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AK Daily Predictive Services Briefing. Join with:
https://global.gotomeeting.com/join/824605389
Use computer audio or call in: (877) 568-4106
Access Code: 824-605-389# Intro
New Fires in 48 hrs: 0
August Fires : 20
August Fires > 5 ac: 1
July Fires : 48
July Fires > 100 ac: 1
Alaska Tally 2020Last Briefing of 2020!
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Yesterday
Precipitation Lightning
Max Temperature Min RH
Yesterday
~575 strikes
for last 2 days
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Satellite
To get this image, go to:
https://www.weather.gov/afc/satellite
Use Snipping Tool to get an image from the
loop, hit New at about 2 images prior to the
one you want.
Save image as
L:113 Fire weather/Briefing/Images/Sat.jpg
Close this briefing and reopen!
Satellite
Click here for Hi-Res satellite loop!(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.p
hp?region=ak&product=vis-swir)
HClick here for satellite loop!
(https://www.weather.gov/aawu/goesloop?c=ir)
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TodayGFS 500 mb Upper Air (dm)
Surface Wind (kts)
Temperature (F) RH (%)
FFMC Cloud Cover (%)
20
40
80
60
24-Hr Forecast Precip (in)
10
20
30
40
Convective Potential (J)
Today 4 PMH
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Tomorrow
Surface Wind (kts)FFMC Cloud Cover (%)
GFS 500 mb Upper Air (dm)
Convective Potential (J)
Temperature (F) RH (%)
20
40
80
60
24-Hr Forecast Precip (in)
10
20
30
40
Tomorrow 4 PM
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Next Day
20
40
80
60
Surface Wind (kts)FFMC Cloud Cover (%)
GFS 500 mb Upper Air (dm)
24-Hr Forecast Precip (in) Convective Potential (J)
Temperature (F) RH (%)
10
20
30
40
Sunday 4 PM
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Medium
Range
Backup procedure: Go to the following website. Save the
images that most closely correspond to
https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-
parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=GFS&a
rea=ALASKA&ps=model
GFS 500 mb
Medium RangeTuesday 9/1
Wednesday 9/2 Thursday 9/3
Monday 8/31
Model
Confidence
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Fuels &
Fire
Behavior
• ISIs show that spread & ignition potential
are low/moderate statewide; strong winds
in NE Interior raise some potential there.
• DMCs indicate the upper and mid layers
of duff are too wet to carry fire; surface
spread is the likely fire type.
• Spruce Adjective shows only isolated
stations that have any elevated potential,
and at this point in the season, not
enough drying can occur to bring bigger
fuels back to burnable.
Fuels & Fire Behavior
Spruce Adjective Rating
Duff Moisture CodeInitial Spread Index
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Summary
Questions?
Call 907-356-5691
• Long-term Forecast
– Low pressure will remain over
the state, so cool and damp
will dominate most days
– Indices will continue to run
until freezeup.
– Put a fork in it, the 2020
Alaska Fire Season is done.
• Short-term Concerns
– Warm & mostly dry in south
today, while more PM showers
and thunderstorms in
southern & western Interior
– Big fall storm moving in over
the weekend; will bring strong
winds to much of the state
beginning Saturday night
– Chinook in southern Interior
on Sunday into Monday
– Significant rains expected to
begin in Southwest on
Saturday, South Central on
Sunday, progressing north
and east on Monday/Tuesday