsaretheprimaryreasons.Thereplacementofoldervehicleswithneweroneswithemissioncontroldevices,maintenanceofin-usevehicles,cleanerreformulatedfuels,bettertrafficmanagement,introductionorexpansionofmasstransitsystems,androadimprovementsarethebestwaystoreducesuchpollution.
ReformulatingGasoline.Theindustrializedcountrieshavedonesubstantialworkonreformulatingmotorvehiclefuels,ashavesomeofthemoreadvanceddevelopingcountries.Reformulation,however,ishighlycapitalintensive,andthe
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developmentofacost-effectiveprogramiscriticaltoensurethatresourcesareusedtomaximizeenvironmentalandeconomicbenefitswhileavoidingsecondaryproblems.
OnesuchsecondaryproblemaccompaniedtheintroductionofcatalyticconverterstoreduceemissionsofCO,HC,andNOxfrommotorvehicles,whichinturnrequiredremovaloftheleadadditivesingasolinebecauseleadinterfereswiththecatalyst.(Theinitialobjectivewastoprotectthecatalystratherthantoprotecthumanhealth.Theharmfuleffectsofatmosphericleadonlybecameanissuelater.)Tocompensateforthelossinoctaneresultingfromtheremovaloflead,oilrefineriesincreasedthelevelsofbenzeneandaromatics,which,itsoonbecameclear,werethemselvesdangeroustohealthandtheenvironment.TheEPAhasnowlimitedthelevelsofaromaticsandbenzeneingasoline,forcingrefinerstomakemajorinvestmentstocompensateforthislossinoctane.
Severallessproblematicmethodsareavailabletoboostoctane(i.e.,withoutaddingleadorbenzeneandaromatics).Forexample,moreseverereformingofnaphthaandanincreaseinthereformer'scapacitywillmakeitpossibletomeetoctanerequirements.Ifreformingaloneisinadequate,isomerizationoralkylationprocessescanbeinstalledaswell.
Thecomplexinteractionsofabatementmeasuresunderlinetheneedforcarefulappraisaloftheextentoftheproblem,especiallywhenapplyingindustrial-countrymodelstodevelopingcountries.Inmostdevelopingcountries,dieseloilconsumptiongreatlyexceedsgasolineconsumption.Sincethequantityofgasolineconsumedisrelativelysmall,theamountofleadreleasedisalsolow.Thus,unlessepidemiologicaldatashowsserioushealtheffectsfromleadorhighlevelsofleadinambientair,leadremovalmaynotbehighpriorityinmanydevelopingcountriesatthistime.Ifevidenceshowsthatleadis
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asignificantproblem,however,thenitsremovalshouldreceivethehighestpriority.
AddingOxygenatestoGasoline.TheadditionofoxygenatestogasolineisnowmandatedinseveralU.S.citiesduringthewintermonths.Methyl-tertiary-butyl-ether(MTBE)istheoxygenateofchoice.MTBEprovidesadditionaloxygentocompletethecombustionprocessinadditiontoactingasanoctanebooster.TheuseofMTBEmayinvolveeitherconstructionofMTBEplantsorimportsofMTBEthatcanbeblendedintogasoline.
ReformulatingDieselOil.ThereformulationofdieseloilbyreducingitssulfurcontentwoulddecreaseemissionsofSO2andconsequentlyofsulfatesthatcontributetoSPMconcentrations.Inaddition,reductionoftheheavierhydrocarbonfractionsindieseloilbyreducingthetemperatureatwhich90volume-percentofthedieseloilisdistilledwilldecreasetheformationofparticulatesmeasuring10micronsorlessindiameter.Dieseloilreformulationisexpensive,butitshouldhavehigherpriorityindevelopingcountrieswheredieselconsumptionishigh.
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IncreasingUseofAlternativeFuels.Liquefiedpetroleumgas(LPG)andcompressednaturalgas(CNG)arecost-effectiveandenvironmentallybeneficialoptions,ifdomesticsourcesofnaturalgasandLPGareavailable.Itmayevenbecost-effectiveincountriesthatmustimportCNGandLPG.Themajorcostsarethecostsofliquefaction,regasification,andconstructionofportfacilities.Ifdemandforgascanjustifytheseexpendituresonthebasisoftheirenvironmentalbenefitsandimprovementsinthermalefficiency,CNGwillbemorethancompetitivewithdieselfuel.
End-of-TailpipeControlsandStandards.Twootheroptionsforreducingmotorvehicleemissionsareend-of-tailpipecontrols,suchascatalyticconverters,andemissionstandards.
Catalyticconverters.Twotypesofcatalyticconvertersarecommonlyinuse:oxidationortwo-waycatalysts,whichreduceCOandHCemissions;andoxidation/reductionthree-waycatalysts,whichcontrolNOxemissionsaswell.Formanydevelopingcountries,catalyticconvertersarenotahighpriority.Wherevehicleturnoverisrapid,though,catalyticconvertersshouldbeamongtheoptionsforemissionreductions.Acatalyticconverteraddsabout$600tothecostofamedium-sizedcarandsubstantiallymoreforlargervehicles.
Emissionstandards.ExperienceinOECDcountrieshasshownthatemissionstandards,ifenforced,resultinsignificantreductionsofallpollutants.Standardsmustbeestablishedfornewandin-usevehiclesindevelopingcountries,andeffectiveinspectionandmaintenanceproceduresarenecessary.Establishmentandenforcementofemissionstandardsindevelopingcountriesmaybedifficult,butwithoutthemanygainsfromfuelsreformulationorothermeasurescouldbequicklyeroded.Wherepublictransportiscommon,however,thetasksmaybeeasier.
ImprovingRoadInfrastructure.Urbanroadseverywhereareoftenso
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congestedthattrafficslowstoacrawlandexacerbatesairpollution.Yetimprovingtheroadsindevelopingcountriesisoftendifficultbecausetheirmetropolitanareashaveevolvedinwaysthathamperroadconstruction.Eveniftechnicallyfeasible,suchimprovementsareoftencostlybothintermsofcapitalrequirementsandimplementationtime.Wherepossible,however,thisoptionispreferabletoanyothercapital-intensiveoption.Tominimizecosts,roadimprovementsshouldbestudiedsimultaneouslywithtrafficmanagementoptions.
TrafficManagement.Moreeffectivetrafficmanagementcaneasetrafficcongestionsignificantly.Thelargenumberofvehiclesinservice,inadequateparkingfacilities,undisciplineddrivers,frequentvehiclebreakdowns,andpoorlydesignedtrafficmanagementplanscontributetotrafficproblemsinmostcitiesindevelopingcountries.Restrictingtheuseofmainarteries,encouragingcarpools,providingincentivestousepublictransport,establishingmasstransportsystemswherefeasible(seebelow),improvingpublictransport,levyingataxoncarsenteringcitylimits,andraisingparkingfeescanallreducetheuseofautomobiles.
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Thedisincentives,suchastaxationandincreasedparkingfees,willlikelybepoliticallyunpopularandcanonlybemadepalatablebyamajorpublicrelationsefforttoeducatethecitizenryabouttheharmfulconsequencesoftrafficcongestionandairpollution.Yetwithoutatrafficmanagementstrategy,increasingmotorvehicleusewillnegateanygainsfromotherprograms.
MassTransit.Masstransitsystemsareasociallyvaluablealternativetouseofpersonalvehicles.Masstransitsystems,however,arehighlycapitalintensive,areunlikelytoyieldaprofit,andoftenmustbesubsidizedbythegovernment.Arecentstudyof20masstransitsystemsimplementedindevelopingcountriesinrecentyearsfoundthatnotonewasprofitableinpurelyeconomicterms(Allportandothers1990).However,healthbenefitswerenotfactoredintotheassessment.Whenhealthbenefitsarecounted,thereislikelytobeaneteconomicbenefit,andthiscouldprovideajustificationforstatesubsidies.
ConclusionsandRecommendations
Conclusions
Thestudyendeavorstopresenttheairqualityproblem,healthimpacts,andvalueofbenefitsandoptionsformitigatingthisproblem.Thestudyalsohighlightstheimportanceofdevelopingreliabledataonambientairquality.Inmanydevelopingcountries,thedata-gatheringsystemispoorlyfundedandthedatatendtobeweak.Epidemiologicaldataalsoarenotassembledinascientificmanner.Thus,thestatisticstodrawmeaningfulconclusionsareoftenlacking.
Developingcountrieshavebeguntoestablishairqualitystandardsonlyrecently.Mostofthemdonothaveemissionstandardsfortransportvehiclesorindustries,andmostlackinstitutionstoensurecomplianceeveniftheyhaveestablishedstandards.Finally,
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environmentalregulation,compliance,andenforcementaregenerallyweakandpoorlyfunded.
Theneedtomitigatethehealthimpactsofairpollutionisincontestable,butairqualitymanagementislikelytoreceivelowerprioritythanothersocialprogramsunlessitsvalueisunderstoodbypolicymakers.Thecasestudypresentedinchapter5showsthevaluationofbenefits(andthemagnitudeoftheproblem)andunderlinesboththemethodsofvaluationandtheneedforpolicymakerstogiveairqualitymanagementhighpriority.
Thebestprogramswillensurethatenvironmentalstandards,emissionlevels,regulatorymeasures,andthelegalframeworkforenforcementandcomplianceareestablishedearlyinthedevelopmentcycle.Itisimportanttoensurethateconomicprogressdoesnotimposeunacceptablelevelsofairqualityorenvironmentaldegradation.Selectingthepropermixofoptionsandadoptingacost-,time-,andresults-orientedstrategyisfundamentaltothesuccessofanairqualityenhancementprogram.
Becauseairpollutionistheresultofmanyfactors,identifyingthefactors,selectingthemitigationmeasures,andensuringthattheseareoptimalrequiretechnical
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skillsandknowledgeofahighorder.Forexample,whentheMexicoCityairpollutionprogramwasdevelopedbytheWorldBank,Bankstaffwereassistedbyateamoftechnicalspecialistsandeconomistsfromallovertheworldandapanelwasformedtomonitortheworkofthespecialists.Theresultwasaprogramthathasnowbecomethebasisforsimilarprogramsinothercountries.
Attimes,thecostofenvironmentalmitigationmayfallmostheavilyonthesegmentofthepopulationleastabletobeartheburden.Forexample,areductionofSPMmaydictatethereformulationofdieseloil.Thecostofreformulation,ifpassedontothetransportsector,willincreasetransportationcostsparticularlyforthepoor,themostfrequentusersofbuses,andmaythereforebepoliticallyunpalatable.Insituationssuchasthese,thecostwouldhavetobepassedontothepublicasawhole,whichsuggestsataxsubsidyofsomesortaswellasfundingatconcessionaryrates.
Aneffectivemasstransitsystemcanreduceairpollutionbyreducingtrafficcongestion.Yettoassumeinfrastructuralchangesofthissortcouldbedevelopedinafewyearswouldnotberealistic.Again,ifcostsarenotknownandfinancingisunavailable,masstransitwouldonlyremainaplan.Thesameistrueoffuelsreformulation,retrofittingofvehicles,oranyotheroption.Theaboveexamplesindicatethatthedevelopmentofasuccessfulairpollutionmitigationprogramdependsonbothitstechnicalandeconomicfeasibilityanditsacceptancebythepublic.
Recommendations
TheWorldBankcanhelpdevelopingcountriesimplementfeasibleandcost-effectiveairpollutionprograms.Thisreportsuggeststhatdevelopingcountriesshouldinitiatesuchprograms,commencingwiththefollowingsteps:
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Establishprogramstocollectaccuratedataonambientairquality.
Determinecurrentlevelsofvariouspollutants.
Instituteepidemiologicaldata-gatheringsystems.
Establishambientairqualitystandards.
Projectemissionlevelsintheforeseeablefuture(e.g.,15years).
Withtheassistanceofinstitutionsexpertatmodelingemissionseffectsontheambientair,projectlikelyambientconcentrationsovertheperiodselected.
Ascertainthepotentialbenefitsofreductionsofairpollutants.
Rankpollutantsinorderoftheireffectsonhealthanddevelopcost-andtime-effectiveprogramstoreducethesepollutants.
Acoordinated,comprehensiveprogramtomanageairpollutionisessentialtoensurethecost-effectivenessanddurabilityofmitigationmeasures.Airqualitymanagementprograms(AQMPs)shouldbedevelopedforeachcountryinawaysimilartothatinwhichtheEnergySectorManagementAssistanceProgramme(ESMAP)
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preparesitscountryenergystrategies.Suchacross-sectoralapproachisdesirable,asairqualitymanagementaffectstheeconomybroadly,andacoordinatedprogramcanbedevelopedonlyfromacomprehensivestudy.AcasecanbemadetojustifytheuseofUNDPorotherfundstopreparethesestudies.TheWorldBankshouldremainreadytoprovideassistancethatcountriesmayneedinthepursuitofensuringcleanair.ThetechnicalskillsandfundsrequiredtodevelopAQMPswillbesubstantial,butsowilltheultimatehealthandenvironmentalbenefits.
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1AirPollution:AGrowingProblemInbothindustrializedanddevelopingcountries,inbothurbanandruralareas,airpollutionisaseriousandgrowingproblem.InSouthAfrica'sEasternTransvaalHighveldregion,wherecoal-firedpowerstationsgenerate80percentofthecountry'selectricity,stagnantairmassesallowthebuildupofsulfurparticlesthatcometoearthinacidrain(WorldResourcesInstitute1993:420).Acidrainisresponsiblefordeadlakesinalmost7,000squaremilesofsouthernNorway(WorldResourcesInstitute1993:544)andhasaffected150,000Canadianlakes(WorldResourcesInstitute1993:576).InRiga,Latvia,emissionsfromautomobileswithoutemissioncontroldevicesaccountfor80percentofthecountry'sairpollution(WorldResourcesInstitute1993:554).ThicksmogisbecomingcommonplaceinSantiago,Chile,becauseofuncontrolledindustrialpollutionandvehicleemissions.TheamountsofsulfurdioxideintheatmosphereabovenineofIndia'stenmajorcitiesexceednationalstandards,andparticulatematterintheairabovemanyurbanregionsinIndiaexceedstheamountsfoundintheairabovecomparableregionsinNorthAmericaandEurope(WorldResourcesInstitute1993:460).
Airpollution,particularlyinurbanareas,iscausedprimarilybyproductionofelectricity,vehicularemissions,andindustrialactivities.Naturalevents,likeeruptionsofvolcanoesandforestfires,alsosendhugeamountsofcertainpollutantsintotheatmosphere.TheJune1991eruptionofMountPinatubointhePhilippines,forexample,isestimatedtohavedischarged20milliontonsofsulfateaerosolsintotheupperatmosphere,generatingconcernthatthisonslaughtmaydepletetheprotectivelayerofozoneabovethemidlatitudinalareasoftheearth(Mock1993:306307).Urbanpollution,however,islargely
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anthropogenic,theresultofactivitiessuchaspassengerandfreighttransportationandtheproductionoffood,fiber,rawmaterials,andmanufacturedgoods.
Robustindustrialactivityistheeconomicbasisofallotheractivities,includingeducationandmedicalcare.Economicsuccess,however,shouldnotcomeatthecostofunacceptablelevelsofairpollution.Ifproperlyplanned,economicdevelopmentneednotresultinenvironmentaldamage.Conversely,environmentalconcernsneednotstifledevelopment.Theobjectiveofeconomicdevelopmentistoprovidethegoodsandservicesdeemeddesirabletoimprovethequalityofhumanexistence.Economic
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developmentcanbemeasured,whereasmeasurementsofthequalitiesthatcharacterizeahealthyenvironmentarestillbeingdebated.Whateverthedifficultiesofmeasurement,however,thegoalmustbeanetbenefit.
Airpollutionisnotsimplyafunctionoftheamountofpollutantsreleasedintotheatmosphere.Topography,weatherconditions,timeofday,andthekindsofpollutantsandtheinteractionsamongthemallhelptodeterminepollutionlevels.MexicoCity,forexample,liesinavalleyamonghighmountains;frequentthermalinversionstrappollutantsinthevalley(Satterthwaite1992).Ingeneral,thevolumeoftraffic,thequalityoffuel,orthemechanicaldesignofindustriesandvehiclesmaynotbesignificant,takenindividually,butaremajorcontributingfactors.Thereareclearlinkagesamongthemthatneedtobeunderstoodinordertodevelopcost-effectivemanagementofairpollution.
Theadversehealtheffectsofvariousairpollutantshavebeendocumentedinnumerousstudies.Highconcentrationsofairpollutantsinmanydevelopingcountriesleadtoincreasedillness,particularlyamongindividualssufferingfromrespiratoryproblems,andcauseprematuredeathamongtheelderly(Romieu1992).Theairpollutantsofgreatestconcernarecarbonmonoxide,hydrocarbons,sulfuroxides,nitrogenoxides,suspendedparticulatematter,lead,andsecondarypollutants,particularlyozone.Theeliminationofleadasanadditivetogasolinehashighpriority,sinceitcanhaveharmfuleffectsonthehumannervoussystem,particularlythatofchildren.Table1.1showslead'shightoxicitycomparedwithotherairpollutants.Itisestimated,forexample,thatchildrenintheBangkokmetropolitanarealoseanaverageof4IQpointsbythetimetheyreachtheageofseven,and29percentofthemhaveunhealthyamountsofleadintheirblood.Thereisacorrelationbetweenthelevelofleadingasolineandblood-leadlevels,andintheUnitedStatesandJapan,blood-lead
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levelshavefallenonaveragebytwo-thirdssinceleadadditivesingasolinewerefirstreducedandthenprohibited(WorldBank1992:53).
Exposuretosuspendedparticulatematter(SPM)isanequallyseriousrisktohealth.InhalableSPM,particularlyparticleslessthan10micronsinsize,canpassthroughthenaturalprotectivemechanismofthehumanrespiratorysystem.Thesmallestparticulates(2micronsorless)arecreatedprimarilybythecombustionofpetroleumfuels.TheWorldBankestimatesthatreducingSPMtosafelevelscouldreduceprematuredeathsby300,000to700,000ayearindevelopingcountries(WorldBank1992:52).
Theconcentrationofpollutantsinambientairincreaseswithratesofurbanizationandenergyuse.Airpollutioninsomeofthenewlyindustrializeddevelopingcountriesisworsethanintheindustrializedcountries.Thisisbecauseindustriesindevelopingcountriesoftenuseoutdatedtechnologyandbecausemostvehiclestherelackemissioncontrols.Strategiesforairqualityprotectionshouldthereforebeinplaceascountriesdevelop.Figure1.1illustratestheconsequencesofapathy.Theareabetweenthesolidanddottedlinesrepresentstheconcentrationofairpollutantsthatcouldhavebeenavoidedifairpollutioncontrolmeasureshadbeenimplementedinatimelymanner.
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Althoughtheeconomiesofmanydevelopingcountriesaregrowing,thisgrowthneednotbefollowedbyadeclineinairquality.Inmanydevelopedcountries,emissioncontroldeviceshavebeguntocauseadeclineinseverepollutantlevels;similardeclinesinpollutantlevelscanbeeffectedinthedevelopingcountriesaswell.
Figure1.1RelationshipBetweenLevelofDevelopmentandAirQuality
Source:UNEPandWHO(1992).
Airpollutionmanagementprogramsareintendedtokeepairpollutantsbelowthelevelsthatwoulddamagetheenvironmentorharmthehealthofhumans.Iftheambientconcentrationofapollutantiswellbelowpermissiblelevels,theneedtocontrolemissionsofthepollutantmaynotbeurgentunlessepidemiologicaldatastronglyindicateotherwise.Anall-encompassingairpollutionmanagementprogramshouldincludeclearlydefinedobjectivesthatwouldmeetambientairqualitystandards,theidentificationofallairpollutantsandtheirsources,thelevelsofpollutantsintheambientair,andthetypesofpollutantsthatareatriskofexceedingpermissiblelevels.
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Unfortunately,dataoftherequiredqualityareseldomfoundindevelopingcountries,whichoftendecideonthebasisofpoordatathatpollutionisnotaproblem.Developingascientificdatabaseandestablishingpermissiblepollutantlevelscouldtakethreetofiveyearsinmostdevelopingcountries.Theremay,however,besomepollutantsthatarealreadyatpotentiallydangerouslevels.Thus,projectstoreduceconcentrationsofsuchpollutantsshouldbestartedassoonaspossibleandneednotawaitthedevelopmentofacompletescientificdatabase.
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Thecollectionofascientificdatabase,establishmentofrealistictargets,anddevelopmentofacomprehensiveprogramrequireastronginstitutionalandlegalframework.Implementatingaprogramwillrequirethemonitoringofactivitiesinallsectorsoftheeconomytoensurethatfacilitieswithanti-pollutiondevicesaredesigned,built,andoperatedcorrectly.
Table1.1ApproximateToxicityWeightingFactorsforSelectedPollutantsPollutant RelativeweightLead 85NOx 4.7PM10 2.3VOCs 1.8SOx 1.4Dust 0.9CO 0.04
Note:PM10=particulatematterof10micronsorlessinsize.VOCs=Volatileorganiccompounds.Source:1992WorldBankdata.
Thegovernmentsofmanydevelopingcountriesoftencomplainaboutthestringentindustrialemissionstandardsstipulatedbymostinternationalagencies,includingtheWorldBank,asaconditionforprojectassistanceandfinancing.Thecostofpollutionabatementdeviceshassometimespreventedtheimplementationofotherwiseeconomicallyrobustprojects.Developingcountriesoftenarguethatthetotalvolumeofaparticularpollutantemittedeitheronacountrywideorregionalbasisisfarlowerthaninthedevelopedcountriesandthatstringentstandardsshouldbeappliedonlywhenthetotalvolumeofaparticularpollutantemittedfromallsourceswillresultinambientconcentrationsexceedingpermissiblelevels.
Ineffect,thesecountriesarearguingfortheadoptionofecologicallybasedemissionstandardsforindustrialplants.Establishingecologicallybasedemissionstandardspresupposesacceptanceoftheconceptofcriticalpollutantloadsbycalculatingtheseloadsforeachcountry.Forlarge
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pollutantloadsbycalculatingtheseloadsforeachcountry.Forlargecountries,criticalpollutantloadsmighthavetobecalculatedonanarea-by-areabasis.Thisimpliesthatdevelopingcountriescouldadoptlessstringentstandardsthanindustrializedcountriesunlessepidemiologicaldataindicatedthataparticularpollutantwasalreadycausinghealthproblems.Thisconceptmustbeappliedwithcaution,however.Ifacountryisindustrializingrapidly,morestringentstandardsmustbeadoptedinanticipationofhigheremissions.
Pursuingeconomicdevelopmentwithoutregardtoitsenvironmentalconsequencesisunacceptable.Itislesscostlytomakeincrementalinvestmentsinstate-of-the-arttechnologynowtocontrolpollutionthantomakefurtherinvestmentslater,if
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thoseinvestmentsarelikelytobeneededinthenot-too-distantfuture.However,thecostsoftheseinvestmentsmustbereasonable,andthelikelyimpactofthisspendingonothersectorsmustbetakenintoaccount.Medicalfacilitiesandservices,food,education,transportation,andothersocialservicesneedtobeprovidedaswellascleanair.Abalancemustbestruckbetweenwhatisdesirableandwhatisachievable.Crucialtothedevelopmentandimplementationofanyprojectistheabilitytofinanceit.Financingisunlikelytobeavailablefrominternationalagenciesunlessenvironmentalmitigationmeasuresarebuiltintotheproject.Environmentalimpactassessments,whicharenowaprerequisiteforWorldBankprojectappraisal,ensurethatnecessarycontrolmeasureswillbeincludedinprojects.
Technology-andpolicy-basedoptionsneedtobeidentifiedearlyinthecycle.Discussionofthetechnologicaloptionswillbeintroductory,sinceadetailedreviewwouldrequiretheidentificationofalltheavailabletechnologies,thefactorsthatmustbetakenintoaccountintheestimationofcapitalrequirements,andadiscussionoftheproblemsofcost-benefitanalysis.
Whenthecostsofinvestinginairpollutionprogramsarehighandsuchinvestmentscoulddivertresourcesfromotherusefulandpopularprograms,investmentsthatcanbejustifiedineconomicandfinancialtermsunderstoodbypolicymakersaremorelikelytowinapproval.Inthedevelopingcountriesthequestionthatmustbeansweredbypolicymakersandinternationalagenciesisnotwhetheraprogramhasmeritbutwhetheritiscrucialforhumanwelfare.Suchproblemsaschildmalnutrition,polluteddrinkingwater,andhighlevelsofunemploymentwillordinarilytakeprecedenceoverprogramstocombatairpollution.Nevertheless,thebenefitsofairqualityenhancementareveryreal.Aswillbeshowninthisreport,theycanbemeasuredandshouldthereforereceivehighpriority.
