Almanaque Aprosoja Status of the Brazilian
Soybean Industry
Marcelo Duarte Monteiro
CEO – APROSOJA MATO GROSSO
Brazilian Soybean Growers Association
July 2012
Country 2011/12 2012/13(e)
United States 83.2 83.0
Brazil 65.5 78.0 Argentina 41.0 55.0 China 13.5 12.6
India 11.0 11.4 World 235.9 267.2
USDA
BRAZIL
• 2nd world producer and processor of soybeans
• 2nd world exporter of soybeans, meal and soy oil
• Over 243.000 growers
• 1.4 million jobs
Source: ABIOVE/ APROSOJA
55
83
13
11
World Soybean Production 20012/13 (MM tons)
76
Soybean Production in Brazil
Source: Conab / Aprosoja
40
7,5
28
Brazil Soybean Production 2011/12 (MM Tons)
MW 22%
78%SOUTHSOUTH
MW
48%
47%
NE
5%
SOUTHMW 56%
36%
NE8%
SOUTHMW 61%
28%
NE
11%
SOUTH
1980/81
15.5 MM Tons
1995/96
25.9 MM Tons
2008/09
57.1 MM Tons
2011/12
66.4 MM Tons
Source: Conab
61%
12%
MW 22%
78%SOUTHSOUTH
MW
48%
47%
NE
5%
SOUTHMW 56%
36%
NE8%
SOUTHMW 61%
28%
NE
11%
SOUTH
1980/81
15.5 MM Tons
1995/96
25.9 MM Tons
2008/09
57.1 MM Tons
2011/12
66.4 MM Tons
Source: Conab
61%
12%
Source: Conab / Aprosoja
Soybean Area
Area (MM ha)
Yield (Ton/ha)
Production (MM Tons)
3,5%
-15%
-12%
Brazil – Soybean Production – 2011/12
2,75 2,82 2,82
2,63
2,93
3,12
2,65
00/01 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12
38,4
58,4 60,0 57,2 68,7
75,3 66,4
00/01 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12
14,0
20,7 21,3 21,7 23,5 24,2 25,0
00/01 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12
-35% - 10 mm Tons
Source: Conab / Aprosoja
30%
21%
11%
16%
7%
Soybean Area
State/Region Share (%)
10%
Area (MM ha)
Yield (Ton/ha)
Production (MM Tons)
10%
9,3%
20,2%
Brazil – Soybean Production
2,75
2,93
3,12
2,65
3,12
2,90
2,65
00/01 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13(E)
12/13(E2)
12/13(E3)
14,0
23,5 24,2 25,0 27,5 27,5 27,5
00/01 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13(E)
12/13(E2)
12/13(E3)
38,4
68,7 75,3 66,4
85,8 79,8 73,0
00/01 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13(E)
12/13(E2)
12/13(E3)
Brazilian Soybean Complex
Fonte: ABIOVE; CONAB
Elaboração: APROSOJA
EXPORTS
13,1
OIL
6,8
SOYBEANS66,2
SOYMEAL
26,8 PROCESSING
INDUSTRY
35,3 (53,3%)
DOMESTICCONSUMPTION
13,8
EXPORTS
1,4 TonsEXPORTS
30,0 (45,3%)
DOMESTICCONSUMPTION
5,5
Brazil – Biodiesel Production
B5 B2
Costs of Production Brazil x Argentina x USA
Source: Conab / Agroconsult
2011/12 2012/13* 2011/12 2012/13* 2011/12 2012/13* 2011/12 2012/13*
Seed 140 160 49 38 87 74 84 89
Fertil izer 58 61 45 45 164 121 206 214
Chemicals 41 45 79 79 123 108 138 118
Operations 69 73 133 102 101 90 57 52
Labour 48 49 19 18 180 163 67 67
Other variables 170 132 89 82 80 73
357 388 496 413 745 639 632 612
Depreciation 202 211 152 153 126 112 59 54
Land 336 341 225 158 194 176 176 200
538 552 377 311 320 288 235 254
895 939 872 724 1.065 927 867 866
Total variables
Custos Variáveis
Custos Fixos
BRAZIL (south) BRAZIL (mid-west)US$/HA
ARGENTINA
Total fixed
Total Costs
USA
Resource Optimization through Second Crop:
Two crops harvested in the same season with no irrigation
Soy 2,3
Soy 2,6
Soy 3,1
Corn 6,0
3 X More
Mato Grosso
Total Yield per Year (Tons/hectare) -2012
IMEA/USDA
World
Technology – Two Crops, Same Season
1,8 4,0 Yield Soy+ Corn 2nd (Tons/ha) – Growth of 122% Conab / Imea
Area (MM hectares)
Production (MM Tons Soy + Corn 2nd Crop)
Preserved Area = 30 MM ha
Production (MM Tons Corn 2nd Crop)
Total Production Soybean + Corn 2nd Crop - Brazil
Biotechnology
Biotech adoption rate in Brazil Adoption: 11/12
Source: CÉLERES® | Values as % of total planted area | Values of December 2011
