![Page 1: Alcohol Availability & Alcohol Consumption: New Evidence from Sunday Sales Restrictions Kitt Carpenter (UC Irvine) & Daniel Eisenberg (University of Michigan)](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022032313/56649e405503460f94b31d82/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Alcohol Availability &Alcohol Consumption:New Evidence from Sunday Sales Restrictions
Kitt Carpenter (UC Irvine) &
Daniel Eisenberg (University of Michigan)
Comments welcome ([email protected])
![Page 2: Alcohol Availability & Alcohol Consumption: New Evidence from Sunday Sales Restrictions Kitt Carpenter (UC Irvine) & Daniel Eisenberg (University of Michigan)](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022032313/56649e405503460f94b31d82/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Motivation Large body of evidence in economics
and public health that links alcohol availability and alcohol consumption.
Availability as measured by: Prices, taxes Age restrictions Proximity to liquor stores
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Our Paper: Sunday Sales Policies All states allow alcohol to be purchased
on Sundays for on-premise consumption (e.g. at bars & restaurants).
States and provinces vary as to whether alcohol can be purchased on Sundays for off-premise consumption (e.g. at home). Some have no restrictions Some prohibit entirely Some allow localities to decide
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Sunday Sales Map: 2006 (APIS)
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Background “Blue laws” have been around since
before the Revolutionary war.
Prohibited shopping, working, or consuming alcohol on Sundays.
Enforcement unclear, but strong support around Prohibition era.
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Policy Relevance Since 2002, 12 states have repealed their
bans on off-premise Sunday sales, trying to increase state tax revenues.
Possible unintended effects: What if Sunday sales restrictions do not affect
overall sales/consumption? (e.g. if they simply shift the within-week distribution?)
What if bar goers substitute toward home drinking?
If consumption does increase on Sundays, what if there are negative externalities? (e.g. fatalities)
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Our Question:Do Blue Laws Affect Drinking? We are aware of no empirical evidence
on the effects of these restrictions on alcohol consumption per se.
This is surprising, since the restrictions: are widespread (16 states prohibit SS) are nontrivial (14% of hours of sale) have directly testable implications
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Related Literature - Fatalities McMillan et. al. (2005 AJPH)
Considers New Mexico’s 1995 repeal of its Sunday sales ban.
Finds extremely large fatality increases (42%)
Smith (’78, ’87, ’88a, ’88b, ’90) Uses Australian city/state introduction of
Sunday trading hours, controls for changes in outcomes on other days of the week.
Finds extremely large fatality increases (32-100%).
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Data Requirements For This Study Geographic identifiers & day-specific
alcohol consumption outcomes.
In US: NLAES 1992 (N ~ 40,000) In Canada: NPHS 1994-99 (N ~
57,000) We use the data as repeated cross-
sections to take advantage of large Ontario buy-in in 1996/97
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Cross-Section Drinking Model: OLS Day-specific drinking outcome = + 1X
+ 2(Sunday sales allowed) + 3Z + Jd +
X includes: race, education, sex, marital status, veteran status, employment dummies
Jd are Census division indicators (US only) Z is state ACCRA real beer, wine, and
spirits prices (US only)
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Coefficient is: Sunday Sales OKUS: NLAES 1992
Overall
Wed Thur Fri Sat Sun Mon Tues
Any drinks
.011(.018)
.014(.010)
.011(.010)
-.002(.018)
-.0004(.018)
.030**(.014)
.013(.008)
.015(.009)
Among current drinkers
Any drinks
-- .017(.015)
.015(.01)
-.015(.022)
-.015(.020)
.047**(.021)
.016(.012)
.020(.013)
# days drank in month
-- .055(.037)
.041(.036)
.023(.080)
.037(.067)
.161**(.061)
.057*(.033)
.063*(.032)
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Alternative Model: Any Drinks
Overall
Wed Thur Fri Sat Sun Mon Tues
Sunday sales partly restricted
.002(.025)
.003(.012
)
.002(.012
)
-.021(.026)
-.019(.025)
.022(.019)
.006(.010)
.007(.011)
Sunday sales not at all restricted
.020(.021)
.025**
(.012)
.022*(.013
)
.019(.020)
.021(.019)
.038**(.016)
.021**(.010)
.024**(.011)
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Coefficient is: Sunday Sales OKCanadian NPHS 1994-1999
Overall
Wed Thur Fri Sat Sun Mon Tues
Any drinks
.022***
(.006)
.004(.004)
.004(.004)
.007(.005)
.011(.005)
.031***
(.005)
.008*(.004)
.011**(.004)
Among past week drinkers
Any drinks
-- -.003(.008)
-.004(.008)
-.004(.009)
-.004(.009)
.049***
(.049)
.005(.008)
.011(.008)
# drinks
-.206(.146)
-.009(.026)
.011(.032)
-.094**
(.041)
-.261***
(.048)
.102***
(.035)
.016(.027)
.028(.026)
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Interpreting Cross-Section Results Patterns of coefficients support a causal
effect of Sunday sales restrictions on point in time consumption.
Modest evidence of Monday/Tuesday spillovers & Friday/Saturday substitution.
Estimates consistent with a small but nontrivial effect of Sunday sales on overall population drinking.
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Remaining Unobservables? What if unobserved characteristics about
states are correlated not only with overall alcohol consumption but also day-specific consumption?
Religiosity may be correlated both with the presence of a Sunday sales restriction and lower drinking on Sundays.
Goal: isolate a plausibly exogenous change in Sunday-specific availability.
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Ontario’s policy change Alcohol sales are heavily regulated by the
Canadian provincial governments. In Ontario, off-premise alcohol sales only
available at LCBO’s (not at supermarkets).
Prior to 1997, allowed some Sunday sales at a few Nov/Dec holidays.
After 1997, Sunday sales ok. No other province changed Sunday
alcohol sales policy over this period.
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Diff-in-Diff Drinking Model: OLS Day-specific drinking outcome = +
1X + 2(After 1997) + 3(Ontario) + 4(After 1997 * Ontario) +
X includes: race, education, sex, marital status, employment dummies
Robust standard errors clustered on province.
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Coefficient is: Ontario * After ’97Canadian NPHS 1994-1999
Overall
Wed Thur Fri Sat Sun Mon Tues
Any drinks
.012(.013)
-.00002
(.010)
-.005(.009)
.002(.011)
.004(.012)
.021*(.011)
.008(.009)
.014(.009)
Among past week drinkers
Any drinks
-- -.010(.018)
-.018(.017)
-.006(.020)
-.008(.019)
.031(.020)
.008(.018)
.021(.018)
# drinks
.083(.315)
-.068(.057)
-.035(.061)
-.032(.090)
-.035(.106)
.148*(.086)
-.007(.058)
.113**(.050)
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Interpreting the DD Results Consistent with a causal effect of
Sunday sales restrictions on Sunday alcohol consumption
Modest evidence of effects on overall population drinking
Effect sizes slightly smaller than those implied by cross-sectional results
Relevant subsamples are significant at 5% (prime age adults, females)
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Implications We have not evaluated the overall
costs/benefits of liberalizing Sunday sales policies.
Main benefits are reductions in inconvenience costs.
Modest consumption effects suggest health costs are unlikely to be severe, though this requires more research.
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Next Steps Canadian Community Health Survey
(2001 and 2003), very large samples (100K each)
Fatal Accident Reporting System (FARS) 1992: Do day-specific fatalities mirror our
day-specific consumption patterns? More recently, do repeals of Sunday sales
bans affect day-specific fatalities?
Comments welcome ([email protected])