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2HealthandEnvironmentalEffectsofMajorPollutants,PartI:CarbonMonoxide,Hydrocarbons,OxidesofNitrogen,SuspendedParticulateMatter,andLeadThischapterandtheonethatfollowsdiscussthepotentialhealthandenvironmentaleffectsofmajorairpollutants.Theseeffectsarediscussedtodemonstratetheneedfortheirreduction,particularlyinhigh-population-densityareasandmajorcities.Thefindingsfromseveralstudies,mainlyfromtheindustrializedcountries,arepresented,inasmuchasverylittlemeaningfulinvestigativeworkhasbeendoneonairpollutioninthedevelopingcountries.Nonetheless,thelessonsofthestudiesarehighlyrelevanttodevelopingcountries,especiallybecausetheyarenowpassingthroughsomeofthesamestagesofgrowththattheindustrialcountrieshavetraversedpreviously.
CarbonMonoxide
Effects
Inhalationofcarbonmonoxide(CO)byhumanbeingshasdetrimentaleffectsonhealth.TheamountofharmdependsontheconcentrationofCOandthedurationofexposureandiscausedbythespecialaffinityofhemoglobininthebloodforcarbonmonoxideabout240timesthatofitsaffinityforoxygen(Romieu1992).Carbonmonoxideformsastrongcoordinatebondwiththeironatomoftheprotohaemcomplexinhemoglobintoproducecarboxyhemoglobin(COHb).COHb,inturn,reducestheamountofavailableoxygenneededinthebloodtocarryoutnormalbodilyactivities.Hence,morebloodneedstobepumpedtodeliverthesameamountofoxygen,resultingin
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strainontheheart.COHblevelsofapproximately1.2to1.5percentarefoundinanormalpopulation.Intraffic-congestedareas,however,elevatedconcentrationsofCO(20to30mg/m3,or17to26ppm)arefoundintheambientair,andthiscanleadtoequilibriumCOHbbloodlevelsof3percent,comparabletothe3to4percentCOHbfoundincigarettesmokers(Romieu1992).Table2.1givestheexpectedlevelsofCOHbinthebloodatdifferentconcentrationsofCO.
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Table2.1PredictedCOHbBloodConcentrationsforSubjectsEngagedinDifferentTypesofWork
COconcentration PredictedCOHblevel(%)forthoseengagedinppm mg/m3 Exposuretime Sedentarywork Lightwork Heavywork100 115 15minutes 1.2 2.0 2.850 57 30minutes 1.1 1.9 2.625 29 1hour 1.1 1.7 2.210 11.5 8hours 1.5 1.7 1.7
Note:ppm=partspermillion;mg/m3=milligramspercubicmeterSource:Romieu(1992).
Ingeneral,thosewhoexerciseheavilyoutdoorsorworkoutdoorsaremorepronetosuffertheeffectsofelevatedCO.TheclassicsymptomsofCOpoisoningarerevealedatlevelsabove10percentCOHb.Betweenthelevelsof10and30percent,thesesymptomsareheadacheanddizziness.Atlevelsabove30percent,thesymptomsaresevereheadache,cardiovasculareffects,andmalaise.Thechancesofcomaanddeathareheightenedwhenthelevelexceeds40percent(Romieu1992).ThesefindingsseemtobeinaccordwiththesignsandsymptomsofCOHbshowninTable2.2(Watkins1991).Otherstudies,however,indicatethatdrowsiness,impairedperceptionandthought,andslowedreflexesoccuratlevelsof5to10percent(Adams1990).AccordingtoWatkins(1991),theconcentrationsinTable2.2aremuchhigherthanthoseusuallyexperiencedbyroadusersorothersexposedtovehicleexhaustfumes.However,otherstudiesindicatethatparkingattendantsandtrafficpoliceshowincreasedratesofchronicrespiratoryandcardiacdisorderslinkedtoCOexposure(Adams1990).ThereisnodoubtthatCOisfatalwheninhaledatveryhighconcentrations,andheartdiseasepatients,pregnantwomen,infants,seniorcitizens,andthoseespeciallysusceptibletorespiratoryproblemsmayexhibitsymptomsofCOpoisoningatlowerpercentagesofCOHbthanindicatedinTable2.2.Concentrationshigherthan9ppm,forexample,mayincreasetheprobabilityofanginaattacksfortheestimated5to7millionpeople,aprevalencerateof3percent,intheUnitedStateswhoareatrisk(Krupnik
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prevalencerateof3percent,intheUnitedStateswhoareatrisk(Krupnik1991:13).
AlthoughstudieshavebeenconductedtodeterminethehealtheffectsofCOatvariousambientlevels,thedataneededtodeterminedose-responsefunctionsaccuratelyhavenotbeencollected.VariousempiricalequationshavebeenproposedrelatingconcentrationsofCOinambientairtotheformationofCOHblevelsinblood.Mostrelationshipsseemtobelinear,atleastinitially,andthenreachanequilibriumconcentrationofCOHbafterexposureoflongduration(seeFigure2.1).AccordingtotheWHO(1979:90),analyzingCOlevelsinairandCOHblevelsinbloodshouldnotberegardedasalternativemethodsofmonitoring,sinceitisnoteasytoestimatetherelationshipbetweentheCOlevelinambientairandCOHblevelinbloodbecausethe
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concentrationofCOanddurationofexposureareinfluencedbycomplexfactorsthatis,weatherconditions,trafficdensity,ageandstateofrepairofthevehiclefleet,thetypesofemissioncontrolequipmentandenforcement,highwaydesign,timeofday,andlevelofventilationwillallaffecttheconcentrationofambientCOatanyparticularlocationandthereforethecorrespondinglevelsofCOHb.Congestedstreetsandconfinedspacessuchastunnelsandparkinggarages(particularlythosewithinadequateventilation)arelikelysitesforhighconcentrationsofCO,whereaswidestreetswithfree-flowingtrafficareunlikelytohaveunsafeCOaccumulations.Dispersionfactorsmayalsoplayaroleindiscrepanciesinthedatagatheredatmonitoringstations.NumerousstudieshaveindicatedthatthelevelsofCOandotherairpollutantsinsidemotorvehiclesandalongroadsidesaretypicallyhigherthanthelevelsrecordedsimultaneouslyatfixed-sitemonitors.Thissuggeststhatpeopleinmotorvehiclesareatmostrisktoairpollutants,followedbypedestriansandstreetvendors,andthenbythegeneralurbanpopulation,sincelevelsofmotorvehiclepollutantsdeclinewithincreasingdistancefromroads(Flachsbart1992).
Table2.2SignsandSymptomsofIncreasingCOHbLevelsinanAverageAdultCOHb(%)
Signsandsymptoms
010 None1020 Tightnessacrosstheforehead,possibleslightheadache,dilationofthe
cutaneousbloodvessel2030 Headacheandthrobbinginthetemples3040 Severeheadache,weakness,dizziness,dimnessofvision,nausea,
vomitingandcollapse4050 Sameasabove,greaterpossibilityofcollapse,syncope(fainting)and
increasedpulseandrespiratoryrates5060 Syncope,increasedpulserate,coma,intermittentconvulsions,and
Cheyne-Stokesrespiration6070 Coma,intermittentconvulsions,depressedheartactionandrespiratory
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rate,andpossibledeath7080 Weakpulse,slowrespiration,respiratoryfailureanddeathwithinafew
hours8090 Deathinlessthananhour90+ Deathwithinafewminutes
Source:Watkins(1991).
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Figure2.1UptakeofCObyBlood,aDose-ResponseCurve
Note:ThistypicalCOdose-responsecurvehasbeenderivedfromobservationsmadebyForbesandothers(1945).ActualCOHblevelinanyindividualmayvaryconsiderablyfromthatpredictedinthisfigure,
dependingonprevailingconditionsanddurationofexposure.Source:WHO(1979:91).
Typically,ambientCOstandardsareaveragedover8hours.Thisisbecauseittakesapproximately4to12hoursforCOHblevelstoreachequilibriumwithambientCOlevels(UNEPandWHO1988).TheUnitedStatesandWHOhavestringentCOstandards(9ppmor10mg/m3)foran8-hourperiod.Theseconcentrationsmayseemtoostringent,sincetheexpectedcorrespondingCOHblevel(basedonamodelbyCoburnandothers1965)appearstobeapproximately1.5percentforsubjectsatrestand1.7percentforthoseengagedinheavyphysicalwork(WHO1979:119),andaccordingtosomestudies
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wouldhavenonoticeableeffectonthegeneralpopulation.Itshouldbeborneinmind,however,thattheseguidelinesaredesignednotonlytogivethegeneralpopulationanadequatemarginofsafetybutalsotoprotectthosewhoareparticularlysusceptible.AstudybytheGlobalEnvironmentalMonitoringSystem(GEMS),usingarelativelysmallsampleof20cities(predominantlyinindustrialcountries),foundthatapproximatelyhalfwereviolatingtheWHO8-hourguideline(UNEPandWHO1988).
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ManyurbancitiesindevelopingcountriesprobablyexceedtheWHOCOguidelineaswell,althoughthedataneededtoprovethisdonotexist.
Sources
PetroleumfuelsusedinmotorvehiclesarethelargestcontributorsofCOemissions(seeBox2.1).Forexample,between1940and1970theU.S.motorvehiclefleetincreasedrapidly.Carbonmonoxideemissionsduringthesameperiodrosefrom73milliontonstoapproximately100milliontons(WHO1979:23).ThisincreaseinCOemissionsinparallelwiththeincreaseinnumberofvehiclesmayhaveresultedprimarilyfromlackofstringentemissioncontrols.Evenwithemissioncontrolsinplace,thetransportsectorremainsthemajorsourceofCOemissionscausedbyanthropogenicactivities.Approximately90percentoftheCOintheurbanenvironmentsofmanycountriesisattributedtomobilesources(Romieu1992).COcanalsoaccumulateindoorsinacuteorfataldosesfromtheuseofcoal,gas,oroilforcookingorinheatingappliancesthataremaladjustedandinadequatelyventedtooutsideair.
Box2.1ChemicalNatureofCarbonMonoxide
Carbonmonoxide(CO)isacolorless,odorless,tastelessgasthatisslightlylessdensethanair.Incompletecombustionofcarbon-containingfuelsproducescarbonmonoxide,andtheprincipalsourceisemissionsfrommotorvehicles.Intheory,allthecarbonatomsinfuelareconvertedtocarbondioxide(CO2)ifenoughoxygenispresentintheair/fuelmixtureinthecarburetorofamotorvehicle:
Ifthefuelmixtureistoo''rich"thatis,containstoomuch
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fuelandtoolittleairconsiderableamountsofCOwillbeformed:
Theoretically,theCOwillbeconvertedtoCO2intheatmosphere:
Butthisconversionisnormallyquiteslow,andCOcontinuestobeCOfor0.2to0.3yearsorfortwoorthreemonths.
Note:(l)=liquidphase;(g)=gasphase.
Source:Mastersonandothers(1985:534).
Table2.3summarizestheoutlookforworldwideCOemissionsfortheperiod1980to2005.Theseestimatesassumemoderateeconomicgrowthgloballyandrisingoilprices.Basedontheseestimates,totalworldwideCOemissionsareexpectedtobeonlyslightlyhigherin2005thantheywerein1980.The57percentprojecteddeclineinCOemissionsfromtheOECDtransportsectorfrom1980to2005istheprincipalfactorlimitingtheoverallincrease.ThetransportsectorwillremainthemajorsourceofCOemissions,however,especiallyintheOECDcountries.COemissionsinboththecentrallyplannedeconomies(CPEs)andthedevelopingcountriesarealsoontherise.As
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Table2.3SummaryofCOEmissionsOutlook,19802005Risingoilpricecase(103metrictonsofCOperyear)
Region 1980 1986 1995 2005OECDsummaryElectricitygeneration 1243(1%) 1346(1%) 1721(2%) 2136(1%)Industry 1170(1%) 1024(1%) 1000(1%) 1150(1%)Residential/commercial 13827(8%) 12317(9%) 9860(9%) 8487(11%)Transport 152427(90%) 127508(89%) 99198(88%) 64783(84%)Transformation 565(0%) 507(0%) 475(0%) 382(0%)Total 169232(100%)142702(100%) 112254(100%) 76938(100%)CPEsummaryElectricitygeneration 897(2%) 1042(2%) 1302(2%) 1863(2%)Industry 1247(3%) 1294(2%) 1484(2%) 1864(2%)Residential/Commercial 31944(64%) 31968(60%) 32104(51%) 33230(42%)Transport 15429(31%) 18622(35%) 27951(44%) 40960(52%)Transformation 92(0%) 350(1%) 452(1%) 658(1%)Total 49609(100%) 53276(100%) 63293(100%) 78575(100%)DevelopingcountrysummaryElectricitygeneration 203(0%) 332(0%) 568(0%) 1082(1%)Industry 341(0%) 424(0%) 562(0%) 769(0%)Residential/commercial 99711(68%) 86046(59%) 93468(53%) 96741(45%)Transport 46440(32%) 58589(40%) 80024(46%) 11571(54%)Transformation 111(0%) 165(0%) 273(0%) 400(0%)Total 146806(100%)145556(100%) 174895(100%) 21463(100%)WorldsummaryElectricitygeneral 2343(0%) 2720(1%) 3591(1%) 5081(1%)Industry 2748(1%) 2742(1%) 3045(1%) 3783(1%)Residential/commercial 145483(40%) 130331(38%) 135432(39%) 138458(37%)Transport 214296(59%) 204719(60%) 207173(59%) 220913(60%)Transformation 768(0%) 1022(0%) 1200(0%) 1439(0%)TOTAL 365648(100%)341534(100%) 350441(100%) 369674(100%)Note:Duetorounding,somepercentagesmaynotaddupto100.Source:OECD/IEA(1991:147-48).
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thevehicularpopulationsofCPEsanddevelopingcountriesincrease,theshareofworldCOemissionsfromOECDcountriesisexpectedtodeclinefromthe46percentof1980to21percentin2005,whilethedevelopingcountries'shareisexpectedtorisefrom40percentto58percentandtheCPEsharefrom14percentto21percent.Thesechangesareprimarilyattributabletodifferencesinemissioncontrolpoliciesinthethreegroups.SimilardifferencesaffectednationalemissionsofCOduringthe1970s.COemissionsfrommotorvehiclesroseinFinland,France,Sweden,andSwitzerlandintheearly1970s,andtheUnitedKingdomsawanincreaseinCOemissionsovertheentiredecade.Meanwhile,theUnitedStatesandCanadaevidencedadeclineinCOemissionsresultingfromtheearlycreationandenforcementofstringentemissionstandards(Holdgateandothers1982:520).
Inlinewiththeobservationthatdevelopmentneednotworsenenvironmentalquality,itisworthnotingthatanincreaseinvehicledensitydoesnotnecessarilyleadtoanincreaseinCOemissionswhenemissionstandardsandenforcementofemissioncontrolsareeffective.Astudydonein1980tomeasureCOconcentrationsinsidevehiclesonasuburbanhighwayinCaliforniafoundthataverageCOconcentrationswere51percenthigherthanwhenvehiclesonthehighwaywereresurveyedin1991bythesameresearchersusingasimilarmethodology.Theresearchersattributedthedeclinetothereplacementoftheoldervehiclefleetwithnewermodelshavingloweremissionfactors,anditwasparticularlysignificantthatthedeclinewassosubstantialeventhoughvehicledensityonthehighwayhadincreasedby17percentduringthesameperiod(Flachsbart1992).
Unfortunately,thevehicleturnoverrateindevelopingcountriesislow,andthevehiclesnowontheroadaregenerallyolderandhavenopollutioncontroldevices.Undersuchcircumstances,anincreaseinvehicledensityisboundtoincreasetheconcentrationofambientCO.
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Sincevehicleinspectionandmaintenanceprogramsarenotwelldevelopedindevelopingcountries,itisalsomorelikelythatdangerousorevenlethalconcentrationsofCOmayaccumulateinsidemotorvehiclesbecauseoffracturesinexhaustsystemsorothermechanicaldefects.Furthermore,thestop-and-gotrafficthatisthenorminurbancentersindevelopingcountriesmayaggravateexposuretoCOemissions,whicharehighestwhenanengineidlesanddecreasewithincreasingenginespeed(seeBox2.2).
Hydrocarbons
ChemicalNatureandEffects
Hydrocarbons(HCs)areorganiccompoundsconsistingmainlyofcarbonandhydrogen.Straight-chaincompoundsareknownasaliphatics;thosewithacyclicstructureareknownasaromatics.Hydrocarbonsareprecursorstoozoneformation.Aromatics(particularlybenzene,whichimprovestheoctanevalueofgasoline)alsopromotetheformationofnitrogenoxides.Whenhydrocarbonsinteractwithnitrogenoxidesinthepresenceofsunlight,ozoneistheresult.Athighconcentrations(100to
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Box2.2TheTrafficPoliceofJaipur,India
Adarkzoneofblacksmokehangsabovetheground,acommonsightinJaipurCityduringthelateeveningandearlymorninghours.Thesmokehasbeenattributedtoanincreasingrateofvehicularpollution.ArandomcheckoftheambientairqualityofJaipurCitybytheDepartmentofEnvironmentinRajasthanrevealedthattheamountsoflead,carbonmonoxide(CO),sulfurdioxide(SO2),nitrogenoxides(NOx),andsuspendedparticulatematter(SPM)overa24-hourperiodwereabovethelimitsconsideredacceptablebytheWorldHealthOrganization.Itisestimatedthat90percentofthepollutioniscausedbyvehicularemissions.
Inordertoassesstheimpactofmotorvehicleemissionsonhumanbeings,astudywasconductedusingonehundredtrafficpoliceconstables.Theconstablesareexposedcontinuouslyforperiodsof6hoursormoretoemissionsfromvehiclesidlingatintersectionswithelevatedconcentrationsofCOandHC.SO2emissionsattheseintersectionsarealsosubstantial.
Thestudyrevealedthat94percentoftheconstablessufferedfromsomesortofphysicaldisorder.Eyeirritation,itchingskin,nasalcongestion,fatigue,coughs,lossofappetite,"burning"sensations,and"tenderness"intheabdomenwerecommoncomplaints.Respiratorydifficultiesanddigestiveproblemswerealsonumerous.Themoststartlingrevelationwasthehighincidence(55percent)oftuberculosisamongconstablesbetween20and30yearsold.
Whatmakesfindingsliketheseparticularlydisturbingis
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thatthemajorityofIndia'surbanpoorlivebytheroadside,andtrafficintersectionsaretheplaygroundsofpoorchildren.
Source:Sinha(1993).
1,000timesthelevelsinambientair),hydrocarbonscauseminorirritationofmucosaandhaveageneralnarcoticeffect.BenzeneisclassifiedbytheU.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgency(EPA)asahumancarcinogenbecauseofitslinktoadultleukemia.Concentrationsofbenzeneshouldbekepttomuchlessthan1ppm.Theothervolatilearomatichydrocarbonswithmethylsidechainsarenotconsideredtobecarcinogenicormutagenic.Formaldehydeisashort-termrespiratoryandskinirritantandmaybeacarcinogen.Individualvariabilityinsusceptibilitytotheharmfuleffectsofformaldehydeislarge,butmanypeopleinworksituationsshowsensitivitywhenexposedto500to3,000microgramsformaldehyde/m3.Thethresholdlevelisreportedtobeaslowas12micrograms.Astudyontheeffectsofformaldehydefoundthat120microgramsofformaldehyde/m3wasthethresholdlevelforhumanperceptionofitsodorandforirritationofeyes,nose,andthroat,whereas600microgramscausedlachrymation(tearing)and1,200microgramscausedrhinorrhoea(runnynose)anddrythroat(Suessandothers1985:97101).
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SourcesofHydrocarbons
Coalandpetroleumarethetwolargestorganicsourcesofaromaticcompounds.Petroleumisthemainsourceofbenzene,toluene,andxyleneusedinthechemicalindustryandintheproductionofhigh-octanegasoline.TheU.S.decisiontoeliminateleadedgasolinegraduallyatthebeginningofthe1980sandcompetitionforhigheroctanelevels(above91)resultedinaphenomenalincreaseinthelevelsofbenzeneandaromaticsingasolinebetween1979and1989.Figure2.2depictstheincrease.
Figure2.2TheDramaticRiseofAromaticsinU.S.GasolinePool,197989
Source:HyOx,Inc.,ofFallbrook,California,inOxy-FuelNews(1990).
Anywherefrom1to5percentofthecontentofmarketedgasolineconsistsofbenzene.Asgasolineismovedfromtherefinerytothemarketplace,benzeneisemittedintotheatmosphereatbulkgasolineterminals,depots,andservicestationsandfromtanktrucks.Itisalsoemittedwhengasolineispumpedintomotorvehicles(AlcoholOutlook1990).Thelargestsourceofatmosphericbenzene,however,ismotorvehicles.TheEPAstatesthat70.2percentofallbenzeneemissionscomefromvehicles.Ofthatfigure,70percentcomesfrom
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motorvehicleexhaustpipesand14percentfromevaporation(Sinhaandothers1990).
Straight-chainoraliphatichydrocarbons,suchasaldehydes,areemittedbybothgasoline-anddiesel-fueledvehicles.Gasolineproducesfromabout0.6to2.3g/laldehydes,anddieseloil1to2g/l.Some50to70percentofallmotorvehicleemissionsareformaldehyde.Table2.4showsthecontributionoftheroadtransportsectortototalhydrocarbonemissionsin14cities.ExceptinOsakaandSeoul,theycontributedmorethan50percent.
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Table2.4ContributionofRoadTransportSectortoTotalHCEmissionsinSelectedCities
Region Year %HCMexicoCity 1987 89SãoPaulo 1981 83
1987 76Ankara 1980 73Manila 1987 82KualaLumpur 1987 95Seoul 1983 40Athens 1976 81aGothenburg 1980 89aLondon 1978 94LosAngeles 1976 61a
1982 50Munich 1974/75 96Osaka 1982 17Phoenix 1986 64aPercentsharesapplytoalltransport.Motorvehiclesaccountfor75to95percentofthetransportshare.Source:AdaptedfromWorldResourcesInstitute(1992:196).
OxidesofNitrogen
Effects
GenerallyexpressedasNOx,oxidesofnitrogenincludeNO(nitrogenoxide),N2O(nitrousoxide),andNO2(nitrogendioxide)(seeBox2.3).Nitrogenoxidesintheatmospherereducevisibility,helptoformacidaerosols,contributetoglobalwarming,andactascatalystsinthedecompositionofozoneintheupperatmosphere.Nitrogenoxidesalsocanformozonethroughinteractionwithhydrocarbonsinthepresenceofsunlight.Nitrogendioxideisarespiratoryirritantthatalsocausesirreversiblelungdamagetopersonsexposedtoitforlongperiodsof
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time.Otherilleffectsincludechesttightness,burningoftheeyes,andheadaches.Peoplewithasthmaareparticularlyvulnerabletotheseeffectsandtobronchitis.RecurrentexposuretohighconcentrationsofNO2ismoredamagingthanconstantexposuretolower-levelconcentrations.
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Box2.3ChemicalNatureofNitrogenOxides
Oxidesofnitrogenareproducedduringtheburningoffuelsinaninternalcombustionengine.Nitrogenoxideiscreatedfirst;itthencombineswithmoreoxygentoformnitrogendioxide.Noticeableamountsofnitrogenoxideareproducedbythefollowingreaction:
Inurbanair,NOisconvertedtoNO2:
OxidesofnitrogenoftencontributetothegenerationofacidrainthereactionofNO2withwatervaporinairformsnitricacid(HNO3):
AcidrainfallinthewesternUnitedStatesisattributedmainlytonitricacid.
Note:(g)=gasphase;(l)=liquidphase;(aq)=aqueousphase.
Source:Mastersonandothers(1985:515-46).
Sources
Bacterialactioninthesoil,volcaniceruptions,andlightningarethemajorsourcesofatmosphericNOx.Althoughsuchnaturalphenomenageneratemuchlargeramountsofoxidesofnitrogenthananthropogenicsources,naturalemissionsofNOxarenotsignificantintermsofharmtotheenvironmentbecausetheycomefromsourcesallovertheglobeandgenerallyproducenegligibleconcentrationsinthe
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air.Therelativelyminorroleofnaturalsourcescanbeseeninthefactthatnaturalconcentrationsofnitrogendioxideabovelandareasrangefrom0.4to9.4microgramspercubicmeter,whereasaverageannualmeanconcentrationsinurbanareasworldwidearesome20to90microgramspercubicmeter(WorldBank1988:218).