Timeline of biotech approvals in Brazil Medida provisória
Lei Biossegurança
Soja RR Algodão MON531 Algodão LLCotton25 Algodão WideStrike Soja LibertyLink A5547-127 Algodão TwinLink
Algodão RR Algodão Bollgard II Soja LibertyLink A2704-12 Algodão MON88913
Milho RR2 Milho MIR 162 Soja MON 87701 x MON 89788 Milho TC1507 x MON810 x NK603
Milho Bt11 Milho MON 810 x NK 603 Milho Bt11xMIR162xGA21 Milho TC1507 x MON810
Milho GA21 Milho Bt11 x GA21 Milho MON89034xNK603 Feijão EMB-PV051-1
Milho TC1507 Milho TC 1507 x NK 603 Algodão GlyTol Milho MON 89034 x MON88017
Algodão MON 531 x MON 1445 Milho MON88017
Milho MON810 Milho Mon 89034 Milho MON 810 x TC 1507 x NK 603
Soja CV127
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015Anos
Marco
legal
Aprovação
de Eventos
Source: CTNBio | Elaboration: CÉLERES® | Updated in January 20112
Evolution of even registers and average time spent to approval Fonte: CTNBio | Elaboração: CÉLERES® | Dados de janeiro 2012
Biotechnology
Soybean Logistics in Brazil
Short Distances to Port
Source: Centrograos, Caramuru and Soy Transport Coalition, Aug.2010, BCR Rosário
China
Santos, Brazil Sorriso, Brasil
Transportation Costs Benchmarking
Road
US$ 125/Ton US$ 45/Ton
New Orleans, USA Illinois, USA
Barge
US$ 25/Ton US$ 46/Ton
Santos, Brazil Córdoba, Argentina Road
US$ 36/Ton US$ 66/Ton
Source: ANTF / COPPE
Railways
Ports System
Transportation System Benchmarking
Soybean Ports Influence Area and Exports Share
19%
33% 23%
8%
6% 4% 2%
* Soybean exports share Source: Secex. Elaboration: Aprosoja
Ports
• 107 MM ha of Conservation Unitis – 12.5%
60 MM ha – Highly productive land – 7% - (crops fruits,
forestry)
38 MM ha of urbanization and other uses – 4%
198 MM ha of pastureland – 23%
Sources: Minister of Environment- MMA; IBGE – PAM (2010) and Agricultural Census (2006); INPE – TerraClass; Agricultural Land Use and Expansion Model Brazil - AgLUE-BR (Gerd Sparovek, ESALQ-USP). Notes: 1) The data on Conservation Units exclude the areas called Environmental Protection Areas (APAs); 2) The PPAs data include natural vegetation along rivers, hills and top of hills; 3) The data for other natural vegetation areas include Quilombola´s areas, public forests non settled and other remaining natural vegetation areas
554 MM ha native vegetation – 65%
• 103.5 MM ha of Indigenous Reserves – 12%
Land Use in Brazil
Private Farms – 20%-80% Preservation
Legal Reserve
APP (Riparian Vegetation)
Indian Reservation
State Park
National Park
Parks and Indian Reservations
Source: Embrapa
46.4% of the Amazon Biome are State Preservation Areas (Indian Reserves, State
Parks or National Parks)
In our FARMS, riparian Vegetation MUST be preserved PLUS 20-80% of each farm,
depending on where it is located.
Brazilian Environmental Legislation
• Brazil has the largest area
for soybean expansion in
the world – approximately
22 million hectares
• Argentina is the country
with second highest
potential for expansion
• In total, there are seven
South American countries
among the top 20
countries with highest
potential for expansion,
totaling more than 48 MM
hectares of potential
SOYBEAN YIELD Potential Area for Soybean Expansion (MM hectares)
Potential Area for Soybean Expansion
Source: World Bank, Agroconsult
Key Messages
1- South America competitive and with potential
2- Brazil is the major grower with major potential
3- Brazilian logistics needs to be improved
4- High prices and/or better logistics needed to give incentives to farmers to expand
5- The Potential growth is great opportunity for both current and future players
Marcelo Duarte Monteiro CEO