Theprincipalsourceofnitrogenoxidecreatedbyhumanactivityistheinternalcombustionengine,althoughthecombustionoffossilfuelsinhomesisalsoasource.Oxidesofnitrogenalsoareemittedbyplantsmanufacturingexplosives,fertilizer,andglass;inironorepreparationplants(sinteringandpelletizing);andatpetroleumrefineriesandelectricpowerstationsthatburnfossilfuels.
Table2.5summarizesexpectedNOxemissionsintheworldfortheperiod1980to2005.ThetransportsectorwillcontributethemajorshareofNOxemissions,withgenerationofelectricityaclosesecond.InbothdevelopingandOECDcountriesthetransportsectorcontributesthelargestshareofNOxemissions,whereasthegenerationofelectricityyieldsthemostNOxemissionsinCPEs.Itisestimatedthatwhereastransport-relatedNOxemissionsfromOECDcountrieswilldeclinefrom63percentto40percent,thedevelopingcountries'sharewillincreasefrom19percentto35percentandtheCPEs'sharewillrisefrom18percentto24percentoverthisperiod.
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Table2.5SummaryofNOxEmissionsOutlook,19802005BilliongramsofNOx
Region 1980 1986 1995 2005OECDsummaryTransport 20352(50%) 19828(52%) 19366(54%) 18244(52%)Residential/commercial 2082(5%) 1977(5%) 1915(5%) 1891(5%)Industry 5304(13%) 4040(11%) 3545(10%) 3288(9%)Electricitygeneration 11566(28%) 10623(28%) 9994(28%) 10617(30%)Othertransformation 1706(4%) 1415(4%) 1063(3%) 782(2%)
Total 41010(100%) 37883(100%) 35883(100%) 34822(100%)CPEsummaryTransport 5644(24%) 6231(24%) 8959(27%) 11056(25%)Residential/commercial 2666(11%) 2920(11%) 3308(10%) 3774(9%)Industry 4606(20%) 4726(18%) 5347(16%) 6794(15%)Electricitygeneration 9790(42%) 11023(42%) 13615(41%) 19381(44%)Othertransformation 561(4%) 1593(6%) 2130(6%) 3314(7%)
Total 23267(100%) 26493(100%) 33359(100%) 44319(100%)DevelopingcountrysummaryTransport 6196(48%) 7750(48%) 11853(49%) 16075(45%)Residential/commercial 2236(17%) 2106(13%) 2615(11%) 3088(9%)Industry 1536(12%) 1766(11%) 2365(10%) 3194(9%)Electricitygeneration 2271(18%) 3633(23%) 6071(25%) 11455(32%)Othertransformation 644(5%) 852(5%) 1349(6%) 1948(5%)
Total 12883(100%) 16107(100%) 24253(100%) 35760(100%)WorldsummaryTransport 32192(42%) 33808(42%) 40178(43%) 45375(39%)Residential/commercial 6984(9%) 7003(9%) 7838(8%) 8753(8%)Industry 11446(15%) 10532(13%) 11257(12%) 13276(12%)Electricitygeneration 23626(31%) 25279(31%) 29679(32%) 41453(36%)Othertransformation 2910(4%) 3860(5%) 4542(5%) 6045(5%)
TOTAL 77158(100%) 80482(100%) 93494(100%) 114902(100%)Note:Duetorounding,somepercentagesmaynotaddupto100.Source:OECD/IEA(1991:149-50).
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Box2.4HarvardSixCitiesStudy
Studiestodeterminetheassociationbetweenairpollutionandmortalityrateshaveoftenbeencriticizedongroundsthattheinvestigatorsdidnotdirectlycontrolforotherfactors,suchastobaccosmoking.Theconsistentfindingsobtainedfromawell-characterizedcohortofadultsbytheHarvardSixCitiesStudysuggestthatthecriticismhaslimitedvalidityatbest.
DatafortheHarvardstudywereobtainedfrom8,111adultsinsixcitiesintheUnitedStates,commencingin1974andconcludingin1991.Theobjectofthestudywastodeterminetheeffectsofairpollutiononmortalitywhilecontrollingforseveralriskfactors,includingtobaccosmoking;sex;age;educationlevel;andoccupationalexposuretodust,gases,andfumes.Dataonambientconcentrationsoftotalsuspendedparticulatematter,sulfurdioxide,ozone,andsuspendedsulfateswereobtainedforeachcommunityfromacentrallylocatedairmonitoringstation.
Theinvestigatorsfoundthatairpollutionhadsignificanteffectsonmortalityrateswhentheycontrolledfortheabove-mentionedriskfactors.Astatisticallysignificantassociationwasfoundbetweenfineparticulateairpollutionanddeathsfromcardiopulmonarydisease,andlungcancer.Theinvestigatorsconcludedthattheirconsistentfindingsprovidedanadditionalreasontoreduceurbanairpollution.
ThefindingsofthestudytookonglobalsignificancewhentheGlobalEnvironmentalMonitoringSystemoftheUnitedNationsestimatedthat70percentofthe
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world'surbanpopulationlivesincitieswherethelevelofsuspendedparticulatesexceedsWHOguidelines.
Source:Dockeryandothers(1993:175359,1807);andGEMS,WHO,andUNEP(1987:47).
SuspendedParticulateMatter
ChemicalNatureandEffects
Particulatematteristhenameforabroadarrayoffinelydividedsolidsorliquidsthatmaybedispersedintotheairbycombustionprocesses,industrialactivities,ornaturalevents.Thenatureoftheparticulatesvariesdependingontheirsource.Particulatescanrangeindiameterfromlessthan0.1micrometers(µm)to1,000µmorso.Particulatessmallerthan10µmarereferredtoassuspendedinhalableparticulates;particulates2.5µmorsmallerareknownasfineparticulates.
Suspendedparticulatesthatmeasure10micronsorlessremainintheatmospherelongerthanlargerparticlesandaresmallenoughtobeinhaleddeeplyintotherespiratorytract.Hence,particulatemattercancontributetorespiratoryillnesses,withthetoxiceffectdependentonthechemicalnatureoftheparticulateandongasesthatmaybeadsorbedonparticulatesurfacesorabsorbedwithinparticulates(seeBox2.4).Particulatesintheatmospherealsoreducevisibility.
Sources
Largerparticlescomeprimarilyfromsoilandothercrustalmaterials,whereasfineparticulatescanbecombinationsofsoot,acidcondensates,andsulfateandnitrate
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particles.Respirableparticlesinurbanareasoftencontainlead,othermetals,organiccompounds,sulfuricacid,andothersulfates.However,thereisnosharpdividinglinebetweensmallerandlargerparticulates,sinceeventhelargerparticulatescanbefoundintheairundercertainconditions.
Naturalsourcesofparticulatematterincludevolcanicactivity,duststorms,forestfires,strongwindsblowingoverdrysoil,andpollenfromtreesandflowers.Combustionoffuelsforheatingandpowergenerationinindustrialprocessesandforpoweringmotorvehiclesalsogeneratesparticulates.Particulatescontainingleadcompoundsareemittedfromtheexhaustsofvehiclesthatuseleadedgasoline.Theblacksmokeofdieselvehiclesalsocancontainsubstantialamountsofparticulatematter;infact,uncontrolleddieselenginesemitsome30to70timesmoreparticulatematterthanvehiclesequippedwithcatalyticconvertersandusingunleadedgasolineasfuel(Sinhaandothers1990).
AstudyconductedbytheGEMSnetworkontheglobalspreadofparticulatepollutionovertheperiod198084foundthatparticulateemissionsin37of41citieseitherexceededorcameclosetoexceedingWHOguidelinesforparticulates(French1990:11).Nearly1.4billionurbanresidents,mostlyindevelopingcountries,maybeexposedtoairwithborderlineorunacceptableamountsofparticulates.Althoughtheselevelswerepartiallyattributedtonaturaldust,themainoffenderswerediesel-fueledvehicles,whichmaygenerate10timesmoreparticulatesthangasolineengines,andmotorscootersequippedwithtwo-cycleengines.AccordingtotheWHOandtheUnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme,oneineveryfivepersonsintheworldisexposedtoexcessiveconcentrationsofparticulatematter.Table2.6liststenofthecitiesthatexceededtheWHOguidelineofanannualmeanof60to90µg/m3forparticulatematter.AnnualmeanconcentrationsofparticulatesinKuwait,New
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Delhi,andBeijingexceededWHOguidelinesbyasmuchasfivetimes(French1990:1112).
Lead
Effects
Atpresentregulatoryagenciesandhealthorganizationshavenotreachedafirmconsensusonthemaximumpermissibleconcentrationofleadintheblood.Evenso,thegroupshaveallloweredtheamountofleadconsideredtocauseleadpoisoningasnewinformationabouttheneurologic,reproductive,andpossiblehypertensiveeffectsofleadtoxicityhasbecomeavailable.Currently,theWorldHealthOrganizationsuggeststhatalevelof20microgramsofmetalperdeciliterofblood(20µg/dl)isthemaximumacceptableconcentration.Otherstudiesconsiderthatthedetrimentaleffectsofexposuretoleadappearatconcentrationsofbetween10and15µg/dl(Correa1989:2).Itisnotnecessary,however,tohavebeenexposedtomajordosesofleadtocontractleadpoisoning.Thebodytendstoaccumulateleadoveralifetimeandcanreleaseitonlyslowly.Hence,evenexposuretosmallconcentrationsofleadoveralongperiodcan
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Table2.6SuspendedParticulateMatterinVariousCitiesBetween1980and1984City Annualmeana(µg/m3) Daysabovestandardb(peryear)
Kuwait 603 N/ANewDelhi 405 294Beijing 399 272Tehran 245 174Jakarta 231 173Bangkok 197 97KualaLumpur 130 37Zagreb 127 34RiodeJaneiro 114 11Lisbon 104 12Note:µg=1×10-6gm.aWHOannual-meanstandardis6090µg/m3.bWHOdailystandardis230µg/m3.Citiesareinviolationofthestandardwhentheyexceeditmorethansevendaysperyear.Source:French(1990).
produceharm.Itisthetotalbodyburdenofleadthatisrelatedtotheriskofadverseeffects(AgencyforToxicSubstancesandDiseaseRegistry1992:6).
Theprimarypathwaysofexposuretoleadareinhalationandingestion.Onceinhaledoringested,inorganicleaddoesnotundergobiologictransformation.Thisisincontrasttoorganiclead,whichentersthebodythroughinhalationorskincontactandisthenmetabolizedintheliver.Theprimarysourceoftheorganicformistetra-alkyl-leadadditivesingasoline.Irrespectiveofthemodeofexposure,however,thebiologicoutcomesarethesame:normalcellfunctionandanumberofotherphysiologicprocessesaredisrupted.Chieflyaffectedareperipheralandcentralnervoussystems,bloodcells,andthemetabolismofvitaminDandcalcium.
Lead'sdetrimentaleffectshavemoresevereconsequencesforchildrenthanforadults(seeBox2.5).Increasingmedicalevidenceshowsthatlead
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thanforadults(seeBox2.5).Increasingmedicalevidenceshowsthatleadatrelativelylowlevelsinthebloodcanharmthementaldevelopmentofchildrenandthattheharmfuleffectspersistintoadulthood.Thedevelopingnervoussysteminchildrencanbeaffectedadverselyatblood-leadlevelsoflessthan10µg/dl(AgencyforToxicSubstancesandDiseaseRegistry1992:8).Neurologicdeficitsaswellasothereffectscausedbyleadpoisoningmaybeirreversible.Effectsonchildrengenerallyoccuratlowerconcentrationsthaninadults.Figure2.3showsblood-leadlevelsassociatedwithspecifichealtheffectsinchronicallyexposedchildrenandadults.
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Acuteexposuretoleadcanhaveharshoutcomes,insomecasesendingindeath.Severetoxicityisoftenassociatedwithblood-leadlevelsof70µg/dlorhigherinchildrenand100µg/dlorhigherinadults(AgencyforToxicSubstancesandDiseaseRegistry1992:12).Atlevelsof80µg/dl,poisoningofthecentralnervoussystemcanoccur,causingconvulsions,coma,anddeep,irreversiblementalretardation.Functionalchangesintheperipheralnervoussystemandanemiacanalsooccuratthatlevel.Alaginthetransmissionofnervesignalsfromthebraintotherestofthebodyhasbeenobservedatlevelsbelow40µg/dl(Correa1989:2).
Otherscientificstudieshavedemonstratedthatleadisalsolinkedtohighbloodpressureandmaysignificantlyincreasetherisksofheartattacksandstrokesinadults.Leadalsocausesreproductivetoxicity.Maternalleadstorescaneasilybetransmittedtothefetusthroughtheplacenta,therebyplacingthefetusatgreatriskofsufferingreductionsingestationalage,birthweight,andmentaldevelopment(Romieu1992).
Ithasbeendeterminedthatthelevelsofleadingasolinearecorrelatedwithlevelsinthebloodstreamofthepopulation.Between1972and1984theconsumptionofleadadditivesingasolinedeclinedandwasfollowedbyadecreaseinleadconcentrationsinambientair.Thischange,inturn,hadstrikingeffectsontheblood-leadlevelsoftheU.S.population(Shy1990).Figure2.4depictsthecorrelation:aparalleldecreaseinblood-leadlevelsasthequantityofleadusedingasolinedecreased.Thepresentaverageblood-leadconcentrationintheU.S.populationisbelow10µg/dl;itaveraged16µg/dlbeforethelegislatedremovalofleadfromgasoline(AgencyforToxicSubstancesandDiseaseRegistry1992:14).Figure2.5givesblood-leadlevelsofpersonsincitiesinseveralcountries.Peopleincountriesthatstilluseleadedgasoline,onaverage,havehigherleadcontentintheirblood.
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Sources
Metalsmelters,batterymanufacturingplants,andleadedgasolinearetheleadingsourcesofairbornelead.Althoughthedetrimentaleffectsofleadonhumanhealthhadbeenknownforalongtime,itwasnotwidelyrealizedthatgasolinewasamajorsourceofleadintheairuntilthemid-1970s.Althoughleadingasolineaccountsforonlyabout10percentofallrefinedleadproducts,itisnowunderstoodtoaccountfor60percentofanthropogenicleademissions(possibly90percentincitieswithhightrafficcongestionandvehicleswithoutadequateemissioncontrolsystems).
Gasolineisnowconsideredbyfarthegreatestcontributortoairborneleadintheindustrializedworld(GEMS,UNEP,andWHO1988).Nearlyalltheleadaddedtogasolineisreleasedtotheatmosphereatsomepoint.Theorganicformstetra-ethyl-lead(TEL)ortetra-methyl-lead(TML)arereleasedintotheair,principallyasinorganicleadsaltsandoxidesinaerosolform.Only1percentoftheleadingasolineisemittedunchangedasTELorTML.Leadparticlesremainsuspendedinairforlongdurationsbeforesettling.Theymayalsobedepositedinthesoilandcontaminatefoodandwater.Thus,leadcanbeinhaledfrommotorvehicleemissionsoringestedthroughfoodandwater.
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Figure2.3EffectsofInorganicLeadonChildrenand
AdultsLowestObservableAdverseEffectLevelsSource:AgencyforToxicSubstancesandDiseaseRegistry(1992).
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Figure2.4CorrelationBetweenLevelsofLeadinGasolineandin
BloodstreamSource:Shy(1990).
Figure2.5
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LeadPollutioninSelectedCitiesSource:UNESCAP(1992).
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Box2.5TheEffectsofLead
About10percentoftheleaddischargedbymotorvehiclesisdepositedwithin100meters(0.6miles)ofroadsidesareasfrequentlyoccupiedbychildrenatplayindevelopingcountries.Onlyafewstudieshavebeenconductedindevelopingcountriesontheeffectsofleadonchildren'shealth,however.Thesestudies,conductedbytheWHO,revealthatchildrenindevelopingcountrieshaveabody-leadcontentthreetimesthatfoundinchildrenintheUnitedStates,Japan,orWesternEurope.Althoughthereisincreasingevidenceoflead'sharm,amajorityofthedevelopingcountriescontinuetouseleadedgasoline.
AstudyconductedinmetropolitanManila(JimenezandValasquez1989:55)foundconcentrationsofleadinbloodsamplesfrom544infantsandchildrenbetweentheagesof4monthsand14yearstobesufficienttowarrantconcern.Theaverageleadlevelinthesampledpopulationwas22.8µg/dl,withapproximately8percentofthechildrenhavinglevelsgreaterthan30µg/dl.Theselevelsareconsideredtobehighenoughtohavedetrimentaleffectsonthechildren(seeFigure2.3).Thestudyalsofoundasignificantcorrelationbetweenhighleadlevelsinthebloodandproximityofthehouseholdtodensetraffic.
Thenegativeeffectsofleadareenduring.Astudythatmeasuredtotalbody-leadburdeninprimaryschoolchildrenwithhightooth-leadlevelsbutwithnoknownhistoryofleadpoisoningfoundthatthechildrenhadlowintelligencescoresandattentionspans,poorspeechand
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languageskills,andpoorclassroomperformancecomparedwithchildrenhavinglowerconcentrationsoflead.Afollow-upreportonchildrenwithelevatedlevelsofleadintheirteethfoundasevenfoldincreaseinfailuretograduatefromhighschool,greaterabsenteeism,morereadingdisabilities,anddeficitsinvocabulary,finemotorskills,reactiontime,andhand-eyecoordination11yearslater.Theseobservedeffectsarebelievedtohavebeenasignoftheenduringtoxicityofleadratherthanofexcessiveacuteexposure,sincetheblood-leadlevelsoftheyoungadultswerelessthan10µg/dl(AgencyforToxicSubstancesandDiseaseRegistry1992:9).
Anotherstudy(Satterthwaite1993:93)conductedbetween1979and1981andinvolvingadultvolunteersin10citiesaroundtheworldrevealedthattheblood-leadlevelsofMexicoCityresidentswerethehighestandexceededWHOguidelines.Furthermore,theblood-leadlevelsweretwotofourtimesthoseofresidentsofcitieswherelow-leadandunleadedgasolinewereused.Sincematernalleadstoresreadilycrossthroughtheplacenta(AgencyforToxicSubstancesandDiseaseRegistry1992:2),itisnotsurprisingthata1988studyrevealedthatmorethan25percentofnewborninfantsinMexicoCityhadblood-leadlevelshighenoughtoimpairneurologicalandmotor-physicaldevelopment(Satterthwaite1993:93).
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3HealthandEnvironmentalEffectsofMajorPollutants,PartII:GreenhouseGases,SulfurOxides/AcidRain,Ozone,andChlorofluorocarbonsTwenty-fiveyearsagoitwasthoughtthatairpollutionwasaproblemonlyinpopulouscitiesoftheindustrializedregions.Itisclear,however,thatairpollutionisnowamajorprobleminurbanareasofthedevelopingworldaswell.Thischapterlooksbrieflyatsomeregionalandglobalairpollutionproblemsthegreenhouseeffect,depletionoftheozonelayerintheupperatmosphere,andacidrainthathavereceivedincreasingattentionsince1970.
CarbonDioxideandtheGreenhouseEffect
Theaccretionintheatmosphereofcarbondioxide(CO2),nitrousoxide(N2O),methane(CH4),ground-levelozone(O3),andchlorofluorocarbons(CFCs)hasledtoglobalwarming.Thesegasesabsorbinfraredradiation(IR)fromtheearth,ineffectactingasaninsulatingblanketpreventingheatfromescapingtheearth'satmosphere,causinga''greenhouseeffect."Approximately50percentofglobalwarmingisattributedtoCO2.CFCsareresponsibleforabout20percent,methaneforabout16percent,andground-levelozoneforabout8percent;nitrousoxideaccountsformostoftheremaining6percent(Tétrault1992:48).CFCs,CH4,O3,andN2OabsorbinfraredradiationmoreeffectivelythanCO2,andcollectivelytheirheat-trappingabilitymayequalthatofCO2.
Areportpreparedbyagroupof200scientistsfrommorethan24countriesknownastheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)concludedthatcontinuedproductionofCO2andother
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greenhousegasesatcurrentlevelswouldcauseadoublingoftheirpreindustrialconcentrationsby2050.Thepanelalsoconcludedthattheaverageplanetarytemperaturewouldriseby3°Cbytheendofthetwenty-firstcentury,andtheearth'ssurfacetemperaturewouldthenbeapproximately18°C(64°F);thecurrentmeanglobaltemperatureattheearth'ssurfaceisabout15°C(59°F).Thismaybecontrastedtoanormforglobaltemperaturechangesof1to2°Coveraspanof1,000to10,000years,anditmaybesignificantthatittookariseofa"mere"5°Ctobringtheearthoutofthelasticeage(Tétrault1992:48).Hence,thecurrentrateofchangeintheearth'stemperaturemaywellbecauseforalarm.
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Table3.1summarizestheincreaseingreenhousegases.Acenturyago,theCO2concentrationintheatmospherewaslessthan300,000ppb(300ppm).Thecurrentconcentrationis354,000ppb(354ppm)andisexpectedtodoubleearlyinthetwentyfirstcentury(GraedelandCrutzen1990).AccordingtoSilver(1993:314)atmosphericCO2hasincreasedby25percentsincethebeginningoftheindustrialrevolution,morethan200yearsago.
Givenacontinuationofthecurrentrateofincreaseof0.4percentperyear,CO2couldhavesignificantadverseimpactsontheworld'sclimate.Theseeffectsmightincludeshiftsinclimaticzones,changesinrainfallpatterns,moreextremeweatherconditions,andariseinsealevel.Suchchangeswouldseriouslyaffectlifeinmostcountries.Ifglobalwarmingincreasesuncheckedthepolaricecapsmayshrink,causingtheoceanleveltoriseby5or6meters.Mostcoastalcitiesworldwidecouldbeaffected.Itisalsocontendedthatever-largerconcentrationsofCO2willhaveadirecteffectonfarmsandforestseveniftheydonotelevateworldtemperatures.Plantswouldgrowatanacceleratedrate,buttheirqualitywouldbepoor.Plantlifewouldcontainfewernutrients,andplantswouldharborincreasednumbersofinsects,whichwouldconsumemoreleaves.Ultimately,plantswoulddecomposemoreslowly,anditwouldtakelongerfortheirnutrientstoberestoredtothesoil(EnvironmentalUpdate1990).
Deforestationandthecombustionofcoal,oil,andnaturalgasinjectbillionsoftonsofcarbonintotheatmosphereeachyearandareresponsiblefortheincreaseinCO2.Fossilfuelstodaygenerateapproximately20billiontonsofCO2annually,andincreasesinvehicleusesuggestthatwithoutstrictemissioncontrolsCO2emissionswillcontinuetogrow.Between300and400poundsofCO2aregeneratedduringcombustionofthecontentsofasinglestandard(16gallon)tankofgasoline.Ithasbeenestimatedthatmotorvehiclesemitalmost15percentoftheworld'sCO2emissions(DeLuchiand
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others1988).In1986,themobilesector,withapproximately25percentoftotalCO2emissionsintheOECDcountries,wasthesecondlargestcontributortoCO2emissions.Thissectorisexpectedtoaccountfor26percentinOECDcountriesin2005(OECD/IEA1991:48).Landclearing,cultivationofricepaddies,livestockproduction,andincreaseduseoffertilizers(Tétrault1992)alsocontributetoglobalwarmingbycausingtheaccumulationofmethaneandnitrousoxide.
Themostrecentavailabledataarefrom1989(WorldResourcesInstitute1992:208)andindicatethattheUnitedStatesandtheformerSovietUnion(FSU)arecurrentlythelargestandsecondlargestemitters,at18percentand14percent,respectively,ofgreenhousegases.TheEuropeanCommunityranksthird,at11percent.Indescendingorderbycountry,thelargestgreenhousegasemittersaretheUnitedStates(17.8to18.4percent),FSU(13.5to13.6percent),China(8.4to9.1percent),Japan(4.7to5.6percent),India(3.5to4.1percent),andBrazil(3.8to3.9percent).Together,thesecountriesaccountformorethan50percentofcurrentemissions.Itisworthnotingthatthreeofthesecontributorsaredevelopingcountries.
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Table3.1IncreaseinGreenhouseGasesConcentrationinatmosphere(ppb)
Gas
Majoranthropogenic
sources
Totalannualanthropogenic
emissions(millionsoftons)
Averageresidenceinatmosphere(years)
Average100yearsago
Current(approx.)
Projectedinyear2030
CO2 Fossilfuelcombustion,deforestation
5,500/~5,500
100 290,000 350,000 400,000to
550,000CH4 Ricefields,cattle,
landfills,fossil-fuelcombustion
300to400/550 10 900 1,700 2,200to2,500
N2ONitrogenousfertilizers,deforestation,biomassburning
6/25 170 285 310 330to350
CFCsAerosolsprays,refrigerants,foams
~1/1 60to100 0 About3(chlorineatoms)
2.4to6(chlorineatoms)
Note:ppb=partsperbillion;CO2=carbondioxide;CH4=methane;N2O=nitrousoxide;CFCs=chlorofluorocarbons.Source:AdaptedfromGraedelandCrutzen(1990).
Asdevelopingcountriesindustrialize,theiremissionswillrisesteeplyandmaycompoundenvironmentalproblemsunlessthesecountriesactinconcertwithorfollowtheleadofindustrializedcountriesinlimitingemissions.
SulfurOxidesandAcidRain
SourcesofSulfurOxides
Thelargestshareofsulfuremissionsfromhumanactivitiestakestheformofsulfurdioxide(SO2)andcomesfromtheburningofcoalandpetroleumproducts,petroleumrefining,andnonferroussmelting(seeBox3.1fora
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products,petroleumrefining,andnonferroussmelting(seeBox3.1forabriefexplanationofthechemicalmakeupandbehaviorofsulfuroxidesaspollutants).LargemetropolitanareaswithheavydailyenergyproductionandindustrialactivitytendtohavesubstantialSO2thataccumulateinthelocalatmosphereanddisperseonlyslowly.AstudywasconductedbyGEMS/Air(GEMS,UNEP,andWHO1988:1620)overtheperiod198084todeterminethelevelsofSO2intheambientairof54citiesworldwide.ThestudyfoundthatwhereashalfthecitieshadacceptableSO2levels,theotherhalfhadeithermarginal(20percent)orunacceptable(30percent)SO2levelswithreferencetoWHOannualaverageguidelinesof4060mg/m3.Datafromthe54-citystudywasextrapolatedtoincludeapopulationof1.8billion,andanapproximationofthetotalglobalurbanpopulationatriskforSO2wasobtained.Thisapproximationrevealedthatwhereas625millionpeopleliveinurbanareaswithaverageSO2levelsthatarewithinWHOannualguidelines,upto1.2billionurbanresidentsliveinareaswheretheairqualityforSO2is
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eithermarginal(550millionresidents)orunacceptable(625millionresidents).Furthermore,nearlyone-fifthoftheworld'spopulation(975million)areestimatedtoliveincitieswheretheshort-termWHOguidelinesof100150mg/m3limitfor98percentofdailyaveragesisexceededmorethan7daysayear.
Box3.1TheChemicalNatureofSulfurOxides
Sulfurdioxideisacolorlessgasthatcanbedetectedbytastebymostpeopleatconcentrationsintherangeof1,000to3,000microgramspercubicmeter(0.35to1.05ppm).Itspungent,asphyxiatingodorbecomesapparentatconcentrationsaboveabout10,000microgramspercubicmeteror3.5ppm.Mostfossilfuelscontainsulfurinfreeorcombinedform.Mostofthesulfurandsulfurderivativesreleasedtotheairaretheproductsofcombustionprocesses.Sulfurcompoundsreactwiththeoxygenpresentinairtoformoxidesofsulfur,whichareprecursorstoacidrain.Muchofthesulfurdioxidepresentinairisconvertedtosulfurtrioxide:
Sulfurdioxideandsulfurtrioxidereactwiththewatervaporinairtoformdilutesulfurous(H2SO3)andsulfuric(H2SO4)acids:
Thesediluteacidsareformedhighintheatmosphereandmaybecarriedbyprevailingwindsasfaras1,000milesbeforefallingtoearthasacidrain.Sulfurpollutantscanalterawholeecosystemwhentheyfalltoearthasacid
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rain.
Note:(g)=gasphase;(aq)=aqueousphase.
Source:Mastersonandothers(1985:515-46).
Table3.2providesdataonSO2concentrationsinselectedcitiesintheGlobalEnvironmentMonitoringSystems(GEMS)network(UNEP1991).Thedataarebasedontheannualmeanconcentrationsfortwoyears,withthetotalnumberofobservationsduringeachtwo-yearperiodshowninparentheses.Althoughmanymonitoringstationsmadedailyobservations,somemadethemlessfrequently(e.g.,onceeverysixdays),andthusthedatavaryincompletenessandmustbeinterpretedwithsomecaution.
Mostofthecitiesshowedagradualameliorationinairquality.Severaldevelopingcountries,however,reportedaworseningtrend.Ironically,concentrationsofSO2incitiesinlow-incomecountriesinthelate1970swere,onaverage,lessthanthoseincitiesofhigh-incomecountries.The1980s,sawareversal,however,asSO2concentrationsdeclinedincitiesofmiddle-andhigh-incomecountriesbutroseinthecitiesoflow-incomecountries(WorldBank1992:53).Thisshiftmayhavebeentheresultofthewealthiercountries'adoptionofmorestringentregulationofthesulfur
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Table3.2ConcentrationsofSO2atSelectedGEMS/AirSites,198089(mg/mAnnualmeanconcentration(numberofobservations)
Country City Site 198081 198283 198485 198687 198889U.S. NewYork SR
CCRCCI
40.0(728)70.5(725)50.5(726)
35.0(716)64.6(730)47.0(723)
31.0(725)61.0(724)45.0(729)
27.0(361)a52.0(364)a40.0(350)
Brazil SãoPaulo CCRCCM
120.0(729)127.0(723)
97.0(728)99.0(723)
62.0(727)60.0(725)
54.5(120)73.0(120)
55.0(61)50.0(61)
China Beijing SICCCSRCCR
38.0(104)a66.0(113)a6.0(93)a98.0(110)a
60.5(365)101.5(374)15.0(349)147.0(368)
79.0(76)a130.0(86)a27.0(80)a161.0(78)a
61.5(297)112.5(326)28.5(324)125.0(293)
53.5(336)103.0(351)29.5(326)114.5(330)
Guangzhou SRCCRCCCCCI
38.0(104)a66.0(113)a117.0(76)a12.0(55)a
60.5(365)101.5(374)93.5(349)14.5(333)
79.0(76)a130.0(86)a67.5(336)113.0(317)
61.5(297)112.5(326)59.5(345)122.0(333)
53.5(336)103.0(351)58.5(353)135.5(354)
Shanghai CCICCRCCC
23.0(88)a52.0(87)a65.0(85)a
52.5(341)69.0(354)57.5(355)
49.0(86)a84.5(353)51.0(358)
40.5(357)98.0(351)77.5(358)
55.5(338)104.0(294)69.0(343)
Shenyang CCRCCICCCSI
29.0(73)a136.0(72)a72.0(72)a27.0(72)a
130.5(288)238.5(288)130.5(288)46.0(287)
135.0(288)320.0(288)58.0(72)a17.0(72)a
115.5(290)223.0(288)134.0(288)49.0(288)
70.0(288)207.5(288)101.5(288)29.0(276)
Xian SRCCRCCCSI
22.0(98)a108.0(119)a160.0(120)a46.0(117)a
30.0(383)118.0(396)104.5(397)66.5(394)
29.5(313)100.5(324)120.5(323)52.0(321)
31.0(276)118.0(289)92.5(288)66.5(287)
37.0(252)97.5(288)95.5(286)79.5(288)
Iran Tehran CCCSISR
169.5(172)137.5(154)140.0(160)
145.5(122)161.5(135)111.0(125)
97.5(115)87.5(94)47.5(98)
90.0(49)120.5(31)45.5(33)
211.0(42)149.0(28)81.5(30)
Japan Tokyo CCCSRCCI
42.0(719)40.0(722)48.5(724)
25.5(719)37.0(726)31.0(724)
24.0(731)31.0(727)31.0(731)
20.5(730)21.5(729)29.5(730)
19.0(360)18.0(366)26.0(366)
Thailand Bangkok SR 14.0(155) 18.0(310) 14.0(166) 14.5(1210) 13.0(190)Poland CCC 39.0(577) 40.5(583) 62.5(565) 35.0(488) 53.0(564)
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Poland CCCCCICCR
39.0(577)27.5(583)31.5(558)
40.5(583)34.5(563)31.0(527)
62.5(565)48.5(547)44.0(522)
35.0(488)26.0(445)32.0(446)
53.0(564)34.5(542)40.0(506)
Spain Madrid CCCSRCCI
111.5(578)46.0(653)113.5(310)
80.5(566)33.5(654)91.0(208)a
47.5(499)27.5(582)
50.5(667)25.5(680)
31.5(663)17.5(658)
Yugoslavia Zagreb CCCSRCCI
87.5(671)41.5(730)41.5(731)
85.0(716)42.5(712)53.0(705)
104.5(727)64.5(694)75.0(721)
110.0(703)63.0(725)73.0(679)
82.5(694)44.0(637)102.0(698)
Note:=notavailable.;CCC=citycentercommercial;CCI=citycenterindustrial;CCM=citycentermobile;CCR=citycenterresidential;SI=suburbanindustrial;SR=suburbanresidential.aBasedononeyearofmeasurementonly.Source:AdaptedfromUNEP(1991).
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contentinfuels(seechapter4),conservation-basedenergypolicies,andashiftfromoiltosulfur-freeenergysourcessuchasnaturalgasandnuclearenergy(OECD/IEA1991).ItisalsopossiblethatthebuildingoftallersmokestacksindevelopedcountrieshassimplydispersedSO2emissionsfurtherafield.
Untilrecently,acidrainwasfoundonlyinthenorthernhemisphere.Butasdevelopingcountrieshaveexpandedtheirindustrialbasesandusedmorefossilfuel,acidrainhasalsoappeared.RecentdatashowthreateninglevelsofsoilacidityinpartsofBrazil,Colombia,Venezuela,India,SoutheastAsia,Japan,andChina.SoilsthathavebecomeacidicfromlandclearingandbiomassburninghavealsobeendetectedeveninpartsofunindustrializedAfrica(Tétrault1992).
EffectsofSO2andAcidRain
Anestimated1billionormorepeopleworldwideareexposedtounhealthylevelsofatmosphericSO2(WorldBank1992:53).Clinicalstudiesusinghumansubjectshavefoundthatchildrenandbothhealthyandat-riskadultsarevulnerabletoSO2emissions,dependingonhealthstatus,individualsensitivity,andactivitylevel.Individualswhosufferfromchronicrespiratorydiseasessuchasbronchitis,emphysema,andasthmamayexperiencecoughinganddifficultiesinbreathingwhentheSO2concentrationrisesfrom0.1to0.2ppm.Ithasbeendocumentedthatasthmaticsareupto20timesmoresensitivetoatmosphericSO2thanhealthyadults(U.S.Congress1987).AcuterespiratorydiseasesareamajorprobleminbigcitiessuchasShanghai,wherehousingiscrampedandalackofzoningrestrictionsplaceslargenumbersofpeopleindwellingsadjacenttoindustrialplantsthatemithighlevelsofSO2.Thecity'sairqualityproblemsareattributedtoits91,000industrialboilersandtoitshouseholdstoves,whichburn25milliontonsofcoalayear.GEMShasrecordedSO2levelsinShanghaiatoraboveWHOguidelines,and
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thelevelsmaywellbetwiceashighasrecommendedinareasnotmonitoredbyGEMS(UNEPandWHO1992:33).SO2pollutionisalsomeasurablyaffectingthehealthofarmyinducteesinPoland.ChronicbronchitiswasfoundtobethreetimesasprevalentininducteesatarmyrecruitmentcentersincitieswithelevatedconcentrationsofSO2thanatcentersincitieswithcleanerair(WorldResourcesInstitute1993:546).
SO2isaprimarycomponentofaciddepositionanddamagestheecosystembothdirectlyandindirectly.Thedirectharmisseeninfoliage,particularlycropplantssuchaswheat,barley,oats,whitepine,cotton,alfalfa,buckwheat,andsugarbeets,whichcanbeseverelyinjuredbySO2concentrationsofaslittleas0.3ppm.SO2alsodisruptsecosystemsindirectlythroughacidificationofsoilsandsurfacewaters.ThesynergisticeffectofSO2andlowlevelsofozoneornitrogenoxidescausessevereinjurytoplants.ThisisevidentinEurope,whereforestshavesuffereddramaticallysincethe1970s.Accordingtoarecentanalysis,about75percentofEurope'scommercialforestshavebeenaffectedbySO2.Thecostsofforestdiebackscanrangefromdecreasedrevenuesfromsmallertimberharvestsandsubsequentlossestowoodmanufacturingindustriestoscarringofrecreationalareasandparks(WorldResourcesInstitute1992:208).
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BarrenlakesthroughouttheworldrevealtheindirectdamagethatcanbecausedbySO2.Theconcentrationofhydrogenionsinacidrainis5to100timesthatindistilledwater.Whenacidrainfallsinareaswherethebedrockisgranite,orwhereothermaterialispresentthatisincapableofneutralizinghydrogenions,itisespeciallyinjurious(U.S.Congress1987).Astheconcentrationofacidgrowsinlakes,marinelifefromalgaetobrooktroutdies,leavingaclearbutbarrenbodyofwater.IntheUnitedStates,lakesinNewYork'sAdirondackmountainsandinthemountainsofnorthernNewEnglandareendangeredbyannualdepositsofasmuchas4metrictonsofsulfuricacidpersquarekilometer.Morethan200sterilelakescanbefoundintheAdirondacksalone,allofthemvictimsofacidrain.InEurope,heavilyindustrializedregionsareprimarysourcesofacidrain.Inadditiontothelocaldamagetheycause(seeBox3.2),SO2emissionscanwreakhavocondistantecosystems.Morethan50percentofthesulfurdepositioninFinlandisattributedtoemissionsfromothercountries.EmissionsfromCentralEuropeandtheU.K.havealsoacidifiedsome7,000squaremilesoflakesinsouthernNorway(WorldResourcesInstitute1993:544).
Box3.2SO2andEffectsofAcidRainintheCzechRepublic
SulfurdioxideemissionsandacidrainhavecausedseveredamagetotheenvironmentandthepopulationintheCzechRepublic.
EnergyconsumptionintheCzechRepublic(whichpartedcompanywiththeSlovakRepubliconJanuary1,1993)isquitesubstantialandhasbeentheleadingcauseofenvironmentalharmsinceWorldWarII.Oneofthekeyproblemsisthattheprimaryfossilfuelislignite(browncoal),whichhasaverylowcaloriccontentanda
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highsulfurcontent(5to10percent).Ligniteisstripminedprimarilyinasmall(2,500km2)regionofthecountry,NorthernBohemia,thatishometo500,000inhabitants.Theregionharborsthecountry'shighestconcentrationofcoal-firedpowerplantsandproduces45percentofallSO2and40percentofnitrogenoxideemissionsfortheentireCzechRepublic.
OnlyafewforestsintheRepublicremainhealthy;thousandsofhectaresoflandhavebecomebarrenfromthedailyonslaughtofacid.InNorthernBohemiaandsurroundingareasinparticular,thesoilissoacidic(pHof4.3to2.3)thatitisunabletosupportlifeofanykind.Withthedemiseofforests,soilerosionisinevitable.
DecreasedlifeexpectancyinsomeareasoftheCzechRepublichasbeenattributedtothedetrimentaleffectsofSO2pollution.InNorthernBohemia,theaveragelifespan(foraman,65.4years;forawoman,73.3years)istwoyearslessthanthecountry'saveragelifeexpectancy.Moreover,thepeopleofNorthernBohemiasufferfrombronchitisandotherdiseasesoftheupperrespiratorytractandallergiesatrates260and300percenthigher,respectively,thantheCzechRepublic'spopulationasawhole.
Source:Havlicek(1993).
SO2emissionsalsohavedamagedEurope'sheritageofoutdoorsculptureandarchitecture.SmoghangsoverAthens;theSO2inthesmogcanturnmarbleandotherstoneintogypsumthatiswashedawaybyrain.Greece'soutdoormonumentsand
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statues,includingthepricelessruinsontheAcropolis,havebeenpockedanddiscoloredbythischemicalreaction.Moredamagehasbeendoneinthe20thcenturythaninthepreceding2,000years.AcidicparticlesalsothreatenstonemonumentsinItaly.Morethan8milliontouristsvisitGreeceeachyear,andabout50millionvisitItaly(WorldResourcesInstitute1993:532,540).Damagetohistoricartifactsandbuildingscouldproduceadecreaseintourism,followedbyadeclineintheireconomies.
Ozone
Ozoneisabluishgaswithapungentodorthatispresentintheatmospherefromtheearth'ssurfaceuptoatleast100km.Dependingonitsconcentrationanddistancefromtheearth'ssurface,ozonecanhaveeitherharmfulorbeneficialeffectsontheenvironmentandonthehealthofindividuals.Ozonefoundneargroundlevel(within10to15kmoftheearth)isreferredtoastroposphericozoneandcomprisesapproximately10percentofatmosphericozone.Ozonefoundataltitudesof15kmormoreisknownasstratosphericozoneandcomprises90percentormoreofatmosphericozone.
Dynamictransportofmaterialsfromthetropospheretothestratosphereandviceversaisimportanttothechemicalcompositionofbothregions.Globaltroposphericchemistryisimportanttotheoverallatmosphericbehaviorofozone,sinceprecursormolecules,suchasNO2,andsinkmolecules,suchasNOandCl,arederivedfromorremovedinthetroposphere.
Ground-LevelOzone
OzonemeasurementsnearthegroundinthemiddleandhighlatitudesoftheNorthernHemispherehaveincreasedoverthepastfewdecadesatarateof1to2percentperyear.Aslittleas0.2ppmofozoneneartheearth'ssurfacepromotestheformationofsmog.Troposphericor
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ground-levelozoneisformedintheatmospherethroughacomplicatedseriesofchemicalreactionswhenitsprecursors,hydrocarbonsandnitrogenoxides,combineinthepresenceofsunlight(seeBox3.3forasimplifiedchemistryoftroposphericorground-levelozoneformation).Thereactivehydrocarbons,volatileorganiccompounds(VOCs),areproducedbyseveralsources,includingmotorvehicleemissions,evaporationofsolventsandgasoline,chemicalmanufacturing,petroleumrefining,andtoalesserdegreewastedisposalsitesandwastewatertreatmentplants.
Thenitrogenoxides(NOx)arisemainlyfromcombustionoffossilfuels.GroundlevelozoneisoneofmorethanahundredcompoundsformedwhenVOCsandNOxreactchemicallyinthepresenceofsunlight.Theresultingmixtureisknownasphotochemicalsmog.PhotochemicalsmogwasinitiallynotedinLosAngeles,butitisnowcommoninmanycitiesinEurope,Japan,SouthAmerica,andelsewhereintheUnitedStates.BrightsunnymorningswithrelativelyhighlevelsofNO2areidealforsmogformation,asarehightemperatures.Ozoneconcentrationsarelowestaroundsunrisenearzeroinmosturbanareasandreachamaximumconcentrationintheearlyafternoon.SeeFigure3.1foraprofileofdailypollutionconcentrationsinLosAngeles.Ozoneformationisaggravatedwhentemperature-inducedairinversionstrapthecomponentsthatformsmog.
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Box3.3ChemistryofTroposphericOzoneFormation
Thechemicalreactionsgivenbelowareasimplifiedversionofthecomplexseriesofchemicalreactionsthatoccurduringtheformationoftroposphericorground-levelozone.Sunlightisessentialbecauseitprovidestheenergynecessaryforthesereactionstooccur.Thephoto-oxidationofCO,CH4,andhydrocarbons(foundintheatmosphere)givesrisetoavarietyofcomplexorganicperoxyradicalsrepresentedasNitrogenoxide(NO)inairreactswiththeseperoxyradicalstoformnitrogendioxide(NO2):
Thekeystepinsmogformationisthephotodissociationofnitrogendioxide:
Theabovereactiontakesplaceattheedgeofthevisibleregionintheatmosphere(392nm).TheoxygenatomsproducedreactwithsurroundingO2moleculestoformozone:
Note:(g)=gasphase.SeeWorldMeterologicalOrganization(1985:117-50)foradetailedaccountoftroposphericchemistry.
Source:WorldMeteorologicalOrganization(1985:119,127);Mastersonandothers(1985:536-37).
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Figure3.1AverageConcentrationsofNO,NO2,andO3atVariousTimesofDayinLosAngeles
Source:Mastersonandothers(1985).
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Table3.3givesthehighesthourlymaximumlevelsoftroposphericozoneinselectedcitiesaroundtheglobe.Mostofthemetropolitanareasmonitoredforozoneexceededtheshort-term(1hour)WHOguidelinesforozoneof150to200mg/m3(0.0766to0.1005ppm).
Table3.3OzoneLevelsinSelectedCities,1989Concentration
Metropolitanarea Population ppm mg/mTokyo-Yokohama 28,700,000 0.0738a 145MexicoCity 19,400,000 0.4050 793NewYork 17,400,000 0.2780 545SãoPaulo 17,200,000 0.1549 304BuenosAires-LaPlata 12,400,000 0.0560b 110bLosAngeles 11,500,000 0.3500 686Paris 10,000,000 0.1170 229Karachi 7,300,000 0.0900 176Tianjin 5,625,000 0.1900 372SanFrancisco-Oakland-SanJose 5,225,000 0.1500 294HongKong 5,175,000 0.1070 210Nagoya 4,925,000 0.0699b 131Santiago 4,700,000 0.3990 782Johannesburg 4,600,000 0.1200 235Berlin(EastandWest)d 3,940,000 0.2600 509Houston 3,225,000 0.2300 450Guadalajara 3,100,000 0.1900 372Montreal 2,950,000 0.1550 303Naples 2,925,000 0.0780b 137SanDiego-Tijuanad 2,720,000 0.2500c 489Budapest 2,575,000 0.1100 216CapeTown 2,425,000 0.1030 202Note:Highesthourlymaximumin1989orlatestavailableyearfromresponsestoPopulationCrisisCommitteequestionnaire.aAverageconcentrationfortwoyears.bMeasuresmorethan1hour.cSanDiegoonly.dInternationalcities:DataareprovidedseparatelyforSanDiego-Tijuanabutnotfor
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dInternationalcities:DataareprovidedseparatelyforSanDiego-TijuanabutnotforEastandWestBerlin.Source:Camp(1990).
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HealthandEnvironmentalEffectsofOzoneandOtherPhotochemicalOxidants
Thephotochemicalreactionofhydrocarbonswithoxidesofnitrogenproducesmanyphotochemicaloxidants,mostofwhicharecolorlesstoxicgases.Apartfromozone(O3),theseincludeformaldehyde(HCHO);peroxyacylnitrate(CH3[CO]OONO2),commonlyabbreviatedasPAN;acrolein(CH2CHO);andperoxybenzoylnitrate(PBzN).TheeffectofozoneatdifferentconcentrationsisgiveninTable3.4,andTable3.5providesarecentupdateontheshort-termoracuteeffectsofozoneonhealthyindividuals.Theeffectsoflong-termorchronicexposuretoozonearepoorlydefinedandshouldbestudiedmoreintensively.ThedetrimentaleffectsofozonemayalsobecausedbythesynergiesbetweenNO2,acidsulfate,andotherphotochemicaloxidants.
Excessivelevelsofozonehavebeenfoundtobeharmfultopeople.Evenshort-termexposuretoozonecanresultincoughing,painfulbreathing,andtemporaryreductionoflungfunctionafteroneortwohoursofexercise.Repeatedexposuretoozonemayresultinretardationoflungdevelopmentinchildren,acceleratedagingofthelung,permanentimpairmentoflungfunction,andthedevelopmentofchroniclungdiseasessuchaspulmonaryfibrosis.Manyindividualsexposedtoozonesuffereyeirritationandasthmaattacks.Ozone'sprecursors,NO2andVOCs,alsoposeathreattohumanhealthandtheenvironment.NO2isarespiratoryirritant,whereasVOCsarerespiratoryandeyeirritantsandmayalsobecarcinogenic.InJuly1992,whenozoneinAthenssurpassedthedangerouslevelandNO2alsoreacheddangeroushighs,manypeoplewenttohospitalswithheartandrespiratorycomplaints(Walsh1992b:19).
Onthebasisofstudiesofthehealtheffectsofshort-term(one-hour)exposuretoozone,EPAhasconcludedthat0.12ppm(240mg/m3)is
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thepermissibleexposurelevel.Butozoneconcentrationsatlevelsbelow0.12ppmhaveadverseeffectsifexposureisprolonged(about6hours;ChiltonandSholtz1989).A1991studyconductedbytheAmericanLungAssociationrevealedthathealthyyoungadultssufferedfromareductioninlungfunction,aswellaswheezing,coughing,andchestirritationwhenexposedtoozoneconcentrationsof0.08ppm(Walsh1994a:1314).Hence,thecurrentEPAstandardmaynotbelowenoughtoprotectpeoplewhoareexposedforlongperiods,andrevisionofthestandardiscontemplated.
Elevatedozonelevelsalsoaffectvegetation.Visiblesignsofexposureincludelightflecks,darkstipples,andyellowspotsorpatchesonleaves,theseareindicationsofprematureaging.OzonemayalsobecontributingtothedeclineoftreespeciesintheUnitedStates,Canada,andEurope.ThedeclineofponderosaandJeffreypinesintheSanBernardinoMountainseastofLosAngelesandthedeclineofeasternwhitepinetreesacrosstheEasternUnitedStates,forexample,havebeenattributedprimarilytoozone(OfficeofTechnologyAssessment1989).
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Table3.4EffectsofOzoneatVariousConcentrationsConcentration(partspermillion)
Effectsa
0.01 Odorthreshold0.02for8hours Damagetotobaccoleavesbegins0.03for8hours Significantdamagetotobaccoleaves0.05 Noseandthroatirritationthreshold0.05for1hour Damagetotobaccoleavesbegins0.10for1hour Significantdamagetotobaccoleaves;pinetreeneedletipsburn0.05 Thresholdforeyeirritationinsensitivepeople(ambientoxidant)0.15b Eyeirritationthresholdformostpeople(ambient)0.10 Reductioninoxygenconsumptionandbloodoxygentension
(concentration)levelsinemphysemapatients0.1to0.25longterm Shortenslifespanofguineapigs0.10for8hours Definitesymptomaticeffectsinsensitivepeople0.20for3hours Decreaseofvisualacuity0.60 Coughirritationthreshold,pronouncednoseandthroatirritation1for1-1/2hour Coughing,irritation,severeexhaustion3to12forafewhours
Lethaltosmalllaboratoryanimals
Note:WHOguidelinesare0.076to0.1ppm(150to200mg/m3)for1hourexposureand0.05to0.06ppm(100to120mg/m3)for8hourexposure.aAsconcludedfromlaboratoryexperimentsutilizingozoneexceptwhereotherwiseindicated.Ambientmeasurementsarefor''totaloxidants."b0.25ppmbythephenolphthaleinmethod.Source:U.S.DepartmentofTransportation(1984).
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Table3.5HumanResponsetoSingleOzoneExposureResponse Subjects Exposureconditions
510%meandecrementinFEBa
Healthyyoungmen
0.18ppmwithintermittentheavyexercisefor2hoursO3inpurifiedair0.1ppmwithmoderateexercisefor6.6hoursOinpurifiedair0.1ppmwithveryheavyexercisefor0.5hourinambientair
Healthychildren 0.1ppmnormalsummercampprogramOpurifiedair
Increasedcough Healthyyoungmen
0.12ppmwithintermittentheavyexercisefor2hoursO3inpurifiedair
Healthyyoungmen
0.08ppmwithmoderateexercisefor6.6hoursO3inpurifiedair0.12to0.13ppmheavyexercisefor16to28minutesO3inpurifiedair
Reducedathleticperformance
Healthyyoungmen
0.18ppmwithexerciseatVEbof54L/minutefor30minutes,120L/minutefor30minutesOpurifiedair
Healthyyoungmenandwomen
0.12to0.13ppmwithexerciseatVEbof30to120L/minute16to28minutesO3inpurifiedair
Increasedairwayreactivity
Healthyyoungmen
0.08ppmwithmoderateexercisefor6.6hoursO3inpurifiedair
Healthyyoungmenwithallergicrhinitis
0.18ppmwithheavyexercisefor2hoursOpurifiedair
Increasedairwaypermeability
Healthyyoungmen
0.4ppmwithintermittentheavyexercisefor2hoursO3inpurifiedair
Increasedairwayinflammation
Healthyyoungmen
0.08ppmwithmoderateexercisefor6.6hoursO3inpurifiedair
Acceleratedtracheobronchialparticleclearance
Healthyyoungmen
0.2ppmwithintermittentlightexercisefor2hoursO3inpurifiedair
aForcedexpiratorybreathing.bExpiratoryvolume.
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bExpiratoryvolume.Source:AdaptedfromRomieu(1992:19).
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Upper-LevelOzone
Ozoneisbothproducedanddestroyedintheupperatmosphere(seeBox3.4forthesimplifiedchemistryofupper-levelorstratosphericozoneformation).Satellitemonitoringoftheupperatmospherehasshownthattheozonelayerataltitudesof28to35kmisbeingdepletedandthatasmuchas5percentoftheozoneatthe45kmlevelhasdisappeared.
Box3.4ChemistryofStratosphericOzoneFormation
Ozoneisproducedintheupperatmospherewhenoxygenmoleculesabsorbsolarultravioletradiation.First,oxygenatoms(O)arereleasedbythephotodissociationofmolecularoxygen(O2)byshort-wavelengthultravioletradiation(<243nm):
ThisisfollowedbyacollisionbetweenanOatomandanO2moleculetoproduceanunstablemoleculeofthreeoxygenatomsknownasozone(O3):
Note:(g)=gasphase;E=hn,whereE=energy,h=Planck'sconstant,n=frequencyoflight.SeeWorldMeteorologicalOrganization(1985:2756)foramoredetailedaccountofstratosphericozonechemistry.
Source:Mastersonandothers(1985).
Depletionofstratosphericozonehasimportantdetrimentaleffectsonhealthandtheenvironment.StratosphericozoneshieldstheearthfromultravioletB(UV-B)radiationfromthesun.A1percentdecreasein
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ozoneintheatmospherecausesa2percentincreaseinUV-Bradiation,whichinturnmayresultina4percentincreaseinskincancer(Titus1986:1).IncreasesinUV-Bradiationcanalsocauseeyecataractsandinjuretheskin'simmuneresponses.
Severalfactorssuchasmeteorologicalconditions,type,andconcentrationsofindustrialchemicalscontributetoozonedestructioninthestratosphere.Theprincipalchemicalsinvolvedarenitrogenoxideandchlorofluorocarbons(Box3.5givesabriefdescriptionofthecomplexchemicalprocesses).
CFCsandStratosphericOzoneDepletion
Theindustrialchemicalsknownaschlorofluorocarbons(CFCs)yieldchlorineatoms(Cl)throughaseriesofcomplexchemicalreactions.TheClatomsarethedirectcausesofthedepletionoftheozonelayer.CFCsareprimarilyresponsibleforthefactthatozone-depletingchlorinatedcompoundsinthestratosphereare4to5timeshigherthannormal.UnlessfurtherstepstocurbCFCemissionsaretaken,chlorinecompoundsinthestratospherewillincreaseatapproximately5percentperyear(GraedelandCrutzen
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Box3.5DepletionofStratosphericOzone
Ozonemoleculesdecaytoanoxygenmoleculeandanoxygenatomwithintheozonelayer.Thishappensinseveralways;oneofthemostimportantisthedirectcollisionofanozonemolecule(O3)withanoxygenatom(O):
RoleofNitrogenOxideinOzoneDestruction
Certainsinkmolecules,suchasNOandchlorine,actascatalystsinthedecompositionofozone.ThesemoleculescompetewithO2moleculesforfreeoxygenatomsintheozonelayerandhinderozoneformation.Ozoneisdepletedintwosteps:
NOmolecule:
Overallreaction:
Theoverallreactionisthesameaswhenanozonemoleculecollideswithanoxygenatom.
RoleofCFCsinOzoneDestruction
Sincethemid-1970s,CFCshavebeenrecognizedasasourceofchlorineinthestratosphereandhenceathreattotheozonelayer.CFCsareunaffectedbynaturalcleansingmechanisms,suchasrainfall,andescapeintothestratospherewithintenyears,wheretheysurvivefor
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about400years.Freongases,suchasCFCl3andCF2Cl2,areasourceofchlorine(Cl)atomsintheupperatmosphere.ThesecompoundsdecomposetoformClatomswhenexposedtoultravioletradiationat200nm.Atanaltitudeof40km,lightofthiswavelengthisfreelyavailable:
Thechlorineatomsactascatalysts(whichacceleratetherateofachemicalreactionandarefreedunalteredattheend)inthedecompositionofstratosphericozone.First,thechlorine(Cl)breakstheozoneintoordinaryoxygen(O2)andanoxygenatom(O).Itthencombineswiththefreeatomtoformchlorinemonoxide(ClO):
ThisisthenstrippedofitsOatombyanotherfreeOatomthatcombineswithittogivemolecularoxygen(O2).Thechlorineatom(Cl)isleftintactandcanrepeatthiscycle100,000timesbeforeitisfinallyneutralized:
IthasbeensuggestedthattheCl-catalyzedreactioncouldultimatelydecreasetotalozoneintheupperatmosphereby5to9percent.UseofCFCsasaerosolpropellantshasbeenphasedoutintheUnitedStates,Canada,andSweden.
Note:(g)=gasphase.SeeWorldMeteorologicalOrganization(1985:2756)foradetailedaccountofstratosphericchemistry.
Source:WorldMeteorologicalOrganization(1985:
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2938);Mastersonandothers(1985:527-28).
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1990:1718).CFCsareusedasrefrigerants,solvents,propellantsinspraycans,andblowingagentstoproducefoam.TheinertnessofCFCsintheloweratmospherewasinitiallyconsideredapositiveattributeinpreventingCFCsfromposingadirectthreattolivingorganisms.Unfortunately,thisalsoallowsCFCstoreachtheupperatmosphereunchanged,wheretheyarebrokenapartbyexposuretostrongsunlight,beginningachainreactionleadingtothedestructionofozone.BeforetheinventionofCFCs,ozoneconcentrationinthestratospherewas220Dobsonunits(Dobsonunitsarethestandardozonemeasure).By1987theozonereadinghadfallento120Dobsonunits.Itwasaboutthesamein1990,butin1992arecordlowmeasurementof105DobsonunitswasobtainedovertheAntarctic(Walsh1992a:8687).
TheUnitedKingdom's1993StratosphericOzoneReportstatedthatozonedepletionisworseninginEurope,withrecordlossesoccurringintheNorthernHemisphere'smid-latitudes.Thereportattributesthe3percentperdecadelossofozonetochlorineandbromine.ThereportalsostatesthattheaveragethicknessoftheglobalozonelayerfromMay1992toMay1993measuredbytheTotalOzoneMappingSpectrometerwas3percentlessthaninanyyearsince1978,whenmeasurementscommenced(Walsh1994b:78).TheNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministrationfounda5to18percentdecreasebelowaverageconcentrationintheozonelayerovertheUnitedStatesduringtheperiodJanuary1992toMay1993.Theseverestthinning(18percent)occurredfromMarchthroughMay1993.Thesevaluesarerecordlowsforthepast20years.BelgiumandtheNetherlandsalsoreportedalossof17to18percentbelowaveragelevelsforozonebetween1971and1993.TherecordlowsmayberelatedtotheJune1991eruptionofMountPinatubo(Walsh1993b:12),whichspeweddropletsofsulfuricacidintotheatmosphere.Thesedropletsprovidesurfacesforgeneratingtheozone-destroyingreactiveformsof
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chlorine.
ThemostalarminglossofstratosphericozonehasbeenobservedoverAntarctica.SixscientistswhospenttwomonthsintheAntarcticin1990wereexposedtosunlightthroughagiganticholeintheozonelayer.Unlesstheyworeprotectiveclothing,theywereseverelyburnedandbecamenauseatedafterexposureofjustafewhours.Exceptionallyhighconcentrationsofozone-depletingClOmoleculeshavebeendetectedintheAntarcticstratosphere(EnvironmentalUpdate1990),andasimilarsituationmaynowbeoccurringinthehighnorthernlatitudes.Approximately1.5ppbbyvolumeofClOhavebeendetectedinthestratosphereoverthehighnorthernlatitudes,aconcentrationcomparablewiththatfoundintheAntarctic(Walsh1992c:8586).
RelevancetoDevelopingCountries
Asstatedatthebeginningofchapter2,littlemeaningfulworkhasbeendoneinthedevelopingcountriestomonitorairpollutantsandassesstheireffectsonadults,children,andtheenvironment.AvailabledataindicatethatemissionsofallmajorpollutantsSO2,suspendedparticulatematter,CO,andNOx,andleadaregrowingindevelopingcountries;noneofthesecountrieshaveissuedozone,particulate,orother
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pollutionalerts.Thepollutantsdiscussedinchapters2and3arepresentinalmostallmajorcitiesinsome,atlevelsthatmayhaveacriticalimpactonhealth.
Governmentsandindustriesaremakingmajoradvancesineffortstofindalternativestoozone-destroyingCFCsandhalons,forexample(seeAhmed1994b).Withafewsalientexceptions,however,developingcountrieshavebeenrelativelyslowtoincorporatenewproductsandtechnologies.
Theinactioninmostdevelopingcountriesisnottheproductofignorance;mostdevelopingcountriesrecognizetheneedtotakecorrectivemeasurestomanageairpollution.Theyareunabletoactbecauseofcompetingclaimsforlimitedresourcesandbecausemanylegislatorsandpolicymakersmisperceivetheextentoftheproblem,therelativecostsofamelioration,andthedangersofinaction.
Sincemorethan50percentofallairpollutantsareemittedbyindustrializedWesterncountries,itisfortunatethatthesecountrieshaveboththefinancialandtechnicalresourcestoimplementsuccessfulpollutioncontrolstrategies.ThatsuchstrategiesarehavinganeffectisindicatedbythedownwardtrendsinSO2,suspendedparticulatematter,andleadlevelsinthesecountries.Meanwhile,however,pollutionlevelsindevelopingregionsareincreasing.OfparticularconcernistheworseningairpollutioninpopulousdevelopingareasinLatinAmerica,China,India,andSoutheastAsia.Itisestimatedthatbytheyear2000,everyotherpersonwillbeanurbanresident,andoneinthreepersonswillliveinacityofatleast100,000people.Eightoutof10peoplewillliveinadevelopingcountry.
Airpollutionhasnoboundaries,andemissionsintheIndiansubcontinentorAfricacouldultimatelyaffecttherestoftheworld.Airqualitymanagementwillrequiretheexperienceandtechnical
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expertiseaswellasfinancialassistanceoftheindustrializedworldandwouldinthelongrunbenefitbothdevelopedanddevelopingcountries.Forthesereasons,itisusefultoexaminesomebasicaspectsofaprogramtoadaptairqualitymanagementtothepresentandemergingneedsofdevelopingcountries.
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4AmbientAirQualityandEmissionStandardsInmostdevelopingcountries,formulatinganairqualitymanagementprogramgenerallyhasalowerprioritythanimplementingprogramstopromotehousing,generateelectricpower,orprovidesocialservices,education,andmedicalcare.Countrieswithlimitedfinancialmeansmustmakedifficulteconomicandpoliticalchoicesabouthowtoallocatetheirresources,andgenerallytheypursueprogramsthatwillshowthemostvisibleresults.Giventheirprioritiesandconstraints,thedevelopingcountriesmaynotbeabletoimplementthesamecleanaircontrolsastheindustrialcountriesintheshortormediumterm.Butnocountrydevelopedordevelopingcanaffordtoignoretheneedforprogramstoachieveminimumlevelsofcleanair.ThischapterdiscussescurrentandproposedairqualitystandardsinvariousdevelopedanddevelopingcountriesandreviewsthestandardsproposedbytheWorldHealthOrganization(WHO).
AirQualityStandards
Measurements
Theharmfuleffectsofanairpollutantaredeterminedinpartbyitsvolumeconcentrationandbyitsdurationintheatmosphere.Partspermillion(ppm)isthestandardmeasureofthevolumeofairpollutants;partsperhundredmillion(pphm)andpartsperbillion(ppb)areusedforverylowconcentrations.(1ppmisequivalentto10(-4)percent;theoxygencontentinairis20.946percent,equalto209,460ppmbyvolume.)Theothermeasureofvolumeisfoundedonweightperunitvolume,andtheunitsarerepresentedasmicrogramspercubicmeter(µg/m3).Thismeasurementisassociatedwithppmat25°C(77°F)andoneatmospherepressure(BellomoandLiff1984:2627).
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Differenttechniquesareusedtomeasureairpollutantconcentrations.Thesetechniquesrangefromsimplemeasuringprocedurestocomplexsimulationsthattracedispersedpollutantsthroughtimeandspace.Computerprogramsareavailablethatcanpredictlevelsofemissionsunderdifferentconditions.
TypesofStandards
Airqualitystandardsareintendedtopreventconcentrationsofairpollutantsfromreachingharmfullevels.Twostandardsarewidelyused.Emissionstandardspertainto
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pollutantscomingfromspecificsourcessuchasindustrialsmokestacksandmotorvehicleexhaustsystemsandspecifyallowableconcentrationsofpollutantsatreleasesites.Ambientstandardsareconcernedwiththeoverallairqualityofacommunityorindustrialareaandspecifyallowablepollutantconcentrationsinsuchareas.Emissionstandardsmakeitpossibletoidentifyspecificsourcesofairpollutionandtodesigncorrectiveactions.Ambientstandardsaredefinedwithanadequatemarginofsafetytopreventharmtohumanbeingsandtheenvironment.
Ambientairqualitystandardsareoftensubdividedintoprimaryandsecondarystandards.Theprimarystandardsareintendedtoprotecthumanhealthandhaveamarginofsafety;economicandtechnicalfeasibilityaredisregarded.Primarystandardsalsoestablishdeadlinesforcompliance.Secondarystandardsrefertoenvironmentaleffectsandareintendedtoprotectoverallorlong-termhumanwelfare.Theypertaintovisibility,soil,water,vegetation,domesticanimals,wildlife,materials,property,transportation,andeconomicissues.Secondarystandardscanbeattainedatamoreleisurelypace.
AmbientAirQualityStandards
Table4.1givesambientairqualitystandardsinselectedcountries.ThosegivenfortheUnitedStatesareprimarystandardsandarebasedonworkbytheEPA,otherregulatoryagencies,andindustry.BrazilandIndonesiahaveambientairqualitystandardsthatareverysimilartothoseoftheUnitedStates,anditisnotapparentwhetherthesestandardsweresetindependentlybyBrazilandIndonesiathemselvesorsimplyechotheU.S.standards.
ChinaandIndiaestablishedambientairqualitystandardsin1982.UnlikeJapan,theUnitedStates,andseveralEuropeancountries,whichhavenationwidestandards,ChinaandIndiahaveambientstandardsthatvaryinregionswherelivingconditionsdiffer.Because
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oftheircomplexity,thesestandardsaregiveninseparatetables(Tables4.2and4.3).ThelimitssetforheavilypollutedareasinChinaarethreetimesashighasthelimitssetfornaturalconservationareas.ThestringencyofIndia'sstandardsvarieswithregionaldesignationsmadebyStatePollutionControlBoardsonthebasisoflanduseandotherfactors.TheClassIIstandardsinChina,andthosepertinenttoregionsdenoted"B"inIndia,typicallyconcernresidentialandcommercialregions.ApartfromIndia'sparticulatestandards(whicharelessstringent)andChina'scarbonmonoxidestandards(whicharemorestringent),thesestandardsdonotvarygreatlyfromthestandardsinJapan,Sweden,andtheUnitedStates,andcanbeconsideredadequatetosafeguardpublichealth.
Table4.4furnishesambientairqualityvaluesgivenbytheWorldHealthOrganization.Thesevaluesareguidelinesratherthanstandards.Theysignifythelevelandexposuretimeatwhichnodetrimentaleffectsareanticipatedandbelowwhichthereisnoexpectedhazardtothehealthofpeople.Anoteofcautioniswarranted,sinceguidelinesareprovidedonlyforindividualpollutants;exposuretoamixtureofpollutants(noneofwhichbyitselfexceedstheguidelines)mayhavedetrimentaleffects.
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Table4.1ComparativeAmbientAirQualityStandardsof14Countries/EconomiesandTwoInternationalOrganizations
Pollutant: TSPg SO2 CO NOx LeadConcentration: µg/m3 ppm ppm ppm ppm µg/mSamplingtime: 24hours 24hours 8hours 1hour (seenotes) (seenotes)
Brazila 240 0.14 9.0 0.08 0.25HMiChilea 260 0.14 9.0 0.08 0.16DMjIndonesiab 260 0.10 20.0 0.10 0.05DMj 60.024hr.Japanc 100 0.04 20.0 0.06 0.040.06DMjKoreac 300 0.15 20.0 0.1 0.15HMiKuwaitc 350 0.06 10.0 0.08 0.05DMj 2.024hr.Malaysiac 260 0.04 9.0 0.10 0.17HMi 3.0QAMexicod 275 0.13 13.0 0.11 0.21HMiPeruc 350 0.30 17.0 0.20(30min.) 0.11DMj 15.0MASaudiArabiac 340 0.15 9.0 0.15 0.35HMiTaiwanc 250 0.10 9.0 0.12 0.25hmn 1.0MMThailande 330 0.11 17.0 0.10 0.17hmn 10.024hr.Turkeyf 300400 0.15 0.16DMj 2.0AAMUSAc 260 0.14 9.0 0.12 0.05AAMo 1.5QAEECf 300 0.15 2.0AAMWHOd 150230 0.04 9.0 0.10 0.05(8hours) 0.51.0Note:=notavailable.;µg=1x10-6gm;mg=1x10-3gm;ppm=partspermillion;µg/m3=ppmx40.91xMW,whereMW=molecularweight;(H=1,C=12,N=14,O=16,S=32);SO2=sulfurdioxide;NOx=nitrogenoxide.aWeitzenfeld(1992).bSinha(1989).cMurley(1991).dFaizandothers(1990).e1994WorldBankdata.fSebastian(1990).gTotalsuspendedparticulates.hPhotochemicaloxidants(ozone).iHourlymaximum.jDailymean;meanconcentrationnottobesurpassedbyanydailymean.kQuarterlyaverage(3months).
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kQuarterlyaverage(3months).lMonthlyaverage.mMonthlymean:themathematicalmeanvalueofeachdailymeanvalueobtainedinamonth.nHourlymeanvalue.oAnnualarithmeticmean.
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Table4.2China'sNationalAmbientAirQualityStandards(µg/m3)Pollutant Averagingtime Firstclassa Secondclassb ThirdclassTSP Dailymeand 150 300 500
Notoncee 300 1000 1500Flydust Dailymeand 50 150 250
Notoncee 150 500 700SO2 Annualdailymeanf 200 600 100
Dailymeand 50 150 250Notoncee 150 500 700
NOx Dailymeand 50 100 150Notoncee 100 150 300
CO Dailymeand 4000 4000 6000Notoncee 10,000 10,000 20,000
O3 Hourlymean 120 160 200Note:µg=1x10-6grams;TSP=totalsuspendedparticulates;SO2=sulfurdioxide;NOx=nitrogenoxides;CO=carbonmonoxide;O3=ozone.aNaturalconservationareas,scenicspots,historicalsites,andconvalescentplaces.bResidentialareas,mixedareasofbusiness,culturalareas,historicalsitesinrelevanturbandevelopmentprograms,andopenareas.cCities,towns,andindustrialareashavingseriousairpollutionproblems,aswellasurbantrafficcentersandmainroads.dMeanconcentrationlimitnottobesurpassedbyanydailymean.eConcentrationlimitnottobesurpassedevenonceinsamplinganddetermination.fMeanconcentrationlimitnottobesurpassedbyanydailymeaninanyyear.Source:Faizandothers(1990).
Table4.3India'sAmbientAirQualityStandards(µg/m3)Pollutant Averagingtime AreaAa AreaBb AreaC
TSP 8-houraverage 500 200 100SO2 8-houraverage 120 80 30CO 8-houraverage 5,000 2,000 1,000NOx 8-houraverage 120 80 30O3Note:=notavailable;µg=1x10-6grams;TSP=totalsuspendedparticulates;SO
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Note:=notavailable;µg=1x10-6grams;TSP=totalsuspendedparticulates;SOsulfurdioxide;NOx=nitrogenoxides;CO=carbonmonoxide;O3=ozone.aIndustrialandmixedareas.bRuralandresidentialareas.cSensitiveareas.Source:Siddiqi(1984).
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Table4.4WorldHealthOrganizationGuidelinesforAmbientAirQualityStandardsPollutant Samplingtime Standard
Particulatematter Annualmean 4060µg/m3b,d98percentilec 100150µg/m3b,dAnnualmean 6090µg/m3b,d98percentilec 150230µg/m3b,d
Thoracicparticles(PM10)a 24hours 70µg/m3bSO2 Annualmean 4060µg/m3b,d
98percentilec 100150µg/m3b,d10minutes 500µg/m31hour 350µg/3
CO 15minutes 100mg/m330minutes 60mg/m31hour 30mg/m38hours 10mg/m3
NO2 1hour 400µg/m324hours 150µg/m3
Lead Annualmean 0.51.0µg/m3Photochemicaloxidants(O3) 1hour 150200µg/m3
8hours 100120µg/m3PAHs n.a. NoguidelinesyetNote:n.a.=notapplicable;µg=1×10-6grams;mg=1×10-3gm;SO2=sulfurdioxide;NO2=nitrogendioxide;CO=carbonmonoxide;O3=ozone;PAHs=polynucleararomatichydrocarbons.aUNEPandWHO(1992).bValuesgivenareforthecombinedeffectofSO2andsuspendedparticulatematter.Thesefiguresmaynotbeapplicablewhenonlyonecompoundispresent.cOfthedailymeans,98percentneedtobebelowthisconcentration.dStandardestablishedforblacksmoke.Source(exceptasnoted):UNEPandWHO(1988).
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EmissionStandards
Anemissionstandardisalegallimitonthequantityofapollutantanindividualsourceisallowedtoemit(Tietenberg1992:372).Emissionstandardshavebeensetbymostindustrializedcountriestocurbpollutionfrombothstationaryandmobilesources.Stationarysourcesusuallyinvolvepowergenerationandindustrialprocesses.Themanydifferentmanufacturingprocessesmayemitdifferenttypesofpollutants.Hence,emissionstandardsareindustry-andsite-specific.Althoughmobilesourcesemitmanyofthesamepollutantsasstationarysources,theiremissionsaremoredifficulttocontrol,anditismoredifficulttotailoremissionratestolocalpollutionpatterns.Thesedifficultiesmaybeattributedtotheintrinsicallytransientnatureofvehiclesourcesevenwithinametropolitanareaandtothepossibilitythataparticularvehiclewilltraveltomanydifferenturbanandruralareasduringitsusefullife(Tietenberg1992:450).Mobilesourcesarealsomorenumerousthanstationarysources,addingtothedifficultyofcontrollingtheiremissions.
Transport-RelatedEmissions
Thetransportationsectorisasignificantcontributortoairpollution.Forexample,emissionsfromtransportationsourcesinFrancein1990accountedforabout76percentofemissionsofCO,69percentofHCs,56percentofNOx,30percentofparticulates,21percentofSOx,and80percentoflead(Faiz1993).Motorvehiclesarethelargestcontributorsofmobile-sourceemissions(seeTable4.5).
Table4.5TransportSectorContributiontoNationwidePollutantEmissionLevelsinFrance,1990
(%oftotalanthropogenicemissions)Modeoftransport CO HC NOx SPM SOx
Motorvehicles 76 69 48 26 8Railways .. .. 1 1 ..Aviation(withinairports) .. 1
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Coastalnavigation .. .. 7 3 12(NorthSeaandMediterranean)
TOTAL 76 69 56 30 21..=Lessthan1percentcontribution.=notavailable.Source:AdaptedfromFaiz(1993).
Table4.6givesthecontributionofthetransportsectortoconventionalairpollutantemissionsinselectedcountries.ThebulkofanthropogenicCOemissionsisfromthetransportsectorincluding58to85percentinOECDcountries,above90percentintheMiddleEast,andbetween50and60percentinthetropicalAsiancountries.
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Table4.6TransportSectorContributiontoAirPollutantEmissionsinSelectedCountriesPercentageattributabletotransport
Country Year CO HC NOx SOxOECD
Canada 1985 66 40 64 3USA 1988 67 33a 41 4Austria 1986 58 87 72Finland 1980 80 60 50France 1990 76 69a 48 21Germany 1986 74 52 61 5Greece 1985 32 55 3Ireland 1983 81 55 33 4Italy 1985 82 56 43 7Netherlands 1987 80 87 59 7Switzerland 1984 73 27 74 6U.K. 1985 75 40 48 3
EasternEuropeHungary 1987 99 39 2Poland 1988 40 37 33 3U.S.S.R 1988 66 40 29Estonia 1989b 73 56 1
MiddleEastandAsiaIsrael 1988 99 100 52 4Kuwait 1987 96 76 26 0.1SouthKorea 1987b 25 57 85 8Taiwan 1988b 46 53 50 14Malaysia 1988b 50 95 36 1Thailand 1982b 60 46 23 15
=notavailable.Note:ForamoredetailedlookatthetrendinemissionsandthecontributionoftransporttopollutantemissionsseeFaiz(1993):170-71.PM=particulatematter.aVolatileorganiccompounds,excludingmethane.bPercentageattributabletotransportappliesonlytomotorvehicles.
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Source:Faiz(1993).
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HydrocarbonemissionsfromthetransportsectorinOECDcountriesrangefrom30to87percent,andinnon-OECDcountriesfrom37to100percent.Thedeveloping-countryshareissomewhathigher(46to100percent)becausethehigheraveragetemperaturesinmanydevelopingcountriesincreasetheamountofevaporativeemissions.
NOxemissionsfromthetransportsectorareapproximatelythesameinbothOECDandnon-OECDcountries.WiththeexceptionoftheUnitedStatesandCanada,NOxemissionsincreasedduringthe1980sinbothdevelopingandindustrializedcountries.
Thetransportsector'sroleinSOxemissionsinOECDandEasternEuropeancountriesis,withtheexceptionofFrance,generallylowbecauseofthelowsulfurcontentoffuelintheseregions.SOxemissionsarehigherindevelopingcountriesbecauseofthehighersulfurcontentoffuelandgreateruseofdieselfuelinpassengertransport.(Sulfurcontentisinexcessof0.6percentbyweightindevelopingcountriesand0.3percentbyweightintheUnitedStates.)TheproportionofSOxfromthetransportsectorinFranceishighbecauseofdrasticreductionsinSOxemissionsfromothersources,suchascoal-andoil-firedindustrialderivatives.(NuclearenergyisalargesourceofpowerinFrance.)
Thenatureofparticulatesandthevariationsinthemethodologiesusedtoobtainparticulateemissionsinventoriestendtomakecomparisonsofparticulatesamongcountriesunreliable.Ingeneral,thetransportsectorintheOECDcountriesemitsmoreparticulatematterthandothemorerigorouslycontrolledstationarysources(Faiz1993).
GasolineVehicles
Themid-1970ssawtheintroductionofmotorvehicleemissioncontrolprogramsinmajorindustrializedcountries,butthestandardsdiffered
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fromcountrytocountry.Table4.7showsemissionstandardsforgasoline-poweredvehiclesintheUnitedStates,Japan,andtheEuropeanCommunity.UntilquiterecentlytheUnitedStateshadthemoststringentstandards.Switzerland'sbecameasstringentin1988,Sweden'sin1989.
ItislikelythattheemissionstandardsgiveninTable4.7willbeunachievableinmanydevelopingcountries,sincemeetingthemwouldrequiremodernizingvirtuallyallexistingvehicles.However,severaldevelopingcountrieshaveintroducedstringentemissionstandardsfornewvehiclesandsomewhatrelaxedrequirementsforin-usefleets.Forexample,Brazil,Mexico,Taiwan,Thailand,andKoreaareamongdevelopingcountriesthathaveadoptedbothmobile-andstationary-sourceemissionstandards.TheexhaustemissionstandardsadoptedbyBrazilforbothalcohol-andgasoline-poweredvehiclesandbyMexicoforgasoline-poweredvehiclesaregiveninTables4.8and4.9,respectively.Thesearereasonableemissionstandardsfordevelopingcountries.
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Table4.7ExhaustEmissionStandardsforGasoline-PoweredLight-DutyVehiclesinSelectedIndustrializedCountries(g/km)
Country Year CO HC NOxUnitedStatesa 1980 5.6 0.25 1.2
1992 2.1 0.25 0.6By1995 2.1 0.16 0.25By2003 2.1 0.08 0.125
Japanb* 1975 2.7 0.39 1.21978current 2.7 0.39 0.48
EECc,** ByJuly1992f 2.72# 0.97g,#AfterJanuary1993f
ByJuly1992f 3.16## 1.13g,##AfterJanuary1993f1996proposed 2.2 0.5g
Swedend After1988 2.1 0.25 0.620.76Australiae 1986 9.3 0.9 1.9Switzerlande 1987 9.3 0.9 1.2
1988 2.2 0.21 0.62Canadae 1987 2.1 0.25 0.62=notavailable.*Testprocedureusedwasthe10-modetestcycle;standardsgivencorrespondtomaximumlimits.**ThisisaConsolidatedDirective(91/441/EEC)givingemissionstandardsforallnewvehiclesbelow2.5metrictons,ofwhateverfuelandenginetype,boughtintheEC.(Particulatelimitsnotgivenastheyarenotapplicabletogasolinevehicles.)#Typeapprovallimits.##Conformityofproduction.Note:g/km=gramsperkilometer.Foreachpollutantatypeapprovallevelisdefinedfornewvehiclemodels,asisaconformityofproductionlevelagainstwhichasampleofvehiclesfromagivenproductionrunischecked.aMageandWalsh(1992).bWatkins(1991).cOECD/IEA(1993b):145-54.dEconomicCommissionforEurope(1991:35).eOECD(1988).fAllnewmodelsoflight-dutyvehiclesarerequiredtomeetthislimitbyJuly1992
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fAllnewmodelsoflight-dutyvehiclesarerequiredtomeetthislimitbyJuly1992andallnewcarsafterJanuary1,1993.gHC+NOx.
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Table4.8Brazil'sEmissionStandardsforGasoline-andAlcohol-PoweredLight-DutyVehicles(g/km)
Typeofemission Year CO HC NOx RCHOExhaust 19891991 24.0 2.1 2.0
19921993 12.0 1.2 1.4 0.15March1994 12.0 1.2 1.4 0.15January1997 2.0 0.3 0.6 0.03
Evaporative 19891991 6.0(g/test)19921993 6.0(g/test)bMarch1994 6.0(g/test)bJanuary1997 6.0(g/test)b
=notavailable.Note:g/km=gramsperkilometer;g/test=gramspertest.aOnlyforalcohol-fueled,light-dutyvehicles.bExpressedaspropaneforgasohol,orcorrectedtoethanolforalcoholvehicles.Source:Walsh(1993c:4143).
Table4.9Mexico'sEmissionStandardsforGasoline-PoweredMotorVehicles(g/mile)Description HC CO
1989cars,notrucks 3.20 35.21990cars 2.88 28.8GVWupto6,012poundsa 3.20 35.2GVW6,013to6,614poundsb 4.80 56.01991cars 1.12 11.2GVWupto6,012poundsa 3.20 35.2GVW6,013to6,614poundsb 4.80 56.01992cars 1.12 11.2GVWupto6,012poundsa 3.20 35.2GVW6,013to6,614poundsb 3.20 35.21993cars 0.40 3.4GVWupto6,012poundsa 3.20 35.2GVW6,013to6,614poundsb 3.20 35.21994cars 0.40 3.4
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GVWupto6,012poundsa 1.00 14.0GVW6,013to6,614poundsb 1.00 14.0
Note:GVW=Grossvehicleweight.aCommercialvehicles(e.g.,NissanvanandCombis).bLight-dutytrucks.Source:MageandWalsh(1992).
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Diesel-PoweredVehicles
Diesel-fueledmotorvehiclesareontheriseinmanydifferentpartsoftheworld.Sincemillionsofpeopleareexposeddailytodieselfumes,emissionstandardsfordieselvehiclesareimperative.Theindustrializedcountrieshaveattemptedtocontroldieselparticulatesbysettingrisingstandards,amongothermeasures.Tables4.10and4.11presenttheexhaustemissionstandardsforlight-andheavy-dutydieselvehicles,respectively,intheUnitedStates.Table4.12givesthestandardsforheavy-dutydieselvehiclesinEurope.
StandardsforSulfurContent.In1990theU.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgencyannouncedplanstoreducethesulfurcontentofdieselfuelsby80percentfrom0.25wt-%to0.05wt-%effectiveOctober1,1993(''EPAIssues1993andLater:DieselSulfurRegulations"1990).Mexico,aspartofanongoingprogram,loweredthesulfurcontentofdieselfuelto0.1wt-%.AlthoughTaiwan'sdieselfuelpresentlycontains0.5wt-%ofsulfur,itproposestoreducesulfurcontentto0.3wt-%by1993andtotheU.S.standardof0.05wt-%by1997.Brazil'sdieselfuelcurrentlyhasasulfurcontentofabout1wt-%,butattemptsarebeingmadetointroducea0.5wt-%sulfurdieselfuelincitybuses(Walsh1993a:9,1617).Ageneraltrendtowardloweringthesulfurcontentinfuelisapparent,atleastincountrieswherethisisfinanciallyandtechnologicallyfeasible.Reductionofsulfurinfuelwillreducedieselexhaustemissions'contributiontotheproductionofsulfurdioxide.
LimitsonParticulateEmissions.Controlofparticulatesfromdieselfuelhasgainedincreasedimportanceovertime.Thefirstdiesel-fuelparticulatestandardswereestablishedbytheEPAin19800.6g/mileforallcarsandlight-dutytruckscommencingwithmodelyear1982.Thestandardwasloweredto0.2g/mileforcarsin1985andto0.26g/mileforlight-dutytrucksbeginningin1987(Walsh1993a:2).
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CanadaadoptedtheU.S.dieselparticulatestandardsof0.20(0.13g/km)and0.26g/mile(0.16g/km)forautomobilesandlight-dutytrucks,respectively,in1985.SwedenalsoadoptedtheU.S.standardforparticulateemissionsforautomobiles.
InAustriathemaximumpermissiblelimitforparticulateemissionsis0.6g/mile(0.38g/km),butbothAustriaandSwitzerlandareexpectedtoadoptU.S.light-dutytruckstandardsinthenearfuture(Walsh1992d).TheEuropeanCommunity(EC)decidedinJune1991toadoptstandardsforallnewmodelsofbothgasolineanddiesellight-dutyvehicles,commencinginJuly1992,ofnomorethan4.35g/mile(2.72g/km)ofCOandamaximum1.55g/mile(0.97g/km)ofvolatileorganiccompounds(VOCs)andNOxcombined,andfordieselvehiclesamaximumemissionof0.22g/mile(0.14g/km)ofparticulates.ConformityofProductionlimitsareasfollows:CO5.06g/mile(3.16g/km),VOCandNOxcombined1.81g/mile(1.13g/km),andfordieselvehiclesaparticulatelimitof0.29g/mile(0.18g/km)(OECD/IEA1993b:149).
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Table4.10U.S.EmissionStandardsforLight-DutyDieselVehicles(g/mile)Modelyear VOC CO NOx Particulates
1981 0.41 7.0 2.019821986 0.41 7.0 2.0 0.619871994 0.41 7.0 2.0 0.219941996limitstobephasedin:
First50,000miles 0.25 3.4 0.4 0.08Second50,000miles 0.31 4.2 0.6 0.1
From2004 0.125 1.7 0.2 0.08Note:g/mile=gramspermile.Light-dutyvehiclesincludecars,taxis,vans,andlighttrucks(lessthan3.5metrictonsinEuropeandlessthan3.9metrictonsintheUnitedStates).Source:OECD/IEA(1993a):136.
Table4.11U.S.EmissionStandardsforHeavy-DutyDieselVehicles(g/BHP-hr)Modelyear HC CO NOx Particulates
1983 1.3 15.5 10.7 0.61990 1.3 15.5 6.0 0.61991 1.3 15.5 5.0 0.251991(buses) 1.3 15.5 5.0 0.101994 1.3 15.5 5.0 0.101994(buses) 1.3 15.5 5.0 0.05a1998 1.3 15.5 4.0 0.1b2004 1.3 15.5 3.0 0.1cNote:Unitsareingramsperbrakehorsepower-hour.Heavy-dutyvehiclesincludegoodsvehiclesandbusesexceeding8,500pounds(3.9metrictons).aOr0.07if0.05g/BHP-hrprovesnotfeasible.bFederalproposal.cCaliforniaproposal.Source:OECD/IEA(1993c):119.
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Table4.12CurrentHeavy-DutyDieselPollutantLimitsinEurope(g/kWh)Country CO HC NOx Particulates
SwitzerlandStep1(October1989)andAustriaStep1(January1988)
8.4 2.1 14.4
SwitzerlandStep2(October1991)andAustriaStep2(October1991)
4.9 1.23 9.0 0.7
Sweden93MY(A-30)andNorway(October1993) 4.9 1.23 7.0 (0.35or0.40)
ECStep1(1992) 4.5 1.1 8.0 0.63(<85kW)
Typeapproval0.36(>85kW)
Conformityofproduction (4.9) (1.23) (9.0) (0.7)(<85kW)
(0.4)(>85kW)
SwitzerlandStep3 (4.9) (1.23) (9.0) (0.4)ECStep2(1995)(AlsolikelySwissStep4)
4.0 1.1 7.0 0.15
ECStep3(2000)orlater Newtestpossible
Note:g/kWh=gramperkilowatthour.Heavy-dutyvehiclesincludegoodsvehiclesandbusesofmorethan3.5metrictons.Source:Walsh(1992d).
TheU.S.CleanAirActandAmendments
TheU.S.CleanAirActof1970,asamended,establishedemissionstandardsfordifferenttypesofvehiclesforCO,HC,andNOx;authorizedtheEPAtoestablishregulationsforfuelqualityforconventionalandalternativefuels,performancestandardsforvehiclesusingalternativefuels,andemissionstandardsforvehiclesnotregulatedbytheAct;andauthorizedtheEPAtoestablishNationalAmbientAirQualityStandards(NAAQS)fordesignatedpollutants(CO,NOx,ozone,particulatematter,SOx,andlead)thatwouldensuretheprotectionandenhancementofthecountry'sairresources.
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ensuretheprotectionandenhancementofthecountry'sairresources.
TheCleanAirActAmendments(CAAA)of1990tightenedrevisionstothe1970Act(CleanFuelsLegislationDirectory1994)bytighteningpollutioncontrolmeasuresincitiesthatwerenotcomplyingwithfederalairqualitystandards,makingchangesinfuelspecifications,andendorsingtheuseofalternativefuelsinareaswiththeworstairqualityproblems(seeTable4.13forasummaryofthefuelprovisionsoftheCAAAof1990).Morestringenttailpipeemissionstandardswereestablished,anduseofcleanerfuelsingasolineanddiesel-poweredvehicleswasstipulated.Theamendmentsrequiredbasicreformulationofpetroleumfuels,reductionofsulfurlevelsindieseloil,andlimitationsonbenzeneandaromaticsingasoline,loweringofvaporpressure,andadditionofoxygenates.TheEPAissuescleanfuelrequirementsandemissionsstandardsunderTitleIIoftheCAAA(CleanFuelsLegislationDirectory1994).
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Table4.13U.S.FuelSpecifications19922000,BasedonU.S.CleanAirActAmendmentsof1990
Fuelsprovision Effectivedate
Amendments
OxygencontentinCOnonattainmentareas(moderateandserious)
11/1/92 2.7wt-%minimumaverageoxygencontentfornolessthanfourwintermonths
IffederalairqualitystandardforCOhasnotbeenachievedbyaspecifiedattainmentdate,minimumoxygencontentwillincreaseto3.1wt-%
Oxygencontentinozonenonattainmentareas
1/195 2.0wt-%minimumaverage
Aromaticscontent 1/1/95 25vol-%maximumBenzene 1/1/95 1.0vol-%maximumLead 1/1/95 Prohibitedtomanufacture
1/1/96 Illegaltosellgasolinewithleadorleadadditivesforhighwayuse
Additives 1/1/95 Required,fordepositcontrolAirtoxics 1/1/95 15%reduction
2000 20%reductionVOCs 1/1/95 15%reduction
2000 25%reduction;ifEPAdecidesitistoocostlyorisnotfeasible,then20%reduction
NOx NoincreaseinNOxOzonenonattainmentareasaffectedbyrequirement
1/1/95 Ninecities(with1989ozonedesignvalueof0.18ppmorgreater)with"opt-in"provisionforothermoderateorseriousozonenonattainmentareas.
Reidvaporpressure(Rvp)Summer1992
9.0psiforallgasoline
Summer1992
10psiforgasolinewitha10%orgreaterethanolcontent,whichisgranteda1.0psiwaiverofRvpstandard.
Sulfur(diesel) 10/1/93 0.05wt-%maximumCetaneindex(diesel) 10/1/93 40minimumNote:VOCs=volatileorganiccompounds.Forimplementationpurposes,the1990CleanAirActAmendmentsdefineanareaaseithera"nonattainmentarea"oran"attainment
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AirActAmendmentsdefineanareaaseithera"nonattainmentarea"oran"attainmentarea."AreasinviolationoftheNationalAmbientAirQualityStandards(NAAQS)forozoneorcarbonmonoxideorparticulateemissionsbecome"nonattainmentareas."Source:AdaptedfromOECD/IEA(1993a:138)andCleanFuelsLegislationDirectory(1994:4144).
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The1990legislationcallsfora2.7wt-%minimumaverageoxygencontentfornolessthanfourwintermonthsinallgasolinessoldinbothmoderateandseriousCOnonattainmentareas,risingto3.1wt-%inallCOnonattainmentareasifthestandardisnotmet.A2.0wt-%minimumaverageoxygencontentisrequiredforthenineworstozonenonattainmentareasbythebeginningof1995.Citieswithalessseriousproblemmaychoosetoadopttherequirementsthen.Benzenecontentislimitedto1.0vol-%andaromaticsto25vol-%.Allheavymetaladditivesareprohibited;leadandmanganesearementionedspecifically.
MostindustrializedcountrieslooktotheUnitedStatesasaleaderinestablishingstandardsforairqualityandcontrolofharmfulemissions.OtherOECDcountrieseventuallyadoptedtheU.S.airqualitystandardsestablishedin1970.ThismayindicatethatOECDcountrieswilladoptthe1990changesaswell.However,futuregasolineanddieselspecificationsandformulationsnowconsideredessentialintheindustrializedcountrieswillrequireamajorrestructuringofrefineriesinthosecountries.Ifthedevelopingcountriesaretoadoptthesamestandards,evenatareducedpace,similarmajorinvestmentsinrefineriesmayberequired.
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5ValuationoftheBenefitsofMitigatingAirPollutionDevelopingcountriesmustmakechoicesinallocatingresourcestomeetmanypriorities,includinghealth,education,reductionofpoverty,andprotectionoftheenvironment.InThailand,Mexico,Taiwan,Indonesia,andKorea,recentandrapideconomicgrowthhasprovidedtheresourcesneededtoimproveenvironmentalquality.Inmanyoftheleast-developedcountries,however,suchresourcesmaynotbesoavailable.Nonetheless,countriesthatproducemoregoodsandservicesanduseincreasingamountsofenergyintransportationareboundtoproducemorepollutionandwillhavetotakeearlyanddecisive,ifnotcomprehensive,stepstoaddresstheproblemorriskcontinuingdegradationoftheenvironment.Forthesecountries,implementingthenecessaryenvironmentalmeasuresmayrequiretheassistanceofinternationalagencies.
Onewaycountrieswhatevertheirstageorrateofdevelopmentcanjustifyandplanforenvironmentalprotectionisbymakingeffortstoquantifyfactorsaffectingenvironmentalqualityandestimatetheireconomiceffects.Thisisacomplexexercise,inasmuchasthecostsareprimarilyintheformofadversehealthimpactsanddonotlendthemselvesreadilytoquantification,andadequateenvironmentaldataareoftenlackingindevelopingcountries.Moreover,applicationofvaluationmethodologiesrequireshighlyspecializedskills.Mostdevelopingcountrieswilllikelyfindthetasksofevaluationandameliorationdauntingbothinfinancialandmanagerialterms.Thismakesitallthemoreimportanttomakerealisticassessmentsofenvironmentalproblemsandtodevelopaffordableprogramsthatcanbecarriedoutinorderoftheirnetbenefits.
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Thisreportdoesnotattempttosetenvironmentalorsocialprioritiesfordevelopingcountries.Suchanexercisemustbebasedonmoreextensivestudiesandinanycasewillhavetooriginatewithinthespecificcountriesthemselves.Instead,thechapteraddressesoneofthefoundationsofairqualitymanagementevaluatingthebenefitsofmitigatingairpollutionassociatedwithincreasesinindustrialoutput,energyuse,andtransportation.Includedareamethodologyforestimatingenvironmentalbenefitsaccruingfromthereductionofvariouspollutantsanddiscussionofthelimitsofcurrentenvironmentalprotectionmethods.Toillustratethebasisforvaluingbenefits,the
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chaptersummarizessomerecentWorldBankresearchonthepotentialhealthbenefitsofimprovingambientairqualityinBangkok,Thailand.
AHealth-BenefitsModel
Reductionsinconcentrationsofambientairpollutantswillreduceexposureofthepopulationtopollutantsandthusreduceacuteandchronicillness,thecostsofmedicalservices,andprematuremortality.Theywillalsoincreaseproductivityandimprovethequalityoflife.Asocietythatbenefitsfromimprovementsinairqualitywillnormallybeexpectedtopayforthesebenefits,butfullcostrecoveryisnotfeasibleformostdevelopingcountries.Forexample,althoughareductionofsulfuremissionsfromdieseloilusedinpublictransportwouldhavemajorbenefits,thecostisveryhigh,andthelowincomepeoplewhoarethelargestusersofpublictransportcouldnotabsorbitallifitwerepassedontothemintheformofincreasedpassengerfares.Eveninthedevelopedcountries,increasesinthecostofaproductorservicewillultimatelyhaveanimpactoneconomicactivity.Hence,itisimperativethatappropriatecriteriaareadoptedtomeasurethehealthbenefitsofreducingvariouspollutantsandthatairpollutionmanagementprogramsaredevelopedinacost-effectivemanner.
Twocomplementaryapproachesaregenerallyusedtoestimatetheimpactsofpollutiononhealth.Wherewell-establishedrelationshipsareavailablethatlinkconcentrations(orexposures)tohealthimpacts(dose-responseorconcentration-responsefunctions),aswithairpollutantssuchasSPM,lead,SO2,andozone,thesefactorscanbecombinedwithdataonambientairqualityoremissionstoderiveestimatesofmortalityandmorbidity(Ostro1994;Krupnickandothers1992).Inthiscase,ahealth-benefitsmodelisusedtocalculatetheeconomicvalueoftheresultingmortalityandmorbidityeffects.
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Wheredose-responserelationshipsarenotwellestablished,aswithCO,onepossibleapproachistoestimatethepopulationatrisk.
Thehealth-benefitsmodelisbasedonthedamage-functionapproachtoestimatingbenefits.Beginningwithbaselinedataandprojectedchangesintheconcentrationofspecificpollutants,dose-responsefunctionsfromepidemiologicalandpopulationdataareusedincalculatingchangesinavarietyofhealthendpoints.Theeconomicvalueofthesebenefitsisthenestimated,basedonhealthbenefitsfrompublisheddata.Themodelaggregatesthebenefitsassociatedwithprojectedchangesinpollutantconcentrations.Eachofthesecalculationsisperformedusingstatisticalandjudgmentalconfidenceintervalsonthecoefficientsofthedose-responseandvaluationfunctions.Theresultingrangesofimpactsandbenefitsarepropagatedusingthecrudebutcommonapproachofmultiplying"low"healthimpactestimatesby"low"values,"high"impactsby''high"values,and"expected"impactsby"expected"or"best"values.
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TheCaseofThailand
SummaryDataandKeyFindings
Applicationofthehealth-benefitsmodelisillustratedina1994WorldBankstudyonThailandthatanalyzesthepotentialhealthimpactsofa20percentreductionofambientconcentrationsofvariouspollutants.Tables5.1through5.4showtherangeandbestestimatesofthehealthimpactsassociatedwithsuchachangeinBangkok.Table5.5summarizestherangeofhealthbenefitsofsuchareduction.
Table5.1Bangkok:EstimatedImpactsonMorbidityandMortalityof20PercentReductioninAmbientConcentrationsofSPM
ReductioninnumberofcasesperyearHealthimpacts Low Mid High
Restrictedactivitydays 3,300,000 5,330,000 8,370,000Emergencyroomvisits 3,120 34,600Asthmaattacks 322,000 5,800,000 51,300,000Chronicbronchitisinchildren 863 78,600 156,000Chroniccoughinchildren 537 90,700 181,000Respiratoryhospitaladmissions 3,450 14,900Respiratorysymptomsdays 159,000,000 200,000,000 251,000,000Mortalityreductions
SchwartzandDockery(1992a)-SPM 152 405SchwartzandDockery(1992b)-SPM 459 761
Note:SPM=suspendedparticulatematter.Source:1994WorldBankdata.
Table5.2Bangkok:EstimatedImpactsonMorbidityandMortalityof20PercentReductioninAmbientConcentrationsofLead
ReductioninnumberofcasesperyearHealthimpacts Low Mid High
ReductioninIQpointsinchildren 16,000 26,700Hypertensioninadultmales Nonegiven 9,500 NonegivenCoronaryheartdiseaseeventin10year Nonegiven 677 Nonegiven
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MortalityreductionsNeonatalmortality Nonegiven 4.27 NonegivenAdultmalemortality(in12years) Nonegiven 846 Nonegiven
Source:1994Worldbankdata.
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Table5.3Bangkok:EstimatedImpactsonMorbidityof20PercentReductioninAmbientConcentrationsofSO2
ReductioninnumberofcasesperyearHealthimpacts Low Mid High
Coughingbychildren 15,900 152,000 288,000Chestdiscomfortinadults 6,630 169,000 331,000Source:1994WorldBankdata.
Table5.4Bangkok:EstimatedImpactsonMorbidityof20PercentReductioninAmbientConcentrationsofO3
ReductioninnumberofcasesperyearHealthimpacts Low Mid High
Minorrespiratory-relatedrestrictedactivitydays 32,400 239,000 489,000Anysymptom-day 762,000 1,930,000 3,090,000Asthmaattacks 16,200 59,300 101,000Eyeirritationdays 1,790,000 2,430,000 3,070,000Coughingdays 436,000 1,060,000 1,700,000Coughincidents 5,110,000 8,830,000 13,000,000Shortnessofbreath 3,390,000 7,600,000 11,800,000Discomfortinchest 3,170,000 6,490,000 9,940,000Source:1994WorldBankdata.
Table5.5SummaryofHealthBenefitsof20PercentImprovementinAirQualityinBangkok
Pathway:impact Total($million) Healthbenefits(1989)percapita(s)Particulates:mortality 1381,315 18169Lead:mortality 302309 3940Lead:morbidity 68 0.81Sulfurdioxide:morbidity 0.2 <0.1Ozone:morbidity 936 15
TOTAL 7463,138 96402Source:1994WorldBankdata.
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Themodelsuggeststherangesofbenefitsfromreductionofdifferentairpollutants.Therangesindicatetheuncertaintiesinherentinsuchanexercise.Theestimatesareindicativeoftheorderofmagnitudeofexpectedbenefits,andthelowlevelsshowexpectedminimumbenefits.Yetdespitesuchlimitations,thestrikingfeatureoftheseestimatesisthatthehighestbenefitswouldcomefromreductionsinconcentrationsofSPMandlead.Thus,thelowestimatesofbenefitsfromreducingleadexceedthehighbenefitsofreducingambientSO2orozone.ThedisparityinbenefitsreflectsthemuchhigherambientlevelsofparticulatesandleadrelativetoSO2andozone.Moreover,exposuretothesehighlevelsofSPMandleadcausesdeath,makingreductionofthesepollutantsfarmorevaluablethanreductionsoftheillnessesthatresultfromexposuretoSO2orozone.
LimitationsoftheModel
Threefeaturesofthemodel,however,maylimititsvalue.Thesepertaintotheprocessoftransferringthedose-responseandvaluationfunctionsdevelopedinonecountrytoanother.
ProblemsinTransferabilityofDose-ResponseFunctionsfromDevelopedtoDevelopingCountries.First,althoughthedose-responsefunctionsarerecentandemploystate-of-the-artstatisticalandsurveytechniques,theywereestimatedforspecificregionsoftheUnitedStates.ThemostseriousdifficultyinapplyingthemtoBangkokisthattheepidemiologicalstudiesonwhichtheyarebasedalsoinvolvedtheUnitedStates.Thesestudieslinkchangesinambientconcentrationstohealtheffects,withanassumedlinkbetweentheamountofapollutantactuallyinhaledbyapersonduringagivenperiodanditsambientconcentration.Totheextentthatpeopleactuallybreathemorepollutedairperperiod(exposureordose)forgivenambientconcentrationsofpollutants,theseepidemiologicalstudiesunderestimatetherelationshipindevelopingcountries.Thatis,thereisgoodreasonto
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believethatexposuretoairpollutantsinBangkokaswellasinthemetropolitanareasofmostdevelopingcountriesishigherbecausepeoplespendagreateramountoftimeonthesidewalksandstreetsandinopenvehiclesthaninU.S.cities(particularlyLosAngeles,thesiteofanumberoftheepidemiologicalstudies).Furthermore,morepeopleindevelopingcountriesliveclosertotrafficarteries.Finally,inferiorhousingandlessuseofairconditioningmeanthatthediffusionofairfromoutdoorstoindoorsmaybegreaterincitieslikeBangkok.
Theproblemsinextrapolatingdose-responsefunctionsarealsoexacerbatedbythepotentialforinaccuracyinestimatingthepredictedhealthimpactscausedbythefactthattheaveragepersoninBangkokislesshealthythantheaveragepersonintheUnitedStates.Lesshealthypersonsaremoresusceptibletopollution-induceddiseases,soadose-responsefunctionforacitylikeBangkokmaybesignificantlysteeperthanonefortheUnitedStates.
ProblemsinBalancingInformationfromLaboratoryandEpidemiologicalResearch.Asecondlimitationisthattheseestimatesexcludethehealthimpactsofairpollutionthathavebeenfoundinlaboratoryandtoxicologicalresearchbuthaveyettobe
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reproducedinepidemiologicalstudies.Note,forexample,thattheeffectsofSO2onhealtharerelativelysmall.ThisisaconsequenceoftheprevailingviewthatparticulateeffectssurpassthoseofSO2wheneverthetwopollutantsaretreatedtogetherinstatisticalanalysis.TheeffectsofSO2throughitstransformationtoacidaerosolscannotberuledout,however,becausethesesulfatesarecountedasparticulates.Thus,somefractionofthebenefitsfromreducingparticulatesinBangkokcouldprobablybeattributedtoreductionsinSO2throughassociatedreductionsinsulfates.
SkewingofDatabyLimitsinSampling.Third,itmaybequestionedaswellwhetherthequalityofthedataresultsinanoverestimationofhealtheffects.Themonitorsusedtogatherdatawerelocatedindensedowntownareasandthereforemayoverestimateeffectsonpeoplewholiveandworkinoutlyingareas.ThismaybeparticularlytrueforleadandSPM,butlesssignificantforozoneconcentrations,whichdispersemorebroadly.Arelatedissueiswork-lossdays,whichagainwerederivedfromU.S.data.AbsenteeratesaregenerallythoughttobelowerinThailandthanintheUnitedStatesbecauseofgreaterpenaltiesimposedonworkersforabsenteeism,soworkdayslostthereforemightbefewerinBangkok.
Notwithstandingitsshortcomings,themodeldoesofferarational,asopposedtoasubjective,basisforevaluatinghealthbenefits.Ideally,ifnewbenefitsmodelsweredevelopedthatmorecloselysimulatedtheconditionsindevelopingcountries,amorerealisticandpreciseassessmentofbenefitscouldbemade.Thedevelopmentofcountryorregion-specificmodelswouldentailsubstantialtimeandcosts.Withcarefuladjustmentoftheinputdata,however,thecurrentmodelcouldbeavaluablebasisfordesigninganairpollutionmanagementprogram.
RelevancetoDevelopingCountries
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Themethodologyandthehealth-benefitsmodeldiscussedinthischapterareapplicabletoallcountries,providednecessarychangesaremadeintherelevantcoefficients.ThehealthbenefitsintheThailandstudyassumedareductionof20percentinambientpollutionconcentrations,irrespectiveofwhethertheseconcentrationsexceededpermissiblelimits.Fordevelopingcountries,thepermissibleconcentrationlevelsestablishedbytheWHOaresound.Controlstrategieswouldbedesignedtoaddresspollutantsthatarealreadyatornearthesafelimitsandlikelytoexceedtheselimitsintheforeseeablefuture.
Beforeamajorairpollutionmanagementprogramisputinplace,thevalueofitsbenefitsmustbeassessed,asinthecasestudyofThailand.However,dataonambientpollutionconcentrationswillhavetobeextrapolatedtocoveraperiodofatleast15years,usingamodellinkinggrowthinemissionswithambientairquality.Epidemiologicaldatacoveringaslongaperiodaspossibleshouldbeusedtoidentifymajororchronichealthproblems.Valuationofbenefitsmusttakecognizanceofallthesefactors.
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6OptionsforMitigatingAirPollutionPreviouschaptershaveexaminedtheenvironmentalandhealthimplicationsofvariousairpollutantsandthebenefitsofreducingambientairpollution.Thediscussionhasstressedthatevaluationmodelsmusttakecarefulaccountofthedifferencesintheeconomicandepidemiologicalcontextsofdevelopedanddevelopingcountries.
Similarspecificityisnecessaryinselectingoptionsformitigatingairpollutionbecauseofthevaryingprofilesofpollutionsourcesindevelopedaswellasindevelopingcountries.Inbothdevelopedanddevelopingcountries,themainsourceofurbanairpollutionisthetransportsector.Insomedevelopingcountries,however,industryisalsoakeyurbanairpolluter.Thedifferenceisattributabletothefactthatwhereasdevelopedcountrieshaveforsometimetendedtolocateindustrialplantsawayfromthecentersofcities,developingcountrieshaveallowedandevenencouragedindustriestoclusteraroundpopulouspolitical,commercial,andbankingcenters.Forexample,theBangkokmetropolitanregionaloneencompassessome73percentofThailand'smanufacturingindustries,contributingmorethan50percentofgrossdomesticproduct(GDP).Similarly,largecitiesinMexico,thePhilippines,India,Indonesia,andKoreaallcontainhighconcentrationsofheavyindustries.Hence,mitigatingairpollutioninthecitiesofmanydevelopingcountrieswillrequirelimitingemissionsfrombothstationaryandmobilesourcestolevelsthatwouldnotcollectivelypushconcentrationsofpollutantspastsafelimits.Choosinganyspecificstrategywillrequireabasicappreciationoftheoptionsforreducingbothstationaryandmobilesourceemissions.
OptionsforReducingStationary-SourceEmissions
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Developingcountriesalmostuniversallyperceiveindustrializationasthekeytoeconomicprosperity.Duringthelastdecadeinparticular,theyhaveprovidedliberaltaxincentivesfornewindustriesandinsomecasesdismantledurbanandenvironmentalregulationsthatwereconsideredasimpedimentstotheflowofinvestmentcapital.Thebroadeffectofsuchpolicieshasbeentodrawhigh-pollutingindustriesfromdevelopedtodevelopingcountriesand,concomitantly,toacceleratethedeteriorationoftheambientairqualityofmanycitiesinthedevelopingworld.Ifthistrendistobearrested,developing
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countrieswillneedtoidentifyandpursueoptionsforreducingemissionsfromexisting,relocated,andnewindustries.Someofthemoreattractiveoptionsarediscussedbelow.
SwitchingtoNaturalGas
Switchingtocleanerfuelsisoneofthemostcost-effectivestrategiesforreducingemissions,particularlyofSO2andCO2.Thecleanfuelofchoiceisnaturalgas.Korea,whichhasnoreserves,importsnaturalgasforusebyindustriesandinpowerplants.Naturalgascontainsvirtuallynosulfur,andburningitalsoproducesfarlessNOxthancoalorfueloil.Sincenaturalgashasahigherhydrogentocarbonratio,itproducesfarlessCO2,agreenhousegas,thaneithercoalorfueloil.Acombined-cyclepowerplantusingnaturalgasproduces55percentlessCO2thanacoal-firedpowerplantperunitofelectricityproduced.
UsingLow-SulfurCoal
Low-sulfurcoalisanotherfueloptionfordevelopingcountriesdespiteitsenvironmentaldrawbackscomparedwithgas.Ifhigh-quality,low-sulfurcoalcanbeimportedatareasonableprice,newtechnologiessuchascoalwashing(whichcanreducethesulfurcontentofhigh-qualitycoalfrom50percentto20percent)maymakecoalaviableoption.Also,newcombustiontechnologiescanreduceNOxemissionsbyabout50percent.Useoffluidized-bedcombustionorintegrated-gasification/combined-cyclepowergenerationatnewplantshasalsoresultedinsubstantialSO2andNOxcontrol.
Scrubbingofstackgasesfromcoal-firedpowerplantsreducesbothSO2andNOxemissions.Thecostsarehigh,however,especiallyforretrofittingoldplantswithscrubbers.Anotherdrawbackofscrubbersisthattheyproducelargequantitiesofsludgeandlow-gradegypsumwastethatmustbedisposedof.Butscrubberscanremoveabout95percentoftheSO2andbetween70and90percentoftheNOx
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producedbycoalcombustion(formoredetail,seeTavoulareasandCharpentier1994).
EncouragingandPracticingConservation
Energyconservationoptionsincludemodernizationofexistingplants,includinginstallationofwasteheatrecoveryequipmenttogeneratesteamorasprocessheat,andimprovementsinefficiency.Identifyingtheseoptionsandtheireconomicandenvironmentalbenefitsrequiresmajorstudiesofexistingfacilities,buttheinvestmentsarerelativelymodestandthebenefitssubstantial.
ExploitingAlternativeEnergySources
Alternativeenergyoptionsincludehydro,wind,solar-thermalandphotovoltaicpower,geothermal,nuclear,andhydrogen.Nuclearpowerandhydropowerarethemostcommonoptions.Manydevelopingcountrieshavedevelopedtheirhydropowerpotentialtoasubstantialextent.Useofnuclearpower,exceptinKorea,hasnotprogressedmuchbecauseofsafetyandenvironmentalconcernsaswellasthelargecapitalrequirements.Forcurrentdataonpromisingrenewableenergyoptions,seeAhmed(1994a).
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OptionsforReducingMobile-SourceEmissions
Optionsforreducingairpollutionfrommobilesourcesincludereplacingoldvehicles,maintainingin-usevehiclesmoreeffectively,usingalternativecleanerfuels,reformulatingfuels,improvingtrafficmanagement,expandingmasstransitsystems,andimprovingroadandhighwaycapacity.Theseoptionsareexploredbrieflybelow.
ReformulatingFuels
Substantialworkhasbeendoneintheindustrializedcountriesonthereformulationoftransportfuelstoreducepollutantemissions.Someofthemoreindustriallyadvanceddevelopingcountrieshavealsoembarkedonsuchprogramsdespitetheircapital-intensity.Abriefintroductiontofuelsreformulationfollows.
Gasoline.Themainpollutantsemanatingfromgasolinearelead,aromatics,benzene,carbonmonoxide,andhydrocarbons.WhencatalyticconvertersweredevisedtoreduceemissionsofCO,HCandNOx,itthenbecamenecessarytoremoveleadfromgasolineaswellbecauseleaddeactivatesthecatalystintheconverter.Theobjectatthattimewasnottoprotecthumanhealth;theharmfuleffectsofleadbecameanissueonlylater.Inaninitialefforttocompensatefortheoctanelosscausedbytheremovaloflead,U.S.refiners,inparticular,increasednaphthareformingcapacityasawaytoincreasehigh-octanearomaticsandbenzenecontentofgasoline.Then,whentheU.S.EPArestrictedthearomaticsandbenzenecontentofgasoline,refinershadtomakeadditionallargeinvestmentstocompensatefortheconsequentlossinoctane.
Currently,severaltechnologicaloptionsareavailabletocompensateforleadloss.Ifreformingaloneisinadequate,isomerizationoralkylationprocessescanbeused.SomeU.S.citiesthosedesignatedasCOorozonenonattainmentareasarenowrequiredduringthewinter
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monthstoaddoxygenatestogasoline;thesehelptocompletethecombustionprocessandboostoctane.Methyltertiarybutylether(MTBE)istheoxygenateofchoice.
Ingeneral,developingcountriesconsumerelativelysmallquantitiesofgasoline,andhencethetotalamountofleadreleasedisalsolow.Regulationsmandatingremovalofleadthusmaynotbeofhighpriorityinsuchcontexts,particularlybecausetheinvestmentsneededtoreformulategasolinetocompensateforleadlossarehigh.Itmustberemembered,however,thatleadcanhaveseriouseffectsonhumanhealth.Thus,anydecisionregardingthepermissiblelevelofleadmustbemadeaftercarefulevaluationofthelikelyimpactofchange.Ifthereisanyevidencethatleadisaproblem,itsremovalshouldhavethehighestpriority.
Diesel.Mostdevelopingcountries,areheavyconsumersofdieseloil.ReformulatingdieseloilbyreducingitssulfurcontentwilldecreasetheemissionsofSO2andconsequentlyofsulfatesthatcontributetoelevatedconcentrationsofSPM.Inaddition,reductionintherefiningprocessoftheheavierhydrocarbonfractionsindieseloilbyreducingthetemperatureatwhich90volume-percentofthedieseloilisdistilled(therebyeliminatingagreaterproportionoftheSPM-formingdieseloilcomponents)will
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decreasetheformationofSPM10micronsorlessindiameter.Thecostofreformulatingdieseloilishigh,butbecausedemandfordieseloilishighandtheambientSPMconcentrationsarealsohigh,reformulationofdieseloilwilllikelymerithigherpriorityindevelopingcountriesthanreformulationofgasoline.
UsingAlternativeFuels
Liquefiedpetroleumgas(LPG)andcompressednaturalgas(CNG),whereavailable,canbecost-effectiveandenvironmentallybeneficialoptionsformanydevelopingcountries.However,theiradoptionastransportationfuelshasbeenslow,primarilybecauseoftheirlimitedavailabilitycomparedwithgasolineanddieseloil.
LimitingVehicleEmissions
Twootheroptionsareend-of-tailpipecontrols,suchascatalyticconvertersthatreduceexhaustemissions,andvehicleemissionstandards:
Catalyticconverters.Thetwotypesofcatalyticconverterscommonlyinuseareoxidationortwo-waycatalysts,whichreduceCOandHCemissions,andoxidation/reductionthree-waycatalyststhatcontrolNOxemissionsaswell.Formanydevelopingcountriescatalyticconvertersarenotahighpriority.Theycanaddabout$600tothecostofamediumsizecar(whichisabout3to5percentofthepriceofsuchavehicle)andsubstantiallyincreasethecostoflargervehicles.
Emissionstandards.ExperienceinOECDcountrieshasshownthatemissionstandards,ifenforced,cansignificantlyreduceairpollution.Effectiveinspectionandmaintenanceproceduresmustalsobeestablishedandimplemented.Thisisdifficultformostdevelopingcountries,otherthanfornewvehicles.Suchstandards,however,areimperativeforpublictransitvehicles.
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ImprovingRoadInfrastructure
Congestedurbanroadsaresignificantsourcesofurbanairpollutioninallcountriesparticularlyduringpeakhours,whentrafficslowstoacrawl.Yetdevelopingcountriesinparticularoftenfindthatimprovingtheirroadinfrastructuretorelievetheproblemisnearlyimpossiblebecausetheirmetropolitanareashaveoftenexpandedsohaphazardlyastomakesignificantroadcapacityimprovementsalogisticandeconomicnightmare.Improvingroadinfrastructureisalsocostlybothintermsofcapitalrequirementsandtimetakentoimplementprojects,butwhenitispossible,itshouldtakeprecedenceoverothercapital-intensiveoptions.
EnhancingTrafficManagement
Alesscostlyapproachtorelievingtrafficcongestionisbyenhancingtrafficmanagement.Theurbanareasofdevelopingcountriesareplaguedbylargenumbersofvehiclesoninadequateroads,lackofsufficientparkingfacilities,undisciplineddrivers,frequentvehiclebreakdowns,andpoorlydesignedtrafficmanagementplans.Improvedpracticesformanagingtrafficcouldreducecongestionsignificantlyindeveloping
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countries.Animprovedplancouldincludesuchincentivesanddisincentivesasrestrictinguseofmainarteries,encouragingcarpooling,providingincentivestousepublictransport,improvingpublictransitsystemsorestablishingnewones,taxingcarsenteringcitylimits,andimposingsteeperparkingfees.
Disincentivessuchastaxationandincreasedvehicleorparkingfeesarelikelytobeunpopular.Therefore,majorpublicrelationseffortsmayberequiredtoeducatepeopleabouttheconsequencesoftrafficcongestionandairpollution.Withoutatrafficmanagementstrategy,developingcountrieswillseecontinuedincreasesinmotorvehicleusenegateairqualitygainsfromotherprograms.Trafficmanagementandroadimprovementsthusshouldbestudiedsimultaneously,andbothshouldhavehighpriorityinanystrategytoreduceairpollution.
DevelopingMassTransit
Masstransitsystemsarehighlycapitalintensive,andtheyareunlikelytoyieldaprofitunlesstheirconstructionandoperationaresubsidizedbythestate.Arecentstudyof20masstransitsystemsimplementedinrecentyearsindevelopingcountriesfoundthatnoneofthemwasprofitableinpurelyeconomicterms(Allportandothers1990).However,hadhealthbenefitsbeenfactoredintothisassessment,thesystemswouldlikelyhaveshownaneteconomicbenefit.Carefulproposalevaluationthatincludesthehealthbenefitscouldthereforeprovidejustificationforneededstatesubsidies.
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7TowardanAirQualityManagementProgramAsthisreporthasargued,theimportanceofmaintainingambientairqualityatacceptablelevelscannotbeoveremphasized.Thereporthasdiscussedthesourcesandcausesofdifferentpollutants,thespecificimpactofemissionsonambientconcentrationsofairpollutants,andtheresultingadversehealthandenvironmentalimpacts.Theneedtomitigatethedetrimentaleffectsofpollutantsisbeyonddispute.Yetbecausetheeffectsofabatementmeasuresoftentakesometimetobecomeevident,theircostsandbenefitsareseldomfullyappreciated.Theresultisfrequentlyapolicyof''benign"inactionthatenduresuntilpollutionbecomesunbearableandirreversible.Thathashappenedinmanycities,perhapsmostnotablyinMexicoCityandBangkok.Unfortunatelyfordevelopingcountries,theideahasbecomeprevalentthatattentiontoenvironmentalmattersmusttakeabackseattoimprovedeconomicconditions.ArecentarticleinTheEconomist("AllthatGas"1994),forexample,suggestedthatincomesmustreachanannualthresholdofUS$5,000percapitabeforeairqualityandenvironmentalissuesbegintoattractattentionandconcern.Thisnotionneednotandshouldnotbetakenasinevitable.
Thischapteroutlinessomeessentialstepsneededtodevelopacost-effectiveandtimelyairqualitymanagementprogram.Manyofthedetailsofsuchprogramsmustbedecidedanddevelopedatthenationallevelineachcountryandcannotbedetailedhere.Butanumberofvitalcommonrequirementscanbeidentified.Hence,thechapterfocusesondevelopmentofanappropriatelegalframework,adequateinstitutionalarrangements,andsufficientmanpowerresourcestoensureproperdesignandcontinuityofprograms.Italsostressestherequirementsforevaluatingtheentirerangeofoptionsand
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forcreatingintegratedprograms.Clearly,concertedeffortsbytheinternationalcommunityarealsonecessarytosupporttheadaptationandimplementationofairqualitymanagementprogramsinthedevelopingworld.
LegalFrameworkandInstitutionalArrangements
Pollutionisdirectlyrelatedtoindustrialandeconomicactivity,andenvironmentalproblemswillincreasewithdevelopmentregardlessofacountry'spercapitaincomelevels.Themosteffectiveabatementprogramsthusmustproceedinvirtuallockstep
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withtheexpansionofindustrialandeconomicactivities.Putanotherway,itishardlyevertooearlyinthedevelopmentcycletoestablishenvironmentalstandards,regulatorymeasures,andframeworksforcomplianceandenforcement.Theneededstandardswillcoverambientairqualitylevelsaswellasemissionlevelsfrommobileandstationarysources.Atthesametime,inawell-conceivedand-executedprogram,economicactivitieswillbedesignedfromthegroundupsothatpollutionemissionsonaregionalornationalbasisdonotputthehealthofpeopleatriskorharmtheenvironmentwithinacountry'sboundariesorbeyondthem.
Ensuringahighlevelofairqualityplanning,management,andenforcementrequiresaneffectivelegalfoundationembodyingnationalvalues,laws,andprecedents.Inaddition,ifthegoalsofprovidingasafeandsalubriousenvironmentaretomovefromstatutetoreality,airqualityandpollutionmanagementeffortswillrequirestronginstitutions,competenttechnicalandmanagerialstaff,andcleargovernmentmandates.
Manydevelopingcountrieshavealreadybeguntodraftenvironmentallawsandtoestablishthenecessaryinstitutions.Yet,toooften,mitigationandcomplianceeffortsarefragmentedbyinternecinepoliticalandbureaucraticconflicts.Itisnotunusual,forexample,tofindthreeormoreinstitutionswithoverlappingjurisdictionsissuingcountervailingdirectivesandcompetingoverlimitedresources.Tosomeextent,theinvolvementandcooperationofmanyinstitutionsinmitigationeffortsisdesirableandevenessential,giventhatpollutionproblemsgenerallyhavecross-sectoralcausesandimplications.Buteffectivemanagementwilllikelyrequirethatanoverarchingresponsibilityisfirmlyplacedwithanagencygivenspecificauthorityfordeveloping,coordinating,andmonitoringenvironmentalprograms.Anagencyoragenciesshouldalsobeidentifiedasresponsibleforensuringcomplianceandenforcement.
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Ongoingmanagementofairandenvironmentalqualityarenecessarilynationalresponsibilities.RatherthansimplyadoptamodeldevelopedforacityintheUnitedStates,forexample,eachdevelopingcountryultimatelywillhavetoevolveitsownpollutionmanagementmodel,basedonitsdistinctivepatternsofeconomicgrowth,demography,geography,andpublicpriorities.This,inturn,willrequiretheresponsibleagenciestohavecompetenceinthetechnicalandpolicyaspectsofenvironmentalmanagement.Theywillneedtodevelopdispersionmodels,correlateepidemiologicaldatawithambientpollutionconcentrations,andusethisdatatodevelopcost-effectiveintegratedairpollutionprograms.
Theywillalsoneedtoquantifyandevaluatethebenefitsofincreasedproductivity,reductionsinmortality,andimprovementsinthequalityofliferesultingfromairqualityimprovementsothatthemodelcandevelopandadapttochangingprioritiesandpatternsofgrowth.Stafftrainingthusmustbeatthecoreofanyprogramtomitigateairpollution.Similarly,environmentalagenciesmustdevelopthecompetenceandinstitutionalclouttomobilizetheneededresources.
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DevelopinganIntegratedProgramtoManageAirPollution
Puttinginplaceanintegratedairpollutionmanagementprogramandmeetingallinstitutional,staffing,training,andequipmentrequirementscouldtakeadecadeormoreinmanydevelopingcountries.YetmanyareasinSouthAsia,EastandWestAfrica,andLatinAmericahavealreadyreachedcrisisornear-crisislevelsofdegradationinairquality.TheycannotaffordtowaitforadecadetocountertheilleffectsofleadandSPM.Therecommendationssketchedbelowthusareintendedtoassistcountriesinaddressingairpollutionconcernsanddevelopingstrategiesimmediately.
IdentificationoftheAirPollutionProblem
Assessment.Thestartingpointforanyabatementprogramisanaccurateassessmentofcurrentambientairquality.Ifreliabledatadonotexist,andiflocalcollectionandadequateanalyticalskillsarenotathand,specializedfirmswiththenecessaryequipmentandstaffareavailable.Ideally,airqualityatcriticalpointsshouldbemonitoredoverayeartoaccountforseasonalvariationsinwinddirection,precipitation,andtemperature.Alternatively,monitoringcanbedoneoverthreetosixmonthsifitcaneffectivelyprovidedatarepresentativeofambientairpollutionconcentrationsthroughouttheyear.Asthestudyhassuggested,themostlikelypollutantsforstudywillbeCO,CO2,NOx,SOx,SPM,HC,andlead.Analysisofthecollecteddatashouldhelpidentifyspecificpollutantsthatareabovepermissiblelevels.
ProjectionofEmissionsGrowthandDevelopmentofaModel.Theassessmentexercisemustbefollowedbyaprojectionofthelikelyfuturedimensionsoftheproblem.Thisworkshouldbeginwithassessmentsofcurrentemissionsandintegrateexpectedchangesinthelevelsofthesepollutantsoveratleasta10-yearperiod.Estimating
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thechangesinemissionswillrequireprojectionsofchangesinpassengertransportmiles,shiftsfromautomobilestomasstransportsystems,andalterationsinlikelyvehiclespeedsstemmingfromchangesinvehiclepopulationsmeasuredagainstimprovementordegradationofthetransportinfrastructure.
Emissionmodelsthatcanpredictlikelyambientconcentrationsofpollutants,basedonprojectedemissions,shouldthenbedeveloped.Thisdatacouldthenbeusedtoidentifypollutantspeciesatriskofexceedingstandards.
CorrelationwithEpidemiologicalData.Epidemiologicaldatafromhospitalsandotheragenciesshouldbethestartingpointforidentifyinglinkagesbetweenambientpollutionlevelsandchronicoracutehealthproblems.Wheredocumenteddataarenotavailable,healthrecordsofpatientsfrommetropolitanareascanbeexamined.Formonitoringpurposes,establishmentofalaboratorycapableofgauginghumanexposuresandtoxicitylevelswillberequired.Thisphaseofdatagatheringwillconstituteacriticalphaseindevelopingameaningfulairqualitymanagementprogram,innosmallmeasurebecauseitbeginstheworkofputtingahumanfaceonthedata.
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ValuationofPollutionImpactsandBenefitsofReduction.Thebenefitsofreducingpollutioncanbeprojectedclearlyonlyafteractivitiesdescribedintheprecedingparagraphshavebeencarriedout.InThailand,forexample(seechapter5),theprojectedhealthbenefitsofa20percentreductionofpollutionwerethebasisforillustratingthedimensionsoftheproblemandwinningsupportformitigationefforts.Airqualitymanagementprogramswilllikelybemostsuccessfuliftheyincludesimilarassessmentstojustifythenecessaryexpenditures.
MitigationOptionsandStrategies
Asdiscussedinthereport,airpollutionistheresultofmanyfactors.Eliminatingthesefactorsorreducingtheireffectsrequiresapplyingadvancedtechnicalskillsandsubstantialcapital.
LeadasaCaseExample.Thesophisticationrequiredforasuccessfulmitigationstrategycanbeillustratedbyadiscussionoftheproblemsinremovingleadfromgasoline(theprimarysourceofleademissionsinmetropolitanareas).Ofcourse,theleadcouldsimplyberemovedornotaddedtobeginwith,butthiswouldreducetheoctanevalueofgasoline,causingmechanicalandemissionsproblems.However,themostcommonoptionsforcompensatingforthelostoctanehavetheirowndrawbacks.Moreseverereformingofgasolineincreasesoctanebutalsoincreasesemissionsofcarcinogenicaromaticsandbenzene.Addinghigh-octane-valuelightendsalsoincreasesoctanebutatthecostofincreasingvaporpressureandhydrocarbonemissions.Evenaddingoxygenatesmaybeproblematic,assomearehighlyvolatileandtoxic.
Otheroptionsforreducingleademissionsmayrequirecomplextechnicalandsocioeconomicstrategies.Forexample,moreefficientvehicledesignswillresultinlowerconsumptionofgasoline,andamoreefficientin-cityroadandtrafficsystemwillincreasevehicle
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speed,reducegasolineconsumption,andtherebylowerleademissions.Amasstransitsystemwouldshiftautomobilepassengerstoamoreefficienttrainsystem,thusreducingtrafficcongestionandpollution.Similarly,trafficmanagementorenergydemandmanagementstrategiescanbeeffectiveinreducinggasolineconsumptionandtherebyreducingtheemissionoflead.Alloftheseoptionscutacrosssectorsandoftenrequirelarge-scaleplanningandinvestment.Inshort,manyoptionsareavailableforreducingemissionsofleadandmostotherpollutantsandeachoptionhascriticaltimeandcostfactors.
ShapeofaStrategy.Clearly,awell-designedairqualitymanagementprogrammusteffectivelyweighthemanyfactorsinvolvedinthechoiceofmitigationoptions.Themostimportantofthesefactorsarecosts,implementationtime,theepidemiologicalimpactofthedifferentpollutants,andtheexpectedbenefits.Onthebrighterside,actionstoreduceonepollutantareoftenlikelytohavethebeneficialeffectofreducingotherpollutantsaswell.Forexample,reductionoftrafficcongestion,mayreducenotonlyleadbutallotheremissionslinkedtocombustionoftransportfuels.Addressingonepollutant
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atatime,ontheotherhand,maybecounterproductiveandultimatelytooexpensive.Anintegratedandcomprehensiveapproachisneeded.
Thekeytothedevelopmentofasuccessfulprogramisitstechnicalandeconomicfeasibility.Establishingrealisticgoalsbasedondemonstrableurgencyisessentialtoobtainthefundsrequiredfromwithinacountry'sownresourcesandfrominternationalagencies.Anewmasstransitsystem,forexample,mayreducetrafficcongestion,buttheinitialcostsofsuchsystemsaregenerallyhigh,andimplementationmaytakealongtime.Moreover,aspointedoutinchapter6,areviewof20masstransitsystemsshowedthatnonewasprofitableunlessthehealthandenvironmentalbenefitswerecarefullyfactoredinastheywouldhavetobetohaveanyhopeofjustifyingthenecessarystatesubsidies.
Acomprehensiveanalysisandapproachdoesnotmeananattempttosolveallproblemssimultaneously.Suchanapproachislikelytobesocomplexandexpensivethatitstopstheprogramaltogether.Amorepracticalstrategyistosetcoreprioritiesbyrankingpollutantsinorderoftoxicity,adversehealtheffects,andresultingcoststotheeconomy.Thisallowsplannerstoidentifysecond-orthird-stageactivitiesforimplementationaseconomicconditionsimproveorastheadverseimpactsofotherpollutantsbegintoincrease.
RoleofInternationalAssistance
Establishingrigidnationalorinternationaltargetsorstandardswithoutappropriateprogramstoachieveobjectiveswouldbeasfruitlessasdictating,say,thatacountryshouldsimplydoubleitsGDPinayear.Internationalagenciescanplayafruitfulrolebyprovidingtechnicalassistancetohelpcountriesdevelopenvironmentalmanagementprograms.Sustainedmitigationeffortsmustremainanationalresponsibility,butinternationalagenciescanhelpcountriesidentifyandfulfilltheirinstitutional,staffing,training,equipment,and
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laboratoryrequirements.
Intheinitialstageofinternationalassistance,priorityobjectivesmayincludeestablishingprogramstomeasureambientairquality,developingepidemiologicaldata-gatheringsystems,establishingstandardsforambientairquality,identifyingcurrentandlikelyfutureairpollutionproblems,developingmodelstomeasuretheimpactofemissions,establishingtargetsforpollutionreduction/containment,andvaluingthepotentialbenefitsofreducingpollutionandthecostsofinaction.
AnencouragingprecedentforsucheffortsistheMexicoCityairpollutionprogram.Inthiscase,WorldBankstafftooktheleadroleandcalledonassistancefromothertechnicalspecialistsandeconomistsasrequired.Amonitoringpanelwasalsoformedtoreviewtheworkofthespecialists.Theresultingprogramhasbecomeabasisforseveralsimilarprogramsinothercountries.Mostdevelopingcountrieswillrequiresimilarteamefforts,evenifnotonthescaleoftheMexicoCityprogram.
Althoughdevelopingcountriesaccountformorethan60percentoftheworldpopulation,theycurrentlyaccountforlessthan30percentoftheworld'semissionsof
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greenhousegases.Butifmitigationmeasuresarenotestablished,theirsharewillsoonexceedthatofthedevelopedcountries.Greenhousegasesfromdevelopingcountrieswillalmostdoublewithin10years.Itisthusclearlyintheinterestofbothdevelopedanddevelopingcountriestocontainorreversethegrowthofgreenhousegasemissions.
Internationalfinancialassistancemayberequiredtobuildairpollutionmitigationmeasuresintoexistingprojectsortoincorporatethemintonewprojects.Generally,projectswillnotbeabletoabsorbthesignificantadditionalcosts,andtheeffectofpassingtheincreasesontoconsumers(particularlyforfuelssuchasdiesel,whosepriceaffectsprimarilylow-incomeconsumers)couldbesociallyandpoliticallydisastrous.Confrontedbydomesticunrest,governmentsinseveraldevelopingcountrieshavealreadyhadtoretreatfromplanstoeliminateconsumerenergysubsidiesortoimplementfullycost-reflectiveenergytariffs.
Concessionaryfundingarrangementsmaybeanessentialtoolinanefforttopromoteabatementandminimizecosts.Sucharrangementswouldlikelyrequirecountriestohaveintegratedairqualitymanagementprogramsthatcaptureallfactorscontributingtoairpollutionandrankoptionsformitigation.Fromtherankingwouldflowmutualdecisionsregardingfundingofmitigationactivitiessuchashighwayimprovement,fuelsreformulation,trafficmanagement,andsoon.Ofcourse,systematicmitigationeffortsareamajorundertaking,evenifsubsidized,andthedetailsoffinancing,management,andimplementationinvitesubstantialfurtherdiscussion.
Itremainsclearthatacloserrelationshipbetweencountriesandinternationalagenciesonhowtocombatairpollutionisneeded,andthatresults-oriented,integrated,airqualitymanagementshouldreceivehighpriorityintheplansofalldevelopingcountries.
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Ultimately,integrationofalllocalairqualitymanagementeffortswillbeessentialifglobalproblemssuchasgreenhousewarming,acidrain,andozonedepletionaretobebroughteffectivelyundercontrol.
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GlossaryAcidrain:RainfallthathasapHlessthanabout5.6,thevalueobservedwhenpurewaterissaturatedwithatmosphericcarbondioxide.Acidraintypicallycontainssulfuricacid,nitricacid,orboth.
Aerosol:Asuspensionoffinesolidorliquidparticlesingasorair,suchassmoke,fog,andmist;also,theparticlesthatmakeupthissuspension.
Airquality:Ambientpollutantconcentrationsandtheirtemporalandspatialdispersions.
Aldehydes:AnorganiccompoundcontainingtheC=Ogroup,generallyrepresentedas&obc:,whereRmaybeanaliphatic(q.v.)oraromatic(q.v.)compound.
Aliphatics:Agroupofstraightchainedhydrocarbons.Typicalaliphaticsareethanol,methanol,propane,andformaldehyde.
Ambientairquality:Theexistingstateoftheatmosphericpollutioninanoutdoorarea.
Ambientstandards:Thosestandardsconcernedwiththeoverallairqualitysurroundingacommunityoranindustrialarea;theseareusuallysetataleveldeemedsufficienttoprotectpublichealth.
Aromatics:Agroupofcyclicallystructuredhydrocarbonsofwhichbenzeneistheparent.Theyarecalledaromaticsbecausemanyoftheirderivativeshavesweetaromas.Thesehydrocarbonsareofrelativelyhighspecificgravityandpossessgoodsolventproperties.Certainaromaticshavevaluableanti-knock(octane)characteristics.Typicalaromaticsarebenzene,toluene,andxylene.
Benzene:Apurearomatichydrocarbon(q.v.)ofcharacteristicodor
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occurringinsignificantproportionsincertainFarEasterncrudeoils.
Catalyst:Asubstancethataffectstherateofareactionwithoutbeingusedupitself.
Catalyticconverter:Adevicebuiltintotheexhaustsystemofanautomobilecontainingacatalystgenerallymadeupoffinelydividedplatinum(Pt),rhodium(Rh),andpalladium(Pd),whichconvertscarbonmonoxide(CO)tocarbondioxide(CO2);unburnedhydrocarbonstoCO2andwater(H2O);andnitrogenoxide(NO)tonitrogendioxide(NO2),nitrogen(N2),andoxygen(O2).
Chlorofluorocarbons:ThesecompoundsarealsoknownasfreonsandconsistofCFCl3andCF2Cl2.Mainlyusedasrefrigerants,theyareasourceofchlorineatomsintheupperatmosphere.
CleanAirAct:U.S.Congressionalactsandamendmentstopromoteimprovementsinairquality.
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Conformityofproduction:Thisreferstothetestingofsamplevehiclesfromaproductionruntodeterminewhetherthevehiclesmeetestablishedemissionsstandards.
Dispersion:Themannerinwhichatmosphericpollutantsareconveyedanddilutedbywindandturbulentmixing.
Dollars:AllpricesandcostsinthisreportareexpressedinU.S.dollars.
Effluent:Pollutantmaterialsdischargedintotheenvironment.
Emissionrate:Therateatwhichpollutantsarereleasedfromanexhaustsystem.
Emissionstandards:Standardsforpollutantsfromspecificsources,suchassmokestacks,ventilationsystems,andautomotiveexhaustsystems.Itisalegallimitontherateofsuchemissions.
Globalpollutants:Damagecausedbyglobalpollutantsisevidencedworldwide(e.g.,throughglobalwarming).Thegreenhousegases,whichincludecarbondioxide,nitrousoxide,methane,ground-levelozone,andchlorofluorocarbons,areoneclassofglobalpollutants.
Greenhouseeffect:Theabsorptionofoutgoinginfrared(IR)radiationbywatervaporandcarbondioxide,whichtherebyraisestheearth'stemperature.
Hydrocarbons:Materialscomposedentirelyofcarbonandhydrogen.Thecarbonatomsmaybeinlinear(aliphatic)orring(aromatic)formations.
Inspectionandmaintenance(I/M):AU.S.emissionstestingandinspectionprogramimplementedinnonattainmentareas(q.v.)toensurethatvehiclesmeetemissionsstandards.
Inversion(thermalinversion):Areversalofthenormalatmospheric
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temperaturegradientwherethetemperatureincreaseswithaltitude.
Localpollutants:Theseincludelead,sulfuroxides,particulatematter,carbonmonoxide,ground-levelozone,andnitrogendioxide.Damagecausedbythemisevidencedinthevicinityofemissions.Alocalpollutantmayalsobearegionalpollutant(q.v.).
Naphtha:A"cut"coveringtheendofthegasolinerangeandbeginningofthekerosenerange.Itisfrequentlyusedasafeedstockforreformingprocessesandisalsoknownas"heavybenzene"or"heavygasoline.''
NationalAmbientAirQualityStandards(NAAQS):PollutantstandardsdevelopedbyU.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgency.
Nonattainmentarea:Anareathathasnotmetorisunlikelytomeetnationalambientairqualitystandards.
Octanenumber:Thisisameasureofgasoline'santi-knockvalue.Thehighertheoctanenumber,thehighertheanti-knockqualityofgasoline.
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Ozone:Abluishirritatinggasofpungentodor.ItisanallotropicformofoxygeninwhichthemoleculeisO3.
Photochemicaloxidants:Toxicgases,mainlycolorless,thatareproducedinthepresenceofsunlightfrominteractionofhydrocarbonsandnitrogenoxides.Ozone,formaldehyde,peroxylnitrate,acrolein,andperoxybenzoicnitrateareexamples.
Photodissociation:Dissociation(asofNOx)undertheinfluenceofradiantenergy.
Pointsource:Asingleoriginofemissionsstationedatafixedpoint.
Pollutant:Acontaminant,orforeignspecies,presentinasample;usuallyhasadeleteriouseffectonqualityofsampleasfaraslivingthingsareconcerned.
Primarypollutant:Achemicalcontaminantemitteddirectlytotheatmospherebyasource.
Primarystandard:ThisisaspecificationsetbytheNationalAmbientAirQualityStandards(q.v.)toprotecthumanwelfareandhealth.
Reforming:Aprocessinwhichstraight-runfeedstocks(e.g.,naphtha)aresubjectedtohightemperaturesandpressureswiththeobjectofchangingtheirchemicalstructureinsuchawayastoincreasetheiroctanenumber(q.v.).
Regionalpollutants:Regionalpollutantsaresulfuroxides,nitrogenoxides,andozone.Aregionalpollutantmayalsobealocalpollutant(q.v.).Damagecausedbyregionalpollutantsoccursatsignificantdistancesfromtheemissionpoint.
Secondarypollutant:Atmosphericcontaminantsformedbychemicalprocesses,suchashydrolysis,oxidation,andphotochemicalreactions.
Smog:Smokyfogcontainingharmfulspecies,suchassulfurdioxide
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(SO2),sulfurtrioxide(SO3),nitrogendioxide(NO2),andozone(O3).
Stratosphere:Theupperportionoftheatmosphere,from10to50kmabovetheearth'ssurface.
Troposphere:Theportionoftheatmospherebetweentheearth'ssurfaceandthestratosphere.
Ultravioletradiation:Lighthavingawavelengthgreaterthanabout10nmbutlessthan400nm.
Volatileorganiccompounds:Reactivehydrocarbonsemittedbyfossil-fueledmotorvehicles,evaporationofsolventsandgasoline,chemicalmanufacturing,petroleumrefining,andtoalesserdegreefromwastedisposalsitesandwastewatertreatmentplants.
Wavelength:Acharacteristicpropertyoflight,similartoitscolor,andequaltothelengthofafullwave;oftenexpressedinnanometers(nm).
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